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Posts From The Saker

UNSC Resolution 2118 – a half-full glass?

I have carefully parsed UNSC Res 2118 and while I did not find any great surprises in its contents, I would qualify it as a half-full glass, meaning that while this resolution does not fix any of the issues which I had identified in the Kerry-Lavrov agreements (see here, here, here and here), it at least does not exacerbate them either and that, in itself, is definitely a plus.   Why?Because

Security Council requires Scheduled Destruction of Syria’s Chemical Weapons, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2118 (2013)

Department of Public Information • News and Media Division • New York Security Council requires Scheduled Destruction of Syria’s Chemical Weapons, Unanimously Adopting Resolution 2118 (2013) Deeply outraged by the use of chemical weapons on 21 August in a Damascus suburb, as concluded by a United Nations investigation team, the Security Council this evening endorsed the expeditious destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons programme, with inspections to begin by 1 October, and agreed

Speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on the latest political developments, September 23, 2013.

UPDATED WITH VIDEO(press on [cc] sign on the bottom right for English subtitles) I take refuge in Allah from the stoned devil. In the Name of Allah, The Compassionate, The Most Merciful. Peace be on the Seal of prophets, our Master and Prophet, Abi Al Qassem Mohammad and on his chaste and pure Household and on his chosen companions and on all messengers and prophets. Peace be upon you and

Further signs that the insurgency is falling apart while the Syrian military is getting stronger and stronger

Great news from Syria today: eleven Islamist rebel groups in Syria have announced they do not recognise the authority of the main opposition alliance, the National Coalition, that is the formula chosen by the BBC.  The BBC does not explain why the National Coalition is the “main” opposition alliance, but it does add that the “Istanbul-based Western-backed National Coalition was formed in November 2012 and is recognised by more than

Russia is sending the large anti-submarine ship Admiral Panteleev to the Red Sea to shadow the USS Nimitz

I am continuing to track the movements of the Russian Navy ships not out of a sudden passion for naval warfare, but because I was taught many years ago already that surface fleet movements are the “body language” of big states (submarines are always covert).  In this case, looking at what the Russian navy does tells us a lot about what it thinks is, or might, be happening.  Today I

Meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club followed by Q&A session

Warning: this is a 25min long speech followed by over two hours of questions and answers. Still, I would suggest that is is well worth watching because I believe that it really shows the kind of man Putin is and what really makes him “tick”.  If you want to have a really good insight into what the “Eurasian sovereignists” stand for and the kind of international order they are trying

Lavrov: US blackmails Russia over Syria’s entry into the OPCW and demands Chapter VII Resolution at UNSC

RT reports:The US is pushing Russia into approving a UN resolution that would allow for military intervention in Syria, in exchange for American support of Syria’s accession to OPCW, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said.“Our American partners are starting to blackmail us: ‘If Russia does not support a resolution under Chapter 7, then we will withdraw our support for Syria’s entry into the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical

Russia officially confirms that the heavy missile cruiser Variag will join the Russian Navy task force in the Mediterranean

So far, this was only an unconfirmed rumor but now it has received an official confirmation:  heavy missile cruiser Variag will join the Russian Navy task force in the Mediterranean where he will replace the Moskva.  In other words, the Russians want to keep a heavy missile cruiser on station for the foreseeable future.  The rotation of heavy amphibious assault ships is continuing (see here for context).The Saker Heavy missile

Syria: Whodunit?

by Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich The long anticipated UN inspectors report confirmed the use of chemical weapons on August 21, 2013 in the Ghouta area of Damascus. The investigators report provided “clear and convincing evidence that surface-to-surface rockets containing the nerve agent Sarin were used”. Warmongers were quick to pounce on the use of rockets as evidence that the Assad government was responsible. The Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov was quick to

Russia and the Arab and Islamic world – let us set the record straight, ok? (-: Saker venting warning :-)

 For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H. L. Mencken Yesterday, Masoud posted a comment which I think deserves a separate post as an answer.  Here is the comment in full: The answer to the mystery of why the resolution seems so lopsided is simple: Russia is simply doing what it always does. I don’t believe Russia is interested in the primacy of

The recent Kerry-Lavrov agreement – discussion part III (UPDATED!)

Before I begin this third installment of our collective analysis of the Kerry-Lavrov agreement I would ask everybody who has not already done so to first visit the blog of Alexander Mercouris and check out his excellent analysis of this agreement here: http://mercouris.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/the-lavrov-kerry-agreement/.  Since Alexander’s reply to my initial analysis is the longest one I will also begin by replying to what he wrote.  I will then turn to the

The recent Kerry-Lavrov agreement – discussion part II

I want to begin this post by sincerely thanking everybody who has contributed comments to the topic of the recent Kerry-Lavrov agreement.  This is an important moment in the Syrian conflict and, I would even argue, possibly a crucial moment in US-Russian relations, and to have differences of opinion on this issue is not only normal, it is inevitable.  One way or another, this agreement will have momentous consequences because

The US-Russia agreement on Syria’s chemical weapons – deal in full

Note: having read the actual full text of this agreement (thanks Robert!!) I have to say that it is even worse than what I feared.  I simply do not have the time to lay out my arguments before tomorrow evening.  That is also when I will reply to the numerous and interesting comments disagreeing with my view.  BTW – I sincerely thank you all for your comments, it is precisely

Lavrov blunders in Geneva and accepts an ambiguous and possibly dangerous deal

So Kerry and Lavrov did end up hammering out a deal on Syria.  I won’t go into the specifics here,  but I want to focus on what is the single most important issue at stake: the risk of US aggression against Syria.  And here, the picture is murky at best.First the BBC had a headline saying “US to drop military threat“.  But then in another article posted just a few

Russia is continuing to increase the sized of its naval task force of the Syrian coast

That is interesting.  The US appears to have accepted Putin’s “Russian Gambit”, Kerry and Lavrov are reported to be immersed in complex technical discussions, the risks of war seem to be averted, and yet the Russian Navy is continuing to strengthen its task force off the Syrian coast.  According to Russian sources the following ships are being sent to reinforce the task force: Large amphibious assault ship Nikolai Filchenkov Guard

The ultimate humiliation for the Serbian nation

A week ago, one commentator – Fernando – asked me whether I considered the Serbs a defeated people to which I answered that, at least for the time being, yes, I saw them as totally defeated, though I was sure of their eventual re-emergence.  And now, I see this absolutely incredible headline from the BBC: Ex-IMF head Strauss-Kahn to advise Serbian government For a while, this left me speechless.  Yes,

Two more excellent analyses from the Asia Times Online

Two more excellent analyses from the Asia Times Online: one from Pepe Escobar about China (“China stitches up the (SCO) Silk Rd“) and one from M K Bhadrakumar about Russia (“Putin eyes Obama’s Iran file“).  Frankly this tag-team of Escobar & Bhadrakumar is so good that I recommend that everybody check out what they write on a daily basis.  They area light-years ahead of the competition.Cheers,The Saker

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