There is an interesting idea being floated around by the Iranian government and other circles. The idea is to sue Israel and/or Israeli leader for war crimes, crimes against humanity and even genocide. Sounds silly? Think again.
It all began when the government of Iran asked the ICC to issue warrants for the arrest of Israeli leaders. Soon thereafter a US professor, Francis Anthony Boyle, has offered the Iranian President a plan according to which he would open a legal case against Israel. Boyle has interesting views on this topic (see his article about the legal basis for prosecution) and his offer could do something very useful: internationalize the effort to sue the Israelis.
I find this very interesting. First, it shows that Iran is willing to actually do something to help the Palestinians (proving the Iran bashers wrong, yet again). Second, while the actual probability of seeing Olmert or Livni sitting next to Karadzic in the Hague is remote, there is a huge potential for all sorts of legal headaches for the Israeli leaders in their travels. Think about it, literally any judge in any country might issue an arrest warrant for any Israeli leader (even without an ICC warrant, by the way). Of course, the vast majority governments of the world will immediately bail out any Isareli official in trouble (after all, who would dare alienate the USraelian Empire?), but still – imagine the embarrasment. Thirdly, with the USraelien Empire in decline there just might be a country where such an arrest would “stick” and where the charge would actually go to a court (remember Pinochet).
Lastly, this example shows that there are things a government can do to help the Palestinians short of declaring a war on Israel. The fact that *all* the Arab governments are simply “sitting on their hands” is not due the a lack of options but to a shameful lack of will and care.
i would like to hear your thoughts on the following issues:
1. current military strategy: hamas seems to be resilient and creative in terms of riding out the ‘shock and awe’ and expanding the range and power of qassam volleys. it is also prepared (and preparing) for a ground invasion, which would “level the playing field” and inflict major casualties on the IDF. in these ways, hamas has successfully replicated the military strategy of hezbollah in 2006.
2. on the issue of propaganda and PR, it is interesting how nasrallah and al manar have assumed a leadership role — describing the context, analyzing the military conflict, identifying weak links in the “conspiracy”, and directing the protest movement, especially against Egypt and the regimes.
3. on the same issue, it is interesting that Ishmael Haniye has now replicated the “nasrallah model” by releasing a taped video message on the state and direction of the conflict.
4. now that israel has pretty much exhausted its list of bombing targets with no sign of military or political accomplishment, it is indeed imperative that hamas resist a ceasefire on israeli terms. hamas must remain steadfast until israel is FORCED into a ceasefire on punishing terms, including the full opening of the rafah gate.
5. the apparent failure of israel to win a war even against the relatively weak hamas demonstrates the real turning of the tide. israel is very weak in the regional balance of power and would surely be defeated or forced into a corner if a regional war commenced. nasrallah was ahead of the game when he predicted that the next regional war would result in major Israeli losses. If Israel is dumb enough to launch a ground war, Hezbollah and Syria would be smart, from their point of view, to go on the offensive and to finish off old business. israel cannot win a regional war, and will not succumb to international pressure, so why prolong the inevitable?
6. the coincidence of the war and Ashura.
7. given the above, it seems that the stars are slowly aligning for justice in palestine. as bad and horrific as the last week was, and as bad as it will get, the deep forces of history and justice are turning against israel and the zionist project.
@anonymous: I will try to share some thoughts we you on each point, but these are little more then “guestimates” because I will tell you upfront that I do not know Hamas nearly as well as I know Hezbollah and it is hard for me to try to predict what Hamas will or will not do. They have often disappointed me in the past but I keep hoping for their ‘graduation’ to a Hezbollah model. Anyway, here is some of my reactions to the issues you raise:
1. current military strategy: hamas seems to be resilient and creative in terms of riding out the ‘shock and awe’ and expanding the range and power of qassam volleys. it is also prepared (and preparing) for a ground invasion, which would “level the playing field” and inflict major casualties on the IDF. in these ways, hamas has successfully replicated the military strategy of hezbollah in 2006.
If only that was really so… Israel did not kill a single Hezbollah leader in 2006, whereas in Gaza they just killed the top political Hamas leader who refused to leave his house and just sat there with his family waiting for a bomb. Very courageous, for sure, but is that smart? Then there is the fact that Hamas is still toying around with the idea of a ceasefire, something which Hezbollah would never have agreed to at this stage of the conflict. No, though there are doing better than in the past, Hamas still is a long way from having Hezbollah’s sophistication.
2. on the issue of propaganda and PR, it is interesting how nasrallah and al manar have assumed a leadership role — describing the context, analyzing the military conflict, identifying weak links in the “conspiracy”, and directing the protest movement, especially against Egypt and the regimes.
Yes, and that is because Hamas simply has no media strategy to speak of. It only makes sense that al-Manar and Nasrallah are taking center stage, there is nobody there. Let me give you an exampple: Hamas’ military wing released as statement a couple of days ago, buyt the text in English is nowhere to be found on the Internet. Not only that, but when I wrote to the Ezzedine al-Qassam English forum’s (http://www.almoltaqa.ps/english/) organizers asking for a copy they never even replied. I signed up for the forum, only to be booted out even before I could post anything. Such flaming idiocy does not bode well for Hamas’ PR capabilities…
3. on the same issue, it is interesting that Ishmael Haniye has now replicated the “nasrallah model” by releasing a taped video message on the state and direction of the conflict.
Really? I have not seen that video yet. Could you please send me a link to it?
4. now that israel has pretty much exhausted its list of bombing targets with no sign of military or political accomplishment, it is indeed imperative that hamas resist a ceasefire on israeli terms. hamas must remain steadfast until israel is FORCED into a ceasefire on punishing terms, including the full opening of the rafah gate.
I fully agree. Hamas needs to get over with this once and for all. My guess is that the Israelis will invade Gaza in the next 24-48 hours and will succeeded in surrounding the main urban areas in 3-4 days. Hamas should pull back inside the urban centers and then seriously fight back. There can only be one goal for Hamas at this point: forcing the Israeli do “declare victory and leave” *UNCONDITIONALLY*. Israel has to be defeated at all costs as even the future of the West Bank will depend on the outcome of the current war. Hamas also most realize that it should not talk to the Egyptians any more but should denounce Mubarak at least 2-3 more vehemently than it denounces the Israelis. It is Egypt that Hamas’ PR should focus on.
5. the apparent failure of israel to win a war even against the relatively weak hamas demonstrates the real turning of the tide.
That is WAY too early to call. This is far from over and Israel still can win this one if Hamas makes the wrong move
israel is very weak in the regional balance of power and would surely be defeated or forced into a corner if a regional war commenced. nasrallah was ahead of the game when he predicted that the next regional war would result in major Israeli losses. If Israel is dumb enough to launch a ground war, Hezbollah and Syria would be smart, from their point of view, to go on the offensive and to finish off old business. israel cannot win a regional war, and will not succumb to international pressure, so why prolong the inevitable
I disagree. Lauching a major conventional war against Israel will make things far easier for the Israelis and that is exactly the kind of war they are good at. No, what the Resistance needs to do is to gradually carve up small pockets which escape Israeli control. First Lebanon, then Gaza, then the West Bank, then possibly Egpyt, then Jordan, etc. The Resistance must do all this without ever presenting a target to the Isareli conventional forces. Simultaneously, it needs to lauch a determined anti-Apartheid movement *INSIDE* Israel proper, demanding equal rights and one man one vote the the Palestinian population which holds Israeli citizenship. These two pronged strategies will do much more to weaken Israel than any (futile and immoral) terror campaigns or (equally futile and immoral) conventional wars.
6. the coincidence of the war and Ashura.
It’s exactly that- a coincidence. And remembre – the vast majority of Palestinians, including Hamas, are Sunni.
7. given the above, it seems that the stars are slowly aligning for justice in palestine. as bad and horrific as the last week was, and as bad as it will get, the deep forces of history and justice are turning against israel and the zionist project.
Yes, this is the beginning of the end for the Zionist project, but the end will be a long one and patience is crucial here. There is no way to force a solution in the short/middle term yet, it will take a lot of time and steadfastness to make that happen, and it will really only happen with the Jews in Israel finally see the Zionist ideology for what it is: an abhorrent racist and quasi-medieval abomination which has heaped immense suffering on the entire region including the Jews themselves.
At the end of the road, this is a battle for the hearts and minds of everybody in Palestine and that takes a lot of time.
HTH
The Saker
Off Topic : About AL jazeera coverage of the Massacre in Gaza , it has to be very very good , Press tv (and AL ALAM both Iranian) are doing an excellent job if not better . try Press tv if you dont not understand Arabic . AL Jazeera is doing a fantastic Job .
I’m sad, real sad reading latest posts and comments here on this blog.
Instead of “cooled” views or reviews of events and participating forces, I am reading amators’ gibberish. The more so the discussion’s focus centers on IDF or Israel.
Let me play a role of “advocatus diaboli” on this scene.
1) Israel has to be defeated at all costs as even the future of the West Bank will depend on the outcome of the current war.
The Saker, even at the cost of annihilation of Palestine population?! Are you mad?!
Do you have a family there? Would you like to go there to help “the cause”? Are you ready to sacrify your life?
Your words: Hamas should pull back inside the urban centers and then seriously fight back.
Do you think that using hospitals as defense points is justified? I hope you thought about allowing Palestines to leave the encircled population areas first, but didn’t say so…
The “snag” is that Hamas proved its neglect of human life before. They stopped deliveries from outside many times, and didn’t allow transfer of wounded civilians to Egyptian hospitals. (I hope I will not be accused of Zionist propaganda this time.)
2) IDF’s “weakness”.
It seems to me that some of you underestimate Israeli firepower and ability to learn. I do not believe, I KNOW, that IDF can fight three wars at one time – Egypt+Hamas, Lebanon+Hezbollah, Syria+Jordan. Not mentioning that to make that happen Hamas plus Hesbollah would have to envade Israel (probably on Toyotas or bicycles or donkey carts).
If I were in IDF I would use all means to win the three wars – I would annihilate all military and civilian authority centers. ALL. The remaining military units, were it Egyptian or Syrian, would lay their arm the moment they knew they are on their own – without political and military backup, control, and authorities. You bet.
In short I am alpalled by the ease you speak on Palestinians’ lives and their future. I suggest more humility. No one of you is gonna fight for them.
3) One of this blog commentators expressed his disappointment recently saying that “the small number of protesters in Arab countries is pathetic” (something like that). Probably he had before his eyes the vision of million head throngs from former TV transmissions.
The funny (or sad) side of his remark was that FOE THE FIRST TIME he saw the REAL support for Hamas (or Palestinians)! Not government and secret services induced or inforced throngs of protesters. The picture of which everyone of us remeber from TVs for the last 30 years.
Regards
@p202: sadly, there is so much nonsense in your post that I will kindly completely ignore it’s substance. Your tone however I will address. Simply put – if you cannot discuss things intelligently and without hyperbole or condescending arrogance then I would urge you to find some other blog more compatible with that kind of antics.
The Saker
@The Saker
Wishfull thinking never proved or won anything, not in real life.
I kindly accepted your civil hint what to do.
Best wishes to you all.
P2O2
p202: best to you too! bye.
Hey saker, you want to read this
@anonymous: yes, thanks!
If Hizbollah fucked us up
And made us run with our tails between our legs
Lets pound our chests to the prisoners of Gaza Hell yeah
If all our threats to pulverise Iran serves only as comic relief
Lets snuff the lives out of the Jabaliyans Hell yeah
If our illusion of invincibility is forever shattered
Lets flatten Rafa Hell yeah
When our neurotic and imaginery superiority is forever rendered moot
Lets show the defenceless of Khan Yunis how brave we are Hell yeah
If we are terrified of taking on the soldiers of Hamas
Let’s send in F-16s and Apaches Hell yeah
If the hand of time is dealing our Zionist dream a cruel blow
Let the wretched of Deir al Balah feel the full force of our frustration. Hell yeah
If the knowledge that taking on Iran would sound the death knell of our racist project
Lets have an orgy while the defenceless of Al Shati are incinerated. Hell yeah
We are the soldiers of the IDF
Forward we march, except when confronted by Hizbullah. Oh yeah
We are the proudest of ethnic cleansers
We wear that badge with honour and pride. Fuck yeah
@Robert: this is GREAT!! I am re-printing this on the front page ASAP!
The Saker