There seems to be a lot of confusion about the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and I think that this is a good time to clarify a few things about my take on them.
First, the original sanctions were a total joke. However, the latest sanctions (including the denial of credit) are definitely hurting Russia.
Second, next to the official sanctions, there are unofficial ones, such as the carefully orchestrated drop in the prices of oil which itself triggers a fall in the value of the Ruble against the Dollar and the Euro.
Third, there is also a great deal of speculation against the Ruble which itself does also contribute to the problem.
Fourth and last, but not least, the three factors above contribute to a nervousness and lack of trust into the Russian currency and economy which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
However, the thing which those who stick to a simplistic assessment of the sanctions are missing are the following:
1) Whom are these sanctions hurting more, Russia or the West?
2) What is the Russian staying power to put up with these sanctions?
3) Will time make these sanctions harder or easier for Russia to put up with?
I would argue that these sanctions are much more damaging to the the US European colonies (known as the “EU”) than for Russia. I would argue that the Russian people have a formidable resistance to hardship and that western societies are, in comparison, soft, hedonistic, lazy, spoiled and generally weak. Russians have a staying power which is simply unimaginable for a west European person (the horrible siege of Leningrad lasted 900 days!!!). Lastly, I believe that time will allow Russia to take adaptive measures to basically render these sanctions irrelevant.
Furthermore, the Russian staying power under AngloZionist sanctions needs to be compared with the staying power of the Ukrainian Nazi junta to keep control of the situation. It is one thing to put up with hardship and quite another to sit on a sinking ship.
Still, all of the above is predicated on the notion that Russia under Putin will finally address some of her most debilitating internal structural problems. Should that not happen, Russia will end up in the situation of an immune-suppressed person who is a serious risk even from a comparatively weak and normally benign virus or bacteria.
In conclusion, and just for your information, there are some interesting ideas floating around about what Russia might be doing. Check out this one for example: http://futurefastforward.com/images/stories/financial/GrandmasterPutinG%C3%87%C3%96sGoldenTrap.pdf.
I hope that this clarifies that.
Cheers,
The Saker
Saker Message:
Any comment about the interview given by Medvedev yesterday?
News from Kiev..the junta is asking 19 billions usd more from the IMF,which will give us a total of:17+19+2.5(eu)=38.5..of course this money is provided(loans in principle..)with full austerity in exchange.
Ukies will have to pay for education,health etc..the price of utilities will at least triple.
They will sell almost everything which still has any value.
Well done guys with your Maidan…you wanted ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’..you will all be ruined before the end of 2015,if there is no ‘coup’ before?
Gold coordination is only one manifestation of the relationship between Putin and Xi, Russia and China.
Trying to destroy one is the same as trying to destroy both. It is impossible for the West to shatter both nations who are working much more than gold and dollars together.
I read IMF is again ready to pay costs of the Ukrainian junta. How long can that last. Is the Russian resistance not futile, faced with such a powerful enemy?
Hi Saker, I was wondering if you would recommend that book by Starikov. Nationalization of the Ruble. I know what you think about his Stalin philosophy, because you mentioned it the other day, but what about his economics ?
“Vulnerabilities of Russia to the sanctions of the United States, the European Union and NATO military prey” by James Petras:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article185974.html
“How Vladimir Putin reversed the NATO strategy” by Thierry Meyssan:
http://www.voltairenet.org/article186154.html
Ugo Z. said…
Yes and both are buying large amounts of gold & silver with worthless dollars. The market is being control by tbtf western banks and Russia & China say thank you.
The .01% really don’t care if they destroy the Amerikan and Euro economy as long as it crashes the middle class of both.
Saker you’re right about who will do OK and who will fail as far what countries citizens.
I hope the sanctions only will spur Volodya to implement the so needed changes in the way CBR operate.
Also Saker I am not sure the Russians of 1941 are the same as the Russians of 2014. But still are Russians if you know what I mean. God speed to Russia and all good people around the world.
This is the type of women who will face:
“The role of women in the defense of Stalingrad”:
Taken from the Memoirs of Marshal Vasily Ivanovich Chuikov, commander of the 62nd Army Stalingrad
https://culturaproletaria.wordpress.com/2014/12/10/el-papel-de-las-mujeres-en-la-defensa-de-stalingrado/
The anti-Russian sanctions are not effective if the exchange rate of the rouble is the only measure.
I recall that two years ago the Iranian rial was supposedly in free fall which “proved” that the sanctions against it were working.
Where is Iran now? Certainly not a failed state. In fact the lower currency just made their exports more competitive and of course they were not allowed to import much anyway because of the sanctions so they just made it themselves.
If Western media somehow equates the USD exchange rate with the health of an economy it might as well give up on every other country but the USA because all their currencies have depreciated of late.
A country as strong and resiliant as Russia only has to wait. The house of cards which passes for an economy in the USA and the EU will collapse soon enough.
Leaked Document: Ukraine’s Government Set To Eliminate… Everything.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-10/leaked-document-ukraines-government-set-eliminate-everything
As it has been noted before, from me as well, buying physical gold is not enough, as long as:
1) gold as a commodity retains an internationally acknowledged price (which is basically determined by banksters)
2) eventual gold-backed currencies remain convertible into fiat ones – USD in first line – according to current rates.
Russia would end up trading her gold for dollars, i.e. for nothing.
To make gold politics effective, you need to refuse exchanges with anybody not giving gold or gold backed currency in payment (they are by no means the same things but to our political purpose they can be considered both opposed to fiat money).
To do this, you need have a number of partners ready tho share your stand. The world would actually be divided into two spheres, dollar/fiat and gold, and you must be able to trade energy, raw materials and manufactured goods in sufficient quantity to keep your economy going. Otherwise you will simply get gold-backed misery. It doesn’t work if you are alone.
Thence the competition for partners we have already been observing.
But the question is: is China, the selfish, over-cautious giant who owns enormous reserves in dollars, a large share of US debt, and investments all over the world (including a lot of Countries enslaved by the Empire) ready to make such a leap for the sake of multi-polarity? And what about other Brics, India, Brazil and SA, all heavily connected to the Anglo system?
Without a total commitment of these Powers, which I cannot see as forthcoming, these measures will not hurt critically the Empire.
This leaves me thinking that a more decided action from the political point of view, right here and now, would be needed to solve Russia’s predicament. This includes repudiating the self-destructive Minsk “agreements” and providing decisive support to a Novorussian offensive. Everybody is ready, sooner or later, to accept a fait accompli, but half-frozen, gangrenous conflicts always go the advantage of the stronger side, the Empire and its minions. Ask the Palestinians, Serbs a.s.o. if you doubt
“War by media and the triumph of propaganda”: By John Pilger
In Spanish:
http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=193007
In English:
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/05/war-by-media-and-the-triumph-of-propaganda/
Irony of a us site as snapshot of good info on entire russia O&G statistics: production, usage, exports, main oil companies, refineries, pipelines, etc.
most info though is a year old
http://www.eia.gov/countries/cab.cfm?fips=RS
Russians investors has Ucranian bods
these expires in the end of 2015 and if Ucrania can not to settle up, or its public depd is higer of 60%then russians can demand required the total bods and send Ucrania in the hell because must to pay to russians investors more than 16 billions $.
At a meeting of his cabinet yats whined like a prostitute for services rendered and who hasn’t been paid: “It’s hard for us to make ends meet ourselves. We are not begging for money, we are not moaning.” I expect yats the bankster to follow the other banksters who practise – once – skydiving without a parachute.
Of course, with Greece kicking off again, see how skint the EU is towards Ukraine, while our IDIOT in chief camoron STILL wants Turkey in the EU as well as Ukraine and all the way up to the Urals.
This is all about the petrodollar, everything else is an irrelevant sideshow.
America called in its chits with Saudi Arabia to drive down oil to a point where a dollar could buy it again.
What is the key word here? Patience. Low oil prices will not last forever and when they spike up, it will game set match for the New World Order, as regime after regime bails on them.
When even Kissinger is bailing on the New World Order, you know it’s in its last days.
just to be clear, that released torture report was only a heavily redacted summary!
BTW, sometimes the mundane can be telling–Barky has not been seen out golfing, let alone much at all, in about 2 weeks now!
he is in a seige mentality mode, as if resigned to some conclusion of something very big coming soon.
http://sputniknews.com/us/20141210/1015715074.html
Amnesty International called the release of the report a wake-up call for the US urging the government to release the full inquiry, the NGO said in a press release. “The declassified information contained in the summary, while limited, is a reminder to the world of the utter failure of the USA to end the impunity enjoyed by those who authorized and used torture and other ill-treatment. This is a wake-up call to the USA, they must disclose the full truth about the human rights violations, hold perpetrators
Justin Raimondo on the CIA torture report released by the US Senate:
http://original.antiwar.com/justin/2014/12/09/the-united-states-of-torture/#.VIikLWY8HMw.twitter
Russia needs to understand that these sanctions are a prelude to war and plan accordingly
Ukraine is broke as ajole
http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766305
@ Vineyard of the Saker
I am getting really curious, what’s the deal with this ‘Anglo Zionist empire’ so frequently mentioned here, in articles and in some comments?
Yes, Israel was aligned with the West (and USSR with the other side of the Arab-Israeli conflict) during the Cold War 1, which ENDED in 1991.
But there were never Zionist empires in history, as this would simply make no sense at all.
There were Empires, but they were British, Russian, Ottoman, and so on,– never a Zionist one. Those Empires did employ some foreigners.
The state of Israel played no role in recent events in Ukraine, did not support sanctions, did not sent weapons, keeps distance from Kolomoiskii and co—and still somehow they are for something to blame.
This really does not help the Russia’s cause. It just demonstrates how the British Empire is still better ( a bit ) than Russian Empire in attracting non-natives to its causes.
You see Russia- the-Third-Rome, and Romes-no-more taking on the whole world?
Well, good luck with that than, but I will be out of there (although I do support Novorossia).
With best regards,
AngloZion Imperialist .
Viva la revolucion!
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/766083
Russia produces 10,000,000 barrels of oil per day. Russia’s oil income is 6,000,000,000 (billion)USD per day with oil selling for 60USD per barrel. That is 2,184 billion USD per year or 2.184 trillion per year.
I measure everything by USD. Can you see how valuable the universal dollar is? Why has the world tolerated the chains of USD as the measure of value, the unit of transaction and ….now we see the USD is no longer the store of value for the Russian Central Bank. This is not Vladimir Putin’s doing, but he understands the end of the timeline for the USD and how much credibility will be needed to restart world trade in oil and goods. He will not kill the dollar by bidding oil for gold at these ridiculous prices, but must wait with the patience of Job for the USD to quietly die ushering in a multi-polar world where gold replaces sovereign credibility.
The Russian Central Bank ‘bought’ 50 metric tons of gold this year. Gold sells for 40,000 USD per kilogram today times 1000 kilograms per metric ton prices each ton of gold at 40,000,000 (million)USD. Fifty tons of gold times 40,000,000 USD equals 2 billion USD or about eight hours of Russian oil production.
Gold must have more leverage than a London currency speculator or more credibility than the Federal Reserve Bank! The Golden Rule is making a reappearance in the affairs of men. The Devil is up against the wall, having studied game theory at MIT too long, he thought The Golden Rule applied to lesser beings. Now….having scoffed at The Golden Rule, the Devil must pay gold for oil. Lucky for the Devil he knows the real price of gold and as long as he can deliver the oil flows one way and gold flows the other.
The Devil and those who remember The Golden Rule meet in the market place. The Russian’s gain CREDIBILITY when their rouble free floats. If gold bids for rouble, rouble has credibility with small letters, since big letter CREDIBILITY is the privilege accorded by The Golden Rule.
The world is sick of the dirty float. The Devil uses the dirty float to protect his unearned privilege. Russia is wealthy in unencumbered oil and gold protected by those worthless nuclear weapons. It does not need capital controls or a dirty float. It is not poor like Malaysia or the Devil like the Anglo-Zionist Empire. Russia is wealthy in unencumbered oil and gold, but more important someone in high places there understands CREDIBILITY and The Golden Rule.
Maybe BIS facilitate these affairs, making sure large gold gets to the right places and the right hands. It is not easy to buy large gold…..there is only 180,000 metric tons to be divided up as the worlds reserve asset insuring honest men against speculators and governments who think The Golden Rule is for children, puppets, and dreamers. The great institutions have lost credibility and soon they will pay with gold or accept charity for the things of life.
http://www.awarablogs.com/putin-midterm-interim-results/
Putin 2000 – 2014 Midterm Interim Results: Diversification, Modernization and the Role of the State in Russia’s economy
Mr. Saker wrote
the carefully orchestrated drop in the prices of oil which itself triggers a fall in the value of the Ruble against the Dollar and the Euro.
. . . . .
Fall in price of oil is not orchestrated as we are being led to believe. The so-called jobless recovery is being exposed for what it Nothing but MOPE. Recognition of the second great depression now in focus. It’s the $1.2 quadrillion Derivatives weighting on the financial infrastructure that should have been fixed in 2009 but was not.
TBTFs are in deep doo.
So, All world currencies are falling against the USD which is an anomaly. Funny the worst of the fiat is rising!
The USD is rising before it disappears or is devalued and replaced.
1. FT. com: – Bank of International Settlements sounds the alarm over the dollar
Global financial policy makers have sounded the alarm about the impact of a resurgent US dollar on emerging markets, where companies have racked up large debts denominated in the American currency.
The Bank for International Settlements, known as the central bankers’ bank, warned on Sunday in its Quarterly Review that a prolonged rally in the dollar could expose financial vulnerabilities in emerging markets by damaging some companies’ creditworthiness.[.]
~ ~ ~ ~
Third, there is also a great deal of speculation against the Ruble which itself does also contribute to the problem.
= the euro which does not help Germany, France or Italy etc
= Take a look at the Yen, Aussie and Canadian dollar in a wall of hurt-
All currencies are collapsing
Video Interview
All currencies are collapsing
The other side of the coin – Oil
Shale Oil, Oil Sands and Oil Supply Globally: Market Price Compared to Production Costs The Link
(December 1, 2013 2:53 pm updated frequently). Russia stands at No:3
by George Dorgan Swiss National Bank
Fourth and last, but not least, the three factors above contribute to a nervousness and lack of trust into the Russian currency and economy which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Unlike the USSA/EU, Russia will be just fine. No debt, with savings and a gold horde added to monthly. In effect, Russia sells its oil for gold.
it’s a clean link to
Grandmaster Putin’s Golden Trap
”Very few people understand what Putin is doing at the moment. And almost no one understands what he will do in the future.
”No matter how strange it may seem, but right now, Putin is selling Russian oil and gas only for physical gold.”
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
Oh, btw the Ukraine is where the USD and NATO went to die. All the sanctions on Russia have boomeranged. Keep in mind all is not as it appears. Cooperation continues between Russia and the AZs: Afghan routes, Mission to Space station,
Not everything died –
Russia, USA pilots to fly secret route used to send warplanes to Soviets during WWII
Credit Sanction – The Chinese filled the gap. And there is the “unannounced” but quietly keep rolling over the credit line every 30 days?
“In a democratic country like Lithuania, which is based on EU values, the SSD cannot forbid citizens to travel where they want. However, issues of national security and legality sometimes are not identical,” Makauskas said in a statement. “Military youth camps in Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States aim to nurture individuals to defend the interests of those countries. Therefore, the department advises parents to consider whether their children could become unfriendly foreign states’ pawns in our state.”
This is exactly what happens when people from Russia and Europe go to the USA
ZeroHedge quotes http://sharij.net/7367 :
Ukraine gov’t to drop paying for elementary-school education, school lunches, hospital meals; existing pensions frozen at pre-inflation levels, new pensions bar raised substantially; slashing counts of judges / prosecutors / police, ’cause you don’t need them in a lynching state anyway; dropping number of Members of Parliament from 450 to 150, ’cause you don’t need no steenking representative voters for democracy anyway. When a country is cursed by too much oil, there is no need to keep inconvenient peasants alive and happy–they don’t have anything to pay their taxes with, anyway.
Although this was predicted, someone should check to see whether this particular set of documents is a hoax or not.
Pitchforks and torches in Ukraine again by April, wait and see.
55 tonnes of gold will allow Russia to gold plate electronic contacts for 550 years at least.
That’s a long range strategic move in current day electronics technology.
But completely useless otherwise as gold has no other practical use.
Read a bit of Modern Monetary Theory for God’s sake and for our children’s future on this Earth!
Dear The Saker,
I was just thinking how the West has been checkmated and then read your article on oil/gold/FRN dollars etc. and saw at the end the author said the same thing :).
As stated after Putin’s end of year address – this amnesty I feel is like a final – bring the money back now and show your support for your country or you will suffer the consequences….because the western banking system is all going to collapse…..if they take the deposits those with lots of money are going to be hit badly…….
This also ties up with all these EU countries wanting their gold back.
Banderastan sure backed the wrong horse…..
Rgds,
Veritas
Rose Gottemoeller, Under Secretary for Arms Control and International Security for the US Department of State, said Ukraine could find itself among other rogue countries if its nuclear arsenal is reinstated
http://en.ukraina.ru/news/20141210/1011455951.html
Unfortunately most Western people are very apathetic and support their authorities blindly. The Western MSM will tell them that the hardships they suffer are Russia’s fault so blame is deflected from the Western elites onto Putin. The yellow press will stir up enough hatred and once more crowds will chant “We want war!” like they did in England in 1914.
You are absolutely correct in stressing the need for Russia to take its economic destiny in its own hands. With vast resources in terms of agricultural land and skilled labour, with a massive scientific and industrial infrastructure inherited from the past, to allow itself to become a northern oil state is ludicrous.
Russia needs to shake itself free from the ideological debility of neo-liberalism. It must be apparent to all that no good- and much suffering- has come from stickinbg with the economic shock therapy prescribed to it, by its enemies, in the Yeltsin years.
And nobody should delude himself as to the Russian capacity for suffering, it is a capacity intrinsically linked to the trust that people have in the regime. To ask Russians to continue to support the thieving oligarchs while resisting western imperialism is likely to produce nothing more than a cynical rejection. If Russia wants to rally the people it must be ready to rally to the people: to guarantee minimum living standards, `squeeze the ill gotten gains of the oligarchs ùntil the pips squeak, restore educational, health and other social services and give practical form to calls for national solidarity.
To understand the situation in Russia it is necessary to understand that the long series of campaigns against the USSR, beginning in 1918 and lasting, in various forms, through the fascist invasion and the Cold War, were only superficially anti-communist. The rivalry between western imperialism and Russia long pre-dated 1917 and it surprises only idiots that it has not diminished a bit since the Kremlin fell into the hands of neo-liberals with a taste for western culture and a disdain of their own brothers and sisters.
The USSR had many faults, so many that it not only collapsed of them but collapsed into a craven, greedy kleptocracy with no more self respect than the English and a contemptible appetite for American boot leather. But the history of the USSR and the determination of its people to maintain their sovereignty as a nation has many heroic and exemplary passages. To deny Leningrad (even to the extent of renaming the martyred city to comply with western tastes) is to obscure a world historical lesson in resistance, just as more resistance, more shared struggle is required.
By the same token to torpedo the traditions of charity and solidarity, which emanate from the depths of the people, from the soul of the nation is suicidal. Left to the rich, (who have become rich by devouring the people`s wealth and work, accumulated over generations) Russia is doomed, but if those governing Russia will put the interests of the most vulnerable first and call upon the nation to put its energies, mental and mortal together, it can not only preserve itself but transform the future of humanity.
Moscow, it used to be said, is the Third Rome, there will not be a Fourth.
Tony “Shirtfront” Abbott welcomes Poroshenko with a sickly manhug to OZ to beg for coal and uranium…
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/australia-could-supply-uranium-coal-to-ukraine-20141211-124ul5.html
‘Shirtfront’ has been nominated word of the Year down here.
and the article on the link is just amazing… make sense and I hope it works properly
thank you for the article!
[from Blue]
anon 10 December, 2014 22:10 …
The zero hedge article on eliminating everything said:
“The public sector has no ability to support itself. In theory, they’re supposed to survive by taking a modest portion of people’s earnings through taxation, and then providing valuable services in exchange.”
This is bad theory. The people can certainly ‘chip in’ and, acting through government, build a highway, but no need. The government can simply create money and pay people for labor and materials to build the highway. Value is created and efficiency increased through use of the highway, and the materials and labor companies spend their earning in other sectors, which stimulates and increases production and the economy, and it all puts people to work. This offsets the creation of the money, which is a form of investment, with increase in tangible wealth. The country’s government spends money into existence, and the country gets greater real wealth in return.
Properly balanced with production and tangible returns there is no inflation: the increased money supply matches the increased real economy.
Taxing eople cools the economy by making people pay taxes instead of buying stuff, dampening economic activity, investment in production, and employment.
It’s past due people got the theory correct.
__Blue
I don’t think this has been posted yet, but our friends at Russia Insider have published an excellent article on this same subject, providing actual data on the true state of Russia’s economy.
Study: Russia’s Economy Resilient in Face of Sanctions
No surprise that the statements from western governments and media are based on LIES, not to be believed.
The article is by Jon Hellevig, head of Awara Group, the consultancy that conducted the analysis. To me these are trustworthy sources, but judge for yourself.
“…Russia’s economy is not as dependent on oil and gas as is commonly claimed.
“Having researched the development of key indicators of the economy from 2000 to 2013, the authors of the study want to debunk the media story that Russia’s governments under Putin have been supposedly exclusively relying on an economic model based on oil and gas rents while neglecting the need to modernize and diversify the economy.
“It turns out that quite the opposite is true. The crisis-torn economy battered by years of robber capitalism and anarchy of the 1990’s, which Putin inherited in 2000, has now reached sufficient maturity to justify a belief that Russia can make the industrial breakthrough that the President has announced.”
Perfect timing, President Putin…
“I would argue that the Russian people have a formidable resistance to hardship and that western societies are, in comparison, soft, hedonistic, lazy, spoiled and generally weak. Russians have a staying power which is simply unimaginable for a west European person (the horrible siege of Leningrad lasted 900 days!!!). Lastly, I believe that time will allow Russia to take adaptive measures to basically render these sanctions irrelevant.”
Spot on. Russia may do some things terribly (media and image projection), but it’s people are the salt of the earth and capable of great accomplishments.
Well, the generations that lived in WW2 are now old and many have already died. Younger Russian generations are not used to such hardships. Of course, the Russian people suffered greatly in the 1990s and generally had lower consumer products than their western counterparts but in general during the last decade their standard of living became a lot higher. So, younger Russians are not like the Russians of the 1940s and the 1940s Russians are not the Russians of the 1800s. Different generations , different technology and different standards of living ….
The same applies to other people and countries like my homeland Greece.
Greek people suffered greatly under German occupation in the 1940s when many Greeks started a guerrilla war against the occupiers. But their grandchildren are totally different because they grew up in a a lot more consumerist society and there was no war.
Many Greek villages didn’t even have electrucity in the 1960s. Now in the same villages almost all young people use internet and have access to many amenities and consumer products.
Of course modern life (in Greece and elsewhere) has also many challenges and new problems (high unemployment, high cost of living, low wages, social problems, drug addiction etc )
but I don’t think modern people could adapt again to live like their ancestors did during 1940s or 1900s.
That’s why we dont see any revolution coming in Greece or other European countries despite the fact that Greece is under occupation and economically destroyed. People are spending their time drinking coffee or staying at home even though there is growing dissatisfaction with the economic, political and social situation
The Russian people need to realize that the West wants to come back and loot Russia just like the oligarchs did. This is why they are attacking Putin and Russia. They want to steal Russia’s untold riches and make the Russian people serfs. Just like the Bolsheviks and oligrachs did.
The Russian people only need to look at what is happening in the Ukraine. When will the Ukrainain people finally wake up and go to Kiev to get the vermin?
All the while our eyes are focused on Russia to battle the Dollar hegemony, it dawns on me that in fact China is the only nation whose actions actually affect the Dollar’s standing. Russia’s not going to bring the Dollar down at all, it doesn’t have the necessary scale of impact. It will be China, and this is where we should be looking.
Alexander Mercouris has posted the entirety of a Financial Times article on his Facebook page, which is handy because the article is behind a paywall and he’s the only person left in his circle who still has a subscription ;)
CHINA SHIFTING OUT OF THE DOLLAR
– The tectonic plates shift.
The article is useful to show western analysis regarding the rise of the Renminbi and the diminishing of the Dollar. Analysts see this as inevitable, the only real questions being timetable – and to some extent, fallout.
One commentator recently – I can’t find it now – was talking about the next bubble collapse being not the stock market but rather the bond market. This whole area is a bit beyond me, but I struggle to keep up. The FT article tells a useful story about China’s withdrawal over the years from buying US Treasuries (bonds), and its shift towards more useful reinvestment of its revenues (into Silk Roads and such).
Anyway, I found it good reading, and I wanted to share it with the group. Those who have the capacity for the subject matter may enjoy it too.
For those who have not noticed, some censorship of the internet is already quitely underway. Take for instance, news/blog aggregator, http://www.iraqwar.mirror-world.ru/, it has been taken down for the last ten days. Instead what comes up drivel from US and UK based channels/newspapers. Dissent is slowly being suppressed by Uncle Sam’s minions in Europe and Asia. Disinformation has substituted information.
When the dollar collapses, the countries of the world, in order to avoid chaos, will go to whatever replacement system is up and running. That will be the sdr system (special drawing rights)– just as bad as the curent one as it leaves the same international banking cabal in position.
Why in the world would most countries agree to go to a gold-system knowing that only a few countries have most of it?
Getting rid of the dollar, or even fiat currency generally, is not the essential problem.
Saker, I don’t know if you want to, but if you do, would you post that alternative site you have for us to go to, if this site goes down ?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-10/leaked-document-ukraines-government-set-eliminate-everything
I love it; this will guarantee a contercoup in Ukraine– IF it’s true.
Gold is a part of the answer only if Russia is willing to issue roubles against the gold and use them internally as investment/loans for entrepreneurship, industrialization, infrastructure.
Russia cannot progress much economically at present because she has insufficient investment capital, but the IMF monetary system says that only the RCB can issue roubles– and only in exchange for dollars.
Gold will not help unless Russia nationalizes the rouble & central bank & withdraws from IMF, says Starikov.
GREEK: Russia has already volunteered to defer repayment of the Ukrainian bonds. I don’t know for how long.
@Anonymous 23：58
(to The one who asked about AngloZionist Empire.)
It is not exactly a visible empire, an empire in this day will be automatically condemned and no amount of propaganda can reverse that. However, if you look at who call the shots, control the money, US federal reserve, US’s unending support for Israel when it is committing crazy atrocities, even in Ukraine there is Kolomoisky, all evidence points to a presence of an empire…
Israel Shamir has cheerful words for Muscovites with the winter blues, in an article at Pravda that Kristina Rus has translated and posted at her place.
Shamir talks about the sanctions and how much better life in the stores is already – and will become more so – because of import substitution.
He also says the Ruble hasn’t depreciated enough yet, and Christmas trees prove it:
“And so the ruble is too high. The problem of currency misalignment is that anything can be imported cheaper than produced at home. The New Year is coming, but this great North country is importing Christmas trees from Denmark and Holland. This means that the ruble is overvalued even after its fall. Until I see the Russian Christmas trees on sale at an affordable price – I will not believe that the ruble has collapsed.”
Israel Shamir: What Can Christmas Trees Tell You About The Russian Economy
It’s a nice piece. Shamir restates the current economic situation with clear and positive realities, and a good grasp of the elements in play.
Ending the Petro Dollar is critical to defeating the American Menace.
America’s Dollar is the world’s only reserve currency because in large part transactions of oil, which is the lifeblood of the global economy, are denominated in US dollars, which compels other nations to hold US Dollars.
If other countries start using other currencies to conduct oil transactions, that is a mortal threat to America’s Dollar Dictatorship.
That’s what Saddam Hussein’s Iraq was doing, and he was destroyed by America.
That’s what Muammar Ghadaffi’s Libya was doing, and he was destroyed by America.
That’s what Iran, Russia, and China are starting to do in significant ways, and they are all being targetted by America covertly and overtly.
Did you guys SEE this?
http://www.awarablogs.com/putin-midterm-interim-results/
Anonymous posted this & it shows Russian economy as wildly different than we’ve been told.
EG: GDP increased 10 fold 1999-2012!
The economic lynchpin of the American Evil Empire is the Petro Dollar (or Super Imperialism), which has, to be blunt, enabled the United States to obtain the greatest economic free lunch in history.
Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire
http://michael-hudson.com/2003/03/press-release-super-imperialism/
The so-called American “debt” that other countries hold in the form of US Treasury Bills is an Orwellian euphemism that disinformationalists (including by so-called critics or alternative media) use to obscure its true nature: Imperial Tribute Paid to America.
Why?
Because the Americans have NO intention of ever repaying the money that they have “borrowed” from other nations.
In fact, calling this money a form of “debt” is like calling American torture merely a type of “enhanced interrogation.”
Describing it as such is pure unadulterated deception and NewSpeak–and often a sign of a Controlled Opposition shill, in my view.
America gobbles up enormous amounts of goods and services from the rest of the world that it “pays” for with worthless paper in the form of the Dollar.
As Mike Whitney puts it:
“As long as Washington can control the world’s energy supplies and force the world to trade in dollars, it can spend well in excess of what it produces and not be held to account. It’s like having a credit card you never have to pay off.
That’s a racket Uncle Sam is prepared to defend with everything he’s got, even nukes.”
Defending Dollar Imperialism
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/01/defending-dollar-imperialism/
Indeed, America’s way of life and economy are a system of parasitism or, better yet, economic vampirism.
Very few people have the honesty to admit this, even supposed critics like people here, because they defend America’s morally illegitimate standard of living and economy.
Here are two gentlemen who do have the balls to call a spade a spade and to call an American parasite … an American parasite.
America: Host or Parasite?
http://michael-hudson.com/2007/03/america-host-or-parasite/
Putin says U.S. is “parasite” on global economy
http://www.reuters.com/assets/print?aid=USTRE77052R20110801
Anonymous Poovizhi Arasan said
Iraq-war.ru has the tecnicals problems, it will on line in the firts days of 2015!!
Oh, how true this article is!
Thank you Saker!!!!!
I went to listen to the presentation from one of the scientist from Canada / he went to collect the seeds from native flora of Russia for the Utah research program / he went with two Russian biology reaserchers / two ladies / accross all Russia including Siberia. He spent there three months and his conclusion was:
If something happen with this world nobody will survive from West, but for sure Russians will,because we are so spoiled and week!
These two ladies were able to cook on the tiny small portable stove such a tasty food prepared from the native plants, fish, mushrooms and so on that small stove that he was just amazed how come in this far away wilderness / no shopping mallsgrocery stores for a very, very long distances / They were able to sleep under the moon and they were prepared even for the animal attack.
Harsh conditions, humility and compassion were the signs to hold the strenght and deal with any unexpected situation,
Soldiers from the Leningrad fight have survived in minus 40C eating just a PINE SEEDS and it is same till today.
Ukraine’s new minister of economic development says Ukraine is bankrupt
http://itar-tass.com/en/economy/766305
I say it from day ONE. Ukraine is totaly bancrupt due oligarchal structure is not dedicated to country-society but self interest only. Oligarchs finaly find “solution”: Hook up to the West as arch enemy of Russia, declared again after Khodorovskiy/ Rothschild case. Ukrainian oligarchs mistakanly expected huge
flow of money from west-at least it was promised. But. Things are turning wrong direction.
1, Bancrupt west expected Russia doing nothing. Crimea was monster blow
2, West expected Russian support- actualy Russia stopped gas deliveries and hold jack pot to declare Ukraine banckrupt
3, Ukrainian energy infrastructure is outdated due missing founds in the last 22 years. From pipelines to nuclear power plants
4, Ukraine is turning into 40 milion’s Somalia at doorstep of EU-Russia
It is game of time, patience and psyche. But Putin will get it after Ukrainians will flood EU
===================
BrasscheckTV Report
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Is China buying Detroit?
Is sure looks that way.
Video:
http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/27519.html
– Brasscheck TV
The US report to Congress also said assessments of the numbers of Chinese nuclear capable ballistic missiles and nuclear warheads were not possible due to the country’s lack of transparency.
The commission’s report clarified that China has three of those JIN class submarines now and it will add two more by 2020.
It said each submarine could carry 12 JL-2 missiles that “appear to have reached initial operational capability.”
The Chinese missiles with a range of about 4,598 miles could reach Alaska from waters near China and they could reach Alaska and Hawaii from waters south of Japan.
http://www.presstv.com/detail/2014/12/10/389595/china-arming-subs-capable-of-hitting-us/
Busted
http://www.forbiddenknowledgetv.com/videos/corruptionmonopolies/busted-governments-hire-web-trolls-to-sway-public-opinion.html
jo6pac said…10 December, 2014 21:42
“The .01% really don’t care if they destroy the Amerikan and Euro economy as long as it crashes the middle class of both.”
The western middle class isn’t the target – they are already totally owned by the people who sell low quality 6 packs and “chardonay”. You are defending a lost cause, an already deceased class of parasites. Undead. The capitalist “middle class” thought they could achieve success on the backs of “lessers” as a bargain basement form of exploitative capitalism one upmanship.
The middle class is the problem in the ziofascist west. They suck the willies of their perceived betters in the capitalist hierarchy, and uniformly denounce those who seek decent changes. The middle class is the willing cannon fodder of the parasites. They are literally a genetic lost cause in most capitalist western countries now – especially in the USA, a dumping ground where all their extreme lowest common denominator conformist, short sighted, greed oriented faults are literally specifically bred for…
вот так
Russi is facing traditional enemy since Byzantine= Roman holy empire of German/Teutonic tribes. Who they are? Saxe-Coburg-Gotha-Windsor/ Orange-Nassau/Hanover/Hohenzolern.
http://asis.com/users/stag/uspres.html
Even in WW1 british ruler, american president, Otto von Bismarck and kaiser, also tsar’s wife were descendands of Charlemagne, heirs of Roman empire and Vatican. I think this was main point behind murder of Merovingian dynasty-french revolution and murder of tsar by Bella Kuhn’s unit. As Hohenzolerns splits from dynasty changing to reformation, dynasty answered with WW1.
In 1915 Alexander Parvus (original name Helphand Israel) has developed a plan to take over power in Russia by the Bolsheviks with the help of the German secret service. He received from German finance ministry 7 million DM to develop communist propaganda in Russia. It was Parvus who “created” Lenin like we know. He met The future leader of the revolution in Zurich in May 1915. The German government funded Parvus and hence the Bolsheviks because he got a promise to end hostilities when Lenin et al. dominate the eastern empire.
The Emperor’s advisor Walter Rathenau directly advocated support of Bolshevism. At his side stood the German ambassador in Denmark Ulrich von Brockdorff-Rantzau. First tranfer money from the German Foreign Ministry in the amount of 5 mil. DM took place June 7, 1915.
Anonymous Grieved said…
All the while our eyes are focused on Russia to battle the Dollar hegemony, it dawns on me that in fact China is the only nation whose actions actually affect the Dollar’s standing. Russia’s not going to bring the Dollar down at all, it doesn’t have the necessary scale of impact. It will be China, and this is where we should be looking.
Alexander Mercouris has posted the entirety of a Financial Times article on his Facebook page, which is handy because the article is behind a paywall and he’s the only person left in his circle who still has a subscription ;)
Grieved – that’s not true. You can read certain of FT articles via a Search Engine Link, or even cached.
Well the Oz MSM has done a ‘great’ job of anti-Russian bashing… coinciding with Poroshenko’s ‘brother in arms’ (Abbott’s words) visit, the Rookwood cemetery in Sydney was vandalised… over 70 Serbian and Russian Orthodox graves were desecrated.
Shame shame shame…
Forgot the link…
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/rookwood-cemetery-vandalism-more-than-70-gravestones-destroyed-20141211-124ovx.html
Hmm, the situation sure seems very bad to me; simultaneous increase in expenses (interest on debt denominated in usd, rising prices on foreign goods) and decrease in income (lower oil & gas prices, sanctions). The russian economy must be under terrible stress.
well I have one question regarding Russia:
allegedly, Stalin forced people into dacha movement to get them to feed themselves. which come in handy during ww2 and economic collapse in the 90’s.
“…throughout the Soviet period and to the present day. Even during the period of Stalin’s collectivization of agriculture in the 1930s and on, peasants maintained their private gardens (Fitzpatrick 1994). At the same time, millions of urban families have maintained the same link through their dacha garden-plots, which are similar in many respects to the peasant households of a century earlier (Sharashkin and Barham 2005b). According to official statistics, over 50% of all urban households continue to grow part of their food supply. “
http://www.soilandhealth.org/01aglibrary/010177.sharashkin.pdf
Is something similar happening now? I saw some youtube videos where women are building dachas for themselves and also there are tons of videos describing DIY house building(ex. ForumHouseTV channel on youtube.)
did Putin predicted WW3 and offered benefits (maybe free land) for people building their own dachas? any thoughts on that?
Yeah, russian people are probably very much harder than people in West. But it’s question if they want go this path of confrontation with West. And one dimension of ukraine’s crisis is, that many people even russian speaking or Russins in UA see this like final by-by to what is here called “russian civilization”, witch is related with coruption and decay. I know, that many people don’t want go from their own culture, but many yes and this is the core of this civil war – to cut influence of Russin federation over Ukraine and we see, that many people are very much motivated on this issue… And we also see, the whole Donbass have 6 mil population, and if people there were united, they would have really big army and the whole war was over, but people which are prepared for fight are less. And why? Maybe because they don’t belive to nobody. And Strelkov was suprised with this too. So maybe this belief in russian civilization isn’t there and in Russia itself too strong, like describe autor of this blog. Generaly the slavic word, which were united on totalitarian base under soviet union, looks very weak – and sympthoms of this weakness are wars in Jugoslavia, now in Ukraine and total hostility of Poles and now half of Ukrainians populations againts Russia. And this I’m saying like Czech who is interested in idea of deeper cooperation between slavic nations, which inhabited half of globe…
” …the US European colonies (known as the “EU”) …”
Brilliant, you said everything. !
Der Speigel had an article today – an interview by a 5th columnist in Russia. According to him, Putin knows nothing and is becoming more primitive, the ministry of Economics and central Bank are the saviors. What I see is the fear of losing their power and influence by the 5th column. Link below. Google translation works well.
http://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/soziales/russland-krise-star-oekonom-prophezeit-revolution-a-1007297.html
This is an interesting read. It basically says that for a host of political and economic reasons Ukraine should rid itself of the Donbas. As ludicrous it is in its fantasies about Ukraine adopting European values and accomplishing European integration, it is interesting for being a sign of showing the idea that Ukraine should abandon the East and stick to Banderastan proper is gaining ground:
http://www.aspeninstitute.cz/en/article/3-2014-ukraine-s-fateful-choice/
/Hagen
Excellent, I was just about to send you the same: http://themillenniumreport.com/2014/12/the-golden-trap-of-chess-master-vladimir-putin/
Keep up the good work!
Abel
S.Africa
Saker (the horrible siege of Leningrad lasted 900 days!!!)
Bad example, you can find something better to make your point.
It was rather remarkable that the Germans resisted for 900 days. Far away from its sources and support, encircled by an overwhelming majority of soldiers and deprived from ammunition and food.
What the Germans did there was superhuman.
Russia will suffer more because of sanctions compared to the “West” (USA, EU and vassal states).
There are various reasons for this:
One reason is that the”western” transnational elites are controlling the globalisation process and all its institutions (IMF, World Bank, WTO, Eurozone, EU etc) and “western” multinationals are responsible for most of world trade and production and they have outsource the majority of production into third world asian and african countries so as to maximize profits by taking advantage of the very low wages. Russia doesn’t have any multinational corporations and its role in the globalization process is minimal and unimportant. More russian integration with the globalized economy will surely lead to a vassal state for Russia and to the loss of the Russian sovereignty.
Also, “western” elites don’t care about the citizens of their respective countries. EU (in cooperation with IMF) is destroying a handful of nations (Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, eastern europe etc) by enforcing austerity and implementing legislation that leads to a disintegration of the local production of these states by opening their economy to free trade and multinational corporations (there are also plans and secret negotiations being made for a Transatlantic free trade area which if enforced will have a huge negative effect to the economies of smaller member states of EU)
Even if citizens of EU member states are suffering, “western” elites will continue to do their dirty job ….
Russia cannot afford to do the same. USA will try to take advantage of a growing disatisfaction of the russian populace by engineering a “orange revolution” or a coup d’etat against Putin….
Russia is in a very difficult situation.
If Russia does not disconnect with the western globalized capitalistic system, then sooner or later will have to subjugate to the “West”
So, the Russian answer will have to be in the following way:
(1) Creation of a sovereign Economic-Poilitical Union with all former soviet republics and all countries that oppose globalization. Each country will maintain its sovereignty and local traditions but there will be intense cooperation and partnerships in economic,scientific and military terms in order for the Union member states to collectively achieve self-sufficiency
(2) Russia should not only try to divide and dissolve EU but also to actively try to include european member states of EU that are currently in economic disarray (Greece, Hungary, Bulgaria, Cyprus etc)
(2) Reject the western economic system of globalisation and implement together with other members of Eurasian union a more left-wing and nationally oriented economic policy that will promote full employment and self-sufficiency that will lead to the nationalisation of natural monopolies and important industries and to the protection of local industry.
Russia must also reform, nationalize and sovereignize its central banking system and will have to withdraw from IMF-World Bank and globalisation institutions, reject the free trade agreements, increase the crackdown on oligarchs, and create again a welfare system that will be based on some positive aspects of the soviet system….
Russia must disconnect from the globalization process. While small and medium sized private businesses should be encouraged, the Russian state should take active control of the commanding heights of the economy and the western globalised economic system should be totally rejected.
Russia together with all the countries that reject globalization must create a Eurasian union that will promote self sufficiency and sovereignty.
And a very important issue is the control of the currency and of the central banking system. All efforts should be in a way to reform it and nationalize- sovereignize it so as to print money in a way that will promote the national economic interests of Russia and not the interests of private multinational mega-banks
“The state of Israel played no role in recent events in Ukraine, did not support sanctions, did not sent weapons, keeps distance from Kolomoiskii and co—and still somehow they are for something to blame.”
Right…
Wounded Ukrainian Protesters Airlifted to Israel for Medical Treatment
http://www.jta.org/2014/03/07/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/wounded-ukrainian-protesters-airlifted-to-israel-for-medical-treatment
Young Jews take Part in Ukrainian Protests along with Ultranationalists
http://www.jta.org/2013/12/08/news-opinion/world/young-jews-take-part-in-ukrainian-protests-along-with-ultranationalists
Young Jew Carries Captured Flagstaff of the Ukrainian President to Protesters on Maidan
http://ajewishisrael.com/jew-carries-captured-flagpole-ukrainian-president/
Israeli Ambassador Meets with Ukrainian Ultranationalist
http://www.jta.org/2014/03/07/news-opinion/world/israeli-ambassador-meets-with-ukrainian-ultra-nationalist
“I don’t belong [to Svoboda], but I take orders from their team. They know I’m Israeli, Jewish and an ex-IDF soldier. They call me ‘brother,'” he said. “What they’re saying about Svoboda is exaggerated, I know this for a fact. I don’t like them because they’re inconsistent, not because of [any] anti-Semitism issue.”
Angelo said…@ 11 December, 2014 03:32
“Russia may do some things terribly (media and image projection)”
Perhaps this can finally be put to rest.
Typically Russia does not engage in public relations as defined/practiced by the opponents, i.e. a policy of “managing/moulding/manipulating” public perceptions through various techniques beloved of the opponents.
They typically follow a lateral strategy of communication, which encompasses a multitude of activities not restricted to “media”, a particular misnomer positing the notion of between for a largely one-way process – a linear process re-inforcing the techniques of the opponents.
Communication is between i.e. a lateral interactive inclusive process of multi-dimension and multi-participation.
They typically do not use image projection techniques since they understand that doing so gives reign to re-inforcing pre-judgements/prejudices thereby strengthening the opposition.
If you wish to test these hypotheses and their validity then in the first instance refer to various world-wide opinion polls.
As to comparisons with the opponents, the opponents communication techniques include torture, handing dry bread to supplicants, proferring/imposing “advice” on others deemed to be of lesser breed or experience, delivering their messages via smirking ignoramuses from their Presidents/Prime Ministers downwards, and various other manipulative tactics.
Some in this blog also reflect practices of proferring/imposing “advice” on others deemed to be of lesser breed or experience.
This happened in Russia in the 1990’s and some of the advisors left Sheremetovo 2 in wooden boxes on the Delta flight.
You may also note that the hypotheses of Messrs. Bernays and Milgram have been seriously undermined, if not transcended.
Practically the opponents’ communication techniques, their growing intensity and their consequences are an unconcious contribution to the “Russian” communication strategy and success.
You may be of the view that you are following the advice of Sun Tsu in your representation – ergo appear weak when you are strong, but there comes a moment when Sun Tsu would change his advice.
This is just such a moment.
“But completely useless otherwise as gold has no other practical use.” — bullshit,… I’m paying $2k to have a gold crown on a back tooth after everything else has failed. If I get stuck in Asia I’ll sell the tooth for a ticket home!