By Rostislav Ishchenko
Translated by Ollie Richardson and Angelina Siard
cross posted with https://www.stalkerzone.org/rostislav-ishchenko-donbass-military-political-aspects/
source: http://alternatio.org/articles/articles/item/67719-donbass-voenno-politicheskie-aspekty
Donbass, like any frontline territory with a non-determined status, is periodically covered by waves of rumours – the most improbable and the most absurd rumours, which nevertheless are spread with the speed of a virus. Despite their regular repetitiveness and regular falsifiability, they, appearing again and again, invoke trust again and again. The number of people living in Donbass who have a “friend who personally heard from Putin” the latest “artful Russian plans” concerning the fates of the People’s Republics concedes only to the number of those who “heard personally from Pushilin” the same thing.
Recently, in connection with the Ukrainian elections, rumours (which have periodically appeared over five years) became more active again that right now there is the desire to return the DPR/LPR into the structure of Ukraine. This rumour is absurd, since right now (before elections) it’s not only politically unprofitable (Russia doesn’t support Poroshenko) to return Donbass to Ukraine, but it is also technically impossible (there isn’t enough time to implement the necessary procedures).
It is obvious that the activisation of this rumour is partially connected to the recent statement of Medvedchuk, who proposed to Kiev, for the sake of ending the war and preserving Donbass as a part of Ukraine, to change the Constitution for the purpose of creating wide autonomy in Donbass. However, since Medvedchuk plays up to Tymoshenko against Poroshenko, it is clear that Kiev could start the implementation of these ideas no earlier than the elections will conclude if Tymoshenko becomes the president.
At the same time, it is necessary to consider that Yuliya Tymoshenko angrily condemned Viktor Medvedchuk’s proposal, because now she acts from a more radical nationalist position than Poroshenko in order to win the favour and support of nationalist radicals, who will indeed decide the outcome of elections. Therefore, nobody will be able to integrate Donbass anywhere either before presidential elections or immediately after them. And after this parliamentary elections will start. Thus, if there were indeed such plans, then starting their implementation earlier than a year and a half later would be practically unrealistic. For this, as a minimum, the position of Kiev must cardinally exchange. And what will happen to Donbass, Ukraine, and the world in a year’s time only God knows, and even this is with a known amount of conditionality, because he granted every person the right to make a free choice between good and evil, and the fates of countries and civilisations consist of millions of these free choices.
However, the constant sense of danger accompanying the inhabitants of Donbass is based not only on such inadequate interpretations of the bright speeches of Kiev or Moscow politicians. The main irritating factor is the non-determined status. People can’t understand why Russia didn’t take them following the example of Crimea, why the Kiev authorities were recognised in 2014, and for what purpose were the Minsk Agreements reached? Hence the wavering when the rumour about handing over Donbass “already tomorrow” is replaced by the rumour that right now Russia will not recognise the 2019 elections, will capture Kiev, and Donbass will at last enter the structure of the Russian Federation.
Meanwhile, the military-political situation that predetermined the fate of Donbass for the nearest years developed in 2014 and hasn’t yet changed. In 2014 a window of opportunities was indeed opened and was far from being exhausted by the return of Crimea to the structure of Russia and the declaration of DPR/LPR.
Before the February coup of 2014 the possibility of the entry of all of Ukraine into the Customs Union was quite real. For this purpose Yanukovych needed to only disperse Maidan and jail all prominent politicians who supported the coup attempt. This decision completely depended on a subjective factor – the personal will of Yanukovych, the level of his intelligence, and his adequacy in his job.
After the coup, during February-April a campaign to Kiev of the uprising Southeast was possible, with the informal support of Russia. In such a variant, Western Ukraine, most likely, would’ve already been lost, Crimea would’ve left for Russia (as it already happened), and the other territories, with a new pro-Russian government, would’ve joined the process of Eurasian integration. A key role in the failure of this opportunity was played by both a subjective factor (the absolute lack of readiness of new, put forward by a popular uprising, leaders of the Southeast to think not in the scale of their region {Kharkov, Donetsk, Odessa}, but in the scale of the country), and an objective factor – the idealistic idea of the masses of a revolt based on the thought that it “will be like it was in Crimea” (we will stand two days, and then “polite tanks”will come and we will go home to go about our own business).
None of the representatives of the uprising mass of the Southeast and their new elites understood that the victory of any revolt is in Kiev (in the capital). Nationalists, by the way, understood well that until they take the capital, they are just rebels, but as soon as they capture government buildings – they are already the authorities, and the mutineers – their opponents. Every region of the Southeast hoped, having marked the revolt and having hid behind Russia, to solve the issue independently and let the neighbour decide for themselves.
Here, of course, a question arises that is often asked not only in Donbass, but also in all of Ukraine: and what, Russia couldn’t liberate Russian lands with Russian people from nominally Banderists, but in reality an American occupation? Evidently, it could. But Russia can “liberate” all of Europe up to the Atlantic (which, by the way, is also under American occupation).
Does this mean that Russia must urgently start “a liberating campaign” in Europe? The question seems to be absurd, but the topic of “a liberating campaign” in Ukraine, which according to its status differs little from Serbia, is constantly discussed by the Russian and the pro-Russia Ukrainian public. Yes, in Ukraine there was a coup. But international law doesn’t provide the possibility of an incursion into an independent state only because of a violent change of power. Yes, our western “partners” often carry out coups and/or interfere in independent states under the pretext of eliminating the consequences of the coup. Nevertheless, even now, when not only the spirit, but also the letter of international law is consciously ignored in most cases by the majority of countries, such invasions/interventions are outwardly given shape in accordance with international law. For example, some local oppositionist is found (or brought, like how the USSR brought Babrak Karmal from Czechoslovakia to Afghanistan), a real or fake resistance movement is formed around them, it then establishes control over some territories, provides the transition of some officials and military personnel to its side, and only after this do foreign troops appear in the country “for the purpose of stopping bloodshed”. The appearance of “polite people” in Crimea was given shape precisely like this. Civil standoff, the threat of mass bloodshed, the non-recognition of the Kiev coup by local parliament – only after this did Russia appear there officially. And everything that was unofficial was already in play.
The corresponding conditions didn’t develop anywhere else across the entire territory of Ukraine. Yes, there were rallies that gathered 1,000/2,000 people. Yes, the regional state administrations were taken by storm. Yes, “people’s governors” were proclaimed. But at the same time, except in Crimea, in no region did the official authorities refuse to recognise the legitimacy of the coup in Kiev. Thus, Russia found itself in front of the formally monolithic unity of a 45-million state, all the authorities of which, including regional ones in the Southeast, refused to recognise Yanukovych as legitimate. But counteraction was demonstrated by several tens of thousands of people over all the country. This counteraction was unorganised, they weren’t able to either reach an agreement among themselves or formulate their aims clearly.
So from the point of view of international law, in 2014 Russia had nobody to stand up for. Those abstract “we were waiting [for Russia to liberate us]” – who indeed were in the millions – couldn’t be considered, counted, and their non-publicly expressed will presented as a justification of a right to intervene by anyone.
Of course, there was an option to spit on the legal justification of actions and to act by the right of might. But for the sake of what? An overland corridor to Crimea? This issue was solved with the help of the Crimean Bridge. Meanwhile it was clear that it won’t be possible to capture all of Ukraine in 2014. In the West (and even in the center) most of the population would be against it. And an appeal to the US, EU, and NATO with a request for help will surely be expressed. And it will be heard.
I.e., the partition of Ukraine was possible, and it’s not a fact that it would be succeeded to take all of Novorossiya and to punch a corridor up to Transnistria. It is rather on the contrary – neither Kiev, nor western “partners” were obviously going to hand over Odessa, the strangling of Transnistria in a situation of military-political chaos was quite real, and it was possible to do it quickly, during a couple of days (so that Russia has no time to react). The most sad thing in this chapter is that a part of the gas pipelines + gas storages would all the same remain under the control of the Banderist government. Only it would speak rightfully about Russian aggression, and for our friends in the EU it would be almost impossible to defend the idea of “Nord Stream-2”.
Russia would thus receive a small territorial accretion with a population that is far from being ready to fit into the Russian political system (this is seen even in the example of the small and most Russian in Ukraine Crimea), but its economic partnership with the EU would be interrupted and political relations would reach a level close to a military confrontation. Those same US bases that so far have appeared in Europe in a very moderate quantity only because most Europeans are against the deployment of new American forces would appear there without problem.
It would be necessary to manyfold strengthen the Western grouping of troops, including in the attached territories. And besides this, for the creation of an effective system of management and control it would be necessary to send a large number of administrative staff from Russia to the attached territories, and also forces of the police and FSB (Ukrainian statehood was almost destroyed, the remaining officials in their majority are incompetent, and the system of management has been destroyed).
It would be a question of the need to resettle in Ukraine hundreds of thousands of people (1-2 million, if to count them with their families) for the long term. These people would be perceived there as “Varangians” who were sent to govern (but after all, we can do it ourselves) and who “prevents us from living” in the way that “we got used to”. Since this moment any problem would be a problem “caused by Russia”, which didn’t give, do, or provide something. After all, the governors are Russian. Soon the era of “European integration” would start being remembered with nostalgia, especially since sharply increasing the standard of living of 20 million people is almost impossible, but forcing everyone to pay taxes (only the lazy in Ukraine didn’t avoid paying them) is actually very easy. Besides this, the freezing in the Ukrainian (and in general in the Western) direction of a considerable (from a third to a half) of the entire military capacity of Russia would block the possibility of pursuing an active foreign policy (including in Syria). There wouldn’t be simply anything left that could offer support.
A hypothetical Ukrainian campaign didn’t correspond to the principle, according to Liddel Hart, requirement of a successful war: “Victory is such a post-war peace that is better than the pre-war one, at least for you”.
But maybe it was possible to integrate at least Donbass into Russia following the Crimean example? No, it wasn’t. As was already said, legitimate regional authorities didn’t support the revolt. Only about a third of the total area of two regions and a half of that territory on which an independence referendum was held appeared in the hands of the revolters. To recognise and integrate them into Russia (and they can’t survive independently) is possible only within the framework of the territory under its control today. Supporting an offensive of the DPR/LPR up to the borders of regions means to start a war that leads to the partition of Ukraine, but Russia will receive even less than the biggest part of Novorossiya – it will be just two regions. The other consequences, perhaps, are a little more soft, but in general they are the same. Besides this, it is necessary to understand that by making peace on the condition of the integration of Donbass, Russia would practically reconcile with the loss of the rest of Ukraine forever (or as far as it is possible to speak about “forever” in politics in principle). I.e., the losses are the same, and the profit is even less, if we avoid saying that there isn’t any in general.
In fact, this situation of a military-political stalemate that developed in the Ukrainian direction by the summer of 2014 forced Russia to opt to freeze the situation in this direction, having transferred the center of gravity of its efforts to more promising, from the point of view of the global standoff with the US, regions – in order to return to the Ukrainian question in general, and to Donbass in particular, in more favourable conditions.
Thanks to Ollie and Angelina for this very important article that explains why Donbass is not made part of the RF, and why Ukraine is still a miasma of nazis, corruption and war crimes.
Ishchenko takes us through the analytical process the Kremlin and Military used to freeze the war to low intensity trench warfare, sniping, assassination and artillery and drone-fire exchanges.
For each why or when, Ishchenko provides an answer.
The basics are simple–not enough Ukrainians revolted when the separatists under Strelkov formed the militia.
Not enough officials asked to separate their regions from Kiev. Not enough people joined the militia. Not enough people resisted the Kiev putsch. And once the ATO began, terror ruled Ukraine.
The burden would have been enormous geopolitically on Russia, on its military and on the need to govern Ukraine, which at the time had 42-45 million people and a sour economy poised to descend not rise.
Though Donbass separatists fought heroically, they actually failed to gain all of Donbass. They retreated and were saved by North Wind volunteers. Also, the massive stupidity of Ukraine’s military led to the victories of the militia as much as their courage and audacity. So, it is easy to overestimate further military action by the militia. Without direct involvement of Russia forces, it is unlikely that all of Donbass, much less all of Novorossiya could ever be conquered under the force structure of 2014-2015.
Minsk 2 was the means of freezing the military and beginning the long struggle to wait until Kiev falls of its own dead weight.
So, until or unless Kiev launches a full assault that threatens the fall of Donetsk or Lugansk and the collapse of Donbass, or if madness truly strikes and Kiev blows up the Kerch bridge or launches missiles at Russia itself, the strategy is to wait. Ultimately, the Kremlin expects Ukraine to break into pieces on its own. This may take another 5 years. It is very hard to predict a timetable of such an event. The US can keep Kiev afloat with 10 Billion Dollars per year. The Russophobes in DC believe this is well worth the ‘investment’.
The tragedy of Donbass is not that Russia did not take it in like Crimea. The sad facts are that the separatists were unable to attract a majority in Novorossiya and a few million more souls to their rebellion. Across Novorossiya, as Ishchenko remarks, the people stayed in their homes and accepted the Kiev government. Only in Mariupol and Odessa were there significant resistance, all of which was crushed in murderous actions by the nazis.
The facts are the facts. The separation of East Ukraine was a partial rebellion. The grassroots support was limited. The Kremlin did a cost-risk analysis and judged that it would not step into the ‘big muddy’. It could not rescue Novorossiya or even push the militia to the full oblast borders of the two regions.
It was unsustainable and would risk Russia’s economy and military security, as well as prevent the inevitable military operation in Syria. Russian military intelligence was on the ground in Syria since 2013 and knew the day would come soon for the need for Russian involvement in the war to save Syria.
Ishchenko lays it out authoritatively.
“The US can keep Kiev afloat with 10 Billion Dollars per year.”
Especially since it actually costs them nothing as long as the US Dollar is the means of international settlements. They just print off the money (or electronic equivalent” and the rest of the world gives them real goods or services in exchange. The US is the worlds premier counterfeiter, particularly or its own currency.
The guys in Donbass are a hardy stock, real muzhiki. as the Russian say. Amazing, Like the performers in the video clip I recently discoivered that just left me shattered. A 2014 music video clip called “We are of one blood”, Shot in Crimea with fairly poetic and somehat detached lyrics, it claims blood relation of the three different performers, and the clue is at the end of the clip on the license plates. Amazing: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0VlbgMKTLY
I wonder, is the name “Майданов” real or made up? Looking at the title of the clip I see Ukrainian. Perhaps a propaganda clip to mess with “other’s” heads?
Майдан Maidan is a Turkic word for “(market) square” and is widely used across Russia, just Google “village of Maidan Russia” in Russian. There is one in practically any Russian region. So the word is not alien to Russians, and the singer’s family name is quite natural. See his bio at https://24smi.org/celebrity/3774-denis-maidanov.html
The song was written by Voitenko, ehtnic Ukrainian of the Bayan Mix duo. They invited Denis Maidanov for the clip. The musicians are extraordinary, I think Putin invited them to perform at the Austrian Foreign Minster’s wedding party. You can check on their site and see some videos – fireballs of energy throughout their long concerts http://www.bayan-mix.ru/
Larchmonter445
You have to mention the psychological factor. How many people expected that coup d’etat in 2014 and how many people thought there would be war in Ukraine ? Not easy for two Orthodox Slavic people to fight each other, bearing in mind Ukrainians are all of Russian origin (the former Galicia excluded). Maybe not enough people joined Strelkov, but this does not mean that those who did not join him did not support him. Also, many did join him, enough to make a difference. As I said, the situation, from the psychological point of view, was complex.
As I have written before, analysts since 2017 are predicting that Ukraine will break up into three parts. I think it’s going that way. When it comes to Putin, he is playing the role of a strategist, not the role of a tactician. It’s the grand plan that counts.This means that about 75 % of current Ukraine will rejoin Russia (the eastern and central parts), while western Ukraine will become an area of contention between Poland and Hungary. Putin is playing the waiting card. As for keeping Kiev afloat with 10 billion dollars a year, I am not sure the US can afford it. Even if it could, that money would mean almost nothing. Kiev borrowed 3 billion dollars from the IMF, and it ended up in off shore accounts. Big surprise. Now I am reading that the FBI is investigating who embezzled the money. That should not be too hard to figure out.
Excellent analysis. It’s a waiting game, and it could be a long wait for Banderastan to self-destruct. Franco hung on for decades, as did Pinochet and dozens of lesser military dictators with US/NATO backing. Ultimately it depends on Russia becoming an example of prosperity equal to or surpassing the EU. People in Ukraine or other Eastern European countries are going to orient toward whichever alliance gives them the better standard of living. If Crimea achieves a significantly better standard of living than Nazified Ukraine, it will become something of a West Berlin creating constant discontent within Ukraine, especially among the Russian oriented population. The new bridges and airport are a good start on this, as is the example of Sochi.
OK, so it would be “hard” to get Donbass into Russia.
Still, it would not be “hard” for Russia to stomp the crap out of the Ukraine military, execute the oligarchs, wipe out the neo-Nazi battalions, disarm the Ukrainian military – then go home. By “go home”, I mean full retreat, leaving no Russian “administration” behind. In other words, zero footprint and zero “occupation” – just as it is now..
Yes, the US and the EU would moan about it, and there would be negative consequences for Russia on the geopolitical front. So what? Those consequences are already occurring with regularity. Now that the US is already out of the INF, how long before those missiles start appearing in the slave states of the eastern EU. Whether the EU states are willing to accept them is irrelevant – they will accept them or face US sanctions and other pressures which they are hardly able to reject.
The positive result of Russia going into Ukraine would be Ukraine rendered unable to cause any military trouble for Donbass, nor would Ukraine be able to threaten Russia at all, nor would the US or EU be able to use Ukraine to cause trouble for Russia. Ukraine’s internal political situation could work itself out on its own terms. Which means there might well not be any “partition” of Ukraine since the Banderists would be unable to use military pressure on Donbass.
Bottom line: Lancing the boil of the Banderist nationalists in Ukraine rather then letting it fester is more rational than this article admits.
@RS Hack: “it would not be hard for Russia to stomp the crap out of the Ukraine military, execute the oligarchs, wipe out the neo-Nazi battalions, disarm the Ukrainian military – then go home”.
Then go home? But if they did all that you suggest, Russia would already be at home! The Ukraina are even more home for Russia than the Crimea is — by at least 8 centuries. Remember the great speech by Barbara in The Cherry Orchard, about tramping to hear the holy bells of Kiev.
The Liddel Hart quote is especially well-stated…”according to Liddel Hart, requirement of a successful war: “Victory is such a post-war peace that is better than the pre-war one, at least for you”.
Good essay. The term “stalemate” may however be a poor choice, and “glacial standoff” might be more accurate, and as Marx and many say, ethics is circumstantial – wait and the glacier will provide, as the author says, “more favorable conditions”. (This criticism is merely literary, not substantial..)
Glaciers sometimes change their rate of change, and even the rate of the rate of change, etc, Now, there are indications of sudden or rapid changes in the abilities and character of Imperium, and also in the US itself (which may be understood to itself be a satrap of Empire) suggest that the circumstance of global war do not favor Imperial Lust…
Times Change, and “MacBeths’ cabal” does leave the scene… exeunt Tyrannus? Anytime…
As I can understand the “translation”: it only reinforces Putin’ position to stay out of the fray relative to a complete takeover and only protect his interests in the Crimean peninsula hoping and waiting that Ukraine would sort itself out. What a mess! Who would want to try to solve it with so much opposition ,not only to Russia, but even within the whole of Ukraine which can`t even organise a race to the outhouse. Putin’ brillient moves to contain Ukraines navy and prevent a massive massacre in Crimea is nothing short of a (legitimate) miracle.
Similarly, in America, a petition to sell Montana to Canada for $1 trillion has recieved a great deal of support. Montana residents support the measure of joining Canada without having to move, what about Wisconsin? I say, hell yes!
After over 2 years of Meuller investigating Trump and Russian collusion of being under control of the Kremlin, Putin, and the KGB, Mueller and the DNC and never Trumpers are left with a single statement, “Nevermind.”
Never mind the fact that US national credibility has been shot to hell, never mind that we have destroyed a golden opportunity in history to develope a mutually respectful and beneficial relationship with our 2 time world war allies, never mind that the INF has been destroyed over blatant lies, never mind that Russia can now aim hypersonic missiles at us, and western Europe and eastern bloc European nations, never mind that we wasted tax payer dollars for over 2 years based on a third rate erotica dossier that we knew to be entirely fabricated all along.