Dear friends,
I just took a short break from my life in “meatspace” to comment upon the great news of the day: Russia is introducing a full 12 months embargo on the import of beef, pork, fruits and vegetables, poultry, fish, cheese, milk and dairy products from the European Union, the United States, Australia, Canada and the Kingdom of Norway. Russia is also introducing an airspace ban against European and US airlines that fly over our airspace to Eastern Asia, namely, the Asia-Pacific Region and is considering changing the so-called Russian airspace entry and exit points for European scheduled and charter flights. Furthermore, Russia is ready to revise the rules of using the trans-Siberian routes, and will also discontinue talks with the US air authorities on the use of the trans-Siberian routes. Finally, starting this winter, we may revoke the additional rights issued by the Russian air authorities beyond the previous agreements. This is such an interesting and major development that it requires a much more subtle analysis than just the crude calculation of how much this might cost the EU or US. I will attempt no such calculation, but instead I would point out the following elements:
First, this is a typically Russian response. There is a basic rule which every Russian kid learns in school, in street fights, in the military or elsewhere: never promise and never threaten – just act. Unlike western politicians who spent months threatening sanctions, the all the Russians did was to say, rather vaguely, that they reserve the right to reply. And then, BANG!, this wide and far-reaching embargo which, unlike the western sanctions, will have a major impact on the West, but even much more so on Russia (more about that in an instant). This “no words & only action” tactic is designed to maximize deterrence of hostile acts: since the Russians do not clearly spell out what they could do in retaliation, God only knows what they could do next! :-) On top of that, to maximize insecurity, the Russians only said that these were the measures agreed upon, but not when they would be introduced, partially or fully, and against whom. They also strongly implied that other measure were under consideration in the pipeline.
Second, the sanctions are wonderfully targeted. The Europeans have acted like spineless and brainless prostitutes in this entire business, they were opposed to sanctions from day 1, but they did not have the courage to tell that to Uncle Sam, so each time they ended up caving in. Russia’s message to the EU is simple: you wanna be Uncle Sam’s bitch? Pay the price! This embargo will especially hurt southern Europe (Spain, France, Italy, Greece) whose agricultural production will greatly suffer from it These countries also happen to be the weakest in the EU. By hitting them, Russia is maximizing the inevitable friction inside the EU over sanctions against Russia.
Third, not only will EU carriers suffer from much higher costs and flight times on the very important Europe to Asia route, but the Asian carriers will not, giving the latter a double competitive advantage. How is that for a way to reward one side while hurting the other? The EU got one Russian airline in trouble over its flights to Crimea (Dobrolet) and for that the entire EU airlines community could end being at a huge disadvantage vis-à-vis its Asian counterparts.
Fourth, Russia used these sanctions to do something vital for the Russian economy. Let me explain: after the collapse of the USSR the Russian agriculture was in disarray, and the Eltsin only made things worse. Russian farmers simply could not compete against advanced western agro-industrial concerns which benefited from huge economies of scale, from expensive and high-tech chemical and biological research, which had a full chain of production (often through large holdings), and a top quality marketing capability. The Russian agricultural sector badly, desperately, needed barriers and tariffs to be protected form the western capitalist giants and, instead, Russia voluntarily abided by the terms of the WTO and then eventually became member. Now Russia is using this total embargo to provide a crucially needed time for the Russian agriculture to invest and take up a much bigger share on the Russian market. Also, keep in mind that Russian products are GMO-free, and that they have much less preservatives, antibiotics, colors, taste enhancers, or pesticides. And since they are local, they don’t need to be brought in by using the kind of refrigeration/preservation techniques which typically make products taste like cardboard. In other words, Russian agricultural products taste much better, but that is not enough to complete. This embargo now gives them a powerful boost to invest, develop and conquer market shares.
Fifth, there are 100 countries which did not vote with the US on Crimea. The Russians have already announced that these are the countries with which Russia will trade to get whatever products it cannot produce indigenously. A nice reward for standing up to Uncle Sam.
Sixth, small but sweet: did you notice that EU sanctions were introduced for 3 months only, “to be reviewed” later? By introducing a 12 months embargo Russia also sends a clear message: who do you think will benefit from this mess?
Seventh, it is plain wrong to calculate that EU country X was exporting for Y million dollars to Russia and to then conclude that the Russian embargo will cost Y million dollars to EU country X. Why is it wrong? Because the non-sale of these product with create a surplus which will then adversely affect the demand or, if the production is decreased, this will affect production costs (economies of scale). Conversely, for a hypothetical non-EU country Z a contract with Russia might mean enough cash to invest, modernize and become more competitive, not only in Russia, but on the world market, including the EU.
Eighth, the Baltic countries have played a particularly nasty role in the entire Ukrainian business and now some of their most profitable industries (such as fisheries), which were 90% dependent on Russia, will have to shut down. These countries are already a mess, but now they will hurt even more. Again, the message to them is simple: you wanna be Uncle Sam’s bitch? Pay the price!
Ninth, and this is really important, what is happening is a gradual decoupling of Russia from the western economies. The West severed some of the financial, military and aerospace ties, Russia severed the monetary, agricultural and industrial ones. Keep in mind that the US/EU market is a sinking one, affected by deep systemic problems and huge social issues. In a way, the perfect comparison is the Titanic whose orchestra continued to play music while the sink was sinking. Well, Russia is like a passenger who is told that the Titanic’s authorities have decided to disembark him at the next port. Well, gee, too bad, right?
‘clock’ by Josetxo Ezcurra |
Last, but most definitely not least, this trade-war, combined with the West’s hysterical russophobia, is doing for Putin a better PR campaign than anything the Kremlin could have dreamed of. All his PR people need to tell the Russian population is the truth: “we did everything right, we played it exactly by the book, we did everything we could to deescalate this crisis and all we asked for was to please not allow the genocide of our people in Novorussia – and what was the West’s response to that? An insane hate campaign, sanctions against us and unconditional support for thegenocidal Nazis in Kiev“. Furthermore, as somebody who carefully follows the Russian media, I can tell you that what is taking place today feels a lot like, paraphrasing Clausewitz, the “a continuation of WWII, but by other means”, in other words a struggle to the end between two regimes, two civilizations, which cannot coexist on the same planet and who are locked in struggle to death. In these circumstances, expect the Russian people to support Putin even more.
In other words, in a typical Judo move, Putin has used the momentum of the the West’s Russia-basing and Putin-bashing campaign to his advantage across the board: Russia will benefit from this economically and politically. Far from being threatened by some kind of “nationalistic Maidan” this winter, Putin’s regime is being strengthened by his handling of the crisis (his ratings are higher than ever before).
Yes, of course, the USA have shown they they have a very wide array of capabilities to hurt Russia, especially through a court system (in the US and EU) which is as subservient to the US deep state as the courts in the DPRK are to their own “Dear Leader” in Pyongyang. And the total loss of the Ukrainian market (for both imports and exports) will also hurt Russia. Temporarily. But in the long wrong, this situation is immensely profitable for Russia.
In the meantime, the Maidan is burning again, Andriy Parubiy has resigned, a the Ukies are shelling hospital and churches in Novorussia. What else is knew?
As for Europe, it is shell-shocked and furious. Frankly, my own Schadenfreude knows no bounds this morning. Let these arrogant non-entities like Van Rompuy, Catherine Ashton, Angela Merkel or José Manuel Barroso deal with the shitstorm their stupidity and spinelessness have created.
In the USA, Jen Psaki seems to be under the impression that the Astrakhan region is on the Ukrainian border, while the Russian Defense Ministry plans to “open special accounts in social networks and video hosting resources so that the US State Department and the Pentagon will be able to receive unbiased information about Russian army’s actions“.
Will all that be enough to suggest to the EU leaders that they have put their money on the wrong horse?
The Saker
PS: have to leave again. Will be back on Saturday afternoon.
Russia must have done some serious planning for this. It is a huge blow. Europe is still completely stunned by it and can’t quite grasp how hard they have been hit.
Europe is a collcection of corrupt elites and subservient moronic politiciasn ruling over a population too drowsy to rise.
To Nora 08 August, 2014 12:40
Problems for the Netherlands are reported:
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/744165
As for the fox, he not only invaded the house, he also twice came close when my son and his friends had a BBQ this week and was caught on camera only a couple of feet from the table. As people in the wilderness know, this is abnormal behavior for a fox. My regards to Mister Nora.
Belatedly, but, Saker, congratulations on your anniversary, for you and your wife, who is generous enough to share you with us.
Have a good time out, both!
Trouble is Saker; the US was in the process of doing a free trade agreement with the EU back in 2012.
@Feng,
We concur with the statement above via @james@wpc and also feel truely honoured to be included in such company, especially being bolded. btw: thx James!
Now, back to the topic at hand, we have an update to our previous series of posts. First of all, we would like to offer an apology of sorts for posting those seemingly redundant comments but please follow us on the reasoning and the results as they go hand in hand.
We have noticed a pattern emerging, especially with regards to the way the CBC has been “updating” their AP articles through the day related to Ukraine topics. Some of this is explained in the summary article that we posted yesterday evening. Since there are many ‘individuals” within our collective, sometimes folks “see” different things depending on the method of access (handheld, smartphone, tablet, pc, etc) as well as the time of day. Thank goodness we caught the updates midstream and had the ability to copypasta what was published into the comments here for “safe keeping” as well as broader dissemination of information with a trustworthy ally, aka: Saker.
Yesterday, others noticed as the day progressed that what was copypasta’d here, was not what was on the CBC article itself. This caused a bit of “fact” confusion between us within our collaboration. This provided us and opportunity to acquire the necessary “facts” to present this to those in a more power position, to seek further “official” inquiries behind the veil. Not only that but we caught this phenomenon in another article published on the CBC that involved the Canadian Press and Reuters.
What this means, in essence, is that we found and documented 4 (four) MSM conglomerated working in collusion, spreading false propaganda at one time in 2 (two) separate articles, plus caught a US media outlet puppeting the same changes on behalf of the AP.
Not only does this prove that there is no such thing as a “free” press but it also proves collusion and a conspiracy at the highest levels to suppress the truth as well as facts in order to further sell a potential war based upon fraud and deception to the general public.
In addition to the above, someone decided to point to the Saker’s site as a comment within one of those CBC articles. Shortly after we published our article directly aimed at the CBC, via our handy-dandy tweetable title, the comments began to drastically shift and the “story” began to implode upon itself which prompted an immediate closing of the comments section by CBC staffers.
So, @Feng, if that’s what you mean by a troll, yup, we trolled the neocon narrative and shifted it to the favour of “We the People” against the odds. Surely they have reached the point of no return, but now all we need to do is await the blowback ’cause “someone” has received the message of what soft power really is. It may not seem like much outside the fold but our contacts that have already infiltrated themselves within the Harper Regime are reporting that the Regime Loyalists are getting rather nervous in their own skin.
For those that may be interested, check out our rude and crude summary of evidence…
https://dumpharper.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/cbcnews-busted-re-nato-vs-ukraine-vs-russia-gpc-ndp-lpc-cpc/
https://dumpharper.wordpress.com/2014/08/07/cbcnews-busted-re-nato-vs-ukraine-vs-russia-gpc-ndp-lpc-cpc/
Quant à Carl Bildt, on pourrait se tromper un peu en ce qui concerne la grandeur de ses “prouesses” politiques. Né dans une famille de la haute bourgeoisie en 1949 — c’est-à-dire un an après la signature par la Suède de l’accord de participation au plan Marshall — il ne lui a pas fallu longtemps pour se rendre compte de la magnanimité de l’impéralisme américain et la bestialité de chaque adversaire de celui-là. En fait, dans les années 50 la Suède prit rapidement la tête en Europe occidentale sur la route de la servitude politique, idéologique et culturelle aux USA, malgré la pretendue “neutralité” en dehors de l’OTAN. Les merdias suédois à l’époque étaient le même monceau d’ordures qu’aujourd’hui. Tout court, l’enfance et l’adolescence de Carl Bildt ont été fort marquées par le même tissu de mensonges imbéciles qui 60 ans plus tard est en train de perdre tout son éclat.
C’était au début des années 80 avec l’assaut néolibéral que notre bon vieux Carl Bildt gravit les échelons de la politique. En Novembre 1981, la bourgeoisie réactionnaire fût bénie par une très belle surprise: un sous-marin soviétique qui s’était égaré dans les eaux territoriales suédoises. Alors, Carl Bildt a très bien compris l’ésprit des presstitutes et les ont cultivées durant quatre longs années comme “chasseur de sous-marins russes”.
Krollchem said…
Here is a GREAT German opposition politician lecture to Merkel in opposition to the Ukraine war with warnings about the consequences for Europe
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIi4a7ri-dc
Is that Sahra Wagenknecht? Fantastic performance, professional, articulate, passionate and she went for Merkel’s jugular and mentioned Odessa.
Marcus Sweden – I so agree with you and I am a once loyal Conservative from England and never thought I would be rooting for Russia. Absolutely hate the way she is being bullied by the USA and EU. Plus, so proud of how President Putin and his team are playing the game of chess. Never boring. Good luck Eastern Ukraine and so sorry our leaders are the cause.
The tone of this article is misplaced.
Russia is NOT facing an aggressive ‘West’. Instead it is facing an aggressive, degenerate and dangerous cabale of ‘elites’ most widely identified as the New World Order.
The writer should recognise that the NWO hates Western culture & Western freedom as much as it hates Russia.
The NWO has already destroyed Western freedom & culture.
It’s best chance of success against Russia is to turn this into an East/West conflict and let unintelligent tribalism do the rest.
So far it isn’t working as western populations ALL despise 7 distrust their own political class while they admire Russia.
The Swedish gentleman at the top of the thread is not unusual; he is very common amongst educated Westerners.
I’ve been rooting for Russia since they stopped the slaughter of Syrians by Nato forces.
The writer has all the facts but the East/West focus is misplaced.
I would like to suggest, for example; using the terms Unelected European Political Class for swine like Rumpoy.
You could even call Cameron ‘Britain’s unelected PM’ as he did not win a General Election.
The Western political class are as popular as homosexual marriage (2million marched against in Paris), please don’t give the impression that they actually represent ‘the West’.
John Richardson
Military sanctions to be expanded by the linear thinkers that run the deep state.
It is likely that the US will punish Russia by not purchasing Russian helicopters for the Afghanistan army:
http://www.stripes.com/news/us/dunford-urges-congress-to-approve-russian-helicopter-deal-for-afghan-air-force-1.293927
Look for Russia to close the rail transport route through Russia that supplies 40% of US supplies in Afghanistan.
http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Security-Watch/2014/0304/Punish-Russia-Why-some-Pentagon-officials-would-prefer-restraint.-video
Blowback hurts.
@ CAHR 08 August, 2014 20:53
So, @Feng, if that’s what you mean by a troll
Sorry I didn’t understand it in the first place.
This troll is a very serious one, and funny!
“Russia is NOT facing an aggressive ‘West’. Instead it is facing an aggressive, degenerate and dangerous cabale of ‘elites’ most widely identified as the New World Order.
The writer should recognise that the NWO hates Western culture & Western freedom as much as it hates Russia.”
Typical whining of the Western petty bourgeoisie that used to be very happy with the powers that be but who now — correctly — notes that the decline of Western imperialism is taking its toll at home too, yet still clings stubbornly to the system’s ideological delusions: “Western culture & Western freedom”. Capitalism has ALWAYS made excessive use of rape, theft, and murder. Expect no mercy whatsoever, Whitey.
Anonymous 19:43
You might consider canning and/or freezing as much as you’re able this year — what a bounty! I wouldn’t want to be a grower or shipper though, especially with those huge greenhouses. And watch out for next year if this goes on, bc they’ll have to grow less, right?
And Mr. Nora sends you back his regards, along with his thought that the fox might either have been someone’s pet, or escaped from a grower, bc that certainly is unusual behavior. Fwiw, it does look like you could tame him if you want — he obviously responds to food!
@Feng, sorry but we’re not here to impress you personally nor entertain you personally. BUT, like they say, opinions are like @ssholes, everyone has at least one, lol. {drum roll+high hat} :)
@Saker et @Everyone,
On a more serious note, our collective collaboration would like go thank ya for the supplementals and submissions over the past several days in particular. These have allowed us gonot only keep at least one of the CBC articles in our summary expose as the top “Most Viewed” article even though the comment section has been closed. This is not an easy feat considering the CBC and Harper Regime trolls are desperately attempting to “push” the Ebola scare and Iraq shenanigans in order to drown out the growing opposition to the sanctions and anti-Russia propaganda campaign.
Since the pro-Kiev groups here have finally been told, by the Kiev Post of all sources, some of the grizzly facts about the lies, corruption, corrosive actions and dirty deeds of the coup Regime, that counter the so called facts they have been led to believe, they find themselves mired in an emotional quagmire.
Surely, the Harper Regime knows no bounds in its ideological endeavours and will more than likely continue providing rhetoric and “non” lethal aid to the wrong side, just like Syria. This is a given, at least until such time as their party fractures. The Opposition in Parliament have thus far been controlled with the help of yellow journalism, we must continue to push the facts to break the majority party by appealing to the moderate non-neocons. Difficult? Yes. Impossible? No.
Thus, we will employ their own strategies and taglines against them. They are either “with us, or against us”, therefore we must “win their hearts and minds”.
We all face the same neocon ideological threat, no matter the place of our geographical location. Their arrogance and hubris has boomeranged. They felt empowered within their own echo chambers to not only align themselves publicly but to self-identify with each other. It would seem as if the deep state and/or PTB that put them in govt, may well eventually turn on them.
This may be an overly optimistic viewpoint, but “We the People” may turn the tide. Far to many global capitalists/oligarchs have far to much to lose in this game of neochicken from an angry and loosely organized populous that they cannot control.
That being stated, let’s conrinue or fight for whats right and keep our eyes on the prize. Our kids and grandkids and so on deserve a bright future and are reliant upon us to assure that future exists, period.
Propaganda is as propaganda does, so let’s utilize it efficiently and effectively…
DumpHarper!
Thanks for all the informative links posted by many people here. If you are a US citizen and posting here, you are one of the few who even have a clue as to the truth of the situation in the world. Just keep talking to people like my friend’s roommate who said that the people in Gaza were killing their own children and blaming it on the Israelis Now that discussion almost got ugly but I was whispering–“agree to disagree ’cause you need the rent”. And check out David Remnick in the New Yorker who posted a sly little attack piece on Russia( watch his clever use of charged adjectives throughout) under the guise of lofty intellectualisms. His adoration of an ex ambassador probable CIA operative McFaul/McFoul borders on blatant hagiography. He quotes an embarrassing confession of faith from this guy at the end of the article Must write a letter calling him on his very obvious biases including total blanking out of the story of the origins of the regime in Kiev. What a hack job placed in the center of what used to be the premier literary magazine of the US.
These sanctions seem to have triggered some common sense in a German journalist (finally).
http://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kommentare/essay-in-englisch-the-west-on-the-wrong-path/10308406.html
Ildar Murtazin made his point at the Echo of Moscow site with the following interesting analogy: “You come to a store, your salary in the pocket. The seller right at the door starts being rude to you, strongly emphasizing that this store is not for you. He reluctantly agrees to sell you something. I don’t know about you, but I would not go shopping in such a store”.
I love the analogy of the rude shopkeeper abusing his customer! By the way I live in New Zealand and we have a lot of cheese, fine apples, and grass fed beef/lamb for sale. Also, I am practising my own individual sanctions on Mcdonalds, Coca-Cola, Starbucks ( too be honest I never eat/drink this unhealthy crap anyway), American grown grapes, tasteless fruit etc. If there aren’t any other grapes on sale, I can do without! Maybe thinking consumers in the West can play sanctions too!
Let’s walk the talk… we cannot sit inactive waiting for Putin to save us where ever we are in the world. We can all do something!
This is my challenge.
Ildar Murtazin made his point at the Echo of Moscow site with the following interesting analogy: “You come to a store, your salary in the pocket. The seller right at the door starts being rude to you, strongly emphasizing that this store is not for you. He reluctantly agrees to sell you something. I don’t know about you, but I would not go shopping in such a store. Even if it is conveniently located, even if it sells a product that I like and is historically well known to me – I will go and choose a similar product from another manufacturer, and at another store, where they will not be so rude to me. That is the wonderful thing about the market, there is always an alternative to various products – always.”
I love the analogy of the rude shopkeeper abusing his customer! By the way I live in New Zealand and we have a lot of cheese, fine apples, and grass fed beef/lamb for sale. Also, I am practising my own individual sanctions on Mcdonalds, Coca-Cola, Starbucks ( too be honest I never eat/drink this unhealthy crap anyway), American grown grapes, tasteless fruit etc. If there aren’t any other grapes, I can do without!
Maybe thinking consumers in the West can play sanctions too!