I don’t have much respect for the corporate media and, for that matter, very little for most of the alternative media. But the prize for stupid, delusional, or even outright psychotic reporting goes to the Iranian Fars news agency which managed to print the following:
“Russian atomic submarines” and “1000” tanks will soon come to Syria. Right. I don’t know what the hell the folks at Fars are smoking, but they all should be fired and get a job at the National Enquirer or DEBKAfile.
Just to be absolutely clear, let me repeat:
==>>The Russians are NOT, repeat, NOT coming<<==
The Saker
There is nothing more irresponsible for a government than to put its troops in the line of fire in an adventurous operation where there is going to be certain defeat. Russia is not going to do that and those who believe otherwise are deluded. I expect fantasy from people like Tarpley but Fars should know better.
@Robert
It is the reason that Russia did not occupy all of Georgia during the Georgian war of 2008 rather optioning to create a buffer zone between Georgia and the breakaway republics because they know that the US and NATO would start trafficking terrorists into the region and get Russia bogged down into another conflict like Chechnya that they are trafficking into the North Caucasus anyway via Georgian embassies in the Mid East and regimes like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait.
Russia should promote a UN safety zone for Syrian Christians as a protectorate for orthodox and other Christian sects in the Mid East, Armenia, Greece, Southern Cyprus and Serbia.
Robert is absolutely correct. Sending any troops to Syria would be foolish for Russia. let NATO waste its resources on wars.
Besides, if Russia REALLY wanted to prevent an attack on Syria they have an easy means right at hand: Stop NATO resupply to Afghanistan. Now that the US and Pakistan have had a falling out, Russia is in control of the supply rout. That’s a pretty strong leverage point that doesn’t put a single Russian soldier at risk or cost Russia any money.
I’m not saying they would use it, but they might.
At least it would be in Russia’s interests leave some ambiguity about it in the minds of NATO geniuses.
@Russia should promote a UN safety zone for Syrian Christians as a protectorate for orthodox and other Christian sects in the Mid East, Armenia, Greece, Southern Cyprus and Serbia.
You gotta be kiddin…
@Lysander: Lysander, my friend, how are you? What is your take on what is happening in Egypt?
@VINEYARDSAKER:
“You gotta be kiddin…”
Absolutely not.
Why should Russia not promote itself as the defender of Orthodox Christianity when for the past 20+ years with US/EU/NATO backing Muslims have been attacking and expanding into traditional Orthodox regions?
It is already a protectorate of Armenia against the Turkish-Azeri alliance with Washington pushing Turkey as the most prominent power to capitalise in the wake of the Arab Spring.
@Jack:Absolutely not.
Ok. I don’t have what it takes to convince you of anything. As with Sean, somebody else is welcome to try, but I have neither the time, energy or skills to try to reason with you. Sorry.
@VINEYARDSAKER:
Why wouldn’t they protect and create regional alliances with the Orthodox and other Christian communities in the Mid East and traditional friendly states aligned with Russia?
Every other major country does it creating ethnic security and trade alliances. Lebannon is a good example of this.
The world is not control by greedy and faceless corporations whose sole purpose is to require wealth with no national ethnic or religious allegiance, it is controlled by ethnicities and who they are aligned with and what regions of vital trade, sea port access, water, energy, etc they inhabit or what is traditionally called spheres of influence.
FWIW, I agree that Russia won’t go full-force to defend Assad. Instead, I think they are using this as an opportunity to embarrass the West and get Obama on the “back foot” diplomatically.
Walter Russell Mead agrees:
http://blogs.the-american-interest.com/wrm/2012/06/18/obama-bluffs-on-syria-putin-cleans-him-out/
If Russia can convince the West that intervention is more costly, uncertain and embarrassing than it is worth, then Russia wins. In other words, increase the FUD (fear, uncertainty and doubt) factor as much as possible.
It looks to me like Putin is playing a weak hand quite well. Good marks so far.
Hi Saker!
As I write this, I’m awaiting the announcement of the presidential election “results.”
The situation is not good at all. I guess SCAF looked at the possibility of loosing power closely and at the last minute changed their minds. Morsi should have withdrawn his candidacy the moment they dissolved parliament, and called the whole process a charade.
But that is the way with the brothers. They were backstabbers who were too clever by half from the first moment.
1) First they caled on their members to avoid protesting in the first 3 days. They only agreed to join on the fourth day when protests seemd to be going on without them.
2) Second, they tried their own backstage negotiations with the regime before Mubarak fell.
3) Throughout last summers protests, the MB always sided with the SCAF.
Their goal all along was not a revolution, but to get the military to through them a few bones and they would be happy with that. Now it all has blown up in their faces. They will not even get their bones. Now they want to protest and are asking the liberals who started the whole thing going to join them in their protests. But where were they last summer when we needed them?
The problem is that if the leftists join the protests, the MB could cut a deal with the military and leave them out to dry.
What I’m hoping for is for the military to go ahead and announce Shafik the winner. At least that will galvanize the opposition. If SCAF is smart they will give the powerless presidency to Morsi and allow him to be a good little puppet. (notice the actual voting doesn’t matter at all)
We shall see.
@Lysander: sure looks like your predictions were spot on and that the military feels safe with Morsi. I suppose that he will be like the queen in the UK: he will reign but not govern…
Do you think that there is any chance to still save the Revolution?
“Do you think that there is any chance to still save the Revolution?”
Yes, but its going to be a process of years. People are much more active than before. The biggest result of the revolution is an awakening and activist public. I doubt the SCAF can put that genie back in the bottle.
Though, I doubt he will do it, Morsi is now in a good position to agitate and cause problems for SCAF if he feels like it.
In short, sooner or later, Egypt will be ok. What I’m really worried about is Syria. They clearly want to break it up into several smaller pieces and I’m worried they might succeed. Even without an open NATO attack, they can collapse the state through constant terrorism. And if they can’t then there will likely be an attack.
While I don’t expect Russia to intervene, I do hope they will do whatever they can to make it as costly as possible for NATO.
@Lysander:While I don’t expect Russia to intervene, I do hope they will do whatever they can to make it as costly as possible for NATO.
I think that this is what the upcoming meeting between Putin and Netanyahu will be all about. Putin knows that the US is an Israeli colony so instead of wasting his time with the puppet, he goes directly to the puppeteer. I think that the Russian really do not want a “Bosnia v4, Kosovo v3 or a Libya v2 in Syria” and while I do categorically deny that they will ever militarily engage NATO over this, they are trying hard to use their influence behind the scenes to get some kind of “landing with breaks on” (as the Russian expression goes) to this situation.
Remember that, paradoxically, Israel and Russia have pretty a good relationship (which is a very complex topic I shall not expand upon now) and that Putin does have a lot of traction with Netanyahu & Co.
Also, it appears that at least some Bilderbergers are against a US/NATO attack on Syria.
So I am *very moderately* hopeful that this visit might produce some positive results.
My 2cts.
Ref the original post; that was more or less my reaction too – until I read this.
Now I’m not so sure. In company with GEAB I rate the prospect of a US/Israeli attack on Iran BEFORE the US election as odds-on. And I reckon Russia, China, and Iran are doing all they possibly can to prevent it.
Reports by 2 official/semi-official news outlets (there may be others) are making me ponder whether or not there might be more to this than both our initial judgements.