The western media is writing with a uniformity and discipline which goosestepping SS on a parade could envy them: Joe Biden delivered a “stern warning” to Putin: don’t invade the Ukraine, or else… (see here, here or here).

Since Russia has no intention, need, or even capability (as currently poised) to “invade” the Ukraine we can be certain that Biden will make his best impersonation “sheriff squinting eyes at OK Corral” (US Presidents like to do that to look “tough” and, therefore, “presidential”) and declare that he single-handedly stopped a Russian invasion on the Ukraine!  He is SO MUCH “tougher” than Trump, right?

Fine.  Whatever.

That is a small price to pay to avoid a full-scale (or even limited) war.

This will be an obvious PR stunt, which won’t even help Biden very much, but in his tough (disastrous, really) situation, anything he can present as even a semi-success is worth saying and doing.  “So – I stopped Putin!” was the best Biden could hope for.

This, however, still solves nothing on substance (yet?).

However, there are clear signs that substantive talks did take place (length of the conversation, experts present, tone following the meeting, etc.)

First, both sides agreed to “further consultations” on the “expert level”.

Furthermore, the US side has declared “we still do not believe that President Putin has made a decision” to “further invade” the Ukraine.  So in spite of all the (hilariously ridiculous) “secret maps” posted by the western media (see here or here), the folks in charge in the Biden White House seem to be singing to a different tune (so far?).

Good!

Then there is this: considering that Putin has officially drawn “red lines” and that Biden has officially declared that he will recognize no red lines – what is it exactly which the mentioned “experts” agreed to “further consult” each other about?

The answer is quite obvious, I submit: precisely these red lines!

CNN’s version of a macho “if” :-)

It is now clear that the Biden Administration’s official position about hellfire, brimstone, sanctions from hell, and all the rest of the threats and insults which the US has made will actually be acted upon only IF Russia invades the Ukraine.

IF!

In other words, what if Russia does not invade (which she won’t), then no more sanctions???

We can be sure that the War Party (which I define as follows: the entire US media, the Neocons, the MAGA-GOP gang in Congress, the “non-Biden gang” inside the Democratic Party, the US energy sector, the US MIC, the entire US “deep state”, the Israel lobby, the Ukie lobby, the UK lobby, the Polish lobby, etc.) will present that as a huge, galactic, “concession” and even “betrayal” by Biden who “caved” to Putin The Evil Communist KGB Thug.

[Sidebar: the hysterics of the War Party about Gen Milley or Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan have proven beyond reasonable doubt that the these folks have now fully adopted the line which the Dems held during the 4 years of the Trump Administration and that they will now at least try to fabricate some “Russia-gate v2” to win the next elections.  There is no honor among thieves and they *all* sure are thieves!]

Here is what the War Party will focus on: what exactly could US and Russia experts even be negotiating about?

Until today, the US officially treated Russia was a “regional power” with her “economy in tatters“, “a gas station masquerading as a country“, a non-entity to whom the Empire had absolutely no need whatsoever to pay attention to, nevermind negotiate with!

And now, negotiations???

Negotiations, by definition, imply first, that both parties approach the negotiations as equals and, second, that both parties are willing to engage in a mutually beneficial give and take.

If not, they are not called negotiations, they are called ultimatums.

And by all signs, Biden presented Putin with no ultimatums whatsoever.

“Worse” (at least from the War Party’s point of view), is the fact that Biden has so far called Putin 3 times, met him once, and requested today’s video conference.  That is for at least five times that the sole hyperpower and world hegemon and leader of all democracies have reached out to “killers” in the Kremlin and asked for talks.  Five times.

Asked (nicely and politely)

For talks (as equals)

Five times (and promised more)

That is huge and absolutely unprecedented since at least twenty years, if not since the fall of the USSR!

Obama, assuming he is currently sober, must be in tears :-)

It gets even more amazing next.

According to the British, Biden has promised to call the following western leaders to brief them about his negotiations with Putin:

  • The UK
  • France
  • Germany
  • Italy

Did you notice who was not even mentioned?

Well, Poland and the Ukraine for starters!

This goes to show that whatever the official propaganda line is, at least *somebody* in the White House understands that there is a “real Europe”, the Europe that matters, and then there is the “European kindergarten” which matters nothing (I won’t even mention the 3B+PU clowns).

Later, Sullivan tried to do some damage control and declared that Biden would speak with “Ze” on Thursday.  But what could Biden tell “Ze” other than give him tons of verbal reassurances and zero guarantees?

Finally, it is noteworthy that the US side did not promise to accept the Ukraine in NATO (they made the usual oblique statements about “open doors” instead) and the US has even reaffirmed the Minsk Agreements (which, de facto, and possibly even de jure, might create the basis for a disavowal of any Ukie attack on the LDNR).

Again, this is good.  The less power the EU Kindergarten has, the less they are likely to force the agenda and draw the adults in the room into a (possibly nuclear) war.

Good!

There is also bad news, of course: the 3B+PU clowns all understand that perfectly.  For them the choice is stark and, indeed, possibly even existential (via self-destruction only, of course): either war or we become irrelevant in the eyes of the collective West.

So the next two questions are:

  1. What will the 3B+PU do about this next?
  2. What will the US do when the 3B+PU does something about it (with the full support of the War Party in the USA!)?

Frankly, I cannot call this one, there are way too many unknowns to make any predictions.

The fact that substantive negotiations have finally replaced the USA’s “unilateralism” (I am being polite here) is a major development and a good one.  But that, at best, is just a first step.  US politicians are notorious for saying A when negotiating with the Russians and non-A as soon as their media excoriates them for being “weak”.

Alas, what needs undoing or, at least, transforming, is three decades of self-defeating western stupidity!

Will that happen? I don’t know.

Over the next couple of days, we will hear a lot of statements, from all sides, many of them categorical.  I suggest that we wait for a little and then revisit the issue again later in the week.

Andrei

PS: big, very big stuff happening between Russia and India and Russia and China; this is crucial to get the full picture of what is going on right now.  I propose to also revisit that later in the week.