Assuming the ceasefire holds, it is now time to assess the preliminary results of the Israeli attack on Gaza, and I would score this one as a definite victory for Hamas. Why?
Because it is pretty clear that the IDF was deterred from entering into Gaza whereas the usual orgy of violence unleashed by the Israelis on the Gaza Strip did not deter Palestinians at all. It is also pretty clear that the Israelis were the ones who wanted a ceasefire whereas Hamas could have kept going, all for the same reason: there was nothing more left worth destroying in Gaza.
Bottom line: if anything, that pompous imbecile Netanyahu actually substantially weakened the deterrent capability of the Israeli military with the operation “Pillar of Defense”.
Think of it this way: according to Time magazine, as of the 19 of November the IDF had launched more than 1,350 air, tank, and warship strikes against targets in the Gaza Strip (the actual figure will be substantially larger, of course). And yet, even after such an intensive fire preparation of the battlefield, the IDF did not dare enter Gaza. This is frankly pathetic and makes me wonder if the IDF is still capable of *any* real military operation (shooting unarmed civilians does not qualify). This dismal performance is even more pitiful when you consider the rather lame performance of Hamas.
Having promised to open the “Gates of Hell” Hamas delivered a missile assault which could be compared to the effect of a wet firecracker. And yet, in all their misfortunes, the Palestinians are blessed to have paranoid cowards like the Israelis as their oppressors: the otherwise totally useless Qasssem missiles are still good enough to scare a population suffering from a form of psychosis Gilad Atzmon calls “pre-traumatic stress disorder“.
The real deterrent capability of Hamas lies, of course, not in the Qassem missile, but in its foot soldiers which would have met any Israeli incursion inside Gaza with an intense combination of anti-tank fire, snipers, and highly mobile assault groups. But the Israelis do not have what it takes for that kind of fight.
Operation “Pillar of Defense” pitted Israeli hardware against Palestinian morale, and that the latter clearly came out on top.
The Saker
Saker Message:
Agreed. The Israelis are not prepared to take the casualties necessary to win a conventional conflict against a determined enemy and this is their Achilles heel.
Archdruid Report on how Israel is most likely doomed once the US Empire is no longer there to prop it up and how their nukes won’t save them
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2012/11/in-twilight-of-empires.html
Dear Saker,
Your overall analysis is correct, but the premise is flawed. HAMAS was dragged into the conflict… Hamas did not want to fight that war, since Hamas had agreed to the visiting Qatari Sheikh recently, that they would accept to block any missile firing on Israel, in return for a 400 Million USD infusion into Gaza by Qatar…It is basically the Islamic JIHAD organization that really took the fight to the Israelis by firing most missiles and targeting Tel Aviv, Birsheba etc. and widening the conflict…Following that bold move by Islamic JIHAD, Hamas was compelled to get into the fight, for fear of loosing any credibility left on the street for them…Hence they joined the fight, and now are claiming Victory…Islamic JIHAD is of course fully funded and armed by IRAN…
Best,
Joe
Zionists do not like to lose. The 2006 invasion of Lebanon made them look much, much weaker. I believe they were especially rabid during the 2008 Gaza war to send the message that despite the 2006 debacle they are still very dangerous fiends.
If the general consensus is that Israel lost this latest conflict then WATCH OUT! Tomorrow’s headlines may tell of a surprise Blitzkrieg.
@Joe: I did not say that Hamas initiated the conflict. In fact, did it not begin by the murder of Ahmed Jabari? Then Israel initiated it. Or are you saying that Hamas did not initiate the Palestinian retaliation for that murder but that Islamic Jihad did, and that Hamas had to follow? I am not sure I understand, could you please clarify?
Also, what is the position of Islamic Jihad on the current war in Syria?
Thanks and kind regards,
The Saker
I had an argument with an Israel supporter back in 2009 after Operation Cast Lead and I tried to convince them that at some point America would decline and the military balance of power would swing to the East. She claimed that if necessary the Israelis would use their nuclear weapons and to use the classic trope bring down the temple on their heads. I’ve heard this expression used elsewhere.
I don’t believe this is anything more than a bluff. If Israel was losing a conventional war and was faced with invasion it might threaten to nuke an Arab city but all the Arab commander would have to do would be to say if you commit genocide against one of our cities I will not be responsible for what my men do to your women when Tel Aviv falls. Alternatively you can surrender now and I will guarantee their safety. In such circumstances the Israelis would have to be psychotic to use their nukes.
Also the world reaction to an Israeli nuclear strike would seriously endanger the safety of Jews everywhere in the disapora and they must know that.
In the legend of Samson he brought the temple down on his own head to destroy his enemies but he didn’t sacrifice any Jewish life except his own. That is very different from bringing the temple down on your whole people including your children and grandchildren.
The existence of Israel’s nuclear arsenal, mind you, makes it unlikely that the sort of final Arab assault beloved of American fundamentalist apocalypse-mongers will happen at any point in the near to middle future. A far more likely scenario, as America’s empire enters its twilight, would see economic and political crisis in Israel spiraling out of control as moderate and extremist factions scramble for control of a dwindling stock of wealth and resources, and everyone who has the resources and common sense to flee the country gets out.
Bottom line is that Israel should make a compromise peace with the Palestinians while the balance of power is overwhelmingly in their favour but their racism and superiority complex makes it very unlikely this will happen in time to save them from Nemesis.
It goes without saying that a peaceful solution is what we must all hope for as with South Africa but I’m not optimistic. Either way I belive Zionist Israel will be consigned to the history books like Crusader Outremer was in its time. Let’s hope the new Saladin when he appears will be able to be magnanimous.
@Robert:If Israel was losing a conventional war and was faced with invasion it might threaten to nuke an Arab city but all the Arab commander would have to do would be to say if you commit genocide against one of our cities I will not be responsible for what my men do to your women when Tel Aviv falls. Alternatively you can surrender now and I will guarantee their safety.
You are absolutely correct, spot on!! Due to its size and lack of strategic depth, Israel really cannot use its nukes in a tactical strike to defeat attacking enemy forces. But neither can Israel use its nuke as a strategic deterrent because of your argument above. Yes, I have also always believed that Israeli nukes are useless and that their sole purpose is as a psychotherapeutic tool for the paranoid and “pre-traumatic stress disordered” Israelis.
Bottom line is that Israel should make a compromise peace with the Palestinians while the balance of power is overwhelmingly in their favour but their racism and superiority complex makes it very unlikely this will happen in time to save them from Nemesis.
You and I completely agree on this. As I always say, there is no such thing as a smart racist. Racism really blinds you to reality and reality eventually always comes back to bite you in the ass, with a vengeance…
Dear Saker,
You are quite right about the assassination of Jaabari being the trigger for the War… No question about that. But what I am saying is that Hamas was not willing to go out on a limb all the way in the response…, because of their “promise” to the Qataris that I mentioned above. Islamic Jihad and other factions close to Iran are the ones who basically forced Hamas to join the ranks and push forward with a barrage of daily missiles…, and in my view they all sensed at some point early on that Nutsenyahu was hesitating and being his cowardly self…so they got more and more excited about keeping their pressure up on the Israelis, and for now, it seems like it payed off…
Best,
Joe
IJ takes its inspiration from the Islamic Revolution in Iran, they are one of the few Sunni groups who recognize the Islamic leadership based in Iran… As such their political viewpoint usually are aligned with that of IRI… See link for info on their position on Syria. The conflict was a much bigger win for IJ than for Hamas.
http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/features/interview-with-the-leader-of-palestinian-islamic-jihad-in-lebanon_4082
My dream scenario would be if Saudi Arabia had a revolution and ended up creating an Islamic Republic of Arabia modelled on Iranian democracy and with tolerance and respect for the Shia minority just as Iran respects its Jewish minority and indeed has a Jewish seat reserved in the Iranian parliament.
two important assessments:
http://resistance-episteme.tumblr.com/post/36282350786/why-islamic-jihad-is-the-new-hizbullah
and
http://resistance-episteme.tumblr.com/post/36237860489/hamas-and-islamic-jihad-after-the-cease-fire-a-new
@Anonymous20:30: very interesting stuff indeed, interesting enough to warrant a full post. I shall do that immediately. Thanks
The Saker