I have been watching the circus on the Korean peninsula with some dismay for a while already. I am dismayed not only by the fact that both sides are acting rather irresponsibly, but also by what I consider a potentially dangerous dismissal of the North Korean threats.
First, and here I am going to alienate some folks with whom I otherwise sympathize, I do not lay the blame for the current crisis on the USA. Yes, the USA did act in an arrogant and obnoxious way with the DPRK recently and, I would add, even not so recently. Heck, the USA acts with condescending arrogance towards pretty much every country out there except Israel. And, of course, the USA policies towards the DPRK have been a mess since the Republicans torpedoed the “Agreed Framework” and accused Clinton of “appeasement”. So what?!
The USA’s policies towards Iran ever since the Islamic Revolution have been no less arrogant, threatening and treacherous. But unlike the “Great Leader” (Kim Il-sung) and the “Dear Leader” (Kim Jong-il) the Iranians went out of their way to avoid responding to these provocations and always took the necessary steps to de-escalate the situation.
There can be no excuse for the absolutely irresponsible stream of threats coming out of the DPRK recently. Even worse, the North Koreans are actually *doing* things. And yet, most people dismiss all this because they correctly believe that there is no way that the DPRK can prevail in a conflict against the USA, Taiwan, Japan and, of course, South Korea. They also correctly believe that neither China nor Russia are going to help the DPRK in any way. In fact, should a conflict actually start, we can expect both China and Russia to side with the USA. This is all true, and yet history tells us the risk is real.
First, by taking all the ‘symbolic’ steps which could precede a war (movement of troops and missiles, ‘official warnings’, evacuation of embassies, etc.) the DPRK is actually taking the steps which would *really* precede a possible attack. In other words, an effective bluff by definition carries the risk of being taken seriously. If the North Koreans count on the Americans to ignore their threats they are making a big mistake, Why?
Because the US military fully understands that while North Korea cannot ‘win’ a war against the South, they can inflict tremendous damage on South Korea and, especially, on Seoul which is literally within the reach of North Korean artillery strikes. Besides a large, if antiquated, military, the DPRK has a very large special forces capability (25 special forces brigades in the ground forces, plus another 7000 naval special forces). Such a large number of special forces is more than adequate to create a great deal of chaos and destruction. So whether in the end the DPRK can win or not is immaterial as nobody can doubt that the DPRK can inflict a huge amount of death and destruction upon the South. Hence, if the DPRK’s bluff becomes convincing enough and an attack appears to be imminent, the US will have no other choice than to preempt it and attack first.
Second, it appears that the North Korean propaganda machine is in full swing promising an imminent war. It is unclear to me how they could create such a sense of urgency, or even panic, and then simply back down. This kind of bellicose rhetoric eventually acquires a forces of its own which can be very hard to contain.
Third, by ratcheting up the military readiness of its military the political leaders of the DPRK are putting more power in the hands of the military commanders and if only one of them decides to begin the hostilities the rest will have to follow.
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| Kim Jong-il |
Finally, and while I disapprove of Western media style demonization campaigns against putatively “bad” leaders, it the case of the DPRK it really appears that the Dear Leader is every bit a crazy psychopaths has his daddy, the Great Leader. The great weakness of any theory of deterrence is that is always assumes a rational actor. But what if we are really dealing with absolutely insane maniacs here?
What is happening here is that the USA and its allies are in the situation of a cop facing a lunatic with a knife. The lunatic cannot win, of course, but he can gravely injure the cop who, therefore, will have to open fire with his firearm as soon as the lunatic gets too close to him.
And, least I get accused of parroting the propaganda of the Western corporate media – let me say here that I have watched interviews of Russian experts who not only worked in the DPRK, but who even worked in delegations which had a direct contact with the Great Leader and the Dear Leader. They all seem to think that at the very least these two are delusional megalomaniacs and that the DPRK is a hellhole of the worst kind.
I sure hope that the current escalation stops soon and that Russia and China will be able to convince the DPRK to cut this bellicose nonsense. Neither country has, so far, evacuated its diplomats from Pyongyang even though the North Koreans have declared that they cannot ensure their safety after April 10th. Hopefully they know something I don’t. My main problem is that I don’t see any practical way to de-escalate this situation.
This will all probably end up without a full-scale war, but I would not be too inclined to dismiss such a possibility completely.
The Saker
Dear Saker,
What if the Chinese deliberately encouraged this verbal escalation on the Korean Peninsula, in order to send a warning about Syria and alleviate the pressure somehow in the Levant indirectly…?
Best,
Joe
@Joe: Greetings my friend! No, frankly, I doubt that hypothesis. For one thing, the Chinese have always preferred slow, gradual, responses. Second, I very much doubt that they would want to do anything which could, even potentially, contribute to worsen a crisis on the Korean Peninsula, nevermind starting a war, nevermind starting a nuclear war. If things get ugly, not only will North Koreans definitely flee across the borders in large numbers (something the Chinese do really not want), but the Chinese military would have to get involved in protecting China from any intrusion into its territory, airspace and national waters. Finally, since the outcome of a full-scale war is pretty obvious, the Chinese would eventually risk having US ground forces threatening China from the newly “liberated” North Korean peninsula. Bottom line – all this is way, way too close to the Chinese mainland for them to want such an outcome. And, unlike the Americans, the Chinese are not arrogant, reckless or ignorant – they are very cautious and very much aware of the examples in history were presumably a local conflict totally got out of hand.
Frankly, I think that the Chinese and the Russians are very much of one mind on this issue. They are infinitely frustrated by the Great and Dear Leaders and their lunacy, but they reluctantly believe that it is better to have a (hopefully) contained DPRK on their border than to have yet another US colony there, armed to the teeth and up to no good.
Cheers!
Saker,
I agree with your analysis, but nevertheless I think that this situation will be part and parcel of the file that Vlad Putin has to tackle with Obama in June…and there is a probability that the Chinese and Putin have agreed to prepare that theater in some way…within the equation around Syria all the way to the Korean Peninsula…which has to be addressed jointly in order to come to fruition. We are hearing more and more talk about that possibility in our neck of the woods…
Joe
Joe: first, I very much agree with you that China and Russia will carefully and closely prepare a join position on Korea and, for that matter, on any and all major international issues. Second, yes, of course, the Russians and the Chinese could provide a channel of information communications and negotiations between the two parties. And, of course, if the Americans act in their usual arrogant way, then they can simply turn their backs, wish the Yanks good-luck, and walk away from it. However, in your initial post you wrote
“What if the Chinese deliberately encouraged this verbal escalation”
and that I very much doubt for the reasons I outlined above.
Can Russia and China *USE* this situation to try to hammer some sense into the White House? Yes, definitely. But from that I do not conclude that they contributed to creating this situation in the first place as, all in all, the current crisis has far more risks for Russia and China than opportunities even if they do decide to make the best of these opportunities.
Cheers!
saker,
you need to read the wall st. journal article (from a few days ago) on the US ‘playbook’ that has been used here (google it).
all of this is scripted provocation — to which North Korea is not backing down (perhaps stupidly).
the goal is to further advance the ‘pivot’ by fortifying the system of alliances, by installing new military capacities in the region (like BMD), and to pressure China to turn against North Korea. In other words, US primacy in the Asia-Pacific is driving this conflagration.
the causality is important: most of North Korea’s military moves in the past week or so have followed US provocations. North Korea has made outlandish threats — like nuking the US — but most of its ‘actions’ have in reality been ‘words’ — whereas the US has been *acting* in belligerent ways (like sending bombers on trial runs and moving BMD around).
having said this, it is true that NK has shut down the shared industrial zone, cut the communications links to SK, and moved a few missiles around.
i’m less worried about a war, but clearly one could be sparked by idiotic moves on either side.
as you say, NK is at minimum prepped for that scenario.
@anonymous: I think I saw the article you mention on informationclearinghouse and I understand the rationale behind it. I am far from exonerating the USA from any responsibility or what is going on. All I am saying is:
1) The DPRK is acting stupidly
2) Russia and China do not approve of the DPRK’s reactions
3) The situation is very dangerous even if the North Koreans are bluffing.
But yes, of course, I have absolutely nothing good to say about the US policy towards the DPRK.
Cheers and thanks!
The Saker
This entire situation is nothing more than another Hollywood Production, to divert the American people into thinking this has nothing to do with China letting it’s dog off it’s leash.
Think for a second, China has already warned of increasing tensions because of more US missile radar and defense systems encroaching on the pacific and Asia, with new installations in Japan, and Guam. You think maybe this might have something to do with a “Dennis Rodman” laughable comedy that’s unfolding with North Korea as the proxy agent?
This entire situation is nothing more than another Hollywood Production, to divert the American people into thinking this has nothing to do with China letting it’s dog off it’s leash.
Think for a second, China has already warned of increasing tensions because of more missile radar and defense systems in Japan, and Guam. You think maybe this might have something to do with a “Dennis Rodman” laughable comedy that’s unfolding with North Korea as the proxy agent?