Today, rather than comment on the latest developments on the ground, I want to step back and revisit a few basics, but I believe absolutely fundamental aspects of the Russian military operation in not only the Donbass, but the entire Ukraine. In fact, let’s begin here:
What was the generally expected scope of operations?
Okay, there is A LOT of nonsense written about this, so I need to clarify a few basic points.
First, absolutely NOBODY had ANY idea of the actual plan until that plan was decided upon. Let me clarify what I mean. Putin, the Kremlin or the Russian General Staff do not have “a plan”, that is not how things work. The Russian GS in particular is tasked with preparing plans for pretty much ANY contingency. So, let’s imagine that for the case of the Ukraine, they have a choice of 12 possible plans. What then happened is this, after being fully briefed on the situation, Putin, as commander in chief, would select one of these plans and give the order to execute it. At which point a number of coded messages will be sent out to various subunits, units, and formations ordering a specific set of instructions to be opened. These instructions would give their first orders for all subunits, units, and formations involved.
What did the vast majority of analysts expect? Here are a few options:
- Russia would wait for the Ukies to attack the LDNR and then assist the LDNR in ways ranging from indirect, deniable, support to a full-scale Russian move into the LDNR.
- Opinions were split on how far the Russians would go. Personally, I believed that they would probably liberate the Donetsk and Lugansk region, free Mariupol, and then dig in. I was very wrong, to put it mildly.
That operation to “free the LDNR from constant attacks” never happened. Putin never gave that order. That is absolutely crucial to understand.
==>>Again, that order never came.<<==
UNPAs in Croatia, now “Serb free”, thanks to NATO
Instead, and in his own words, Putin came to the conclusion that if the LDNR (possibly assisted by Russia) just moved to the administrative borders, that would open a long front in which Western assistance would be poured in. He also knew that the Ukie forces in the Donbass were highly concentrated, heavily armed and “motivated”, if needed, by many hardcore Nazi groups inside them. In fact, about 60-75% of all Ukrainian forces were poised for a Blitzkrieg attack à la “Operation Storm” which NATO executed against the UN-protected areas (UNPAs) of Serbian civilians in Croatia. According to at least one well-informed analyst, the operation was planned for the 25th of February. If true, that means that Russia merely preempted a Ukrainian attack.
But what is really crucial is not this, what is crucial is the actual order Putin gave to the Russian armed forces. It was NOT “support the LDNR and push back the Ukie lines”. The order Putin gave was totally different:
- Disarm the Ukraine
- Denazify the Ukraine
The first thing to understand is that an operation to deblock the LDNR would have been a mainly tactical level operation, possibly with subsequent operational level development (such as the closing off the Ukie forces in the Donbass cauldron). But both orders say “the Ukraine” not “the Donbass”.
That means, by definition, that the order Putin gave was for a strategic operation, covering the entire territory of the Ukraine.
In other words, all the opinions, expert or not, which were given about what everybody thought would be a tactical-operational Russian intervention on the Donbass were totally wrong (very much including my own!), at the very least wrong in the scope of operations they assumed.
Okay, what about the predicted timelines?
Let’s look at what most observers agreed upon. The general consensus was something along these lines: it will take Russia about 24 hours to turn the Ukrainian Armed Forces into smaller, isolated units and subunits which would not be able to coordinate attacks and force movements. Okay, IN SPITE OF THE FACT that most analysts expected a tactical to operational attack to deblock the LDNR, this part of the “special operation” was fully successful and achieved on time.
Why?
Because that initial standoff strike was a feature common to both plans! Either way, the FIRST thing Russia had to do is to break up the Ukrainian Armed Forces into discrete and separate “chunks”. Again, BOTH plans assumed that, so it is hardly surprising that this is what actually happened.
However,
While a plan aimed solely at unblocking the LDNR could have been crudely summed up as “kill as many Ukronazis as you can, as quick as you can”, that was NOT an option for the strategic level plan chosen by Putin. There are many reasons for that including:
- Russians do not hate Ukrainians and see them as brothers (the LDNR forces not so much)
- Focusing on the destruction of the Ukie forces in the Donbass would leave their lines of supply open
- Focusing on the destruction of the Ukie forces in the Donbass would have left much of the Ukrainian airspace unchallenged, thereby slowing down Russian air and anti-air operations
- While it is pretty clear that Russia wants as many dead Nazis as possible, there are three things which the folks in the Kremlin do NOT want, and wisely so:
-
- Staying in the Ukraine forever (or for a long time)
- Having to police this huge country and restore law and order everywhere
- Pay for all the destruction
For this reason, what the Russians did is make maximal use of their air superiority and mobility, but did not storm all the cities or Ukrainian fortifications.
While there is no doubt in my mind that the Nazis and the bosses in the USA had correctly predicted that the Russian operation to dismember and disorganize the Ukie units would affect the entire Ukraine, including long range strikes deep in the Ukie rear.
What I think they missed is the Russians achieved strategic surprise achieved by immediately launching a full-scale strategic assault. Now let’s revisit the timelines:
- Dismembering and disorganizing the Ukrainian military achieved in the estimated 24 hours
- Closing the operational cauldron behind the Ukie forces in the Donbass: achieved in 2 weeks (in fact, it is even better, the Russians are now cutting the Ukie forces in the Donbass into two smaller cauldrons, see map here: (you see TWO blue circles, not one anymore!)
- Within the same two weeks, Russia liberated the entire Sea of Azov coast and much of the Black Sea Coast, which is now either under Russian control, or under direct Black Sea Fleet blockage.
-
Also within those two weeks, Russia basically encircled Kiev. This map shows you the situation around Kiev as it was today. While the situation on the south side is still unstable, combat operations are taking place, what is certain is this: only small, secondary, roads and open terrain are left to escape the city. Like everywhere else (see below), the Russians have offered humanitarian corridors and promised safety and good treatment to all Ukrainian POWs (Nazis are excluded, as are foreign mercenaries, they will be interrogated and shot). But to no avail, the Nazi delegation cannot agree to anything because their bosses in DC tell them to fight down to the last Ukrainian (as for the Anglos, Polaks & Co. they announce Russian defeats everywhere and every day, but for some unfathomable reason, they all are safely tucked away in Lvov or even Warsaw. How surprising!)
And, again, all that was achieved in TWO WEEKS and WITHOUT numerical superiority!
So to those who are still trying to convince the world that the Russian plan failed and the indomitable Ukronazi forces about to encircle the Kremlin, I ask:
- If you have no idea about modern warfare, why express opinion based on nothing other than frankly silly US PSYOPs and your own, personal, lack of the kind of education needed to speak about these matters?
- If you have some basic understanding of modern warfare, please name a recent operation in which such a huge swathe of land was taken so quickly and by such a small force?
[Sidebar: oh, I know. We recently saw how the entire planet was populated by experienced microbiologists, virologists and epidemiologists, so why not also simply accept that besides being by experienced microbiologists, virologists and epidemiologists they are also experienced tacticians, force commanders and strategists? After all, all you need to qualify is: 1) being unaware of your own ignorance 2) a desire to preach 3) a keyboard and computer. In the Empire of Lies, actual expertise is utterly useless. There is a word in both Russian and Spanish which comes to my mind, and it suggests a strong desire to eat droppings. I will settle for “scatophage” and leave it at that]
Okay, but did the Russians not also have defeats, failures, screw-ups, and other face plants?
OF COURSE they did.
I just came across this one, and I am utterly appalled. The Kremlin says “absolutely no conscripts” as late as yesterday and, voilà, not only conscripts, but even dead ones! BRAVO KREMLIN PROPAGANDA, WELL DONE!
In terms of actual defeats, no, sorry. There were several Ukrainian counter attacks, but they were limited in scope and even when they, for example, obliterated a Russian checkpoint, it was quickly restored and the guilty Ukies ran for their lives under counter-battery fire.
Guys, let’s be serious here.
If there are, roughly, 150k Russians and another 150k Ukrainians fighting each other, there will be blood on both sides. Ask any military person and he/she will tell you that 300+K fully armed soldiers fight each other, you are going to have not hundreds, but many THOUSANDs of dead people on both sides, plus plenty of civilians. In fact, force planners and military analysts even have formulas to calculate it all: numbers engaged, armaments, timing, etc. and, of course, expected casualties.
So the headline “hundreds of dead Russian soldiers” might do miracles for morale in the Empire of Lies and in Banderastan, and it might even frighten a lot of people in Russia, but they will have exactly zero effect on how the operation is being executed by the Russian General Staff.
Guys – the Russian General Staff has planned many such operations for months, possibly even years. And with each plan, they had “estimated losses” entries. That is why Putin, his government and even the Russian generals tried to do everything they could to gain time and to hope for some other solution.
But the Empire of lies gave no other option. Not to the Russians and not to the Ukrainians.
In a way, both sides are fighting for their very existence.
Ukies are not Anglos, and a lot of them gained combat experience during the 8 years of war. Add to this the most powerful PSYOP operation in history, and you will get many MANY Ukrainians fighting really hard, all for different reasons including
- Being a real Russia-hating Nazi (they have no hope for mercy)
- Being a mercenary (they have no hope for mercy)
- Having given an oath to your country and armed forces
- Deep resentment for Russia for many, many reasons
- Protection of your unit and comrades
- Blaming Russia for attacking first and so hard
- Sincerely believing that Russia wants to occupy the Ukraine and recreate the USSR
- etc. etc. etc.
How much is “many” here? I don’t know. But I would say “enough to force Russians to stop expecting being greeted everywhere as liberators“. In some locations, this is true. But in many others, it is not.
In spite of the many warnings by many Russians, including myself and Andrei Martyanov, an ethnogenesis did happen in the Ukraine. The old, historical, Ukraine (which did exist as a prosperous region until 1917) is gone, and so are the generations of Ukrainians which saw themselves as “central-Russians” (the word “small” as in “small Russian” means “central”, like “central Greece) and the “spread-out-Russians” (as in “not in the center) as brothers and liberators. That old Ukraine is gone forever.
What we have instead is a weird and ugly Banderastan where the Nazis are a numerical minority, but where they run everything, courtesy of the Empire of Lies, of course. How bad is it?
One example: Odessa.
If the Odessa of 2022 was inhabited by the kind of folks who lived there before 1917 or even before 1991, by now there would have been an uprising, especially with the Black Sea Fleet within visual range of the city. But after the massacre of scores Russian-speakers in Odessa on May 2nd, 2014 (shot, burned to death, beat up to death, tortured, etc.) and the subsequent total whitewashing of this massacre by the Nazi authorities, something must have snapped in the minds of many residents who clearly gave up hope, and waiting 8 years under Nazi rule is a hell I wish on nobody. So I am not condemning them. They paid a huge price in blood.
But the fact is, as of today, there has been no uprising in Odessa.
And it’s not like Russians are universally greeted as liberators. Yes, there were some touching scenes of reunited families in Mariupol, but I don’t exactly observe big crowds of Ukrainian civilians welcoming the Russians with flowers, bread and salt.
I actually don’t think that Putin or the General Staff misread the situation. In fact, I explain Putin’s obvious reluctance to openly intervene precisely because he knew that “just” liberating the LDNR was not an option anymore and that the entire Ukraine MUST, absolutely MUST, be denazified.
Putin and the GS did not want that, they hoped that somehow the Ukrainian people would find it in themselves to “clean house”.
This did not happen and I don’t see it happening anytime soon (especially with any degree of sincerity).
Conclusion: the Russian PSYOPs in the Ukraine failed miserably.
And not only in the Ukraine.
Russian PSYOPs comprehensively failed. Here are a few examples:
- Russia was not ready for Western cyberattacks, including government servers. That is just a fact.
- The Russian PSYOPs were crushed and obliterated by the most effective and biggest PSYOP in history
- Russian PR even failed INTERNALLY, especially during the first week, when a lot of Russians did fully believe that they would soon have no money, no food and, basically, no nothing. The Kremlin scrambled to fix this by putting a ton of experts on talk shows and by having well-known Russian war correspondents reporting from the front lines. It did help. The figures of support for the special military operation did slowly creep up and roughly 70% or so of Russians support Putin and the operation. But, frankly, the credit here is mostly due to the truly imbecilic nonsense spewed by the Russian 5th column and Atlantic Integrationists in power. They lost the internal political war, but the Kremlin hardly contributed to that.
- The Russians completely failed to explain what made this operation “special”, they failed that inside Russia, in Zone A, and even in Zone B!
So now I have to do it :-(
Okay, let’s begin by what this special operation is not. It is not
- A repeat of WWII or WWI
- A repeat of either/both wars in Chechnia
- A repeat of the Russian military intervention in Syria
- A repeat of the war in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan or any war you can think of
- A full-scale Russian attack
- WWIII (at least until now, that might change!).
Andrei Martyanov coined a very apt expression: “combined arms police operation“.
Combined arms means basically formation-level warfare.
Police operation means just that, the arrest/destruction of criminals.
So a “combined arms police operation” is strictly speaking nonsensical, and that is why Russian military specialists don’t use it. But it is still one I like, because it reveals both the full scope and full dilemma of Russian strategists.
How do you launch a combined arms attack ONLY against criminals and while sparing innocent lives?
The truth is – you cannot.
So here is what the Russians apparently decided:
- Begin with a tactical assault against the Ukie forces in the Donbass
- Bypass all Ukie fortifications and cities which are not willing to surrender
- Develop your tactical assault into an operational one by encircling the ENTIRE Ukrainian force in the Donbass
- Move along the coast to liberate Mariupol (tactical), then continue further west (operational development)
- Clear the Ukrainian skies and quickly achieve air supremacy thereby dramatically reducing the ability of the Nazis to run, the Ukrainians keep their supply lines open.
- Once the skies are safe (not so much from Ukie aircraft, but from their air defenses), fully engage your rotary and fixed-wing aviation for reconnaissance, close air support, move forces, etc.
- Block the main Ukie Nazi centers: Mariupol (combats well inside the city), Nikolaev (combats all around the city), in Kharkov (blocked), Chernigov (blocked), Odessa (almost blocked) and Kiev (almost blocked). Then wait for the city to surrender. For that, the city would have to get rid of the local Nazis first, of course. If they cannot do that, then use specialized urban assault to liberate the city and kill all the Nazis, but their orders should be to save their own lives before saving anybody else. So this implies a very slow and deliberate gradual movement in the depth of the city.
- Next, destroy the long-range artillery which STILL strikes at the LDNR from several locations (Avdeevka). Then blockade the remaining forces and wait for them to surrender. Strongly urge the Ukrainian commanders to avoid a useless carnage and lay down arms. If all else fails, say within a week or so, wipe them out. Literally and quickly: once the entire Ukronazi controlled areas are declared “open fire zones” the really heavy Russian hardware will take less than 24 hours to completely liberate the entire Donbass.
- Then liberate the south first, that is the full Black Sea coast.
- Then begin to move forces towards the general direction of central Ukraine (south of Kiev) and wait for more strategic-level decisions by the Russian General Staff and the Kremlin
Will that work?
Frankly, I am not so sure.
My fear is that the United States and Joe “Biden” have decided that the best thing for them is to have as many dead Ukrainians as possible. And that is not a means to an end, it is the end: have as many Steppe Niggers and Snow Niggers kill each other.
This is the West’s sole and entire plan for the Ukraine: (example from CNN)
I wish I could place any hopes on the people of the Ukraine.
Frankly, I don’t. I think that many decades of joint US and Soviet propaganda (yes, on that they agreed!) following by 30 years of rabid Nazi propaganda, followed by 2 civil wars in the Donbass and a MASSIVE repression against THOUSANDS of people all over the Ukraine broke the spirit of those who have survived it all.
Again, I don’t blame them. I just see them as (mostly) a broken people.
Oh, I still hope and pray for an insurrection liberating the beautiful city of Odessa, but hope dies last: as for prayers, they are never wasted.
Mini Banderastan?
But I am afraid that unless something major changes soon, the “combined arms police operation” will drop its latter goal and become a real combined arms operation to occupy, disarm and denazify the entire Ukraine with the possible exception of the area I call the mini-Banderastan (see map here).
If that decision is taken, then Russia will have to move major reinforcements into the Ukraine. Maybe that can still be avoided, but only if the forces currently surrounding the Ukrainians in the Donbass cauldron (well, the two cauldrons inside the bigger Donbass cauldron, really) are quickly made available.
Russia also needs to DRAMATICALLY increase her air operations NOW, like “yesterday now!”, which might mean moving in larger units (air regiments) into western Russia.
Last, but not least, what about the Empire of Lies?
Yeah, I mean the rumors about volunteer brigades, Polish MiG-29 flying Ukies from NATO bases and all the rest of the crap.
Frankly, here is how I see it: I totally gave up on the West. And by this, I mean two totally different things:
- I gave up on any notion of honor, truth, dignity, courage, compassion, decency or any other little sign of hope from a civilization that has already died and whose last legacy to our planet will be the Empire of Lies and everything that entails. In other words, I assume that the level of evil and corruption of the Western ruling elites (ALL of them, not just politicians) is infinite and there is no such action or idea which would be deemed “too evil” or “too horrible” for these people. My last words about them will be taken from the 1983 Tempelton speech of Alexander Solzhenitsyn: “Before the multitude of those who have perished and who are oppressed today, may God be their judge.“
- I also have given up on any notion of common sense or even on a healthy instinct of self-preservation. It is not that the Western elites are not narcissistic enough to care about their sorry asses, not at all. But they are not smart/educated enough to realize that they are looking at the potential devastation of our planet’s entire northern hemisphere, including all of the USA and UK – nevermind Poland! The Poles think that the Anglos will give them cover and the Anglos think that the Russians don’t mean serious business. That unique combination of cowardice and evil might well bring about the end of our world.
So, to answer the question above: it really does not matter what the folks in Zone A think.
It makes for great headlines from the terminally “presstituted” press and it makes some TV watching zombies feel triumphant.
For me, this means this: while I hope to continue to write analyses about this war, I am now officially done debunking the many idiocies still spread by the Western PSYOPs.
What I wrote above is my version of a mini crash course on basic military realities, almost 3500 words, and I am now sure that:
- Those who ‘got it’ get it and don’t need the repetition
- Those who did not ‘get it’ won’t
- And the ratio of those who ‘get it’ to those who don’t make no difference at all
Why?
Because Russia already won the military war and because Russia already lost the PR war.
Okay, I just wrote this in one shot, over 3800 words of analysis, and I am too tired to edit it, and I am going to take a few hours off.
Cheers
Andrei
PS: It took me 4 hours, and I wrote it all in one shot. So it is probably very poorly written. Sorry!!!!
PPS: I friend from Russia pointed out to me that Putin did specifically mention the protection of the LDNR as a goal. He is correct, that was the POLITICAL reason given by Putin, but his MILITARY orders clearly when far beyond that limited political objective.
It was anything but poorly written, Andrei.
It was, in fact, profoundly, well written.
*bow*
Very sensible analysis. Thanks for your work.
Russia’s lost the information war – a constant complaint. Of course, it has; it could hardly be otherwise, because even the output volume is nowhere near similar. Besides, the West, a defender of free speech as it is, blocked almost all Russian sites, the whole domains, in fact. So, regardless what Russia says, nobody in the West would hear it. I’ve been listening lately to an excellent RT-related Spanish language U-tube channel “Ahí les Va” aimed at the Latin America – blocked. So much for the zone B.
I’ll tell you a joke popular in Russia: Two Russia tank commanders are drinking coffee on the Champs Élysée, their tanks parked nearby. One says to the other: “Too bad we have lost the information war”.
There are multiple versions of the joke, featuring Unter Den Linden or ruins of Washington.
It’s based on an old soviet joke.
Two soviet tank commanders look out across the Rhine river, towards France on the other side. One looks up towards the empty skies. He asks the other one, “I wonder who won the air war?”
Still funny though.
Colonel Cassad daily brief.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7486757.html
Briefly on Ukraine. 10.03.2022
( Свернуть )
1. Mariupol. The clean-up continues. Advance in the northern and eastern parts of the city. Mangush is blocked. The sweep of Volnovakha continues. Most civilians are held hostage by the Nazis and are their consumables for various provocations.
2. Zaporozhye. The Russian Armed Forces to the east of Gulyaipole are advancing towards Novaya Novoselka and Ugledar. From the direction of Novotroitskoye, the DPR forces are pressing to the north. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have two options here: either turn to Ugledar, or fight their way through Velyka Novoselka to the Donetsk-Kurakhovo-Zaporozhye highway, with a further offensive on Krasnoarmeysk.
3. Raisins-Balakliya. Having repelled the counterattacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces began to move in the direction of Chuhuiv and the eastern outskirts of Kharkov, with the aim of blocking the city from the east. It is also worth noting the strikes in the area of Lyubotyn to the west of the city. It is not yet clear where the Izyum group will move further in the context of the movement on the communications of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
4.Kyiv. Fighting continued to the west and east of Kiev. Brovary is still under the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but there is a movement of mechanized columns to the south and south-west – the troops, in fact, flow around the fortified area of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and seek to further cover Kiev, in order to completely block it.
5. Kryvyi Rih — Nikopol. Having put up barriers to the north of Nikolaev, the Russian Armed Forces over the past day have seriously advanced in the direction of Nikopol. Control over it should be secured by the ZNPP, as well as to cut the Zaporizhia-Nikopol-Kryvyi Rih highway.
6. Odessa. No major changes. Russian ships carried out kalibr launches near Odessa, which were mistaken for shelling Odessa. “Calibers” were launched at the airfield near Kryvyi Rih. The Armed Forces of Ukraine plan to undermine the remaining bridges from Transnistria in the near future in order to prevent the hypothetical use of Russian troops deployed in the PMR.
7. Severodonetsk-Lisichansk. Fighting continues in the agglomeration area, but there is no direct assault on the cities yet. Rubezhnoye is also still under the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Fighting is still ongoing in the Popasna area.
8. Donetsk-Gorlovka. No significant changes. At the front, trench warfare continues here with the active use of artillery. Along the way, the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue their senseless shelling of Donetsk and other cities and towns.
9. Nikolaev. The city is already quite densely enclosed. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are waiting for an assault, but the Russian Armed Forces are still limited to blocking the city.
10.Chernihiv — Sumy. No significant changes. The fuss with humanitarian corridors continues.
As expected, the talks between Lavrov and Kuleba did not lead to results. The CBO continues. The Zelensky regime is still not ready to accept the required conditions, which causes both the continuation of the operation and the growing “Syrianization or Idlibization of Ukraine.”
Transaction in Ukraine as usual in Telegram – https://t.me/boris_rozhin (who is interested, subscribe)
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Lone Wolf
Warning: Graphic content.
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/7486694.html
Ukraine 2022 in one photo.
This is not Photoshop, not a fake and not a fiction of Russian propaganda. If anything, here’s another video https://t.me/boris_rozhin/30553
The footage was filmed in the territories controlled by Zelensky’s gang. Of course, it is impossible to come up with such a “magnificent composition” on purpose.
I wouldn’t be mistaken if I assumed it would become a meme.
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Lone Wolf
Let’s all get something straight here.
First:
Russia has near twice the land area of the United States, 6.6 million sq miles verses 3.5 million sq miles.
Russia has less than half the population of the United States.
They don’t need more area. They’re trying to figure out how to develop what they have!
Second:
There is a pro-American stain in Russian culture that goes back to Peter the Great. We both had the same enemy, The City of London. Russia posted ships off both of our coasts during the civil war to prevent an English-French invasion. A Russian edition of Alexander Hamilton’s 1791 Report on
the Usefulness of the Manufactories in Relation to Trade and Agriculture was published in St. Petersburg in 1807. In 1809, the young John Quincy Adams arrived as American Minister Plenipotentiary to Russia, where he had long talks with the tsar about the protection of neutral ship ping and how to limit British power on the high seas. When Count N.P. Rumyantsev, the Russian chancellor, was ousted from power in 1813 he told Adams, “I could say that my guts are American; and were it not for my age and infirmities, I would go now to that country. ”
Third:
In 2007 the Russian Government revived the 150-year-old proposal for a Bering Strait rail tunnel once again, with Putin even offering to pay 2/3 of the $65 billion estimated cost to construct the 100 km tunnel across the Bering Strait. The Lt Governor of Alaska attended a meeting in Russia concerning the idea. Of course, it hasn’t gone anywhere.
Here is the crying shame conclusion:
While I believe the global corporatist’s attempt at regime change in Russia via Ukraine will ultimately fail, their 150-year-old goal of preventing a USA-Russian economic alliance has been strengthened. Close your eyes and imagine such an alliance. It is mind boggling. That is why I always say, “ Putin doesn’t want to fight us, he wants to do business with us”! I believe Putin and crew are of that old pro-US strain.
Some other poster a few days ago pegged U.S. hostility toward Russia as starting around World War I. I guess we could trace it more closely to the establishment of the Federal Reserve in 1913.
I don’t find it surprising or disappointing that there is no uprising in Odessa. They have been put down so hard they just keep their heads down.. Lots of Nazis going after any dissent.
I have never commented on this or any other blog.
But I can’t help but think that the western sanctions and PR stupidity were maybe an intended consequence of Russia’s invasion.
I think there maybe a plan by China and Russia supported by Zone B to torpedo the current world monitory system decupling Zone B form Zone A and this but the first salvo.
Your analysis of Western Elites is spot on. The cultural rot that has set in among Western Elites is truly staggering. There is however the prospect of this being reformed. It has happened before. There are growing populist movements which may yet throw off the corruption, lies and perversions of the Elite Establishment. The November elections in the US will be interesting as will of course, the next presidential elections. It will take time to fix, but there is the prospect of pluralism, professional standards, and rational domestic and foreign policy returning to the Western countries. The pendulum always swings back eventually.
Who knows as the Globalists are pushed out of power, perhaps we will even get leadership again which understands that Russia is if not a natural ally then at least not an enemy. Unlike the Soviet Union, it harbors no ambition of global dominance. Its foreign policy is guided by rational self interest – as was common with all Western countries before the last generation.
For the November elections to be successful, it is absolutely essential to ruthlessly police the Republican Party in state primaries and try to weed out neocon RINOs. And one more essential criterion for being a neocon RINO is hostility toward Russia.
Andrei I’m surprised at your despondency. I don’t think it’s justified. Believe me everything’s going to work out fine with Ukraine. The Russians are not naive about the average Ukrainian. Basically the Russians are going to treat Ukraine with tough love. Ukraine allowed itself to be used as an anti-Russian battering ram and so Russia understands this and will have a caring but hard nosed realistic policy towards them. You mention that once Ukraine is de-nazified that Russia should get the hell out of there. I completely disagree with this. No way will this happen. A down sized Russian military force will be in Russia permanently not only guarding the borders (may also include western Ukraine) but on formerly Ukrainian military bases all over the country. Once the nazis are thrashed and the situation stabilizes then Ukrainian police will do their policing inside of all the cities. A very small Ukrainian military will be formed and be totally Russified along with a revamped SBU which will also be Russified. Ukraine will not be neutral but will have the same relations with Russia as Belarus does. You can take that to the bank. I agree that there will be a lot of resentment towards Russia but so what. A beaten down Ukraine is not going to rise up against Russia and support Nazis. No no no. I think as long as life returns to normal for the average Ukrainian then that’s all that matters. Police will go on policing, bakeries will go on baking, students will go on studying, and so forth. But crucially the nazis and the oligarchs such as Kolomoisky won’t be on the peoples’ backs anymore and assholes such as Poroshenko and Timoshenko won’t suck the money out of Ukraine anymore. So the average Ukrainian just by this alone will begin to prosper. Any support by any segment of the Ukrainian population to support ultranationalistic and Nazis will be punished and made an example of by a revamped Russian influenced security force along with a Russian influenced SBU. The average Ukrainian won’t even notice a difference and won’t even have any contact with the Russian security services. The average Ukrainian won’t have any contact with Russians so resentment will be minimal.
Ukraine will become a federation along the lines of Russia. Their provinces are called the same names as in Russia, oblasts so this should not be a problem. Ukraine will be cut up into various autonomous oblasts or republics. I can see the area from Transistria, through Odessa all the way along the Black Sea /Azov Sea and up north to LDNR as being the Novorussia Ukrainian Autonomous Republic (NUAR). LDNR won’t need to be a separate nation but now can be part of the NUAR. The rest of the area including Kharkov, Dniepr and the rest of the region east of the Dneiper River can be its own autonomous republic. The Kiev and central Ukraine will have its own autonomous republic. I won’t even comment on western Ukraine but hey why not an autonomous republic for them also. Or just carve up western Ukraine between Hungary, Romania and Poland.
Wow! I’m speechless. The shroud of evil has been lifted
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1502036658979495940
@ Nightvision
Lifted and refocused on Russia.
The ideological nazification is massive, an integral part of the dying phase of capitalism. It is happening everywhere in different degrees and manifestations. In the US, white supremacy is one of them, now in vogue and legitimized thanks to Trump and the right-wing media, Fox Moooos, et al. In Eurostan nazification is massive among white youngsters, the new fad with a heavy anti-immigrant slant.
Social networks “ideology” is the bottom line, they will go with the flow. Kill Russians the new fad? Money talks.
———————————-
Lone Wolf
You appear to be quite ignorant about the status of “white supremacy” in the U.S. “White supremacy” is a complete bogeyman that serves as a handy target for official hate, basically like Russia and Russians do in Ukraine.
It’s the Black Lives Matter / Antifa left that have government protection and are the de-facto brownshirts of the Biden regime and Democrat party. They’re basically the equivalent of Ukraine’s Nazis, except for the fact they haven’t started slaughtering “deplorables”, although they did billions of dollars of damage to cities in 2020. “White supremacists” would be the equivalent to whatever Ukraine’s Nazis call the DPR and LPR.
There are a small number of actual Nazis, like Richard Spencer… and they actually endorsed Biden and the Democrats, and despised Trump.
The only “white supremacists” in the U.S. are affluent liberals and democrats
@ Nightvision
I see your night vision seems to get blurred when it comes white supremacy.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/rise-far-right-extremism-united-states
https://www.factcheck.org/2019/03/the-facts-on-white-nationalism/
White supremacy is a middle to working class phenomenon among supporters of right-wing ideologies, more commonly found among Trumpers lately, but in general among those who come from the right side of the aisle. III Percenters, Oath Keepers, Proud Boys, all carry the combo white supremacy/nazi ideology.
Lone Wolf
Lone Wolf… Csis.org? Factcheck.org? You are using sources from the Empire of Lies to back up your opinions about “white supremacy”? Can’t you step back and think a little about what you’re doing?
@ Prof. Spudd
I can step back enough to ignore you completely.
Go on calling names, it that makes you feel superior.
It’s a nazi thing, eh?
Waste of time.
Lone Wolf
@ Prof. Spudd
,“…It’s the Black Lives Matter / Antifa left that have government protection and are the de-facto brownshirts of the Biden regime and Democrat party…”
You called me an ignorant, then you make a typical white supremacist statement. Guess I touched a pro-Nazi nerve. Being a Nazi is not an ethnic issue, Japanese believed they were a chosen people, a superior race. Nazism is an ideology, commonly found among whites who believe in their race superiority, and see a threat when other ethnic groups rise up for their rights. Like in your case.
Lone Wolf
Lone Wolf, I’ll just say that you are exactly as willfully ignorant about the situation in the U.S. as the typical American is about Russia and the situation in Ukraine and the Donbass, it’s just the mirror image.
That’s all.
@ Prof. Spudd
A Nazi/white supremacists characteristic is to believe everybody else is an ignorant, but themselves. Any radical, right-wing, left-wing, lives in the delusion they own the truth. They see life in black & white. Let’s say, mostly white. :-)
Lone Wolf
Quite fun to read the replies to that Reuters tweet, 95% shocked, and negative.
@Nightvision | So it turnsout everythings weaponized, even face book. Not surprised.
Makes you wonder wheter there is any connection between todays events and the recent (2019) Chernobyl Movie. The sudden idea of refreshing peoples memories about the event. Part of the game I guess.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_(miniseries)
Buddy, cool write up . I’m from eastern Poland and this point of view is basically non existent here(only heroic Ukrainians destroy evil Putin all the time and everybody’s supporting Ukraine in every way possible), what you can get from tv is Russia getting smashed hard(guess it’s like that in most European countries since these TVs are very similar). Mom told me I’ll go to jail :). Long writeup so i lost some points but most important – do you think Putin can be on the agenda here?
may I introduce
gixie_beauty
https://apolut.net/russland-bombardiert-eine-geburtsklinik/
@ Zivilist
Great catch.
gixie_beauty is not so beautiful, a bad actress on top. They are producing thousands of videos like this one to be released in the next few days, as Russian/LDNR troops tighten the circle around the Nazis. It was clearly demostrated it was not an air strike, it was made to look as such. Mr. Martyanov explained in detail the aftermath of an airstrike explosion, the expansive waves would have taken the hospital walls down.
Lone Wolf
Very nice commentary, thank you.
My only point of disagreement is, that in general, you put way to much emphasis in PYSOPS. That really doesn´t matter much in the long term. In the case of the war in Ukraine, people are already coming out from under it in places like the EU and especially in the US. Oh you have your drones, people who are in panic mode. But, those that support it will be hard pressed to maintain the grip within weeks.
People also do not remember, especialy when they are not involved. Want to talk about horror, how about the napalming of Tokyo? It was a very large city, constructed many of light wooden homes and other structures, that was literally barbacued. How about Dresdin? Some punk on a keypad can scream all they want about the inhumanity going down in Ukraine now and frankly, it ain´t nothin´. One thing about munitions, once they start downrange, everything is an opened end question.
Saker, don´t worry too much about the PSYOPS. BS by nature is weak, never wins the day because it is BS and never fairs well in the heavy rain storm of reality. I think we have months more of this stuff so, don´t let it get to you. Russia is holding it´s return fire on the sanctions and is bound to cut loose sooner than later. That is going to sweep away a lot of the crap. Plus the elections are here and much of the noise is related to that. Change is coming. My best to you.
No doubt the Russians realized that the israeloamericans would go completely bonkers once they entered the ukraine. The things went completely bonkers trying to take out China with their covid-19 biowarfare. The economic meltdown, from both the attacks on Russia and China on the usa is nothing I’ve seen in my lifetime. 50%+ inflation in 2 years? Especially hitting in the last few months?
Seen a lot of repetition of the saying that “america attacks Russia using the ukrainians”, but it is israel attacking Russia fanaticly using their colonial proxies. And as usual, pretending to be somewhat disinterested officially.
Thank you Peter for the excellent information. I am impressed with how you represent yourselves. You have made sense and there is right reason for all action taken. God bless you, your leaders and your country.
PS–Everything you feel about those most vile and narcissistic elites is so. Based on near-term history anyway, this type of Anglo/American robber Barron, has given this planet generations of poisonous scum. They care for nothing and love no place. But can always be found where they can exploit people and resources.
Ukrainian Drone crashes in Zagreb last night (350 miles from Ukraine). fortunately it crashed in a big park by the river.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44697/ukrainian-tu-141-strizh-missile-like-drone-appears-to-have-crashed-in-croatia
NATO air defense is a leaky sieve, i.e. it de facto does not exist !
“The drone that crashed in Croatia arrived from the airspace of Hungary, and there – from Romania,” the Croatian Prime Minister said.
“Northern Wind – 3/2022”
Russia introduces volunteer detachments (“vacationers”, “tourists”, PMCs, … 25th Siberian Federal District / “Tiger Forces”, “Hunters for ISIS”, “Hezbollah” and “IRGC)))))))
Meeting with permanent members of the Security Council
Vladimir Putin held an operational meeting with the permanent members of the Security Council via videoconference.
March 11, 2022, 11:15, Moscow, Kremlin
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67960
…
Vladimir Putin: …
As for gathering mercenaries from all over the world and sending them to Ukraine, we see that they do not hide, the Western sponsors of Ukraine, the Ukrainian regime, do not hide, they do it openly, ignoring all the norms of international law. Therefore, if you see that there are people willing on a voluntary basis, especially not for money, to come and help people living in the Donbass, well, well, you need to meet them halfway and help them move to the war zone. This is the first.
Second. As for the supply of weapons, especially Western-made, that fell into the hands of the Russian army, I, of course, support the possibility of transferring them to the military units of the Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics. Please do it. If you need any solutions here at my level, please, I’m ready.
And the third question, concerning the strengthening of the western borders of the Russian Federation in connection with the actions that are being taken in this direction by NATO countries, as if in response to what they are doing, this requires separate consideration. Please prepare a separate report and report back. Based on the results of its discussion, we will make an appropriate decision in the near future.
Thanks.
Let’s move on to the current issue, to the issue on the agenda.
…
Probably, Transcarpathia will be cleared by the 1st mountain brigade of the Hussites and the 3rd
foothill – Hamas. )))
It is a religious war, of course. The Jews who control the entire West support the Catholic Uniates against the Orthodox. The Italians and the Jews have been best friends ever since they joined together to crucify the savior.
The vast majority of the world’s Catholics are now in fact Protestants, and have been since the Protestant Reformation took over the Catholic Church at the Second Vatican Council in the 1960s. (The Anglican Reformation in England under Elizabeth I in the 1560s was a test-run four hundred years earlier.) So it’s essentially a Protestant-Orthodox religious war. They may “identify” as Catholics, but we know what “identify” means these days. :-)
Andrei – Wtf is a Nazi? Its use in modern discourse is childish and reflects a laziness of the mind. You can do better.
No, he’s right, there are literal Nazis in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONKn4Rt_XUA
Thank you. The only real solution would apparently be for the Empire of Lies to be rapidly taken down from within – and of that, short of some fantasies still being perpetrated within the US, there is little hope.
There is no war. There is just the management of logistics on the ground and the theatre of war in the media. All elites are conniving at this handing over of Ukraine to Russia. It is all kabuki. TheSaker’s “fronts” and “cauldrons” are will-o-the-wisps akin to the Covid nonsense we had to endure for two years. Right on cue, the volume of covid lies is turned down and our elites give us another East vs West production, with “The Saker” playing his part. You are all too arrogant to even consider you’re being fooled by ALL our elites, e.g. the Ukrainian elites are conniving at the displacement of their own people.
Until we accept that all political authority is bogus and just serves an ancient, international elite class then you’ll continue to swallow the garbage of all media, including so-called alternative sites. Tis all bollocks but now you cannot say no-one tried to warn you. There is no invasion or “special police action”, just the elites playing in their sandbox — this World — and liars selling the lies as reality. I pray some of you wake up because one day these veils of deception have to be removed from our eyes. It is necessary.
Italian truckers declare “force majeure” over fuel prices and will stop all activities from the coming Monday.
No deliveries, no food, no fuel.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/italian-truckers-declare-force-majeure-over-gas-pains-halt-deliveries-starting-monday
Russia may be reserving its plan for NATO and US, Russia could be thinking sooner or later it may have to confront the NATO on its border, so it is likely to hold its best plans and resources for that scenario,
Don’t beat yourself up. It wasn’t poorly written, except maybe the pps, where you succinctly, albeit clumsily, laid out all of Putin’s intent. Your exhaustion is palpable but so is your conviction that the Russian military is persevering in its mission, eroding and exhausting the resistance of Ukraine’s forces. The mill grinds at an excrutiating pace, but the result will be fine.
You were very thorough, but then I’m one of those who got it all from the first shot fired. So I don’t count; I’m in the choir.
What you need is an editor; but who has that luxury, right? Here’s my solution, but it won’t suit you, because not only does it get on your last nerve, but it’s time consuming and labor-intensive:
Blah-blah and so on. God, I wish I never read that damn book! It was forced on me in a preparatory class for writing papers at a university level; meant to ease the life of professors, no doubt, so not to be subjected to undisciplined high school composition.
Now, every time I dare write somethin; there’s Solzhenitsyn breathing down my neck to get it just right. What a curse!
So forget it; just do you. It’s interesting and all there, and that’s what matters. The NYTIMES with all its proofreaders and editors can’t get it straight.
V kruge pervom…is a great book, your soul is just too shallow, mind materialised. Check Rakovij korpus!
The information war has been lost in the brainwashed minds of the Western masses but this “loss” still serves a purpose.
Connect the dots… The mayor of Kiev announced that Kiev was already half-empty.
The “lost” information war makes the West welcome Ukrainian refugees with open arms like never before. Only a little over two weeks ago, Ukrainians found it hard to get Western visa, now… they cross the border after a few hours of wait. Once they have made it to Western Europe, every Ukrainian gets a hero’s welcome, is showered with gifts. Tens of thousands make room in their houses and apartments for them. Two million Ukrainians have already fled.
The West cannot retreat from the position that it has gained in the information war that it “won”.
It will make the West take in unlimited numbers of refugees. There will be a strong suction effect on Ukraine. Is that the reason why Russia is not attacking phone services and the internet in Ukraine? Mobiles and the internet allow refugees to tell those who stayed behind how marvellous the West is.
Yes, we have to be cynical about the special operation in Ukraine. The question is often asked, what shall Putin do with Ukraine after he has won the war? Ukraine without Ukrainians, that’s the answer.
What you said about refugees is a lot of truth. Polish government is even paying money per person(250-300eur/month, renting a room around 150eur). Maybe that’s a big point of this operation, to empty Ukraine for some new inhabitants.
I agree with the Saker’s comments on Russian strategy and tactics. This war will proceed cautiously until the Nazis are cornered and all the power plants and pipelines are secured. The first strategic goal was achieved with the complete destruction of Ukraine’s air and sea power. It’s amusing to hear Zelenskiy demand a no-fly zone. Ukraine has a no-fly zone; it’s owned and operated by Russia. The second strategic goal is in sight: cutting Ukraine off from the sea. Number #3: surrounding Ukraine’s cities east of the Dnieper River. Number #4: cutting Ukraine in two by driving north and south along both banks of the Dnieper.
Napoleon: ‘The army marches on its stomach.’
As for untrained volunteers flooding into the war: great. Thank you for providing a target rich environment. These violent racists won’t be killing anyone elsewhere. The lies currently filling their mouths will be replaced by earth and worms. The idea the most corrupt failed nation on Earth could manage a war is laughable. Wars are fought and won based on logistics: on supply, training, and timely movement of troops. Ukrainian defence is designed to protect Swiss bank accounts. The Russian offensive is designed to interrupt all three of these absolutely necessary military acts. Logistics have never more important than recently as weapons are more complex, vastly more expensive, and incredibly destructive. This has slowed research, development, and serial construction to the point wars will now be fought with weapons on hand until exhaustion compels defeat and surrender.
Bertrand Russell: “The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt.”
Not so fast , Saker . You missed smth.
Putin’s calling for the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine. He’s calling for its “de-communization” too.
( better, I’ll copy some words).
”As a result of Bolshevik policy Soviet Ukraine arose which even today can with good reason be called ‘Vladimir Ilyich Lenin’s Ukraine.’ He is its author and architect. This is fully confirmed by archive documents also including Lenin’s decrees regarding adding the Donbass to Ukraine. And now grateful descendants have demolished monuments to Lenin in Ukraine. This is what they call de-communization. Do you want de-communization? Well, that suits us just fine. But why stop halfway? We are ready to show you what real de-communization means for Ukraine.”
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/03/14/russia-is-slaying-the-khazarian-mafia-in-ukraine/
Thanks for news from the Kremlin’s view. After RT’s more impartial news was banned, mainstream multimedia outlets in USA spewed the same propaganda. that told us WHAT to think rather than facts by unbiased reporters on ground.
I still do not trust either Russia or Western multimedia for facts.
I don’t give a damn about alleged NAZIs in Ukraine. But I do give a big damn about Russians in Eastern Ukraine and about ordinary working Ukrainians everywhere in Ukraine.
Are evil oligarchs in both western and in eastern ukraine responsible for the conflict?
If so, why cannot Ukrainians in all sections of Ukraine expel the oligarchs and prosper.
I had hoped that the special status requested by Donbass be extended to local rule for all areas of Ukraine and less rule from a central government. Same hope for Russia for local rule.
Andrei – I agree with your analysis of western leadership entirely. As a US citizen I am more concerned we will have a civil war than a nuclear confrontation with Russia. The elites in this country are completely without the capacity for reasoned argument. It has become so bad here that the Biden administration knowing they are unpopular is attempting to “end around” our constitution and declare descent and the free exercise of political speech a treasonous act. The crazed left have taken to threatening conservative members of our supreme court by protesting out side their homes which is a federal felony. Instead of chastising these crazy loons our “Department of Justice” refuses to arrest and prosecute any of the people involved. Biden has crated chaos and shortages in our economy all while trying to blame Putin as the cause of his destructive domestic policy. I personally expect the mid terms will be flooded with so many illegal votes that it will lead to open confrontation and riots.