From Odessa to Transnistria – will Crazy Misha start another war?

While the situation in the Donbass appears to be currently “frozen” in something of a “violence during a ceasefire” situation, events in the southwestern Ukraine have taken a sharp turn for the worse.

Odessa

By now, you must have heard that Saakashvili has been appointed governor of the Odessa region and, like everybody else, you must have had the giggle when you read that. So did I. But besides the comically ludicrous aspect to this nomination, there is a much, much more ominous aspect to it. Three things in particular are extremely worrisome in this context:

First, Odessa is considered as the single most potentially dangerous city by the Ukronazis themselves. The reason for that is that the city and the surrounding areas are solidly and massively pro-Russian and anti-Nazi. Most of the Nazis have, in fact, been imported from other regions, so we are talking about a few hundred Ukronazi deathsquad members at most. Yes, they currently are in firm control of the city thanks to their Gestapo-like methods, but they still are despised and hated. A much more powerful local force is the mob, most of which is still controlled by Kolomoisky who, according to many analysts, is the target of this bizarre nomination. Indeed, Saakashvili is a US puppet and thus will not negotiate some kind of deal with Kolomoisky. In fact, Saakashvili will execute any anti-Kolomoisky order. In other words, we have have the Ukronazis and the US-controlled mobsters fighting for power against a backdrop of a largely pro-Russian population. A perfect recipe for violence.

Second, ask yourself the following question: what are Saakashvili’s credentials? It is pretty obvious that his only “qualification” is his rabid hatred for Russia and Russians and his willingness to execute any US order. That, and his willingness to massacre civilians and peacekeepers (more about that later). So what this nomination is is not just simply a crude attempt at catering to the Ukronazis. It is also an attempt to place Odessa firmly into US hands. Of course, Odessa is now a vital port for the rump-Ukraine for economic reasons, but what it also offers is a port for any military vessel, including USN ships. Why might the USN want to dock in Odessa? Here is why:

Third, Odessa is less than 100km away from the Transnistrian city of Tiraspol, which is located at the southern end of long “Transnistrian corridor” between the Ukraine and Moldova. See for yourself:

Thus, not only can Odessa be used to reinforce or resupply any Ukrainian attack on the Transnistrian Moldav Republic (TMR), but it can also be used as a base to try to prevent any Russian attempt to resupply her forces in the TMR.

Transnistrian Moldav Republic

The TMR is currently facing a blockade on all sides: from the West the TMR is blockaded by the US-controlled Moldova (backed by the US colony of Romania) and from the East by the Ukronazi state. One look at the geography of the TMR is you will see that it is impossible to defend, especially on both sides at the same time. Sure, in the war for the independence of the TMR in 1990-1992 the Russian 14th Army did force an end to the hostilities, but at that point the Ukraine was neutral/indifferent and Moldova very weak. Moldova is still very weak, and just like in the Donbass, the army of the TMR is better equipped, better trained and much more motivated, but this time around the threat is really on both sides.

The Ukronazis have been preparing for a TMR “attack” for a year. Just like in the East, they have also started to dig and “anti-tank ditch” as if the tiny TMR (population: 500’000) was about to attack the immense Ukraine (population: 44’000’000). Needless to say, the true purpose of such “defensive” measures is to create a sense of danger crisis which is ideal for a false flag or a “pre-emptive counter-attack”.

There are also Russian peacekeepers in the TMR. And now, the Ukronazis freaks have appointed Saakashvili as governor of Odessa – a man with a proven record of murdering Russian peacekeepers and starting crazy wars.

Russian options

Unlike in the Donbass were geography gives a huge advantage to Russia, in the TMR all the advantages are on the Empire’s side. Compare the two regions:

	Novorussia	Transnistria
Border with Russia	yes	no
Size of defense forces	large	small
NATO proximity	far away	nearby
Ability to sustain itself	excellent	poor
Length of line of contact	manageable	immense
Control of airspace	Russia	NATO
Can be blockaded	no	yes
Russian peacekeepers	no	yes
International attention	yes	none
Could Russia be forced to intervene?	unlikely	yes
Ease of possible Russian intervention	easy	very hard

It appears that on the TMR the West holds all the cards. While in theory Russia has the means to mount an airlift operation similar to the one mounted by the USA during the Berlin crisis, in practice these two situation are dramatically different: in 1948-1949 nobody really wanted a war, but in 2015 the Ukronazis are desperate for one. Still, there is no doubt that the junta does not have the military means to prevent a Russian airlift to the TMR, but what if Moldavia declared that its territory has been “invaded” by Russia and the Ukraine declares that its airspace is being violated? What if NATO decides to provide Patriot missiles or, God forbid, aircover by a “coalition of the willing” for a no-fly zone? I personally do not see NATO directly going to war with Russia over the TMR – what they probably really want is a proxy war – but the risk is much more real than in Novorussia.

For months now I have been saying that NATO does not have a military option in the Ukraine, but for all the same reasons, I don’t see any viable Russian military options in the TMR. But what if Russian peacekeepers are attacked? At this point Russia would have no choice and would have to intervene. And even if Russian peacekeepers are not attacked, will they just stand by and watch how the local population suffers the terrible consequences of a blockade?

Yet again I come back to the same thing I have been repeating over and over again: there is not “Novorussian solution” to the Ukrainian crisis. The only real solution to the war(s) in/around the Ukraine is regime change in Kiev followed by a de-Nazification of the country. There is no other solution.

Some will suggest a rather naive “solution”: let the Novorussians take Maripol, open a land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, from there mount a land and naval attack to liberate Nikolaev and Odessa and finish the triumphal march with a quick dash towards the TMR border. In theory this all looks simple, but in reality this would be a major and clear act of war by Russia, it would require a full-scale intervention of the Russian military, and it would be a dream come true for NATO and the AngloZionists. Not to mention that there is no support for anything like that in Russia herself.

And yet, some very qualified folks are of the opinion that Russia will have no choice. Just listen to Lieutenant-General (Ret) Leonid Reshetnikov (KGB/SVR) foreign intelligence:

I personally doubt that Russia will agree to recognize the TMR and then sign a defense treaty with it. For one thing, Putin was not elected to save the world, not even Syria, the Donbass or the TMR. Putin was elected first and foremost to stand up for the interests of the Russian people from and in Russia. It is all very well to say that the Russian military “must” intervene here or there unless, of course, you are the one having to explain grieving families why their loved one had to die far away from home. I have also said this here a million times, there is *no* support in Russia for any form of imperialism, including the “humanitarian” one. Finally, while we in the West are used to dismiss international law as a useless and hypocritical concept which nobody has to pay any attention to, the folks in the Kremlin take international law very seriously and the all these “grand plans” for the “easy” resolution of the TMR crisis have major legal implications, to put it mildly.

The only option left for Russia is covert, behind-the-scenes, actions. The usual mix of threats, bribes, influence, economics and other asymmetrical measures to try to delay/soften the effects of the current blockade. This is not much, but that is all that Russian can do right now.

Conclusion

Having Saakashvili in Odessa is a very ominous development. While right now a shooting war is not imminent, the situation there has potentially some very dangerous implications and could result in a full-scale conflict. Should violence blow-up in Odessa or Transnistria we can count on the “hurray patriots” to demand that Putin take immediate military action and, when he refuses to, they will declare urbi et orbi that “Putin sold out Odessa” and/or “Putin sold out Transnistria” (just check those who are, again, saying that “Putin sold out Syria”). And if open violence does not break out, and the population of the TMR is condemned to slowly accept a Gaza-like “open air concentration camp” situation, Russia will also be accused of doing nothing.

There are no good option for Russia right now and all Russia can do is to work as fast as possible to achieve regime change in Kiev. If the US foreign policy towards the Ukraine suffers a crushing blow, Uncle Sam will probably have little stamina left to engage in yet another major effort in Transnistria, especially if the Ukraine finally slips out of the USA’s grip. But until then the TMR is in a very bad situation indeed, and time is not on its side.

The Saker

Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 9:09 pm EST/EDT

Some more economic information about Transnistria and one of it’s biggest company called Sheriff. It might be useful for the enthusiasts who want to go there and re-colonize the region after a potential war (Uncle Bob and Ann, are you up for it ? Are you good at smuggling and making deals under the table ?):

Political disengagement has been profitable to a few local businesses. The isolationist policies of
authorities have allowed a local holding company, Sheriff, to forge an unchallenged monopoly on
the region’s economy. Sheriff was founded by two state security officers who started a business
initially masked as a charity to support the families of other policemen. In the 1990s, they began
taking over the booming cigarette smuggling business. At that time locals made money smuggling
cigarettes from Ukraine to Transnistria and onward to Europe. Gradually Sheriff took over other
informal businesses that generated significant income (cigarettes, liquor, and frozen chicken legs,
among other things). In the words of one resident, Sheriff was untouchable: “Nobody could touch
them because they had significant contacts with the police and military, as well as with the MGB.”
Sheriff took over the niche opportunities that allowed residents to make money in the aftermath of
the war. Like many successful economic entities in the former Soviet Union, who actually stands
behind Sheriff remains a mystery; its two owners are well-known figures, but it is unclear what
control they exercise. Some residents believe that members of the President’s family are silent
partners, while others say that Sheriff is simply the economic arm of the “power ministries.”
Sheriff’s dominance can be traced to a 1996 contract it concluded with PMR authorities on “mutual
cooperation.” This arrangement created the preconditions for monopolizing trade in the region.
President Igor Smirnov “recommended” that the state rent the largest (and most profitable) state
food stores to Sheriff. At the time, these stores were stocked with local products and patronized
because of their prices, selection, and locations. They were Soviet-style stores, with separate counters for each department, but they functioned. Gradually, they were closed and replaced by western-style Sheriff supermarkets. For closing its competition, Sheriff was rumored to have paid a half-million dollars up front and monthly financial aid to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Sheriff’s monopoly was not built upon ingenuity or hard work, but upon connections, that most valuable commodity in the former Soviet Union.

Sheriff’s businesses grew to cover a wide variety of industries and include a network of
supermarkets, gas stations, and Moldova’s most successful football club, which boasts a massive
training complex and stadium outside the city. Sheriff controls a large regional bank in addition to
owning the sole telephone (fixed and mobile) and Internet service provider in the region. Other
businesses include textiles, broadcast television, cable/satellite television, auto sales, publishing,
cognac production, bread making, meat/poultry production, milk production, aquaculture, second-
hand clothing, light manufacturing, and a local advertising firm.

Sheriff has its own customs broker and logistics company that serves as an intermediary for other
small businesses. One informant told me of a friend who was looking to import kegs of beer to sell
during the hot summer months. After formalizing the details of his business plan, he scheduled a
meeting with Sheriff. He was directed to the office of an executive who explained how business
would proceed: Sheriff would import the beer trucks through their own customs yard, and he would
be responsible for paying a fixed fee per truck. Sheriff would handle the documents, logistics, and
conveyance to and from the customs yard. He would not be paying the state customs yard, but
rather Sheriff for the privilege of conducting business. The terms of the deal were not negotiable,
and it was made clear to him that there would be consequences if he proceeded without Sheriff.
Whether you run a small market or kiosk, you purchase your inventory at one of Sheriff’s wholesale depots. Sheriff makes sure that wholesale prices on certain goods remain high for their competitors to ensure that people continue to patronize their supermarkets.

Sheriff supermarkets are known for their creative expiration dates. Friends warned me to avoid dairy
products, explaining that they would buy expired stock, change the expiration dates, and sell it as
fresh. Since Moldovan imports were prohibitively taxed at 100%, Sheriff had no competition and
could dictate the terms of sale, since no alternative suppliers could exist in the region. Sheriff is also
known for its harsh treatment of workers, and due to the precarious economic situation they have
an unlimited reserve of labor in the region. In the alcohol section, all wine and liquor (except wine
from Moldova) lack customs stamps. Cigarettes sold in Sheriff also bear no customs stamps. Often,
western-branded products found in Sheriff are counterfeit. One foreign researcher visiting Tiraspol
purchased a counterfeit Colgate toothbrush that resulted in bleedings gums and Old Spice
deodorant that left a rash. The emergence of the region as a sop for imported gray-market
foodstuffs has decimated local food producers, as their products are now unprofitable. Despite
having some of the most productive agricultural land in Moldova, the region imports a
disproportionate amount of its food. As the first western-style supermarket in the region, Sheriff’s
consumerist offerings index civility. On more than one occasion, residents remarked to me about
how they felt like a human being when shopping at Sheriff, because they did not have to ask a sales attendant for each and every item they wished to purchase. Consistency and chain, the bane of consumerism in the America, indexes progress itself. Shopping as civilization.

Sheriff makes life difficult for small businesses. One small business owner I interviewed had $500 worth of cigarettes confiscated simply because they had Ukrainian customs stamps (the cigarettes were purchased locally). A recent law (rumored to have been passed at the behest of Sheriff) made the sale of Ukrainian cigarettes illegal. This rule forced smokers to purchase contraband tobacco products supplied, of course, by Sheriff. Consequently, cigarettes with Ukrainian customs stamps increased in value, since they were seen as unadulterated. Demand swelled, and customs officials on the PMR’s eastern border with Ukraine were directed to intercept shipments. It was common knowledge that border guards themselves preferred Ukrainian cigarettes. Once it was clear that this regulation was not being effectively enforced, Sheriff put its own employees on the border to
monitor the situation. The border, the physical limit of the state’s coercive powers, was policed by
those serving not a state institution that held a monopoly on violence, but a quasi-state institution
that held a monopoly on trade. Despite Sheriff’s best efforts, smokers can still find Ukrainian
cigarettes. The cigarettes for sale in Sheriff supermarkets look almost exactly like the Ukrainian
brands previously available. The packaging is the same, though some have fake duty-free stickers:
duty free Philippines, Dubai, and, perhaps most curiously, “North Africa.”

Sheriff has created a diffuse economic structure that blurs the line between business and politics.
On paper, it is a holding company, a company that owns other companies’ outstanding stock. Yet in
reality, Sheriff is a company that has profited from close relations to the state. Its low tax burden, its
widely publicized charity programs for pensioners, and its ubiquitous corporate logo (an old
Western-style sheriff’s badge) lend it an aura of invincibility within the region. Sheriff’s name and
logo perhaps best exemplify how in the PMR the law functions at the level of representation. Those
charged with enforcing the law represent only themselves and their own interests, not the interests
of the state or any abstract notion of justice. For Sheriff, the law is but an icon, a corporate logo, a
brand that both alludes to what is lacking in the PMR (the law as an objective tool of justice) yet
ubiquitous at the symbolic level. Locals readily accept the Sheriff supermarket chain as “ours,”
settled custom in the region

195 Comments

Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 4:39 pm EST/EDT

Transnistra:

http://russia-insider.com/en/alexei-mozgovoi-oligarchs-are-still-our-main-enemy/ri7569

We must have more solidarity among ourselves than the oligarchs have with each other or we will doom the struggle.
- The Kulak on June 02, 2015 · at 5:39 am EST/EDT
  
  Saker,
  
  I don’t think the freaks in Kiev are going to succeed in baiting Putin into all out war this time. Seems not only are they overestimating the ability of a handful of old S-300s to interdict a Russian airlift into Transnistria from Crimea, but they’re also certain that Ukrainian Su-27 or MiG-29 pilots want to die a glorious death for Banderastan attacking Russian IL-76s with Crimea-based Su-30 combat air patrol escort all the way to Ukrainian air space. The junta’s older model S300s/S200s unless modified by You Know Who are going to have the same ‘off switch’. The junta’s own BUKs placed in Odessa always run the risk as piss poorly trained as the Ukies are that they will blast an airliner out of the sky as easily as a Russian IL-76 (in fact that may be what happened with MH17). At any rate, I suspect GRU spetsnaz are considering all of the scenarios for both air-based and ground-based ‘off switch’ solutions if there is any way to avoid blowing away the SAMs and killing the crews on what the Americans called in Vietnam ‘Wild Weasel’ missions. Russia after all does not want any unnecessary loss of life whereas the junta is perfectly happy to see every SAM crew it has die as long as it gets a few more billion in freshly printed e-greenbacks to solve its looming default problem.
  
  http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/05/ukraine-nazis-target-american.html
  
  See the hacked emails of George Soros to Poroshenko that appear to be authentic and consistent with the names of Soros International Crisis Group and personal assistant cohorts — GS is looking for a way to insert NATO troops into Donbass or train the Ukies much closer to the front lines while denying it…I guess those ‘Italian speaking Ukrainian National Guardsmen’, ‘Ukrainian’ troops who spoke only broken or forgotten Russian and English with Polish accents, and ‘outta my face guy” the swarthy complected masked fellow who said he was with the Marines in Iraq just aren’t getting the job done, and neither is the overt deployment of the 173rd U.S. Airborne and a few score British or Canadian troops to Yavoriv.
  
  http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/06/cyber-berkut-hacked-correspondence-of.html
  
  While it’s a mistake to underestimate the freaks or how far the U.S. will go, I get the sense from observing the sociopathic psyops warrior Joel Harding and the junta’s diminutive EuroMaidanPR ‘war porn’ spinner Thomas Theiner that the claim Romanians and Moldovans are eager and ready to avenge 1940 and make the blockade against PMR/Transnistria stick is a bluff. Certainly I don’t see NATO being able to sacrifice Romanian pilots and planes as cannon fodder then scream about Article 5 and the Germans or French buying it at NATO HQ in Brussels, blackmailed by NSA/GCHQ or not, especially when Russia will never attack Romanian or Moldovan territory unless gravely provoked.
  
  In essence what I see happening here is the Empire is trying to ‘psych out’ or ‘psyop’ the Kremlin into believing that its only options in Transnistria are war/invasion of Odessa oblast or surrendering the exclave or at least the peacekeeping garrison in or outside of Tiraspol and inviting the Moldovan/Romanian/Polish peacekeeper contigent in. Yet at every turn since Putin allowed Yanukovych to be overthrown by a fast moving conspiracy rather than directly intervene and cement Yanuk as the evil iron fisted dictator in Western propaganda, we have seen VVP and the Kremlin zig when the West expects them to zag, and avoid all out war, while also not surrendering core Russian interests. The ‘hooray patriots’ it seems to me simply lack imagination or not understand even Crimea the means Russia has at its disposal not to step in the Bear trap. Including carrots like Xi’s right hand man suddenly flying to Bucharest and offering the poor Romanians a better Silk Road or even old worn out Ploesti oil fields redevelopment deal, rather than slaving for the Empire as the poorest EU member.
  
  Furthermore, the ‘hooray patriots’ haven’t factored in that Russia can finally do what many have been pleading for it to do — cut off the gas or even more importantly the coal — without freezing Ukrainians to death, because we’re in summer and we’ll soon be in autumn, not the dead of winter. Let Porky try to maintain the blockade or prevent a hyrvnia panic with his pal Soros after the brownouts and rolling blackouts start across Banderastan while the junta can just keep the lights on in Kiev. Let Porky go beg the Poles for free coal he can’t pay for. Let Joel Harding and the pysops warriors spin the Russian demotivators, featuring Stalin famously asking how many divisions does the Pope have, and then Nuland asking Pyatt how many coal trains does the U.S. Embassy in Kiev have for their puppets?
  
  http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/01/xyz-what-would-happen-if-russian-army.html
  If the Israelis have an ‘off switch’ to older generation Russian SAMs, you can bet Russia does too
  
  Finally, if Joel Harding or the other NATO psyops warriors are reading this — remember the anonymous Russian officer telling Ft. Rus that Mother Russia has an ‘off switch’ for everything Kiev can field? Yeah, think about that and how you’re going to be humiliated again like you were in Crimea when Russia’s IL-76s fly right on over Odessa oblast and there won’t be a damn thing you can do about it without starting WWIII. Especially if one of the transports flying into Tiraspol is CHINESE. Saakashvili is going to eat his tie…again.
  - The Kulak on June 02, 2015 · at 6:22 am EST/EDT
    
    When Lt. Gen. (ret) Reshetnikov says the junta needs to be persuaded by tough means, I don’t think he’s talking about diplomatic remonstrance. I think he means cutting off the regime’s coal shipments from Russia and from the Donbass via Russians and Kharkov oblast. Let them plot with NATO on how they can wage two front war on Donbass and Transnistria this summer in the dark. Then the negotiations to lift the blockade from the Ukrainian if not Moldovan side can begin. I don’t know as much about the feasibility of cutting Moldova’s gas supply until they stop on their end, since Chisinau gets gas via Romania.
    
    Cut off the coal and prep Simferapol airport in Crimea for the airlift!
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on June 04, 2015 · at 9:53 am EST/EDT
      
      The problem with confronting the Yankee Reich and its satraps (which is inevitable) is that there is no way of doing so without risking full-scale war. Over the last forty years, as the US has driven the West ever further Right, as Western economies have stagnated under the depredations of insatiably greedy elites, religiously and psychologically hostile to the 99% of ‘moochers’, and as China has risen, Western societies have been purged of all but psychopaths in all the circles of power. A world run by Uncle Obama, Cameron, Hollande, Merkel, Abbott, Harper, Netanyahu et al furiously supporting undisguised fascists like Saakashvili, Abe, Poroshenko, the various Baltic invertebrates, Zenawi, Kagame, al-Sisi et al , is a world set on self-destruction. The best policy for Russia, China etc is to hunker down, arm to the teeth, spend massively on civil defence and build decent, humane, just and egalitarian societies to become a good example in contrast to the brutish dystopias of the West. But war is coming-the psychotics live for nothing else.
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on June 04, 2015 · at 9:37 am EST/EDT
    
    I often wonder if there is a psychopath anywhere who has NOT been recruited by the Real Evil Empire.
the master on June 01, 2015 · at 4:41 pm EST/EDT

Misha will get the war,
as he gets the Ukrainian troops trained in Romania by the US.
And they surely will get the lethal weapons,
why not – the ISIL gets them from the USA too
https://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/May-31/299962-iraq-lost-2300-humvees-in-mosul-pm.ashx
- Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 5:22 pm EST/EDT
  
  For me it seems to be just an opportunity to get Misha gunned down finally!
  There is so much rifles and grenades circulating in Ukraine.
  The militias spetsnaz or partisans odpf Odessa could spare some ammo for the Georgian. It is good to get him closer to the frontline, shit happens and a bullet could find its way.
Fernando Arauxo on June 01, 2015 · at 4:56 pm EST/EDT

So I guess a no fly zone will not be imposed in Ukraine to protect Russian peacekeepers?
Nor will the Russian airforce attack ISIL to save Assad?
USA is the evil empire.
Paul II on June 01, 2015 · at 4:57 pm EST/EDT

I thought the goal was to not want a fast regime change in Kiev. That way, life will gradually get worse and people won’t be able to blame Russia. If Russia had wanted a fast regime change, they would have cut off trade or used destabilization tactics. Or many other things.

As for your point about Russians being who Putin is supposed to serve, I thought a large percentage of those in Transnistria had Russian passports, and that their republic was formed from the USSR even before Moldova. In other words, it isn’t really the lack of a legal angle that is the problem. It is the same issue since the end of the Cold War: it is painful for Russia to defend her interests.
- Josh on June 03, 2015 · at 5:33 am EST/EDT
  
  Yeah – legally it would be similar to 2008. Logistically trickier for Russia though, but that’s what airborne divisions are for, right?…
alan on June 01, 2015 · at 5:01 pm EST/EDT

Just one quick question, why isn’t the “governor” of Odessa elected versus appointed (seems like it to me). Would that not be “un-democratic” in all sense of the word?
- The Saker on June 01, 2015 · at 5:27 pm EST/EDT
  
  No, they are appointed. And, frankly, for a “normal” country this is sometimes a better solution. For a while in Russia they were also appointed as this was the only way to deal with the local corrupt bureaucracies and mob. Recently they changed that back to elected again, but that is because the central authority’s power has been restored. I think that the issue is not “democracy” but the situation of a country. In a normal situation I am all for elected government, but when the state is falling apart you want to appoint them.
  Cheers,
  The Saker
  - Paul on June 01, 2015 · at 5:34 pm EST/EDT
    
    Well said, Saker. Sakashvilli’s appointment backs up what you have to say so well. Democracy is best only when conditions are ‘right’.
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on June 04, 2015 · at 9:57 am EST/EDT
      
      ‘Democracy’ can only exist on the local, small-scale level. In mass societies of millions, it always devolves into adversarialism, savage partisanship and social division, and, in capitalist economies, the rich simply buy the whole process.
  - alan on June 01, 2015 · at 6:55 pm EST/EDT
    
    thanks for the explanation Saker. I have never been a starry-eyed “democracy supporter”, as you could tell from my previous comments on various posts! :-)
    - Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 7:59 pm EST/EDT
      
      Yes but if they were elected then the govt in Kiev would have to respond to the wishes of the people in Odessa etc. Appointed governors are the tools of imperial rule. That was how the British Empire was run.
      - Poppadop on June 02, 2015 · at 2:38 am EST/EDT
        
        Appointed governors are the tools of imperial rule.
        
        Elected governors can do the same thing.
        http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/14/martin-omalley-gun-control_n_2473204.html
        
        “I have no hesitation to say if they can re-charter the bank with this hydra of corruption, they will rule the nation, and its charter will be perpetual, and its corrupting influence [will] destroy the liberty of our country. When I came into this administration… I had a majority of 75. Since then it is now believed it (the bank) has bought over by loans, discounts, etc. until… there were 2/3 for re-chartering it.”
        ~ President Andrew Jackson, 1833
ternam13 on June 01, 2015 · at 5:06 pm EST/EDT

Transnistria: Agreed: Things look bad for Transnistria but it was established with a weak blessing from the UN so maybe Russia could call for UN peacekeepers when the attack starts which will be presented as “aggression from Russian supported, self proclaimed Republic of Transniestra” And then have Amnesty International come in to make a report on how ” atrocities are happening equally on both sides”. Have you noticed how laborious these double-talking, precursor adjective phrases are becoming in the MSM?
Sarcasm aside, I think that the Hegemon is hoping that the people of Odessa rise up so they can eliminate them. So Saashkashvili has been installed with purpose. Kolomoiskii eliminated? Oh no, he has struck a deal with the devil and it wants him in reserve as back up for the Right Sector goons. So far there have been no serious fall outs among the thieves so to me that indicates that deals are being struck and palms are being crossed with gold–plenty of it. None of this bodes well for the Russian speaking people of Odessa. I sure hope some old partisan remembers the sewer warfare of WWII and how they all stayed alive down there—the counter technology is different these days, however.
Odessa has always been key.
Paul II on June 01, 2015 · at 5:18 pm EST/EDT

re: “The only option left for Russia is covert, behind-the-scenes, actions. The usual mix of threats, bribes, influence, economics and other asymmetrical measures to try to delay/soften the effects of the current blockade. This is not much, but that is all that Russian can do right now.”

I don’t understand the logic. This might slow the collapse from, say, two months to three or four months, but what difference would it make for Russia? Politically, maybe it would be nice to keep all those people out of Russia for longer as they would be an immediate anti-Putin force, but is there some bigger reason to have them hold on a bit longer? Perhaps more time to gain control over the media so they don’t talk about the loss of Transnistria?

My feeling is that Russia can’t allow the collapse of Transnistria. It would so demoralize everyone that Nororossiya would likely go, too. Saakhashvili would be appointed the governor of the Ukrainian part of Donetsk till they could get it all. Something the Kremlin needs to keep in mind is the importance of morale. The Soviets won WWII with a great fighting spirit and belief in their cause.
- Purple Library Guy on June 01, 2015 · at 11:23 pm EST/EDT
  
  The Nazis had plenty of that morale stuff too. I hate Nazism, but the bastards had really good troops. The Soviets won WWII with masses of strategic depth to fall back into, and ultimately superior logistics. And numbers.
  The Saker is saying that the logistical picture here is very bad. One thing it seems to me he neglects is precisely what he starts with: Odessa itself. Surely an Odessa, majority Russian (and even much of the non-Russian population more diverse rather than “Ukrainian” in any blood-and-soil kind of way), and about to be governed by Saakashvili, is likely to be a very unstable base from which to launch any invasions or logistical support of same. If I were in charge of Russia and considering covert operations, an “anti-colour-revolution” in Odessa would be high on my list of avenues to pursue.
  Significant troubles in Odessa could, in turn, fan the flames of dissatisfaction in the rest of Kiev-ruled Ukraine. Make sure the regime in Kiev is too busy reaping the whirlwind of its terrible governance to sow any more winds of aggressive war.
  - Cortes on June 02, 2015 · at 1:24 am EST/EDT
    
    Odessa being properly multicultural maybe has potential for involvement of appeals to governments all around and beyond the Black Sea to protect their kin. Perhaps the “western” MSM does not appreciate the many skeins woven into the Odessan DNA, but others will have a better view. As for Transnistria, perhaps a threat to seriously divert the flow of the river might draw international attention to the area?
  - Paul II on June 02, 2015 · at 2:52 am EST/EDT
    
    Yes, the Nazis had good morale, but some of their allies didn’t. In the case of Odessa, a large number of Western Ukrainians have been brought in to run things and oppress the natives. Those folks likely will have good morale. Besides, suppressing people is something the US Empire is good at. All those looking for an uprising should have supported it at the beginning, not once the leadership is in exile, dead, or in prison. For better or for worse, Russia took the approach of minimal involvement, and that is a consequence.
    - Mulga Mumblebrain on June 04, 2015 · at 10:06 am EST/EDT
      
      The one thing that the Real Evil Empire has great expertise in, and tremendous experience, is in establishing death-squads with which to terrorise restless populations into submission. Just ask the El Salvadorans, Guatemalans, the Hondurans, southern Vietnamese, Indonesians, Syrians, Iraqis, Lebanese ..and need I go on? Daash is perhaps their most monstrously cruel and evil creation yet, but it’s the sign of the times.
blue on June 01, 2015 · at 5:23 pm EST/EDT

There is one other approach that Russia can take.

If you are fighting a guy and he grabs your neck, knee in the gonads or stomp on his ankle.

There are many things Russia (and BRICS) could do that inflict great damage on the EU and empire, and it could be linked directly to TMR by Russia explaining what they are doing. Not defense but counterattack.
- Purple Library Guy on June 01, 2015 · at 11:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  That sounds unwise, and unlikely to be effective. It would just represent general escalation, which would ease the US ability to push the EU into increasing hostility to Russia, and ratchet us one step closer to global thermonuclear war.
  One thing to remember is we are not actually at the “fighting a guy” stage. We’re still at the “namecalling in class and sabotaging each other’s locker” stage, where an important question is how the other kids in class line up. Europe is still somewhat in question. Sure, they’re pro-US and anti-Russia, but will they join the US in trying to jump Russia behind the gym, or will they just shout insults from the ring of spectators?
  - blue on June 02, 2015 · at 5:14 am EST/EDT
    
    It doesn’t have to be with military, although it could be openly providing military resources of some sort to Donbas, even training in Russia or intelligence. That would put tremendous pressure on Kiev, and would not be beyond what NATO is already doing.
    
    I should think Putin and Russia can find all kinds of other ways, however, including finance and sanctions, or changing cooperation in various programs. Just the threat could be effective.
    
    The thing is, it’s like the joke:
    A woman goes into ta dentist’s office, sits in the chair, and the dentist starts putting instruments into her mouth. At this point the dentist feels her hand firmly grasping his testicles. He looks at her, shocked and she says “Now, doctor, we’re not going to hurt each other, are we?”.
    
    Penelope: I don’t know why Russia would be buying US T-bills — seems rather strange to me. Part of some deal, maybe? Internal pressure? Some obscure monetary move?
- Penelope on June 01, 2015 · at 11:31 pm EST/EDT
  
  Blue, yeah I sympathize w your idea that they ought to counter-attack (nonmilitarily), identifying the action as a reprisal. However, I note that Russia has once again resumed buying treasuries, after previously having reduced her store of them.
  - Ann on June 02, 2015 · at 4:39 am EST/EDT
    
    Not US treasuries surely ? OMG…
Peter J. Antonsen on June 01, 2015 · at 5:28 pm EST/EDT

Mr. Saker,

Thanks: once again, for telling it like it is.

It is a cold cruel world out there, and it is unworthy to insist that Russian leadership and their people, (and only they), save the planet: again and again. Our pronoun use must switch from “they” to “we.” If “we” did more, the Russians would have more options.

“We the People” must decide what we can do to help the peoples of the world survive to see the morning, happy, free, and prosperous. What can we do? To be or not to be, that is the question. It is a long time since I read Shakespeare.

Within the 320-million population of the United States, there has yet to be a sizeable political rally in support of the Russian people of Eastern Europe. Not one. Within a couple of small demonstrations, such as one in New York City last week, there have been brief mentions of the war in the Ukraine; but there has been no political concentration on the most important and dangerous imperialist aggression since that against Vietnam.

Imperialist Zionists ‘progressive-socialists’ Senators Warren, and Sanders, both pretend to campaign for the Presidency, and omit any mention of American Foreign Policy. For them, the Coup d’etat in Dallas never happened; there are no Palestinians, and the Russians are not worthy of mention. The so-called ‘Left’ within the United States (and Europe) exists to give cover to their imperialist power structure – through their pretense at opposition, their subsequent coopting of the opposition, and their subsequent blocking of all channels for the formation of a historically legitimite and effective opposition.

They are part of the show, as is Hollywood Obomber and Hilary Clinton. It is all practised and rehearsed. It is not our fault we are where we are. We never had a chance.

The opposition within the US is atomized, coopted, or in exile. The Oligarchs are all powerful, and their system of governance is unchallenged; they are omnipotent.

When, where, and how, do we take our stand? The people of Transnistria become one more people – under the gun. The imperialist offensive is rapidly spreading throughout the planet. The wars and militarism, and military budgets are accelerating. The lineups are becoming clearer. Southeast Europe is burning.

We hobbits must not lose all hope. We “must return the Ring (of imperialist Oligarch power) to the fiery Chasm from whence it was made” (or something like that). Opposing the unconstitutional tyrannical Oligarch political structure within the United States would be a start.

It is the bottom of the 9th inning, and our Brooklyn Dodgers are trailing the imperialist Yankees, 10-0; There are 2 outs; they have Whitey Ford pitching, and our Sandy Koufax is coming to bat.

Ourselves alone – or many together.

For the Democratic Republics! Here and There!

IMAGINE

*Mr. Saker; let us have a section on your website for discussing solutions – just solutions.
- Penelope on June 01, 2015 · at 11:56 pm EST/EDT
  
  Peter J. Antonsen, I think the first step here in the US is to develop a platform– an alternative vision. People know they don’t want the govt they have, but no one has really enunciated an alternative program to get behind. You can’t unite behind a bunch of negatives; people need hope.
  
  Regards.
  - Poppadop on June 02, 2015 · at 3:19 am EST/EDT
    
    “I wish it were possible to obtain a single amendment to our Constitution. I would be willing to depend on that alone for the reduction of the administration of our government to the genuine principles of its Constitution; I mean an additional article, taking from the federal government the power of borrowing.”
    ~ President Thomas Jefferson, 1798; only 10 years after the Constitution was ratified
    
    “… when we have restored the money of the Constitution, all other necessary reforms will be possible, and that until that is done there is no reform that can be accomplished.”
    ~ Senator William Jennings Bryan, 1896
    
    “I have never yet had anyone who could, through the use of logic and reason, justify the Federal Government borrowing the use of its own money… The Constitution of the United States does not give the banks the power to create money. The Constitution says that Congress shall have the power to create money, but now, under our system, we will sell bonds to commercial banks and obtain credit from those banks. I believe the time will come when people will demand that this be changed. I believe the time will come in this country when they will actually blame you and me and everyone else connected with this Congress for sitting idly by and permitting such an idiotic system to continue. I make that statement after years of study.”
    ~ Congressman Wright Patman, 1941
    
    Ending the plutocrats’ debt-money system has been enunciated for centuries. You just don’t hear about it because those same plutocrats also have greater control over politicians and the media. The platform has already been developed; the problem is getting more people to fight for it rather than the corrupt version. Please note that “fight” is probably not a metaphor…
    - Penelope on June 04, 2015 · at 2:51 pm EST/EDT
      
      Poppadop,
      I agree that US monetary system needs to be entirely revamoped so that our govt doesn’t pay private bankers to issue its own currency. Incredible to believe that such a system has been allowed to exist, but every President who tried to change it was assassinated.
      
      But it’s also necessary to revamp the international controls on money creation which are also under the control of the private bankers. The answer is Modern Monetary Theory.
      
      Also, because things have gone on as long as they have, probably some serious redistribution of wealth is in order.
      
      Thanks for your comment. It’s heartening to know that there are people who understand the source of the villainy which controls our govt & media.
      - Poppadop on June 04, 2015 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT
        
        But it’s also necessary to revamp the international controls on money creation which are also under the control of the private bankers. The answer is Modern Monetary Theory.
        
        Yes and yes. Without taking back the international monetary system, the banksters will just apply military, economic, political, and cultural pressure on the people that broke away using those still plugged into the Matrix. The Redcoats, the Allies, NATO: They always find people to fight for the bank.
        
        When the US broke away in 1776, we were treated to at least two racket wars, one proxy war, two private central banks, and three assassinated presidents. Finally in 1913, we went from fighting the Redcoats to being the Redcoats. The banksters’ corruption needs to be rooted out globally, and before anyone calls that “fascism” or “imperialism…”
        
        “Virtue is the mistress of all things. Virtue is the master of all things. Therefore a nation that should never do wrong must necessarily govern the world.”
        ~ President John Adams, 1796
        
        Also, because things have gone on as long as they have, probably some serious redistribution of wealth is in order.
        
        True, but to be fair, Penny, “bankster,” “banker gangster” is not an exaggeration. Assuming the bank loses, many of these guys are going to be arrested or dead, meaning their assets should be redistributed anyway.
        
        “The Federal Reserve [Banks] are one of the most corrupt institutions, the world has ever seen. There is not a man, within the sound of my voice, who does not know that this Nation is run by the International Bankers.”
        ~ Banker and Congressman Louis T. McFadden, 1933; died three years later
  - Ann on June 02, 2015 · at 4:41 am EST/EDT
    
    Ron Paul was available and no one voted for him. I wish he’d run again….
  - Peter J. Antonsen on June 02, 2015 · at 12:36 pm EST/EDT
    
    Penelope,
    
    I have repeatedly broached a series of “alternative vision”/s on this forum/website & through my group of companions (Anarchist Collective). Where do you get off… implying that I am trying to “unite behind a bunch of negatives”? At least check before you come to conclusions. One must not AssumE.
    
    I have posted our group’s IMAGINE (2 page) flier on this website that is ALLLL programatic suggestions for resistance to the Oligarchs.
    
    Having worked on electoral alternative efforts for decades, from my Democratic Party/gang candidacy for the PA State House in 2000 (I won the contested primary), and did respectably against the Republican in November (60-40) while spending $2,000 to his $40,000+ the total support he received from the Media, I have worked to fashion solutions to our nation and world tragedies, with a particular emphasis of suggesting actions that the peeople are capable of doing.
    
    I have never suggested that the people stop watching the Kardashian’s TV series, or that Police stop eating donuts. Negative, I am not. I advocate strategies that people, if they wish to, can actually attempt. These strategies are based on the best of American political traditions, and flow from my long experience as a History Professor.
    
    Have stood on the same platform as Al Gore (no one’s perfect). Supported other Democrat candidates, as well as Ralph Nader and Ron Paul.
    
    In short, we advocate Alternate Elections through which we might build a new revolutionary government structure beside the old. The classic term is to establish a DUAL POWER situation, where the people’s (that’s us) shadow government gradually (or quickly) replaces the old. The electoral referendum in Novorossiya and the Crimea did just that. The people of these areas established a Dual Power situation in which they were able to replace the proto-fascist American puppet government in Kiev, with their own governments.
    
    Furthermore, the Dual Power effort is based in Law and creats a Constitutional foundation for a free people. The Founders within 1776 America did much the same. Their Committees of Correspondence set up Alternate Government structures in the 13 colonies, that grew, by way of armed resistance of the mobilized citizens, into the Articles of the Confederation and first independent government of the United States.
    
    I have been repeatedly suggesting this POSITIVE and PROGRAMATIC solution for an American Revolution, founded in Liberty and Constitutionalism to for the last decade. I, and a few friends have distributed the IMAGINE flier throughout the East Coast. Unfortunately, the New York Times, Prison Planet, Huffington Post, and other areas of the controlled media have not been as kind (and courageous) as the Saker in allowing us to have our say.
    
    We are not negative, we are positive. We have hope, and attempt to pump up others within the Belly of the Beast to Chin Up and Resist.
    
    Yours,
    
    For the Democratic Republics! Here and There!
    
    IMAGINE
    - Penelope on June 04, 2015 · at 3:06 am EST/EDT
      
      Peter, I am not in the least implying that you have only a list of negatives. Altho I can see how you might have read my comment that way. I only meant that most people, the citizenry, can see many things that they are against, but that they need something positive to get behind before they are likely to unite & start pushing. HONEST, that’s all I meant.
      
      Will come back & study your post later: dinnertime.
      
      Regards
      - Penelope on June 04, 2015 · at 3:30 pm EST/EDT
        
        Peter, I’m glad you misunderstood me because it gave us all a chance to get to know you better and to avail ourselves of whatever we can find on the web regarding IMAGINE, a 2pp newsletter. Also, Dual Power and the Anarchist Collective.
        
        I had thought your closure of each post w “IMAGINE” was merely an encouragement to us. I hadn’t the slightest idea that it referred to a newsletter.
        
        Thank you for your service to our country (and I don’t mean by going overseas to kill other people’s patriots.)
        
        Regards
  - Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 2:57 pm EST/EDT
    
    You are right there.And if has to begin at the grass-roots level.And in local areas first.Only once there is a local,then state base,can it go national.With any chance to succeed.I find it ridiculous when I hear people talk about, this one,or that one,running for President and will change things.Even if they (by a miracle) won the Presidency.Without any support in Congress they would have no power to change anything.And shortly would be “impeached” or forced to resign by threats of a coup.Only with a local,state,and national movement behind them can change happen.Which is why the political and media classes are controlled or bribed so thoroughly by the 1%.To prevent just that happening.
Red Ryder on June 01, 2015 · at 5:28 pm EST/EDT

Hostilities against Transnistria change the dynamics of the entire setting. And a blockade is the first step of hostilities.

I would be surprised that the warning was not already sent to Kiev and NATO. (though Russians never warn). So silence from Moscow is the warning.

Russian peace-keepers die and the mood in Russia will change. Those aren’t volunteer soldiers. Those are regular troops. Peacekeepers, no less. If they are hurt, everything changes.

As for Odessa, your description of it as a US port clearly establishes it as unacceptable for Russia to continue to allow.

I suspect that there are hundreds of special operators from Russia in place to decapitate Kiev’s stooges in Odessa and to incapacitate Ukie defenses. A combination of polite green men and the voentorg will be used.

As for the land bridge all the way, it is inevitable and the same or similar techniques will be used.
Mariupol will fall to DNR at some point.

Russia really has no choice.

Grabbing a criminal like the tie-eater from Georgia, removing the Ukie threat and uniting the entire south of Ukraine with Crimea and Donbass is not probable. It is being made by necessity. What is indicated without being openly stated by the Intel community chiefs of Russia is, it will happen when it needs to happen.

Thus, plans exist. Putin will act when he must act.

He would have never taken Crimea if he did not have to take Crimea. They had a plan and it worked.

They have a plan for Mariupol, Odessa and Transnistria. And Kiev, too.

That is what all the training of the military is about. But the strike forces that do the job are not seen. Just like the moment before Crimea.

The whole truth of the situation we call Ukraine is that Russia cannot live with a Russophobic neighbor willing to wage war incessantly against Russian people. Ukraine, at some point, will have to cease to exist as a sovereign nation.

Ukraine is caught inside a python. The more trouble it stirs, the tighter the constriction. Soon, all oxygen will be out of its system.
- Sokenekos on June 01, 2015 · at 10:52 pm EST/EDT
  
  A very good comment, & an inspiring one. thanks a lot for your insight!
- Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 1:05 am EST/EDT
  
  Your clear vision and ablility to communicate it is awesome ! I agree with everything you state and only wish to add my 2 cents. Considering a collapse of Ukraine/Kiev is going to happen sooner or later it seemed to me the big question was who will end up having to foot the cost of rebuilding along with the care needed to assist people back up from this terrible fall. I know neither EU or USA has the amounts $ needed nor do they wish to , seemed like that was the goal all along , destroy the nation an force the cost on to Russia of restoration , Russia holding back from direct involvement {ending the Kiev actors} leaves the mounting costs on US/EU as well as the backlash against them for planning an supporting this Tragedy. As witnessed may 12 in a grand Moscow parade the world sees clearly too
- Ann on June 02, 2015 · at 4:46 am EST/EDT
  
  Red Ryder’s comment does ‘sound’ good…but so far it hasn’t been Putin’s behavior to interfere. I don’t even think Crimea was ‘interfering’. It was Russia’s only port. Now, these troubles are different. They’re other states’ troubles. Putin will watch and protest…like Saker says….
AngryLittleMan on June 01, 2015 · at 5:30 pm EST/EDT

Putin was not elected to save the world, …… or the TMR

So what are the Russian Peacekeepers doing in TMR ?
There are Russian too.
Russia is an idea as well, and those people, children carry it inside !
I am on Putin side, but his softness sometimes drives me crazy, the other day 9yr old girl died,
how many of children has to die before Putin start to save lives.
There has to be a war anyway because US policy will not change unless they get their ass kicked.
- Poppadop on June 02, 2015 · at 6:07 am EST/EDT
  
  how many of children has to die before Putin start to save lives.
  
  “The democratic states should not be so vain as to think this state of affairs will last forever.”
  ~ Adolf Hitler in response to Poland’s killing of ethnic Germans, 1939
  
  In the grand scheme of things,Poland’s role has not changed that much. By switching to overt troop involvement now, Putin runs into the same problem Hitler did: Needing to fight a lot of people too dumb or desperate to know they’re really fighting for the Banking Empire.
  
  You’re right, ALM. The banksters need a bigger war, and they will do whatever it takes to get it. However, Russia shouldn’t go at this like Germany did and aggro more people than necessary. Stalling the war weakens people’s obedience to the banksters, and it allows Russia to strengthen the bank’s opposition.
mikhas on June 01, 2015 · at 5:47 pm EST/EDT

We have just started to discuss this now, Russia on the other hand have known this possibility for a very long time and should also be prepared with different plans for all scenarios, like they were in Crimea and Georgia.

I don´t think Russians will be indifferent having the US via the Georgian mad dog kill Russian peacekeepers and Russia doing nothing for the sake of keeping NATO calm.

Russia can, if UkroNazia start the shooting, break the land locked Transdnistria by the sea (and air) and establish a temporary corridor for “humanitarian relief” (and military of course) for as long as necessary, as long as it´s obvious who the aggressor is.

Strange Obongo´s white masters didn´t think of this before
- Sharon on June 01, 2015 · at 9:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  The “UkroNazias” don’t have to start shooting. They plan on just starving the people of Transdnistria. Purpose of the blockades.
metamars on June 01, 2015 · at 5:56 pm EST/EDT

Please discuss the following means of ending the Unkronazi regime from both the viewpoint of a) strategy b) international law

1) Long range missiles are supplied (openly) to Novorossia, with the expectation that they will be used for decapitation strikes as well as hitting a very modest amount of Ukrainian infrastructure (or or two power plants, one or two water purification plants). The point of the latter would be to demonstrate the capability of doing to western Ukraine what has been done to much of eastern Urkraine, but the willingness to hope that more constructive forces prevail in the west. The point of decapitation strikes is obvious, I should think.

2) Russia supplies Syria with the means to blow up Saudi Arabia’s port facilities. (Missiles, plus platform – either subs or bombers.) Syria then reads Saudi the riot act – either cut off the ISIL terrorists, or else lose your ability to to fund them with fresh oil profits.

Of course, shutting off Saudi Arabia will cause a spike in oil prices that also damages the US and European economy. (Not to mention the rest of the oil-consuming nations.) The US will probably shake off much of the damage (in part because we have lots of shale oil), but Europe would not be so fortunate. The result might be to drive Europe more into the US camp; or it might be the opposite, as (hopefully) more people will awaken to the fact that Russia is responding to US (and Saudi) meddling, with little resistance from Europe (hence, they share in the blame).

The US-lackey, European governments will doubtless be incapable of understanding Syria protecting itself from Saudi funders of the destruction of their country, but I doubt the European public will have similar problems of comprehension.
Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 6:50 pm EST/EDT

Dear Saker, please to get too offended, but what kind of grass do you smoke sometimes and how long last the effects ? Maybe you can share this with some other readers.
Back to some serious facts, before instigating too many clueless people: check first how many Russians are in your dear but in danger, Transnistria. You will find they are only about 28% (the ones sent as colonists and rulers for the real Moldova from across the river). But they were settled strategically mostly on the left side of the river. Why did they break up in 1991-1992 ? Because they got a stronghold on a big chunk of the Moldavian heavy industry at the time. With that, they were able to blackmail and extort money from the rest of Moldova. But today, most of it is irrelevant and a pile of old rusting metal.
Another fact: about 30% of population declared being of Ukrainian nationality while another 32% is of Moldavian nationality. Which side do you think they will chose after all, if a war will start ?
For the Moldavian population, Ukrainians or Russians are the same (the more they fight each other, the better is for nearby nations). We see them as cousins with each other. During soviet times of occupation, some of the fiercest NKVD and KGB agents were Ukrainians.
When Russia will take that region by force, most of the Moldavians will cross the river in Moldova while Ukrainians will go across the border and the population left there will be about 150.000. Hopefully some of the pumped-up readers of this blog (like Ann and Uncle Bob) will go there to increase the population and work in whatever jobs are left.
- Kat Kan on June 01, 2015 · at 10:15 pm EST/EDT
  
  March last year they asked to join the Russian Federation.
  
  http://vestnikkavkaza.net/news/politics/52743.html
  http://tass.ru/en/world/724121
  
  The area is extremely mixed. You did not mention Russians who are 30 to 41% depending on which town you look at. The same applies to your figures for Ukrainians and Moldovians. Also you must always give dates, as ethnicity claims vary from census to census, depending on political expediency and whether they fill the form or have to answer face to face. Same applies to language spoken etc.
  
  Then you cannot assume all X will run one way and all Y the other. Most won’t run at all. Because they LIVE THERE. Same as in Donbass. There are heaps of ethnic Ukrainians fighting on the NAF side because they are defending their HOMES.
  
  ======================
  Moldovan please be polite. Don’t go accusing people of being ignorant or having no facts etc when you yourself are just Googling things (and leaving some out). Just bring the new information to the table then read what others bring in. This blog is a university, not a bar-room brawl.
  ======================
  - Mike on June 02, 2015 · at 3:20 am EST/EDT
    
    TASS article you quote mentions 2006 referendum–that was actually a referendum number 6, all one way or another supporting independence from Moldova and/or union with Russia
    http://www.olvia.idknet.com/ol63-09-06.htm
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistrian_independence_referendum,_2006
    
    The first referendum was in 1990, so before the collapse of the USSR. The violence started around that time as well, and continued till summer of 1992. Russia just emerged and was too weak to be pulling strings to cause it. That was well before the Putin era.
- Alieu on June 02, 2015 · at 12:07 am EST/EDT
  
  Moldavian, you should not feel too happy about seeing Ukrainians and Russian “cousins” fighting each other. Don’t forget that if the Zionazis succeed in stirring up a war in Transnistria, it will be the Moldovans who will do the fighting and dying – not them. They see you as cousins who are stupid enough to spend all your time fighting each other rather than deal with the common enemy that are ruining and destroying both your countries. If I was Moldovan, I’d be more concerned with fixing the problems in the rest of the country before you worry about reconquering Transnistria. Moldova was, until being overtaken by Ukraine this year, the poorest country in Europe.
  
  Recently, an Israeli “businessman”, Ilan Shor, stole $1 billion from Moldovan banks – equal to 1/8th of Moldova’s GDP. But no, keep working with Zionists like Victoria Nuland and join the EU, they’ll help you against those pesky Russians who are the real cause of all Moldova’s problems. Sure, your country will no longer exist as an independent state and your economy will be completely pillaged by Zionist oligarchs, hundreds if not thousands of your people will be killed, but at least you will have helped them to bring the benefits of “freedom and democracy” to Transnistria as well. Maybe then they too will be lucky enough to have 1/8th of their GDP stolen by an Israeli oligarch.
  
  The stupidity of anti-Russian Eastern European “nationalists” never ceases to amaze me. I must say I never understood why a “nationalist” would want his country to give up its independence and join a multi-national federal union whose explicit purpose is to destroy the different nationalities of Europe. But hey, at least the EU hates Russia, that’s the only thing that matters. Moldovan and Ukrainian “nationalists” are one and the same. Their only identity comes from hatred of Russia, with no actual pride in their own countries independence. This is why they support joining the EU, even though it goes against every principle of nationalism. They don’t want true independence, they just want to be slaves to “the West” instead of slaves to “the East”. Pathetic.
  - Nussiminen on June 02, 2015 · at 6:38 am EST/EDT
    
    Excellent reply — thank you, Alieu.
    
    Couldn’t agree more on these die-hard, retarded bootlickers of the Zionazis, proudly posing as “nationalists”. Confirms to the hilt the very manifest difference I’ve been addressing before between Eastern Europe and the whole of West with regard to the Fascist rabble itself.
    
    In the West, the average Fascist is fuelled by a sense of betrayal by what used to be his/her infallible, adored elite, whose neoliberal/neoconservative cult of total greed, nihilism, and self-worship has subjected the entire Western fabric of society to accelerating decay. A Fascist in the West, consequently, is angry at the elites, albeit out of sheer egoism and bigotry. The proud habit of throwing tantrums about immigrants and multiculture is just a craven, utterly futile plea to the elites for “Imperialism without Immigrants and Refugees”.
    
    In Eastern Europe, the Fascists are fuelled by a sense of having lost History’s lottery. In their imagination, the West would have granted them Instant Heaven, but those bloody Russians forced the exact opposite on them. They are wilfully blind to the demise of the West (and even more to the magnanimity of the USSR), preferring to be proud bootlickers and slaves to it. Needless to say, they’re getting exactly all the squalor, deceit, and coercion they’ve been asking for.
    
    Can’t really blame Western imperialism for taking advantage of its most ardent, true believers. Serves them right many times over.
    - Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 1:23 pm EST/EDT
      
      Both you guys from above are the ones filled with hate. Read my post carefully again before accusing me of all the intentions that YOU THINK, I have. YOU are the ones that force people like me to not chose your side anymore. With replies like that filled with accusations and your way of stating facts without any base of proof. I know more about the zionist than you can imagine. Before the creation of Israel, one option on the table was to make secretly exactly this region into their heaven.
  - Mulga Mumblebrain on June 04, 2015 · at 10:31 am EST/EDT
    
    The problem with fascists is that their psychopathy is rooted in hatred of the other. They live in antagonism, towards other ‘races’, religions, genders, sexual orientations, ideologies, football supporters etc. It’s the hatred that counts. They inevitably end up turning on each other, as well. Simple-minded fools like this are easy pickings for those trained over millennia in the techniques of ‘divide and rule’ and exploitation. The greatest advantage in such machinations is the absence of feelings of empathy and compassion towards your victims. For this xenophobic misanthropy to be consolidated and perpetuated in a ‘religion’ in which one is indoctrinated, day after day, makes it not ‘second nature’, but the adherents’ true inner essence. Escape from this systematised opposition to the rest of humanity is very difficult, because it means leaving behind family, friends and social networks, although the breach is not always final and total. Scientology also operates along these lines, but has scarcely any experience of centuries of practise and the perfection of group controls and exploitation of outsiders. However Hubbard could see the possibilities of founding a ersatz, supremacist, highly exploitative, ‘religion’, for himself at least.
    - Anonymous on June 04, 2015 · at 4:51 pm EST/EDT
      
      Mulga Mumblebrain,
      
      According to Joaquin Flores in a Red Ice Radio interview, Scientology is a US Navy operation.
- Stavros H on June 02, 2015 · at 11:02 am EST/EDT
  
  The “ideology” of anti-Russian eastern Europeans in a nutshell:
  
  a) Communism is worse than Fascism/Stalin was more evil than Hitler.
  
  b) Russia = Communism. Complete inability to distinguish between the two at all.
  
  c) Therefore, Russia = Pure Evil
  
  d) If not for Russian/Communist domination, we would be just like Germany/Swtzerland/Scandinavia.
  
  e) Being white slaves for the glorious West is the best we can do at the moment, and spiting Russia at every turn is our road to becoming like the fabled Germanys/Switzerlands/Scandinavias.
  
  In other words, anti-Russian eastern Europeans have been experiencing “Peak Retardation” for decades now.
  - Intrigat on June 02, 2015 · at 7:18 pm EST/EDT
    
    a) Fascism lasted for about 5 years. Communism, for 50 years. You do the maths. With an open mind, if not a bit of empathy.
    
    b) Russia = imperialism. That’s the overall impression, sorry.
    
    c) Therefore = Russia is the bear you’d very much prefer to admire from a safe distance.
    
    d) If not for Russian\Communist domination….what would have happened then? We will never find out.
    
    e) Russia scarred us deeply. The West..not yet.
    
    How about that?
- Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 3:26 pm EST/EDT
  
  Moldavian:
  
  how many Russians are in your dear but in danger, Transnistria … the ones sent as colonists
  
  The implication being there were few Russians there before 1944 and the ones who came later were evil communist colonists?
  
  First, all of Transnistria except Bender was part of the Soviet Union from 1922 to 1944, and prior to that part of the Russian Empire from the time of the conquest of Odessa from the Turks in the 1700’s. It was never at any time part of the Kingdom of Romania or the Principality of Moldavia or Roman Dacia.
  
  The ethnic breakdown of the Moldavian ASSR (most of modern Transnistria) in the 1926 Soviet census can be found here in a graphic:
  
  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c2/Harta_etnica_rassm.jpg
  
  For Moldova and Transnistria in the 2004 census:
  
  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f1/Harta_etnica_a_Republicii_Moldova_-_2004.jpg
  
  As everyone can readily see, the ethnic breakdown of major cities like Tiraspol, Rabnita, Grigoriopol, and minor villages in 1926 is not particularly different than in 2004 – Russian, Ukrainians, and Jews were in the majority, not Romanians. Further, the countryside around those cities was primarily non-Romanian in both periods, with the main difference being the relocation and later deportation of the Germans and the death of many Jews (at the hands of the Romanian regime of Ion Antonescu during WWII), while Romanians during both periods inhabited the villages along the right bank Dnister.
  
  Second, Moldova proper (formerly Bessarabia), was also part of the Russian Empire from the 1700’s. It was also never part of Roman Dacia. There have always been Slavs throughout the region from before the time of the Russian conquest. The Slavs there are also not communist colonists as there were already hundreds of thousands of Slavs shown in the Russian Empire Census of 1897 and in the Romanian Census of 1930. Individual parts of the 1930 Romanian Census can be seen graphically here by each town and village with detailed ethnic breakdowns:
  
  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/14/Bendery_%28ethnic%29.JPG
  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/03/Kiszinyew_%28ethnic%29.JPG
  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Soroki.JPG
  http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6d/Mogilew_%28ethnic%29.JPG
  
  Bender is shown with an overwhelming Slav-Jew majority in 1930. Chisinau was actually more non-Romanian in 1930 prior to the extermination and migration of its Jewish population. Balti was already half non-Romanian. Edinet, Briceni, Riscani were also already half non-Romanian.
  
  In 1897, the Russian Empire Census counted 550,000 Slavs in Bessarabia, 100,000 Bulgars, and 230,000 Jews, and 60,000 Gauguz Turks against 920,000 Romanians.
  
  In 1930, there were 665,000 Slavs, 160,000 Bulgars, 100,000 Gauguz Turks, 205,000 Jews, and 1.6 million Romanians.
  
  Today in Moldova proper without Transitria, in Bender, and in Budjak, the numbers are 920,000 Slavs (200,000 fewer than in 1989), 200,000 Bulgars, 175,000 Gauguz Turks, and 2.75 million Romanians. Jews are no longer counted separately and are minimal in number due to Nazi atrocities and migration to Israel.
  
  So in a little over 100 years, the Romanian population tripled in this region taking its share of the population from less than 50% in 1897 to 56% in 1930 to over 70% today, but the Slav and Bulgar population only doubled. It would seem very likely that the primary colonists from 1897 to 2004 were Romanians, not Russians and Ukrainians. Its likely the Romanian colonists came into Moldova from Ukraine right of the Dnister and Romania proper.
  
  As to who is really a colonist, it might also be asked why, when the Romanians emerged in history as a nation in the 1300’s, they used Old Slavonic liturgy at worship (they still do) instead of Romanian, and the Cyrillic script instead of Latin (they still do in Moldova) if Slavs are really the later colonists only from communist times? It seems much more likely from such history that pastoral, illiterate and barely Christian Romanian shepherds of AD 1200-1300 spread east from southern Transylvania and the Trans-Danube region in Serbia near the Iron Gate to inhabit amongst the literate and Christianized Rus Slavs in the lightly populated plain of Moldavia and Bessarabaia and amonst the Bulgars in Dobrudja and Budjak, and that they adopted letters and religion and a goodly chunk of their language from the already settled Slavs as they contacted them while spreading east. While Romanian has a high number of Slavic loanwords and Slavic morphology, the same can’t be said in reverse of Ukrainian.
  - Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 3:42 pm EST/EDT
    
    I personally don’t want to hear about Transnistria as part of Moldavia. I never said I want that region. But it was annexed to Bessarabia as a poisoned compensation for losing the southern province of Budjeak. And a lot of the tax money were deliberately funneled in that region to create a big dependence of the rest of Moldavian economy. That’s the main motivation of the conflict from 1991-1992.
  - Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 3:50 pm EST/EDT
    
    Can you explain a little bit about the local population before the expansion of tsarist empire ???
    Half of Moldavia was annexed against international norms in 1812 by Russia. Why do you deliberately ignore that fact ? Before Russians arrived there, the neighbors were Tatars, Lithuanians and Poles.
    Showing falsified numbers from 1897 falsified by the bolsheviks it’s as hypocritical as the western lies that you keep mentioning here. You are no better than the evil empire from west. You are just another empire from east that wants to eradicate nations and create “homus sovieticus” again.
    We can fight forever bringing arguments left and right, but the language spoken there is Romanian. No matter how many falsification you bring, that is the reality even after 200 years of forced Russification, mass-killings and deportations in Siberia.
    - Andrew on June 02, 2015 · at 5:28 pm EST/EDT
      
      Moldavian:
      
      Sorry, the long “Anonymous” post above should have been labeled from Andrew (me).
      
      the local population before the expansion of tsarist empire ???
      
      The local population from the before the Tsarist expansion was 1/3 Rusyn, probably around 10% Jewish, and the remainder Romanian. See for example here.
      
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavic_influence_on_Romanian
      
      Half of Moldavia was annexed against international norms in 1812 by Russia.
      
      The Treaty of Bucharest ceding Bessarabia to Russia was signed by both parties to the Russo-Turkish war. What “International Norms” do you think were violated? The violation of international norms occurred in 1918 when Romania occupied Bessarabia and attempted to annex it without an agreed upon treaty. This is why the United States did not recognize it as part of Romania and did not object to Stalin reoccupying it in 1940, unlike, for example, the Baltic States.
      
      Before Russians arrived there, the neighbors were Tatars, Lithuanians and Poles.
      
      Poles and Lithuanians never lived anywhere near Bessarabia (you aren’t confusing their Kingdoms with their settlement areas are you?), while Rusyns and Russians have been there from time immemorial seeing as their ancestral homeland surrounded the Pirpyat marshes in all directions. Shouldn’t you really be discussing who lived there before Romanians arrived, seeing as Bessarabia was never part of Roman Dacia, never had any Roman roads along either the Dniestr or Prut Rivers, and was north of the Roman Limes along the Danube? The nearest Roman features are settlements near Galati and a road along the Siret River.
      
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Roman_Byzantine_Gothic_Walls_Romania_Plain.svg
      
      Showing falsified numbers from 1897 falsified by the bolsheviks
      
      Similar numbers are found in the pre-1897 censuses, such as that of 1843. Do you have a neutral source concerning demographics prior to 1900?
      
      You are no better than the evil empire from west. You are just another empire from east that wants to eradicate nations and create “homus sovieticus” again.
      
      ??? I’m a disinterested American concerned about fairness and accomodation of minorities.
      
      the language spoken there is Romanian.
      
      I don’t think anyone is disputing that the Romanian part of the population speaks Romanian, and writes it in the traditional way with the Cyrillic script, unlike the Latinized people of Romania. You seem to be denying the legitimacy of the non-Romanian part of the population from living where it has always lived.
      
      200 years of forced Russification, mass-killings and deportations in Siberia
      
      Siberia and Kazakhstan were full of millions of Ukrainians, Poles, Balts and Germans descended from Stalin era deportees. Why are the thousands of deported Romanians you discuss invisible there?
      - Intrigat on June 02, 2015 · at 7:40 pm EST/EDT
        
        They are not invisible. They’re still in Kazakhstan.
        By the way, the Russo-Turkish negotiations in 1812 have violated the many treaties concluded between the Principality of Moldavia and the Ottoman Empire. According to these treaties, except for yearly payments and obligation to render military help upon request, Moldavia was otherwise a free land. So the Turks gave away to Russians territories that did not belong to them. As for Romania, annexing Bessarabia in 1918, any other Entente power recognized the union as such. Except for the US of course, our best friends and allies.
        
        Andrew on June 04, 2015 · at 4:48 pm EST/EDT
        
        Intrigat:
        
        30,000 people from Bessarabia were deported pre-war as being anti-Communist elements of the population and another 35,000 after the war as guilty of collaboration with the enemy – this is from all ethnic groups there. Less than 2% of the population in total. Compare to the total 100% deportation of Germans from Ukraine, Bessarabia, and Saratov or of the Crimean Tatars from Crimea. If there had been some sort of vast anti-Moldovan ethnic animus, the Soviets had a strange way of showing it by leaving most Moldovans alone and giving them their own federal State and enlarging and enriching their territory by joining it to Transnistria.
        
        The assertions that the 1812 Treaty was “illegal” are quite bizarre. Is this some modern claim of the Romanian or post-Soviet Moldovan governments? There is nothing in the historic literature on international law and treaties pre-1918 staking out this position, and in the aftermath of the Crimean War in 1855, Russia was clearly recognized by the belligernets as holding valid sovereignty over Bessarabia – no one demanded a retrocession.
        
        Moldavian on June 04, 2015 · at 11:45 pm EST/EDT
        
        Andrew, did you look at the links provided by me ? And by the way, Moderator, I noticed you didn’t allow 2-3 of my posts with some more meaningful links.
        Andrew, do you think the population of eastern Moldavia was happy to change one oppressor with another in 1812 ? I’ll try to find some links with historical data showing how many Moldavians chose to run in the western Moldavia in order to avoid being under the new “orthodox liberators”. At least the Turks didn’t force Moldavians to change their language and way of living.
        Do you think that in those times of big Empires, the western Moldavia had any chance to claim back from mighty Russia the stolen lands ?
        Give me some more time and I’ll find some documents in english showing how the Russian orthodox brothers lied the Moldavians about liberating them from under Turks, only to discover later they wanted to expand their own Empire and russify local population by force.
        The war of Crimea started later only mostly because Russia had in plan the full annexation of Moldavia and Wallachia, something that France and England decided to stop at any cost.
        
        Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 05, 2015 · at 12:38 am EST/EDT
        
        Moldavian, it’s good to see you talking with people now. Good also to explain your meaning, just put links for backup, as few will read 4 or 5 links just to discover what you’re saying. On this basis I’ll let them all through, ok?
        
        Intrigat on June 05, 2015 · at 3:51 pm EST/EDT
        
        Actually, no. In the aftermath of the Crimean war, Russia was forced to give back to the Principality of Moldavia the southern part of Budjak. The rest of the newly created province of Bessarabia was of no interest to the European Western powers who wanted only to keep Russia away from the Danube’s mouths and from the lower Danube. That’s why Western Moldavia and Wallachia have escaped Russian annexation and Bessarabia didn’t. Western Moldavia commanded the Danube’s mouths and Wallachia was bordered on all its length by the lower Danube. You wonder why no Western country disputed Russia’s annexation of Eastern Moldova. Who should have done it? France? Napoleon was negotiating with tsar Alexander and he was ready to give Moldavia and Wallachia both to Russia in exchange for control over Prussia and recognition of his brothers as rulers in Spain and Netherlands. Austria? Austria had already stolen Bukovina in 1775 and western Wallachia before being forced to give it back after 20 years. Who else? Both Moldavia and Wallachia were in 1812 under Russian military occupation, Moldavia had no ruler, no army and no other possibility to defend itself. The protests issued by the Moldavian noblemen were candidly ignored. Both Moldavia and Wallachia were autonomous entities and both had concluded with the Ottoman empire treaties in which it’s explicitly stated that they were self-ruling entities. That they had no possibility to defend themselves and that three empires used them as bartering chips, as milking cows or as battlegrounds without having any legal right over them is another story entirely. Any territorial annexation of Moldavia or Wallachia was done illegally as the Ottoman Empire did not own a single rod of that ground and therefore had no right to dispose of them.
  - Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 5:33 pm EST/EDT
    
    Read this, before spreading more lies:
    
    In 1834, Romanian language was banned from schools and government facilities, despite 80% of the population speaking the language. This would eventually lead to the banning of Romanian in churches, media and books. Those who protested the banning of Romanian could be sent to Siberia.
    
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bessarabia
    
    Explain me why all the small nations from around Russia start to dislike it so much lately ?
    Maybe Russians should finally accept the truth about their past crimes also, and not play the innocence card ?
    - Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 6:14 pm EST/EDT
      
      You do realize that even the Romanian church used “old church Slavic” as their language until the rise of Romanian nationalism in the 19th century.So what on earth would a “ban on Romanian in church” mean to a people that didn’t use Romanian in church.And a “ban on Romanian in schools” to a peasant people that didn’t have public schooling.That came with the Russians to that land.And of course they would teach in Russian.Just as in France all the schools were required to only teach in French (even in the non-French speaking areas).That was the norm of the 19th century in Europe.
  - Intrigat on June 02, 2015 · at 7:22 pm EST/EDT
    
    Excuse me. Slavic loanwords in Romanian are South Slavic, not Eastern Slavic. Same goes for Orthodoxy and use of Cyrillic script.
    - Andrew on June 03, 2015 · at 12:30 am EST/EDT
      
      Intrigat:
      
      There are Slavic loanwords from both South Slavic and East Slavic in Romanian.
      
      Cyrillic script and Orthodoxy takes a common origin among all the Slavs, and the Romanian pastoralists who migrated down the Danube and the Prut from the Iron Gate and Roman Dacia borrowed it from the Slavs they encountered on both sides – Bulgars and Serbs in the south and then Rusyns and especially Russians in the north. This of course points to the late date of the Romanian migration to the Danube delta and into the Bessarabian plain since it obviously occurred after the Bulgars and Serbs were established in the south and the Rus in the north.
      - Moldavian on June 03, 2015 · at 2:32 am EST/EDT
        
        Andrew, did you even bother to look at the several links that I posted about history of Moldavia ?
        Your lies are absolutely shocking. {……………]
        
        [ Moldavian you have been warned before., Don’t abuse people. Every nation writes its history to make itself look good and innocent and others to look bad. This includes yours. Here is a great opportunity for you to learn how the other side sees it. Obviously it is not the same as what you were taught….but that was at least as biased and twisted as you are claiming for the other side. Learn to pick your way through it and learn something.
        
        Never accuse anyone of lying just because you disagree with them. That is just furthering hostilities, which does NOT make your side look as innocent as you’d like to see it. —Mod_K.K. ]
      - Intrigat on June 03, 2015 · at 6:08 pm EST/EDT
        
        What are you trying to do is dangerously close to dishonesty: portraying the Romanians as illiterate Pagan shepherds while the Slavs were already Christianized literate people was exactly what every empire, starting with medieval Hungary and ending with the USSR, has ever done. The South Slavic influences on both language and religion are easy to explain due to the Bulgarian empire’s domination in the area. The rest is pure speculation.
        
        FLOR solitaria on June 04, 2015 · at 2:43 am EST/EDT
        
        Hungary is allied with Russia because (among other things) they both used to own pieces of Romania. And they both want them back. Romanians may be now under a very corrupt leadership, but they still remember what they suffered under those occupations. Many people who were imprisoned or otherwise wronged are still alive, and those who are dead left their memories to their children. And it was the same for the Latvians, the Poles, and so on. When they had a chance to get rid of the Bear’s embrace, they jumped at the opportunity.
        
        Your continuing demonization of those peoples, and trying to change history, is not going to make you any friends. It’s the same as with the continual bashing of Catholicism, or of the ‘decadent’ West. Russia will become isolated through her own fault. Many people who pretend to support her in reality just want to see her fall. And others who would like to be her friends are continually repulsed by the hostile self-righteousness displayed by the Russians with every occasion they get.
        
        You cannot be friends with people when you continually belittle them, express contempt for their poverty, try to change their history (which they know very well, so it’s a futile attempt), ally yourselves even with your former oppressors just to bash others, and generally behave like a bully. That’s not friendship. It’s not even a basis for alliance, just as corrupt elites selling themselves from one empire to the other is not.
        
        I would say that the Russian PR is absolutely dismal. Don’t judge by the applause you get on this site. Many of your enemies cheer you on even here. And regarding your diaspora you should know that many of them do not care about what’s happening in Ukraine, they’re just happy to be out of Russia or Eastern Europe. Others are very disappointed by what the Bear does and they consider VVP a traitor to his people.
        
        So I think there is food for thought here.
alan on June 01, 2015 · at 7:03 pm EST/EDT

I must say after reading this post, I post this with a heavy heart. I can only think of the following scenarios:
1. There are lots of provocations/attacks by the Junta. If this happens, unless the people in Odessa themselves take up arms to protect themselves, they will be “cleansed”. Such large scale killings have occurred in various parts of the world throughout history, so to see it happen will not be out of the ordinary. Also, by defending yourselves, you buy time for the rest of the world (i.e. Russia) to come to your help. Russia cannot help you if you dont fight for yourselves.

2. If there are no provocations, the current Junta regime will perhaps do it the “slow” way, i.e. keep moving people for other parts of the Ukraine in, to “dilute” the current Odessa population mix over the next few years.
- Kat Kan on June 01, 2015 · at 8:44 pm EST/EDT
  
  They already are moving or pushing out the Odessans. The markets re being “bought” by people from Ternopol (West Ukraine) and they are importing their own people to work in them,. The locals lose their long-held jobs. The new arrivals march up and down with SS flags to scare the locals out of coming outside. There is an Azov brigade 1000 strong ensconced there, used to doing as they please.
  
  http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/odessa-occupied-by-ternopol.html
Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 7:28 pm EST/EDT

He’d be a great first target for the ‘Mozgovoi’ special Ops group no?
- Solon on June 01, 2015 · at 9:53 pm EST/EDT
  
  Waste of a good bullet. Arrest him and send him back to where he’s a fugitive.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 2:47 pm EST/EDT
    
    Ah,come on now! Surely they can spare one,just one,for a good cause.If he was tried in Russia maybe he would get what he deserves.But Georgia,for all the talk of wanting him caught.I don’t think they do.They could have got him if they really wanted to by now.Having him there and being tried could be very destablishing to the current government .Its easier for them if he is away from Georgia.
Ngoyo on June 01, 2015 · at 7:38 pm EST/EDT

There is a major intervening factor in the Empire’s calculations regarding this confrontation with Russia: the election next year. Obama is not up for reelection so acute conflict with in the run up to the election does him no good. In fact such conflict will only benefit the republicans who are generally seen as better on national security and defense than the democrats. So there is an incentive for the Empire to de-escalate the conflict, make it more manageable and compartmentalized.

I suspect that what they want to do with Transnistria is not an all out attack, but rather destablization, like Macedonia. The aim would be to keep things at a level of maximum ambiguity for Russia. This would also maximize internal Russian political divisions and quarreling over what action she should take, while making Putin look weak and indecisive.

Lets not forget also that attacking Transnistria outright carries huge risks for the Ukronazi’s (which is not to say they wont do it!).They would end up fighting on two fronts, Donbass and Transnistria (TMR). Russia could probably stir up trouble for them in Odessa, which is probably why Crazy Misha was sent there i.e to keep down potential Russian trouble making.

In the end Russia’s best strategy if TMR is attacked is to allow it to fall (like Ukraine) then support it covertly (very difficult but possible). This will put maximum stress on Moldova, the Ukronazi regime and the Empire. The TMR people will suffer, however, their suffering will turn world opinion against the Empire.
- Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 8:54 pm EST/EDT
  
  Very good post save the supposed incentive for the Empire to de-escalate the conflict because of the impending presidential elections in the US of A. Too much is at stake here. Election outcomes will, thus, not carry much influence on the real decision makers within the AngloZionist deep state.
  
  So, Russia should pick its fights and not try to hold on to indefensible positions – in this case Transnistria. People who feel attached to Russia could be flown out as could be the Russian peace keepers, of course.
  
  Giving up on Transnistria would also carry a strong message that Russia wants peace. It is this stance that has, to date, rallied the BRICS behind Russia – support that Russia cannot do without.
  
  Giving up on Transnistria could be accompanied by more overt support for Novorossia, which would counteract any impression of weakness on Putin’s part besides being good in and of itself.
  
  So, the armchair general says that Putin should act in his familiar Jiu-Jitsu-style, letting the Empire’s gambit on Transnistria develop until it backfires on the Empire itself with him acting as the savior of peace.
  - Sharon on June 01, 2015 · at 10:16 pm EST/EDT
    
    “So, Russia should pick its fights and not try to hold on to indefensible positions – in this case Transnistria. People who feel attached to Russia could be flown out as could be the Russian peace keepers, of course.”
    
    Best solution so far especially since someone else mentioned only 27% of population are Russian.
    
    This is much wiser than Saker’s solution to sit around waiting for Kiev to fall. People starving whlle waiting for that!
  - Uncle Bob 1 on June 01, 2015 · at 11:26 pm EST/EDT
    
    Yes, then they can do the same with the Kuril Islands and Kaliningrad of course.Why defend those areas when you want “peace”.And some few want a Siberian Republic,why not? and then just go the whole way,forget the half-measures,knell down to the West.That would make the “World Community” see how Russia only wants peace,at least what’s left of Russia that is.Don’t forget South Ossetia and Abkazia as well.That would show Russia only wants peace too,let the Georgian forces attack and conquer them,why not. And China,why not give up Tibet and the Spratly Islands.After all they want “peace” too.And Syria,who cares if the US and Saudi backed Islamists massacre all the Shia and Christians there. Afterall “peace” is the name of the game,right?
    
    I hate to quote a man like Churchill.But even the worst say something important sometimes.Talking of Chamberlain: “He had the choice of war and shame.He chose shame and got war as well”. Hopefully we won’t need to insert the name Putin in Chamberlain’s place for a similar quote.
    - Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 8:09 am EST/EDT
      
      Kuril islands and Kaliningrad are two totally different matters as compared to Transnistria.
      
      First off, both belong to Russia proper. The weakness argument really holds here.
      
      Strategically, the situation presents itself as follows:
      
      Kuril Islands: These islands are absolutely indispensable for guarding the Sea of Ochotsk, where Russia’s stategic missile submarines have their Pacific hideout. Plus, islands are, by their very nature, very defensible. Plus, nothing of value is located on the Kurils themselves, whence Russia could go to great lengths defending them. Plus, supply by sea and by air is un-threatened as long as no war breaks out. Plus, resupply has its base in nearby, well-stocked (I presume) Wladivostok.
      
      Kaliningrad: Obviously not as defensible by far as the Kuril islands but still invaluable as a thorn in NATO’s side. If war breaks out, Russia can use Kaliningrad to attack NATO missile bases in Poland before the territory gets overrun (assuming that Iskanders will ever be stationed there). Until then, shipping in resupply will always be possible via St. Petersburg.
      - Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 1:19 pm EST/EDT
        
        Agree on Kurile Islands,mot so much on Kaliningrad.A sea blockade would be the same as the land blockade.Meant to stop Russian supplies from going through.Then it would be the same choice,fight or surrender. But I see you didn’t comment on the other areas I mentioned.And those are exactly the same situation.Either you defend your friends and people or you don’t.Russia in the past has said yes.But today is another time.So we will have to see.If she kneels to the West in Transnistria,we will see very soon.Because those areas will certainly be next.
        
        Julian on June 04, 2015 · at 9:11 am EST/EDT
        
        A blockade is an act of War and could be responded do in a warlike manner – in fact would have to be responded to in a warlike manner lest Russia be perceived as weak.
        
        What do I mean – a land invasion of Lithuania of course.
  - mmiriww on June 02, 2015 · at 2:12 am EST/EDT
    
    The TMR people will suffer, however, their suffering will turn world opinion against the Empire.
    
    Well the suffering of the Libyans, Iraqi’s, Syrians don’t seem to have actually helped any of the those missing their heads much..
    - Ngoyo on June 02, 2015 · at 7:31 am EST/EDT
      
      That may be so. But if TMR is attacked the people will suffer anyway. There is nothing Russia can do about that. A russian invasion and the resulting war would lead to even greater suffering all around.
    - Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 2:40 pm EST/EDT
      
      I doubt it.Which of the MSM would report it (if they were even let in there).As anything other than another “Putin” aggression.
      - Ngoyo on June 03, 2015 · at 3:03 pm EST/EDT
        
        Its not just the MSM. Opinion has shifted against USA in Africa, Asia & Latin America & Russia. Putin must play with cards dealt, as he has done brilliantly to date.
  - Ngoyo on June 02, 2015 · at 7:46 am EST/EDT
    
    Election outcomes are important to the participants in the election. And those participants and their surrounding coalitions, are an important part of the ruling elites. The de-escalation I envisage is really a change in tactics. Destabilization rather than frontal assault. Of course anything can happen, the empire may be too desparate to hold back. We will have to wait and see.
- Our Deaths will follow shortly. on June 02, 2015 · at 4:29 am EST/EDT
  
  American elections are and have been fixed since they blew Kennedy’s brains out. We now have computer voting machines so the Facist zionists can easily annoint their next President, probably already have. No paper trail, no recount. The game in the u$a is sown up. Citizens have abjicated their democratic responsibility long ago. The jig is up, time to pay the zionist piper.. The military is practising population control,ala Jade Helm 15 exercises, contrary to the Posse Comitatus Act .. Underground cities have been created for the .01 % zionist. The rest of us are going to die as a result of nuclear war or nuclear pollution (Fukishima is three nuclear bombs going off in slow motion).The Pacific Ocean is dying, soon after so will everything else above ground. The reason the u$a will start nuclear wars with China and Russia is because they know the planet is already dying. No force on earth can stop what’s happening at Fukishima. It’s a done deal. Survival of the .01% zionazi’s is the only thing that matters. The suffering in Ukraine is miniscule compared to the deaths of 4.5 billion souls. Not to minimize these people , but you and your loved ones will die as well. Wrap your mind around that.
Adrian on June 01, 2015 · at 7:57 pm EST/EDT

There is a simple solution to deflect the pressure from Transnistria. If pressure grows on Transnistria; then pressure grows on the frontline between Novorussia and Banderastan. The ukronazis will find themselves between a rock and a hard place because an attack on Transnistria may mean the fall of Mariupol, Slaviansk and even Kharkov.
Off course Lavrov must carefully and politely explain the options to the ukronazis and their masters. Let them choose.
- zweistein on June 02, 2015 · at 11:26 am EST/EDT
  
  Good point.
Nussiminen on June 01, 2015 · at 8:20 pm EST/EDT

Leonid Reshetnikov is absolutely correct:

“Now the Russian government needs to take urgent and harsh measures to bring the actors in Moldova and Kiev to their senses /…/ I think that if we don’t take resolute measures in the nearest month, it will cause a situation which in some respects are similar to the Odessa tragedy /…/ RIght now, our society, our civil activists need to raise this question at every level — locally, federally — put this question before our government /…/ First, recognize the independence of Transnistria. Second, sign a cooperation and mutual defense agreement. There’s no other options. Or we have to hand it over to the half-educated Romanian nationalists who took Chisinau.

Granted, what “senses” could possibly be attributed to tie-eater Shitsvili, the Ukro-Nazis, and all the other assorted offal united in Russophobia is way beyond me. Suffice it to say that fascist imbeciles are congenital cowards, instantly wetting their pants as soon as they sense mounting resistance. Shitsvili eating his tie shows exactly the way these scum react upon realizing they have miscalculated badly.
Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 8:31 pm EST/EDT

Before you talk/speculate more without knowing facts, try to find something about the economy in Transnistria:

The region’s economy is based on four giant industrial plants: the JSC Moldova Steel Works in Ribnita (MSW Ribnita), Tirotex, the Ribnita Cement Plant and the Moldavskaya GRES power plant. 95% of these firms production is exported.

The MSW Ribnita steelworks was privatised in 2003. Its products are exported predominantly to the USA, Germany and Italy. The steelworks is the second largest tax contributor, but it is also exposed to fluctuations on global markets and energy price rises. The company’s situation has been gradually deteriorating since the economic crisis in 2007. The plant is often forced to stop production due to the lack of orders.

Tirotex is among Europe’s largest textile producers. The company’s main stockholder is the Transnistrian group Sheriff. According to data from the Transnistrian customs service, in 2011 this plant sold products worth US$163 million to external markets. Given the fact that, according to the firm’s declarations, it exports 70% of its production, its income for 2011 can be estimated at around US$230 million (it sells its products mainly to Austria, Germany, Italy and Greece).

The Ribnita Cement Plant was privatised in 2004. At present, its majority shareholder is Metalloinvest, as is the case with the Ribnita steelworks. The plant’s products are sold both at home and on international markets. Most of its output is exported to Russia. Like MSW Ribnita, the plant currently has to face serious problems due to the slowdown on the construction market linked to the global economic crisis and rising gas prices.

The Moldavskaya GRES power plant was privatised in 2004–2005. Currently, its controlling stake is held by Inter RAO UES, an energy group owned by the Russian state. The plant meets the region’s energy needs, although only a small part (around 20%) of its output is used for this purpose. 80% goes to right-bank Moldova, where it meets 50% of the demand for energy. Until March this year, the plant also exported a small proportion of its output to Romania.

The most important trade partners and recipients of 88% of the region’s production in 2012 were: right-bank Moldova (US$250 million), Russia (US$154.7 million), Romania (US$103.1 million), Ukraine (US$59.6 million) and Italy (US$46.8 million). The significance in Transnistria’s overall trade balance of EU member states is increasing, while that of the CIS countries is falling; total exports to the EU in 2012 reached US$203.5 million, and to post-Soviet countries US$223.2 million.

As you can see, if Moldova and the rest of EU stop buying energy, textiles or steel from Transnistria, there will be serious economic troubles over there.

http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-05-16/aided-economy-characteristics-transnistrian-economic-model
- Kat Kan on June 01, 2015 · at 9:09 pm EST/EDT
  
  Moldavian, are you ignoring the issue on purpose?
  
  Four big companies, foreign owned = what do the locals get fronm that except their wages?
  
  Four big businesses, all doing badly lately for various good reasons = how many people do they still employe4? how many did they ever employ? the whole half million?
  
  Nope. Most of the people who worked did so in agriculture. And sold their goods to Moldova, which in the past few years has been playing games. Border controls, border delays of days or weeks, inspections and rejected goods. All the big factory outputs had to struggle through Moldova border controls.
  
  The average person has very little income, or none at all. Which means the economy is poor or non-existent,. We are talking economy as a system where people buy things (eg food) because they have money to pay because they have jobs to earn with. A few big companies used to make profits (which they took outside the country) does not make a good economy.
  - Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 12:05 am EST/EDT
    
    He is a Moldovan/Romanian nationalist who wants Moldova annexed to Romania.And the Russian population ethnically cleansed.Every post he writes exposes that ideology.So yes,he won’t see reason.Reason doesn’t fit the agenda.
    
    But here are some facts.Most of the people in that region (Transnistria) are,Russian,Russianized Ukrainians and pro-Russian Moldovans. The largest party in Moldova itself is pro-Russian.And polls show more people support joining the EEU than the EU. Transnistria,has a better army than Moldova (similar to the Donbass situation ,only smaller).The big ethnic minority territory,Gagauzia is pro-Russia.And the other big minority the Bulgarians are pro-Russian.The Moldovan government is weak and corrupt.A regime change is a strong possibility if they try to make violent anti-Russian moves.
    
    Here is an article on the Moldovan situation: http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/political-pendulum-moldova-swings-back-russia-crisis-brews/ri7425
None on June 01, 2015 · at 8:33 pm EST/EDT

You mostly write very well Saker, but this time you are wrong. The solution is NOT a complete de-nazification of Ukraine, because that is too “expensive” for Russia who would have to do the de-nazification. Remember that at least ten (10) million people in western Ukraine are nazis/hard-core nationalists. The do not want to be de-nazified just as much as Donbass people don´t want to be “ukrainized”. The only solution is a BIG Novorossia : the eight Novorossian oblasts + Transniestria + all lands east of the Dnepr river. The “hooray-patiots” as you call them are right this time. And to defend Russia and the russian people inside Russia Putin has to start the defence in Novorossia and Transniestria, and even in Syria. He should not wait until the enemy is inside Russia. I think the russian people understands this very well. They don´t want war – nobody does – but sometimes you have no choice if you want to keep your independence. You know this, so it is strange to read your arguments against the Novorossia-solution, which, in its BIG version is the only solution!
- Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 9:03 pm EST/EDT
  
  No, the simple truth is that Russians inside Russia do not want to fo to war over any part of Ukraine. People outside Russia might think the opposite holds true with all this patriotism among Russians and all. Patriotism or not, Russians still do not want to die over any part Ukraine. They are more than happy to be still alive after the Yelzin years, a majority of Russians still making their living under difficult circumstances. That’s how life in Russia presents itself in the year 2015.
  - Paul II on June 02, 2015 · at 2:55 am EST/EDT
    
    More proof, as if we needed any, that democracy wouldn’t work. Russia would be doomed if all of the Ukraine stayed in the hands of Nazis.
- Adrian on June 01, 2015 · at 10:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  Agreed; 100%. Let the Eurocretins take the wastelands west of the river and let Novorussian people live in peace in a free country.
- Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 3:01 am EST/EDT
  
  The Russian people inside the RF won’t allow another Bolshevik type revolution on the inside by fifth columnists. They learn from the past. The Saker is correct that Putin has no right, at this time, to ask Russian citizens to go fight in Ukraine in another “Afghanistan.” If the situation there becomes a direct existential threat to the RF, then he will take action, but not before. He is not a dictator, and he has to listen to the will of the people.
  - Nussiminen on June 02, 2015 · at 12:29 pm EST/EDT
    
    “The Russian people inside the RF won’t allow another Bolshevik type revolution on the inside by fifth columnists. They learn from the past.”
    
    Haha, deeply regret to inform you that the Russian people does pay homage all right to the USSR and, most notably, to Joseph Stalin, the most über-rotten, über-filthy creature to have ever existed. So it’s either you or the Russians who don’t learn ftom the past.
    
    For the umpteenth time: Both the Russian people and its mortal Zionazi enemies understand full well what most Westerners are too dense and/or too arrogant to grasp. Putin, like Lenin and Stalin before him, drives the West totally bonkers by fighting back with courage, intelligence, and — bloody horror — success. No nazi/revisionist tripe will ever change that. Facts are stubborn things.
- Ann on June 02, 2015 · at 4:53 am EST/EDT
  
  to None….BS…there’s no way there 10 million nazis in Ukraine. Not even hard core nationalists…they’re just slighty brain washed, normal decent people mostly…and a few pyschopaths…who are the nazis.
  - sejmon on June 04, 2015 · at 12:33 am EST/EDT
    
    Ann, you are wrong there is plenty nationalists in Ukraine , they are not slightly brainwashed, but next few months hardship will sober up Maidan”freedom fighters”…….and others airheads
Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 9:09 pm EST/EDT

Some more economic information about Transnistria and one of it’s biggest company called Sheriff. It might be useful for the enthusiasts who want to go there and re-colonize the region after a potential war (Uncle Bob and Ann, are you up for it ? Are you good at smuggling and making deals under the table ?):

Political disengagement has been profitable to a few local businesses. The isolationist policies of
authorities have allowed a local holding company, Sheriff, to forge an unchallenged monopoly on
the region’s economy. Sheriff was founded by two state security officers who started a business
initially masked as a charity to support the families of other policemen. In the 1990s, they began
taking over the booming cigarette smuggling business. At that time locals made money smuggling
cigarettes from Ukraine to Transnistria and onward to Europe. Gradually Sheriff took over other
informal businesses that generated significant income (cigarettes, liquor, and frozen chicken legs,
among other things). In the words of one resident, Sheriff was untouchable: “Nobody could touch
them because they had significant contacts with the police and military, as well as with the MGB.”
Sheriff took over the niche opportunities that allowed residents to make money in the aftermath of
the war. Like many successful economic entities in the former Soviet Union, who actually stands
behind Sheriff remains a mystery; its two owners are well-known figures, but it is unclear what
control they exercise. Some residents believe that members of the President’s family are silent
partners, while others say that Sheriff is simply the economic arm of the “power ministries.”
Sheriff’s dominance can be traced to a 1996 contract it concluded with PMR authorities on “mutual
cooperation.” This arrangement created the preconditions for monopolizing trade in the region.
President Igor Smirnov “recommended” that the state rent the largest (and most profitable) state
food stores to Sheriff. At the time, these stores were stocked with local products and patronized
because of their prices, selection, and locations. They were Soviet-style stores, with separate counters for each department, but they functioned. Gradually, they were closed and replaced by western-style Sheriff supermarkets. For closing its competition, Sheriff was rumored to have paid a half-million dollars up front and monthly financial aid to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars. Sheriff’s monopoly was not built upon ingenuity or hard work, but upon connections, that most valuable commodity in the former Soviet Union.

Sheriff’s businesses grew to cover a wide variety of industries and include a network of
supermarkets, gas stations, and Moldova’s most successful football club, which boasts a massive
training complex and stadium outside the city. Sheriff controls a large regional bank in addition to
owning the sole telephone (fixed and mobile) and Internet service provider in the region. Other
businesses include textiles, broadcast television, cable/satellite television, auto sales, publishing,
cognac production, bread making, meat/poultry production, milk production, aquaculture, second-
hand clothing, light manufacturing, and a local advertising firm.

Sheriff has its own customs broker and logistics company that serves as an intermediary for other
small businesses. One informant told me of a friend who was looking to import kegs of beer to sell
during the hot summer months. After formalizing the details of his business plan, he scheduled a
meeting with Sheriff. He was directed to the office of an executive who explained how business
would proceed: Sheriff would import the beer trucks through their own customs yard, and he would
be responsible for paying a fixed fee per truck. Sheriff would handle the documents, logistics, and
conveyance to and from the customs yard. He would not be paying the state customs yard, but
rather Sheriff for the privilege of conducting business. The terms of the deal were not negotiable,
and it was made clear to him that there would be consequences if he proceeded without Sheriff.
Whether you run a small market or kiosk, you purchase your inventory at one of Sheriff’s wholesale depots. Sheriff makes sure that wholesale prices on certain goods remain high for their competitors to ensure that people continue to patronize their supermarkets.

Sheriff supermarkets are known for their creative expiration dates. Friends warned me to avoid dairy
products, explaining that they would buy expired stock, change the expiration dates, and sell it as
fresh. Since Moldovan imports were prohibitively taxed at 100%, Sheriff had no competition and
could dictate the terms of sale, since no alternative suppliers could exist in the region. Sheriff is also
known for its harsh treatment of workers, and due to the precarious economic situation they have
an unlimited reserve of labor in the region. In the alcohol section, all wine and liquor (except wine
from Moldova) lack customs stamps. Cigarettes sold in Sheriff also bear no customs stamps. Often,
western-branded products found in Sheriff are counterfeit. One foreign researcher visiting Tiraspol
purchased a counterfeit Colgate toothbrush that resulted in bleedings gums and Old Spice
deodorant that left a rash. The emergence of the region as a sop for imported gray-market
foodstuffs has decimated local food producers, as their products are now unprofitable. Despite
having some of the most productive agricultural land in Moldova, the region imports a
disproportionate amount of its food. As the first western-style supermarket in the region, Sheriff’s
consumerist offerings index civility. On more than one occasion, residents remarked to me about
how they felt like a human being when shopping at Sheriff, because they did not have to ask a sales attendant for each and every item they wished to purchase. Consistency and chain, the bane of consumerism in the America, indexes progress itself. Shopping as civilization.

Sheriff makes life difficult for small businesses. One small business owner I interviewed had $500 worth of cigarettes confiscated simply because they had Ukrainian customs stamps (the cigarettes were purchased locally). A recent law (rumored to have been passed at the behest of Sheriff) made the sale of Ukrainian cigarettes illegal. This rule forced smokers to purchase contraband tobacco products supplied, of course, by Sheriff. Consequently, cigarettes with Ukrainian customs stamps increased in value, since they were seen as unadulterated. Demand swelled, and customs officials on the PMR’s eastern border with Ukraine were directed to intercept shipments. It was common knowledge that border guards themselves preferred Ukrainian cigarettes. Once it was clear that this regulation was not being effectively enforced, Sheriff put its own employees on the border to
monitor the situation. The border, the physical limit of the state’s coercive powers, was policed by
those serving not a state institution that held a monopoly on violence, but a quasi-state institution
that held a monopoly on trade. Despite Sheriff’s best efforts, smokers can still find Ukrainian
cigarettes. The cigarettes for sale in Sheriff supermarkets look almost exactly like the Ukrainian
brands previously available. The packaging is the same, though some have fake duty-free stickers:
duty free Philippines, Dubai, and, perhaps most curiously, “North Africa.”

Sheriff has created a diffuse economic structure that blurs the line between business and politics.
On paper, it is a holding company, a company that owns other companies’ outstanding stock. Yet in
reality, Sheriff is a company that has profited from close relations to the state. Its low tax burden, its
widely publicized charity programs for pensioners, and its ubiquitous corporate logo (an old
Western-style sheriff’s badge) lend it an aura of invincibility within the region. Sheriff’s name and
logo perhaps best exemplify how in the PMR the law functions at the level of representation. Those
charged with enforcing the law represent only themselves and their own interests, not the interests
of the state or any abstract notion of justice. For Sheriff, the law is but an icon, a corporate logo, a
brand that both alludes to what is lacking in the PMR (the law as an objective tool of justice) yet
ubiquitous at the symbolic level. Locals readily accept the Sheriff supermarket chain as “ours,”
settled custom in the region
- Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 01, 2015 · at 9:20 pm EST/EDT
  
  Excellent description of how these gang/oligarchies work. Did you write it yourself? or do you have a LINK please to the original?
  - Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 9:39 pm EST/EDT
    
    I didn’t write it myself, but I understand very well how these things work(ed) in general in Eastern Europe. I think there won’t be another war in Transnistria because the interests of mafias from nearby countries are too big. The main reason for Transnistria to exists as it is based on this corruption heaven. If Russia, Ukraine or Moldova takes and tries to impose the rule of law, some powerful locals will revolt again.
    
    http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:xfnwoK-435EJ:www.miamioh.edu/cas/_files/documents/havighurst/2012/bobick.pdf+&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
  - Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 10:09 pm EST/EDT
    
    And here is more information about the mafia’s tentacles in countries from the entire region. I won’t be surprised (considering the killings of Bednov and Mozgovoy in Lugansk plus all the strange moves from Kremlin) if the real purpose behind the fights in Donetsk is similar to what happen in Transnistria 20 years ago. If the EEU and EU come to an agreement at some point in the future, one of the best places to be for smuggling is somehow in the middle. After war there will be peace, it was always like that:
    
    http://www.investigatii.md/eng/index.php?art=221
    - Kat Kan on June 01, 2015 · at 10:58 pm EST/EDT
      
      I traced down parts of that long Sheriff story being quoted as far back as 2010 So it’s not exactly current.
      
      Wikipedia claims changes were made to various laws in 2012 to reduce Sheriff’s preferential position, too, and the worsening economy must have affected them as well.
      
      This is not a Mafia issue. They’ve been voting for independence since 1990, most recently in 2006, supposedly with over 90% in favour.. I well understand why, too — the countries o both sides are not nice to minorities. A country that is made up of numerous groups of roughly equal size, and many smaller ones, so mixed that it’s rare to have neighbors of your “own” group, they get on because they LIVE THERE and none of them is a “majority” to want to lord it over the others.
      
      That is exactly the secret of the Russian Federation. It is a state for all its citizens whoever they may be. . And the opposite is the problem for Ukraine, Moldova and all the others, who are trying so hard to BE SOMETHING DISTINCT that they try to destroy everything that is NOT that (imaginary) something. It is hundreds maybe thousands of years too late to make a state for only people of the same ethnic background, because there is no such thing. Everyone is mixed. The minorities such states try to get rid of are their cousins.
  - Outlaw Historian on June 01, 2015 · at 11:00 pm EST/EDT
    
    I googled the item, and it’s behind a paywall at http://www.tol.org/client/article/21833-in-transdniester-one-company-is-a-law-unto-itself.html
    - Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 01, 2015 · at 11:26 pm EST/EDT
      
      Yep. Formatting gave it away as c/p anyway; there are other refs to it if you use unique phrases
  - Jack on June 02, 2015 · at 1:07 am EST/EDT
    
    I was going to ask the very same question; the odd formatting is the giveaway. No one should copy-and-paste from other sites without giving credit,
- Signalman on June 01, 2015 · at 9:55 pm EST/EDT
  
  Formatting is like an obstacle course.
The Wend on June 01, 2015 · at 9:11 pm EST/EDT

Saker said:

—————————–
” Some will suggest a rather naive “solution”: let the Novorussians take Maripol, open a land corridor to the Crimean Peninsula, from there mount a land and naval attack to liberate Nikolaev and Odessa and finish the triumphal march with a quick dash towards the TMR border. In theory this all looks simple, but in reality this would be a major and clear act of war by Russia, it would require a full-scale intervention of the Russian military, and it would be a dream come true for NATO and the AngloZionists. Not to mention that there is no support for anything like that in Russia herself. ”
————————-

I fully disagree with Saker on this one. It is not a “naive solution”, but ( maybe!) the only possible solution. Odessa is not important only because of Transnistria, but because of the whole of the Balkans. Russia can not forever betray all of her remaining allies in Europe and expect to win this fight against Anglo-Zionist Empire.

Just to illustrate: Russia blatantly betrayed FR Yugoslavia (Serbia and Montenegro) in 1999. What are the consequences of this ? We see them today. There is nobody in the Balkans who is ready to accept the Russian “Turkish pipeline” on its territory. Macedonian Prime minister gave in to the American pressure and so did the Serbian Prime minister, just 2 days ago. Why ? Their populations want to have this connection with Russia. The answer is simple: they are scared. The West scared them, blackmailing them with another big war in the Balkans. They don’t take Russia seriously enough. And if Russia doesn’t take Odessa and defend Transnistria everybody in the Balkans will continue not to take Russia seriously.

I’ve been saying for almost a year that Odessa is the key of the Ukrainian crisis. Strategically more important even then Kiev or Kharkov. I mean, look at the map: Danube Delta is in Odessa Oblast !!! Danube! It will send the message: that Russia is back.
Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 9:17 pm EST/EDT

Some more information for the Transnistria colonizers enthusiasts. But don’t get too scared, at least you will get the chance to drink one of the best and cheapest brandy in the world called Kvint ;-) (really hypes up the moral after a few shots) :

In both the consolidation of the PMR’s sovereignty and the emergence of Sheriff, one notices two
deft acts of substitution with wide resonance in the region. As a set of state institutions, the PMR
can lay claim to two key victories. On the one hand, with Russian support, the PMR successfully
repelled Moldovan aggression, eliminated its primary sovereign competition and negated, at least
initially, the potentially deleterious effects a Moldovan national state might have had on the region –
(or, it should be noted, on the members of the Transnistrian elite). On the other hand, by internally
consolidating their power and eliminating (or supplanting) a visible criminal element, the PMR’s
authorities disarmed the externally generated discourse of criminality and corruption. Sheriff’s
position today is an indirect result of eliminating competition both in the licit and illicit economies.
Intimately linked with the state project (insofar as it is both a symptom and a product of the PMR’s
unique position), Sheriff has transformed the absence of law (i.e., the popular discourse of
Transnistria as a “black hole”) into a symbolic excess of it insofar as Sheriff substitutes consumerism and charity for crime. This substitution is neither virtual nor discursive but real –
Sheriff’s economic monopoly could only be realized in tandem with the political processes described above. Yet when measured against the social and economic decay left by the collapse of the Soviet state, the consumerist offerings of Sheriff point to the (real or imagined) economic prowess of the PMR itself. The fact that Sheriff is local only serves to insulate it from criticism.
Moldavian on June 01, 2015 · at 9:26 pm EST/EDT

For the ones who want to understand even better what is really going on in Transnistria. Most likely the people actually living inside Russia will quickly understand and not all the clueless commentators from around the world:

Shortly after his inauguration Shevchuk discovered that more than ninety percent of the PMR’s
foreign currency reserves had disappeared, transferred out of the country after Shevchuk’s electoral victory. Currently, the country’s foreign currency reserves hold less $49,000 (previously hard currency reserves were approximately $10 million). The PMR’s gold reserves, previously valued at $30 million in December 2011 had dropped by $4 million dollars as of January 2012 (Interfax, March 2, 2012). Transition, the smooth functioning of “democracy,” was evidently profitable for certain individuals. As stories trickled out of former officials purchasing villas abroad on the Mediterranean coast and in South America, Shevchuk quickly issued a series of executive decisions that appearred to be the first steps to dismantling the dependency-driven economy that developed under Smirnov. He cancelled the 100% import duty on Moldovan goods ostensibly to support free trade between the regions, and promised to revisit the privatizations that occurred under President Smirnov. Recently, Shevchuk even spoke of introducing the Russian ruble as a second official currency in the PMR, further undermining PMR claims to statehood. At first glance, the obvious beneficiaries of these orders would be the residents themselves, who could now purchase freely from channels not controlled by Sheriff. Yet because of the prominent anti-corruption rhetoric and the full accounting demanded by the new administration, the precarious economic situation of the state was now made clear. Though before it was known but not acknowledged, it now could not be ignored.
The uncertainty brought about by this change was reflected in a widespread anxiety for residents.
Many wrote in forums and in the media of how now there had to be a full accounting. Some argued
that the demise of Smirnov was detrimental because it would now allow a new group to occupy the
state administration and steal even more; with Smirnov, they knew what they were getting. The illicit
dealings of Smirnov’s clan were well known, and as long as he stayed in power certain irregularities were largely covered, partially because of Smirnov’s ability to secure Russian aid. Important for the purpose of this paper is the fact that corruption existed by was insulated by the façade of the state: its practitioners were the initial state builders, and the economic complement to this state system gave them something. Though Sheriff still exists and is the dominant economic entity in the region, its role will undoubtedly diminish as cheaper, better quality Moldovan products appear in the region.
Just as President Smirnov relished his unofficial role as the “father” of the Transnistrian people,
Sheriff relished its role as the material purveyor of goods in the region. In light of its murky
relationship vis-à-vis those purporting to uphold the law, it will similarly suffer a loss of brand equity
when faced with competition.
blue on June 01, 2015 · at 9:27 pm EST/EDT

Don’t know about the rest of the world but in the US I think most people have barely even heard of Moldova, and virtually all would think Transnistria is some kind of new electronic device that their mobile phones have in them. These places could vanish into dust before it would have much affect on upcoming elections. I, living in the US all my life, don’t recall ever having heard of it until a few months ago. The US fascists depend on people not knowing anything, and work to keep everyone ignorant.

If a big company came out with a new computer tablet named transnistria, or there was a new dance by the name featured on TV, you could not even find the country on Google on the first few pages of hits — the search engine would be dominated by news of those.

Just a short time ago there was:

http://www.bigissue.com/features/5070/transnistria-the-nation-that-doesnt-exist
Transnistria: The nation that doesn’t exist
Features
Steven MacKenzie Apr 7, 2015
Inside Transnistria, the nation you won’t find on any map. What does it tells us about the future of Europe?
…
Sokenekos on June 01, 2015 · at 10:43 pm EST/EDT

Well, I’d say this is partially due to Russia’s own doing. Leaving her proven enemies w/out a scratch gives them motives to continue with their crusade.

E.g., why wasn’t Saka taken from Tbilisi & “hanged by his balls” in Moscow – as Mr. Putin had promised? He had to been brought to justice for his crimes or simply killed along his goons.

Same applies to Khodorkovski, who is again behaving like it’s the 1990s despite at least 11 “contract killings” said to be associated with him. Why was he released? His money (stolen from the Russians) is most likely now used for financing everything that goes against Russia.

OTOH, look what the zio-empire does to it’s “enemies”. They’re all killed w/out exception!!!

I agree; Russia’s position here is very difficult. Zio-scum is not going to miss on this opportunity for sure. The only thing I disagree is that this is not Russia’s worry. They are (mostly) ethnic Russians, & that’s their only guilt.

The only solace I have is that the NATO scum are uber-cowards, & if push comes to shove, this will get resolved rather quickly to Russia’s advantage – as it did in Georgia.
Kat Kan on June 01, 2015 · at 11:34 pm EST/EDT

Let them speak for themselves. Beautiful Transnistrian Foreign Minster’s statement (with video) July 2014.

http://fortruss.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/foreign-minister-of-transnistria-nina.html
Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 11:37 pm EST/EDT

Don’t forget that ‘saving Assad’ is saving Gazprom future which is also in part saving the prosperity of RF.As the goal ot the empire is to provide the EU with qatari gaz.Same for Iran,the empire wants to lift the sanctions only for the very same reason.The iranian nuke program NEVER existed it was just a pretext.For Cuba,once again..not for the gaz this time but to try to avoid a new cuban missiles crisis with a potential RF military basis installed there….etc etc..
The US have never a positive goal,but only chaos and destruction of potential ennemies or proxies.
See Isil also…same script.
South america seems to be the next target with Africa.
Next target in Africa will be Algeria,as the very old president is going to die soon.Pure hasard the the US just signed an agreement with…Spain,just in front of Algeria.

Regime change in Algeria will be VERY VERY difficult to perform as France will NEVER intervene in such an action,as more than 2 millions franco algerians live in France,it could be very very dangerous very fast for any power being from Hollande (false left)or Sarkozy(false right).
Penelope on June 01, 2015 · at 11:43 pm EST/EDT

Saker, thank you for your analysis re Transnistria.

I must say that it was difficult to remain at all objective about it in the immediate aftermath of Ukraine & Moldova reneging on their agreement regarding peacekeeping. I wonder if there is not some legal haymaking to be made out of their abandonment of the agreement. Is it impossible that Russia could say that she regards herself as still bound by the agreement and openly to supply it by air? Would they really shoot down a Russian transport?

I wonder, too, if Russia could not legally bomb ISIS in Syria. After all there was a UN resolution to do so– and surely it wasn’t limited to just the US & regional powers. But then I don’t even understand why Iran’s airforce hasn’t been more effective against ISIS.
Anonymous on June 01, 2015 · at 11:55 pm EST/EDT

Next deadline is before the end of june,date when the EU will have to take a decision to extend or not the sanctions.
They will need some kind of false flag as usual.This could be the perfect one,which would also explain the timing of sending Misha in Odessa to prepare the ‘action’.
вот так on June 02, 2015 · at 1:24 am EST/EDT

RE:

Moldavian

“what kind of grass do you smoke sometimes and how long last the effects ? Maybe you can share this with some other readers. Back to some serious facts, before instigating too many clueless people”

“Before you talk/speculate more without knowing facts”

“It might be useful for the enthusiasts who want to go there and re-colonize the region after a potential war (Uncle Bob and Ann, are you up for it ? Are you good at smuggling and making deals under the table ?)”

“Some more information for the Transnistria colonizers enthusiasts. But don’t get too scared, at least you will get the chance to drink one of the best and cheapest brandy in the world called Kvint ;-) (really hypes up the moral after a few shots)”

“For the ones who want to understand even better what is really going on in Transnistria. Most likely the people actually living inside Russia will quickly understand and not all the clueless commentators from around the world”

LOL, another “expert”.

The first “fact” the “expert” presented was this: “check first how many Russians are in your dear but in danger, Transnistria. You will find they are only about 28%”. Which, naturally, the “expert” got wrong: Scoll down a little past halfway to: Demographic evolution in Transnistria. The actual percentage of Russians is 30.4%. :D

It messed up right from the beginning. Not exactly an auspicious start, no? There is no reason to assume any other “facts” the “expert” presented to support its prejudice are any more factual than this one on the demographics.
- Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 1:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  Before you choke from laughing too much, use your brain first and understand that I wanted to point out that Russians are not even close to being a majority in that piece of land, something that was never mentioned on this website. But in fact, someone who doesn’t know about the region might believe that’s filled with Russians only. If it’s 28% or 30% should not be used as an excuse to laugh about it. Why only Russia has the right to intervene there for 1/3 of the population ? Because they are stronger ? That’s you cheer up for it ? The other nations living there (Moldavians and Ukrainianins) should be ignored and have no rights but become slaves to Russian oligarchs ?
  - Another one! on June 02, 2015 · at 6:34 pm EST/EDT
    
    Perhaps the other ethnicities living there, be it Moldavians or Ukrainians, do not wish to be Moldovians,Ukranians or Romanians?.
    
    But just wish to live and be themselves ???
    
    Did you ever consider that ?
  - вот так on June 02, 2015 · at 6:42 pm EST/EDT
    
    Moldavian
    
    Not only do you not present facts, but like a typical spambot, you simply are incapable of presenting an honest argument.
    
    Before you choke from laughing too much, use your brain first and understand that I wanted to point out that Russians are not even close to being a majority in that piece of land, something that was never mentioned on this website.
    
    The premise of that toss being that since Russians are a 1/3 the pop, the other 2/3 want to be part of Moldova or the Ukraine. By that same reasoning, the vote to join Russia in Crimea should have only been 58% in favour, and neither the Donetsk or Luhansk regions should have voted 38-39 in favour of leaving the Ukraine last year. The Russian ethnic percentages in the Ukraine as of 2001:
    
    Demographic map of the Ukraine
    
    That was for 2001, the Russian ethnic percentage in the Ukrainian regions is probably less now. What that shows is ethnicity does not determine political views. Moldavian is presenting a bogus strawman argument.
    
    Moldavian is simply trolling multiple strawman arguments and is an obvious spambot. It’s a very common webspamming technique I see used by websayan all over. The troll writes long comments full of info, pretending to be an expert, and a “local”, if applicable, but once one starts taking the material apart, one finds it all strawman arguments and regurgitated propaganda.
    - Daniel Rich on June 02, 2015 · at 9:49 pm EST/EDT
      
      @ BOT TAK,
      
      The moment individuals go after a person, rather than an argument, I switch off the ‘read now or later’ knob.
      
      In fact, those clowns go into the ‘ignore’ section of my weathered, manilla web screen folder and are left there to rot.
      
      Their ‘clever’ M.O. is so ff-ing stupid, it boggles my mind [and being small minded, that’s quite a ~~feet~~ feat].
      - вот так on June 03, 2015 · at 2:32 am EST/EDT
        
        DR
        
        Yeah, the “I’m God, you are (usually y’all) are just a bunch of idiots” spambot approach is pretty much a dead giveaway that what follows is official zionazi approved material. :D
        
        Disappointing, considering how obvious the trolling methodology used by the thing, that K.K. was gullible enough (or intimidated by the vast bulk of the spam) to take the thing seriously and encourage it to spam more irrelevant strawman BS:
        
        Vineyard Moderator – K.K. on June 01, 2015 · at 9:20 pm UTC
        
        Excellent description of how these gang/oligarchies work. Did you write it yourself? or do you have a LINK please to the original?
        
        Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 03, 2015 · at 2:54 am EST/EDT
        
        We really need a sarcasm icon. But I do believe it is easier to combat an opponent if you can see where he’s coming from. You didn’t see how much didn’t make it, either.
        
        вот так on June 03, 2015 · at 3:17 am EST/EDT
        
        Vineyard Moderator – K.K. on June 03, 2015 · at 2:54
        
        Why pollute the site with the ziospam if you know it’s trolling and wasting people’s time?
        
        JFC
        
        Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 03, 2015 · at 3:37 am EST/EDT
        
        He’s giving his “side”, not trolling, any more than say a Ukie who lists grievances against Russians. It’s what they grew up on. We need to see that. These are the people we need to educate. If they consistently refuse to engage in genuine conversation, THEN they waste our time.
        
        вот так on June 03, 2015 · at 5:17 am EST/EDT
        
        He’s giving his “side”, not trolling
        
        Yeah, right. You demean the site with your promotion of the “legitimacy” zionazi POV’s.
        
        Fail.
    - вот так on June 03, 2015 · at 2:15 am EST/EDT
      
      Messed up:
      
      and neither the Donetsk or Luhansk regions should have voted 38-39 in favour of leaving the Ukraine last year.
      
      That should have been: and both the Donetsk or Luhansk regions should have voted only 38-39% in favour of leaving the Ukraine last year.
Samuel Burke on June 02, 2015 · at 1:24 am EST/EDT

If this proves to be true it is awesome that these chumps got hacked again. Hacked Emails Expose George Soros As Ukraine Puppet-Master

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-01/hacked-emails-expose-george-soros-ukraine-puppet-master
WizOz on June 02, 2015 · at 2:39 am EST/EDT

Kolomoisky was certainly removed from the front scene because apparently the evidences of his implication in the shooting down of MH-17 is growing and also because of the existing arrest warrant emitted by Russian authorities against him.
Saakashvili is a precious member (a crypto-Khazar?) of the same Anglo-Zionist Mafia, if only as “an honorary doctor from the University of Haifa. In his acceptance speech Mr. Saakashvili called Georgians ‘the Jews of our time’ and compared Russian President Vladimir Putin’s anti-Georgian policies to the anti-Semitic campaigns of Russian Empress Catherine I.” (2006!). His relations with the Chechens are a useful capital for the “fight against Russian aggression”.
Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 2:42 am EST/EDT

Игорь Стрелков о политике Москвы в Донбассе
http://m-kalashnikov.livejournal.com/2264124.html

Igor Strelkov about the policy of Moscow in the Donbass

24 May 2015.

*Remark*: “The National security council of Ukraine appealed to the international community to block the passage of Russian ships through the Bosporus and disconnect Russia from SWIFT. Such intentions voiced by the head of the Junta’s power establishment Aleksandr Turchynov.”

*I. Strelkov*: “Lavrov has decided. He said that Poroshenko “should be supported” and that “the Republics must return to the Ukraine”? After such a brilliant “diplomatic victory” they “need to strike while the iron is hot”. As for Lavrov, for a long time already he has not been “showing concern”. We have expectations from this proven Russian diplomatic method, traditionally producing stunning results.”

*About the current situation*: “Today they are shelling Donetsk. And were shelling yesterday, and the day before yesterday. The Ukrainian army is steadily getting stronger and no signs of impending cessation of combat actions are expected. Constitutional reform is not even discussed, on the contrary, regular statements of ALL officials (including the “distinguished partner”) that Ukraine will remain a unitary state with a single state language (Ukrainian).

What is the meaning of “diplomatic success of Moscow” in “minsk”? What is its essence? That every opportunity to defeat the enemy, while he was weak, has been lost?

The essence of our official position is: “do not assume the responsibility”. This position is that of an ostrich. *Many* before us had been taking that position. The authorities of Yugoslavia, for example. Government policy presupposes – responsibility. Without responsibility there is nothing, but a mess. In its absence one can talk about a deep crisis of the politics and of the state itself.

In Kiev they are accustomed to “asymmetric responses” from Russia. They tell us “hang Muscovites”, and our response to them is – a decrease in wholesale gas prices. They give to us the genocide of the Russians in the Donbass, and we to them … again a decrease the gas prices. They to us – shut off water and electricity to Crimea, and we to them – free supply of gas, coal and electricity in the winter. So that they wouldn’t freeze, God forbid. They to us – the blockade of Transnistria and the categorical rejection of loan repayment $3 billion, and we to them…

Victoria Nuland called (publicly) on Ukraine to strictly follow the “Minsk agreements”. (After which followed the statement by Mr. Lavrov.) As a result, the Yankees are seriously considering the possibility of turning the “Minsk-2” into “Dayton-2” (with the same consequences for trusting “Slavic partners”). Accordingly, in the near future we can expect the requirements to “Separate districts with special status of Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine”[*] and to Russia to “strictly observe” and unilaterally “set an example” (allowing the ukie-troops to control the border, which is a critical “red line” for the existence of Lugansk Donetsk Peoples’ Republic and its armies). At the same time, no serious requirements are foreseen for Ukraine – it will only be “mildly reprimanded” for “certain shortcomings”. You bet! After all, they are fighting “on their land” (because morons/vermins of the Coffman-Pushilin type acknowledged their “belonging” to the Ukraine!).

Yesterday I watched RBC TV – tonight it ran an item that Japan had given a loan guarantee to Ukraine in the amount of $1.5 billion and allocated $380 millions (a trifle) directly to help Ukraine out of its budget. On “Russia-1” channel – silence, on “Russia-24” channel – similarly. There they broadcast about “economic collapse” and that “they are stopping support for Ukraine”. Who is stopping? Who are they fooling? Us. Us together with you. Poroshenko does not watch Russian TV – such propaganda is “beneath” him.

Actually entire DNR and LNR wear stripes of that same Novorussia, which Pushilin, Kofman & Co. have already “buried”. And no one is going to remove them. And they all wanted to spit on Mr. Lavrov with his opinion.

Kofman now urgently needs to denunciate the agreement with South Ossetia on mutual recognition, which he signed on behalf of the DNR. And to write an application to the foreign Ministry of Ukraine for employment. But, of course, he will topple at the first sign of danger – there is not a slightest doubt about it. He will be giving interviews in Moscow together with Boroday about the “false start”. “Two of a kind”.”

*About Video*: “Pushilin is now in favor. Went with Surkov for a week to Sochi, where, apparently, he was “initiated”.”

*About Surkov*: “Characteristically, while all my earlier accusations against Vladislav Yurievich were completely ignored, now in the Internet they started attempts (still timidly, tongue-tied and awkwardly) to somehow “grease it” and convince the public that Mr. Surkov “is not doing it and was not anywhere near”. Nice. So, things are “getting through” about his excellency the manager of public relations.[**] So, half the battle is done – understanding his role in the failure of everything in Ukraine has become well known and can no more be ignored.”

—-
[*] “Отдельные районы со специальным статусом Донецкой и Луганской областей Украины”, ОРСССДИЛОУ.
[**] The slimy “Vladislav Yurievich Surkov” (in fact Aslanbek Andarbekovich Dudayev!) was the manager of PR at a Russian TV channel in 1998-9.
- Byzantines on June 02, 2015 · at 10:54 pm EST/EDT
  
  Marcus Tullius Cicero for Sergey Lavrov-Vlad Surkov and fifth column in the Kremlin…
  “A nation can survive its fools, and even the ambitious. But it cannot survive treason from within. An enemy at the gates is less formidable, for he is known and carries his banner openly. But the traitor moves amongst those within the gate freely, his sly whispers rustling through all the alleys, heard in the very halls of government itself. For the traitor appears not a traitor; he speaks in accents familiar to his victims, and he wears their face and their arguments, he appeals to the baseness that lies deep in the hearts of all men. He rots the soul of a nation, he works secretly and unknown in the night to undermine the pillars of the city, he infects the body politic so that it can no longer resist. A murderer is less to fear.
  - Johan on June 03, 2015 · at 12:14 am EST/EDT
    
    Ditto.
Paul II on June 02, 2015 · at 3:06 am EST/EDT

Moldavian,

You are rude at times. Why? Just educate us. Next, let us say that Transnistria is as corrupt as you say. Fine, that is a terrible problem in that part of the world. Isn’t Poroshenko from there? Let us say that Russia has been comfortable with that corruption. OK, but is it any different in Moldova? Furthermore, so what? The issue is about a blockade as a war strategy by the West.

I was under the impression that Moldova has had the same brainwashing operation by the West as the Ukraine over the last 20 years, and that a high percentage of the young are anti-Russian. Let us hope it doesn’t lead to the same disaster that is occurring in the Ukraine.
- Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 5:59 pm EST/EDT
  
  The arrogance and lies (sometimes by omission) of some posts are really frustrating. Moldavians and Romanians are cornered now by all these pro-Russian cheerers who see fascists and threats everywhere. If things keep going this way, pretty soon calls for “russians liberating” Moldavia from moldavians might become a common topic around here. The same story like the bolshevik re-invasion from 1940 (after the tsarist one from 1812). I start slowly to understand the Chechens and Georgians. Most likely similar tactics were applied there too, by the “Russian liberators”.
  
  Can some of you answer why Russians are supposed to have rights than others ? Is that the type of ruling that you want to protect around ? As regarding Transnistria, it make more sense to become part of Ukraine since Russians are a minority there.
  Can you not the see double standards applied by Russia if we consider Chechnia ? Russian hypocrisy can go a long way sometimes.
geoffrey on June 02, 2015 · at 8:00 am EST/EDT

what about the people of Ukrainia ? they may be mis-informed but they need to eat every day (economic collapse) and their sons have to go to war (and never come back)..

is it not enough to oppose a corrupted government in Kiev ? here in western europe, if someone kills a minister, it is a crime because nobody is starving and there is no nazi on streets ; what is the spirit of the people ?

Geoffrey, communit from belgium
JJ on June 02, 2015 · at 8:08 am EST/EDT

http://fortruss.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/foreign-minister-of-transnistria-nina.html

as it says

article today appealing to Rus for assistance-similar basis as Crimea…video from 12th July 2014…….puts the pressure on?
Stavros H on June 02, 2015 · at 11:09 am EST/EDT

Like I said before, the anti-Pridnestrovia scenario sounds extremely plausible. As Rodoslav Idschenko has already noted (http://russia-insider.com/en/why-washington-exiled-saakashvili-odessa/ri763) the Donbass enterprise is not going too well for the AZ Empire and needs to be abandoned. But merely abandoning it and walking away would look like a serious defeat. Hence, the need for at least a token victory, or even the much desired bear-baiting through Pridnestrovia.

But I don’t think that Romania can be a part of the operations, at least not directly, since they are a NATO member and that would complicate things for the alliance way too much. It will be outsourced to Moldovia and Ukraine. Now, there can be no doubt that Porky and Yats (let alone Saakashvili) would be all for it, but I am not so sure about the Modovians. Maybe they are a bit less insane.

The situation of Pridnestrovia is beyond worrying for me.
Andrew on June 02, 2015 · at 12:09 pm EST/EDT

Gosh, sure would be nice to have two Mistral carriers right about now that could together land a brigade size force strike in Odessa and Budjak combined with a an airborne deployment of three additional brigades and link up Transnistria, Odessa, Budjak, and Gauguzia using a combined strike force of perhaps one division.

But some people keep saying Russia doesn’t need anything like this type of force projection ability?

Of course if Russia doesn’t need it, it makes no sense that NATO/US DOD is so opposed to them having the Mistrals and they should have already been delivered, which means Russia would have the capability right now of landing a brigade on the beach in the Budjak.

Rinse, wash, repeat.
- Uncle Bob 1 on June 02, 2015 · at 1:17 pm EST/EDT
  
  I don’t think not having them will stop that if they go that route.For centuries armies have landed on beaches without “Mistrals” ,and they can still.Plus,the VDV has the tried and true air option,much more likely I think.
- Johan on June 02, 2015 · at 3:16 pm EST/EDT
  
  If these two ships were indeed so indispensable for such an operation in this region, then it would show two things. First, that the AngloZionist Empire acted with premeditation in pressing France to deny these ships, having exactly this scenario in mind. And last but not least, how foolish the Kremlin regime was by contracting these ships from a NATO member (!) instead of building their own, not being able to foresee such a scenario – here or elsewhere.
  
  Although Uncle Bob 1 is right, I do not think either that it is the lack of these ships that matters. Rather, there is a general lack of resolve on part of the Kremlin regime for such a direct action, amply demonstrated in Malorussia, /from-odessa-to-transnistria-will-crazy-misha-start-another-war/comment-page-1/#comment-108593 .
  - Andrew on June 02, 2015 · at 3:48 pm EST/EDT
    
    Johan:
    
    Russian military stated presence of Mistral’s in Black Sea would have made the 8/8/8 war with Georgia much quicker because a force could have been landed south of Abkhazia, so such scenarios were already being considered. Apparently Russia lacks a reliable means of doing this now, and there are no famous Russian marine landings I can think of like Inchon or Normandy although evacuating Odessa and crossing the Kerch Strait both ways in WWII must have involved something like this.
    
    Russia had to contract with France because Russian shipyards lacked the technical knowhow and capacity to build the ships. Don’t forget the biggest Soviet shipyard was Nikolaev near Odessa, which was lost to the Kremlin in 1991.
Vuki on June 02, 2015 · at 1:51 pm EST/EDT

Misha’s demented brother Prime minister Harper of Canada has decided to pay Misha the idiot another visit in order to impress the Ukrainian voters in Canada. Harper the moron is working on his reelection bid thinking that he can lie to his constituents if they are Ukrainian. His words promote a family bloodbath in Ukraine and washes Canada’s history of peace keeping with millions of dollars of lies just for one more vote from his idiot constituency.
Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 3:16 pm EST/EDT

Because I see so many lies by omissions, I wonder if The Saker will ever address the issue of Moldova and the Russian occupation. Maybe this post will no be allowed, but I give it a try. For all the ones that will jump at my throat, please look at this movie first to understand the other side. It shows the bolshevik crimes and the forced russification in the half of Moldova renamed Bessarabia after the tsarist annexation:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XLB1CJD9VSM
- Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 4:48 pm EST/EDT
  
  Moldavian:
  
  the forced russification in the half of Moldova renamed Bessarabia after the tsarist annexation
  
  Already in 1600 long before any Tsarist conquest, Slavs were 1/3 of the population of the Principality of Moldova. And of course, the Romanian people celebrated the Divine Liturgy in Slavonic, used the Cyrillic alphabet, and spoke a language with roughly 20% Slavic loanwords, obviously evincing an overwhelming Slav influence on the newly arriving Romanian pastoralists who settled in Moldavia from 1200 onwards.
  
  Please address these facts before accusing Russia of forced Russification in the same region.
  - Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 6:16 pm EST/EDT
    
    Do you have facts from several historical sources ?
    Cheap and insulting irony (calling them “illiterate pastorals”) towards a nation who was between 3 empires should not be used as justification to occupy their lands and kill them. The wheel is always spinning and you never know when what you do to others might be done to you also.
    When Chinese immigrants might start to claim parts of Russia, don’t start crying.
    How you speak and justify past actions from history might be used against you too.
  - Moldavian on June 03, 2015 · at 4:52 am EST/EDT
    
    Read from here about population in Bessarabia before Russian occupation:
    
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russification#Bessarabia.2FMoldova
    
    And also this:
    
    http://countrystudies.us/romania/14.htm
    
    That’s why we will never-ever trust our “orthodox brothers” from Moscow again. With the amount of hate, arrogance and demeaning attitude that I can sense in some of the posts, I think we really have no other option but turn to the other side for help and protection.
    - Paul II on June 03, 2015 · at 9:01 am EST/EDT
      
      Well, I consider wikipedia to be the Anglo-American establishment when it comes to geopolitical matters or conspiratorial topics.
      
      Next, the demeaning attitude you sense is that you seem like one of the Ukrainian nationalists. This has been a big goal of the West over the last 25 years. This doesn’t end the abuses of the Russian Empire or the Bolsheviks, but do you really think the other empires 200 years ago were any different? The US wiped out 90% of the natives or more, and slavery and the white slaves called “indentured servants” weren’t something to brag about, either.
      
      Next, who has been creating the problems and radical nationalism over the past 25 years? Russia has been quite passive. Who is the aggressor? In today’s Moldova, who is promoting trouble?
    - Kat Kan on June 03, 2015 · at 9:49 am EST/EDT
      
      Moldavian
      
      we get it that you love your country. But I get an impression that you don’t live there, perhaps didn’t even grow up there. This is fine; emigres and their children often defend their old country harder than the people who still live there.
      
      My impression is from your use of outside sources and ancient history to back up your anti-Russian views; nothing personal or current in what you’re saying. This is fairly typical of those who learned/ their national identity, instead of growing up immersed in it (saying this as such a person myself).
      
      Your Wikipedia link starts at 1812 — TWO HUNDRED years ago. How does something Russia (the monarchy) did back then, prove anything about Russia (under an elected President) today? and it was the system responsible, not “Russians” the individuals. Times and attitudes do change. Even in your Wiki link goes on to say Moldovian language was later encouraged and taught in schools under SOVIET rule (“Russians” there too).
      
      Russian was taught in every state of the USSR, for the simple technical reason that it is good for an “empire” to have a common language. ENGLISH is taught all over the world today for similar reasons – to give people a common language. Transnistria, with dozens of very small ethnic/language groups, has chosen to retain Russian as their official language. This serves the purpose of not making any one group “superior” to the others by forcing their language onto the others. India with 600 local languages uses English as the common language, too, for the same reason, not to force one of the major languages onto the others.
      
      ================
      There is no hate against you here. But you did call people liars in just about every post, so you can’t expect them to be totally loving to you, either. You are being way too thin-skinned and ready to take offence, eg you say
      “…Cheap and insulting irony (calling them “illiterate pastorals”) …” the guy is talking about 1200AD when just about ALL pastoral people were illiterate; it is fact, not insult, and relevant to who most likely learned language from whom.
      
      ================
      While you are desperately hunting in Wikipedia for proofs to backup your prejudices (not your fault, you were brought up with them) you are dealing here with some commenters who have studied the history of all European peoples and the intricate patterns of their movements back and forth. History backed by documents and archeology, done by dis-interested outsiders who compare notes, shows quite different patterns for many peoples than what their own national-origin myths tell.
      
      Stick around and read. One of the big themes through this blog is how Ukraine is rewriting history (world history) to try creating a national history for themselves. You can see it in real time. It’s happened ion every country, only less blatantly and longer ago. Now with the internet we can watch it happen, and every single one of us needs to examine how much of that may have happened in our own ideas of who we are.
      
      ===============
      NEVER say “that’s a lie” when what you really mean is ” I was taught different”. Here’s your chance to teach yourself.
      - Moldavian on June 03, 2015 · at 3:11 pm EST/EDT
        
        I placed so many links in english so that everyone can understand. I have hundreds more in romanian (or moldavian, which is the same). I was hoping that some of the ones instigating pro-russians against, yet another nation, will get at least a bit of sympathy towards the fate of the local population. All I can see is victimization of the porr russians living in Transnistria (which only make 30% of the population), teaching a lesson to Moldavians/Romanians and complete ignorance towards the soviet crimes and genocide.
        The bitter part it is that these past few days have been a harsh lesson for me too. I can finally see the arrogant side of the Russians is still alive, even stronger and more terrifying.
        I used to sympathize with the Russian position (this is why I came often on this website) until I saw your attitude towards my nation.
        Things are pretty clear going forward from now on. War seems almost certain.
Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 3:38 pm EST/EDT

With hopes the truth will be allowed ……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBDVR7KcvQA
FromSerbia on June 02, 2015 · at 4:33 pm EST/EDT

Things do look ominous, but we must look at this situation realistically. An attack on Transnistria is an attack on Russian peacekeepers. Does anyone doubt that Putin will unleash the full force of Russian military, in that situation? I don’t, and the empire’s dream of baiting Russia into a war will turn into a nightmare.
- Doubting Thomas on June 02, 2015 · at 6:25 pm EST/EDT
  
  @ FromSerbia
  
  “Does anyone doubt that Putin will unleash the full force of Russian military, in that situation?”
  
  I do. Putin will probably withdraw any remaining peacekeepers, ask the apologists to label all those asking for a military action as “hurray-patriots and war-mongering agents”, promptly dispatch Lavrov to Sochi, call Merkel by phone to arrange Rambouillet-2 and finally, increase gas supplies to China.
  - FromSerbia on June 03, 2015 · at 1:37 pm EST/EDT
    
    http://ukraina.ru/news/20150602/1013245839.html
    
    “The military conflict in Transnistria was already planned long ago and can really be implemented. There are more than 160 thousand of our citizens, our peacekeepers there, there is our international obligations. If there will be an attack on Russian peacekeepers, Russia will enter the war”.
    
    Although I like the sense of humor Russians have, I don’t find them to be jokesters, particularly about war. So I take the above words seriously. Click the link and you’ll see the source. I snagged it from June 2nd SitRep.
    - No-longer-doubting Thomas on June 03, 2015 · at 10:43 pm EST/EDT
      
      @ FromSerbia
      
      “there is our international obligations. If there will be an attack on Russian peacekeepers, Russia will enter the war”
      
      Ooohh, I see, international obligations … now that’s different!… And simple me was thinking about Putin’s obligations to some Russians… Like those in Novorussia to whom he a year ago solemnly promised protection. But then (please do correct my Serbian), “обећање лудом радовање” (a promise is a fool’s rejoicing), and besides, those are (were…) mostly some Communists, not “Единная Россия” valued members and their families. Really, there are far more important domestic things to worry about https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27EPLm3alus
      - FromSerbia on June 04, 2015 · at 8:26 am EST/EDT
        
        We have a difference of opinion here.
        
        The only thing where I am skeptical is if Russia would do anything there is at least 1 dead Russian soldier in Transnistria. However, I have no doubt that if Nazis/Moldova/Romania/whatever are crazy enough to attack Russian soldiers, they will pay with both blood and territory.
        
        Also, I can’t recall Putin exactly promising a military intervention in Donbass. I think the law on protection of “Russian speakers” was for show and biding time for Donbass militias to organize.
        
        Anonymous on June 05, 2015 · at 1:13 am EST/EDT
        
        Concerning Transnistria, probably so.
        
        Concerning
        
        “I can’t recall Putin exactly promising a military intervention in Donbass”
        
        Not so. Putin’s statement was televised, it was on YouTube and other news, I saw it myself: right after the Kiev putsch Putin solemnly promised that he would ”never allow massacre of Russian population in Ukraine”. He could not have meant it by any other means than military: in fact, on 1 March 2014 the Russian Duma voted unanimously to allow Putin to use military force in Ukraine, which was then signed into a law! However, on 25 June 2014, on Putin’s request, the Russian Senate repealed that law … some BS about a “dialogue” and a “peaceful way out of crisis”. Yeah, right, it is now June 2015 – and we see the “results”. Read Strelkov’s interview /from-odessa-to-transnistria-will-crazy-misha-start-another-war/#comment-108593
        
        Ultimately, our is the quandary. On one hand, without Putin, not only would Russia be weak – but Russia would be no more! On the other hand, there are things that he does patently wrong – which should not be ignored. Keep also in mind that his regime, as any regime, does not consist only of himself, but is a complex consensus of many currents and who knows who’s interests.
Kaluga on June 02, 2015 · at 5:39 pm EST/EDT

Solution for Transinistria is very simple and would already be done if not – wait – USA and OSCE/EU would not persuade Moldova out of it. Big possibility is that some russian gangsters operating in Transinistria would not be very happy with that soultion as well. It was “asymmetric federation”. Of course after there were many excuses why that can not work and was against constitution, etc.

Something that “Moldavian” didn’t tell was about “language laws” that Moldova wanted to implement and was one of the reasons for the whole situation. Wait – funny little thing – how did minority uprisings in Croatia, Moldova, Ukraine started? Maybe it has to do something with “language laws”/extreme nationalism of some part of majority?
Moldavian on June 02, 2015 · at 5:44 pm EST/EDT

For all the ones promoting lies about the eastern half of Moldavia (Bessarabia) belonging to Russia, please read this if you have any ethics at all (especially Uncle Bob and some Anonymus person). I hope the Saker will address this issue of Russian occupation of nearby smaller nations at some point in a very serious manner. Otherwise, don’t be surprised why all the neighbors start to dislike you more and more.

http://ewwg.vlamynck.eu/cst/cst-mold/bessara.html

Bessarabia at that time (before 1000 A.D.) was mostly an unoccupied land, only in the south were there a few Byzantine, Italian and Greek merchant settlements on the Black Sea. After 1000, the Moldavians or Romanians started to spread out east, settling slowly also into the land between the Prut and Dnestr rivers. The first evidence of them in later Moldavia is from 1164. They even crossed the Dnestr in smaller groups from time to time and settled there, but there were already some other peoples and the compact Romanian population was confined to the area west of the Dnestr.

After Romanians had slowly infiltrated the area east of the Carpathian mountains from northern Transylvania, in the area today known as Bukovina they founded the principality of Moldavia in the 14th century. The reign of the Moldavian princes was extended soon to the whole area between the Carpathians and the Dnestr river, although the region today known as southern Bessarabia then belonged to the Wallachian principality under the Basarab dynasty, giving the name to it (which was applied later to the whole province).

The Principality of Moldavia was established also in part to protect Hungary’s eastern borders from the barbarians (Mongolians in the 13th century) in the steppes east of the Dnestr river. For this, a chain of fortresses had been built along this border, which could guarantee the safety of Transylvania, Upper Hungary and southern Poland as well as the trade routes to the Danube mouth at the Black Sea.

In the middle ages, the neighbors of Moldavia were Poland in the north, Hungary in the west, Wallachia and Ottoman Turks in the south, the latter of which were a constant threat, and the Tatars in the east, whom they had to defend the Dnestr border against. Moscow at that time was small and remote, as well as the Ukrainians.

In 1484, the Turkish sultan occupied Cetatea Alba and subsequently in 1538 (southern) Bessarabia. After the death of Prince Stephen the Great (1457-1504), Moldavia (and Wallachia) had to accept Turkish suzerainty, which was relieved finally only in 1878. During this time Moldavia frequently came between the three big powers of the region, Austria, Turkey and Russia. The latter had expanded into the steppes of today’s southern Ukraine east of the Dnestr only in the 17th century, where it fostered the colonization of the land. Nonetheless, the Turks from time to time attacked Russia and vice versa.

After having occupied all of Wallachia and Moldavia in the war against Turkey (1806-1812), the Russian Empire annexed the territory between Prut and Dnestr in 1812. These lands had no particular name before, they were simply part of the Moldavian Principality. Russia had to find a justification that allowed her not to withdraw her troops from this area. They employed a misleading name, stating that in the Treaty of Bucharest of 1812 it was not required to leave Bessarabia. Bessarabia, however, had only been the southern part of what is today known as Bessarabia, also called the Bugeac, but the Russians extended the name ”Bessarabia” to all the region between Prut and Dnestr, so that they could annex it. In fact, this region was the most fertile part of Moldavia, and even bigger than the rump-Moldavia remaining independent. 90% of the population were Romanians.

Under Tsar Nicholas I., the autonomy of Bessarabia was abolished. For any documents of the public life, the Russian language became dominant. Romanians had two speak and write in Russian in the administration, although Romanian could retain its status as an official language until 1854. With tsarist bureaucracy also came Russification.

The population of Bessarabia increased significantly from 250,000 to 580,000 people in the first 12 years of tsarist occupation, but this was mainly due to an influx of non-Romanian people. Ukrainians settled mostly in the northern and southern parts of Bessarabia, where they became preponderous (these areas were later under Stalin given to Ukraine). The percentage of Romanians fell significantly, especially in urban areas. In 1867 the schools ceased to teach in Romanian, and in 1871, church services were no longer held in Romanian, either. Except for some persons who opposed the tsarist regime, there were no mass deportations. The Russification affected mostly the cities, though, whereas the countryside suffered more from social problems and backwardness. Since 1874 also Romanians had to do military service, often somewhere far away in Russian, and came back Russianized. Cultural relations between Bessarabia and Romania were almost inexistent, as the Russian censorship prohibited the import of Romanian printed materials. Romanians in Bessarabia were thus subject to relentless Russification.
- FLOR solitaria on June 04, 2015 · at 2:48 am EST/EDT
  
  Ia zi bre moldovene, cand ai invatat tu asa bine engleza cu atata rusificare pe la voi ?
  
  [Tr: what States Moldovan living when you learned English so well with such Russification on you?]
  - Moldavian on June 04, 2015 · at 12:51 pm EST/EDT
    
    Esti cazut de pe luna ? Multa lume educata dupa 1990 vorbeste engleza in ziua de azi. Ce, rusii, nu vorbesc si ei engleza ? Sincer, nu prea inteleg ce rost avea o asemenea intrebare insinuatoare.
    
    [TR:
    You fell from the moon ? Many educated after 1990 speaks English, today. What the Russians, they do not speak English ? Honestly, not quite sure what the point such a question insinuates]
    - Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 04, 2015 · at 1:33 pm EST/EDT
      
      Moldavian and FLOR, you both write good English. Please show other readers the courtesy of keeping to English here.
      - FLOR solitaria on June 04, 2015 · at 8:29 pm EST/EDT
        
        @ K.K.
        Thank you for the compliment. It was just a test. He really is what he says he is, and if he wasn’t always very polite I’m sure it was due only to the pain other people’s comments caused him. I know how painful it can be when reading comments from people who pretend to be experts on a country they never set foot in but for which generations of your ancestors died fighting, and in which you live(d).
        
        Vineyard Moderator - K.K. on June 04, 2015 · at 10:41 pm EST/EDT
        
        We’ve debated this before: the neutral outsiders’ view is not all wrong, the insider’s view is fairly sure to be biased (so is a former opponent’s). Open polite discussion increases everyone’s knowledge. People said he’s trolling; but I could see him genuinely desperate to prove what he grew up “knowing” but never before had to prove (or question). Good to see you back and helping with this.
- Anonymous on June 04, 2015 · at 5:46 pm EST/EDT
  
  Moldavian:
  
  Bessarabia at that time (before 1000 A.D.) was mostly an unoccupied land
  
  That is not a believable assertion any more than the claim that the Carpathian basin was unoccupied at the same time until the Magyars showed up. Modern genetic analysis shows in the main population continuity over time and that post-Roman invaders are only a small percentage of the inhabitants of any area. The idea that the “Shepherds of the Romans” came down out of the Carpathians and found an uninhabited grassy plain is not true. They very likely found a sparse Slavic and Turkic population which they joined.
  
  The population of Bessarabia increased significantly from 250,000 to 580,000 people in the first 12 years of tsarist occupation, but this was mainly due to an influx of non-Romanian people.
  
  Because it was a nearly empty land that had been deicmated by the Turkish occupation! The Turks economically reserved Moldavia primarily as a grazing land for sheep and cattle – there were no significant cities and little intensive use of the land. The pattern of depopulation is no different than what happened to the Hungarian plain under Turkish occupation, or Banat, or Slavonia. All of these areas were densely settled in a hodge-podge manner after the Christian reconquest of 1700-1815 by a mix of ethnic groups from surrounding countries using improved modern drainage and farming techniques to create and exploit new arable land and the founding of new towns. Romanian speaking people were part of this influx and increase as were Russians, Ukrainians/Rusyns, Bulgars, Christian Turks, Jews, Armenians, and Germans.
  
  The percentage of Romanians fell significantly, especially in urban areas.
  
  That is impossible to know as there were no linguistic censuses prior to the 1840’s. The first linguistic censuses in the 1840’s show a continuity of population ratios right up to the present with relatively little variation.
  
  The reason for any fall in urban areas, of course, is that rapid urbanization generally takes place with an influx from surrounding rural areas of literate and skilled citizens. Romanian Moldavians were primiarly illiterate sheperds and herdsmen. The population influx creating the urban population and enlarging small towns to large cities would thus be in the main Slavs, Jews, and Germans, not Romanians.
  
  For all the ones promoting lies about the eastern half of Moldavia (Bessarabia) belonging to Russia, please read this if you have any ethics at all
  
  Well, if you have any ethics at all, I wonder if you will acknowledge the right of people to live in the houses they have right now regardless of religion and ethnicity, and the need for laws to protect their right to their native or chosen language, their religion, and their culture. You bring up many assertions from history all tending towards a conclusion you want people to draw that Slavs living anywhere in the former Moldavian SSR are illegal interlopers and colonists who should be deported “back” to their “native” States, even though the vast majority of them never lived anywhere else. You also seem to be pressing for an interpretation of legal inhabitation of people today based upon an asserted nationality of the first inhabitants of a region. Thus to you, Moldova belongs to Romanians because you assert that the medival Romanians entered an “empty” land and civilized it and that all other ethnicities are later interlopers who do not “belong”. This is the same form of arpatheid politics we’ve seen in the Baltics and elsewhere.
  
  The reason there was an armed uprising in Transnistria in 1990 is because Romanian Moldovans refused to honor the basic human rights of their Russian, Ukrainian, Bulgar, and Gauguz Turk neighbors, and respecting their culture and voice and political opinions about which country they wished to belong to. In your view, the Moldovans have a right as the majority to independence or union with Romania, but the Slavs, as a minority, do not have the right to maintain an existing union with Russia or Ukraine that existed in 1990. That is rank hypocrisy.
  
  The principle of self-determination goes both ways. The same principles that give Romanian Moldovans a right to govern their own affairs and set their own geopolitical destiny also give the Slavs of Moldova and the Gauguz a similar right that must be respected by the Moldovans. If the people on both sides of the Dnistr cannot find a middle ground to let them live together then they need to respect each other enough to go their own separate ways without trying to impose an unwanted fate on the other.
  - Moldavian on June 05, 2015 · at 12:06 am EST/EDT
    
    How many slavs lived in Moldavia for centuries based on your information ?
    And can you provide an explanation why the official language most spoken today is moldavian/romanian ?
    How far back in history should we go to claim a land as belonging to X or Y nation ?
    If tomorrow, 51% of population of Moldavia decides to follow a certain course for their country while 30% decides something else, what should be done ?
    If Chechenia or Karelia wants to break away form Russian Federation, would you apply the same standards as when Abkhazia decided to break away from Georgia ? What if other republics will have similar ideas at some point ?
    In 1918 the majority of Bessarabia decided they don’t want to part of the recently dead Russian Empire and joined their brothers from Romania (something that Russians called even today occupation by the Romanian Imperialists). But in 1940 the Soviet Union decided to take Bessarabia by force again (plus northern Bukovina as a show of strength and punishment). It was Soviet Uniion who started the war in that region first.
    
    The main reason for uprising in Transnistria was much more related to money than anything else. I proved with some information posted here. They had the biggest power plant giving 40% of the energy into economy of Moldova. Don’t you think it’s a nice asset to have and ask for whatever prices you want from the rest of the country in the right side of Nistru ?
    Look at who became some of the “de facto owners” of Transnistria through shady privatisations: two ex-military leaders and their families/friends.
    - Kat Kan on June 05, 2015 · at 2:59 am EST/EDT
      
      The main reason for uprising in Transnistria was much more related to money than anything else
      
      It has to go deeper than that. You had all those figures for ethnic origins and languages. Now 100 or 200 years earlier doesn’t matter (except if people have grown up to hold resentments about it, which often happens).
      
      But for now, for today, is the reality the same as the people of Donbass have. Their area has a lot of the industry (Transnistria and Donbas both), they work hard in it, their area produces more than its share of the goods/income/taxes of the country — and instead of being appreciated, they are looked down on or discriminated against, for being a different ethnic origin or language. Which is not their fault.
      
      When an area that makes 20 or 35% of a state’s income, but gets less than their share (on headcount) of money spent on services, on the grounds that they’re not good enough to deserve as much as the others… when they get the tiniest houses and never repaired because “they’re just miners”, when the schools are not repaired either, because they (“insert ethnjc group” ) are too dumb to educate anyway …. that kind of attitude, or get told they can’t speak their own language because … well just because the high and mighty ones say so…. you can see they think they’d be better off keeping all the production to build a decent life for themselves with it.
      
      All this trouble is caused by the idea that every ethnic group must have its own country. When we know that is impossible in Europe, where everyone is so mixed, back sand forth. So you get a country that has maybe 85% roughly the same people, but they treat the other 15% like dirt just for not being the same as them
      
      It does not matter what bad things were done by, say, Russians in the past. That was done by the system, the Monarchy or Empire or Soviet dictatorship, not by the will of the individuals. Every monarchy and empire and dictatorship did the same and still do.
      
      People who are ethnic Russians today come from families that have lived there for 3 or 5 or 8 generations. It is their home. It’s not fair to discriminate against them just because their great great great grandfather was maybe sent there to work for the emperor of the day. It’s not their fault and they can’t undo it.
    - Andrew on June 05, 2015 · at 5:39 pm EST/EDT
      
      Moldavian:
      
      How many slavs lived in Moldavia for centuries
      
      Apparently 1/3 of the population.
      
      And can you provide an explanation why the official language most spoken today is moldavian/romanian?
      
      Because being the rural population they had more children, as normally happens between rural and urban people.
      
      How far back in history should we go to claim a land as belonging to X or Y nation
      
      Land belongs to those who live in it. History is irrelevant. The people living today govern and make claims, not the dead in graveyards.
      
      If tomorrow, 51% of population of Moldavia decides to follow a certain course for their country while 30% decides something else, what should be done
      
      Over something as significant as a change in sovereignty with independence vs. annexation, peaceable people should try to make an equitable split of the country that would allow the other to go their seperate way with a minimum of dislocation and disgruntlement. I don’t claim this would be easy, but everyone would have been better off in 1990-1992 sitting down at a negotiating table and redrawing the boundaries of the country so that Bender, much of Transnistria and Gauguzia could have joined Budjak and Odessa and become an autonomous region or its own statelet or an exclave of Russia
      
      If Chechenia or Karelia wants to break away form Russian Federation, would you apply the same standards as when Abkhazia decided to break away from Georgia ? What if other republics will have similar ideas at some point ?
      
      Has there ever been a plebescite or similar to indicate even a small minortiy wishes to do so? Transnistria has had many of them (as did Donbass and Crimea) and it and Gauguzia has self-organized an independent government. Sure, if there was some real movement in this way.
      - Moldavian on June 05, 2015 · at 6:05 pm EST/EDT
        
        Based on your judgement about population with majority at a certain moment being the one with rights, I conclude that is smarter to perform a complete genocide of the natives after an war of occupation. This way you can repopulate occupied lands and claim to be yours forever. Wait, until a smarter and more powerful nation comes and does the same to you. This leads most of the debate towards concluding who is stronger and mightier (or finds stronger allies). Maybe this is why Ukrainians are asking Americans for help today ? Who knows, maybe one day they will genocide Russians from Moscow and replace them with poles, lithuanians and ruthenians. From that moment onward, they have all the rights to claim Moscow as being theirs.
        
        Yesterday I wrote a long post with links about the population in this area around 1600. It got lost somehow and don’t have time to re-write again, but I will post some links if you bother to learn a bit more. I will just mention briefly to find out where was the Khanate of Crimea in which it was impossible to have slavs, since Tatars killed or kidnapped them for centuries to be sold in Istambul.
        
        Check these two major events preventing the fall of the Polish-Lithuanian Kingdom and the expansion of Muscovite Empire (Tsarist Empire). Maybe you will get an idea how northern Russians arrive there after 16-17tth century. And maybe you will discover what areas were populated by Tatars.
        
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_the_Brave
        
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmelnytsky_Uprising
        
        http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Khanate
        
        Moldavian on June 05, 2015 · at 6:27 pm EST/EDT
        
        Sorry Andrew, I did a typing error in the post above. I meant 2 major events PREDATING the fall of Polish-Lithuanian Kingdom (and the Crimean Khanate) followed by the expansion of Muscovy Kingdom.
        I also added information about the first brief unification of all population speaking the same romanian language in 1600. Check the maps ….
Anonymous on June 02, 2015 · at 11:06 pm EST/EDT

“Not to mention that there is no support for anything like that in Russia herself.” In an effort to avoid war, we do not escape this. But the war goes on,Aglozionist will not stop with giggly Lavrovs smiles.
Josh on June 03, 2015 · at 5:42 am EST/EDT

As far as international law goes, I don’t see this being much different than 2008.

Of course it’s not directly on Russia’s border so that would make things logistically trickier, but troops could still be brought in by air.

I seem to remember the Saker discussing a while back how Crimea would serve as a big unsinkable aircraft carrier for Russia – enabling the latter to dominate the Black Sea region and project power into the Balkans and beyond…

But now Russia can’t even carry out operations a short distance from the Black Sea to protect her citizens?

Seems this “power-projection” is rather useless if Russia can’t actually use it when it’s very much needed.
- Cicero on June 03, 2015 · at 5:21 pm EST/EDT
  
  The Crimea was a white elephant from the moment the Russian government made no effort to secure even a tiny land bridge with Donetsk (and by extension Russia Proper). It is a very rich and strategically important piece of land, but it does not function in a vacuum. It needs free and secure access to the mainland, and no suspension bridge to Rostov Oblast will fully ameliorate that (if the bridge can even be safely built given the current conflict raging to the north).
  
  Also, calling Crimea an ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier’ is an exaggeration of its defensibility. The peninsula is a tough nut to crack, but the Russians first assaulted it successfully back in the campaigns of Marshal Munnich in the 1730’s, and they and other nations have repeated that feat nearly half a dozen times in the following centuries. Russia’s nuclear weapons are the ultimate deterrent to invasion, as they were before Maidan.
  
  This ‘nuanced’ approach to the situation in Ukraine will cost Russia dearly if the people and the government don’t wake up. You don’t get brownie points for being ‘anti-imperialist’ and your enemies won’t become weaker because you choose to avoid conflict. The war has already been raging for a year, and Donbass has paid a heavy price for that. Clausewitz’s maxim is not a pleasant truth, but it is a truth in the realm of International Relations. In another year or so, if Russia’s position remains unchanged, they might come to curse their previous inactivity.
Cassandra on June 03, 2015 · at 11:35 pm EST/EDT

The playbook hasn’t changed.

Feb. 11/1961 — excerpt from a Top Secret memo from Arthur Schlesinger, Jr. to John Kennedy

“Would it not be possible to induce Castro to take offensive action first? He has already launched expeditions against Panama and against the Dominican Republic. One can conceive a black operation in, say, Haiti which might in time lure Castro into sending a few boatloads of men on to a Haitian beach in what could be portrayed as an effort to overthrow the Haitian regime. If only Castro could be induced to commit an offensive act, then the moral issue would be clouded, and the anti-US campaign would be hobbled from the start.”

This is from Document 43, FRUS X (Foreign Relations of the United States, Book 10), a special history project of the State Department Historian which unearthed every document he could find on the documents in and around the Cuban Crisis. His staff came across this little charmer while searching the archives of the Schlesinger memorial library.

Google “FRUS X”
Cassandra on June 03, 2015 · at 11:39 pm EST/EDT

“For one thing, Putin was not elected to save the world, not even Syria, the Donbass or the TMR. Putin was elected first and foremost to stand up for the interests of the Russian people from and in Russia.”

I don’t know about the election, but all the polling I’ve seen with details puts “foreign policy” as the number one reason for a favourable rating of Putin.

And isn’t it exactly people “from Russia” whose interests are at stake?
- Julian on June 04, 2015 · at 9:16 am EST/EDT
  
  Exactly right. Sacrificing TMR or Syria would be a huge strategic mistake, as would losing Greece & Macedonia, or Turkey even, in the coming months.
Julian on June 04, 2015 · at 9:08 am EST/EDT

The timeline is China & IMF/SDR.

The simple solution would be to insert Chinese peacekeepers into TMR forthwith. If China is telling Russia no intervention until we’re fully accepted as an IMF SDR Reserve country – ie, we want no geopolitical conflicts this year until the IMF SDR situation is sorted out – Russia MUST ask for some quid pro quo.

Ok, if we have to wait around for six months for your sake, you can give us some insurance to ensure the West doesn’t provoke yet more conflict. 20,000 Chinese peacekeepers in TMR would make the UkroNazis think twice wouldn’t you think?
- Kat Kan on June 04, 2015 · at 9:30 am EST/EDT
  
  Yes, they can play in tandem.
  
  But how do the Chinese get in? Ukraine is trying to blockade entry to the area. If they don’t let existing peacekeepers rotate or get supplies, will they let in a new contingent?
  
  If it comes to war, that tiny country has a fighting force of at least 20,000 all well trained and well equipped. They only have Soviet equipment but they’ve kept it in good condition. They would be every bit as good as NAF are now, a formidable force against the forced conscripts that Ukraine or Moldova can come up with. They have aviation too (helicopters).
  
  We’ll know in a week or two what Russia wants to do, when the next supplies are due to go in.
  - Erebus on June 05, 2015 · at 7:31 am EST/EDT
    
    They also have 50,000 well trained reservists.
    According to Major General Kravstov, the first 2 divisions could be formed within a week.
    http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/06/transnistria-has-50-thousand-reservists.html
Another one on June 04, 2015 · at 6:31 pm EST/EDT

Besides immediate change in Odessa or Kiev, there is one very sad option:
1. Wait until population suffers (if so)
2. Negotiate help with the blockading countries, if they deny:
3. Help anyway with unarmed air lift or trucks with international personnel, if they attack:
4. Broadcast pictures of destroyed humanitarian transport / airlift, if there is humanitarian catastrophe:
5. Let transnistrians find refuge in Russia (there are more Ukrainians in Russia now than whole Transnistria)
6. Wait until Kiev or Greece collapses or US presidential elections (let US citizens concentrate on internal matters, no war threat)
7. Negotiate again, to get the Transnistrians back to their homes
Antikapitalista on June 05, 2015 · at 7:30 am EST/EDT

Not really, dear Saker,

Russia would have a much stronger case here; it could in principle do the same as in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Recognizing Transnitria would be a good starting point, on the basis of the 2006 referendum.
After all, it would be something that the Transnitrians had long desired.

Peaceful airlifts are quite possible. Should these peaceful humanitarian convoys be attacked, Russia could respond to “neutralize the threat”.

Mind you, the recognition of Transnitria is something that has been in serious consideration in Russia for quite a long time.

Watch out for the announced imminent meeting of the Federation Council of the Russian Federation!