MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) – Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran’s borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.
“The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran,” the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.
He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran “that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost.”
He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.
Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran’s military infrastructure in the near future.
A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf.
The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed since December 2006.
The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the region.
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Commentary: General Ivashev is an interesting figure whom I happen to know personally (although not intimately; we met in the mid nineties and I have not seen him in many years). On one hand, he is closely connected to the Russian military intelligence service (the GRU), while on the other he is definitely an outspoken critic of the USA and of NATO. He clearly would have an interest in spreading any information detrimental those whom he sees as implacable foes of his country
Also, I have to note here that even though General Ivashev has been warning of a US attack on Iran many times already, this attack has not happened so far. Of course, this could be due to the fact that it was called off at the latest moment (I believe that this exactly what happened on at least one occasion).
Whatever the motives of General Ivashev’s most recent declaration, his warnings should be taken very seriously because he is *exactly* the type of figure which the GRU would use to leak out classified information. Here is why:
1) General Ivashev has numerous connections inside the otherwise highly secretive GRU.
2) General Ivashev is popular and trusted among many top GRU officers.
3) General Ivashev cannot be sanctioned or, for that matter, even investigated for being the source of any leaks
While General Ivashev is hated by the Imperial press corps for being a “hardliner” (which he definitely is not, I can vouch for that), and while his latest statements will be dismissed or ignored, I would take his warnings extremely seriously.
The Saker
thanks for the heads up on this, vin. adds some weight to Ritter’s assesment for april, also. I haven’t been able to find any other confirmation of the Ike being pulled back out from it’s scheduled january (PIA) in Norfolk. it looks like Ike was replaced by the Truman and the Stennis just completed some testing out of Puget and could be in route, so that would put two groups there.
tim
VS,
Weren’t there similar warnings in Aril or May of 2006 or 2007 out of Russia? Were the earlier warnings an error or did Fallon put a stop to the war plans?
At any rate, the news is ominous.
How does this tie in to the renewed fighting in Basra and south Iraq? Is this an attempt to secure supply lines before an attack?
If so, would the U.S. call of the attack if the Mahdi Army remains capable of wreaking havoc.
Saker,
The carrier info is garbled, as Mudshark said. The Lincoln is en route to replace the Truman and there are several other carrier groups more likely to deploy than the Stennis, which just got out of a refit and needs to work up. That said, this info fits a larger pattern. The Saudis were doing drills to deal with the unexpected release of radioactive materials (read Bushehr, which has been fueled with Russian -supplied uranium–presumably the US would warn the Russians to get their techs out of there). Wait and see–thanks and keep up the good work.
Saker,
Ivashov’s post is from the March, 2007 Iran War Scare–look at the date: 17:31 27/ 03/ 2007. That’s why he has the Eisenhower and Stennis in it. Last year this time, they were in play.
Thanks, john. I do remember hearing something about the Lincoln recently, which must’ve simply went in one ear and out the other.
For anyone that didn’t get the Ritter interview via vin’s elist, a friend of mine has uploaded it to google video.
JeezUS!! This thing is one year old?!?!? No wonder it sounded like, well, Ivashev said one year ago.
mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa…
I am going to leave this post up for another couple of days (for all to see my disgrace), and then I will shoot it.
Sorry guys!!
The Saker
Why don’t the Russians contribute more to the ITDC (Iraqi Training and Doctrine Command?)
The IA staff college and NCO acadamies could really use Russian Officers and senior NCOs. The Iraqis have asked for Russian help.
The Russians have offered help to the ANA (Afghan National Army.) Karzai has threatened Pakistan that he will take Russian help (and Indian help) if Pakistan does not stop supporting the Taliban and AQ. But so far, Karzai has not “publicly” accepted Russian training for the ANA. Karzai probably fears political fallout within Afghanistan.
That doesn’t stop me from wishing that the ANA would accept formal Russian training assistance.
One reason I am such a big fan of Putin is that the Russian and Israeli military and intelligence services have close relations. Russia is one of Israel’s closest allies. The Israeli military benefits from joint training exercises and exchanges with the Russian military. Both countries also sell each other advanced armaments, as well as collaborate on military technological development.
Russia is also a fierce enemy of Takfiri Jihadis. From what I understand, Russia has been helpful in applying pressure on Iraq’s nuclear program. This is one reason that President Bush remains a big pro Putin fan. This said, many of Bush’s fellow Republicans (including McCain) and Democrats are much less pro Russian than President Bush.