I have go to work for the rest of the afternoon, but I want to remind you all of the following: when the real Ukie offensive materializes (maybe later tonight, maybe not) the Novorussians will most definitely retreat along certain axes. This does not mean that they will be “defeated”, only that they are retreating which is a defensive tactical maneuver. So, please, let’s not have a repeat of the general panic attack of last Spring, okay? By itself retreating indicates nothing at all, it is neither good nor bad, it is neutral. To evaluate/assess a retreat we must look into the “fine print” of the military situation and understand why and how this retreat has been ordered. Questions such as “did the enemy force go beyond the 2nd tactical defensive echelon” are absolutely crucial for any evaluation.
I just want to make sure that when the hurray-patriots and Putin-bashers resume their hysteric you don’t get fooled by their antics.
Gotta go now. See ya’ll later!
The Saker
Saker Message:
Russia Today.
Tanks enter Donesk.
http://rt.com/news/202879-ukraine-donetsk-shelling-tanks/
No, tanks fire at suburb of Donetsk
Ukraine claims Russia is preparing to attack.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ml3qUW_ztZg&feature=youtu.be
“Ukraine claims Russia is preparing to attack”
If Ukie claims were true, Kiev would be occupied by green men and thousands of Russian tanks by now..
TruthfromUkraine facebook channel claims 75 % of Novorossia border is now a battlefield as Kiev is doing a major offensive (or something).
“Reportedly there are now battles at 75% of the front line between Ukraine and #NAF freedom fighters in the east.”
A handy reminder.
Anonymous said…
Ukraine claims Russia is preparing to attack
yeah the RUSSIANS ARE COMING for what id it now November? Russians been attacking for 9 months now.
Watch how they will name convoy sizes and configurations but never manage to get a single photo not even in daylight. And then watch every time the “terrorists” beat them they say it was 10,000 RUSSIANS. Who all put on the Cloak and teleported back over the border instantly.
I really think it is fair for Russia to help anyway. I DO HOPE they find USA and NATO men and equipment DEEP in Novorossiya and it goes on TV everywhere. Ideally something like a NATO marked Polish fighter jet shot down. After dropping a bomb. Just one,for evidence. That is something they can take to the UN.
I worry that the axes of retreat may have been targeted with long range ballistic missiles in anticipation of Novorossiya’s tactics.
If this proves to be the case, then I will fully expect Russia to intervene with her own ballistic missiles, sending them all the f*****g way to Kiev if necessary.
Ukraine Hunta became quite predictable in their illcit actions.
“Ukraine claims Russia is preparing to attack”
Translation: Ukraine regime is preparing to attack.
It’s not 100% true, dear Saker. Novorossia army is now sitting in well prepared field fortifications so any retreat means it would be “naked” in plains and enemy in these fortifitications. Fortunatelly, ratio of powers (2:1 for Ukies at worst) and sufficient artillery power of NAF exclude any possibility of successful Ukie attack – yesteraday’s disastrous attack on Yasinovatsa proved it.
Some might like this interview of Strelkov by Marat Musin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52gUwKajDn8
The main point is that Russia took a radical geopolitical move by incorporating the Crimea, and has not taken major changes in social and economic matters. This is untenable.
The second point is that Russia has been moving slowly on these required economic and social changes.
GIVI SITREP
Bot translation
Summary of Givi, airport, 07.11.2014
“Yesterday was a very difficult day for us at first, and then for them.
By City yesterday they struck two packages “Grad”, very badly hit home store.
On our side, 1 – 300 minutes [1 injured].
The enemy was killed yesterday one tank regiment commander in the rank of colonel and 9 officers, destroyed 4 tanks, 2 “Castle”, 2 artillery batteries, destroyed a column in the sand – 4 “Ural” with ammunition, 4 tanks and BMP 2.
In small armed clashes were destroyed detachment, in a military unit in Avdeyevka destroyed 2 radios, radar, which was engaged in radio intercepts, infantry – about 160-170 people.
In the evening there was an attempt break tanks and infantry fighting vehicles.
The shelling continued, at any time, we are ready to come to the defense and on the offensive, “- said Givi.
An incisive analysis of Singapore’s uncanny strength, presented in Robert D. Kaplan’s 2014 book “Asia’s Cauldron: The South China Sea and the End of a Stable Pacific”, is worth quoting here, since Singapore, with its 3.3 million population, almost the same as that of DPR/LPR, has only 4% the land area of Novorossiya:
“Singapore’s independence began less with a declaration of such than with the building of a formidable military. ‘Spider-Man needs a suit to make him strong; we needed an outsized armed forces,’ explained a defense official. While Singapore has only 3.3 million citizens, it boasts an air force the same size as Australia’s, whose population is 23 million. ‘Like the Israelis, the Singaporeans believe in air superiority. They pay their pilots well. They have AWACS,’ a defense official from a neighboring country told me. In addition to its one hundred or so fighter jets, Singapore has twenty missile-carrying ships, six frigates, and, notably, six submarines — an extraordinary number given that far more populous countries in the region like Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam each have fewer. ‘Nobody can squeeze us through a blockade’. It is not enough that Singapore has these air and sea platforms. For it is deadly serious about using them effectively. Because Singapore lacks empty space for military training, it regularly has four air squadrons training in the United States, ground troops training in Taiwan, and helicopter crews training in Australia. ‘We will not be hemmed in by our neighbors.'”