It is with an immense and heartfelt THANK YOU! to “BM” for his translation that I have the real privilege to share with you this translation into English of the excellent article of worldcrisis.ru I mentioned in my previous post. This is, in my opinion, the most complete and well-written analysis of the apparent Russian “passivity” and we all owe “BM” a big debt of gratitude for making it available to us on such short notice. I especially encourage you all to circulate this translation as it is by far the best explanation of the Kremlin’s policy.
The Saker
PS: I was also sent a link to this article http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=127 with an interesting description of the condition of the Ukrainian army. Also a must read imho.
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Why there is no Russian military intervention in the Ukraine
The level of analytical discussions on the Russian Internet is perfectly described by the political scientist Simon Uralov: “To consider that the Ukrainian crisis set off only the minds of the Kievan colleagues and turned them all into bloodthirsty hysterics is fundamentally mistaken. Among the Moscow colleagues there is also an incredible number of such.” The purpose of this material is to take a step back from the hysteria and coldly analyze the situation in Ukraine.
I’ll start with the necessary clarifications on several emotionally important topics:
Why is there no Russian military intervention?
If this text was written a few days earlier, a significant part of it would had to have been devote to explaining why sending troops to Ukraine was inappropriate and just plain stupid even after the referendum. Fortunately, the head of the resistance ibn Slaviansk, Igor Strelkov, coped with this task better than I: in his video message, he very clearly described the inertness of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk in terms of real action to protect their interests against the junta. Anticipating the arguments about the referendum, I hasten to say that a check mark on the ballot is certainly cool, but not much different from any hipster-white-ribboned (belolentochnyh) attempts “carry mode” – the “like” on Facebook. Because a “like” handle made in the bulletin doesn’t change anything. The referendum was a necessary but not sufficient action.
How much was the Kremlin prepared for events in Ukraine and how much does it improvise even now?
I advise you to read the telegram’s Wikileaks: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html , in which it is shown that Kremlin clearly pointed out to the Americans in 2008 the scenarios that we see today: “Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”
It is logical to assume that such a development for the Kremlin was not a surprise and that we are now in even more unpleasant but less nuanced script that something like “Plan E”.
In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, let’s formulate objectives:
– Do not allow the entry of Ukraine into NATO.
– Do not allow the establishment and stabilization in Ukraine of a Russophobic regime, which assumes denazification.
– Do not allow the genocide of Russian South-East population.
Ideally this requires implementation of all three objectives while, in that interval, not breaking the Russian economy during its reorientation toward Asia and, at the same time, preventing the Americans from pulling off their economic ends at the expense of the EU.
How can these goals be realized?
Let us consider the simplest scenario and see what are the vulnerabilities and negative consequences:
So, the Russian army enters Ukraine and a few days later comes to Kiev, then captures all of Ukraine. “Patriots” are jubilant, there are parades on the Khreschatyk, etc.
It seems that all three goals have been achieved, but the following problems emerge:
1. In the EU, where the European business elite has slowly pressed on the feet of their politicians and stamped on the brakes with regard to sanctions, the “war party” (a/k/a “The Party of the United States”, or rather “Party Pax Americana») clearly triumphs. Against the Russian Federation, the maximum of real sanctions cut in with terrifying effect principally for the European economy themselves, which immediately falls into a recession. But nothing to rejoice about.
Against this background, the Americans easily force the signing of their version of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, a trade pact, which turns the EU into an appendage of the U.S. economy. Negotiations about the treaty are going on right now and, for the Americans, the entry of Russian troops in Ukraine would be a huge gift. Sanctions against Russia would destroy European business and trade barriers with the U.S. would finish it. What we have at the end: EU in a state as if after a war; the United States, all in white, joyfully absorbing European markets on which they have not and will not have competitors; the Russian Federation – not in the best shape. Does it seem to anyone that someone in this situation is the fool (лох), and that that someone is clearly not the U.S.? By the way, it is not necessary to take into account the arguments to the effect that European politicians would not allow economic suicide. Euro-bureaucrats are not capable even of this, as practice shows.
2. Besides the fact that the Kremlin will render a service to Washington, we need to look at what will happen to Russia itself.
• If the sanctions cut against Russia before the gas mega-contract for 30 years with China is signed, then China will be able to negotiate a price from a position of strength. In fact, from a position of blackmail (This shows in China’s comportment, however, but not clearly).
• If the sanctions are imposed against Russia before the oil mega-contract with Iran is initialled, through which Rosneft will be able to control an additional 500,000 barrels of oil per day, Iran will be able to negotiate a price froma position of strength.
• All subsequent attempts to build something up even to the delivery of imports we need now, will be very, very expensive.
• If sanctions cut in before the signing of the agreement on the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Community, imagine what trumps Lukashenko and Nazarbayev will have to twist Putin’s arms at negotiations. A little more of this, and Moscow, in order to create the EurAsEC, will have to pay for its oil.
3. The Russian Federation would have to assume the responsibility for the restoration of the Ukrainian economy and denazification: where to get the needed number of “denazifiers” in “dusty helmets” (if anyone has forgotten, according to Okudzhava, it was the commissars in dusty helmets that bent over the dead hero of the Civil War) to fight compact groups of Ukrainian Nazis, which will enjoy support and supply from abroad. On aggregate, it is clear that this scenario greatly benefits the United States and China. Russia remains a deep sense of moral satisfaction, economic issues and future curses of the “generous” (щирых) Ukrainians who are unhappy with “life under occupation.”
How are the key points in time our vulnerabilities laid out?
1. Gas contract with China – May-June (May 21 signed!)
2. Oil contract with Iran in summer (That’s why the U.S. lifted the embargo, as Rosneft is very tightly seated under BP and not very under Exxon Mobil. Where does the oil flows? To China).
3. Important! Elections to the European Parliament, which will get a lot of votes Eurosceptic allies of Russia. After the election, will be assembled Evrokommissii different composition which will be much easier to work with – May 25. Even more important! Gas contract signed with China, newly elected deputies will be more amenable to South Stream.
4. Collection of all relevant documents/permits/etc., for construction of South Stream – May.
This is what is visible to the naked eye, but there are other aspects that are very important, but which are difficult to place clearly on a timetable:
1. Transition to settlements in rubles for energy. Oil and gas are not potatoes: they (are provided under) long-term contracts that cannot be altered unilaterally but require lengthy work to replace them with new ones, plus the change in current ones.
2. Transition to quoting prices in rubles for energy (for trading in rubles) on the Russian markets – it is absolutely hellish work though, if only because up until now no one has ever done anything like it.
3. Own payment system
4. Preparation of import substitution or improvement of our work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode).
The list can and should continue, that’s what I see, and the Kremlin is much broader horizons.
Now add interesting initiatives of the Russian Foreign Ministry, which is not sitting idly by with its hands folded. For example, Vice Minister Karasin was in Doha on May 6 and met with all the Qatari elite. The results, in my opinion, turned out to be shocking. According to the Foreign Ministry, the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the “convincing and coherent regional policy of the Russian Federation”, which is very unexpected for a country that is not just a U.S. ally and the political branch of Exxon Mobil in the Middle East and a 100% opponent of the Russian Federation in Syria. But the casket (ларчик) has simply opened: the fact is that American dreams of filling the whole world with cheap gas are a death sentence for Qatar and its elite. Without ultra-high gas prices, Qatar does not just lose any hope for regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha focuses quickly and begins to offer something of interest: “At the same time, emphasis was placed on accelerating the coordination of the Forum of Gas Exporting Countries (GECF)”, the next summit of which (that’s a coincidence!) will be held in Qatar. The Forum of Gas Exporting Countries is an organization which includes countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters, and which the Kremlin, for a long time but without success, the Kremlin tried to turn into the gas analogue of OPEC. It is possible that now is the right hour for a potential gas cartel. First, the three major gas exporter: Russia, Qatar and Iran have very similar interests and should be able to work on the same side in order to share and “take over the gills” of the LNG market and pipeline gas market. Such a gas cartel, even in a reduced format (only the Russian Federation, Qatar, Iran) will control at least 55% of the world’s gas reserves and have significant opportunities to strongly influence the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project would involve a lot of problems and it will meet opposition, no one gives a guarantee that everything will work, but it is important to see that Moscow is actively seeking opportunities for more strategic advantages in the fight against the United States.
Hopefully it is now clear on what the Kremlin is spending time, which it is trying to win out of the Ukrainian situation, and why it matters.
Let’s return to problems directly related to Ukraine and note that even the implementation of all the important foreign policy projects will not help in carrying out the denazification of Kiev and make it so that Russian troops or rebel army of Novorossia would by greeted with bread and salt even in the central region. If the army of Novorossia has problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk, then work within the zombified regions will be very, very difficult. However, it seems that on the side of the Russian Federation on the field of battle will soon appear Colonel Hunger and the Special Forces Giperok (“Hyperinflation”), which will dramatically change the balance of power.
The Ukrainian economy is finished. Given the disastrous spring sowings, the crops of vegetables destroyed (frozen), lack of credit, problems with gas, the jump in fuel prices, we can safely say that the economy will come as a northern beast, which will be full and fluffy. No one will give money to the junta, not even from the IMF, which promised something around $17 billion (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year), but built into the contract an “escape clause”: if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev is not to receive a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and correct the minds of the “generous” (shchirykh) Ukrainians: they will surely not come to love Russia, but this is hardly necessary. It is necessary that they begin to remember the Yanukovych period as sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with low intensity civil war guarantees that NATO will not accept Ukraine since Europe will then itself “be on the rails”, and even in the U.S., more or less moderate politicians will not make a move, which obviously would not lead to U.S. victory, but to the dragging of the country into a nuclear war.
Moreover, in the context of total economic collapse, for the miners, metal workers and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to “ride it all in their huts on the edge (of the precipice)”, there will no longer be such a possibility. They will have to participate in one form or another, in the political and economic problems of New Russia. And likely they will have to participate in arms.
At the same time, the-junta-named-Poroshenko, foisted (on the country) by the European Union, will have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow to make concessions, to offer compromises. Already, the new European Commission, which needs peace in the east and stable gas transit, will be pushing Poroshenko in this direction. Poroshenko will also be pushed in the same direction by social upheavals caused by Colonel Hunger and Hyperinflation the Saboteur.
All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something appropriate to the interests of the Russian Federation. It is precisely this scenario that the United States is attempting to avoid, and it is because of this that the United States has serious reasons to accelerate the translation of the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and massive bloodshed.
If you add up the time that is needed for the action of Hunger and the time required to resolve foreign policy problems in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, untethering from the dollar, import substitution, etc. (very roughly) can come to the conclusion that you need somewhere 5-9 months (that same December, for which Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions to Ukrainian and other issues to the maximum advantage of Russia. During this period, you must provide at least for the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (i.e., support for the DNR, LNR, but it is not necessary to take Kiev too fast in order not to create unnecessary additional problems) and ideally, combined with the civil war, prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like 2 +4 format, i.e., Poroshenko + Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA.
The final touch. In recent months, the U.S. has slowed down the work of its printing press, reducing the “pump-priming” (this especially simplifies the formulation) from 85 to 55 billion dollars a month. Very many expect (e.g. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427), that the machine will turn off completely by the end of this year. Again, in that same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, though it is the main international currency, cannot be printed endlessly – it is impossible. According to various estimates, the United States has almost entirely used up the “resource strength” of the dollar, which allowed them to do the naughty with the (financial) machine. Moreover, the corollary and inevitable effect of such tricks is reducing rates on U.S. bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington to pay less for its debts, but, on the other hand, is actually choking the entire U.S. pension and insurance system that is built on the expectation of very different returns from their portfolios bonds. Roughly speaking, by the end of the year, the U.S. will have a choice between to blowing up their social system in order to keep on printing, or greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve any chance of stability at home. Judging by the reduction in the amount of dollars being thrown into the system, Washington has decided that preventing an explosion is more important than its foreign policy ambitions.
Now to complete the puzzle finally, let’s make our predictions:
– America will try by all means to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine, in order to weaken Russia and put the whole European market under its sway before it needs to shut down its printing presses.
– The Kremlin will try to translate the crisis in Ukraine from the acute to the chronic phase – civil war plus sluggish negotiations amid the economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time to create favorable conditions for the transition to the sharp confrontation with the United States – from the work on untethering from the dollar with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the EEC etc.
– Complete end to the crisis in December 2014, possibly earlier if U.S. desists from trying to exacerbate the hostilities.
– And if it does not desist? – Then … a big war … a war for resources, because shale “boom” was an ordinary bubble.
END
Many, many, many thanks!
Just to play devil’s advocate for a moment here (since I fully support Russia/Novorossiya)….In regards to the perceived notion of NATO & their Ukie puppets trying to draw Russia into directly attacking. If this was the case, why hasn’t a Gleiwitz incident or some other kind of false flag not already been implemented? Because to me it’s clear that Putin does not want to intervene directly and would rather a unified, peaceful Ukraine. Could it be that the AngloZionists are merely hoping that a destabilised Ukraine will allow them to plunder Ukraine’s economy/natural resources, with a vague hope of putting in a NATO military presence in the medium/long term.
This is en excellent analysis of the current circumstances and future perspectives of paradigm-shifting tendencies and processes in the world.
As an addendum, today’s Truthseeker on RT talks about the Empire’s insane “total global dominance” doctrine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZvKucpTckjA
A great thanks to BM and the Saker for providing us the opportunity to read this masterpiece!
/LXV
“During this period, you must provide at least for the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (i.e., support for the DNR, LNR, but it is not necessary to take Kiev too fast in order not to create unnecessary additional problems) and ideally, combined with the civil war, prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like 2 +4 format, i.e., Poroshenko + Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA.”
Hmmm. Interesting, but the implication here is that Russia is going to, or should, prolong the civil war in Ukraine for its own interests. I certainly hope that is not the thinking in the Kremlin as it would lose all the moral standing that it has gained thus far. In fact this part of the analysis is quite insidious as it questions the basis of Russia’s concern, which in turn gives the US/NATO alliance yet another propaganda axe to grind. Let the US seek to destroy what is left of Ukraine and let the Russians continue to forge alliances bring them to heel. Russia has to walk a tightrope here but in no way should Russia act to prolong this murderous assault for its own interests. The interests of the people of Ukraine should always come first. So if the regime in Kiev suddenly decides it wants to talk to the Eastern Ukrainians, Russia should do all it can to facilitate it.
I would also question whether the US money spigot will be turned off by the end of the year. As a political calculation the Democrats are expected to lose in a bloodbath in November. Both sides want the end of social security but neither wants the “credit” for it. Cynically speaking the Democrats would want the Republicans to drive off the fiscal cliff so they can beat them with that stick in 2016. So you leave the spigot on and hope the system makes it through January 2016 when the Republicans are expected to take over. If the Republicans come in and turn off the money hose the system survives, but just barely, and no one is happy. But if they keep the money flowing the system blows up and the Republicans take all take the blame, ensuring a Democrat in the White House in January 2017. During the entire time the US will be seeking a casus belli to attack Russia-false flag or not. We are at a very dangerous moment and I simply cannot see how this ends, without war.
Sorry meant to say January 2015 when the Republicans are expected to take over….
Chinese military official speaks of the need to stop punitive operation against civilians in East Ukraine.
(Interfax, 15:28)
Thank you so much, BM. This is a really important piece, to read and to send around. It integrates quite nicely the various pieces we already knew, plus adds more.
So now, the way Putin is playing this makes perfect sense and there’s plenty of back-up material to buttress it against those wanting him to jump in now. But what we’re doing, and the real pickle we’re facing by the end of the year, does make me uneasy, somewhat along the lines of anonymous 12:04. I do not believe we will go easy into that dark night and, especially since Putin has so brilliantly and effectively outplayed them so far, I am really wondering if the psychopathic geniuses in charge at Neocon-Neoliberal-Spook Central aren’t right now putting together a real doozy of a false flag incident. It’s certainly been their style.
Direct war with Russia is suicide and not even the the most stupid exceptionist will try this.No one wins a nuclear war and there is no guarantee the Russians wouldnt use those weapons.
I do not think that is in the interest of Russia to prolong a civil war. This might happen at the end due to prolonged economic/military support to the junta from outside which I doubt. Given the current status of the of the economy in Ukraine I doubt that the junta will be able to keep warring for a longer time. My guess (and wish) the junta will implode in less than a year. I read with despair and disappointment the comments about the European passivity and inaction. Do not they know whats in their best interests? Why Russia should look out for you (Europe)? What has happened with the German pride? (English, French I know they are lost). Is China´s behavior only opportunistic? Do not they know (the Chinese) that the US is also after them? Have not they realized the s.c. Asian/Pacific pivot yet?(it is easier for the US to kill the debtor than to pay the debt I suppose).
Revolution? There’s a pragmatic way to make it happen right now:
We can and must escape the grip of our emperors, the financial capitalists who run the Fed, the Corporate media and the US government. We all agree that we need to establish a new framework of global governance which will inhibit oligarchic control over global policies, a new global Magna Karta to substitute our obnoxious UN Charter. The question is how do we achieve this revolution if the UN Charter was so designed as to inhibit its reform without the approval of the oligarchy?
It’s really quite simple: We the People are represented by our representatives and the internet has now, finally, given us the instrument to express the will of humankind and to enforce it.
Let’s call for an online referendum among the world’s congressmen on whether or not to draw up a new Global Constitution. As the answer will overwhelmingly be YES ! the Global Online Parliament should then establish our Constitutive Council which should develop our New Charter interactively with the forces vives of our global society. No band-aids or aspirins will do. We need a holistic solution.
JeanPaulCousindeBurbure.webs.com
Revolution? There’s a pragmatic way to make it happen right now:
We can and must escape the grip of our emperors, the financial capitalists who run the Fed, the Corporate media and the US government. We all agree that we need to establish a new framework of global governance which will inhibit oligarchic control over global policies, a new global Magna Karta to substitute our obnoxious UN Charter. The question is how do we achieve this revolution if the UN Charter was so designed as to inhibit its reform without the approval of the oligarchy?
It’s really quite simple: We the People are represented by our representatives and the internet has now, finally, given us the instrument to express the will of humankind and to enforce it.
Let’s call for an online referendum among the world’s congressmen on whether or not to draw up a new Global Constitution. As the answer will overwhelmingly be YES ! the Global Online Parliament should then establish our Constitutive Council which should develop our New Charter interactively with the forces vives of our global society. No band-aids or aspirins will do. We need a holistic solution.
JeanPaulCousindeBurbure.webs.com
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-290514.html
Pepe on way your right Saker, Russia is moving on.
Revolution? There’s a pragmatic way to make it happen right now:
We can and must escape the grip of our emperors, the financial capitalists who run the Fed, the Corporate media and the US government. We all agree that we need to establish a new framework of global governance which will inhibit oligarchic control over global policies, a new global Magna Karta to substitute our obnoxious UN Charter. The question is how do we achieve this revolution if the UN Charter was so designed as to inhibit its reform without the approval of the oligarchy?
It’s really quite simple: We the People are represented by our representatives and the internet has now, finally, given us the instrument to express the will of humankind and to enforce it.
Let’s call for an online referendum among the world’s congressmen on whether or not to draw up a new Global Constitution. As the answer will overwhelmingly be YES ! the Global Online Parliament should then establish our Constitutive Council which should develop our New Charter interactively with the forces vives of our global society. No band-aids or aspirins will do. We need a holistic solution.
JeanPaulCousindeBurbure.webs.com
Anonymous @ 12-36
In any interactive system outcomes are never solely determined by one of the participants.
To deny this is to posit and reinforece exceptionalism which lies at the heart of the opposition’s ideology.
It may or may not be a freudian slip on your part but you cite an entity called US. You also cite an entity you call USA which manifestly is not united.
Apparently like the cake lady you seek to bring beneficences to the unexceptional – in your case seeking to define moral standards or even imperatives for Russia, and the interests of the people of Ukraine.
It is heartening to see that
” I simply cannot see how this ends” and ” I simply cannot see how this ends, without war”.
War is in progress, but more heartingly US simply cannot see how this ends.
Jean-Paul Cousin de Burbure @13-57.
I suggest that there are logical errors in your contribution.
To be holistic any solution needs to be participatory – not dependent on representatives, and to include all aspects of social interaction including political economy.
I agree that prolong a civil war for R’s benefit is amoral. Any one who suggest this should be shot.
A policy base on if and when US economy will collapse (let along in next 6 month) is laughable.
Regarding Iran and China blackmailing RF into submission for some long term relationship, price advantage may be, but black mail? I have a question to you, why in the world the 30 year gas deal did not get signed for over 10 years until RF is at very stress’s situation? Who are RF’s strategists on this and many other issue? should someone be shown their doors?
Should RF also look into history and study what polices bring about a prospers society and have a sound strategy instead of some ad hoc polices?
J
Many thanks to BM and the Saker for this post. It does make sense that Russia must look to its national interest first, so I really expect them to support the separatists covertly like with the Igla-S:
http://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_army_light_heavy_weapons_uk/sa-24_grinch_9k338_igla-s_portable_air_defense_missile_system_technical_data_sheet_specifications_uk.html
and look to the long game, as they say here.
There indeed will be a Eurasian shift taking place. I posted a series of geo-political summaries some time ago which suggested something similar. Hopefully the USAians will be able to reform their system from under the Anglo Zionist hegemon and change; they really are good people, and good people every where should pool their resources to help support each other.
I have to correct the author of the article. The Federal Reserve has unequivocally NOT stopped the printing of US dollar-debt; what it has done is switched to straw purchasers, or rather, one straw purchaser it seems: Belgium.
From Market Oracle:
Over the last six months Belgium has started to behave eccentrically, even by Belgian standards. No, the small country of 11 million has not decided to stop making chocolate or waffles. It has decided to increase its buying of U.S. Treasury bonds…in a very big way. According to latest U.S. Treasury Department data, since August of 2013 entities in Belgium have purchased and held a stunning $215 billion of U.S. Treasuries. This figure is equivalent to about half the country’s annual GDP, and equates to almost $20,000 for every living Belgian. Prior to that time, Belgium had held its cache fairly steady at around $170-$190 billion. But by March, that total had increased by almost 130% (to $381 billion) in just seven months. The purchases represented 61% of the total increase in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries over that time frame. Given the fact that Belgium, as of last September, had less than 3% of the Treasury bonds held by foreign sources, this is strange behavior indeed.
Of course exactly who is buying those bonds remains a mystery. It’s only known for sure that a Belgium-based clearing house called Euroclear is “likely responsible” for holding the $200 plus billion in Treasuries. It’s amazing in this day and age when every e-mail and phone call is scrubbed for security content that hundreds of billions of dollars could move across borders without anyone really knowing what is going on. Of course this is likely only possible if official sources themselves are the transacting parties.
What is clear is that this is not likely the government of Belgium, or private Belgian capital, that is doing the buying. The numbers are just too large. This is particularly true in the First Quarter of 2014 when the buying averaged a stunning $41.5 billion per month (January was the biggest month with $54 billion). In all likelihood, the only European buyer with a wallet that big would be the European Central Bank (ECB) itself. But why would the ECB buy when the Federal Reserve was supposed to be tapering?
Just Google: “Belgium buying US bonds” for more information.
Because the possibility that’s never mentioned on this side of the narrative, hereby the following question: “Isn’t it possible that the Americans at the end of their aggressive approach switch to a more constructive, business-like policy in which they too profit of the new opportunities the Eurasian alliance offers?
Or is absolutely justified to persevere in the cynical assumption of the opposite?
In mine humble view, avoiding The Unthinkable this paradigm shouldn’t evaporate in the heat of this political discourse. Surely they are human too, and not completely mad as mentioned in this article?”
A brief article on the Bilderberg meet and greet to include in your deliberations. As noted in the comment section, Western media have been unusually quiet on this years meeting
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/31/bilderberg-ukraine-summit
Hi, Saker. Article is quite impressive. As many of us I wondered about possible reasons of Russia’s not-intervening policy in Ukrainian crisis. Still I don’t understand why there’re no some covert supplies of so needed portable anti-aircraft / anti-tank missiles so needed in South-East of Ukraine? To lift the spirit here is the latest twit of Rogozin:
Dmitry Rogozin
@DRogozin Psaki’s show lacks a laugh track
For whatever it is worth, the author’s comments about the dollar are not informed by an accurate understanding of the US monetary system. The US has not been printing dollars. It has been involved in asset exchanges with the private sector: reserves for bonds or other assets. This activity does not increase the net dollar-denominated financial assets in the system. If anything, it reduces them, because reserves pay even less interest than the bonds they are being swapped for. The interest rate that the US pays for bonds is actually (and always) a policy choice determined by the Federal Reserve. In short, the US government need not choose “between blowing up their social system in order to keep on printing, or greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve any chance of stability at home.” What is blowing up the US’s social system right now is in fact inadequate government spending, not too much spending.
Interesting analysis, which however leaves out the mass of people as playing any other role except malleable victims.
The mass of people seem quiescent partially because of the dominant ideological apparatus that promotes individualism. In Ukraine as in the rest of the former Soviet Union, there is the additional disarming illusion that the Soviet Union was rule by the mass of the people and that rule is always bound to fail.
However appearances can be deceiving. There would be no rule by Pravy Sector and opposition oligarchs if the masses hadnt moved into action at maidan themselves. I dont believe that argument that they only did so thanks to Nulands cookies. People had real grievances and they were mainly against the social inequality and corruption that maintained it.
If maidan now reawakens in opposition to former Opposition oligarchs and Pravy Sector, then they start to become, in effect, the natural allies of the people of Donbass. Add a third potential ally in the sections of the Ukraine army who are refusing to fight or at least dragging their feet and being hounded by the same Pravy Sector. A fourth ally are the miners who are moving into actions and carry a real social weight.
If these natural allies were to consciously form links, then a third alternative to those posed by either the US or Russia starts to take shape. Such an alternative is not concerned with who amongst US elites and Russian/Ukrainian oligarchs has the dominant position. Instead a movement of people from the below would seek to dispossess oligarchs and readdress social inequality.
Moreover such a movement would establish a real basis for East-West Ukrainian unity rather than the corrupt system of paying off various oligarchs in order to maintain an unstable balance. This third alternative would require some real social forces on the ground to overcome false divisions and forge unity. I have no idea if that is possible in current circumstances, but the whole situation is in flux and the need is urgent. I hope such a third alternative does emerge.
ITAR-TASS reports: Russia excludes use of GPS stations for military purposes on its territory
Would The Saker kindly comment on whether (apart from Russia’s annoyance at “the absence of progress in talks on the deployment of Russia’s GLONASS stations in the United States”) this disabling of the Russian GPS stations might be intended to pre-empt NATO’s use of cruise missiles and such if things turn nasty (though maybe that is obvious, unless those cruise missiles don’t use GPS).
Thanks so much for the translation. The grisly metaphors of Mr. hunger and Mrs. hyperinflation only added to the gravitas of the sadly very possible scenario to come. The low level civil war is already in progress ( note the “appearance” of decent weapons). the Wall Street Journal weekend edition had an article, “Bulgaria’s Allies in West Worry About the Tilt East” What is very significant about this article is the quote: ” Everyone is concentrating on Ukraine but the crisis also has the potential to push to soft disintegration of the EU” said Ivan Krastev,chairman of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, a Sofia based think tank. In the West Putin’s name is mud-there is a huge derogatory article on the front page of another section- no matter what he does or does not do but he has them running scared. Also, please consider that there are factions within the American ruling class who may well be at odds on how to proceed so do not assume that what has happened so far is merely the result of pure unadulterated incompetence.
Dear The Saker,
Thank your for the latest SITREP and the must read article.
The USG is doing everything it can to drag Russia into a war and destroy the EU economically at the same time. As has been discussed by yourself and many of us commenters on here – Russia knows what it is doing..patience..time is on their side. A lot is being achieved. I hope this article stops the nay sayers.
It will be interesting to see what Russia does this month with its Presidency of the UNSC.
Does the Russian 5th column have much of an impact now with Putin’s high popularity?
Rgds,
Veritas
The article about the state of the poor UKR conscripts, sent there against their will and completely without training, is indeed fascinating and rather tragic.
Just saw today’s briefing by Col. Strelkov that also indicates things are not going too well for the Ukraine side, and he mentions getting a hundred new volunteers just in a day.
Here is some more reading matter, citing an article in Le Monde mocking the US line on Russia:
http://marknesop.wordpress.com/2014/05/31/pavlovian-bipolar-fantasies-le-monde-hammers-the-wests-scrotum-flat/#more-2929
Always there with the price in dollars, Brookings Institute, no friend of Putin’s, says west could buy off east for, say, 276 bn. It adds that the west can’t afford it. So Brookings is telling Obama to back off.
http://en.reseauinternational.net/ukraine-major-western-think-tank-admits-defeat/
Looks like printing press grinds to a halt very soon.
“I advise you to read the telegram’s Wikileaks”
Wikileaks is zionist poison
http://www.maskofzion.com/2010/10/wikileaks-is-zionist-poison.html
“the Qatari emir said that he appreciates the “convincing and coherent regional policy of the Russian Federation””
John Kerry: Arab countries pay for the Invasion of Syria
http://www.syrianews.cc/john-kerry-arab-countries-pay-invasion-syria/
“Iran”
Netanyahu says Russia and Israel on same page over Iran threat
http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanyahu-hosts-putin-in-jerusalem-for-regional-round-up/
and so can anyone point the “excellent analysis” undermine
Putin takes over the fate of Europe? Europe, which installed the Maidan in Ukraine? Europe, who barks orders as USrael? Who rules in Europe? Who rules in Ukraine? Who rules in USA?
and who rules in Russia?
Berel Lazar and Chabad Lubavitch?
Berel Lazar of Putin (Oxford, 2 feb 2008):
“Never before has any leader of Russia or the Soviet Union has done so much for the Jews, as Vladimir Putin. In every respect it is unprecedented. Ariel Sharon in talks with me frequently stressed that for Jews and Israel, the Kremlin is the biggest friend. Now, many mayors of cities of Russia, heads of provinces and ministries, is Jewish. This has become the norm. Today, our center in Marijnoj claim often come the highest leaders of Russia, it happened already routine. Dmitry Medvedev three days before the announcement of his successor president, also came to our center, where he promised that, for us, the future will be even more successful. Get even more than we expected. I repeat: it took place three days before the announcement of his successor Putin.”
and already smacks of mockery is to take ukraine hunger and cold because as I understand it, these few million Russians in Ukraine it will not, affect.
and a word about “too little” involvement of the residents of Lugansk and Donetsk. Yet you little after what you people have done? What else do you want? You people whose only activity is to go to some fucking elections or gestures of sympathy on blogs. and besides, it spread out as usual handle.
and as it appears on the boycott (how many of you do not have a TV? how many do not use banking services? how many do not work for system, army, bureaucracy? how many do not buy the products of companies that fund this shit?) is turn away the head or censor (as Saker when I pointed out to him that advertises nexus and google – is the same, which removed the account anna news on youtube and thousands of other issues that have on his conscience.
how to reactivate since generations living in the same system, and no one else knows …
ask grandfather
he said the same thing
in a world of slaves still talk about freedom
To be honest, I think my translation of the first half of the article (in the comments here: http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/two-very-good-articles-one-in-russian.html ) had better grammar. Some of the translation here mangles Russian expressions and makes them incomprehensible (examples: “attempts “carry mode”, “even more unpleasant but less nuanced script that something like “Plan E”, “But the casket has simply opened”).
Congrats to BM for finishing the whole thing, though – I know it takes a lot of work.
I’d still like to do a more proper translation later today though, which I’ll post in the comments.
The translation makes the article very accessible now. Excellent job, thank you BM, also thank you Saker for posting it.
Interesting article on the state of the Ukrainian Army :
http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=127
A “must read” post indeed, thank you very, very much.
Some political considerations from the American side of this. The American President is simply not engaged in this at all. I know that sounds outlandish but as an American and more importantly a Chicagoan I’m pretty sure it is the case.
Obama’s first Secretary of State was appointed strictly for domestic political reasons and she was a loose cannon. The boss never interfered. The current SoS also got his job for domestic political reasons and he’s shown himself utterly incompetent. Incompetence does not matter. Go a step lower, the National Security Advisor is a relatively young woman with trivial qualifications and again it does not matter. The Ambassador to the UN is a petulant child and it does not matter. And none of the above have that much access to the President.
Obama’s inner circle has been very stable. Bill Daley, Valerie Jarrett, Penny Pritzker, David Axelrod. Chicagoans all and quite parochial ones at that.Axelrod has a complete precinct map of the City of Chicago in his head and he knows at least a few things about all 435 Congressional districts. He does not know where Ukraine is. Daley is the only one who even qualifies as smart and he spends most of his time chasing young boys. The two women think of nothing but money. Their own money, not Wall Street.
Because the boss has never cared the dominant faction at State is the Cheney faction. Vicky Nuland is from Cheney’s personal staff. That such a clique has been allowed to persist is not because Obama is a secret neo-con, it’s because Obama is just disengaged. The largest part of the mid-level appointees who should be eyes and ears in the bureaucracy are drawn from the Hall (Chicago City Hall) and the University of Chicago Lab School (which is just a private elementary/secondary school). These appointees are hopelessly out of their depth. And they don’t have the boss’s ear anyway.
If you want to know how Obama governs look at a cardboard cut-out of Eric Holder.
The Cheney faction and the permanent schemers at Langley can do a lot and they have done a lot. They are limited by not having executive power. They don’t personally know the President and don’t know what he will do in a crunch. In the meantime tapping into Cold War Russophobia covers all missteps. The public knows nothing, the media knows nothing. What is really happening at Langley is by nature obscure.
Very good comment. Usraeli imperialist wars are spiralling like cancer. These crooks stir up bloody wars and civil wars everywhere, not giving a ratsfuck about human right, international right s.o. How dare these morons to judge on Russia for not accepting western sponsored ukrainian fascists and flown in blackwater mercenaries to overran land that millions of russians have been giving their blood & lives for defending it against fascists in WWII. USrael & Co(NATO &/Saudi Arabia) are greedy massmurderous megalomaniacs, waging war over war unleashing havoc on dozens of helpless people with less than a decade.
Russia has always been attacked by a pack.
This time it is Ali Baba and 40 thieves i.e. USA and NATO
The Saker,
what´s your opinion about Yevgeny Fedorov (if you have any)? Somebody posted here yesterday this interview:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0zRD-Ulv2s
To me he sounds like populist without substance.
Ok, I’ve combined my translation from the previous thread with BM’s, fixing all grammatical errors and weird phrases (which I think crept in because BM is not a native English speaker). Saker, I would appreciate if you would link my translation somewhere as well, or replace the current one.
—
original text:
http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1516927
(translation of first half: mostly by E, second half: mostly by BM, everything copy-edited for grammar and meaning by E)
part 1:
===
The level of analytical discussion in the Russian Internet was excellently described by political scientist Semyon (Simon) Uralov: “It is fundamentally wrong to think that only our Kievan colleagues have lost their minds and turned into bloodthirsty hysterics due to the Ukrainian crisis. There is an incredible amount of such people among our Moscow colleagues as well.”
The goal of the present text is to move away from hysterics and towards a cold analysis of the Ukrainian situation.
I will begin with necessary clarifications upon several emotionally important topics:
==Why is there no military intervention by the Russian Federation?==
If this text had been written several days earlier, a large portion would have had to be dedicated to a description of why it would be impractical and simply stupid to bring troops into Ukraine, even after a referendum. Thankfully, the resistance leader of Slavyansk, Igor Strelkov, who in his video address very precisely described the inertia of the local population of Lugansk and Donetsk with regard to any real moves towards protecting their interests from the junta, has dealt with this issue better than I. Foreseeing the arguments about taking part in the referendum, I want to say right from the start that checking a ballot box is, of course, pretty cool, but it doesn’t much differ from white-ribboned [belolentochnyh] hipsterish attempts to “bring down the regime” with Facebook “likes”. Just because the “like” is written on a physical ballot doesn’t change anything. The referendum was a necessary action, but it wasn’t nearly enough.
==How much is the Kremlin prepared for current events in Ukraine, and how much is it improvising?==
I recommend reading the following Wikileaks cable: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html , from which is can be seen that already in 2008, the Kremlin predicted the precise scenarios which we see today: “Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face.”
It is logical to assume that these developments were not a surprise for the Kremlin and that today we are in a situation that is not ideal, but was nevertheless more-or-less prepared for, something like a “Plan E”.
[[[…part 2 to follow]]]
[[[continued from part 1]]]
In order to understand what the Kremlin will do next, let us formulate the following goals:
– Not allow Ukraine to enter NATO
– Not allow the establishment and stabilization of a Russophobic regime in Ukraine, in other words denazification.
– Not allow a genocide of the Southeastern Russian population
Ideally, all three goals should be realized without breaking the Russian economy in the process of reorienting it towards Asia, and without letting the Americans improve their own economy at the expense of the EU.
How can these goals be realized?
Let us look over the simplest scenario and see what vulnerabilities and negative consequences follow from it:
And so, the Russian Federation army enters Ukraine and in several days reaches Kiev, then takes all of Ukraine. “Patriots” are jubilant, there are parades on Kiev’s main street Khreshchatyk, etc.
It seems that all three goals have been reached, but the following problems arise:
1. In the EU, in which the European business elites are currently leaning on their politicians to put the brakes on sanctions, the “War Party” (aka. “Party USA”, or to be more precise, “Party Pax Americana”) immediately wins the argument. Maximal, real sanctions are enforced against the Russian Federation, which have their most awful effect upon the European economy, which immediately enters recession. But there’s nothing to rejoice about.
Against this background, the Americans easily push through the signing of their variant of The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership – a trade agreement which turns the EU into an appendage of the American economy. Negotiations about it are going on at this very moment, and the entering of Russian Federation troops into Ukraine would be an enormous gift to the Americans. Sanctions against Russia would destroy European business and trade barriers with the US would finish it. At the end of it all: the EU is in a postwar-like state. The USA is happily mastering the European markets, for which it now has no competition (nor will any appear). The Russian Federation is in poor form. Don’t you think that somebody in this situation is a dupe, somebody who is not the USA? By the way, it is no use to consider arguments that European politicians will not allow their own economic suicide. Eurobureaucrats are capable of this and more, as practice has shown.
…[part 3 to follow]…
[[[continued from part 2]]]
2. Besides the issue that the Kremlin will be helping Washington, we must look at the situation in Russia itself.
• If the sanctions against Russia are enforced before the mega 30-year gas contract with China is signed, China will be able to negotiate price from a position of strength. Practically from a position of blackmail (which China is already doing, but not so obviously).
• If the sanctions against Russia are enforced before the mega oil contract with Iran is signed, through which Rosneft will be able to control another 500,000 barrels of oil a day, Iran will be able to negotiate price from a position of strength.
• All subsequent attempts to construct any deals, even simply deliveries of imports that we need, will be very, very expensive
• If the sanctions are enforced before the signing of the Eurasian Economic Community agreement, just imagine what trumps Lukashenko and Nazarbayev [presidents of Belarus and Kazakhstan] will have to twist Putin’s arms at negotiations. A little more, and Moscow will have to pay extra for its own oil in order to establish the EEC.
3. the Russian Federation will have to take upon itself the responsibility of uplifting the Ukrainian economy, the denazification (where will one get the needed number of denazificators? If anyone has forgotten, according to Okudzhava [famous singer-songwriter], it was the commissars in dusty helmets that bent over the dead hero of the Civil War), leading the battle against compact groups of Ukrainian Nazis, who will be supported and supplied from abroad.
In summary, it is clear that in this scenario, the clear winners are the USA and China. Russia is left only with a feeling of deep moral satisfaction, economic problems, and curses from “generous” (щирых) Ukrainians, who will be unhappy with “life under occupation”.
…[part 4 to follow]…
[continued from part 3]
Here is the timeline of our primary vulnerable points:
1. Natural gas contract with China – May-June (signed on May 21!)
2. Oil contract with Iran – summer (that is why the USA lifted the embargo, since Rosneft has influence with BP but not with Exxon Mobil. Where will the oil flow? To China).
3. Important! European parliament elections, in which Euroskeptics (allies of the Russian Federation) will receive many votes. After the elections, a new European Commission will be put together, with which it will be easier to work – May 25. Even more important! If the gas contract with China is signed, the newly elected deputies will be more amenable to discussing the South Stream pipeline.
4. Collection of all necessary documents/permissions etc. for building the South Stream pipeline – May
This is what can be seen in plain sight, but there are other aspects which are very important to which it is difficult to assign a clear timetable:
1. Transition to settlements in rubles for energy (oil and gas) – this is no piece of cake, there are long-term contracts which cannot be unilaterally rewritten. Lengthy work is required to exchange them with new contracts or modify existing ones.
2. Transition to setting the prices of oil and gas in rubles within Russian markets – this is a horrendous amount of work, at least for the reason that nobody before has ever really tried to do something like this.
3. An indigenous payment system
4. Preparing for import substitution or improving work with Asian suppliers (not in emergency mode)
The list can and should be continued; this is what I see, but the Kremlin surely has a wider viewpoint.
…[part 5 to follow]…
[continued from part 4]
Now let us add several interesting initiatives of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which is keeping quite busy. For example, Vice Minister Karasin was in Doha [capital of Qatar] on May 6, meeting with the entire Qatari elite. The results, by my judgement, are shocking. According to the Ministry’s statements, the Qatari Emir stated that he values “the compelling and consistent policy of the Russian Federation in international and regional affairs”, which is very unexpected from a country which is not simply a US ally, but a political affiliate of Exxon Mobil in the Near East and a 100% opponent of Russia in Syria. But the mystery is easily solved, for the American dreams of flooding the entire world with cheap natural gas are a death sentence for Qatar and its elite. Without sky-high gas prices, Qatar not only loses its hopes for regional greatness, but becomes a corpse. Doha is orienting quickly and is proposing something interesting: “at the same time, it was proposed to speed up coordination within the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF)”, the next summit of which (what a coincidence!) will be in Qatar. The Gas Exporting Countries Forum is an organization which includes countries such as Russia, Iran, Qatar, Venezuela, Bolivia and other exporters, and which the Kremlin has long but unsuccessfully tried to turn into a natural gas analogue to OPEC. It is indeed possible that the hour of the potential gas cartel has finally come. First of all, the three main exporters of natural gas, Russia, Qatar and Iran, have very similar interests and can work on the same side in order to divide up both the LNG [liquefied natural gas] and the pipeline gas markets. Such a gas cartel, even in a minimal configuration (just Russia, Qatar and Iran) will control a minimum of 55% of the world’s supplies of gas and have the possibility of seriously influencing the energy markets of the EU and Asia. Of course, such a project will have many problems; it will meet resistance, nobody gives any guarantees that it will all work, but it’s important to see that Moscow is actively looking for opportunities to gain additional strategic advantages in battle with the USA.
I hope, it is now clear where the Kremlin is spending the time which it is trying to buy in Ukraine, and why this is important.
…[part 6 to follow]…
[[[continued from part 5]]]
Let’s return to issues directly related to Ukraine and note that even the implementation of all the important foreign policy projects will not help in carrying out the denazification of Kiev, or make it so that Russian troops or the rebel army of Novorossia would be greeted happily at least in the central regions. If the army of Novorossia has problems with mobilization in Lugansk and Donetsk, then work within the more zombified regions will be very, very difficult. However, it seems that Colonel Hunger and the “Hyperinflation” Special Forces Division will soon appear on the side of the Russian Federation on the field of battle, which will dramatically change the balance of power.
The Ukrainian economy is finished. Given the disastrous spring sowings, the destroyed crops of vegetables (due to freezing), lack of credit, problems with gas, the jump in fuel prices, one can safely say that the economy will meet a certain northern beast, which will be full and fluffy. No one will give money to the junta, and even the IMF, which made some promise about $17 billion (exactly 50% of what Ukraine needs for this year) built an “escape clause” into their contract: if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev is not to receive a cent. Hunger, cold and hyperinflation (caused by the collapse of the hryvnia) will actively work to weaken the junta and correct the minds of the “generous” (shchirykh) Ukrainians. They will surely not come to love Russia, but this is hardly necessary. It is only necessary that they begin to remember the Yanukovych period as a sweet, unattainable dream. The inevitable chaos and total collapse of social structures, coupled with a low intensity civil war, guarantees that NATO will not accept Ukraine since Europe will then itself “be on the rails”, and even in the U.S., more or less moderate politicians will prevent any movement which would obviously not lead to a U.S. victory, but to the dragging of the country into a nuclear war.
…part 7 to follow…
[[[continued from part 6]]]
Moreover, in the context of total economic collapse, the miners, metal workers and other comrades who are now firmly glued to their jobs for fear of losing them and hoping to “ride it all out in their huts on the edge (of the precipice)”, there will no longer have such a possibility. They will have to participate in one form or another in the political and economic problems of Novorossia. Most likely, they will have to participate with weapons in hand.
At the same time, the Poroshenko junta, foisted upon the country by the European Union, will now have a strong incentive to negotiate with Moscow, to make concessions and offer compromises. Poroshenko will begin to be pushed in this direction by the new European Commission, which will need peace in the east and stable gas transit. Poroshenko will also be pushed in the same direction by the social upheavals caused by Colonel Hunger and Saboteur Hyperinflation.
All these factors, in sum, open up great opportunities for the Kremlin to reformat the former Ukraine into something appropriate to the interests of the Russian Federation. It is precisely this scenario that the United States is attempting to avoid, and it is because of this that the United States has serious reasons to accelerate the conflict into a hot phase with the use of troops and massive bloodshed.
…part 8 to follow…
[[[continued from part 7]]]
If you add up the time that is needed for the effect of Hunger and the time required to resolve foreign policy problems in terms of establishing work with China, Iran, untethering from the dollar, import substitution, etc., we can (very roughly) come to the conclusion that you need around 5-9 months (that same December, for which Yanukovych tried to negotiate) to provide solutions to Ukrainian and other issues to the maximum advantage of Russia. During this period, you must at a minimum ensure the preservation of Ukraine in a state of civil war (i.e., support for the DNR and LNR, but it wouldn’t do to take Kiev too fast in order to not create unnecessary additional problems for yourself) and ideally, combine the civil war with prolonged and sticky negotiations within Ukraine, with the participation of international observers, something like the 2+4 format, i.e., Poroshenko + Tsarev + Russia, EU, OSCE, USA.
Now for the final touch. In recent months, the U.S. has heavily slowed down the work of its printing press, reducing its “money infusions” (I’m intentionally simplifying the terminology) from 85 to 55 billion dollars a month. Very many expect (e.g. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/27/us-usa-fed-idUSBREA3Q08920140427), that the machine will be turned off completely by the end of this year. Again, in that same December. This is due to the fact that the dollar, though it is the main international currency, cannot be printed endlessly. According to various estimates, the United States has almost entirely used up the “resource strength” of its dollar which had allowed them to do dirty tricks with the financial system. Moreover, the corollary and inevitable effect of such tricks is reducing rates on U.S. bonds, which, on the one hand, helps Washington to pay less for its debts, but, on the other hand, is actually choking the entire U.S. pension and insurance system that is built on the expectation of very different returns from their portfolios bonds. By the end of the year, roughly speaking, the U.S. will have a choice between blowing up their social system in order to keep on printing, or greatly reducing their appetites in order to preserve any chance of stability at home. Judging by the reduction in the amount of dollars being thrown into the system, Washington has decided that preventing an explosion at home is more important than its foreign policy ambitions.
…part 9 to follow…
[[[continued from part 8]]]
Now to complete the puzzle finally, let’s make our predictions:
– America will try with all its might to aggravate the crisis in Ukraine, in order to weaken Russia and put the whole European market under its sway before it needs to shut down its printing presses.
– The Kremlin will try to transfer the crisis in Ukraine from the acute to the chronic phase: a civil war plus sluggish negotiations amid the economic collapse of Ukraine. At the same time, the Kremlin will use the time to create favourable conditions for the transition to sharp confrontation with the United States: untethering from the dollar, work with China, Iran, Qatar, creating the EEC etc.
– The complete end to the crisis in will come in December 2014, possibly earlier if the U.S. desists from trying to exacerbate the hostilities.
– And if it does not desist?
– Then… war… a great war for resources, because the shale “boom” turned out to be an ordinary bubble.
This subject is covered in detail in the following article by William Engdahl, “Washington’s Shale Boom Going Bust”: http://journal-neo.org/2014/05/12/washington-s-shale-boom-going-bust/
END
@E
Excellent translation! Thanks.
By the way, somebody at the “Foreign Policy Research Institute” has written an English-language analysis of the article:
http://www.fpri.org/articles/2014/05/ukraine-still-here-after-autumn
There could be some People who think that it would be helpful if at least one European Leader did not attend the D Day Ceremony, because they will be signing a Document for Democracy in Europe, rather than answering Questions whether there Could be Far Too Many Nazis there this year.
I think that this comment should go viral in order to make for better Constitutional and Democratic Standards in Democracies in Europe, and People should Copy and Paste this comment, and send it to their Politicians Anonymously and to Everyone, and it reads as follows.
If I were an Elected Representative or An Appointed Official in Europe, then I would Propose the Voluntary Signing of a Statement to Promote Better Democracy in Europe, in order to Prevent WW 3, and Improve the Economy.
It would Not be Compulsory, but those who would Not sign it, Might be looked Upon as or Unsuitable to Serve their Citizens, or to be Journalists, because they did not want to Voluntarily sign that Statement to Promote Better Democracy in Europe.
That Statement would say: While I Deny All such Accusations regarding myself, I must Admit that it Could Be Possible that Some Politicians and Some Journalists in my European Country, Could have been Bribed with Money, or that they were Knowingly or Secretly Filmed in Acts of Bestiality, or Paedophilia, or Group Sex, and they are now Willing or Unwilling Traitors and Fifth Columnists against their Own People.
The Euro-American Plutocrats are the Real Rulers of the European Union and much of the Rest of the World, and Spying is Everywhere as Julian Assange and Edward Snowden have Proven.
I would say that I am signing this Statement Voluntarily to help Promote the Most Basic of Human Rights, and Most Basic of Democratic Rights of All the Citizens of my European Country.
Anonymous (15.33)
“Inadequate government spending”? Really?
Is there a budget surplus in the USA? No. Not even close. USA is solidly in the red.
How can a government spending be “inadequate” if cumulative governemnt debt already exceeds 100% of GDP, and even on top of an economic cycle, the budget deficit is projected to be around 4% of GDP this fiscal year, with an open-end deterioration after 2017.
Something is terribly wrong with your final conclusion.
To those asking about Yevgeny Fedorov:
Over the years, I found him vaccilating between total lunacy (don’t recall the subject by now, but it made me remember his face and his name) and reasonably measured positions. Probably depends on the meds he is taking.
I’d employ simple logic and common sense while watching/reading/listening to what he says. Obviously, “USA attacking Russia in 2015” doesn’t pass even a simplest smell test.
America is at the weakest point in the last 130 years, Russia at strongest in 30 years, so if the US didn’t have a regime change capability before, it most certainly doesn’t have it now.
The business world may stop the madness. This is how close each nation is to one another and will Europe so no to Amerika? I don’t think they will.
http://www.spaceflightnow.com/sealaunch/eutelsat3b/140526launch/#.U4uLHmcU-Uk
Thanks E.
Anonymous @ 14:13
“In any interactive system outcomes are never solely determined by one of the participants.”
Thought experiment. Imagine for a moment that the US and NATO stopped supporting Kiev. Do you believe that the current civil war would continue? I didn’t think so. So your statement that “outcomes are never solely determined by one of the participants” is not uniformly true. In this case, without the support of the parties I mentioned, the fighting would end tomorrow. So in this case one of the participants IS determining the outcome, if by outcome we mean prolonged fighting. Does this reinforce the concept of exceptionalism or recognize the illegitimacy, and inherent weakness, of the Kiev regime? As the lawyers say “but for” the support of the US/NATO there would be no fighting. In fact there would have been no coup.
Next, which seems to be your real objection, is the question of judging Russia against a moral standard, should it determine to prolong the fighting in Ukraine for its own interests. Before we address this however the connection between the previous point and current point should be noted. If, the junta issued a declaration to withdraw and engage in negotiations and Russia encouraged the fighters in Eastern Ukraine to continue fighting, solely for its own intersts, would that not also imply that one of the participants can determine the outcome? (By this I do not mean to imply that Russia is a direct participant, only to sharpen the point that your initial hypothesis is false.)
As for the moral judgment, the reason that the junta and its US/NATO/EU backers are losing legitimacy is because what they are doing is manifestly immoral! The decision as to the immorality of its actions has been taken by those of us who are actually paying attention to events as they unfold. But does this, do we, actually matter? Again, ask yourself this question. If the moral component of the battle did not matter, why then the Herculean effort to portray the junta as good and democratic, and the Eastern Ukrainians and Russia as evil and authoritarian? Of course it matters. Acting in a manner that is moral and humane has drawn support to Russia’s side. Should they betray that moral stance, their support would evaporate and the other side would gain a freer hand. The author himself acknowledged this, although in a oblique way, when he wrote that if Russian troops were to invade Ukraine the TTIP would become law at once. Why? Would the TTIP suddenly have become a better deal? No, because Russia would have lost the moral high ground that they now occupy because she would be acting in a way that many would find repugnant. You also mentioned setting moral standards for Russia and the people of Ukraine. How do you think those Ukrainians might feel if they knew that Russia acted to prolonged the fighting so she could gain a better deal. If you lost a loved one during that period of prolonged fighting how would you feel? And how many Ukrainian deaths would make Russia’s calculation worth it? 100? 1,000, 10,000? Juxtapose Madelyn Albright saying that the deaths of 500,000 Iraqi children was “worth the price.” Russia has acted with clear motives thus far and I hope she continues to do so.
My commentary about no end short of war simply means that the EU/US/NATO seem hell bent on it. I hope that I am wrong but I do not think so. The history of the forces arrayed against Russia has been one of deceit and double dealing that is unmatched. They can not be trusted under the best of circumstances, certainly I would not advise trusting them now, when they are desperate. Finally, by the “cake lady” I think you must mean Ms Nuland. I must admit I do not see the connection but no matter. I do not accept any comparison with her.
@Crossvader:
I’m not a fanboy of Fedorov, but I keep track of his and Starikov’s comments.
Can you please mention where Fedorov said that US will attack in 2015? I saw his interview two weeks ago, but I don’t remember him saying that.
Either way, there clearly has been a declaration of war.
– NATO’s 2nd man has declared Russia an enemy.
– Hillary, Schäuble and Prince Charles all compared Putin to Hitler.
– Think about this for a minute. Is a discussion possible with Hitler? No. One can only kill Hitler – no discussion possible. Who are the people who vote for Hitler? They are fascists. Fascists aren’t humans. So Putin is Hitler, Russians are fascists, all are allowed to be killed.
– Plus Timoshenko talked about nuking Russians.
– 100+ Russians were murdered in Odessa and the west doesn’t lift a finger, some are even saying the most cynical and disgusting things about it openly on official state TV.
– The west is openly backing a junta killing Russians in Donbass.
If all their statements aren’t declaration of war then I don’t know what is. Their actions are clearly already war against Russia, I don’t know what else to call it.
Hmmm. Interesting, but the implication here is that Russia is going to, or should, prolong the civil war in Ukraine for its own interests.
================================
That’s exactly the main path to become a mere “Antithesis” and so one of the constituents of the devilish synthesis which rules the world.
http://houseofmaedhros.wordpress.com/2014/06/01/ukrainian-catch-22/
Frankly, I can’t share all the enthusiasm for this analysis. It’s a good analysis, but hardly a masterpiece.
Every point it makes could be easily countered with equal plausibility.
It also contains factual errors, as in the case of the Fed tapering. It’s not tapering at all!
I would also point out the inanity of being perfectly aware of a coming aggression, since 2008 according to the author, and all you can do is an unwillingness to face a hard choice.
That’s exactly the definition of unpreparedness that the author wants to deny.
P.S. – I wish to thank “E” for his translation, which is more accurate.
P.S. – @ Crossvader
“Inadequate government spending”? Really?
==============================
Yes, really! Fully inadequate!
All the money the D-Empire spends at deficit (i.e. billing citizens for that) benefits EXCLUSIVELY the demons (with still a human body) at its top, with some crumbs feeding the multitude of their watching dogs. These last ones also wag tail after each morsel.
Q: …but built into the contract an “escape clause”: if Kiev does not control all the regions, then Kiev is not to receive a cent.
R: So, if I’m a hoodlum with nothing to lose, why would I stop terrorizing those who’re ‘against’ me?
As an aside, I will never forget the picture of the 8 month pregnant lady, who was strangled with a phone cord on an office desk in Odessa
123abc,
There was a link to a YouTube video posted by New Insight (?) somewhere on this blog, couple days ago at most. With a headline “US to attack Russia in 2015”. Needless to say, I don’t have 2 hours to watch something like that. I wouldn’t give it 2 minutes.
Maybe Saker can tell you where that link is…
I disagree with your “declaration of war” thesis. The West is in no position to wage wars anymore, let alone a war on Russia. In fact, all this whining, yellling, threatening, and wringing of hands on the Western politicos’ part only highlights their near total impotence. That’s not a behaviour of serious people. I don’t look at what these morons say, I look at what’s happening to their capabilities to do things. The decline there is breathtaking, and is bound to only accelerate.
Russians don’t even have to do much, just wait until West self-destructs. I’ll predict France exiting the euro within 5 years and triggering its final demise within 10. Within 20 years the EU will fragment into several mini-blocks, all hating each other.
By concentrating on Russia and China, the US will completely miss the emergence of a real troublemaker of this century – India. But this is a subject of a separate discussion.
Anonymous @ 21-47.
I note that fortunately you still don’t understand, including the content of my comment.
The comparison with the cake lady is that you apparently share her notion of exceptionalism and have the pretention to think you know what is good for the Ukrainian people, and how the Russian state should/will act.
You are apparently unaware of the possible reaction to this of the Russian state and part of the Ukrainian people since they both “enjoyed” the benefit of such pretention throughout the 1990’s.
Maedhros,
You completely missed my point.
I am talking about the level of spending, but you are talking about the distribution of it.
Spending (federal, state, and local) at 40%of GDP is way excessive. The wastage is monumental.
If course, if you are a closet pinko Commie, then I get it – spending for you will always be insufficient.
I, on the other hand, always worked for myself, never asked Government for help, and I don’t want my money to be taken from me and transferred to you because you think it would suit your needs.
Crossvader, why “the emergence of a real troublemaker of this century – India”? I have to say it is pretty unexpected. I am aware it has similar system as US, that may not work as well as one think, but why trouble maker?
@ Crossvader 01 June, 2014 20:22
> America is at the weakest point in the last 130 years, Russia at strongest in 30 years
Such claims should be substantiated a little at least, otherwise you say platitudes.
1.
I’ve seen homeless people in the USA and rich in Russia.
I’ve seen super rich Californians and peasants of Russian villages.
2.
The USA was at 200 points on a scale 130 years ago, Russia at 50.
30 years ago the USA was at 250, Russia at 80.
Now the US is at the weakest point of 180 in 130 years and Russia at strongest at 90 points in the last 30 years.
Stop talking rubbish.
Anonymous @ 22:31
All the more reason for them to attack now rather than 2 or 3 years from now. The trend is clear so why wait for Russia to surpass you when attacking now MIGHT prevent her continued rise? Have you read Spengler on Asia Times? That is his common refrain, particularly with respect to Iran, and he is a noted neocon. Why wouldn’t the others feel the same way about Russia?
Anonymous (22.31)
130 years ago America was a “can do” country, manufacturing power and exporter of a first class, with lean, tough, strong, ambitious people, running finacial surpluses, no hungry or homeless despite absence of food stamps and Fanni Mae. Railroads wer built faster that it takes time today to approve a public restroom. No government debt to speak of. And on and on and on.
What do you have today? Read Jay Howard Kunstler’s blog and weep…
As for Russia, what was it in 1984? A country where you couldn’t buy a stick of crappy quality salami without standing in line for a half day. You’d wipe your butt with a newspaper. The world’s ugliest shoes and clothes would fall apart within a month. No travel abroad. I could continue forever. USSR fell apart for a reason.
So, if anyone here talks rubbish, it’s not me.
Anonymous @ 21:47
Unfortunately there is little more to be gained in this exchange. I sense a paucity of reasoning meaning that emotion has taken over. I hope that Russia is not so blind as to follow the path you have described. That would be the death us all.
Major Ipatiev GRU – good link in Russian:
http://mayoripatiev.ru/1400319172
If course, if you are a closet pinko Commie, then I get it….
=============================
I just got you, instead.
Anonymous (22.28)
First, because the only conventional way for the developing country to become the developed one is to manufacture goods for export to richer peoples.
That path is shut tight, probably for good. The West cannot absorb any more exports. It desparately needs to export itself.
Therefore, India can either reconcile with remaining poor or find another way. “Another way” means breaking out of the status quo, and that means crossing paths with the main guardian of the status quo, i.e. the USA.
Second, democracy is an outgrowth of prosperity. For a poor country, it’s an impediment and a break on growth. That’s why China outperforms India. Democracy is the costliest political system, and is too expensive for a poor country. India will have to go authoritarian or even totalitarian. It will have to abolish caste system, institute compulsory education for every child, and secure raw materials by force if need be.
The present global arrangement puts straightjacket on India’s ambitions. I don’t believe Indians will tolerate it indefinitely.
I’d add Egypt (I’ll predict annexation of Lybia and Sudan)to the list of future troublemakers as well. Too many people are packed into a tiny Nile delta there.
Anonymous (22.39)
Attack Russia? LOL.
That’s called “suicide out of fear of death”.
Good luck with that.
All this talk of currency ‘debasement’ is plain wrong.
And QE creates no new money. This is a myth peddled by people who don’t understand the system.
Just a heads up on a very good article on Ukraine’s kleptocracy by Sergii Leshchenko. It is called “Ukraine’s puppet masters: A typology of oligarchs” and is at the following address-
http://www.eurozine.com/articles/2014-05-15-leshchenko-en.html
Everybody’s attention is fixed on the conflict between the US/EU and Russia but after reading this article I am wondering if perhaps there might be another war going on in the background as Ukraine’s oligarchs are all angling for control and influence in the new Ukraine – or what is left of it. I suppose you could call it a sort of second-grade Games of Thrones in an eastern setting.
In the end, you can say that Ukraine will only progress when all the powers sit down and agree to come up with the finances to reform this country and put it into some decent shape. I do not believe that the US, the EU or Russia has the hundreds of billions that will be eventually required to do so but the power of these oligarchs must be broken first or most of the required aid will simply be siphoned off by them to the west. Then again, perhaps that is the plan. The Ukraine borrows the billions, the oligarchs loot it and ship it to the western banks, and the Ukrainian people are left with the debt to pay, even after selling off all the countrie’s infrastructure and resources on the cheap. It has happened before and is happening now elsewhere.
@jean-paul cousin de burbure
I agree with the objective. The Oligarchs must be smashed.
What percentage of the Western public could articulate this as both desirable and necessary? I doubt more than 1 in 20 people would fit this criteria.
You are very optimistic about our chances of ususrping the Oligarchs via the Internet. I think you’re kidding yourself. Without honest media we will end up exactly where we started. The publlic can’t make a rational decision until the media is ripped from the hands of the people who control it and that won’t happened without a revolution.
Even then, electronic voting is easily manipulated which is why it is being suggested as a possible solution. It is no solution at all until we deal with the underlying reality:
Two thirds of the people in our civilization are brainwashed mind slaves.
Your job is to try and deprogram them. It is no simpler of a task than deprogramming someone who has fallen into a cult. They will have to suffer terribly before even considering the possibility of escape.
@Vladimir Vladimirovich
Sure, Vladimir … you the faithful capitalist “partner” of your “western partners”…
Just give it “time” – and Ukraine will “solve” itself – all by itself…
Hundred years is absolutely nothing comparing to geological time…
And besides, by then, all the protagonists will be no more:
1) all the Bandera-tes will be six feet under (which elegantly solves your problem of de-nazification),
2) all the so inconvenient Russian inhabitants of the Ukie Southeast will be six feet under (some done in by Bandera-tes, some croaking of old age etc. … which solves your problem of them blaming you for not saving them and their families),
3) but the most beautiful thing of all is … that Your Majesty will then be six feet under too (which solves all your problems … with a “historical” bonus that anyone decent (… stupid) should thereafter abide by the old maxim “De mortuis nil nisi bonum” … even if an opportunistic mercantile son-of-a-bitch like you is in question…)
@Observer
Who are you? You hateful imposter? Can you not choose a more original Alias than plagarizing my ‘Observer’ alias?
Your vitriolic accusations against President Putin are bizarre, exaggerated, lacking in objectivity and bordering on hysteria.
Wow your comment is laden with violent emotion and irrationality. You’re hardly an “observer” when you’re getting so emotionally involved.
Brilliant analysis, as usual.
Many tanks, Saker.
It is the Anglo-Zionists, not Russia, who benefit from a civil war in Ukraine.
They will benefit much more if Russia can be pushed to intervene.
In the meantime, Russia must play for time and work to de-escalate as much as possible. That’s what they’re doing.
Putin’s caution so far has spared the lives of many in this conflict, as brutal as it has been. Things are starting to reach a tipping point however. It looks like Strelkov and his Novorussian Defense Force are starting to find their footing. Remember, there was no significant Anti-Junta military force to speak as late as the beginning of April, that in a period of two months they managed to weather such odds and are now giving the Junta a lot of trouble even in the face of mounting casualties speaks volumes about their staying power. And all stories about the Chechens and the Cossacks aside, most of the men do seem to be locals from Donetsk and Lugansk.
Now I may be presuming here, but these guys are fighting on the bases of integration with the Russian Federation, because in their view that is what is going to provide their homes with the most security. I will not speak of Kharkov or the other Eastern Oblasts at this time because I do not know what is going on there, but in Donetsk and Lugansk, the general tenor is towards not just pro-Russian government, but outright reunification.
All of the most informed comments here seem to be united on this point: Putin’s desired outcome is a united but federalized Ukraine where the Eastern Oblasts have the power to wheel in the Pro-EU desires of Lvov and other parts of Western Ukraine, but what if that becomes untenable as the rebellion in the East continues? You have a rapidly expanding body of armed men who are pro-Russian but at the same time at odds with Putin’s strategy. The behavior of the Junta forces makes it increasingly unlikely that the citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk will ever go back to Kiev to form any sort of government. People have made a whole lot of hay out of just how many people in those Oblasts voted in the referendums, but one thing is clear: these people are not any more enthused for a unitary Ukraine now than they were on May 11th, and almost certainly even more keen for reunification with Russia.
So what is going to happen to them when the Junta troops go home? And it seems likely that the Junta troops will be going home before the end of the year. The creation of a ‘Mega-Transnistria’, one directly on the border of Russia, cannot bode well for the long-term stability of the region. To say nothing of the divisions it might create within Ukrainian and Russian society. You really do not want six and a half million people who exist in a state of legal limbo because no government wants to recognize their political will. As far as I can tell, no one has seriously been addressing this question on this website. As for what is going on in the Kremlin, the only thing I will not is that RT and other media organs of the Russian government have been very quiet about this since around May 20th, when Putin announced he would recognize the Kiev-organized elections.
The problem as I see it is that Putin and his clique are very uncomfortable with the idea of grassroots Russian nationalism because it interferes with their programs of ‘controlled-burn’ and ‘starving the (US/Kiev) Beast’, but the time is rapidly approaching where they have to address it. Their response to it will be at least as important to the resolution of this crisis as the collapse of the Kiev Junta and the economic health of the United States.
@Crossvader
I watched the entire interview with Evgeny Fedorov and judge his insight into the deeper dynamics of history, politics, and war worth the time and effort to ascertain. Fedorov defines the so-called color revolutions as a new form of warfare on the the cheap. So, yes…the USA is attacking the Ukraine and plans a color revolution for Russia next year. Perhaps, it is a virtual war of media and finance, but none the less it is war to destroy or subjugate another people or culture by whatever method. The ‘Empire’ has perfected this method of war by blackmail, bribery, and assassination. There is a tendency for those whose concept of war is formed by movies and stories of mechanized motor divisions or cruise missiles to discard the ‘mafia’ war tactics employed so effectively by the ‘Empire’ in Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and the Ukraine.
Fedorov also has a very interesting insight into the problem managerial war encounters in the Donetsk and Lughansk Republics. There are no government minsters, departments, agencies, etc. to compromise by blackmail, bribery, or assassination. He describes the new Republics as pure in the sense that the state is a people’s army, hence beyond the reach of war on the cheap.
Anyway, I consider the interview to be well worth the time, as it provides a way of resistance to the methods of war perfected by the State Department, CIA, NGO, etc in the last several decades. Fedorov does not think the Russian military should intervene in the Ukraine, as people are only willing to engage in people’s war when they are faced with machine guns and fire. The hard truth is why should Russia send troops to fight for people who won’t fight for themselves. I see 100 recruits are joining the people’s army of the Donbass each day. This on the ground people’s army should make short work of Rinat Akmentov and mercenary soldiers of the ‘Empire’.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0zRD-Ulv2s