I just heard that on the news: (in no specific order, as they are coming in)
Blinken is in Kiev and said that the US will give no written guarantees of ANY kind and if Russia attacks the Ukraine, the US will cripple Russia.
The Russians said that the US is preparing a false flag in the Ukraine. The US accused Russia of the same.
The President of Iran is in Moscow and offered Putin to unite against the collective West.
Russia has sent forces to Belarus for training. These forces will include several combined arms brigades and a full regiment of Su-35S. The date for the exercises is Feb 10th.
Lukashenko welcomed back his peacekeepers with a very good speech explaining that Belarus and Russia will always come to each other’s aide.
“Alternative information” RT-style
RT is still posting shit like this (see photo).
The legacy corporate ziocon media is hammering the “Russia is about to invade” 24/7 in the US and EU.
The US is introducing even more sanctions. At least 2 versions of “sanctions from hell” are on “Biden’s” desk.
The EU is threatening to shut down Russia from NS2.
Josep Borrell called Putin a “wolf”. That is the current level of EU “diplomacy”…
US politicians and officials threaten to disconnect Russia off the SWIFT (again).
Psaki claims that Russia will evacuate its diplomatic personnel from Kiev in late January early February.
In the Ukraine, Poroshenko seems to have prevailed over “Ze”: he was not arrested or confined to home. Poroshenko is now threatening to take over power in a new Maidan.
The US and the UK are delivering more weapons to Banderastan.
I will keep updating this post as more news come in. Please come back regularly to check for updates.
Andrei
UPDATES:
There are reports that the Ukie air defenses are on full alert and civilian traffic is being rerouted. This map seems to confirm it (see image)
The US will add 300 (some say 200) million dollars in military aid to the Ukraine. Militarily this is irrelevant, most will be stolen anyway, but it eggs on the Ukies to attack.
Blinken says he will not give anything in writing to Lavrov whom he (Blinken) says he will meet in Geneva on Friday.
LDNR officials have declared that their intelligence service has confirmed that Urkonazi special forces, trained and prepared by the UK, are preparing terrorist attacks in the LDNR. An LDNR military spokesman said that the Urkonazis have six terrorist groups ready to attack the civilian infrastructure (water, energy, transportation, chemical plants, etc.) in the LDNR. The point would be to create chaos and fear, making the defense of the LDNR for the LDNR forces much harder.
I am listening to a statement by Bliken. He sure sounds to me like he is preparing the public opinion for a fullscale war in the Ukraine.
Both the US and UK said that their forces would not fight in the Ukraine under any circumstances. Looks like the Anglos are ready to fight Russia down to the last living Ukrainian.
I am listening to Russian experts on the Runet and most of them are twisting their finger by their temple and saying the US Americans are batshit crazy and that they are putting the entire world economy at risk of chaos. They are saying that the US insanity will have consequences which will be huge for the entire planet.
Russian officials are also saying that if the US introduces real sanctions, this will mean a total break in diplomatic relation between Russia and the collective West.
Here is a Sputnik news headline: “Biden Says Putin Has Never Seen Sanctions Like the Ones US Preparing Now Over Ukraine“. Quote: “Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does – it’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and what not to do, but if they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the force amassed on the border it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine,” Biden said, adding that Russia has overwhelming superiority over Ukraine”
Wait! What?? So a “minor incursion” is fine??????????
Que Dios nos encuentre confesados!
Anyone who is surprised by any of this, please raise your hand. Anyone?
Didn’t think so.
And now for the interesting part — Russia’s response to these further Western provocations.
Surprised? No. Disappointed? Not really. Everything just fits with the resistance motto “west is the disease.”
Ishkabibble
No, nobody is really surprised by these developments. Biden – after the greatest election steal in US history – was not placed in the White House to promote peace, but aggression. American finances are in a mess, and the bankers require a wider war to boost the economy. However,as I have written before, analysts are stating that this little trick cannot work any more due to the enormous domestic and foreign debts of the US, due to the de-industrialization of the US and the fact that the dollar is printed backed by nothing except the US military.
Sanctions against Russia ? Blinken is waiving an empty gun. The first sanctions were introduced in 2014 and led to Russia boosting it’s infrastructure. Additional sanctions will lead to a break in political and economic relations between Russia, the US and the EU. The biggest loser will be the EU, which perhaps is the perfidious intention of Washington DC, forcing Europe to get closer to the US. After sanctions were introduced in 2014, the EU lost 100 billion euros in trade by the second half of 2016.
The EU threatening Russia with cancellation of the NS2 gas pipeline ? Laughable nonsense. EU countries cannot function without Russian energy, which Russia can always divert to China and others. Imagine if Russia cut off all energy supplies to Western Europe.
Russia being threatened with expulsion from SWIFT ? Russia and China have prepared their own versions of SWIFT. And so on.
What is dangerous here is the impression that Washington DC has lost all sense of reality, using old foreign policy plans vis a vis Russia. It is still hoping to destabilize and break up Russia, so the country could be plundered. It wont work. However, Washington DC refuses to accept reality.
Finally, the question which needs to be asked is if Ukraine will launch an attack against the Donbass. The unfortunate impression is that it will, being pressurized by the US, EU, NATO and domestic neo-Nazis. What the overall result will be remains to be seen, bearing in mind Ukraine has a conscript army whose moral is questionable. Any additional war by impoverished Ukraine may well see the country break up into three parts, as prophesied by analysts.
At the very start of the shooting by Ukrainian forces, Russia should broadcast an offer of clemency for any Ukie troops that throw down their weapons and surrender to RF forces. The object is not to kill these people who should know that theirs is a lost cause. Could Washington withstand the optics of hundreds of thousands of Ukie conscripts being given better care than afforded by their own tyrants? Then just bomb the hell out of the NATO bases and weapons depots. Kill all the vermin there.
This already happened in recent conflicts. The Ukrainian soldiers were even encouraged by their families to flee into Russia at the first opportunity during a conflict and many truckloads did just that…fine…they saved themselves and many decided to stay in Russia permanently or temporarily until the situation quietens down…So what does this matter to the USA or UK? withstand the optics?? do they care? A country depleted of population is that much easier to plunder…
I agree with your statement that NATO troops should be attacked within the Ukraine. Russia is far too kind…they will assemble buses and allow them to get to the nearest airport…
@BF: “Washington DC has lost all sense of reality, using old foreign policy plans”
Not only Washington but the entire “Western” leadership is set in old plans: gerontocracy reinforced with obsequious nepotism in the governing classes.
I think the Saker’s last update confirms the state of the collective West:
“….Quote: “Russia will be held accountable if it invades and it depends on what it does – it’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and then we end up having to fight about what to do and what not to do, but if they actually do what they’re capable of doing with the force amassed on the border it is going to be a disaster for Russia if they further invade Ukraine,”
It was interesting that yesterday at the OSCE Konstantin Gavrilov said:
“There arrives a moment of truth when the West either accepts our proposals or other ways will be found to safeguard Russia’s security,” the head of the Russian delegation at the Vienna Negotiations on Military Security and Arms Control…. “I am convinced that with goodwill and a willingness to compromise in any situation, it is possible to find a way out to mutually acceptable solutions. We are running out of time. The countdown begins.”
https://tass.com/politics/1390505
He continued with another important point that “…the NATO actions had resulted in fragmentation of the pan-European space and inflicted huge damage to the authority of the OSCE, which has turned into a hostage of the narrow agenda of the “collective West.”
“In these circumstances, the Russian delegation will henceforth be coming up at the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation with just the issues that meet its own national interests, the head of the Russian delegation stressed”.
You are so deadly right in everything you write about the situation between the stupid west and Russia.thanks a lot!!
“Russia being threatened with expulsion from SWIFT ? Russia and China have prepared their own versions of SWIFT.”
Is this function fully functional? Has it been tested? Is it used?
Not really, it would be painful. But EU/US would be worst off in the end.
President Joe Biden’s Wednesday press conference.
Biden think Putin is not seeking “a full-blown war,” but believe he is looking for some type of confrontation.
He stated that the White House is still at the stage of ‘guess work’:
Biden said: “My guess is he will move in. He will have to do something.”
Biden made a distinction between a “minor incursion” and full-on “Russian invasion”
Biden said a “minor incursion” would elicit a lesser response than a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Regarding US sanctions Biden said:
“It depends on what Putin does, and to what extent we’ll get total unity in NATO.”
“It’s very important that we keep everyone in NATO on the same page.
That’s what I’m spending a lot of time doing.
There are differences in NATO as to what countries are willing to do, depending on what happens.”
And there you have it: NATO is fracturing.
Next comes Macron: Monsiur Putin we must talk. S’il Vous Plait
To save NATO from total fracture Macron will lift up the NATO Banner and make it the military arm of the 4th Reich (EU).
Be careful with the words of this hyena that is always showing its teeth on television. These words from Biden were calculated, a geopolitical move. Nobody says the obvious. Europe and North America and South America are Russophobic, with the exception of resistant Argentina. What does Biden mean by small incursion? What’s behind it?
I don´t trust anything Biden says.
However, he spilled the beans that he is using a lot of time to find unity in NATO.
That turns the unity statements coming from Psaki, Blinken, Stoltenberg, and The EU into pure Propaganda.
I don´t know what Biden means by smaller incursion.
But I suspect that it means a Russian retaliation against Ukrainian attack on Eastern Ukraine.
Neither Britain, nor USA will send soldiers to fight against Russia in Ukraine.
If there i no unity in NATO i suspect that we will not see Nordic or western European soldiers in Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Government is left baffled by the words of Biden.
You just forgot Venezuela, Cuba, Bolivia, and Nicaragua, plus most of the people in Ecuador, and not less than probably 75% of the population of Mexico: all of them are not only NOT Russophobic, but admirers of Russia (and China), and entertain warm feelings toward Iran, too. The Axis of Resistance against the Imperialist West is well-liked by many Latin Americans. Among Chileans, I hazard no less than half the population (they just elected a leftist president) is on Russia’s side, not the much despised “Yanquis”. Ditto for Peru, which also just elected a leftist president.
O Brasil ama Vladimir Putin que é o Maior Líder do Mundo.
Os brasileiros amam a Rússia.
E acompanham com grande interesse e perplexidade as notícias sobre a Soberania da Rússia e sobre os Golpes e Guerras do Governo Corrupto e Assassino dos EUA.
Glória Eterna à Eterna Rússia!
Paz de Cristo!
Yandex translation. Mod:
Brazil loves Vladimir Putin who is the World’s Greatest Leader. Brazilians love Russia. And they follow with great interest and perplexity the news about the Sovereignty of Russia and on the Coups and Wars of the Corrupt and Murderous Government of the United States. Eternal Glory to Eternal Russia! Peace of Christ!
Are you South American? If not, it’d be a good idea not to talk on behalf of people you don’t know much about. Peru has had a long and strong relationship -especially military one- with the Soviet Union and Russia. Most of Peru’s military hardware is from Russia. Argentina is a new arrival in the arena of relations with Russia. Argentina was always a good western vassal, and they remained so even after the Malvinas war. That has changed with the Kirchners and Fernandez, especially.
What are the three parts? Can you point to a map of such a break? And an explanation of why that particular break? Many thanks.
The political center of Europe is located in Brussels.
When I write Central European Alliance I mean the Nations once under the Carolingian Empire.
Today, the EU.
The Central European Alliance (EU) is planing to erect an EU Army.
The NATO headquarter is already located in Brussels, and easy to take over for the EU.
However, this will be the greatest fear of Nordic Nations as it will be a resurrection of the 4th Reich.
The Nordic Nations then may form a Nordic Alliance of Iceland, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, and Finland.
Estonia and Latvia will likely join the Nordic Alliance.
Special for all the Nordic Nations is that they have decided to never have nuclear weapons in time of peace.
The British imperial Alliance is already formed in AUKUS, by USA, Canada, Britain, and Australia.
Ukraine, Poland, and Lithuania may align with the Central European neighbors.
Or they may form an Intermarium alliance in between Russia and Western Europe.
vera
The three parts are as follows:
1) Western Ukraine, the former Galicia of the Astro-Hungarian Empire, where you have mixed blood, the population being made up of Slavic Ukrainians, Poles, Hungarians, Romanians, Balts and Germans. It’s Western Ukraine which provides the bulk of Ukrainian neo-Nazis.
2) Eastern Ukraine, which was incorporated into Ukraine after World War One, when the country was created. The land was always part of Russia, made up of Russians. Eastern Ukraine would probably incorporate the entire Black Sea coast of Ukraine.
3) Central Ukraine, centered around Kiev. It’s existence would be limited, in the end screaming to become part of Russia once more.
There is a peculiar mafia mindset that actually thinks that there is respectability in threats, killing and mayhem.
Most of us in Western Europe are so sick and tired of the Americans that we would happily see their elites put through Nuremberg 2.0.
Today, it was announced that ‘US purchasers’ of a UK EPL football club miraculously didn’t have the funds to complete the purchase, so the club would have to hand over to its new robber baron owners the TV revenues which are supposed to be used to pay players, buy players and invest in club infrastructure. Instead, players may be sold so that the new vulture capitalists can fulfil their obligations. Apparently, the basic due diligence required to prove that these men were ‘fit and proper people to own a football club’ i.e. they had the funds they claimed to have to purchase the club, wasn’t done. That in itself should be an offence for which the entire Board of the EPL should be sued into oblivion….with the proviso that no American can ever benefit from such events, since they are the criminals here…..
In my view those owners should be sanctioned, banned for life from the UK and told to sell up or else.
But because the USA think that they can be criminals everywhere, they may think that this is normal behaviour.
The big question is this: Why is the West repeating the “Russia is going invade Ukraine” bullshit 24/7? What do they have up their sleeve, if anything?
I personally believe that the Ukies plan to attack the LDNR to force a Russian counterattack.
In my mind, that is the most likely scenario.
I am very confident that LDNR, Russian and Belarusian forces are ready.
I am horrified by the idea of a large scale war, but I have to say that Russia is WAAAAAAAAAAAAY better prepared than the US or EU (nevermind the Banderistas).
Isn’t this a replay of the same operation back in the spring? Why would they think this one will work any better than the last attempt? Is there some new angle?
The USA are sinking
The EU is sinking
The Ukraine is sinking
here are all the reasons they need to star a war, especially a war down to the last Ukrainian…
It makes sense for the US and EU to start a war in order to deflect public scrutiny of failed internal policies. It is not clear to me why Ukraine would be willing to go along with this as they will be the ones to pay the price. I don’t see how losing a major conflict with Russia would benefit the Ukraine leadership (obviously it doesn’t benefit the average Ukrainian). I am missing something here.
I agree, and I have a feeling Russia has something quite different in mind.
Same to me.
The united West seems to be begging on its knees for an invasion.
Would not make to much sense for the RF to fulfill this wish. Nothing to gain.
I personally would think of:
– closure of Embassies of NATO member states – let alone the US embassy open with some dozen employees (and maybe one embassy for the EU)
– closure of the Russian airspace for all NATO member states airlines – all others (China, Japan etc will keep their slots / rights)
– End of any kind of oil exports to the USA
– End of all kind of rocket engines export to the USA
– Minimizing kali fertilizers exports to the – guess it – NATO member states. But not to China, Japan ……
– Iskanders in Kaliningrad – already there – Belarus – and Crimea.
– Extensions to the Syrian bases
– Payments only in rubles from now on
– Have I mentioned titanium? …..
Something like that …. Step by step.
Russia is not in a hurry in this case as long as it can protect the population of the LDNR.
Economic pressure on the West would be tremendous.
If possible – start of the Nicaragua canal. Together with Nicaragua, Cuba, China. Would be a real nice move and if done: would make the world a better place.
Something like that would be much smarter than an invasion of country 404.
That simply does not make sense.
Just my 2Cent
Indeed. My preference, too, and I wonder why Russia does not take the initiative and start by closing her airspace to the collective West. Let them start paying for their incalculable perfidy. At some point maybe some military moves are in order, if for no better reason than showing Washington and its NATO scoundrels what they are up against, and bloodying the noses of some disgusting international criminals.
Since last April I’ve been keeping my eyes on the Kerch Strait Bridge. BTW, is it still open? If it is, I’ll be interested to see if it remains that way in the near-future of rapidly increasing local temperature.
It is open, and there are no problems there.
also
it is very VERY well defended
don’t worry too much about that bridge.
Yes, probably during the games in China…
A próxima noite sem Lua…
É típico em grandes ataques militares.
Google translation,MOD:
The next moonless night…
It is typical in large military attacks.
Putin should stay in Moscow during the Olympics. Send another high ranking representative?
I think the big calibre weapon deconfliction zone between the rebels and the Ukrainian army is 30km wide. That means that any fighting within the zone would mainly be infantry without fire support. Given that Russia undoubtedly gets a copy of Ukraine’s military plans within 10-minutes of the close of the Ukrainian army’s morning staff meeting, it can easily position LDNR forces to block and encircle any Ukrainian advance.
If Ukraine’s army enters the zone with large weapons, then I’m guessing that the weapons will be broken metal once they’ve advanced far enough in to the zone to make it clear to the world that they didn’t accidentally take a wrong turn because they were using Apple Maps. That said, it’d be a brave Ukrainian soldier who manned that equipment in the deconfliction zone, and I don’t get the sense that morale is high enough for that.
In 2015, the “Minsk Agreement” obliged the Ukraine army to withdraw large-caliber artillery from the conflict zone and to put its heavy weapons under OSCE supervision. But that never happened. The complicity of OSCE with Ukie violations are well documented and OSCE is fully discredited. Once I was going to send an email of complaint to OSCE but I found the man who would receive it, was a Ukie with Canadian citizenship. Can’t figure out how anyone from North America got a high-level post with OSCE, but the Ukie connection stuck out like a red flag. Anyway, we might hope that in 2022, the Russians would informally step in to silence the big guns the OSCE was supposed to keep out of the conflict zone. I’m thinking of large-enough quantities of 203mm shells for DNR and LDNR forces, and the same superb artillery spotting as in 2014/2015.
Or maybe the DNR and LDNR defense forces will get the coordinates for the Ukie control rooms so their targets would be the higher ranking officers.
I agree. But then what? Russia will counterattack, Western media will be hysterical, West will come up with more sanction which will hurt Europe more than Russia and in Eastern Europe will be build a new iron courtain. Is there what it is about? USA is leaving Europe and UK wants to have secured control over Europe without Russian influence hence the iron curtain?
They want Russia to occupy the Ukraine so that the US can supply rebels, thus draining Russia of men, morale, and money for as long as the invasion lasts.
Which is precisely why the Russians will never occupy the Ukraine. They might shell it from a distance, or invade then retreat after burning the place down. But they’ll never occupy it. Basically the US is trying to use the Ukraine the same way France and the UK tried to use Poland in the ’30s.
The US knows this will leave the Ukraine a burning wreck, but apparently the Ukrainians haven’t quite figured that out.
@Zorost. Neither did Poland in 1938 quite figure it out, when Britain and France advised the Poles to join Nazi Germany in carving up CzechoSlovakia rather than join Soviet Russia in an anti-Fascist alliance.
Hi Andrei –
Pretty scary stuff – NATO moving towards Belarus according to some reports..
That means moving forces into Poland.
The Poles will enter into the western Ukraine under the US “protection”.
That how the “courageous” and “heroic” Poles fought all their wars against Russia.
They will do that again I believe.
And what would the “courageous” Poles do, with their “epic” military history disappearing as a nation-state, not just once but several times?
Another cavalry charge against T-90s? That would be a sight to see. Wake me up when the Russians get to Warsaw.
Lone Wolf
I dont think you would have time enough to get sleep before that…
;D
Of course the western Ukrainians have a long history of slaughtering Polish civilians whenever they can. So what the Poles intend to do with Galicia once they have it is an open question. They’re not exactly “brother Slavs.”
Brzezinski Family are Galicia origins.
Galicians are craziest of all.
Ahh, the Poles! Are dreaming of occupying Moscow..
Thinking it is a jump like in the “old days”?
When the Poles thought they were nicely settled in good old Moscow and extented their territory, the Russians threw them out . That is the way Russians do business when you enter their soil uninvited.
And it has not changed a bit. Beware!
So, never ever dream of it, NATO, to take on Russia for it will be your last move.
On the other hand, the people of Western Eurasia will have finally peace, including Ukraine.
“Poles fought all their wars against Russia.”
How those wars ended?
When Poroshenko went back to the Ukraine, it made no sense to me.
But, now, I am thinking.
He knows that Ze is on is way out. Poroshenko expects to take over.
Saker, I just hope that Russia had predicted the West answer to the Security questions. They have been answering since 1990. The West collective delussional believe themselves almighty and Russia is still in their way. So they are sticking to the plan, same as Hitler. Surround, weaken and destroy Russia. Make Moscow the Russian Republic, and alll around small Republics in a still anti Russian collective to protect themselves from Russia. If Russia is prepared and I believe Russia is, then they will have to quickly use a military solution.
Saker, I just hope that Russia had predicted the West answer to the Security questions
I am rather confident that they have.
The proposals were humiliating to the west and apparently were known and designed by the Russians to be just so in addition to being unacceptable. That way, the expected position desired by the Russians would be reached…
I agree
Andrei You stated above “The US will add 300 million dollars in militay aid to Russia”…i’m sure you meant Ukraine…
correct, lemme correct this, thank you!Saker, I just hope that Russia had predicted the West answer to the Security questions
Im not sure that it is appropriate for Russia and Belarus to state that there will be no invasion from Belarus or Russia… whilst modern warfare can be accomplished with stand-off weapons systems, the option of invasion should still be “on the table” . “All Options are on the Table” is after all a favourite phrase of US Politicians… Not that such subtleties really matter when full hostilities break out…Russia and Belarus will still have to ‘clean-house’ to remove NATO and its enthusiasts, from the Ukraine forever…
First priority must be to decapitate the junta in kiev, which will destroy all commands + control, will plunge the frontlines in a mess, no more coordination.
Ze, Poro, yarosh, sbu generals, collaborators at high level etc must be taken prisonners and face justice(special tribunal court)in Moscow for warcrimes (lifetime in jail), this will make ‘an exemple’ for any future ‘coup candidate’ in former USSR or near East countries to try again to poke the bear and become US whore.
An excellent point, future wanabe collaborators need to know that there will be consequences, same as should be happening to Kazakh Western tools. A good number of them dead and a significant other set serving long jail sentences will send the message.
They mean that no *unilateral* invasion will occur, initiated by them. They’re not omitting “all options are on the table” if someone threatens them – or the Donbass. As Ukraine is about to find out.
An extremely good observation ! Thanks for the correction.
Right sector near the frontline, maybe the one to activate the false flag(or be accused of even by kiev).
From Minsk (tass)
“The US side has been systematically introducing lies into information space in the recent weeks,” the diplomat said. “It is obvious that [Washington] does it in order to escalate the situation, introduce tensions, including where there are none.”
According to the Foreign Minister the US needs it “in order to justify a number of its illegal actions and to get revenge for all blatant failures of late.”
“This time it came to accusing Belarus of destabilization of the situation in the region and continuation of myths about the ‘invasion’ of Ukraine from the north. This fake claim has been repeated year after year, it is complete stupidity,” Glaz underscored. “We have said it repeatedly that no threat will originate from our territory; this idea has even been introduced into the draft Constitution.”
Biden warns of “disaster for Russia” if they invade Ukraine.
The government of Moldova has declared a new 60-day state of emergency, following a warning from Russian energy firm Gazprom that it could halt gas deliveries to the country due to unpaid bills.
Communist Party of #Russia “introduced for consideration” a draft call of State Duma to President #Putin to recognize Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) & Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) as independent entities.
#Kremlin spox Peskov says Putin not yet “got acquainted” w/ the draft
french but click on EN flag for translation
https://rusreinfo.ru/fr/2022/01/faut-il-en-liquider-un-pour-eviter-la-guerre-en-europe-et-en-sauver-des-millions/?fbclid=IwAR16pO4nAkW7U-KLW4iIZDdOVv8R5yTXFadih6V0w1riYG0aq7hgnIUnEpk
BREAKING:
German prosecutors have opened investigations against the Green Party leadership including Foreign Minister Baerbock and Economy Minister Habeck.
Accusation: Breach of trust towards their own party.
Esp. special payments made to individual politicians.
Wow. What is really going on in Germany? What had happened in Germany? Are industrialists reacting to the new Chinese law for global car makers? What is Hamburg really doing or saying to German ministers? How long will Germany remain schizophrenic?
Oh heavens!
Andrei Martyanov just referenced Ms. Baerback in his brief vid yesterday, referring to the good Green-party lady as rather fair to look upon, which prompted me to google her image. The photo of her wearing green with her bicycle caught my attention. I hope she’s not in too much trouble.
This is only a media show! It is to show, look here, we investigate as public prosecutor’s office even against green top politicians! It is about a ridiculous 1,500 euros and the investigations are set in a few days without a sound.
What could we expect from China in case of a nasty scalation? Silence? Diplomatic declarations?
Thanks
Bingo! I think that’s the huge question (see my comment at the bottom)
The Chinese tend to be very quiet when dealing with things beyond their Sphere of Influence. From my observations, they like to stay away from the limelight, providing some sort of clandestine support. I don’t expect them to be very loud on the diplomatic front this time around; probably on the same level when dealing with recent events in Kazakhstan.
The Chinese may not supply troops if Russia gets into a full-blown war with NATO, but I should hope it supplies weapons and materiel to their “closer than allies.” Russia may need the supplies if the war goes on for years. Moreover, China hopefully will not supply all the parts and electronic devices they provide for the manufacture of American weapons. Let the Yanks experience the full impact of their offshoring of all American manufacturing jobs to Asia.
We will find out how much friends Russia and China really are in case of a conflict.
Look at NATO – everybody were friends when everything went well but now the cracks are showing.
To be honest, it was Wall Street that made the decision to off-shore those jobs. And Wall Street isn’t American even though they occupy US soil.
Saker,
the AZs may not have a choice in starting the war. They are on a timetable. Their Ponzi may be collapsing any moment. They need to deflect blame to avoid the lamp posts. I remember tedrichard and others speak of the third week of January through first week of Feb. We are in the third week of Jan now..
/telephone-conversations-with-us-president-joseph-biden/#comment-1001914
I hope those who understand the markets or these particulars can fill us in.
pay attention to the gold price. find a decent weekly chart for a continuous contract weekly for the gold price at least showing the last 2-3 years. the gold price now appears to be telegraphing something is close. if it continue following through the past few days activity we should have answer soon
here is an example look for better ones
https://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/W
it is a good marker for unexpected military events
Yes Gold is a good marker for war.
Gold has been depressed for decades by the money printers in Brussels, London and New York.
Gold has been sidelined by the Petro dollar as world reserve currency, secured by the US military.
The Dollar, euro, and Yen are now in inflation, caused by nations decoupling from the use of dollar in trade.
US T-Bond are becoming worthless. The next shoe to drop will be China selling $1.3 trillion US T-bonds
The US is hijacked by Fascism, and stands to default. The only power left are the US military.
However the pending showdown between Russia-China-Iran VS US-NATO will be the final showdown.
If the price of Gold goes up traders expect Russia China to beat the Empire.
gold now and always in the past is THE international report card for public trust in their government. inflation is the canard used to sucker investors into and out of it by front running investment banks…..and the all time inflation adjusted highs for gold occured in september 1869 as well as during the war in 1863-65
have a read to see what i mean about trust
https://safehaven.com/article/14460/today-is-the-140-year-anniversary-of-black-friday-1869-and-the-gold-crash
when if trust in washington (the dollar) implodes you are likely looking gold above 3000
$3,000 per ounce in which currency?
If the US get beaten the US dollar will likely be destroyed. Maybe $10,000 per ounce in US dollars but who would exchanging gold for US dollars if the empire falls?
IMO if the sabre rattling gets serious you will see $3000 US per ounce in the next four weeks.
dollars,
10,000 dollar gold would be a world where a rifle and ammo would be far more useful than gold and it would be a world you would be terrified to leave home.
Ted, always appreciate your contributions here and on Smoothie’s site. Do you think market collapse is likely in the first half of the year?
I keep an eye on the spot price of Lockheed Martin as an indicator for upcoming conflicts the US geneerates
(Reuters) – Finland does not plan to join NATO in the near future but is ready to stand with its European allies and United States by imposing tough sanctions on Russia if it attacks Ukraine, Finland’s Prime Minister Sanna Marin said on Wednesday.
FINNAIR will be bankrupted no more overfly rights of RUS, AY has a lot of Asian flights + cargo, will loose hundreds of millions.
Same for all western airlines, Lufhansa could loose up to one billion, their stocks will collapse.
What is happening at the moment is the denouement of a plan hatched in the early 1990s. The gradual unification of the West has been accompanied by a relentless push towards Russia. It began with the break-up of Yugoslavia and is supposed to culminate with the break-up of Russia. Those who think that this is caused by the West’s weakness or is a consequence of its stupidity (Lavrov: give them comics) are gravely deluded. The sheer evil emanating from the actions of the collective West is mind-boggling. They have decided to destroy Russia and make her suffer one way or another.
Now is not the time to criticise (God knows I’ve done it enough times) but to pray that evil does not triumph and that the spirits of Nevsky, St. Seraphim, Minin & Pozharsky, Suvorov, Kutuzov, Zhukov and Konev are keeping their eternal vigil over the fate of Holy Russia.
Sure but no plan survives contact with the enemy (i.e. reality).
Neither should this one if Shoigu is worthy of the avatars I mentioned above.
Yes, as before in history, attack on Russia began with the attack on Serbs, whom the West will forever see as ‘ little Russians.’
In 1995 with bombing Serbs west of Drina River, in Bosnia, and then again with 78 days of bombardment of Serbia in 1999.
Although the 19 Nato nations that were using 1100 warplanes in this aggression have caused an estimated hundred billion dollars of damage to Serbia’s infrastructure and economy, they failed to break Serbian defenses and people’s morale as well as to cripple Serbia’s military.
This was the beginning of the downfall of the Empire, that had sunk to its moral lows in the actions, and the beginning of the rise of Russia, which learned an important lesson again in the course of events and parted with its illusion that it may be accepted by the West if it plays nicely.
As in 1941, Serbs have bought an important time for Russians to get ready for imminent aggression.
”What is happening at the moment is the denouement of a plan hatched in the early 1990s. The gradual unification of the West has been accompanied by a relentless push towards Russia. It began with the break-up of Yugoslavia and is supposed to culminate with the break-up of Russia.”
Thats completely wrong. The Globalists had no secret plan to destroy Russia in the early 1990s, because in point of fact, they had already succeeded at that goal. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became a shadow of what it once was. Its economy was in ruins, key industrys were bought up by Oligarchs, and Russia was run by a pro-West alcoholic. It was no longer an obstacle to the Globalist plans for world domination, which gave them freedom to enact their expansionist wars.
That is, until Putin brought the Oligarchs under control and started rebuilding the country. Russia began reasserting itself on the world stage and interfering with the Anglo-Zionist plans, most notably in Syria. This has been a huge source of frusration for the Globalists, because they had thought that the Russians had been ‘dealt with’. The plan to isolate and blockade them is a hasty improvisation that was devised in the last few years, when it became clear that they would not submit.
Sorry, but that is a mantra that has caused a lot of damage. Russia was on its knees but the Drang started in 1991. The Germans mainly were infiltrating Eastern European countries (like the Abwehr in the 1930s) and preparing the ground. As long as Russia was “on its knees” nothing dramatic needed to be done. Once President Putin started “misbehaving”, it became overt and obvious.
https://cluborlov.wordpress.com/2022/01/19/a-short-te..
Will the US start a nuclear war over the Ukraine? Umm… how about “NO!!!” Will the US impose “sanctions from hell”? Perhaps, but you have to understand that at this point in time the US and other Western economies can be accurately caricatured as a crystal vase full of excrement parked on the very edge of a high shelf over a hard marble floor. The hope is that nobody is going to sneeze because the sound pressure might cause it to go over the edge. Sanctions from hell do sound like they could cause a bit of a sneeze. Needless to say, the US will continue to talk about sanctions from hell and maybe even pass some legislation so titled, and claim to have sent “a strong message,” but to no effect.
A Short-Term Geopolitical Forecast
cluborlov.wordpress.com
The U.S. doesn’t care about the Ukraine or anyone else for that matter. They won’t start a nuclear war over Ukraine because none of this is about Ukraine. Those who imagine themselves to be rulers of the universe demand all countries, including Russia to submit and surrender. And they want their stuff. This has been their intent for many decades.
Will the US start a nuclear war over Ucraine? That’s the wrong question. Right question is “Will China and Russia do something about It?” US’s agression heads on China, Russia and Europe
Now Orlov requires a paid subscription to read his opinion pieces. When I read this a few days ago, it was free.
Too bad it was an excellent analysis. But overall, Orlov is not worth a subscription. I do not have oodles of cash to spend on these things.
Do you have a copy?
Please do not post my email.
Thanks!
War? Heck no. Snowflake generation in west will mentally collapse in 5 hours if social media in not working. We at least have good books but they can’t even read classic books.
The Russian military will fight the war long distance with missiles and drones and EW. The attacking forces in Ukraine will get hit in depth, the Ukie infrastructure upon which reinforcement and logistical support depends will be destroyed. If Poland moves across borders, they will be destroyed. Belarus will be a key to the Russian force structure. Expect thousands more Russians to be in Belarus.
Look at a map. Ukraine is already in a natural cauldron. Russia on the east and south, Belarus on the north. When retreat is made impossible by the impact of missiles and drones and loss of roads and bridges, their military will be decimated and all the arms sent now will be rubble and ashes.
Bring it! Russia won’t start it. The Ukies will.
it appears porky has returned just time…how coincidental,,,,,,,,,,lol
Agreed. If the US needs a true, tested and proven psychopath, Porky’s their man.
Watch for the move against Akhmetov, the last standing oligarch. I think either Zelensky or the US will try to marginalize him.
A truly smart move for Renat Akhmetov would be to cut a deal with the Kremlin. He needs ports to export his minerals and by-products. He used to have assets in Crimea. He will be bankrupted soon if he goes it alone.
A likely scenario, I think: Ukraine attacks, its army and structure are destroyed, Zelenky leaves. Poroshenko takes over and retreats, gives up the war. Minsk2 is installed, the country is divided.
How about this is all smoke and mirrors and the real fighting starts in the middle east oil sector.
Only the Houthis are fighting in the oil sector. No one else wants a war there. And the Houthis are very careful with targeting.
They alone may be enough, he who strikes first, strikes best.
If Poland moves across borders, they will be destroyed.
I am not so sure. Here is what I think: let the Poles occupy the western Ukraine and let the western Ukies drink their “Europeanness” down to the last drink.
These bastards deserve each other.
Why should anybody interfere?
F them both.
Why would you not be concerned that the Nazis in Galicia would not hybridize with the Poles ? It looks to me like a marriage made in hell, and everyone would pay the price.
From the time of Pilsudski and Beck, Poles were always willing to cooperate with the German Nazis against Czechoslovakia and the USSR. The Wolyn massacre (250,000 Poles, Christian and Jews), is ignored by all modern Polish “leaders”. UkroNazis now see their own precious black earth up for sale to the highest (foreign) bidders while Ukrainian life expectancy has dropped by 12 years compared to all their neighbors, and yet they don’t seem to care. 7 of Ukraine’s 8 oligarchs are Jews, and the Nazis don’t care. Poland is barely better. Poland industries are low-paid subcontractors to German businesses who reap the profits. Both groups hate Russia for no reason and without counting the cost to themselves.
The Poles are the lead mad dogs of NATO.
And the borders I worry about are Kaliningrad and Belarus.
The Poles need an object lesson. Kalibrs will suffice. Conventional Iskanders will do also.
If you want NATO back to 1997 lines, there are more than Ukies to deal with.
If they come, teach them the new rules.
Maybe the real fight goes back to the 93 secret agreements, made public in 97.
Stay tuned, you might get called up in the draft to fight.
Cosimo, agreed. We should not ignore the Bandera Nazis in a cavalier manner, hopefully VVP doesn’t get cold feet and actually green lights ops this time…FSB can finally deal with the Nazis once and for all.
Putin has officially stated more than once that Durkaine is within its (our former))) borders.
Status – non-aligned States.
Form of government – (con) Federation
Larchmonter445 my King*,
I’ d love to see the orcs tryng to attack D/LNR. This attack will be twarted, and will give Russians the legitimacy to strike back and decimate the ukronazi failed State.
This is the outcome that really matters.
César, Júlio.
* This expression, “my king”, is used here in Brasil to refer to someone we admire and respect.
Yesterday, I posted a comment on your open thread that linked to the three essential OSCE Collective Security Treaties. What I failed to write was the following that ties them to the overall Russian diplomatic maneuver that has the Outlaw US Empire in a very bad position–it lost the diplomatic tussle, and it wasn’t even close. It’s now in the process of upsetting the card table while accusing the Russians of cheating. Here’s the meat:
Russia has a hand of 5 Aces, which are the two separate and later broken promises made regarding Germany’s reunification and Warsaw Pact’s decommissioning combined with no Eastern NATO movement, and the three separate OSCE Treaties on Collective European Security that all essentially say that no nation or group of nations can secure its/their security while making another nation insecure. Either the Outlaw US Empire apologizes for its wrongdoings, or it breaks the three treaties atop the other two promises it’s already broken. Aside from overturning the card table, those are the only two possible outcomes. Russia has played its diplomatic hand superbly and has already won. The Anglo’s problem is which choice to make in reply.
What Blinken and NATO are doing is what sore losers and outlaws do when they’re caught-out–they draw their 6-gun. Clearly, the Outlaw US Empire can’t admit it was outplayed diplomatically, nor can it admit its dishonesty and issue an apology. It’s acting like a juvenile delinquent by throwing a temper tantrum.
you need to realize how desperately washington and brussels NEED this war. the covid policy is imploding as civil unrest continues to rise with no let up. the elites have wrecked the western economies. the FED is going to raise rates which initially can cause a market downside havoc going into midterms where the democratic part already looks and smells like 3 day old large mammal summer road kill. the ecb is out of ammo completely and is teetering over the cliff with fed not helping by reelecting powell who will like put lagarde over the kitchen table without any foreplay.
a war is hoped to enjoin patriotic feelings among the populations towards the leader who have so abused them for 2 years.
Oh, I understand all too well what’s happening as I’ve made it my business. But there really isn’t any reason to include all that to explain the Outlaw US Empire’s juvenile behavior. I’ve now combined links and commentary into this short article, “Completely Outplayed by Russia’s Diplomacy and Sabotaged by its Own Actions, The Outlaw US Empire is Now Having a Temper Tantrum”.
@tedr
What patriota are you talking about? The ignorant warmongering trumpteters? Those? I live in the US and fully comprehend the ignorance and indifference of the population. Everyone deserves what’s coming.
sir you need you need to place yourself in the politicians shoes not the ones you wear. the pols are largely ignorant to actually stupid who believe their own propaganda
You may be able to ‘enthuse patriotism’ for war in the USA, you sure as heck can’t any longer in Western Europe. We saw what happened in both Iraq and Libya and we have complete contempt for warmongering politicians now.
I reckon about 30% of the UK population want Tony Blair hung from a lamp post, seeing as how the International Criminal Court won’t put him on trial for genocide/war crimes.
All the younger generation have completely switched off the MSM – they don’t read newspapers, don’t watch the BBC, ITV or Channel 4 any more.
Politicians are living in some spaced out world usually created after tripping on LSD…..
I recall the story “Walter” wrote, some time ago, about the way one gets out of a losing hand when caught at cheating. “6-gun”indeed!
I myself think of “singularity” as the concept.
If the present circumstance is actually a singularity, then violence is assured as a component of the eventual political post hoc, at least according to Conflict Theory.
Six gun diplomacy after losing a big pot !
Sundance is Russia of course, (opening scene)
https://youtu.be/oBrZwYFtOBA
I don’t think this is just a temper tantrum. I’m sure Blinken and some others are ticked off that their threats haven’t worked. Of course, they’d rather Russia, China, and Iran bow down rather than resist.
But overall, I view all this as an actual plan by the people behind the scenes who run Biden, Blinken, and everyone else, i.e., the Deep State and their backers in the MIC/finance circles. The full contours of the plan are not apparent to me, but that they fully intend a war between Ukraine and Russia – if not a war between NATO and Russia – is pretty clear.
My concern is these nine NATO military exercises scheduled for next month and beyond in Ukraine, involving 64,000 foreign troops and hundreds of aircraft and ships. This is not a coincidence that February is the month everyone expects the war to break out. I’m concerned that the CIA and the neocons have engineered an operation that involves Ukraine attacking Donbass under cover of or even with the participation of these NATO forces. Despite Ukraine not being a member of NATO, if Russia has to respond and a significant number of NATO forces get squashed in the process, this could result in NATO invoking Chapter 5, which would pretty much force Biden to respond.
I am concerned that the CIA and the neocons specifically engineered that situation even more than a simple war between Ukraine and Russia. And I don’t see anyone anywhere considering this as a possibility. As I said in my Moon post, yes, it’s a conspiracy theory. But it’s a plausible one.
A formal alliance between Russia and China is required now! An attack on one is an attack on the other. And should include Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and other friendly nations. The people of the Orthodox Balkans need to wake up now and show their true support.
I still think the Empire wants the Great Decoupling. They want to destroy all economic and political relations between Russia and the rest of Europe.
The encroachment on Russia serve 2 purposes in my view:
(1) Chip away all countries with good relations with Russia and
(2) create conditions in which Russia can be made a pariah.
Reason 2 is why the West’s policy is aimed at maximum provocation towards Russia. The Empire wants Russia to either act militarily or to create a situation in which Russia can be painted as an aggressive state that needs to be isolated, using the lying mass media which basically are fully controlled and act uniformly.
It does not even matter if Russia really reacts militarily. The people in the West are so brain-washed that they will still consume the mass media, no matter how stupid the propaganda is. Thus they will just accept the destruction of relations.
Thus, Russia basically cannot avert this methodical destruction of relations, unless it itself gains political influence in the West, which is unlikely since the West is highly brain-washed and shaped by propaganda and PsyOps.
After the Empire has cordoned off and isolated Russia from the West, then they can concentrate on working down China. They will try to make China do politics in a way agreeable to the Oligarchs and financial interests. And they will try to push back Chinese influence in countries important to the Empire.
And you think Russia will just sit back and let this happen?
“Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.” Mike Tyson
Russia has already planned what kind and how many punches it intends to throw if events go “hot”. I have no idea what those plans are but my gut feeling is the punches will be very painful and may actually result in the isolation and possible collapse of the global primacy of the West ie the complete opposite of what you predict.
No, in fact, Russia *has* to react because it is potentially threatened with strategic weapon systems that destroy the strategic balance between the West an Russia. That is the reason why Russia basically cannot avoid a decoupling strategy on the part of the Empire.
Maybe the current thunderous Russian claims for security guarantees are a way to cope with the situation, simply due to the fact that the Western lying media will use these claims to further demonize Russia without the need of a real military confrontation.
Another such way would be accepting the Donbass republics. This would also give the Empire all it really wants to finally break all relations. Unfortunately the Empire uses political puppets who to an extent really believe the lies of the Western propaganda machine and thus could use Russia’s reaction as an argument to increase the threat level.
And the Empire is unfortunately inherently reckless and criminal (and in the end stupid). I deem it possible that these morons could really deploy weapon systems dangerous to the strategic balance, in order to *force* Russia to react further.
In this case Russia has little chance other than
(a) using military threats or military action against such weapon systems (which is almost unthinkable), or
(b) Russia could deploy doomsday weapon systems in proximity to the US, e.g. nuclear devices that can trigger tsunamis, weapons in space, and stuff like that.
The latter would also be very, very dangerous due to the always present possibility of technical errors and/or misunderstandings.
Unfortunately, I fear that is precisely what will happen. The world will hang by an even thinner thread than it already does now, because of the the utter recklessness and stupidity and inherent criminality of the Empire.
“As of yet no one has given Vladimir Putin a bloody nose,” Mississippi’s Roger Wicker told reporters. “I think the alliance, our friends in NATO and a bipartisan majority are prepared to assist Ukraine in making sure that, if it happens, this time Vladimir Putin will get a bloody nose,”
Holy shit, this is from a U.S. Senator!! We’re all fu**ed!
That empty suit will be whimpering if Russia decides to fight. He will need new pants. It’s just Blowhards bloviating. Talks like a tough guy but he’s either bluffing or will soon learn the limits of his own arrogance.
You do not understand the isolation of our elites. He doesn’t think this affects him at all, personally.
Unfortunately, dumbs&& wicker is my senator!😩
This all is a win-win for the USA. No Americans killed but lots of weapons sold. Until the USD is stopped these types of proxy wars will never end.
Tip of the day:
Don’t hang out with senators.
In a few days or weeks, Roger Wicker will be forcibly dancing to Kalinka.
Wicker is the same jackass that spouted off about not ruling out a nuclear first strike against Russia to protect Ukraine.
Their military ignorance is making them walk into a humiliating defeat. Russia will annihilate any NATO interference. Canada’s national newspaper also ran an op Ed today by former defense ministers calling for robust Canadian support for Ukraine at all costs. They don’t know how badly they will be crushed.
If Mr. Wicker really wants to fight, let him go to the front lines! It used to be that the King led the army into battle. Now the ‘kings’ stand behind and whoop it up. Usually to their dismay.
So, ……….. ahhhh, what is Mr. blinken going to do fora job in a few weeks?
“Stupid is as stupid does.”
-Forrest Gump
I think this sums up Washington in a nutshell.
I have nothing else to add. These people are so blinded by their arrogance that they’ve completely lost touch with reality.
Empires collapse when they start to believe the bs about their own greatness.
This is not about war but about cutting Russia off from the West and neutralising its geopolitical power – Blinken said it – it is about crippling it. They will try to do this using all means short of war in the hope that Russia breaks up under relentless pressure. It is up to Russia to prove them wrong.
Good news. Thank you vlad.
I hope China sends a contingent of its PLA to Russia’s western border in order to observe how U.S.-NATO is organized for battle in the Black Sea region. I write this because I have not heard or seen any evidence that China will stand up for Russia beyond signed agreements and photo opportunity handshakes.
In November of 2021, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe expressed their joint commitment to military exercises and patrols. Shoigu mentioned the U.S. Military practices airborne attacks on Russia’s western and eastern borders as well as in the Sea of Okhotsk that threatens China proper as well.
See: https://apnews.com/article/europe-russia-china-moscow-sergei-shoigu-0363dd9e12e6285d36ac5c82413bbbf1 .
The last paragraph in the Associated Press article stated, “Even though Russia and China in the past rejected the possibility of forging a military alliance, Putin said last year that such a prospect can’t be ruled out. He also has noted that Russia has been sharing highly sensitive military technologies with China that helped significantly bolster its defense capability.”
So President Putin steps up and says a Chinese military alliance is an option but President XI Jinping has not publicly agreed to that. That makes me skeptical that China will militarily engage with Russia if Putin asks for assistance either in logistical support or with ground and airborne forces.
I don’t have a positive feeling at this juncture about China’s allegiance to Russia when military conflict breaks out in Ukraine. It doesn’t matter that Russia can handle the Ukrainian situation without China’s help. What matters is that China needs to show it will “walk the talk” because if they won’t then Russia will have to seek other dependable allies to confront the U.S. war machine.
China is an all weather partner. A quiet one, but is very powerful. They will back Russia up economically and politically. Russia does not require military assistance from China.
Russia does not require military assistance from China.
The fact that most Chinese weapons systems are enhanced derivatives of Soviet era systems could be a huge logistical advantage for Russia. In a large scale military campaign against NATO, I believe it is safe to assume these systems will be the workhorses of the Russian military:
*Su-27/30/35 Flankers, built as J-11/15/16 in China
*3M-54 Kaliber, built as YJ-18 in China
Assuming the WS-10 engines, Chinese landing gears, wings, etc are interchangeable with AL-31s & other parts used in current Russian frontline Flanker units, this would allow Russian maintenance crews to quickly send its Flankers back into the fight. Also assuming the YJ-18 is compatible with current Russian platforms launching 3M-54s, this would guarantee quick re-armament of Russian units.
Do you have any proof of China as an all weather partner?
I would respond that making a big show of having Putin as the guest of honor at the Bejing Olympics and showcasing him with Xi on the global stage necessarily means they intend to stick by Russia’s side during this next phase of the global war. Likewise, I very much doubt Putin would accept such an invite and stand with China in a public way if he thought they were going to be fair weather allies.
As is typically the case, I think both Russian and Chinese behavior are often analyzed through the lens of AZ imperial thinking. So if there are no big, visible shows of kinetic action, it is assumed nothing is going on, alliances are not real, nations are weak, etc. We’re so accustomed to our “leaders” making big, ridiculous threats and all of our poodles barking on command that the absence of such behavior is interpreted as weakness.
The meeting in Bejing next month between Putin and Xi is, IMHO, the time when all the non-visible work that has occurred between the two nations over the years becomes very public.
Besides, just narrow self-interest would tell you that China is joined at the hip with Russia now. If Russia falls, China falls. They are keenly aware of this. They’re not going to sit it out and hope for the best.
Yes. Thousands of years of their history. Or just look at post WWII history.
We can count on Chin’A leaders being smart, well informed, and protective of China’s national interests.
In 2012, ten years ago, then-US-Secretary of Snake Hillary Clinton, spilled the beans about the “Pacific Pivot” and gave a rude awakening to the Chinese, who then responded by greatly increasing its nuclear arsenal from about 40 missiles to an estimated 400 to 800 warheads. That was the cheapest way to neutralize the threat as it then existed. Now the threat has morphed, but the Chinese certainly know the American crosshairs are aimed at them, long before Huawei, for instance, was targeted. It’s interesting how Beijing responds to the threat. China holds most of the cards, and it knows this. So histrionics are not needed, and that never was the Chinese style. China began making friends in Africa 30 years ago, and now the war in Syria is drawing to a close, China is finally ready to help with reconstruction of that devastated victim. Even more so than Russia, China dos not want a hostile West, but it would be a big misreading of the facts to think China is somehow not looking out for themselves – and their good friends.
I don’t have a positive feeling at this juncture about China’s allegiance to Russia when military conflict breaks out in Ukraine… What matters is that China needs to show it will “walk the talk” because if they won’t then Russia will have to seek other dependable allies to confront the U.S. war machine.
Even in cynical terms (there is no evidence Xi Jinping’s relationship with Vladimir Putin is cynical,) Beijing has a vital interest in making sure any Russian military campaign against NATO fully succeeds! In addition to economic and political support, China will most likely support Russia logistically. For example:
*China’s J-11/15/16 parts and subsystems are most likely compatible with Russian Su-27/30/34/35s
*China’s YJ-18 missiles are most likely compatible with Russian 3M-54 Kaliber launching systems
*Iron “dumb” bombs, jet fuel, diesel, petrochemicals, steel, medicines, and other basic materials
*PL-21 air-to-air missile will likely be easy to make compatible with Russian fighters
Following the CSTO model, China could assign a division (or 10) to be under the command of a Russian general to defend the Far East, which would relieve Russian troops in Siberia to be redeployed to western front.
The Chinese aren’t like the South Koreans to allow a foreign military leader to command a division, let alone 10 divisions, of their own troops. At best, Russia liaison officers / special forces would be embedded in Chinese forces. Several years ago, Russia and China had participated in a military exercise on the Far Eastern Russian border where it was China’s largest participation outside of their borders.
The Chinese are very big on saving face, and win-win. Rest assured the Chinese are willing to allow any troops on deployed on Russian soil to be under the command of a Russian general if that means (a) Vladimir Putin saves face (i.e. does not anger Russian nationalists/patriots,) and (b) it reassures the Russian people that the PLA is not occupying Russian land.
That said, I doubt any Russian general would be interested in micromanaging any Chinese division(s) temporarily deployed to Russia. In addition to obeying Russian laws the Russian commanding general would probably list certain objectives and guidelines for the Chinese task force to complete.
My best guess: the Russian military would be most interested in putting to work Chinese airlift, maintenance & weapons technicians (especially those qualified to work on J-11/15/16s), cyber warfare specialists, and medical personnel; while the combat arms would be on exercise and joint guard duty.
Understand that the Chinese moving their troops to Russia’s Western border is basically a HUGE departure from their usual modus operandi. Second, Chinese troops stationed inside Russia would seriously piss off all the Russian nationalists. It could backfire on Putin, giving his political opponents ammunition. Third, China isn’t going to send troops just to sit on their asses doing nothing. And lastly, I’m sure Shoygu knows what is needed. Should things do turn hot, I’m sure there are Chinese advisors / observers near the area.
Remember that military exercise several years ago on Russia’s Eastern border where China sent it’s largest participants outside of their borders? The way I see it, China’s responsibility is to cover Russia’s Eastern front while Russia looks after the Western front.
I’m not sure the word “allegiance” is an appropriate word to use. Both China and Russia have their own national interests that may conflict with one another. I don’t know if there are any. The way I see China’s silence is because China consider the area in question as outside of their Sphere of Influence. It’s like how China sees the South China Seas; an area within China’s Sphere of Influence.
Regardless of whether an alliance has been formally announced or not is immaterial. Neither can allow the other to falter at this juncture. I would include Iran in this also.
(No coincidence that these three countries lead the world rankings of stem students per head capita)
One wonders at the minds of those who fresh from defeat in just about every conflict they have involved themselves in over the last 80 odd years, now set themselves on a course to lock horns with Russia. How exactly do they see that one playing out? I suspect that while they would fail militarily, war is really not the objective. Instead, they provoke Russia to make a move because the alternative is worse. They then get to paint Russia as the “aggressor”, copper fasten the support of their minions and go for an economic and political long game stretching over decades. What more could psychopaths want?
China is of course next. The playbook will be brought out once more and they will find themselves in a Ukraine style situation over Taiwan.
The Ukrainians and the Taiwanese really should know they are being used but as always, those who refuse to learn from history, …most especially very recent history, are doomed to repeat their mistakes. Is it somehow desirable to sacrifice oneself for an overlord who seeks to profit from your demise? How utterly idiotic is that?
The US and it’s lickspittles are a collective boil that for the sake of the patient needs to be lanced. Honestly, I’d prefer to be governed by chimps with revolvers. They’d be less dangerous, ….and more intelligent.
So nothing has changed. Russia will destroy 404 without putting one boot into Ukraine if 404 makes a wrong move. If any NATO countries want to get involved they will be destroyed also. Am I missing anything?
We’d love to, but it won’t work. We will have to enter – the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the National Guard, the Special Forces and the MTR (maybe we will attract the CSTO))) will have to join … for a short time.
To put things in order (with all the ensuing consequences), to hold a national referendum, split into sectors, and then the elections of subjects (conf) of the Federation of Okraine (of Russia))).
And home – let them continue on their own … under supervision. )))
I think your comments need to be emphasised and noticed very clearly by everyone on this website. it is the only realistic methodology for Russia to follow.
It depends on what objective Russia sets itself. It could be:
1. Destroy Ukraine (as the Romans did with Carthage). This does not need boots, with overwhelming missile/air superiority. Even dumb bombs from Su24 will suffice
2. Defeat Ukraine and then turn it into a civilised country. This requires boots. But is Afghanistan 2.0. No need or moral imperative to do this.
The simple objective should be to neutralise the threat. Russia has no need for Ukraine.
Number 2 will not work. Number 1 also will not work.
I propose a third option. Split the country in two.
Occupy the eastern part. Utterly destroy the western.
Russia has plenty of bombs and missiles to spare without going for the nuclear option.
After some thought, a prediction for when the fun starts: very likely before or at the beginning of the Winter Olympics.
For one, given the 24/7 screeching from Western media and politicians about the imminent Russian invasion and now the increasing pace of the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, there has to be conflict very soon. It appears the the West is staking their “credibility” on this actually happening, plus they have now painted themselves into a corner and have no graceful way to get out.
Secondly, aside from the Olympics being a good smokescreen for a war to start (and being used as such in the past), the West would gain the added benefit of screwing up the Olympics for the Chinese.
So, if something is going to happen, it will likely happen within two weeks.
The Winter Olympics begin on February 5. The Georgians started their attack against South Ossetia on 08.08.08, the first day of the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing. Now, the only trophy the Empire wants to take home would be complete disruption of ties between Europe and the sovereign nations of Asia. So a start date of Feb. 5 makes much more sense than any time later. War on the opening day of the Olympics would be proof of who wanted to start it, but that does not matter, because the Empire holds its domestic populations in extreme contempt and the Empire thinks it can handle whatever suspicions arise.
“Putin, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping, will visit Beijing on February 4, the opening day of the Olympic Games.”
I agree, with the markets in near melt down and confidence bleeding from the USD, they cannot wait any longer. They may not be able to last until Olympics. Undoubtedly China-Russia gamed this, and accelerated events so the spoilsports could not pull their usual shenanigans during the Olympics. If they can be deflected somehow from starting the conflagration in next two weeks, perhaps they can collapse into their own footprint without taking all of us with them.
Additional consideration: the Chinese Year of the Tiger starts on February 1, 2022.
What do the Chinese say about it?
Is it an auspicious year?
For the satanic occultists, they broadcast on their seminal blueprint video “iPet Goat 2” that this is a year of focusing on China.. which jives with military planners’ need to dominate China before 2025.
Is 2022 a year of sorrows? What do they have planned? In that video, Baron Samedi grabs a young girl with the tiger emblem on the back of her jacket with his bony hand (so Skull and Bones grabs the Dragon by the Tiger’s tail..) and forcibly turns her around to face him. There is a corona burst in the sky behind him. She almost immediately closes her eyes [in sadness? despair? resignation?] which are rouged a bluish-purple across both palpebra.. Purple is their color – the synthesis of the Blue and the Red of the Hegelian dialectic.. so full immersion of China into the Beast System? How?! Overall difficult for me to interpret. Pepe indirectly just asked that question too, regarding Xi’s dalliance with the Davos crowd. Unbearable pressure is being applied to the civilizational states.
But if history is anything to go by, Satanists do not have goodwill towards any, and this is a year (February 1, 2022 onwards) of particular focus on China. However, before all this, their prior timeline anticipated either an uneasy détente with or submission of Russia, and the Iran situation frozen or resolved, neither of which is the case. Hence the psychological melt-down at Imperial HQ. So Chinese MUST fully support Russia now, the way Russia entered Syria in 2015.. Given the stakes, neither can permit the other to fall or even risk fighting alone. Hopefully this declaration of alliance can be expedited in next few days, given the slide into war.
Russia expected that officially the United States would not be able to give any guarantees. Otherwise, Gagamen will lose face. The United States will forcibly comply with the conditions of Russia, unquestioningly under the pretext – for example, under the guise of saving the ex-Ukrainian SSR, the EU, … from the destruction of the RF Armed Forces.
The necessary military forces have already been assembled, the rest is just a cover. What to expect on the 10th when Putin and Xi open the Olympics on the 4th. )))
Of course, we will not disconnect from SWIFT, otherwise Airbus and Boeing will have to run around with cash every day, plus the loss of image, confidence in the system…
(We will soon disconnect ourselves, when switching to the New Global Payment System, in which there is no place for the dollar. )))
Psaki traditionally lie – no one is evacuated anywhere. This was confirmed even by the Ukrainians themselves.
Valtsman (Parashenko) and Ze are clowns of the same circus, no matter what the USA tells them, they will play in the arena
This “weapon” for us is not even children’s slingshots – slings! EW / REP jamming – stuns and destroys, laser – blinds and burns, … missiles with bombs – kill.
Biden just mentioned economic sanctions if Russia makes an “incursion” into the Ukraine. I suppose the Russians are shivering in their boots right now. However, not because of Biden’s threat, but because it is January, and it is cold outside; but then again, I’m sure the Russians know how to make warm boots by now. Anyway, Biden’s threat is really somewhat of a joke given that just about everything in the stores in the U.S.A. comes from China, or some other Asian country. So, what are sanctions going to do other than starve the U.S. public of durable goods? I am sure the Russians could care less. In my opinion, Putin ought just go ahead and pre-empt the impending assault upon the eastern Ukraine provinces by the west, by just rolling in first. Probably save a lot of bloodshed.
‘Biden’ is trying to prepare some Americans for the reality that we are not going to crush Russia with our invincible Army.
LDNR officials have declared that their intelligence service has confirmed that Urkonazi special forces, trained and prepared by the UK, are preparing terrorist attacks in the LDNR. An LDNR military spokesman said that the Urkonazis have six terrorist groups ready to attack the civilian infrastructure (water, energy, transportation, chemical plants, etc.) in the LDNR.
Would it be wise to pre-emptively attack these terrorist units? Assuming the KGB + GRU know where they are, could the Russian military launch stand-off attacks against them, or direct Novorossian armour units to strike them first? I am guessing such a pre-emptive move would actually surprise NATO.
Blinken is in Kiev and said that the US will give no written guarantees of ANY kind and if Russia attacks the Ukraine, the US will cripple Russia.
Under English jurisprudence (i.e. style of law used in Five Eyes) if a plaintiff proves to the court they have properly served the defendant but the defendant ignores/does not reply then the court will recognise the defendant was properly notified, and will like rule in favour in the plaintiff. Assuming this principle applies to international law, Blinken “ghosting” the Russian government will work against the Biden regime, because the Russian government has properly informed/served the Biden regime and NATO about the dispute. If and when members of the Biden, Trump, Obama, Bush, and even Clinton regimes are brought to The Hague for war crime trials, the entire chain of evidence will be irrefutable.
The problem is the Hague is owned by the same people that own the US legal system. How can one expect justice, when the supreme courts are corrupt?
I think the China reaction here is crucial. If/when Natzo unleashes their Ukro dogs of war and “sanctions from hell” on Russia it will clearly indicate to them they could do the same to China. So China can decide:
A. Formally object but remaining sitting on the sidelines and still do the capitalist-globalist business as usual
OR
B. Declare a state of emergency, some sort of a formal alliance with Russia, that capitalism-globalism is paused and start hurting Natzo where they really feel it – multinational company pockets and consumer goods
It’d be great to get an insider view of the China leadership thought process on this.
I think there is an option ‘C’ : China condemns the “sanctions from hell,” activates its SWIFT alternative with Russia to ensure Russian finances still flow smoothly, and announces a free trade agreement with Russia. All of that while still maintaining whatever trade still possible with the West.
@Parabolic PS: China is far too clever to pigeon hole themselves like what you outlined.
@Dick Lenning: Both China and Russia have their own functioning financial systems (CIPS and SPFS) respectively. Western sanctions “from Hell” would have ZERO effect on trade between them. They don’t even use the US dollar. However, you’re correct on the last part. China and Russia will do whatever possible to maintain whatever trade still possible with the West.
@Parabolic PS
I think that when president Putin visits China for the Winter Olympic Games, there may be some sort of military ties that are going to be revealed. And by voluntarily leaving SWITF for an alternative system, the “sanctions from hell” will not have their forceful impact anymore.
As I stated previously, the West needs of a limited war to justify extreme measures in order to reshape the society and definitely isolate the EU from Eurasia. Russia made clear that such war will not remain limited. But without this, the current West decay would continue until the implosion, so they must do something. I was wondering what, but apparently these news suggest that they prefer to risk this limited war. Really hawks won?
About “putting the entire world economy at risk of chaos”, in case this is precisely what Western elites want to erase any financial bubble towards the so-called techno-feudal capitalism.
Our hope to avoid this is that LDNR can handle the aggression without forcing a direct Russian intervention. And that Putin and his entourage planned some countermove quick and effective, similar to that for Kazakhstan.
Take a couple of steps back and don’t be distracted by the posturing. The chances of war are very slim. The US will not give the green light for a Ukrainian attack on the Donbass. The US is fully aware that both Ukraine and the West would lose a war in Europe with the Russians–and the economic consequences for the West would be catastrophic. There was never the slightest chance the US would reasonably respond, in writing or otherwise, to Russia’s treaty proposals. Tension, accusations, posturing and provocative gestures are the name of the game and will continue indefinitely. When I say the “US”, I mean the string pullers: the MIC, the Bankers, the Deep State and the JCS. Few in this group are stupid or uninformed. They are people whose interest is facts, spreadsheets, and profits. The rest–Congress, the Media, and the Administration–do what they’re told. The neocon fanatics are useful idiots who are allowed their fantasies to keep the pot boiling. As for the Russians–and the Chinese for that matter–they know time is on their side. They certainly are not going to take aggressive action in response to threats, bluster, the weak forces in Ukraine and Eastern Europe, or the lack(heaven help us!) of a written agreement. If the West does stumble into something monumentally stupid, the Russians will turn off the gas tap and things will be resolved in short order. Lots of noise, but that’s about it.
Good luck with that. Every single piece of evidence demonstrates the contrary. Most notably Russia’s military movements which clearly show their intelligence says the opposite.
I’m just hoping that Russia is as quick, decisive and calculating as I believe them to be, severely putting US/NATO morons in their place
“LDNR officials have declared that their intelligence service has confirmed that Urkonazi special forces, trained and prepared by the UK, are preparing terrorist attacks in the LDNR. An LDNR military spokesman said that the Urkonazis have six terrorist groups ready to attack the civilian infrastructure (water, energy, transportation, chemical plants, etc.) in the LDNR. The point would be to create chaos and fear, making the defense of the LDNR for the LDNR forces much harder.”
In my readings of history,actions like that are a Declaration of War. And duty calls the LDNR to respond in kind inside the UK. Probably sadly they won’t,which means the terrorists in the UK will continue their criminal attacks. Because as history clearly shows,not punishing attackers,always leads to more attacks.As we can see from Russia not responding to attacks,and now here we are.
Heads are going to roll, and blood is going to boil, but wanting to head to the front lines and fight in winter?
I’m still thinking smoke and mirrors and $100+ bbl/oil.
Quando a economia do Ocidente entra em colapso e as estruturas -morais, éticas, culturais – da suas sociedades se desmoronam, o que é que tradicionalmente se segue? Algo que já aconteceu há 80 anos: fascismo, nazismo e… guerra com a Rússia.
Bem sei que a História não se repete, mas deixem-me fazer umas aproximações históricas:
A) Guerra Civil Espanhola (ensaio geral para a II Guerra Mundial) = desmembramento da Jugoslávia e bombardeamento criminoso da Sérvia (lembram-se de Guernica?);
B) Acordos de Munique = a venda e a violação da Checoslováquia tem o seu contemporâneo sucessor no rapto e na violação da Ucrânia pelos nazis de Maidan e os apoiantes e financiadores;
C) Financiamento de Mussolini, de Hitler e de Franco na esperança de que virassem a sua sanha contra a URSS = Financiamento, rearmamento e integração na NATO da Polónia, Estónia, Lituânia e Lituânia, países que orgulhosamente honram os seus colaboracionistas que massacraram Eslavos e Judeus e que sonham com o dia em que possam terminar o trabalho genocida iniciado pelos seus avós.
E como terminará esta loucura? Desconfio que terminará com um duplo pesadelo para a União Europeia: ao mesmo tempo que descobrirá que o seu suposto seguro de vida (os E.U.A.) é um tigre de papel, receberá nas ruas das suas cidades um exército de neonazis ucranianos foragidos da fúria das forças armadas russas e cheios de amor para dar às suas robustas “democracias”. Já lá diziam os Clássicos: “Cuidado com o que desejas, pois o que desejas pode vir a acontecer”.
Google translation,MOD:
When the West’s economy collapses and the structures – moral, ethical, cultural – of its societies crumble, what traditionally follows? Something that happened 80 years ago: fascism, Nazism and… war with Russia.
I know that history does not repeat itself, but let me make some historical approximations:
A) Spanish Civil War (dress rehearsal for World War II) = dismemberment of Yugoslavia and criminal bombing of Serbia (remember Guernica?);
B) Munich Accords = the sale and rape of Czechoslovakia has its contemporary successor in the kidnapping and rape of Ukraine by the Maidan Nazis and their supporters and financiers;
C) Funding by Mussolini, Hitler and Franco in the hope that they would turn their fury against the USSR = Funding, rearmament and NATO integration of Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Lithuania, countries that proudly honor their collaborators who massacred Slavs and Jews and who dream of the day when they can finish the genocidal work started by their grandparents.
And how will this madness end? I suspect that it will end up with a double nightmare for the European Union: at the same time that it will discover that its supposed life insurance (the USA) is a paper tiger, it will receive an army of Ukrainian neo-Nazis fleeing the fury of the Russian armed forces and full of love to give to their robust “democracies”. The Classics already said: “Be careful what you wish for, because what you wish for may come to pass”.
The artillery shells landing on pregnant Orthodox Christian Women in Donbass will have Martin Luther King and George Floyd….and Black Lives Matter written on them….
No, I think it will have rather Macron, Sarkozy, Hollande…and Bonaparte as usuall writen on them…
No..those shells will have the name of Black Lives Matter President Barack Obama written on them…after all, that gruesome photo of that young Russian Orthodox Christian Mother and her fetus that was blown out of her womb was a direct consequence of Obama’s terrorist policy in the Ukraine. It was done with Obama’s approval…..updated to General Llyod Atkins-another well known Black Lives Matter supporter.
@War for Blair Mountain
And what else gives the Russians to avenge all those crimes than a Ukie attack on Donbass. Russia should decimate those Nazis along with their Anglozionist trainers so that hundreds of body bags would return to the US and the UK
Yeah…I think it’s gonna be done with surgical strikes and surgical special forces insertions……Start putting them on trial for War Crimes…Iskander Missile strikes will grab peoples attention…
The enthusiasts for slaughtering the Russian Children in the Donbass is coalition of Black Lives Matter Supporters….the creepy squeaky voiced Caroline Orr….. and Bush Family Acolytes such as Rick Wilson. These are the War Criminals on the home front. And these two moral degenerates in recent days have ramped up the vicious attacks on Tucker Carlson. Tucker is addressing the War in Ukraine tonight on Fox News….
That sounds like a response that a soldier from the Confederate States of America, equating MLK JR and George Floyd involved symbolically with the deaths of Christian Orthodox Women??
Leave him with this obsession with black people… He will tell you that it is MLK who is at the origin of the support of the West for the slaughterers of Beslan…
It’s very funny these Westerners for whom the Russians are not white enough to be Westerners, but are too white not to look like “others” there!
Fortunately, the real Russia, the mother Russia, the one that gave birth to Hannibal, is actually distinct from this psyche of Western production!
Hannibal Gurevich was a child slave from Cameroon eventually adopt by Russian Royalty. His descendants in England look like members of the Swedish bikini team. The African genes are highly diluted for sure-and there is a reason for that. Perhaps Vladimir Putin should import a million or two Africans a year-all males so as to make the Neo-Stalinists such as you very happy…
I have two Family members in the US Army….General Lloyd Atkin’s 6 month indoctrination program made it very clear to the Native White Working Class Troops that the Democratic Party’s war on Slavic Donbass will be waged in spirit of Saint Martin Luther King….and Saint George Floyd…and the sacred Black Lives Matter…
Black Republican Condileeza Rice has made made the case for bombing Slavic Russians in Donbass in the name of Saint Martin Luther King-for years.
Re a minor incursion – remember what they did to Sadam in the first Iraq war. Goaded him to attack Kuwait and then…
Jacob, you wrote the absolute truth. King Hussein of Jordan recognized the US trick and warned his friend, Saddam Hussein, who ignored the advice. Hussein gave a very revealing interview, printed in the Dallas Morning News back in 1991.
If the hot air changes kinetic and UkroNazis attack LNDR, I expect the following.
1) Russia rains thermobaric missiles at the trenches, precisely strikes command posts deep inside Ukraine, completely close the Kertch Strait & partially closes the Black Sea. With EW in action, all NATO assets in and around Ukraine will be dysfunctional. Those ‘Trainers’ from UK, US & co scurry away like rodents. All of Ukraine east of the Dnieper River will be vacated, to be filled none other than by LNDR forces.
Sanctions from hell will take center stage.
2) Post-kinetic: what would Russia do? Absorb the vacated land into Russia proper or recognize it as an independent pro-Russia country? Both ways, there is a huge ecinomic cost for Russia to make this land economically self-sustaining. It will be more challenging under sanctions from hell.
3) NS2 will hibernate + Russia will be disconnected from SWIFT, no Russian gas flows to Europe. Europe followed by US + UK will slide into deep recession. The era of Petrodollar ends, completing the collapse of the Empire.
Take a look at reactions to Tucker and Clint Ehrlich’s comments on current US/NATO-Russian situation.
You will almost think majority of US elites/politicians/journalists are evil, insane and stupid. They don’t give S for right/justice or humankind.
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/latest-tucker-carlson-ukraine-segment-sent-us-liberal-media-political-elites-meltdown
I hope they will not bring catastrophe to our planet. And one day, those evil will get what they deserve, in hell.
I wonder why the USA instigate so much to Russia, and they have no clue that if Mr. Vladimirovich Vladimir just pull the plug on stoping the supply of fuel to the us nuclear power stations so the USA have a taste of how is to live without energy, I am sure they will come on their knees for forgiveness.
If that happens probably 50% of the USA will become in total darkness! Even if a few of us living in the USA would be detrimental! But I am all for it!
[I am listening to Russian experts on the Runet and most of them are twisting their finger by their temple and saying the US Americans are batshit crazy and that they are putting the entire world economy at risk of chaos.]
Just curious, who are the experts whose opinion you trust and would recommend? What are some good Russian language sources, be it on YouTube or just in general? Solovyov and his regular guests? I ask this unironically.
This was all carefully constructed by Putin and Lavrov. The 5 security demands, the way in which these were given, the pressure, the talk around it, the follow-up call by Putin, the unrelenting interviews by Ryabkov and others: it has brought the Russian logic to the forefront. They knew the answer would be no. The point was to hear it, and to see the same thing happen as in 1989: ‘give it to us on paper’ – I’d like to remind some of the question by an NBC journalist who dared say to Putin “but nothing’s on paper”, to which Putin sarcastically applauded. This is payback time.
The American reaction was predictable – trying to take back centre stage, take attention away from the crux of the demands by only talking about Ukraine.
The Russian reaction was to egg this on with even more army exercises. Pressure again, also encouraging wrong thinking (the US and EU are easily dropping back into their own narratives – the Russian logic evaporates to them. Until Russia strikes – wider than Ukraine; not as an invasion. But the troops are ready to show and warn off the NATO reaction to its rocket bases in Eastern Europe being obliterated.
Two more indicators: Jan 4, China got all the 5 nuclear powers to reiterate that they wouldn’t start a nuclear war. Timing? Then, today, Russian parliament OK’s discussion of allowing Russian status to the two Ukrainian breakaway provinces. Me thinks, I’ve seen this logic before; the combination of juridical, UN, international law, readiness of its own military. This is Lavrov, this is Putin.
Is Russia Evacuating Its Embassy In Kiev?
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2022/01/is-russia-evacuating-its-embassy-in-kiev.html
I thought this comment by the editor is interesting:
Quote:
Russia started removing non-essential personnel from the embassy after this Christmas Eve incident …. Russia says Molotov cocktail thrown at consulate in Ukraine, protests to Ukraine authorities (Reuters).
I do not know if this fire-bombing happened or not. But I do that anti-Russian tensions in Kiev and elsewhere in the country are at an all-time high, and precautions are being taken.
And if the Russian embassy is evacuated.
You can take this to the bank.
A Russian military invasion and/or major military operation will be occuring within 24 – 48 hours.
End Quote
Then there’s this:
CIA Director Met Secretly With Ukraine President Zelensky Last Week
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2022/01/cia-director-met-secretly-with-ukraine.html
There you go…Zelensky just got his marching orders. And since Russian intelligence knows precisely what is going on in Zelenksy’s office at any given time, Russia knows them, too.
And this:
Russia, Belarus to practice scenario of employing entire military potential — top brass
https://tass.com/defense/1389547
Quote:
“A situation may emerge when the regional group’s forces and capabilities are not sufficient for reliably ensuring the Union State’s security and we must be ready for its reinforcement. An agreement has been reached jointly with the Belarusian side that it will be necessary to engage the State’s entire military potential for joint defense,” Fomin told a briefing for foreign military diplomats.
End Quote
As to the “false flag” allegations:
Was Last Week’s Report That Russia Was Planning An Attack Against Its Own Forces A False Flag Planted By Kiev Intelligence Officials?
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/2022/01/was-last-weeks-report-that-russia-was.html
Translation: Kiev fed it to CIA, who fed it to Fusion Natasha, who fed it to CNN, who fed it to the American public. At no point was it ever true. https://t.co/pgyxMWz4t1
— Nebojša Malić (@NebojsaMalic) January 18, 2022
And this:
More Russian Landing Ships Leave The Baltic Sea Amid Growing Fears Of Invasion Of Ukraine
Six Russian amphibious warfare ships have left the Baltic Sea in the last two days.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/43914/more-russian-landing-ships-leave-baltic-sea-amid-growing-fears-of-invasion-of-ukraine
Quote:
The Ropucha class ships, which can each displace close to 4,100 tons with a full load, are Soviet-era landing ship tank (LST) type vessels that are able to carry as many as 10 main battle tanks or other heavy armored vehicles, 340 troops, 550 tons of cargo, or a mixture of all three. They have large clamshell doors in their bow allowing them to deposit these payloads right on the beach. They can also help attack targets ashore and defend amphibious landing operations with their onboard arsenal of automatic cannons, artillery rocket launchers, short-range surface-to-air missiles, and close-in defense systems.
End Quote
Re the Iranian President’s visit to Russia:
Russia reveals it is discussing a joint naval exercise with Iran and China
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3163945/russia-reveals-it-discussing-joint-naval-exercise-iran-and
Quote:
The Pacific Fleet said that a naval group including a missile cruiser, a large anti-submarine warfare ship and a large sea tanker had anchored off Chabahar, Iran’s only oceanic port, on the Gulf of Oman.
End Quote
And another random statement from Biden, who appears to be as bad as Trump as putting two words together to make a sentence:
Ukraine tension: Biden says he thinks Putin will ‘move in’
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60061300
Quote:
Asked at a news conference about the threat of a Russian invasion, he said: “My guess is he will move in, he has to do something.”
End Quote
Finally, the US has failed to meet its obligation to respond to Russia about Russia’s proposals. That means it’s over for any more “talk-talk” instead of “war-war”.
US not to present written response to Russia’s proposals during Friday meeting — Blinken
https://tass.com/world/1390515
Well, the stage is set for February. My guess is we are 2-4 weeks away from war.
Weather and lunar phase> Kiev, Ukraine, Forecast “cloudy” light snow and no moon 22 to 29 F on 31 January, FWIW.
Do you remember McCain when he was singing : Bomb , Bomb, Bomb Iran. Now someone need to sing : Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Poland and Romania if you want peace and no nuclear war. That is only solution. Everything else is just bla, bla ,bla. Russia must nuke those bases!
@sorcerer
So we should all turn into John McCains? Wishing other people get bombed is the most despicable act. In any conflict, civilian causalities exceed military ones by a factor of 4-5x.
I said to nuke those military bases with missiles. Not civilians. That is only way to save your and my ass and all our children. If you do not slap bully, he gonna bullying you to the rest of your life.
once the moneychangers make all the money they did not during the great lockdown, this will all be over. shipping shortage, chip shortage, all shortages… everyone, including China, Russia have their hands in this till
that’s the game played. the loser? the common man and his savings
The largest untapped wealth (on paper) is the pensions of the Baby Boomers. Or, perhaps The Powers That Be want a war to remove any obligations to the Baby Boomers because they’ve bankrupted their own nations.
A Russian View on Geneva Talks – Russia Gets No Respect.
https://youtu.be/Izdrub62xu8
It is nice to have principles but heck in a time like this it might be worth considering missile hits at strategic points deep in Ukie territories like Larchmonter45 wrote (around Odessa for starters) combined with some action on the ground by sabotage groups (local or pretend local). I think this could create enough chaos to tip the balance in Russia’s favor. Local ordinary people might find the courage to revolt when they feel an invisible hand has their backs. I have seen this work in my country. The media whether MSM or alternative doesn’t cut it in an orwellian style run country like Ukraine. Russia shouldn’t put boots on the ground for now. Until she will be called in by local government. My 2 cent.
Ukraine and Russia are an abysmal distance from where I live. In fact, the entire collective West is a long way off. On television, this subject passes quickly only. I don’t know more details than put in this and other blogs. But Petro Poroshenko’s return to Ukraine is an important detail that is being ignored in my humble opinion. He was probably put there to assume the presidency of Ukraine at the behest of someone greater.
And if I were to bet, probably a lot of Ukrainians have Russian passports, or Russians have Ukrainian passports, and I wonder what will happen, if battalions with these people are formed voluntarily under the flag and in Donbass uniforms? Technically they are Ukrainians, so it will be a civil war and not an invasion. And if US/NATO provides aid to Kiev, Russia and China can offer help to Donbass. And I believe that technically, NATO will not be able to legally interfere in an internal conflict, and Russia will probably enter there, which will guarantee the non-violation of NATO or the USA in this conflict in an open way. A kind of Russian-style Arab Spring this time, maybe Maidan 2022!
I agree. I think it possible the Russians will run an operation as they did in Kazakhstan. Clean up the fomenters of the coup. Round up the Svoboda and Banderstan. I would think the Russians know who they are and where they live. Target their homes with missiles and drones,etc.
In Kazakhistan, there were only a few hundred people to round up, so it only took a few days. In the Ukraine, it’s more than 100,000 people. So the Ukraine would require a long operation, and anyway, it’s more likely the Nazis will scamper across the border into Poland, Slovakia, or Hungary, and just sit out a temporary occupation while NATO gives them more training.
I believe the Nazis have been discredited in their own eyes, and I hope the Russians can do something positive with that.
Americans for War
Is the Ukraine/Russia conflict a US foreign policy goal?
https://technofog.substack.com/p/americans-for-war?token=eyJ1c2VyX2lkIjozNDU0OTc4LCJwb3N0X2lkIjo0NzM3NDc0MiwiXyI6IkFUQXNTIiwiaWF0IjoxNjQyNjI4NDg2LCJleHAiOjE2NDI2MzIwODYsImlzcyI6InB1Yi0yNzQ3NzEiLCJzdWIiOiJwb3N0LXJlYWN0aW9uIn0.UcHbBTmDKW4Aa_W8pHWRit3T0jhdp28lUFAEotoVVKU
Biden in press conference suggesting a “minor incursion” by Russia into Ukraine would be met with a lesser response, CNN’s Matthew Chance (who’s in Kyiv) just reported that Ukrainian officials “watched those remarks with horror”
The Ukrainian government reaction to Biden’s words at such a tense moment wherein Kiev believes some 120,000 Russian troops are stationed near the border is said to be one of “shock” and disappointment, per CNN further:
A Ukrainian official told CNN’s Matthew Chance that he is “shocked that the US President Biden would distinguish between incursion and invasion” and suggest that a minor incursion would not trigger sanctions but an invasion would.
“This gives the green light to Putin to enter Ukraine at his pleasure,” the official added.
The Ukrainian official said he’d never heard any nuance like this from the US administration before.
“Kyiv is stunned,” he added, referring to the Ukrainian government.
Biden hinted at disunity within NATO, which is something that hawks and pundits have feared… that Putin aims precisely to use the troop build-up to drive a wedge between the Western allies.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky himself has admitted much of the extreme war rhetoric is “big hype”. He said this to his own citizens…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/biden-my-guess-russia-will-invade-ukraine-i-dont-know-if-putin-decided-what-he-wants
I’ve got two comments on Biden’s statement.
First, Biden is incoherent most of the time, like Trump. He rambles. Thus, his comment – which frankly does make sense, depending on what he means by “mild incursion” – should be ignored.
Second, everyone is going to use this to accuse Biden of “appeasement”. This is why they’re complaining. If Biden doesn’t go “all in”, he’s going to take a political hit. This means he’s even more likely to go all in.
As an aside, Zelensky’s statements are equally meaningless. He does what the CIA, the neocons and the Ukie hard liners tell him to do. He’s a nobody who’s between a rock and a hard place. He either gets his country destroyed by Russia by attacking Donbass or he gets kicked out for not attacking Donbass. So nothing he says matters.
The problem isn’t that the war rhetoric is “hype”. The problem is what is this hype being used for. If it’s used to actually get a war started, then it isn’t hype.
I don’t think Biden was incoherent when he spoke about the minor incursion. It looks more like he let slip something discussed privately. If you look at the video, it seems he speaks off prompt, raising his eyes from the script. It may very well be that’s the plan, and that a major war is not going to happen in Ukraine. I think the pant-wetting from Kiev is well deserved. It serves them well. I guess their morale is not going to improve much from this.
I must say I’m a little suspicious of many theories written here and elsewhere about the West using this as a plan to do the “great reset” or some other form of game changing. Wars are very impredictable, and I think there would be some cool heads among the US and european governments that understand.
Time will tell, but this ridiculous posture from the Department of State from late last year up to now may have been only that, a macho posture to impress Europe into thinking NATO is stills worth something. As time goes on, the european governments will be brought to reality, and slowly defuse the Ukraine situation. We’ll see.
What Biden said was immediately followed up by his comments about “keeping NATO on the same page” and the fact that, as Alexander Mercouris analyzed in his video yesterday, the EU countries are wobbling about applying sanctions.
So Biden’s comment was more about what kind of sanctions the EU would go for if the Russian attack on Donbass wasn’t an attempt to take over Ukraine. Nothing about that suggests that Biden won’t apply as much sanctions as he can. It also says nothing about whether Ukraine attacks Donbass, which is the only reason Russia would be attacking Ukraine in the first place. And in that event, Russia is likely to destroy the Ukraine miilitary almost completely which is likely to trigger the maximum sanctions.
So there’s nothing there to be complacent about. But you’re correct: we’ll see.
Update #1: Biden sparks confusion, cleanup on Russia-Ukraine remarks (The Hill)
Update #2: White House Has To Issue Statement Cleaning Up Biden’s Disastrous Remarks On Russia, Ukraine (Daily Wire)
Update #3: Why Biden just suggested Putin will invade Ukraine (Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner)
WNU Editor: It was near midnight in Kiev when President Biden made his “minor incursion” remark. But I know tomorrow morning the Ukraine media and government are going to shit in their pants over these remarks (see tweet below for a sample on what will happen).
And even though the White House is trying to clean up these remarks, the damage has already done.
And as for what the Kremlin is thinking right now …. you can take this to the bank …. they are laughing and rolling their eyes. They see a U.S. President who is threatening Russia with extreme sanctions, while inviting an incursion!
Bottom line. The Kremlin is strategizing on how to take advantage of the situation, and more importantly, what can they extract from US Secretary Blinken when he meets Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov in Switzerland on Friday. And if they do not get what they want, all bets are off when the Olympics in Beijing are over.
http://warnewsupdates.blogspot.com/
I have a suspicion that the American Gov’t now want to eliminate their Ukraine Frankenstein UkroNazis as they a thorn in the Ukraine – NATO side as there can be no settlement in Ukraine while the Ukronazis are around. Hence, they will be sacrificed by being directed to attack the Donbass region. They will be led down the garden path to be slaughtered by the Pro-Russian forces in the Dombass.
Poroshenko will replace the Ukraine Comic Zelensky and the Minsk Agreement will be implemented. That will resolve the Ukraine issue.
However, Russia will then be demanding settlement of its Ultimatum from the US and NATO. By this time NATO will expose cracks and some may leave NATO like Hungry and possibly Italy among others. Germany, don’t want a war and may even eject US Military Occupation in this cause finding an arrangement with Russia. There will be much activities as the Atlantic Alliance will not take this lying down but what cards does it have to play in an environment of a Fiat Currency falling in value and a receding economy.
American Industrial production potential is all now in China ans it cannot fight a was as it is now some say a Monkey with a hand grenade. What can it do with that? We wait. Far fetched. Maybe, Saker.
I agree with most of your comment except for this part: “Poroshenko will replace the Ukraine Comic Zelensky and the Minsk Agreement will be implemented.” I really doubt that will happen.
Also I disagree that the Donbass forces will destroy the Ukraine military on their own. Russia is going to have to help, even if they don’t put boots over the border. I can’t find a decent estimate as to the relative size of Ukraine forces vs Donbass forces, but I suspect it’s at least 2-to-1, depending on how the Donbass forces are estimated. I’ve heard 60-70,000 Ukraine vs 15-30,000 Donbass.
In the furor over Russia destroying the Ukraine military, and the demonization of Russia that will occur, the Minsk agreement will be dead as the JCPOA. It won’t matter since eastern Ukraine is essentially under Russia’s protection anyway. The only advantage of Ukraine implementing the Minsk requirement of autonomy for Donbass is that it gives Russia what it wants and has demanded all along.. I don’t see the West wanting that or agreeing to go along with it. Poroshenko will be just another puppet of the CIA and the neocons, so even if he wanted to (which I doubt massively), the same dynamics apply: the CIA, the neocons and the Ukrainian nationalists will crucify him if he tries.
Bottom line: Minsk ain’t gonna happen.
Point taken as per your second para. The Third para is open to question as we wait. Thanks.
Blinken vs Lavrov, what a match. World watch Wrassling was never like this.
Don’t we have i the US any actual players? Or diplomats? Are they all gone?
If so, we are f@@@ ed.
It’s a shame Russia’s large submarine fleet doesn’t already field hypersonic missiles. If it did, this would be a done deal.
I can’t help but think Russia’s military response, if it does come to that, will be a strike at undersea cables and/or satellites and/or cyber attacks, probably combined with things like no fly zones in Ukraine, Syria, etc.
If Russia degrades the USA’s capacity against China in the pacific or Iran in the W Asia, or both, then the same thing holding USA back now (over-exposure) will be even greater as soon as the strike happens. So it would have a limiting affect on the response options for America’s retaliation.
(I think)
If Russia can avoid the ‘war in Europe’ the west wants and replace it with a global scale setback for the empire, that would be quite the spanking. And less invasion-ish for the media to spin Putin into a Hitler analogue.
Also, there is the arctic and pacific to consider.
Things certainly are looking bad and dangerous.
But perhaps this is a good time to take pause and re-examine our basic assumptions.
I’m sure there are people like me who are asking this basic question: ‘If the RF Ultimatum is of such — as Janis Joplin said it in ‘Mercedes Benz’ — ‘great political import’, why were the talks conducted by, with great respect, deputy ministers and not the relevant ministers themselves? Were there expectations that they would indeed fail and if so, who suggested that they be conducted by the deputies? Now, I am biased but I think it was the Russians — who have infinitely more finesse than the Americans. There is something going on re the Ultimatum that the world is unaware of. As it is, ‘Silver Fox’ Sherman’s supremely able boss, Blinken, is having travel to Moscow to meet Sergey Lavrov — in geopolitical terms, Blinken blinked. Nobody can know what the outcome of the ministerial meeting would be but I’m hoping for the best ie no shooting in the near future, especially not in Donbass.
It’s also instructive that in the video of the Valdai Club meeting (thanks for putting the video up Saker) the first thing Sergey Ryabkov mentioned was strategic security — nuclear bombs (already) in Europe, INF — and only then followed by Nato expansion, Ukraine, borders, et cetera. To me this clarifies RF’s priorities vis-a-vis its security. Thus I’m also hopeful that Blinken, perhaps quietly, will be agreeable to the removal of said bombs (verifiable by RF, of course) from places like Germany and Italy; so no need to send the newer ones already in the works, ver B61-12, over to Europe.
Two things give me hope, or cause for hope, that things will not get worse:
It’s just a glimmer but two Euro vassals (DE, FR) have now grown a rudimentary spine and taken a more conciliatory approach towards RF with Germany sending the now less strident Annalena Baerbock to Moscow, to be followed in due course by her boss and Macron acknowledging, albeit belatedly, the simple fact that Europe needs Russian gas. Well, better late than never, I suppose.
The country formerly known as Turkey, ie Turkiye, has shown a studied disinterest in what is going in between the RF-US and is offering to act as an intermediary between RF and the Ukraine. Is it joining its stable mates Germany and France in taking baby steps in charting its own course re European security? If it is, then the US will only be left with its kapo, the UK, to deal with RF in the matter of the Ukraine; not exactly, from the US point of view, something to be cheerful about.
I see the UK and Turkey as simple ‘traditional’ opportunists, seeking to gain from short-term weapons sales and training contracts. I cant see their current activities as any serious strategic or geopolitical move… Certainly the UK leadership is first class at muddling along, at amateurish attempts at geopolitics, so whilst it might look serious, they will run for the hills when any real fighting starts…and leave the locals to sort out the mess…
The EU politicians are all compromised by being paid agents of the US Deep State…someone mentioned a while back on this site that a US Diplomat even boasted about this, quite openly…
I also recall how angry the State Department was with Trump at the beginning of his Presidency, where a DoS official complained that up to that moment, the US Diplomatic service only needed to slam its fist on the table and say, “you will do this” and the EU politicians obeyed…whilst Trump was undermining this process…so i dont see Germany or France …or any EU politician, daring to disobey the US Deep State…the Americans can just sanction imports of German cars, French wines, Dutch cheese, Belgian chocolate etc…
Russia still has sanction over Turkish tomato exports and can switch on and off the tourist traffic to Turkey, at will…and Russia does not actually “need” NS2. Useful revenue earner but if push comes to shove, the gas can easily be redirected to China… then also there are the strange trades with exports of oil and rocket engines to the USA….so Russia has many options to hurt the collective ‘West’
So, basically those Ukro terrorist groups coming into DPR need to be defeated… somehow. It can make the difference between a big war and this “incursion” Biden spoke about.
Worst case those groups are followed by a full Ukro army blitz attack. Hope the big stand off weapons ready to go. They will probably be needed and be a more “cost effective” choice.
“Wait! What?? So a “minor incursion” is fine??????????”
Remember how Saddam was suckered into attacking Kuwait? With two years of Covid economic shocks, what better way to cover for the looming economic crash than to blame it on war, and better yet, to be able to blame the evil Russians. It is to be hoped that the cooler heads will prevail and not fall prey to traps.
These days you can fall into a trap just by waking up in the morning.
Trying to read the tea leaves, I think the following are significant but i am not sure just how much etc. So I list for interest and consideration.
1. As noted in another item, there does seem to be a cautious sort of sentiment coming from the Atlantic school of US commentators- the old east coast style of conservatives. The general theme seems to be USA is overstretched and needs to focus or to be blunt the USA is not strong enough to fight Russia and China.
2. The hint that Biden said NATO is divided may be very significant. If the comment about prosecution of the German Foreign Minister is actually true then there may be some big shifts in Germany. Obviously Germany stands to lost most by a rupture in relations with Russia, so it is not a stretch to assume some powerful interests would be opposed to conflict or even massive sanctions.
3. Turkey stands to lose heavily in a NATO conflict with Russia. Loss of tourism and exports hurt big time in 2015 and Russia could really punish Turkey in Syria. If Russia teamed up with the Kurds, Turkey would undergo a lot of pain. Additionally, if it came to a hot war, Turkey would be the first target – way way ahead of anywhere in Ukraine, simply because they control the Bosphporus. If push really came to shove and there was a real kinetic war with missiles flying, I think we can assume that Turkey would be a very early target.
4. Small but with US bases, Bulgaria and Romania might find themselves at risk, even if only from loss of oil and gas.
5. I suspect that none of the southern NATO members Greece, Italy, Spain or Portugal would be enthusiasts for war with Russia- just too far away. The US would need to give lots of sweeteners, which they probably cannot afford.
6. France- who knows
7. The UK seems unable to govern itself just now so running a war may be difficult. Besides they are now focused on imperial glory by regaining their Chinese empire with jolly little Aussie battlers at their back. Perhaps more seriously, the dialogue between Australia and UK defence people seems significant in the sense that it does involve China.
8. China, China, China, China. The huge issue. If a kinetic war starts and China is allied to Russia, the chances of a western victory are minimal, China is turning out large warships as if they were potato chips. The USA would need to divert a huge number of resources to defend their interests in the Western Pacific.
9. The who economic structure of the west which seems vulnerable, although just how much i am not sure
I think someone wrote about it – the west may be willing to lose a small war in order to gain propaganda material against Russia. All about optics. This could also explain the hysterical screeching about a Russian attack any minute now.
Could you explain what you mean by the term “kinetic warfare”?
If the topic of “special importance” is “Pinch” – a high-precision strategic missile weapon (HTRSO) that has penetrating values from a specialized NON-NUCLEAR warhead (WB), i.e. Warhead of kinetic damage – I understand.
Some kind of “kinetic warheads of insufficiency for detecting” unacceptable disaster “/victory, this is only part of the call-up of the armed forces …
In addition, the mass production of this type of weapon (carriers) is expensive, at least for nowr. )))
Kinetic warfare means “real warfare”, with weapons, violence. To differentiate from economic, social, cyberwarfare.
We see how it’s harder to reset the agenda as if it had been Western proposals that had been sent first. I guess Russia’s sense of security is stronger now than it was two months ago.
At the moment it looks like it will end with a whimper rather than a bang.
The US has few options- it has openly stated that it is unwilling to fight Russia on behalf of Ukraine or Georgia (or even the post 1997 NATO members). I presume the US is considering if they are able to fight Russia without going nuclear. The answer is “No”, so the only option is going nuclear which is a non-option.
The crazies might still win but when faced with reality I think they will see sense too.
It amazes me that so many are focused on Ukraine when the Russian demands of the US/NATO are in no way limited to Ukraine. I would argue that Ukraine is not even the focus of Russian demands. As I stated before, I do not believe that the Russians will strike directly at Ukraine (which is the reaction the US is seeking), but will instead demonstrate their ability to destroy offending NATO facilities/formations that have been moved into Eastern Europe and which the US refuses to remove voluntarily.
The only real question is whether the Russians will opt for a “demonstration” of their capability to back up their stated red lines or if they will simply move straight to an all out “lightning” war against NATO. My guess is that they will seek to provide a demonstration in such a convincing fashion that NATO will simply crumble. The Aegis Ashore sights in Romania and Poland seem like the most likely targets for this demonstration, but who knows. As for Ukraine, absent NATO backing (which they will lose immediately after the coming Russian kinetic action), the Ukrainians (and the Poles) are going to become a lot less hostile. If they don’t, well they will be destroyed.
I’ll wager your favorite beverage that Article 5 is about to be directly tested by the Russians…and NATO will be unable to respond in any meaningful way. Not just because they lack the capability, but because they lack the will. Nobody in Berlin, Paris or Brussels has any stomach for war with the Russians. They will fold. Europe will not fight for Ukraine. If they do, I hope everyone stocked up on suntan lotion…Its going to get awfully bright outdoors.
“I’ll wager your favorite beverage that Article 5 is about to be directly tested by the Russians…”
Yes, it does look like this will happen.
Ukraine is part of the issue of NATO expansion because it is next in line for admission, despite what Biden says about “ten years”. Worse, Ukraine is right now being supplied with weapons and NATO training exercises.
The Russian response to the failure of the treaty proposals will not be an attack on Ukraine. The only attack on Ukraine which will occur is when Ukraine attacks Donbass again at the urging of the CIA and the neocons – which in my view is almost inevitable. The only concern I have is whether the presence of NATO military exercises during the conflict will result in NATO invoking Chapter 5 (even thought technically Ukraine does not quality under Chapter 6.) This would force the US to step in. It may be that this is the CIA/neocon plan.
I also don’t think Russia will unilaterally attack NATO installations at this point. More likely Russia will place strategic weapons in positions as relative to the EU/NATO as the NATO installations are to Russia.
I wanted to bounce an idea that’s been in my mind since hearing the news of Poroshenko returning to the Ukraine.
It is known that Zelensky has been waging a “war” against some of the oligarchs passing laws and this culminated in an attempted assassination against him this past Sept. 22nd 2021. Also the reason for Poroshenko fleeing the country.
It is also well known that the far right militants think Zelensky is soft on restarting the war against the DPR/LPR.
Could we be seeing the groundwork being laid for a false flag / assassination of Zelensky to be blamed on the Russians as the casus belli to restore Poroshenko, begin economic sanctions and kick off the renewal of the conflict against both the East and Crimea with support of NATO?
I really hope that there is intelligence on the ground watching these people as this would be absolutely horrible. Also getting out in front of this possibility would be important.
I hope I’m wrong but all this hysterical talk about Russian invasion can’t just be for pretend. My fears are that it’s mass psychosis / preparation for worldwide condemnation to blame the Russians while keeping the focus away from the contact line. Also a convenient way to rally the Ukrainian citizens who are weary of the war.
I pray for both sanity and peace, as well as for honesty and truth to prevail. May the liars and manipulators achieve nothing but failure and misery.
Interesting theory about a Zelensky assassination. I hadn’t thought of that. That would get rid of two birds with one stone – 1) get rid of Zelensky and replace him with someone more amenable to the CIA/neocons and more hostile towards Russia, and 2) get the Donbass war started.
I’m sure Russian intelligence has a network that includes Russian under the beds of all the factions. This is why I think Russia has been moving its military assets. They *know* what the CIA/neocons/hardliners are planning. They might even know the time-table.
Saker,
A somewhat personal question. I live in Moscow right now with my wife. Do you think it’s safe to stay here in the event that a military conflict breaks out? Or should we be looking to move somewhere else? I would imagine in the event of full out military conflict between US and Russia, it would be quite dangerous to be in Moscow. However, if it is just a proxy war via Ukraine, what do you think?
Not Saker. IMO, even though there are exceptions in history, no one would fight as hard when protecting their capital. Should Moscow ever gets attacked it will not be from large armies of the past. Let’s just say a quick death is preferable than to slowly rot away on a destroyed planet.
Honestly, you don’t have much to worry. The US, Russia and even China will not be directly fighting against each other. The fighting will be confined to proxy wars; 4th and 5th generation warfare. The greater danger is living in those nations that are easily targeted by stronger nations.
Really doubt a major nuclear war will be escalated to. But anything is possible. It can’t hurt to make preparations, say an open air ticket to a country where you have some bank assets. As soon as major conventional fighting between Russia and NATO/US starts occurring, hop a plane and stay there until it blows over – or blows up.
Absolutely safe, which can not be said about the United States.
Even if we assume a global nuclear war, then there is probably no safer place in the world than Moscow. Even taking into account the South and North Poles – Antarctica and the Arctic.
As far as I know, unless nuclear war erupts and the US launches 200-300 nuclear warheads at Moscow alone to saturate defenses (then nowhere is safe in the world) Moscow is very well protected , probably one of the safest place to be in Russia. The first S-500 battalion is already operational there (can detect AND target stealth, hypersonic and even nuclear warheads at reasonable distances) + S-400, S-300, powerful EW (electronic warfare) all integrated and networked to disrupt and destroy incoming weapons. They also have a lot of air raid shelters and civil defense is well organized. That being said, it would be scary and anxiety inducing, I won’t lie to you.
Agree that the plan is to make RF intervene (this has clearly been the plan from 2014). Is the ‘minor incursion’ permission slip a trap? Kind of like Glaspie telling Saddam Hussein that Kuwait was an internal affair?
Agree also that Russia is prepared, but can you imagine the anti-Russian propaganda storm if an intervention happens? I fear that the west is soooo desperate that, at this point, anything will do to deflect from the looming disasters (whether debt/economy, failed covid policies, losing hegemony, the crisis of capitalism… so much has accumulated!).
The US just got Slovakia to approve a terrible military treaty, which gives the US unfettered right to do whatever it wants, with no oversight. During all of 2021, military equipment was moved across the country to the eastern border. Really spooky.
The Rhetoric from the Americans is to push inflation and oil prices. My 2 bobs worth.
“…I’m not so sure he has, he’s certain what he’s going to do,” Biden said. “My guess is he will move in. He has to do something…”
Biden
This is the US president on a guessing game before a potential conflict. He’s projecting his insecurity on Putin, “I am not sure…he’s certain what’s he’s going to do.” Putin has known for years what Russia is going to do, the drafts presented to the West were the result of a long-term strategy, where all calculations have been made about lines of attack to and from Russia, and political, economic, and military reactions from the West.
His best guess is that Puting will “move in” to 404, he fell short of parroting Blinken by adding that “Once Russians are in your house…difficult to get them to leave. There you have the US president in need of astrologer, and the Sec. of State doing a white painting job on the US long history of interventions, wars, coup d’etat, invasions on fabricated reasons, etc.
Lone Wolf
Paul Craig Roberts gave the most concise and best analysis of American motives in this whole affair. Blinken says he wants “peace” but he lies and clearly wants war because every sentence uttered and policy moves made by Washington are but new provocations to Russia. There are NO incentives for de-escalation ever given and indeed not the slightest hint that Washington even recognises Russia’s legitimate concern for its security against ongoing Western aggression. Washington will escalate the provocations until war breaks out and disingenuously blame Russia when it happens. He gives historical precedents for previous such actions preceding WWI and WWII.
Pat Buchannan offered the most rational and potentially effective solution to end the crisis: Admit the legitimacy of Russia’s grievances (Arming and encouraging Ukraine to war against Russia and Russian ethnics within Ukraine, sanctioning all trade between Russia and the West without ever the slightest pretext) and simple solutions (Implement Minsk 2 and promise to stop adding NATO adversaries on Russia’s Western and Caucasian borders most notably Ukraine and Georgia, but also Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc) without making a big ostentatious deal about it all, recognising that Russia merely wants security and not the need to humiliate the thoroughly dishonorable American state.
Alas, peace and co-existence are NOT the objectives of American foreign policy with Russia. They could so easily have them, and the respect and gratitude of the rest of the world that would come with them, but they truly want war (perhaps not fought by American troops but their brain-dead proxies like Ukrainians and Georgians) with an objective to expunge the Russia state, or any semblance of social order within it, and any potential future competition it may pose for the American plutocracy and its designs on seizing and exploiting the natural resources within the wreckage of that society. Totally ignoble and deceitful, but typical, objectives of the American leadership, which, by the way, has stopped representing the people of its country for many decades now. The only good outcome that can be envisaged from this crisis is if the plutocracy and its world empire falls and the country becomes rules by some new order for the benefit of its people not its dictators.
If the Anglos were to get reasonable according to the judgement of sane people it would mean the immediate acceleration of their demise because everyone would recognize that the tiger has no teeth anymore. For the Anglos to be reasonable means just what they are doing since a few years: pretending that they are strong and resorting to clandestine ops of subversion. Regime change already is out of their reach. Their plan is to get the global reset done while they still appear strong and control Europe.
Germany and France will not obey and turn East.
A bit strange that the 11111g roll out and
planes not flying because of. Looks as if air space is being cleared.
My 2 bobs worth.
Saker,
Do you think (or know) if there is an organised group of rebels within Ukraine ready to take control of the central government in the event of a war with a subsequent collapse of the ruling junta? Do they have enough piano wire to hoist Poroshenko’s carcass from a lamp post, seeing he has made a visit to the country, probably in anticipation of seizing control for himself. I’d predict more likely a surprise necktie party for Porky by the rebels. Sorry if that’s an indelicate question but I am not “woke.”
This is easy. Russia was given a green light for a minor incursion AND has been assured it won’t be cut from SWIFT.
The US did all the hard work of lining up all those those ultra-nationalist units, emboldened by new hardware, at the front.
Media on both sides have name-dropped ‘false flags’ as a safety word in case things get out of hand.
Special forces from all over NATO are embedded in the Ukrainian military used to help limit how far Russia should go before it stops being a ‘minor incursion’.
CIA did all the leg work basically, all Russia has to do is follow the script and everyone will go home happy.
No that does not mean annexation, occupation, or total annihilation (jeez…). You know, keep it simple, some missile barrages here, a couple of special operations there, a few drone strikes in between…
The Ukrainian / Russian conflict (war) is a US policy goal. The US has pushed for war to feed the gluttonous Military Industrial Complex. This has been true since the fall of the USSR. Truthfully before; the US has been meddling in Ukraine far longer though. The US backed the likes of nationalists Stepan A. Bandera enough to sow dissent and internal strife with the goal of destabilizing the USSR and then Russia.
The US has been expanding NATO often repurposing former Soviet bases in the process. The US does not care about its previous commitments. The US has no clear objectives. Nor does the US fully grasp the unique position Ukraine plays in Russian history.
In Russian and Ukrainian the name “Russian” (Русский and Російський) means “Rus of Kyiv”. In many ways Kyiv is to Russia what Jerusalem is to Jews. Russian ties to Kyiv are not as overt as Jewish ties are to Jerusalem, but they are strong and powerful nonetheless and over 1000 years old. When Putin says there is no difference between the Russian and Ukrainian people it is not just hyperbole. Russian nationalism, starts with the founder of Kyiv and the Kievan Rus from the 9th Century. They have long ties to Ukraine. Russia does not see Ukraine the same as it sees other countries. Russia feels it is the guardian of Slavic culture or Viking/Slavic culture. This is especially true of Ukraine.
Russia has also stated since WWII, the next conflict will not be conventional. They know they cannot go toe-to-toe with the US in a kenetic war. Russia is prepared psychologically to go nuclear like few other countries. It has the means to do so like no other country. Also, revelations from former Soviets like Ken Alibek show the Russians have a large biological capability that they would use as well.
The US has cynically used Ukraine to get at Russia with little actual regard for Ukraine.
The US is not acting in Ukraine’s interest nor with true appreciation for the fire it is playing with.
The combined greed, hubris, and ignorance leading the US to war is staggering. We should be using sophisticated, nuanced diplomacy instead of hamfisted caricatures little better than Rocky and Bullwinkle cutouts of Boris and Natasha to inform our policy back by naked greed.
The US needs to stay out of Ukraine especially in the way it has inserted itself over the decades since WWII and even more since the fall of the USSR. The US approach is going to open a hellfire no one wants.
“Russia feels it is the guardian of Slavic culture or Viking/Slavic culture. This is especially true of Ukraine.”
interesting comment. You know that they have found many runes in the area of Ukraine. From where I am living (stockholm archeopelag) also there was alot travels and trade going on since 1000 years ago. Also very interesting that the flags of Sweden and Ukraine are very similar.
You also have an old swedish village in Ukraine- Gammalsvenskby
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gammalsvenskby
Anyway I hope things resolve in peace with the russians and ukraine people. It’s the most natural step for peace. I wonder really if the russians really should trust china. There are alot of ties between US and China in the tech and medical industry.
Нек порите чушь, “викинг” хренов.
Украина несет русскую культуру, Византийскую веру и вражью Католическую веру, причем весьма откорректированную под себя.
Окраина Руси (украина) – традициями ничем не отличалась от других народностей Центральной, Северной Руси и Великого (русского) княжества Литовского, в которое входило Киевское княжество.
Варяжские князья (гипотеза) никак не повлияли на обычаи, если не брать великий шаг – принятие Православия/православного христианства киевсим князем Олегом из-за политических преференций
The Saker’s coverage and commentary of this developing situation are useful – helps to have someone who knows where to look and why.
Things are looking a bit chaotic and unpredictable, I imagine a bit like events cascaded into Exercise WWII all those years ago.
A question in the back of my mind that just won’t go away – how do the Globalists benefit from all of this?
My view on how events could unfold :
– Russia will announce formal recognition of DPR / LPR.
– Ukraine will declare this to be a formal breach of the Minsk-2 agreements
– Ukraine will say it is entitled to reclaim the territories and start an offensive
– The offensive will be bloody and it is likely that the Ukie forces will be able to penetrate well into the DPR/LPR territory and entrench themselves in the cities
– Russia will declare that Ukraine is in breach of Minsk-2 and that it has a responsibility to protect the populations in the Donbass
– The Russian forces will not focus first on the frontline but will trigger a massive attack on the supply lines and the Ukrainian military infrastructure, and the command centers. It will be raining hell. Bases in construction will also be obliterated.
– Once the supply infrastructure and reserves of the Ukie military have been eradicated, Russian troops will move forward and clean up the cities. Massive cauldron encirclements will be performed. At this stage it is likely that the bulk of the Ukrainian army will surrender. Small groups of fanatics (Azov) will continue to fight to the end. It will be bloody.
After that we’ll enter a totally new, unknown stage. USA will sever Russia from SWIFT. Anything may happen : nuclear provocation, attack of Kaliningrad. Either USA acknowledges defeat, or it’s World War 3.
Unlikely.
Russia is unlikely to chose a path that will likely kill a lot of people.
You are not embarrassed that for acceptance into the bosom of Mother Russia, a necessary condition is the desire of the citizens of the republics, which should be determined by the will of the people – a positive result of the vote of the People’s Referendum of the DPR and LPR (LDNR). Preferably above 80%.
)))
And the referendum “For joining Russia”, as it was not, is not there until now. And 50/50 doesn’t suit us.
If a new iron curtain separe Europe from the Asia. Europe will be plundered dry to the bone. Pension fund, gas price, patents, printing machine of $ will permit to buy everthing big with value.
It will be also a close space to crush violently the revolt of the people.
And Beyond just a space to let living a false narrative to give those “elite” the feeling to still exist a while (rape children in masonic lodge, Davos gathering, etc…) with hope to discover the super weapon to make their come back.
Psychopaths love to create chaos. Also, chaos and drama turns people away from more important things happening elsewhere. Besides, it nicely feeds fear and anxiety as covid fades.
I feel like Scarlett O’Hara at Seven Oaks, when all the men and boys suddenly go war crazy. All the alternative websites are full of warmongering, and seconding the warmongering, and feeding the panic.
Be careful on the warmongering comments on any website. It all could be generated by AI.
“…it’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion…”
Does this mean that my plan of cutting Ukraine into two, Galicia and non Galicia is approved by U.S.?
Finally U.S. is seeing sense.
This is great news.
”It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion..”. But ”timeo Danaos et dona ferentes”
I wish i could believe it. Do you remember that it was the same that was said to Saddam by the American Ambassador? ”We don’t care about Kuwait. It’s a difference between Arabs.” And the moment he moved in, the thunderball struck..Either it is a theatrical way for (some,not all politicians in) the USA to get out of Ukraine, while in the same time they save face with extremely loud protestations or it’s a trap.
The US & NATO wars have never been waged primarily for humanitarian reasons. The only question is whether a hot conflict in Ukraine will benefit the Western elites with their global agenda and ambitions, and the answer is clearly yes. The rest is fluff that can be spun by Western media.
Biden let the cat out of the bag. There’ll be no US assistance for Ukraine in the LDNR if the Russians decide to take a closer look. Anyone who has lived or worked with those of a sociopathic narcissistic persuasion will recognise the traits in the US – poke, prod, irritate, hope for a reaction, and then slip out when the going gets tough.
Putin is always one step ahead.
Russian officials like to talk and they might be good at it but someone should remind them that a picture is worth a thousand words – maps showing NATO expansion, satellite photos, etc. should be presented every day to the media!