By Amarynth for the Saker Blog
Let me first give the links to the debate in question (and this is a sitrep, so it is more freewheeling than a serious article for the Saker blog).
We’ve been talking about Ritter’s 180 swing in his coverage on both the SMO-404 and the Russian capabilities.
This article, titled “Ukraine War Has No End in Sight” gives the Ritter view post his 180: https://www.energyintel.com/00000180-d669-d410-aba9-f66dbd120000 and there were three prior videos where this view developed. But this written form is good enough.
Andrei Martynov weighed in and Larry Johnson weighed in on various occasions and on a professional basis. Gonzalo Lira weighed in his casual style. On the Saker Blog, I weighed in during discussions and even analyzed a few paragraphs of Ritter’s article.
Even Pepe Escobar had to retract a quasi ‘Ritter sentence’ that he used. This was his short and creative retraction. “Martyanov is right on Western Ukraine. I should have emphasized the conditionalities – as it stands a 404 “New Model Army” is American wishful thinking.”
All of these people (including myself) were 180 opposite to Ritter’s view and I for one asked for evidence of this New Scary NATO army because clearly, Wunderwaffe came to mind.
Yet, there is no discussion and Ritter did it again. This time in an interview with Sputnik here:
Both Andrei Martyanov as well as Larry Johnson weighed in again.
Before I quote from their work, let’s try to answer the question of Why? Why are we responding to Ritter in this manner? I will give you only my personal perception. I view Ritter’s 180 as pushing NATO talking points and even spreading Ukrainian manure. He assumes a static position from Russia. After his 180, his tone changed and he presents NATO as the All Powerful and backed by the US Money Machine and Weapons Machine, as Invincible. He creates new armies out of thin air, and professes knowledge of the Russian thinking and possible future actions which he cannot possibly know. We can then discuss whether this is pure deception of his mainly western audience, or purely disingenuous, or a project based on a think-tank or something. I hope it is none of those, and that he will enter into discussion and debate with his peers. (Note Johnson’s article quoted later in this report). If not, we have to question his whole basis for pumping American Wishful Thinking, as well as the substance of his presentation.
I’ll go back to an older quote from Martyanov: “That is why when I hear that some piece of metal and a pile of increasingly diminishing US Dollars are going to make any real tactical, operational, let alone strategic difference in 404, other than being blown up or taken as trophies, I smile. Even LDNR people today complain (in Russian) that most of the US equipment when even not-expired and up to date, often doesn’t work and breaks down. I know, for true American patriot such as Scott it is difficult to accept this fact but in the last 20 years it goes without saying that institutional rot completely engulfed America’s strategic and operational thought and, and I wrote three books on that, US increasingly produced weapons which like Javelins or Littoral Combat Ships, or F-35 or Patriot PAC 3s are not really suited for a serious war against competent enemy who, in addition, like Russia, has all means to see the enemy and destroy it.” http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2022/05/on-my-brief-response-to-scott-ritter.html
Let’s go to Larry Johnson’s latest titled: Debating Scott Ritter.
He deals with the new funding, western weapons supply, training and intelligence sharing. And he posts a video of Gonzalo Lira, who in his casual format understands these matters. Here are some points but read the whole article:
- Money may make the world go around but it does not magically produce trained, enthusiastic troops willing and capable of using such weapons.
- Ukraine’s problem right now is not a lack of equipment. They had combat aircraft, helicopters, tanks, artillery and drones. Russia destroyed a significant amount of that materiel and killed the soldiers and pilots who were trained to operate those systems.
- Scott Ritter sees the training of Ukrainian troops in Poland and Germany as a critical variable that could really hurt the Russians. Training reinforcements on new technology might be a potential game-changer if the situation on the ground in Ukraine was static. It is not.
- Scott also asserts that intelligence sharing gives the Ukrainians an edge. When you provide intelligence on Russian troop movements, locations or plans, there is an assumption that the recipients of that intelligence will be able to do something to hurt the Russians. How did that work out in Mariupol? How about fending off the Russian missile attack in Desna. In my view, sharing intelligence with Ukraine is an effort in futility. Am empty gesture that will not change anything on the ground.
How to actually understand this Hot Potato?, and it is an important one. The Ukraine SMO is only but a small representation of what Russia means by stopping the growth of NATO, indivisibility of security, the security balance in Europe, and most important, military-technical measures. And then, one has to bring into the calculus that China is solid behind Russia in the thinking, and further, that the US pre-amble to actual kinetic action in the Ukraine, is now being duplicated around China. The dead give-away is that SHOULD in Biden’s sentence. Remember the many ‘ifs’ and ‘shoulds’ that we saw in the runup to Russia entering the Ukraine. “President Joe Biden said Washington could be directly involved in conflict should China try to take the island by force.” They are again trying to project and create a condition that is not necessarily there.
And this is the tone change in Ritter’s work. He is projecting a condition that is not necessarily existent and presents it as fact.
We have to understand that NATO is now being presented as the ultimate force projection by the small collective west. Those familiar with Martyanov’s work understand that this is but a paper tiger and the boogyman (although with destructive ability) under the bed. This is a projection and the small collective west only has a boogyman left to threaten the world.
Here is another such projection, this time with a clown: Klaus Schwab has just introduced President Zelensky of Ukraine to the World Economic Forum in Davos with a glowing tribute saying that all of Europe and the international order stands with him.
Lira’s view is important here, albeit not professional. He asks the question, Why is it Absurd that the Ukraine is standing up a million man new army? (Short, 7 minutes or so).
For comments, I remind you, that this is not a personality contest. As Johnson says – it is a substantive matter. So commentators, please be reasonable and kind, and don’t tell us who you like most. At least present knowledge of the substance of this matter. From the commentariat, let’s keep this one closely focused on the topic.
There is a bigger picture here. From here and there in Europe, we see that everyone is now desperately scrambling for a peace plan. A contributor sent me this one from Italy titled Now, Italy begins backtracking on its promises and extending an olive branch toward Russia. https://tfiglobalnews.com/2022/05/22/now-italy-begins-backtracking-on-its-promises-and-extending-an-olive-branch-toward-russia/
I smiled, on two accounts. This peace plan is Minsk redux!
And secondly, why this reach for a peace plan now? Besides worrying about economics and gas and oil, it is another containment of Russia. They all know Russia will win in the Ukraine, the way Russia perceives it, handsomely. So, everyone desperately wants to devise new conditions, because the fear is that Russia will not stop. So, they want to devise peace now, and send Russia back to Russia. The news is that we are in a world-changing epoch, and Russia will not stop but take her full part in this world-changing epoch, preferably peacefully, but if not, military-technical.
USofA has a long history of equipping, training and forgetting armies in any shithole of this Earth.
For the sake of discussion, let`s assume there really is some big UA army in training in the West (no idea where 100k soldiers can train in hiding, but whatever). Let`s assume it is equipped by Western arms.
Several armored divisions of Abrams, Leo2, modern APCs, maybe even some figher/bomber squads. Now let`s assume, West will never give latest tech to UA soldiers, so let`s say, it`s even not UA army at all. It does not matter.
Let`s say they are thrown to the eastern front. And now my questions:
How they are gonna make it there, if there are no locomotives to get them to the front?
How are they gonna solve the logistics if even soviet tanks have to be repaired in Poland/Slovakia, etc.?
How are they gonna supply them with fuel, ammo, food etc?
How are 70 tones tanks gonna move in Ukraine fields? And through bridges which can not sustain such weight?
Is the West prepared to accept such failure of western weapon systems? Ukraine is lost already.
Could this change of view from Ritter be influenced by the Poles admission now as Ukraine citizens thereby making them the new non-NATO aligned NATO army in waiting? They will be technically Ukrainians.
Another lamb for slaughter on the US Canaanite altar.
But your points remain true: If there is an army of such magnitude waiting in the wings, how to mobilise it?
There’s a bigger picture that supersedes the amount of money and weapons to be supplied to the Ukrainian army. And I believe some commentators are afraid to mention it for fear of being labeled bigots.
The bigger picture is what the Zionist Neocons, who are behind this conflict, intend to do with Ukraine.
http://biblicisminstitute.wordpress.com/2015/03/17/the-truth-about-the-conflict-with-russia/
And given their inordinate power in DC, many see this conflict as being long term – especially because of these people’s ability to manipulate NATO, which could extend as far as destroying the entire western world to achieve their hidden goals.
“ These people “ ? The Biblicism Institute referenced in this comment is an virulently Antisemitic website. The failure to differentiate between “ These people “ and the deeply entrenched political and economic elite, the ruling class, which is responsible for the 105 year war against Russia is evidence of prejudice and not political analysis.
Virulently antisemitic??? Says more about you than about this site. It has tons of information and provided me different missing links in the whole Khazar story.
Mr Estrine, hate to burst your little bubble, but I gladly will; (Khazarian) AshkeNAZI “Jews” are not semetic.
However the people that are slaughtered every day and had their land stolen for the settler’s illegal homes are 100% Semitic.
“…the deeply entrenched political and economic elite, the ruling class, which is responsible for the 105 year war against Russia…” I get your point; but who are these “elite”? Or who is/are their puppeteers?
Consider:
“You must understand, the leading Bolsheviks who took over Russia were not Russians. They hated Russians. They hated Christians. Driven by ethnic hatred they tortured and slaughtered millions of Russians without a shred of human remorse. It cannot be overstated. Bolshevism committed the greatest human slaughter of all time. The fact that most of the world is ignorant and uncaring about this enormous crime is proof that the global media is in the hands of the perpetrators.” ~ Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn
Thanks for the link. The Zionists plan to do to Ukraine and Russia what they’ve already done to the rest of the West.
I touched on this point in a prior comment on this site and in my view it should be as thoroughly explored and discussed as the actual SMO itself. As per Ritter, I read another comment somewhere that surmised his turnaround was coded advice for the Russians to increase/expand their efforts to ensure their victory in the face of unyielding support to ukraine from the U.S. Obstacles notwithstanding it is an avalanche of support especially considering the economic plight of the U.S. It doesn’t have this money to give but does so anyway because everything is on the line for the neocon fools and it’s do or die, they must win this or fade into history – they won’t win but they are desperate. Ritter’s lack of engagement on this topic is weird, but I don’t discount that premise at present because I watched a video where bidet (biden) crucified him in the Senate Chamber prior to the Iraq invasion over his findings that threatened bidet’s efforts to justify the invasion from his position as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee – a vile moron publicly degrading a professional soldier and expert weapons inspector. https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4842887/user-clip-1998-biden-chastises-weapons-inspector-ritter I’m near certain Ritter has no love for the deep state or bidet and his current corrupt and inept administration. I just can’t imagine his about-face is motivated by some patriotism toward the current “commander in chief” or as a dis toward his well respected and very knowledgeable peers. If this is the case, maybe that’s why he remains disengaged. Perhaps he is of sufficient status to at least cross the radar of the Russian MOD through one or more third party(s) or at least he may believe that is the case. Much remains to be seen.
NATO Blues: “As per Ritter, I read another comment somewhere that surmised his turnaround was coded advice for the Russians to increase/expand their efforts to ensure their victory in the face of unyielding support to ukraine from the U.S.”
Russian g’ment & military do not need a Scott Ritter to warn them about things they already know, they knew that the Ukraine army was planning a huge assault on the Donbass & warned the US they would not stand by & allow it – hence how the US knew that Russia was going to “invade” Ukraine as they put it. Ritter is no one to be giving advice to Russia & neither are they paying attention to him, he’s irrelevant. He is only relevant in this info war, because now he is downplaying what he said earlier & calling it a lose for Russia, where earlier he was calling it a win. And what makes people suspicious is that this is no casual change of opinion on his part.
What is happening in the Ukraine is far from unimportant; in fact, it is pivotal to this entire uni to multipolar world that the Saker, CAF, et al have been discussing for several years; but in terms of the greater picture, it is the chance for people to actually see the naked emperors on their computer screens for the CGI that they really are. Turn off the green screens and these are people who are coming to you from someone’s basement and the picture “adjusted” in Silicon Valley.
Yes correct.
And the picture is much bigger still. Perhaps readers should look more closely.
Under the closed airspace in Davos China is very much enjoying the party and bragging of its net inflo of $440 billion foreign investment (joining the trillions in western plant, capital, and intellectual property already there).
https://www.weforum.org/videos/davos-annual-meeting-2022-china-investment-and-economic-outlook-english
Does this look or sound like the “next target” for the west?
I can’t wait to hear his this will be rationalized. Oh wait I can actually.
Well, don’t look far.
The Chinese delegation at Davos refused to participate in the Zelensky dog and pony show and walked out. Media coverage called this incident a clear signal of China’s position on Ukraine.
Touche’! Next I will look for them to begin seizing the foreign assets of these criminals who are preparing to attack and destroy them too. (Not and Not)
You see Amarynth, walking out of a presentation in a big dramatic and utterly meaningless incident that will be picked up and covered ad nauseam by the MSM and used to fuel the narrative…this is exactly what they want people to look at, while looking away from everything that actually means something. It is entirely meaningless except to fuel the narrative. If it had any meaning at all the MSM would never give it light of day.
The reality of what China truly is, is something very different that most on this site just don’t want to really consider because the ramifications for our future are just to terrible to contemplate.
The elite ruling China love money more than anything else. That’s why they love the Cabal and their Zionist wizards so much. They have a lot in common.
Enough people must wake up to the reality of who and what the true enemy of us all really is or we have no hope for a future.
So yes please Amarynth do look “far.” Don’t stop at the staged drama.
“The elite ruling China love money more than anything else.”
I would say the elite ruling China have responsibility for 1.300.000.000 their citizens. Not to mention 3000 billions USD they have in US government bonds. One wrong move and everything goes down.
You have a very poor to no understanding how the Chinese mindset approaches situations like the current one. And it seems you haven’t even tried to think trhrough what your suggestions would mean for Russia and the world, inclunding you and me!
The Chinese wait, keep strengthening themselves with Western capital and technology, let the enemy make silly moves while keeping him in the dark about their next steps and by maintaining whatever ties they deem useful and by maintaining plausible deniability on the surface in whatever they do.
Think of Lenin’s quote that “the capitalists will sell us the rope that we hang them on”. That’s what China has been doing all along. Offer the Chinese market to western companies, use Western capital and tech to develop and abolish poverty while overtly, covertly, voluntarily and involuntarily ammassing lots of advanced western technology that will soon result in China being actually independent from Western technology and a tech leader in most fields. Compare that to a non-strategy to cut all ties and go into a silly all-out economic warfare where everyone only loses and nobody wins! What would be gained from that? Why would China or Russia want to go under in an all-out global economic collapse when there are ways to do better than that?
China has her own set of priorities and targets , e.g. Taiwan and they are in no hurry to show their cards. China benefits economically from the Ukrainian war and the sanctions and at the same time it’s Russia’s lifeline. Make no mistake: IF China were to adopt even a part of the sanctions on Russia that the West did/demands, Russia’s economy would collapse within weeks!
The Chinese know very well that without Russia, they cannot hold their ground against the West. But they play it smart, not brute. And nobody is helped (incl. Russian and Chinese people!) if the global economy totally collapses! There is a nuclear option not only in the military field but also the economic one and like in the military field, it’s an option that nobody in the world would gain from.
Yes, there are and wil be areas where Russia’s and China’s interests will diverge and even collide. But for the foreseeable future they depend on each other. United they can (make a) stand, separated they will fall.
Everything else is just noise, delusion or wihful thinking.
Damn Selena you are absolutely correct. Of course this is all based on your deep understanding of Chinese cultural, social, political, military, economic history and language correct? How well is your spoken Chinese? How many degrees about Chinese language do you have?
Ah right… as surmised. More inane drivel by illiterate Western fear-mongers who know or understand little about China, much less can even use chopsticks. “Wooooo the Chinese elites like money” unlike American elites, UK elites, Russian elites, HK elites, African elites, oh I forgot in your country or wherever the hell you come from the elites disdain for money and thoroughly serve the people with filial humility?
“That’s why they love the cabal and their Zionist wizards so much.”
I don’t know where you get this impression that Chinese people love the Zionist west or is somehow part of the controlled opposition. You should go live in China for a few years before opening your opinions to scrutiny.
Pathetic.
“ABC?” OK.
My comments make you angry? And your response is to attempt an ad hominem attack against an anonymous electronic message? That’s not really possible.
Perhaps you are not even a real person. Maybe you are a pen name for Amarynth or one of the other “moderators?” No matter.
I suspect-but don’t know-that vile angry comments like “yours” are used against speakers like me while some supportive commentary may be “filtered” out.
In any case my response is not to or for you. I respond for benefit of other readers who may be watching the bullying and intimidation tactics here with interest and who may have been thinking about ideas similar to mine.
First, never never be intimidated by those who “accuse” you of “not having a degree” or the “right” degree, or of not speaking the correct “language” of more than 7000 or so on the planet. This is an attempt to move the focus away from the point you are trying to offer, as well as to make you afraid so you will stop making that point. It is fraud as a response and has little relevance to anything at all. And that is what is truly “pathetic.”
That said, I have two degrees, both from brick and mortar schools which every reader here would recognize instantly. And the most important lesson I learned in seven plus years is that the person makes the degree, the “degree” never makes the person. Look at all the highly and oh so well educated criminals calling the shots for the City of London-Wall Street-Israel Cabal, together with their former classmates all over the world, including without question China and yes Russia too. Consider the twisted array of highly educated fools, clowns, liars, and criminals behind the Covid fraud and now Ukraine. Degrees? Please.
I married to mainland Chinese and was issued one of the very first 10 year visas to China when that program started nearly 10 years ago, have traveled extensively throughout China (with Chinese relatives and friends, not foreign tourists). I can communicate but dare not call myself fluent in Mandarin. I reside in Asia but not in China.
My circle of Chinese friends include people from the very wealthiest to ordinary working class people. Among the closest of these, the man from Beijing who paid cash for a $10 million dollar home in the southwestern US shortly after opening his crystal manufacturing plant in Oregon. This is a sister operation to his massive existing plant inside the Beijing special economic zone. Others include two chemists who worked many years in the west, lost those jobs, and went to the US where they now live on savings and whatever other employment they can find.
My spouse family are all in Beijing, father in law passing recently. He and his wife still lived in the little box inside a giant box containing hundreds of other little boxes and built before the cultural revolution. A middle manager in a company there, he was dragged out publicly, beaten, humiliated, and forced to apologize for being a manager. He survived all that and was later placed back in the same position. I promise you that, with his last ounce of energy on his death bed, he would have physically attacked anyone speaking against the Chinese government which he proclaimed “did things for the people.”
Now to close. Understand this. The Chinese have a history of suffering in poverty most of us cannot imagine. As the Russians, deep in their collective historical and personal core hate the Nazis, the Chinese hate being poor. They hate being poor as if it were a living enemy, like a Nazi. And they are vowed to never be poor or economically subjugated again. That is the deep psychological mire in which their loyalities are based.
All of my acquaintences from the wealthiest to the most ordinary-only half joking-refer to themselves as “Asian Jews.” Especially after hours of absorbing mijiu. What did they mean? The work ethic, the love for advanced education, and the love for wealth and the power that accompanies it. In some ways they are still very naive.
So I will close by saying this. Chinas deep relationship with the west, especially with the US, but also with all of Europe, will ensure that China will not, under any circumstances in the forseeable future, go to war with the west. And certainly not for Russia. They will safeguard and focus on expanding (and as discussed in the World Economic Forum video I linked to in my previous post above) their investments-plant, capital, intellectual property, and their access to global markets including high end western markets-at all costs. That IS their war.
Whatever conflicts are undertaken between China and its western “in-laws” will be negotiated, controlled, and calculated to benefit the parties concerned, no matter what public rhetoric may be offered.
They will walk the middle line, and they will walk away from anyone or anything that tries to take them elsewhere.
China is by no means the “next target” for economic or physical violence by the west. That is too ridiculous to even contemplate. Watch the video in my prior post. That is where the real focus and concern is and that is where it will stay.
Yes they can play up the drama like all the rest, walking out of meetings in full view of the world and its lying media. Yes they use the attack rhetoric with the best. But what they do compared to what they say is what matters. Keep your eyes on that ball. Again, ask Elon Musk if he feels his substantial flight to China is any way jeopardized.
Selena, while you are telling your fantastical story, kindly keep my name out of it. I don’t like what you are asserting.
In any case, this is so far away from the substance of this article and thread, please get back on track here.
Selena,
Re: “Chinas deep relationship with the west, especially with the US, but also with all of Europe, will ensure that China will not, under any circumstances in the forseeable future, go to war with the west. And certainly not for Russia. They will safeguard and focus on expanding (and as discussed in the World Economic Forum video I linked to in my previous post above) their investments-plant, capital, intellectual property, and their access to global markets including high end western markets-at all costs. That IS their war.”
This was formerly true. No longer. We are in paradigm changing epoch.
“The elite ruling China love money more than anything else. That’s why they love the Cabal and their Zionist wizards so much.”
Are you aware of what Michael Hudson and some Chinese guests opined on the changed attitude in China? The huge crack-down on disaster capitalists (what was done to Ma and the Evergrande issue, etc.)? And why Soros and gang were calling for regime change inside China for 9+ months?
The West itself has changed profoundly. Trump, and Obama earlier, started the process of the rupturing and conflict. Now China sees the writing on the wall – their wealth will be confiscated like Russia and markets denied them. The deindustrialized west wants to level mankind and bring all other great powers down to their level. China is planning accordingly, with current feverish meetings among public-private leaders, expanding non-western alliances and BRI networks, and preparing to lose their treasuries in return for nationalizing far richer western assets and IP inside China. Russia is setting the template.
Several years ago, they started the process of rerouting to an internal market, rather to a dying noncompetitive Europe or an aggressive USA with its tarrifs. The West has given them no choice. I agree your position was formerly true. But consider what was done to Russia. It will be a storm in a teacup compared to what is coming. The US is destroying Europe for its own consumption and to deny it to China and Eurasia. And still obsessed on the messianic subjugation of China and Russia and all mankind, to the detriment of all international relations and peace. Ideology has upended all former calculations. In this uncompromising environment, even millenial capitalist China will follow the trail of capitalist Russia in choosing sovereignty and security over being a helpless and dismembered plaything of the satanic West. And China will do this “not for Russia” but for its own survival.
@Selena You can only measure things up to a true platform. What is the true platform?
The true platform is Abu Gharib prisons, Water boarding, murder of Saddam and Gaddafi in public, bombing Iraq, Libya, Syria, Sudan, Somalia, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Ukraine to the stone age, millions in refugee camps, poverty and starvation, robbery of other nations national bank and gold deposits, and home made school stupidification of Western populations .
The true platform of China is non starvation, welfare progressing, no refugees, traditional schooling improving skills and intellectual abilities of the population, win-win solutions in interaction with foreign nations.
All right, now you can go ahead and measure why foreign investment pour into China. Go!
Really? That’s pretty damn awesome if so…👌💪🇷🇺
I agree. The one million man army probably comes out of honorary citizens of Ukraine from the Nazi crazies all over the world. This should be a beautiful game changer. As a child, I have seen my parents catch and kill house flies by coating pieces of old paper with a mixture of honey and glue that would attract flies who would be stuck and could be destroyed. It would be like denazification on an absolutely industrial scale. The cost of hunting and killing nazis and their spiritual kin from different parts of the world would be drastically reduced if Zelensky could be actively encouraged to raise his million (I thought he said 7 million?) man army as soon as possible and let them in some where in Western Ukraine. The workers and managers at the Russian missile factories would surely love having some extra bonuses related to working extra hours! Brilliant!!
The opinions of all should be based on real evidence & events. Remember there was no “invasion” of Ukraine but there was a “special military operation” into the Donbas Region to repeal and destroy the Nazi army of Ukraine, make Ukraine a neutral nation, & keep nuclear weapons out of Ukraine. The Ukraine army had been oppression and killing civilians for over 8 years. Russia didn’t start this conflict the USA and NATO did in 2014. With that said we can determine without doubt that Russia’s goal is not to destroy Ukraine but to build on it. To “save” a nation, even from it’s self or leadership, takes much more planning, adjusting, & understanding of affairs than the average military mind comprehends. Russian planners understood this from the beginning of their planning in 2014 to taking back the Donbas and build a new Ukraine. We can see the long goal of the planners as the rebuilding takes place behind the front lines. Constitution activities have already started in many places including Mariupol. Russia hasn’t failed the people that don’t understand the goals have failed.
Whatever happened to Biden’s son laptop, all his business in Ukraine and all sorts of evidence? I guess part of the 40 bi went to fix all of that…
There is no 100K ukrainian army hiding anywhere, unless it’s someone else’s army. But not being NATO aligned opens them to annihilation by Russian forces just the same. So I don’t see how some 3rd rate Polish occupation will help the ukrop regime.
The Poles apparently will soon have authority to enforce Ukrainian laws in their own country, such as conscription. Do you suppose there are a million men in Poland as refugees who could be conscripted by the Poles to form an army?
Damn, that’s an important point. Run to Germany, Ukie youngsters!
As for the 155mm M777 howitzers, it seems they found their way to the front already, no matter how short live Why no tanks?
This is also the point of Ritter, as I understood it from his comments. They found ratlines for fuel, people, parts and transport. The questions on repair and logistics moving them are very good though. Hard to imagine any sustainable infrastructure to supply logistcs to a *moving* front line.
Personally I’d assume militairy professionals with some experience are involved at both sides. Better not to assume stupidity if other possibilities seem to exist.
And the debate from others that are knowledgable is that these methods are not making one iota difference on the ground as it stands now. Check the last sitrep.
Here is the deal. Through Zelensky NATO runs Ukraine, and he seems very popular in the West. Winning this war is existential for NATO, the Dem Party, and now the WEF. They will keep pumping up Ukraine with money and weapons, now anti-ship weapons, until Russia they threaten Russia’s existence as a state. Russia can not let the Ukraine run trucks said to be shipping soda, cows, or food and medicine run around the country like normal, and still stop the weapons. Manpads etc. are small. You could fit a hundred with missiles in a “red cross” truck. We know the Manpads have effected Russian sorties. This war is nothing like Syria where Russia ruled the air, and the drones. Ukraine is much better equipped with modern weapons. Manpower is another thing, but if they are training in Germany, well they are going in and they are trained. Russia stuck between a real war and an operation, and they are paying for it with blood. Its existential for both sides and I am of the opinion that this is intended to go nuclear. And that is what I’m hearing from the security people around here. The little people have no idea. Even state governments have bug out locations, and we have no shelters. When we get shelters, Russia wins.
How much blood is Russia spending compared to Ukraine, no one even knows for sure what the Russian losses are, it’s simply speculation. They talk about a million-man army, but where in hell are they going to come up with a million men for the Ukraine sure don’t have them not even close, as far as Russia ruling the air they sure do for anytime an Ukraine aircraft appears it’s destroyed, and they can operate anywhere in Ukraine. As far as the $40 billion which Ritter thinks is a game change how much is old weapons that fail to work how much of the $40 billion will end up in someone’s pocket who’s training them when they lack the fuel to even get them to where they have to go, a lot of questions but few answers, I simply don’t trust analyst who don’t know the mind of the Russian generals, the situation or even the faces of the players.
There is not even a pretense of the USG monitoring where that $ 40 billion will go. Of course not, because that makes the scam easier. Look at the percentage of previous outside “aid” money got spent on real Ukrainian needs, and then cut that percentage by at least half because now the “fog of war” will hide the money laundering. So maybe $5 billion ?
After the fall of Azovstal, the Battle in Eastern Ukraine is gaining momentum. Russian, LPR and DPR forces has liberated Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts and are moving toward the Dnieper River.
The Russian advance is creating panic in Kiev, so now Zelensky and co are planning to leave the sinking ship.
Yesterday, Zelensky and the Polish President Duda, signed an agreement:
Ukraine is now to share its border and Customs control with Poland.
The plan is for Ukraine and Poland to have common border at a later stage.
If this is passed into law it will effectively end the sovereignty of Ukraine, and bring Poland and NATO into war with Russia.
Polish Citizens will also be given equal right as Ukrainian Citizens.
Polish Citizens will be able be elected as MP to the Ukrainian Parliament, be an officer in the military, be Judges and Police officers. The Polish Police will now receive jurisdiction to operate in Ukraine.
This part also erodes the sovereignty of Ukraine.
But more importantly it is a clear declaration of treason against the Democratic right of the Ukrainian people. Polish Agents will now be financed into to the Government of Ukraine, and de-facto makes Ukraine a vassal state of Poland.
To only suggest such a law, makes Zelensky and the Ukrainian Parliament Traitors to the Nation of Ukraine.
It will once more prove that Ukraine is infiltrated by Fascist Agents, commanding the male populations of Ukraine into civil war against their own countrymen.
This agreement is a Fascist dream comes true for Poland.
Poland has long dreamed of erecting the Polish Lithuanian Empire, to control the lands between the Baltic and the Black Sea (called the Intermarium) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermarium
The erection of the Intermarium was suggested by the Polish American Zbigniew Brzezinski to the US Government, as a series of traps of US invasions and wars, to surround and conquer Russia. Zbigniew Brzezinski was military Advisor to President Carter and suggested invading Afghanistan and Ukraine.
Read: The Grand Chessboard.
Its time for the Ukrainian Soldiers to take their Rifles and ammunition, drive back to Kiev and Lviv and clean up the Verkhovna Rada, and chase the Foreign Agent Zelensky and his NAZI henchmen out of Ukraine.
Yes the danger of the ‘Intermarium’ was one of the reasons for the SMO.
The million man army ignores the feelings of the ordinary Ukrainians who are not fascists and most of whom have regularly voted for sensible relations with Russia – Yanukovych 2010, Poroshenko 2014, Zelensky 2019. Each time they have been ignored, so most of them shrugged their shoulders and got on with their lives or immigrated. But it is quite a different thing to smash the country up in a pointless war (for Ukraine not the US) conscript them and make them fight for a cause they don’t believe in, against people with whom they have no quarrel.
“Ukraine is lost already.”
It isn’t lost. The East Ukraina are simply back with Mother. As for the rest, a reader posted that some Germans are already asking:
“What’s wrong with a neutral Ukraine?
Brzezinski Family are Galicia origin.
Galicians are craziest of all.
“Brzezinski Family are Galicia origin.”
Quite so, but others would suggest their role in facilitating “control” in the region as part of the ethnic policies of the Second Polish Republic, including, but not limited to, ex-legionairre immigration and social primacy (a type of settler colonialism), derived from the Treaty of Versailles and subsequent arrangements in aid of “interests” of “The United States of America” in East and Central Europe, were more salient.
This relationship with “The United States of America” and the Brzezinsky family was further developed initially by Mr. Tadeusz Brzeziński, the father of Mr. Zbigniew Kazimierz Brzezinski relocating his family to Warsaw, and becoming part of the diplomatic service of the Second Polish Republic.
This was an accelerator of “Ukrainian nationalism” in the area encouraging the formalisation of OUN/OUP informed by the observations of Dmytro Dontsov and others; the “intellectual” ancestors of “Banderists” active in Ukraine today, relations with whom were maintained by “The United States of America” via the Second Polish Republic’s Second Department (Polish intelligence) until 1939.
From 1945 were largely maintained through former members of the SS/SD facilitated by the surrender on or about 4th May 1945 in the Bolzano region agreed by Mr. Wolff – Mr. Himmler’s de facto deputy for and on behalf of the SS/SD and Mr. Allen Dulles for and on behalf of apparently no-one in particular, although through their legal practices Mr. John Foster Dulles and his brother Mr. Allen Dulles had maintained relations with the SS/SD in Germany throughout the 1930’s, relocating to Switzerland in the 1940’s until 1945.
“Ukraine is lost already.”
Well, that’s correct, at least I think you are correct in saying so. I can add to that the “West” is lost already. The EU/NATO might have the trained soldiers for war, but not the people in those countries. 70 years of “peace” in Europe had made the people timid, or not war worthy. Any NATO country attacked would collapse. The soldiers might fight, but the people would collapse, the governments would collapse. There’s no will to fight. There are lot of shouting heads in the TVs, but that’s all there’s to it. The Ukraine is different, for it is Slavs run by a Jew(s), and Slavs had been hitting each other in all history, at least the western Slavs.
I think the problem is more that it is problematic to find anybody willing to die for Europe, Globohomo and The Totalitarian ‘democratic’ regimes ruling the land. F**k that, I’ll throw flowers in front of the Russian tanks and go to jail while I wait it out :)
“Let`s say they are thrown to the eastern front. And now my questions:
How they are gonna make it there…?”
This is an argument I don’t understand at all. Everyone (Ritter included) seems to agree that Russia will inevitably prevail in eastern Ukraine. How far west will the new LOC be? Who can say for sure, but there will definitely be one. Even if it is the border of Poland, (i.e. the Russians take all of Ukraine), then getting Western arms and armor to the “front” wont be a problem: the “front” will be the new border.
Ritter’s focus (as I understand it) is on this longer term, bigger picture of Russia’s objectives in Ukraine: will Russia be successful in “de-militarizing” Ukraine? I don’t think the answer to this question is either clearly settled or obvious. It depends enormously on how long the West is willing to throw money and munitions into Ukraine, and the ability of the Ukrainians to make effective use of these resources (e.g. by receiving training in the West, reasonably safe from being bombed by the Russians).
Ritter has said explicitly that this flow of money and munitions gives the Ukrainians “strategic depth” that they did not have initially, and that they would not otherwise have. What will the impact be? Hard to say, but I’m surprised by all the voices claiming this observation (about improved strategic depth) is somehow a U-turn on Ritter’s part, or somehow obviously (or even more absurdly, deliberately) false.
Western weapons and money give the Ukrainians options they didn’t have before, wouldn’t have without them. How is this even remotely controversial?
I agree. It shouldn’t be controversial.
It would seem to me that allowing the constant resupply of the enemy with both weapons and safe training facilities is simply inviting the prolongation of the conflict, making it more a war of attrition than anything else.
Hear hear, finally some reason. If Scott wants to change his stance, which by the way intelligent people do in response to new inputs, then you can either accept or deny the stance. But my dear friends if we kill Scott because he changed his mind, for money or not I do not care, then we are lowering our self’s to the level of the idiots we combat. So give the man some room. Don’t start character assassinations. We are better and we can reason with Scott, not burry him under a ton of sh**t. My two cents.
By the way I am also puzzled by the shift but I refuse to condemn him because his point of view does not fit our narrative anymore.
@ ostro
Most people on the Saker Blog have realized the lost cause for the Ukrainian People. However Many Ukrainians and westerners are so brainwashed by Propaganda, that they will be astounded when reality sets in. It will be an awakening for all Europeans, like the one dawning on the German population after WWII.
I don’t think it is the 70 years of peace which made the people of Europe timid and unfit for war. The people of Europe were made to believe that Fascism was defeated during WWII, and was never to be seen again. However the core of Fascism went into hiding in America, Britain, Western Europe, the Nordic Nations, and most of all hid behind the Iron Curtain, waiting for the rise of the 4th Reich (EU).
forceOfHabit wrote:
How are the NATO soldiers gonna make it on the east front?”
My comment:
European NATO Nations will not enter the East front. If anything they will block Russia from getting out of the Baltic and the Black sea, and let the Poles and Ukrainians be cannon fodder for the Russians, just like during WWII.
forceOfHabit wrote:
How far west will the new LOC be?
My comment:
I think that Russia will stop at the natural border called the Dnieper River, but continue past Odessa in the South, to land lock the western part of Ukraine. After that Poland, Hungary and Romania will smell blood, and invade western Ukraine for a piece of the carcass.
Russia wants western Ukraine to be a buffer zone, just like Belarus is a buffer zone between Russia and Poland + Lithuania.
forceOfHabit wrote:
How long is the West willing to throw money and munitions into Ukraine?
My comment:
The West is almost done sending taxpayer money to the western MIC and corrupt Western leaders.
Soon there will be no more USSR weapons left in the former Warsaw pact Nations, and Cold war weapons left in the US-NATO.
By then Germany, Poland, Romania, and Czech Republic will have to end their arms support, as they are drawing down their own defense capability, before NATO arms producers will be able to fill the void.
forceOfHabit wrote:
Ritter has said explicitly that this flow of money and munitions gives the Ukrainians “strategic depth” that they did not have initially. What will the impact be?
My comment:
I don’t agree with Ritter.
First the equipment send to Ukraine are outdated in terms of electronic guidance and interoperability, compared to the Russian military and Airforce.
YES a 155mm Grenade from a US Howitzer can make a lot of damage, but it takes lots of exposed personnel to handle, and they are slow to move.
YES the tank delivered from Poland and Germany can make a lot of damage, but without air cover the Ukrainian Army becomes sitting ducks.
YES the European Nations are able to produce modern weaponry, but has lacked the funding form European politicians, as they have all cashed in on the “Peace dividend”, since the collapse of the USSR.
I think that Ritter believes what he is saying, because he is still biased by the NATO military force in former Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya. However, the world have changed, the turning point came in Syria.
Why? Because NATO had lost the spiritual war by conducting a Global War on terror.
Thus the war in Ukraine is fought on many fronts: Spiritually, Economically, militarily, and creation of new alliances. Today, the US and NATO may well fail on the Economic and the Alliance front before its military is ground to a halt by lack of funds, caused by global isolation in trade.
It will be like the fall of the Roman Empire once again.
All of Eurasia knows that Afghanistan is historically the land where Empires goes to die.
The American people haven’t figured it out yet.
Thats my argument also. The US overstretched like many other big Empires in the past. It has debt it can never repay, it has about 1.000 military camps outside the US and its army is not as good as it was 20 years ago. Its vassals are pretty much the same, and all of them, are to dumb or to ignorant to understand it. If a couple of hundred thousand people aka Elites in the West in Think Tanks, NGOs, big corporations, Ministries, Parlaments, all kinds of organizations who get their money from the State, are all to full by their own supposed power, when in reality this exact power is nonexistent, exept of bullying their own citizens of course, then its time for the end of this Empire.
The West will loose the economic war, is loosing it in realtime, its loosing the military conflict, also in realtime and its loosing the Propaganda war also in the long run, because the whole world saw and heard the lies about Afghanistan also. Biden also said the ‘regulatory’ army in Afghanistan would be winning against the Taliban, they lost. As is Ukraine.
I think Gonzalo Lira wanting to cancel Ritter for “his lies and bs” is a bit harsh. To paraphrase something a wise person once said, “You should wake up every morning with fresh eyes and assume everything you believed yesterday is a lie.” Ritter is not the enemy… as a military analyst he’s calling it as he sees it. But I’m concerned the progressive left has adopted George Bush’s “If you’re not with us you’re against us” fascist dogma. Dissenting views in our discourse just makes us stronger by challenging our original presuppositions.
Well said, however I think the controversy comes from his article on energyintel.com entitled “Ukraine War has no end in sight”. There are strange statements like :
“…,Russia found itself in a drawn-out fight that required its military to alter its approach – pulling back from supporting attacs against Kyiv and Odessa in favour of a more singular focus on eastern Ukraine.”
There seemed to have been a consensus on that there never was an inteded ‘attack’ on Kiev, and that this mereley where a so-called ‘faint’ in movement warfare.
That being said, I think it is important to focus on the facts and not go ad-homien, as well as speculating in ulteriour motives.
Ritter also said very explicitly more than a month ago that it would be over in two weeks, in his typical self confident way. That makes such an 180 swing rather embarrassing.
Also agreed. Calling Ritter’s modified stance a “180” seems hyperbolic. As forceOfHabit explained, Ritter is applying new data, not least the recent $40 billion transfer, and analyzing how that may affect the Russian objectives, particularly the end-state of a demilitarized Ukraine. Throughout the SMO, Ritter has been skeptical of the West’s ability to prop up the Ukrainian military. He has cited factors severely limiting the efficacy of Western intervention, such as training, interoperability, manpower, and logistics. Now he seems to be reassessing those constraints in light of several new factors, such as the tsunami of funds, training on bases outside Ukraine, potential mercenary and third-party reinforcement of the Ukrainian military, and seeming ability to move fuel and equipment to lines of contact. Johnson and Martyanov have responded by downplaying the significance of these factors. They may be correct; time will tell. While we wait, bear in mind that Ritter is not saying the outcome in the east will change; it is his opinion that there, Russia and its allies will accomplish what they set out to do. His recent remarks instead concern how new inputs and events may affect Russia’s stated strategic objectives overall, leading to a lengthier war with serious implications for security arrangements in Europe and beyond.
A “180” would be for Ritter to say that Ukraine will defeat Russia militarily and retake the Donbas and Crimea, rightly recuperating what Russia and the rebellious oblasts took by “unprovoked”—another viral meme—aggression. Ritter isn’t saying anything remotely like that, which means that a “180” is a mischaracterization. Nor does revision of earlier views mean “somebody got to him” or he’s looking to monetize minor celebrity by subscribing to views palatable to powers that be. It’s likelier people ask him what he thinks and he tells them, along with the reasoning behind his judgments, and generally with the caveat that he could be wrong. Though I sometimes disagree with or call into question premises of his analyses, I appreciate the knowledge and experience going into them, the semblance of substance amid the fog.
Beside logistics being a very big obstacle to bringing in a significant force, there is another point:
Would Russia just stand by while the West assembles and starts to deploy an large force lets say in Poland?
A large army can not be sneaked into Ukraine, but would have to be build up outside the country. I belief Russia would attack such a force on NATO territory. This would result in a direct conflict with NATO. The US might wish for new new European war, but most of the European NATO states wont follow. I belief NATO would brake up, if it would come to sending troops into Ukraine.
NATO seems ill prepared militarily and the US does not have the industrial capacity and economic stability to support a large scale conventional war. I belief conventionally NATO is a paper tiger that will want to keep up it’s remaining big bad king of the jungle reputation. So they probably would want to keep the conflict boiling as long as possible and funnel a growing stream of billions into their Military-Industrial-Complex.
Thanks @ the saker team and especially amarynth for this ratrher unusual siterep which is exactly about a topic that should be debated now and preferably separated from any emotional or personal stuff! Much appreciated.
I came to know about Ritter’s U-turn only by others (for instance Martyanov) refering to it. Then I watched what Ritter talked about with Judge Napolitano who asked him point blank about his 180-move. And what Ritter says DOES make some sense. I am not surprised but a tad worried about the way many people angrily ump at Ritter for telling sth uncomfortable.
Here is my take:
1) Imho Ritter raises some valid points, whether we like it or not. He may not know everything about Russian troops and strategies and certainly not as good as, say, Martyanov does. But he knows “his” US people and their determination and tool-boxes.
2) Yes, trained soldiers don’t grow on trees and merely sending weapons to 404 won’t make much of a difference. But who says only weapons will be sent?
3) 1st move: Poland and Ukraine suddenly become best buddies (never mind Poland’s economy thrived by exploiting 100,000s of Ukrainian cheap laborers with no right flying under any EU regulations). THat is happening as we speak with the new bill essentially handing over Ukraine’s political and legal system to Poland, likely much of its security forces, too. Next thing you know, Polish troops enter Western Ukraine on invitation and free well-trained Uki troops in the Western part to be thrown at the eastern front.
4)What’s Russia to do? Attack the Poles even though they didn’t participate in any hostilities? Or wait for the latter? But what if they don’t but continuously move eastwards? So a pre-emptive strike on them right at the beginning to draw another red line?
5) 3rd move: intrdoduce Polish and Romanian NATO soldiers to the battlefield as “ukrainians” and let them handle all the fancy modern Nato equipment. Not possible? Please! Give them Uki citizenship and a high enough salary and here we go!
6) This leads me to Ritter’s major point: His argument that Nato’s moves create enormous depth in the rear and he is 100% right on that, imho. NATO troops will enter whatever tiny part of Ukraine and will make a stand there daring Russia to attack. Will Moscow? Unlikely! But if Russia doesn’t do it then that part of Ukraine under NATO control will become the springboeard for eternal attacks on the rest of what was formerly Ukraine. Nato couldn’t care less about Ukraine but now that they send ever more of Nato weapons this war becomes a do or die for them, too. It’s one thing to not defend Ukraine against Russia. It’s quite another to try hard and yet fail at it!
Bottom line: Don’t dismiss Ritter too quickly. Things are hard enough on the battle field right now for Russia and Nato does have the means to make them harder and slow Russia down further. Don’t underestimate the enemy and especially don’t throw stones at someone sympathetic to your cause just because he happens to raise some valid concerns.
Sorry I forgot to include the most important point:
Ritter didn’t change his view on Russia’s MILITARY victory – a point that most comentators here seem to have missed!
Ritter did change his view on Russia achieving her POLITICAL war objectives and he makes valid points in this regard (e.g. de-militarization,de-nazification).
I haven’t watched the videos linked here but he made that excessively clear when talking to judge Napolitano when pressed about his U-turn by the latter.
Ritter knows very well the military and political impact of ‘exhaustion’ on the weaker side, but strangely reverts to wishful forecasting of exhaustion of the stronger side. No energy no party. That’s all folks!
A US light Infrantry Brigade needs 1,400 short tons supplies daily. Mech and Tank BCTs need even more.
No; the idea is in-situ training – that is, all the Ukrainians living in Western Ukraine will be offered a deal they cannot refuse – “Take these arms, go fight the Russkies and face bullets, or face bullets here and now”; a sensible man would take the weapons, march on to the front, and surrender quickly.
Bill 7351 introduced in the Rada by zelensky’s party attempts to plug that loophole: It wants to allow Ukrainian field commanders to kill Ukrainian soldiers to stop desertions and mass surrenders!
It’s utter nonsense and an own goal if there ever was one, politically!
1) it shows extreme desperation – or how else do you explain that bill to the average Ukrainian citizen?
2) A field commander doing this will sign his death warrant. Expect reports of infighting among ukrainian treoops in short order
“As Johnson says – it is a substantive matter. So commentators, please be reasonable and kind, and don’t tell us who you like most. At least present knowledge of the substance of this matter.”
I have read at most three articles by Ritter. He is not a good analyst, not that I saw this kind of error. On the other hand, “good analyst” is hard to find. The good analyst never flounders (never ever). He might make a mistake, which is different.
Good Sitrep.
I ask people to stay with substance, and you directly go into personal issues.
Please do not do it again.
I think the only arguably “personal” thing there is the quote.
I chose the quote because a perpetual admonition to readers is kind of condescending, no? I don’t know who Johnson is, I hope not a doctor.
Then go and update yourself as to the substance before you comment again.
Yeah, I read “Johnson” only in the article and had not read his link so I forgot. He is not well-known nationally. He says he is a friend of Ritter, and “friends” only go so far with friends in a critique, normally. Like another commenter indicates below, Ritter is open to “influence” (as almost everybody must be). There was a former air defense commander in Russia who gave a negative opinion regarding the performance of the Russian army on TV and two days later made a complete turnabout on TV. People can discuss his new interpretation or the odd change. The Western media that discussed it just focused on the influence/pressure. The same may be applied to Ritter for the same reason. (Isn’t it all about Ritter himself, really?)
All that Johnson says there is obvious. Someone could give even 300 billion to any non-superpower and it won’t be ready to fight Russia on that month nor on the next (won’t be ready in years?). Surely Ritter knew on February 25/26, like many here, that a lot of money was going to be poured into Ukraine. How could he have not factored that in?
Johnson:
“Scott also asserts that intelligence sharing gives the Ukrainians an edge.”
“Scott Ritter sees the training of Ukrainian troops in Poland and Germany as a critical variable that could really hurt the Russians.”
Fine, but how could he not have factored those in initially?
Ritter: “That’s nearly $10 billion more than Russia spends on the totality of its military in one year. That changes the game.”
Can you sense “influence” or “pressure” behind such naive-like words? His friend Johnson gets into a serious discussion of it. That’s fine, but the ball is not really there. In fact, I think Ritter has lost his credibility because such a turnabout – this very turnabout – happens if you are a poor analyst, or if you know better but decided that you don’t want to be in a position that exposes the others as plain fools later. For later one will hear the classic, “I mean, who would have thought…!”
But Scott Ritter’s personal issues do leave him open to “influence” from others who have the goods on him.
It does yes. But speculation here is just idle gossip. Let’s address the arguments.
I read Scott Ritter’s article for Sputnik (website unavailable in the EU) via the Unz Review. To be honest I did not find his commentary to be that controversial. His main point seemed to be that the $53 billion in spending authorized by the US since January which is “nearly $10 billion more than Russia spends on the totality of its military in one year” means Russia is “now going up against a Ukrainian military that is supported by a weapons package that by itself nearly matches the defence budget for Russia in all of one year” and this “changes the game.”
He emphasized that “that doesn’t mean that Ukraine wins the game.” However, he does seem to believe that Russia should consider devoting more resources to the Special Military Operation. I am sure that planners in Moscow are considering the same issue.
Since, it is blindingly obvious that Ukraine cannot retrain its existing forces (to the extent it has any) to use the new NATO weapons instantly, apart from the normal corruption, grift and covering up of nefarious deeds committed in the past in Ukraine through its complete destruction, what is Washington’s plan?
The obvious plan would be to form some sort of new Condor Legion (i.e., based on the concept used by fascist Germany and Italy to provide support to Franco in the Spanish Civil War) using “retired” NATO troops who are already trained on NATO weaponry. I suggest calling it the Raven Regiment or the Corp of Crows since both birds, like Condors, are carrion feeders.
It is a dumb plan, but it beats shipping fighters from Idlib in Syria, which would make it clear to everybody who did not already know that Isis was a US proxy force. The Syria plan is still active however and there have been reports in the media that 50 Syrian experts in barrel bombs have been sent to Ukraine. What sane person would believe that Russia would need barrel bombs? But a false flag chemical/bio attack is clearly still a possibility.
Russia has been playing a very adroit game of chess against NATO’s poker players. So far most of the damage done to NATO countries has been done by the junta (in the Spanish sense of word) in Washington.
It is Washington that has damaged the dollar’s hegemony by breaking the first rule of banking – being caught stealing your customer’s money. Inevitable result – collapse of financial markets (e.g, the Dow is down over 15% and NASDAQ is down almost 20% since January 1) and inflation.
It is Washington that is in the process of adding to inflation and destroying US and European industry through its sanctions policy. As V. V. Putin has pointed out, a country’s industry cannot compete if it is paying more than anyone else for raw materials.
It is Washington that has damaged the effectiveness of the mighty Wurlitzer of Western propaganda and shown itself to be the Empire of Lies. It broke the first rule almost immediately – never admit that you are engaging in propaganda, as well as the second rule – focus on your real audience. In banning RT and Sputnik in Western Europe and then boasting that it was winning the propaganda war the US lost it. In forcing Ukrainians to watch a single television channel it forgot who the key audience was – Ukrainians who can access Russian television and Russian telegram channels. For anyone who doubts that this is the case even Time magazine is now admitting that Russia may be winning the information war (https://time.com/6179221/putin-information-war-column/).
It is Washington that has ruled out a diplomatic solution and damaged the institutions of international diplomacy by subverting international organizations such as the OPCW and the OSCE, closing consulates, expelling diplomats, ignoring hundreds of years of precedents as to the immunity of diplomats and above all by instructing its proxy, Ukraine, not to follow the Minsk agreements that it had signed up to.
I profoundly hope that V. V. Putin’s and Xi Jinping’s plans are more than just the demilitarization and denazification of the Ukraine and extend to freeing Western Europe from 75 years of American military occupation and encouraging “regime change” in Washington so that power is finally handed back to the American people, but I will settle for the end of that fount of corruption, NATO, which according to Roland Dumas was everyone’s expectation on the end of the Cold War (https://www.les-crises.fr/comment-l-occident-a-promis-a-l-urss-que-l-otan-ne-s-etendrait-pas-a-l-est-par-roland-dumas-ex-ministre-1990-promesse/).
Comparisons of Russian and USA military spending based soley on quantum ($ amount) ignore completely the well established fact that the us military industrial congressional complex is completely riddled with corruption and inefficiencies. That corruption and those inefficiencies are not present in the Russian system.
What counts, quite literally is the amount of bang you get for your buck. Ritter’s analysis fails to take this into account, he is not alone in this, it has been present in much western analysis of the subject since Putin bagan refoming the Russian military. US weapomns spending is often more about generating kickbacks to Congressmen and profits for arms manufacturers than it is about making weapons that are cost effictive and reliable in combat. Add in the massive disconnects between the US diplomatic, intelligence and military departments which are obvious to anyone who cares to look and it is not remotely surprising that Russia has managed to do more with less by operating in a cohesive and cost efficient manner.
As for Ritters sudden 180 turn in his projection of the course of events, the stewards of the western narrative cannot afford to have anyone remotely credible on “their” side making argument that contradicts their brittel and dishonest fairy tale. To paraphrase an old story about a King and some dodgy scoundrels pretending to be tailors, the Kings bollocks are on public display and he does not know it, and the tailors cannot afford to have their spell broken just yet, becasue they have not been paid for the garment they are weaving. I expect Ritter got a call, “pull your head in son, or something bad will happen to someone you love”.
All pretty straightforward really, but what would a farm boy at the other end of the world know?
Use a VPN that pretends you’re based outside of zone A to access Sputnik. Proton has a Japanese server in its free offer that does the job quite good.
I can understand that people hope that someone else frees them from their overlord but why in Gods name would the Russians do that again??? It’s time Europeans look up from their phones, after downloading plans to build a guillotine, and take care of bussiness themselves.
Russia East of the Urals is in Europe and so by definition most Russians are Europeans. We share a common culture and common understanding of the world.
In France we tried an independent approach, we even arranged to build two Mistral class ships for the Russian Navy to pay for our imports.This was not appreciated in Washington. The French bank BNP Paribas was forced to pay a $8.9 billion fine to the US authorities in 2014 for actions that were perfectly legal in France, the Mistral sale was cancelled in 2014. I am sure that assurances can be received from Washington that the cancellation of the Mistral sale and the BNP Paribas fine are unconnected.
Much of the French establishment does not share Washington’s view of the World. Two of Jacques Baud’s articles were originally published in French by the French think tank, the CENTRE FRANÇAIS DE RECHERCHE SUR LE RENSEIGNEMENT (“CF2R”). The CF2R has set out its view in an editorial https://cf2r.org/tribune/communique-du-20-avril-2022/# (be warned the machine translation into English is very bad in some places). It includes this passage:
“We believe that the interests of our country are to have an independent analysis to conduct a sovereign foreign policy and not that dictated by NATO. This is all the more necessary since sooner or later we will be led to re-establish relations with Russia in order to rebuild a European security system to ensure the stability and protection of the populations of our continent.”
No matter how efficient Russia is at building weapons, $53 billion in spending still changes the game a little, even if “that doesn’t mean that Ukraine wins the game”. Personally I believe that if Scott Ritter received a call it was either “Moscow here, tone it down a little, we are playing the long game” or “Scott your old Marine buddies here, we are all signing up for the Corp of Crows, but keep it hush hush”. I do note the article I read was originally published on Sputnik which is still marked under its old name Voice of Russia in my browser.
“His main point seemed to be that the $53 billion in spending authorized by the US since January which is “nearly $10 billion more than Russia spends on the totality of its military in one year” means Russia is “now going up against a Ukrainian military that is supported by a weapons package that by itself nearly matches the defence budget for Russia in all of one year”
This is moot, as has been pointed out many times. The money allocated will not be 100% spent on weapons. There will be graft, pork, payoffs, logistic expenses, etc. And it does not take in to account PPP.
I finally understand. A lot of people are misreading Scott Ritter’s “changes the game” (i.e. the tempo or the style of play) as ‘game changer’ and are then further misinterpreting ‘game changer’ to mean the moment Washington scored that decisive whatever and went on to win. It doesn’t.
As to possible regime change in Washington, personally I hope it is as peaceful as possible, happens via the ballot box in free and fair elections and occurs prior to and forestalls the next Great Depression.
I agree fully…especially with the part about encouraging ”regime change in Washington!”
No nation does anything to the oligarchy in Washington whilte it traips all over the world doing all manner of wickedness to nations, Its time those guys found themselves on the defensive from the gamut destabilizing activities, especially coups and assassinations!
Le docteur Ralph,
“ It is Washington that has damaged the dollar’s hegemony by breaking the first rule of banking “
Always Washington, I understand there misguided conduct in the initial phase but they are doubling down destroying the complete West economically and then we can he happy that the Russians are answering in a soft way.
So I start to suspect the Western elites (anglo Saxons) are destroying not only European industry on purpose, which was a goal, but also US economy on purpose. What I do not understand is what they will gain except sooner or later revolt. The only thing I can see is civil war al over Europe and USA where in Europe indigenous people will fight new immigrants and USA where white will fight Color. So do they want to reduce the population this way? It will work because it will also affect the developing nations and kill many more.
I do not see any other rationale to act like this. Even ideologically focused beings are sooner or later hit by reality. Some European leadership is waking up and sees that Viktor from Hungary was right. My question is what will the WEF educated elite, that by coincidence rules over many nations in Europe and Canada, do? Turn around or double down again dooming millions if not billions?
My knowledge is that Ritter has great integrity. He used to be often linked and variously referred to on here, with genuine respect for his work, independently of personal feelings, that simply have no place in discerning minds.
Anyone who is experienced and knowledgeable in analysis will know that mistakes can be made, that certain conditions may compromise aspects of their reporting.
Feudal times are here.
So why are you commenting on the person, instead of what we asked, to stay with the substance?
Amarynth, that’s because analysis is too hard for most people. There are too many facts to evaluate and most people realize they don’t understand war, both people with combat experience and the more-fortunate who never saw combat. But hey, a horse race or a personality contest ? Why sure, that’s easy. Even I am tempted (I deleted my defense of SR), but when writing, as a matter of principle and “least effort”, I usually remember to stick to the high-value topics, and delete lesser points. But one exception goes beyond “personality contests”, and that’s when you seriously believe a person has been “turned”. It’s the most serious accusation possible and as I’ve written before, it is sometimes a topic for the adults in the room. It’s a dangerous accusation, to be handled with great care. History has examples of organizations that were damaged, even destroyed, by such accusations, sometimes accidentally but more often as deliberate sabotage. So it takes evidence that is “beyond a shadow of a doubt” for such a claim. However, mere suspicions may be worth discussing – but only as unproven suspicions that should be looked at dispassionately, in clear daylight.
It would improve the already very good comments section if people would try to stick to topics they personally think are truly important which many people may not already know.
amarynth, from a lot of the comments people have similar view’s on all this, but there is more to it. The substance to stay with is one thing, the objective, living person another. They are inseparable however.
Kindly stay to the debate parameters that I set here. They are:
“For comments, I remind you, that this is not a personality contest. As Johnson says – it is a substantive matter. So commentators, please be reasonable and kind, and don’t tell us who you like most. At least present knowledge of the substance of this matter. From the commentariat, let’s keep this one closely focused on the topic.”
I’ll say it a different way. We will countenance no discussion on previous sexual escapades with minors as the focus here is on the substance.
Kindly refrain from responding here.
“The substance”
The substance is a function of facility including methods not restricted to validation.
“Anyone who is experienced and knowledgeable in analysis will know that mistakes can be made, that certain conditions may compromise aspects of their reporting.”
Not restricted to mistakes but also includes methods of interpretation, hence:
“So why are you commenting on the person, instead of what we asked, to stay with the substance?”
when you are commenting on facility including methods, and partly why notices of intent delivered to “The United States of America” and “NATO” by the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation were interpreted as ultimata, and partly why in 1991 some visited Children’s World to stock up on mirrors.
There won’t be a New Model Army in Ukraine as there is no Cromwell who is a slave of the most high to lead it.
BrotherBlueIconoclast
Perhaps Prester John can once again lead a mythical army.
He wasn’t a slave he was a servant who’s battle cry was “the lord of hosts”
Mr. Ritter’s comments surprised and even shocked many of his supporters. One was to wonder to his motives… I, for one, do not believe, he believed what he wrote based on his previous analysis. I can only guess, they somehow convinced him to take this road… anyone following anything but the legacy media knew full well, after re-examining his comments, that he is terribly mistaken.
The corruption and moral depravity in this affair has been exposed… death by a thousand cuts…
OK, so he is corrupted now, and has shocked many. Why not leave it at that then and move on ? I smell a thousand rats. Regression my friends….
Because it is interesting. And it also begs the question, will my opinion change. Was I wrong, are I am wrong now?
Does it matter what I or anyone else who is not directly involved in the war thinks? Probably not. But questioning is emotional discomfort. People try to avoid that. And they also hate things that are unresolved. That is why we are so desperately want some big news. Would be differently, if you would work one something regarding the war, see the daily progress or at least have not so much time to think. Waiting is not easy.
Know yourself to avoid mistakes. In that way discussing Ritter could help.
I was surprised by Scott by the total 180 in confidence and the very emotional way that he presented and answered questions on his new position. His new doctrine of strategic depth by Ukraine by bases in Poland or whatever was hardly a surprise as it was already being done incrementally in many ways
since the start of the SMO. I watched and read his body language and thought he had been got at. His normal confident style was not there and he seemed rattled by this new discovery of his that was easily seen as a possibility all along. He seemed not himself. And I really admired himself.
Honestly, Ritter didn’t do a 180 imho, and I wonder if many people accusuing him of that really listend to him or read what he said.
He stil STANDS by his forecast that Russia will win militarily.
He has CHANGED his view that this will end the war/SMO!
He thinks that Russia will not be able to win the war in terms of reaching all of its major objectives, apart from the military win.
And he has a strong case here! Nato won’t sign any peace tretay and neither will whatever pupper president “rules” Ukraine. Russia will somewhat control huge parts of Ukraine to a smaller and lesser extent but will have to defend them continuously against direct military assaults as well as sabotage and terrorist acts. Think about today’s Syria with Idlib and the US-held territory as equivalent to the nato-controlled parts of Ukraine. And in this part a Ukrainian force armed to the teeth and whatever Nazis managed to retreat there will be present for a long time!
Maybe Mr. Ritter feel himself he goes a “bridge so far”, and he’s risking much more than he imagined.
Probably he is being very pressed by “ocult forces” to mix his almost-to-true analisys whit propaganda….
Who knows?
But for me, a so brutal drift has only this explanation.
Shall we?
Exactly my thought. Scott Ritter’s about-face remains puzzling. Instead of an intellectual explanation (“why would an otherwise knowledgeable, accurate and thoughtful analyst so suddenly change his mind?”), there might be a more mundane one. Threats concerning his family is what comes to mind.
Instead of an intellectual explanation, there might be a more mundane one.’ Yes, or a sordid one, but an intelligent caring attitude, well, you’ll be lucky.
The Two Of Us
https://youtu.be/aZdZFxU2no8
nothing in the real world can execute a 180 turn.only in a made up world can this occur.SR began by being insightful and logical very analytical.suddenly he is speculating on rumors and suppostions.i smell a deep state troll.
My thoughts exactly, too many people take everything at face values.
That 180 turn analysis is exactly what the US governement wants, for Russia to commit more troops in Ukraine to justify an intensification of the conflict. Ritter got handed a script.
Russia’s position is the exact contrary, it has been downplaying its ambitions and its military capability to not escalate the conflict.
Of course that’s an absolutely idiotic move from the US side, because now if Russia doesn’t follow up they look even less like a threat to Europe. Once again the US governement shows its strategical incompetence.
Don’t forget that this is Russia, DPR, LPR, Chechnya and other allies against the World Economic Forum (WEF) leaders. Almost all the European and western leaders are WEF stooges. Orban of Hungary is not. These are the same people who locked down their countries and vaxxed their people basically by force. Australians just threw vaxxer PM Scott Morrison out of office, I am not sure if his replacement is any better. Those vaxxes destroy people’s health.
They are still pushing the vaxxes. As far as Russia versus supposed new and nato trained in Europe Ukie’s – if the Russians keep making Kailbrs and own the skies, they win. The Ukraine has no oil. Zelensky’s family are now living in an $8 million mansion in Israel. He owns more expensive mansions in Italy and $34 million Miami Beach. He is protected by British SAS. He is a stooge for the WEF just like Julain Catsro Trudeau, Biden, Arden(NZ), Johnson, almost all of European leaders, NZ, Baltics, etc. They are vax nazis.
The Ukrainian people are lied to, robbed, murdered by their own leaders. Who would want to fight for these criminals? The pool of fighting men in the Ukraine keeps decreasing. Many fled the country at the start of the war. NATO can keep sending wonder weapons which turn out to be garbage.
Look at the Russian Su25 fighter bomber. 1970s technology, nothing special but it is reliable and works day and night. As long as Russia owns the skies with jets, drones and missiles then backs it up with artillery and more Kalibr cruise missles, Ukraine has no chance. The Ukrainian military should lay down their arms then go after their corrupt leaders.
“Who would want to fight for these criminals?”
I keep wondering that about American soldiers.
It is easy to close your eyes to the evil as long as your tour is more or less “War safari” where you bag some shepherds now and then. There may be some hard situations but the end result isn´t in doubt. When you go against an equal opponent and the losses come there may be(very likely imo) some severe moral problems, the US Navy already has a seriously degraded performance and morale(see BonHomme Richard and similar escalating incidents).
The politicization of Western armies and the lion part of training seems to be geared towards “insurgencies”, “peacekeeping” and “anti-terror/piracy” Ops(their own population will be a target soon if you look at what the trends and even several simulations say, like the “Lock-step simulation” by the Rockefeller Foundation).
as a Westerner I can only say that I see evil moving openly in the West while Russia ostensibly cares about its population and the officers I know see it as well but are stuck because of pure economics and people that get into the “I have to suck it up for money”-mindset isn´t that keen to give 100% for “their” Government.
“Australians just threw vaxxer PM Scott Morrison out of office, I am not sure if his replacement is any better.”
The new puppet will be worse. MorriSCUM left the WEF edicts to the states to enforce as many Tories were against the mandates.
The new puppet will do it himself. He ordered all journalists on his campaign tour to be triple stabbed and wear muppet masks at all times. He the became ill, to ADE of course.
The election was corrupt as the millions that voted for independents didn’t have their votes appear; backward preferential system makes results cloudy and easy to manipulate.
Labour got in with a third of the primary vote. They are illegitimate.
And they call it democracy!
Thanks, Amarynth.
Gonzalo explained it so very well. But I would still like to know more of the details of his recent ‘hiatus’ and his current status in Kharkov.
All we really know is what he said. But again, that is personal.
In that video he asks the questions of the mass army and why the idea of that is preposterous. That is focused to the substance. I think he explained it very well and his two examples are spot on!
How does that change anything…..he wasn’t Kadaffied or Hussiened so therefore the message is tainted…..he makes noting up and basis his opinion, on things out in the public domain, we can access what he accesses… please explain logically why you need to know where, why and how.
I’ll give you a clue, Lira works in the business, it’s a closed company, you need connections to get in. They give you a card. Ms ‘Elinsky’s is the same business, he has a card too. So you don’t kill fellow business partners, even if you have a difference of opinion……hmm, sometimes, rarely though, the difference becomes so great you need to bomb them back to their senses.
Cheers M
I did not say this message is tainted. His explanation is very clear. Russia does not have a logistic problem in this conflict, but NATO does. The contrast is glaringly obvious. And if sanity and civility can be quickly restored, it will make Russia’s countercoup a stunning historical success.
It is just this: I would like to know if he is planning to gently steer the narrative at some point in time. If he simply starts lying, his audience will walk away. They, we, are not stupid. And if he is planning to run for mayor of Kiev, then he should probably learn some Russian.
Remember to keep pushing the message of Russian triumphalism. It reeks of propaganda as does the NATO blather. 3 months into the invasion, and Ukraine is still able to bomb the civilians in the separatist republics–that was the entire justification for the invasion, and after 3 months of “winning” they still are unable to achieve the initial objectives of the invasion. 3 months into the “Special Military Operations” and the Ukrainians still field a cohesive fighting force which is inflicting pain on Russia every day. Strategically the SMO has clearly failed in its objectives of removing NATO forces from the borders of Russia. I have been saying to the Ukraine supporters here in the US that every day the war goes on will result in a worse outcome for Ukraine and Ukrainians. It is now apparent that every day this war goes on will result in a worse outcome for Russia and the US. The only winner will be China. Denialism runs together with false triumphalism. When the fires start this summer in Siberia, and the shortages of basic goods start impacting everyones daily lives, the Russians will do what they do best–throw their worthless rulers on the scrap heap and look for new ones.
The problem for all war supporters, they believe their own propaganda. I originally thought NATO wanted to drag Russia into a new Afgan debacle. It is now clear that China plays the long hand, both of its strategic rivals have now been drawn into what is shaping up as a quagmire of death. We will be singing the praises of the CCP before this is all over.
Thank you wobblie. This is one of the more clear-sighted and reasonable comments I have read on the saker for quite some time.
The only thing I would add is perhaps China will be reassessing its desire to retake Taiwan and weighing it up against the total cost and even feasibility of taking and *holding* Taiwan.
Ukrainians are *not* still able to ‘bomb civilians in the separatist republics’ – they are shelling them from the same positions that they were entrenched in at the beginning of the SMO. And you can see on a daily basis that the Russian armed forces, together with Lugansk and Donetsk forces, are getting closer and closer to surrounding them in cauldrons that will then be split up into smaller ones in the usual fashion. In addition, after a mere 90 days, Russia has taken territory the size of England and Wales, and is plainly intending to stay. Look at the control, of the dam now feeding water into Crimea, the willingness to sell Ukraine electricity from the Zaporozhiye nuclear power plant, and the use of Rubles in Kherson Oblast’.
The Ukrainians do *not* have a cohesive fighting force, and are now engaged in desperate attempts to recruit new soldiers. That is why a mountain unit based near Moldova was hit by Russian forces in the east of Ukraine. That is why Ukrainian officers are deserting. The arms being supplied by NATO countries are mostly being destroyed soon after they arrive. The confirmatory videos are readily accessible.
It was not an objective of the SMO to remove NATO forces from Russia’s borders. The objectives were to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine, and that is self-evidently being accomplished at a pace that minimizes civilian damage. That is why only about 190,000 Russian personnel are involved while 500,000 are in Russia or Belarus, in case NATO intervenes directly.
In Ukraine, Russia has air superiority, has destroyed AFU command and control capabilities, continues to interdict NATO efforts at resupply, and has limited losses of personnel through the use of long-range weapons, as well as massed artillery and MLRS forces. It does not have logistical difficulties, it being routine to handle logistics on a continental scale. It captured over one-third of the total AFU garrison in Mariupol after they came out of hiding in bunkers/tunnels below the Azovstal steel plant. They had already captured quite a few of the other two-thirds of the Mariupol garrison before that.
The facts on the ground have discredited the ‘raging torrent of lies’ emanating from the Zelenskiy regime and the compliant Western media.
I met Scott Ritter in July 2005 when I invited him to give a talk on Iran (not Iraq) in the Department of Peace Studies at the University of Bradford in the UK. He talked a lot of sense then, and I cannot understand his 180 degree turn recently. I hope that he engages in dialogue with those who disagree with him.
Thank you for taking your valuable time to respond to the post above. On the off chance that this wobblie person isn’t a Ukrainian shill, I will merely suggest that they are grossly mistaken. The only thing they seem to have correctly observed is the names of the principle combatants.
I would also add, as an American, I would far rather be ruled by the virtuous pagans of the People’s Republic of China, than spend another minute under the boot of that satanic malignancy, squatting on the Potomac River(Washington DC).
Have no doubt, they are a shill. They repost the exact talking points that the US medias fed us in the recent days. Russia is weak and incompetent, China is the new enemy. Since Azovstal surrendered their activity dramatically increased.
Yo creo que cuanto más dure la guerra es mejor para Rusia , porque por un lado está destruyendo la unidad de la Unión Europea que ya se está resquebrajando y su economía va camino del desastre , por otro lado Rusia está ganando gran cantidad de rublos que mantienen su economía ,Además interviene solamente una cantidad muy corta de tropas , si quisiera avanzar con mayor rapidez tiene la opción de incluir más tropas , por lo tanto hay que tener en cuenta muchas variables de llevar a cabo los objetivos del plan establecido , creo que hay un dicho que los rusos no van ni al aseo sin un plan .A mi entender todavía quedan varios meses para destruir completamente a los nazis y sus amigotes
machine translation
I believe that the longer the war lasts the better for Russia , because on the one hand it is destroying the unity of the European Union which is already cracking and its economy is heading for disaster , on the other hand Russia is gaining large amount of rubles that maintain its economy ,In addition it intervenes only a very short amount of troops , if it wanted to move faster it has the option to include more troops , therefore you have to take into account many variables to carry out the objectives of the established plan , I think there is a saying that the Russians do not even go to the toilet without a plan . In my opinion there are still several months left to completely destroy the Nazis and their cronies.
Nations need money to fight wars and to feed clothe and keep in relative comfort their populations.
Its assumed that countries manufature goods and deploy services thus earn money and that money is enough to buy things they do not have
But money is only a tool to buy real stuff and services.
However if a country has a educated and talented population, has more resources than it needs for its population and has most of the resources needed for its population to live well plus enough resources to conduct war without needing to get them form elsewhere or deplete its resources to any notable extent then I dont see why it would face trouble?
You really think that Russia can make great missiles, send people in space regularly, make world beating fighter jets of all kinds but it is some how helpless to make soaps, napkins spoons, powders and cars ?
Have you researched the Russian vehicle industry? Obviously not.
Well, if you look at the level of achievemnet of the CCP in raising the standard of living the last 30 years … the songs of praise might even be genuine ;)
I think you don’t understand the situation. The LNR and DNR form the eastern half of the forming cauldron. One reason the UAF hasn’t been ordered to evacuate and avoid getting boiled in a cauldron, is that Kiev wants the shelling of Russian-speaking civilians to continue, both for the criminal destruction of Russian-ethnic people and for the exact propaganda which you fell for, that somehow Russia isn’t waging this SMO very well. A cauldron often needs bait for the victim army and sometimes the civilians are the bait, as in Stalingrad and Debaltsevo. The Ukies are well dug in, and it takes time and a lot of artillery to destroy them. The deaths of civilians from UAF shelling must be weighed against needless deaths of allied soldiers moving too quickly. The other big reason why Russia is not in a hurry, is because the Empire is engaged in slow motion suicide. The EU has enough rope and hubris to hang themselves, but they need more time. Look at Russia’s goals, stated at the start of the SMO. The end of NATO in Eastern Europe is a very “big ticket” item, so the West will not concede until their pain becomes unbearable. Russia knows that, and the last 89 days shows the Russian plan is brilliant, and going faster would be counter-productive
I’m too old to be biased. For me the propaganda is normal, even the most dishonest one. But the problem with your propaganda, of instilling doubts, is that it is too thin and vague. I wonder why others answer to your nonsense.
Here Scott Ritter explains that he doesn’t think that Russia is losing, but the game is changing to a bigger conflict.
Because the support from Nato is growing so the situation is changing between Nato and Russias western border. The possibility for a bigger war is coming closer, because Nato countries are beiginnig to support Ukraine much more.
And that is the huge difference. Yes, we are in a great possibility of bigger conflict – I don’t think anyone will argue that. But I do not think it is because NATO in any way represents a real power. My dear heavens, they want the Poles to fight now, and the Poles seemingly (I have not had formal confirmation) want to fight? How insane is that? They are either willingly walking into a meat grinder, or they are just pretending.
Much of what we see now, is pretense.
One assumption everyone makes is the unity and resolve within NATO and EU is static as time and situation changes. This is not true. every country has its unique situation.
How they change their tune with a new dynamic created by Russia in various fields will also effect the ultimate outcome.
Why not allowing Scot Ritter to have a different opinion on some subject?
Why not debate the issues. Issues that look .. well, kinda wonky.
mario2, it’s not that Ritter has a different opinion.
It’s that his opinion swung 180 overnight, seemingly based on very little situational change. Big stuff “sneaking” into Ukraine is just more big stuff to target & blow up. Not some game changer.
Personally, I expect the change was a personal issue, so no further comment.
Re: million man army. The only country I know of with a million man army is China. And they’re kind of on Russia’s side.
No idea how US/Nato plan to come up with this army.
Here in the US, first the mitary threw out the conservative ..er, the “racist white nationalists”. Then they forced the toxic jabs, driving the sane, straight ones to leave & sickening when not killing the rest.
Doubt its much different elsewhere. Nato is cracking apart, not sticking together. A bunch of different countries speaking different languages, all looking for ways to look like they’re helping Ukraine without actually wrecking themselves.
The US is running out of certain things (javelins? Stingers?) per congressman on committee & Bloomberg News.
All the worth less dollars won’t change fact that our manufacturing, including defense, was “off shored” so replacement won’t be easy (or possible) with a cracking apart supply chain.
Kancelar, there is no need for the new army to move east. The Russians will be coming to the west–isn’t that what the triumphalist propaganda above is stating.
The best outcome for the Russians in Ukraine is to have a flush border with NATO. Any war between NATO and Russia has massive ramifications. Ukraine is essentially a blank cheque for chaos. As Russia approaches the western districts it should invite Poland and competitors to snack o what’s left. That leaves Russia without funded chaos on their border, and immobilizes the weapons stockpile build up in local territories.
I believe it’s most rational for Russia to find a way to end Ukraine as an independent country without having to risk a compression of forces in the western Ukraine region where ‘mistakes can happen’. This is also in NATO’s best interests and Poland and friends get a land bonus.
Everyone wins, including Ukraine’s people, in that they are no longer used as cannon fodder.
There is a lot of territory to cover between now and my above scenario however, and every day people will make claims concerning Russia not winning enough. What I see is Russia trying to not wreck the territory it captures simply because it wants to own it, intact. The US doesn’t do this when it invades as it doesn’t intend on sticking around.
Ritter turned on a dime when everyone else was in a momentum based decision process, continuously judging as the values of men / materials / location / management changed.
What was the catalyst for his change? was that factors so enormous when weighed against all other data properly?
the proffered reasons were not convincing to the commenters or there would be no criticism absent a pre- conceived political position of all concerned
My question 1 is the following,
Whether US military spending figures are reliable. It is true that your budget is 800,000 But how much of that money is intended for real war … without commissions and corruption?
My question 2 is: Is it true that the US military is too big to move because it can’t support its weight?
Total annual income in the United States is about 18 trillion. that is, $18,000,000,000,000. Surely your estimate of our military spending is missing some zeroes. (it is thousand, million, billion, trillion) That is why the US is dangerous. Uncle Sam has deep financial pockets.
I appreciate your response and excuse me for having eaten a few zeros.
According to you, the strength of the dollar is supported by the size of the armed forces and global military projection?
Oscar, I recently read that a significant chunk of US military budget goes to supporting overseas bases, medical care, veterans, etc. Not actually for military operations.
And all the $$ in the world mean zip if their wasted on sex change operations, blow, parties, etc.
And Biden just recommitted us to invading & bombing Somalia.
“how much of that money is intended for real war”
It is in close range of any other US “aid” that we know of: 3%
“In my view, sharing intelligence with Ukraine is an effort in futility.”
Evaluation is a function of purpose as is utility.
As you correctly outline in the body of your contribution, utlity is a function of facility.
“there is an assumption that the recipients of that intelligence will be able to do something to hurt the Russians.”
The reliance upon assumptions by some facilitate opportunities for those not so reliant.
The assumptions made by some but not all, include but are not limited to :
“sharing intelligence with Ukraine is an effort in futility.”
……… and that cui bono is a valid framing/question in evaluation, thereby obfuscating a more relevant question of how to attain utility from this context in furtherance of our purpose?
Hence there are lateral matrices of vectors of opportunities, including but not limited to purpose and facility, which render facilitating the sharing of intelligence with “Ukraine” to be of utility, without necessarily resorting to “effort” outwith interpretation and facilitation of opportunities derived therefrom, since all datastreams have utility for those with facility.
Wow, you have attracted GPT3 bloviabots! Unbelievable! Congratulations!
Somehow I feel this won’t be the last entry from V.S.
“Unbelievable!”
Thank you for your co-operation in illustrating one of the reasons for sharing datastreams with others.
However since attribution is never sought, congratulations are not appropriate.
“Hence there are lateral matrices of vectors of opportunities, including but not limited to purpose and facility, which render facilitating the sharing of intelligence with “Ukraine” to be of utility, without necessarily resorting to “effort” outwith interpretation and facilitation of opportunities derived therefrom, since all datastreams have utility for those with facility.”
Please…
“Please…”
The register of broadcasts in a surveillance environment tend towards some audiences not all.
However this time I’ll broadcast two pre-masticated examples from Ukraine to interpret/ponder, although the other comments throughout were not restricted to “Ukraine”.
1. “Sharing” intelligence with Azov Battalions in Azovstal on the diversities between what their “leadership” says and intends to do.
2. Sending notices of intent to “The United States of America” and one of its components “NATO”.
To be able to fight wars you must fight wars.
To have a functioning officer corps you must take your first lieutenants out and roll them in the mud and the blood.
Some of those who survive will be future generals who understand war.
The russians are paying a price in blood to learn modern war.
They are learning to fight against everything we can through at them.
Their military has been profoundly shaken and is different than it was three month ago.
Congratulations to Western PR efforts! You have successfully muddied the waters of discourse. Commenters now spend time attacking each other rather than reporting facts on the ground. Well done.
EastTexasDeplorable
Good point! Propaganda is cunning and insidious. Brings to mind all who are allowed a voice in the West – someone is doing the allowing.
Big Brother is watching.
Discussing important issues at stake and analyzing whther the sitruation has changed meaningfully is a lot more important than merely reporting facts on the ground (though I do not see that and why this should be mutually exclusive).
Ritter raises the important point of winning the war in terms of reaching the political objectives and that is a very important topic! Because military victory doesn’t automatically imply to win the war!! How many wars were apparently won militarily in human history and the subsequent peace was lost, i.e. military success without achieving the objectives that the war was fought for? No reporting about this battlefield victiory or that destroyed Ukrainian tank can answer these questions or even contribute to an answer.
Focussing on the military aspects alone risks missing the forest for the trees.
Amarynth – I like your voice in this Sitrep – distinctive in tone and calling for reason.
I am a fan of Scott Ritter. I respect the man and his record. I don’t know what is going on. If I was in his shoes, and some 3-letter agency offered me a suitcase with $10 million and told me they knew where my children were, God knows i might also change my interpretations of events.
Let’s not judge him too harshly. We do not know. All we can do is assess the facts on the grounds for ourselves with all the daily (sometimes contradictory) reports and use logic and common sense.
I have also found the MSM to be a great guide – assume they are lying 100% of the time.
Thanks for keeping this site going. Hope the Saker is well.
Moses
What worries me a bit is Gonzalos Lira. He was captured went dark and is now free again.
I hate to pose this question but what happened? In this war where information is the largest front, he has been captured, released and returned to action on “our” side?
Telling the truth is not only a revolutionary act, it requires tremendous courage and risk. GL is no exception. Most of us here use pseudonyms. Think about it.
Marytanov I can understand. The dumb F#s of the US military and intel agencies probably watch his videos to learn from.
Those are all possibilities Moses. What I am hoping for as I stated, is that he has conversation and debate with his peers.
Thus Moses sayeth… This is close to what I think. Scott has been pressured to change his mind.
I concur.
This is empire damage control mossad style SOP
‘we know where your children are’
the upcoming bio warfare evidence has got to be overshadowed at all costs
I feel bad for Ritter but he has lost relevance now.
If I was forced to compromise my message in such a manner I would be looking for ways to make sure it could be seen that what I am saying henceforth cannot be reconciled with what I was saying earlier, in order to subtly signal to my listeners that what I am saying henceforth is compromised.
Is that what Scott Ritter is doing now?
I agree.
What is incredible to me is that when corruption is uncovered, it is NEVER Hollywood movie $$ that corrupts these guys.
It is usually pitiful amounts, like $5,000 here and $10,000 there.
People sell their souls for chump change.
Scott’s main fault is in the assumption that new American initiative radically change situation. He “forgets” that US was CLANDESTINELY involved long before Maidan coup. The only difference was in the fact they didn’t asked Congress to approve cost of operations. It is possible that sums of money involved was larger than $40Billion. Only Maidan was financed with $5 billion in CASH. Which is at least 10 times more worth than “volatile” congressional aid.
Financialy, nothing changed, yet Scott sees it like “Gamechanger”.
What did change is location of training camps. I do not see how that can be a “Gamechanger”.
It is unclear will new army be trained to use modern western made weapons. Scott assumes that will be “Gamechanger” because of…reasons. So far, those weapons wasn’t performed well.
Western Intelligence was supplied to Ukraine all the time, so no change there.
Present Ukraine army was trained for 8 years to no avail. Remember narative from beginning of SMO, about modern army trained at NATO standards? Didn’t ended up well for them. But now, it suppose to be different. Because…reasons.
I would like to see some real data on how numerous is that imaginary army. Will there be foreign mercenaries involved and in what numbers. So far I can see only empty threats and promises with goal to encourage existing Ukraine military.
Thank you for a reasonable and analytical response.
“Western Intelligence was supplied to Ukraine all the time, so no change there.”
In a lateral perspective change is a constant whose constituents include, but are not limited to trajectories and velocities, within which are crested the agencies of others which “exceptionalists” are loathe to adequately acknowledge/evaluate through resort to assumptions/beliefs to bridge doubt, thereby facilitating changing opportunities for others with facility, since “intelligence” – more usefully described as datastreams – which was/is/will be supplied will also change.
“I would like to see some real data on how numerous is that imaginary army.”
“Real data” is unlikely to made available since doing so will likely jeopardise purpose, even if in hope some are emulating Mr. Rove’s – We are an Empire routine – which is largely a function of specific social relations within which attribution/what-a-clever-boy/girlness is regularly sought.
Yeah. This is simmilar to the Western preoccupation with “the lack of NCO’s” in Soviet /Russian/ army.
That comes from a total cultural miscomprehension. In the Russian Culture, meritocracy /natural leadership/ is prime and formal leadership comes only second.
A Russian unit with a commander-idiot WILL IGNORE HIM the moment one of the soldiers will be able to present a convincing argument to the others that it is so. AND the idiot commander will be reprimanded for this, as long as the situation gets resolved well – even against his will. This is facilitated by a way-above-west-average education level of the average soldier. Not to the level /average/ of a western NCO, but pretty close. It is normal for soldiers to read ‘Tzu over there and take note of it.
This can work only because the Russian military was born out of a “total war against and EXTERNAL threat” concept where you simply do not have the luxury of choosing your officers and pre-training them. Your only change is to *train/educate everyone* with the hope the bright will shine through. Their are “people’s armies” in the most foundational sense of the meaning.
To the contrary, the West does NOT see military as a survival asset but as a lever to subdue a competining power. This means two things. First, in a “amoral” force, you DO NOT WANT TO EDUCATE THE COMMON SOLDIER – for he may get funny ideas. Second. Since most of your wars are planned, you CAN /and kinda have to/ commission a strong NCO force which will compensate the lack of education in your average soldier and also keep the soldiers in check.
That boundary is not moral to be clear. It is borne out of necessity – Russia was never secure in its borders, so its Military purpose is till today geared against external threats. In the West, for centuries, militaries were primarily geared as an internal “policing” force and a colonial/subjugation force second. Defence of state is only their third priority force-structure-wise.
Thank you User for this new (to me) insight.
Well said. Just wondering, how Russian “defensive” army ended every war in the Enemy’s capitol?
Looks pretty offensive to me.
You put morals here. But my point was not about what the Russian military will do or why in a conflict.
It was about what it its primary strategic task is aka what it is DESIGNED to do. And how that – naturally – skews the assessment of their capabilities when looked via “western” lenses. They simply have different strengths and different weaknesses than the Western militaries.
What happens is some commenters see them as way more powerful than they are – going by a their strengths when compared to same aspect in West.
Other commenters, at the same time, see them as way weaker than they are – going by their weaknesses compared to the same aspects in the West.
Both groups are wrong.
——————————-
To expand:
Their military is developed as focused on effectively operating in a “total war” scenario first and foremost. This automatically presumes a structure which CANNOT rely on trained officers. This is a simple physical issue – you just cannot pre-man 1 million officers for your /planned/ 10-million army when your whole military is 1 million-strong. This means you must devise a structure which can operate with a way higher officer-soldier ratio than would be optimal with a professional force. And that, in turn, means you must give more /informal/ authority to the common soldier. Which, again in turn, means the officer that is there has less /formal/ authority as there are just too many soldiers under him to keep everything on tab. That creates the impression of a “disorganized” force. And they are. But that “disorganization” is also what gives them the adaptability.
Second, almost every (say 1/2+) -todays- professional soldier will become a squad leader or more in case of a mobilization. And that is his primary job you train him for. BUT. In a “peace” mode, you cannot have officer-only foot soldiers. That just does not work. So, on paper, you keep him as “just a soldier” and only pay him reasonably. This also means you do not need and “NCO” corps when 1/2 your soldiers are effectively trained to the “NCO” level.
This difference to the “traditional” Western approach may have moral connocations for some. But it is very explicitly NOT ABOUT THE MORALS for the Russians. Morals are, of course, “plastered” all over those decisions for PR reasons, but the foundational reasons have nothing to do with them.
you CAN /and kinda have to/ commission a strong NCO force which will compensate the lack of education in your average soldier and also keep the soldiers in check.
– so, like Azov “Brigade”!
Excellent analysis.
My own perception was always “The Russian soldier fights to defend his motherland. The Western soldier fights for money.”
But yours is a more precise understanding …
I would add that he ignores also how NATO works. He ignores that NATO is basically a money laundry scheme of continental scale. Whatever amount of money NATO/US signs off to send to Ukraine, I would say it will 99% finish in the pockets of the inner circle of corrupt politicians of US/NATO and its military complex owners and Ukraine oligarchs. 99% of the $ 40 B will never go out US in any physical manner.
Ritter went nuts or is really being deceitful.
The point of the $40 billion at this point is not so much to save Ukraine but to loot the US coffers and feed the MIC and war financiers.
One thing about Americans: if a fast buck can be made anywhere, neither love of God nor country can stop them.
This is an issue that nobody as far as I know, has fully plumbed. I think we can only take Afghanistan as an example. But it is a huge challenge to figure out what goes where.
It’s never been possible to figure out exactly what goes where regarding budgeting for military and other imperial activities of the USG and its owners. Case in point: the Iraq war where, if memory serves, much of the funding was happily declared by media to be “off budget.” Likewise, the CIA’s money bag handouts to sundry tools abroad is also off budget, at least as far as the public is allowed to know. Of course, there’s really no such thing as “off budget,” since resources get consumed, using up our productivity regardless of whether the USG accounts for it honestly or not (viz. Mr. Martyanov’s insistence on considering every country’s real economy, not its financial wheeling and dealing). Meanwhile, long-term hollowing out of the country’s non-military infrastructure goes on, leaving only the money grubbing “defense” industry intact to produce apparently non-functional weaponry.
So the $40 billion seems to be, effectively, just another payout to the MIC, if shocking in its amount on top of the already immensely bloated military budget. This is especially so in the light of all the points being made here and elsewhere regarding its inutility for changing the result in Ukraine.
I think we must consider Scott Ritter’s point re the $40B as more valid in terms of the USG apparently doubling down on the long term conflict. This is not so much that USG/NATO can much longer keep fighting substantially in Ukraine as much as a sign of its intention to keep the conflict with Russia and China on their peripheries at fever pitch in all ways possible: instigating proxy wars, attempts at color revolutions, heightened military encirclement, manipulation of media, etc. In that sense, the war will certainly go on. In this scenario, outside of it Ukraine would become largely a flashpoint for revanchist ideology, plenty of potboiler fiction, and very possibly refusal to condone a formal peace. Inside whatever would be left of it: minor skirmishes and sabotage ongoing, not too different from what gets instigated on Russia’s and China’s other borders.
One hopes Mr Ritter isn’t climbing aboard this sorry s—wagon to US all-around diminution, with global nuclear destruction always there as a further possible ending. But I don’t see from his stance in this controversy that that’s necessarily the case.
This article contains quite a few insights (translated from Polish):
“Amerykańska gra energetyczna o Europę”
“The American Energy Game for Europe”
https://www-mysl–polska-pl.translate.goog/1281?_x_tr_sch=http&_x_tr_sl=pl&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=sc
This link might not open. If not, paste in the Polish title and then choose “translate this page.”
Actually, it looks as though this article has three parts.
The main message from this Polish writer is the classic one: American policy always is geared to opening markets and investment opportunities for American companies, and damn the cost to the locals. He provides quite a lot of granular details as to the actual trajectory of PR and propaganda and talking points from think tanks through to the government, the media, and the public. Simultaneously carried to “allies” via State Department operatives. .
The Polish link was posted by someone at the Jorge Vilches thread, but the info seems to be relevant to this discussion.
Ritter has a naughty past. He has now been ‘got at’ by TPTB… that is: Ritter, come over to our side or we will release all the dirt on you in our possession.
I saw that too and wondered. Also surprised at the recent U-turn. The main thing is, just the fact that we can look at all these analyses and points of view, compare facts and be very happy that we have this site with meticulous moderators, so that we can see what is going on and discuss.
Let’s step away from that one and solely look at the merits and the substance here.
The substance is: he changed his opinion 180º overnight. Why? He’s been got at.
Gonzalo is fine, people like him. So, highlight him, announce his likely death after disappearing, dreadful, readers were enjoined to pray – holy Moses he came back!!! But how, and why, and where is he now ???
Is one even allowed to ask, and who’s making the film?
I read that Zelenskyi and the Poles have decided that Poles and Ukrainians are “fraternal peoples without borders”. I take this as an invitation for Polish troops to enter western Ukraine. This will take the Ukrainian War to the next level. The “new” Ukrainian Army will be a NATO army. This is an invitation for total war between NATO and Russia.
It helps to understand that the Anglo-Zionist Empire is rapidly imploding. It started with the United States going off the gold standard in 1971 and the establishment of the petrodollar to sustain the dollar as the world’s reserve currency in 1974. This was not without a price. From 1974 forward, the United States had to use military force or the threat of military force to retain its currency, economy, and imperium.
This brings inevitability to the equation. Before it’s too late, the Anglo-Zionists and their accomplices in the post-WWII settlement are making one, last desperate attempt to reestablish world hegemony and the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. They are in a race to accomplish this before their currencies and FIRE-based economies implode. The Anglo-Zionists and their accomplices are desperate to avoid this. It is a race against time. Both China and Russia are aware of this and are on a war footing. WWIII has, as it were, already started!
The only saving grace is hoping that the Anglo-Zionists are trying to call Russia and China “bluff” before the nuclear missiles start flying. The Anglo-Zionists will take it to the brink; they have no choice if they are to preserve their economies and privileges in the current global economic ecosystem. As escalation gets out of hand, Russia will also take it to the brink by eventually cutting off the EU’s gas and petroleum supplies. At this point, the EU and Western Europe will cease to exist because this will be the day that their economies cease to function. A nuclear war would make this state-of-affairs permanent.
It is an open question about which side will blink first!
Polish Troops don’t even need to enter Ukraine.
The parliament in Kiev could simply sign a document that states Western Ukraine is now temporarily part of Poland and now covered by the NATO umbrella and article 5.
There’s a lot of if’s, but’s and maybees to happen yet before it is over.
The options available to both sides are many.
I agree with your analysis till the point of nuclear exchange. Anglos are in no position to go nuclear as they will surely be damaged the most. Even in limited one. They have plenty of background to retreat and accumulated resources to continue good life after being dethroned. When ShHtF, they will negotiate and back off, leaving allies and proxies in tatters.
In short, you are anticipating that the Anglo-Zionists will blink first. I certainly hope so, but this presumes that rational people are in charge in the United States and the EU. The preponderance of the evidence is that they are not. Poland has demonstrated this by conspiring to think that it can “bleed” Russia into submission by continuing to arm Ukraine with the latest NATO toys. It cannot, so NATO is escalating. The EU political class also showed suicidal tendencies by threatening to put an end to Russian gas and oil without credible alternatives. Will it show the same bad judgment on the question of general war between NATO and Russia?
I give a special place to the Poles in this collective insanity in the West. As in the buildup to WWII, the Poles continue the bluster that they can win against Russia this time (with NATO instead of Great Britain, of course, coming to the rescue this time). The Poles precipitated the German attack on Poland in WWII by openly persecuting the Volksdeutsch living in Poland. The Polish military bragged that it would be in Berlin two weeks after hostilities broke out. A simple comparison of the respective German and Polish orders of battle would, however, have suggested otherwise. Now, Poland has stopped Russian gas and oil without alternative energy sources. It wants Lwow (to the Polish), Lviv (to the Ukrainians), Lvov (to the Russians), and Lemberg (to the Germans) back as a Polish city at any cost. As the saying goes, “History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes.” [?]
And, by the way, have you noticed that Zelensky and others in the Ukrainian hierarchy have Polish names? This is not immaterial in the politics being played between Poland and Ukraine.
In the aftermath of WWII, Poland was given German lands in the west to compensate Poland for Polish lands given to the Soviet Union in the east. Now, Poland wants Galicia (western Ukraine) back. What is this? Are the Poles delusional about reestablishing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 18th Century at any cost? Is this the real game that Poland is playing as it solicits guarantees from NATO, the EU, and the United States?
Hence, the Poles are the wild card in all of this. They are just as delusional and dangerous today as they were in 1939.
”In the aftermath of WWII, Poland was given German lands in the west to compensate Poland for Polish lands given to the Soviet Union in the east.”
They were not Polish lands.
They were former Tsarist/Soviet lands given to Josef Pilsudsky’s Poland and,then,taken back.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curzon_Line
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_of_Riga
They were former Tsarist/Soviet lands given to Josef Pilsudsky’s Poland
Not to put too fine a point on it, but Pilsudsky was not “given” the land. Poland’s army took the land from Russia, which was exhausted by their just-ended civil war. It’s also worth pointing out that France provided army officers and material support to the Polish dictator. The French were not grateful for the 550,000 Russian soldiers who had been massively sacrificed at the Battle of Tannenberg, a/k/a the Battle of the Masurin Lakes, 1914. to stop Germany’s Schliefen Plan and to save Paris. Russia has had to lern time and time again who their enemies are.
@GoDark: “And, by the way, have you noticed that Zelensky and others in the Ukrainian hierarchy have Polish names?”
No, I had not noticed. Thanks, the Polish connection is important, as you say:
“This is not immaterial in the politics being played between Poland and Ukraine. …Poland wants Galicia (western Ukraine) back. …Are the Poles delusional about reestablishing the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth of the 18th Century at any cost? Is this the real game that Poland is playing as it solicits guarantees from NATO, the EU, and the United States? Hence, the Poles … are just as delusional and dangerous today as they were in 1939.”
And may I say, just as irrelevant to the final outcome of the big war they helped to start.
PS my supervisor at a London college was a Pole of impeccable ethics and ability, but I could not help noticing the map on his wall: of an older and very much larger Poland.
Does this never end? I was stationed in West Germany in the 1970s in the US Air Force. I had a dear friend in the Luftwaffe that I had met at a military school in the United States. We were carving our way through a German train station. There was a map of Europe. I asked my friend, “What are those dotted lines in Poland?” His reply: “Those are the OCCUPIED territories!”
“The Anglo-Zionists will take it to the brink; they have no choice if they are to preserve their economies and privileges in the current global economic ecosystem.”
I believe they don’t really give a damn about “their economies” (otherwise they wouldn’t be trashing them, for example). They’re a cult of demon-possessed, devil-worshiping Satanists who care only about one thing: proselytizing the whole world for Satan – and destroying whoever and/or whatever they can’t corrupt.
“I read that Zelenskyi and the Poles have decided that Poles and Ukrainians are “fraternal peoples without borders”. I take this as an invitation for Polish troops to enter western Ukraine.”
And that will give Russia an invitation to enter eastern Poland “Ukraine”.
Years ago a police officer threaten to confiscate my rental property because he “knew” I accepted drugs from tenants in lieu of rent. I responded that I “knew” from authoritative sources that he had sex with kitty cats, and my sources were better than his. After he declined to shoot me, we got along fine. (I don’t trust any of those sources now.)
The fog of war is thick enough as it is. I assume that all commentators have hidden agendas and do my best to see the big picture despite bad inputs. Neither Vladimir nor anyone else from the MOD returns my calls, so just guess at what goes on.
I seriously doubt that the combined European NATO could muster a million man force, it would take most if not all of Europe to create that number solely for Ukraine(further referred to as 404)
The SMO operation by the RF forces is with a gloved hand, not the same merciless intensity that was shown to the NAZI’s during the Great Patriotic War(Grind the NAZI’s to dust)
It seems the initial operations goal, denazification, demilitarization and so on, after seeing clearly the true condition of 404 might change and be expanded to include a certain degree of occupation and a thorough cleansing and reorganization of 404 in total….my assumptions!
Ritter’ blathering about the value and change the touted $40 billion will make is absurd. He goes on to state it’s almost equal to RF total military budget of $43 Billion(using his numbers)
Well….if one is to take that at face value and apply comparisons, his thinking is ludicrous….the mighty US military budget is a whopping $850Billion and is no where comparable to either Ru or Chinas military !!! Close doesn’t count!
Secondly, of the $40Billion is going to 404’s military after all of the neocon controlled NGO’s and oligarchs siphon their Billion off to be laundered in the Caymans or Geneva, I don’t expect much left for the cannon fodder.
Ritter has simply become one of the many that follow the Pied Piper and echo the evil mantra.
Just one man’s opinion…it’s worth just what you paid for it.
Amarynth, you place a good perspective on the “experts” whose advice we seek and respect. Sometimes we don’t agree with them and it’s a reflex to question their motives. But nobody who contributes here has a monopoly of intellect or a unique ability to be always right. For me, one strength of reading contributions and comments on this site is the intelligent and largely respectful mutual consideration of a wide mixture of views within a general common position on geopolitics today. For me, if an analyst predicts an outcome and later accepts he/she was wrong, then this is a strength. Twisting facts to fit is a weakness.
People’s opinion changes with time and events. We don’t know the reasons for any change in any contributors’ positions, but I will for one, respect them and use them only as a part of building a coherent (at least for me) picture. Any coherence has to come from a mixture of verified facts, trusted opinions and even some faith that you are on “the right side”.
Keep up the great work.
Decorum (“behavior that is correct, calm, and polite”)
Ref. Italy.
It is often forgotten thaqt the current gov in Italy came to power effectively in a soft coup. Their power stands on clay foundations and they know it.
What is happening is they see the situation not going as hoped, so they start adjusting. But they do it more for domestic political reasons – to not be see as the idiots and bootlickers they are when the push comes to shove.
They do not give a fuss about Ukraine anymore than their handlers instruct them to. And even that only up to a point they feel safe and protected. Which they now stop feeling like.
When something cannot be followed logically, you follow the money. And, if the2re is any one thing the deep state excels at, it is getting to people (bribery, blackmail, intimidation etc.), and they seem to have gotten to Scott Ritter.
Ritter’s statements prior to this latest thing were a threat to a $40,000,000,000.00 deal; that HAD TO have brought him up on deep-state radars. Understanding this one does not strike me as overly difficult.
Military operations must always consider the hearts and minds of the opposition. The Russian MoD is fully aware of this. In regard to eastern Ukraine, it is probable that they underestimated the effects of 8 years of propagandizing on the residents. Although the Ukrainian military’s treatment of civilians undid the effects that propagandizing on those civilians who could not evacuate areas under military conflict, the civilians in western Ukraine have not been subject to the same degree of treatment, such as widespread use as human shields or execution if thought to be sympathetic with Russian goals.
Moreover, the majority of civilians in western Ukraine have previously evidenced, through elections prior to Maidan, aspirations toward social and political integration with the West.
That Russian plans regarding western Ukraine must include this reality regarding the hearts and minds of the residents of western Ukraine is a necessary conclusion. Russia is therefore faced with only three options that are consistent with the humanitarian values of the Russian state:
1) Military action in western Ukraine, followed by political suppression of residents’ political aspirations and activities. This is not a viable long-term option.
2) Ending the military operation at a geographical boundary within Ukraine that provides physical safety to the Russian homeland and to all local residents.
3) Demilitarization of western Ukraine followed by independently verified elections which would start the cycle all over again, due to the probability that those elections would result in pro-Western leadership.
Hearts and minds must be changed, and an integral component of that change must be the education of the world and, in particular of western Ukrainians, of the long term plans of the Western elites, such plans including the development and use of bioweapons.
My preference is to discontinue the use of the term “Information War”, as that term implies equality of the two conflicting sides. We are all in a war of Truth vs. Lies and it is only by winning that war that this current military conflict will end.
Thank you for a reasoned comment.
This is my version of the argument already put forward.
Thinking about Scott Ritter’s argument and looking for a flaw, what I notice is that the other wars he compares with the Ukraine situation are all military occupations. That holds up if one supposes the local population is hostile to the Russians. In south eastern Ukraine apparently they are not, and the formation of a new political entity in the Donbass and the area generally appears to be a done deal, no problem.
Harder to say about the western Ukraine. For now at least, it appears that the Ukraine regime lacks the local support needed to sustain an insurgency or a more guerilla war type effort. If they had it, they could disperse the incoming weapons more and make it tough for the Russians to take them out.
Ciaran —
A 4th possibility would be to cede western-Ukraine ( Galicia ) to Poland. Such would shift the “pro-west” troublemakers around Luvov from the Russian orbit. Slight adjustements to the Hungarian and Romanian borders might also be made. Should Russia keep the Russian speaking east and Black Sea, Ukraine woud become a lanlocked neutral buffer with the wherewithal to earn an income selling grain internationally.
Hello Amarynth,
I don´t know if I have ever told you thank you, for your efforts on this blog. It is my opinion you are a good egg, you are okay by me. I grew tired of hating, long before I knew it was all wrong … and why. My presence here is out of personal interest, in being aware of the importance of events concerning history as it unfolds. My team is humanity.
What I get out of your article is pretty straight forward: Why is Lt. Col. Ritter saying what he is saying now? The answer is equally straight forward: he is breaking down, he is done. He reached his limit, by the box designed for him and which he accepted. In this process of cracking up, a very human one, he has broken some major rules. It is one more life, mind, quietly hit in mid flight and going down flaming. He will recover some public status but, the insides are a mess. His way back is possible but, not likely. The visual healing will only mask instability.
US Marines, as I was taught, are prepared to fight and kill anything and anybody, in any location. There is a long explanation for this and adherence is not universal but, that these are topics for another day. We don´t need a motherland to fight with ferocity. The impetus for how we fight, runs to the core of human existence. We have been designed that way.
This is why opinions from those in other branches of the US military services or from those of other countries, are kind of laughable to us. Think along the line of being a child of Mars, to do what the god of war deems necessary to accomplish the tasks set forth for us and you will begin the journey to understanding our state of existence. There is no glory or pride in this. We are condemned, by our own hands. As they say, when we die, we go to hell and regroup. With time and experience, a US Marine can discover there are other paths which offer a choice. But, politics, selfishness and other things, must not be part of it or there will be no redemption.
In this light, Scott Ritter committed a mortal sin …… by abandoning the truth. I feel for him. He is nolonger trustworthy, regardless of his previous thoughts and actions. He did it because, and this is the greatest of sins among us, to appease the politics. You can never abandon the truth, once you know something is true. As is also said in our little club, your a * * may belong to the Corps but, your soul belongs to God. For all that is wrong with our organization, we do submit to sovereignty of The Creator. As I stated previously, it is not universally accepted nor does it need to be. Existence and destiny, as much as is revenge, belong to God and each human being will recieve their own journey.
Not very pretty stuff huh? I know. But, you asked and I respect you. So, I explained it as best possible for me to do. I hope what I have set forth here helps you.
Respectfully,
John
Goodness John, you’re talking about a sphere that I may not be familiar with. I just hope what you say is really not so! I’m hoping that discussions with his peers will perhaps do something good. Larry Johnson asked for that.
There are so few of us. I don’t want to lose ‘us’.
Thank you for the reply Amarynth. It was kind.
If you care about Ritter, than do not trust him. He is broken. I am not suggesting cruelty, fore cruelty has broken him. Stand your ground, be brave for what you know is true. If he sees enough of this, he will return. My kind will fight with not just violence but, with all of their creativity and logic, being duty bound if it is worthy. It is his perception of reality that has clouded his public position; an obvious indicator of serious internal damage.
I must treat him by the book, he goes into the circular file for now. He needs to stop the BS and come clean, before I can even listen to him again. He knows the rules. If he does his penance with honor, then he can return. But he has to want it. You however are bound by none of this. So, your courage, shown by someone outside of our circle, can be of immense help to him. This also applies to others who were never part of the Corps.
I opened up a bit about US today. Most of the time my brothers will not speak like this to the rest of the planet. And even among US, this is a rare conversation. Nobody listens, everybody thinks we mindless Orcs. Muuuuuuahahaha!
Russia has won, if it stays on the path. Many will be lost on the journey. War is the most horrifying amongst all human activity, basically because it turns it´s back on truth. You are a feeling person, I see. It is normal to fear loss, I understand that. But, you are not alone and never will be.
I wish peace to you Amarynth.
U.S. marines – NATO forces – have been sent to fight a “preventive” (or a politician’s) war too many times. I believe there is no power natural or supernatural that dares to go to Ukraine to fight right now. Besides their WWII military history and the closeness of Ukraine to Russia, it is known that there is no defense against hypersonic weapons, namely that ships and planes have no way to defend themselves against something faster than any weapon ever known; there’s video of its flying in Ukraine. No other nation has hypersonic weapons like Russia does even though China spends twice as much as Russia on its military, and the U.S. spends more than ten times more. Hardly any of the expert pundits wants to even say “hypersonic” on television; they mention the word “nuclear” a lot instead. They themselves might be unaware of the oddity of this, but this happens because we all know nuclear but we don’t know hypersonic, frankly put. So, I call them the “hyper-what” (while it’s timely).
On military courage, the Emperor Julian (331-363 AD) used to fight together with his soldiers always, as did other emperors before and after him. He would sometimes stand in the back to stop soldiers from retreating; he would fight wherever he thought he was most needed. Later the soldiers elevated him to the Emperor position. Julian had no fear even when he was dying. He wrote in a letter that he had faced “fear” many times and had found that it retreats. He said to his soldiers surrounding him as he was dying that he thought his lack of fear in this final instance was divinely arranged for their benefit (perhaps even he was a little amazed by his lack of fear then). They began to cry and he told them that it was undignified and to be happy for him, rather. There are no Julians today.
U.S. stated goals:
-Permanently degrade Russia military + economy
– Ensure war lasts many years
U.S. unstated goals:
– Ensure Dems get re-elected in glorious wartime
– Spend craptons of money on military,
which gets funnelled back as kickbacks
– Maintain and ensure political hegemony
– Maintain and ensure hegemony of US dollar
– Destroy Germany’s/EU’s economy, so it can be vultured and sold off to American interests; leaving America last man standing, as after WWII.
How best to accomplish these goals?
$50B is chump change to a trillion-dollar military budget. The money will keep flowing until it stops; there is little physical barrier to US whirr spending itself into the ground, only political will. So, Predicting at least one more and possibly three more tranches of circa $50B.
Commentators assume extension of current situation with troops. But US gets countermoves, too.
Scenarios:
1. US Senators come to their senses, cut losses, accept defeat and pull out;
2. US keeps war going at low level (Syria), keeps telling people “just one more tranche will win it”, spends money while proclaiming wins, without major escalations; this would keep conflict bottled up in Ukr and ensure against nuclear exchange, sane;
3. US escalates with mercenaries, eg from Syria, Blackwater, “resigned” “volunteers”;
4. Undeclared NATO country escalations, including Poland, Baltics, Germany;
5. Full NATO invasion;
6. Full US invasion.
At some point costs become prohibitive and unrealistic, but when?
People say South Vietnam, but I think possibilities of North Korea. US had won against NK until China entered the war, with basically unlimited resources. At which point meat-grinding stepped up to a whole new level. Fought to a bitter draw, armistice.
NATO or its countries hypothetically could be motivated to enter the war with a FF of sufficient degree to drive them into a suicidal rage.
This would give more trained troops, and change the situation.
Would it work? Hard to say. Will the folks running the war try escalating? I dont see (1) nor (6) happening any time soon. (2) thru (5) seem fair game.
Perfect, love it.
Maybe someone can use the way I took Ritter. Ritter made splendid analysis and suddenly he spew poison.
I became in doubt myself and had to analyse it deeper before I arrived to my previous platform, that no one has a chinaman’s chance against a throughout professional Russian team, not a single damn chance.
The next thing is the personal matter. For me the personal labelling is not important as long I maintain and dont miss out the factual platform myself, but I understand professional people with more knowledge who say this must stop, because it damage people, waste people’s time and the cause.
I imagine thats the way they train double agents, having a factual opinion one day and when confidence is finally obtained, turn on a coin. So from my side grateful to you who took time upon yourself to correct the case.
Covers all points beautifully.
Covers the big picture thinking on all sides perfectly.
Well done Amarynth. Keep up the good work.
The Truth:
Nobody knows how far NATO are prepared to go in Ukraine and what their strategy is. Apart from those in the loop.
Nobody knows how far Russia are prepared to go in Ukraine and what their strategy is. Apart from those in the loop.
Nobody knows what the map will look like when it comes to an end. Not even those in the loop. As everything is still to play for.
Why mistakes can be made by all sides when trying to use a crystal ball to predict what is going to happen next. Nobody knows, even though they sound certain they do know. If anything the “grind ” has been very unpredictable with moving landscapes. Not played out the way many people thought it would. for example , Russia have rewritten the war playbook and NOBODY saw that coming.
For me this piece should have been the initial reaction. Fully open and debatable covering all points beautifully . Instead of the over reaction and lashing out because of a tiny little bit of criticism of Russia by Ritter.
Which was never a 180 more like a 45 degree turn.
Any criticism of Russia should be treated with kid gloves not like a baying mob. Otherwise there is no difference between Russia and the West.
The Kremlin shows you how to do it properly. They never lash out at every bit of criticism they choose their battles very carefully.
Excellent response!
Once the dogs of war are unleashed, nobody can predict what will happen.
I appreciate ALL of the non-MSM propaganda voices that can understand the justification Russia had for undertaking the SMO. I see no reason to discard one simply because it no longer agrees with “Russia-can-do-wrong” mindset.
Paul Craig Roberts is another voice that has harshly criticized the Kremlin for perceived missteps and a go-too-slow mentality, based upon his understanding of too many pro-Western voices still in the inner circle. I cannot argue yeah or nay against his contentions, but I do appreciate his viewpoint.
The fanatics who argue “If you’re not with me, you’re against me” are those who need to be avoided.
Correction: *Russia-can-do-NO-wrong” mindset.
So true Thor…
I’m only guessing but the problems could stem from being inpatient.
Everybody wants to know everything up front and what’s happening on an hour by your basis. Me included.
Which is impossible, as we are all on the Kremlin’s timetable they’ll decide when they have completed their objectives and nobody else.
Then it is a wait and see what NATO does.
Loads of patience are going to be needed and not many of us have it under these circumstances. So mistakes happen.
What if VVP doesn’t want to win this war?
With ten times the forces the war would have been over in 1 day, lots of lives saved (well, I heard all that stuff too often, how brilliant the SMO is designed to save lives, Truman defended Hiroshima and Nagasaki with the very same arguments that “many lives could be saved”.
What if? But since such questions cannot be asked, keep kicking the can.
Maybe Igor Girkin wasn’t all that wrong in the first place.
Regards from and to Davos.
Maybe VVP wants to drag the war on. Look how it is ruining the West. Why cut the party short when it is just getting started.
Rubles for wheat and minerals next.
And do you know, whose planned agenda this kind of de-Dollarization and gold-backed central bank run digital currencies (don’t confuse this with crypto) was and is?
That of the old masters that privately own the USD/EUR and cheated humanity another 109 years.
Every 80 to 100 years they usually create hyperinflation and move along to a new host.
I predicted what is happening on several telegram channels.
And so do people like former Worldbank consultant Ernst Wolff, but nobody can imagine it.
It smells like Debaltsovo 2.0
But every time I myself hope that I’m wrong, believe me that. But where are we now? At the beginning of all the stuff that belongs to 8 years from now if I can encode it like that. I still hope, I’m wrong. But my hope gets smaller by the day. We are now on the 89th. And I cannot even read gazeta.ru without vpn-proxy.
The “West” is intentionally self-destroying. Nobody of the ones involved can convince me they do not know that.
Ask yourself then: How is that possible? And who pulls which strings?
Oh, come on!
I am certainly aware that there might be ( and most likely are) traitors and fifth columnists in very high places that sabotage Russia’s SMO on many areas. But to think that Putin started this with the aim to lose it is the most ridiculous bs that I have heard in a very long time! And it has zero facts to support it.
there are many possible reasons why Russia didn’t send more troops initially and they are all speculative – none of us can know them. BUT: the notion that “this war would be over in a day/week if Russia had sent 10x as many troops” is complete nonsense from a military point of view.
first, limitations of space on battlefield, roads, logistics etc.. Second: Storming a heavily fortified area with 10 times the troops doesn’t result in taking it instantly; instead it will result in you sustaining a multiple of losses necessary while gaining very little in terms of time. You do sth like that only if there is a bigger military reason to advance very quickly in a certain area or you need a fast victiory for propaganda purposes “no matter the price”. Stalin ordered the latter repeatedly, btw. The USSR won the war regardless, but certainly not because of stalin but despite him. (This militarily grossly incompetent man did contribute heavily to the Red Army’s defeat in the battle at the Wisla in 1920 btw. and millions of Soviet people would not have died unnecessarily had the Bolsheviki liqduidated Stalin back then for his behavior)
One day war with a million soldiers?
Please!
Zero facts? Not true, perhaps you are no expert regarding the financial system. Such things don’t “evolve” by “accident”. Everything on this planet goes exactly the way, the satanic zionistic fashists from Davos planned it.
That by itself is proof.
But if you need more, check this out:
Episode 416 – SHOCKING Document Reveals Trudeau’s REAL Plan!
Corbett • 03/19/2022 • 127 Comments
https://www.corbettreport.com/putin/
I don’t say it has to be like that, my preference would be: It is all nonsense.
But some stuff is difficult to explain.
As of Stalin: You hate me for daring to have the slightest doubts and questions regarding your beloved hero. And in the instance of a second yourself attack somebody of at least the same magnitude (certainly higher).
But militarily it is true but at the same time not, how you argue: With a million soldiers you would simply shock-paralyze all of Ukraine and her self-proclaimed leadership rats would have fled to USA or Israel within hours. Everybody would have given up and it would have been May 9th ’45 style. That’s point A, what you claim about Stalin is often brought up by SS-loving Nazi Nostalgia armchair analysts from DE or Britain. Well, yeah. Stalin only harmed the USSR and she did not flourish because of Stalin, but despite of him. Yeap, sure. Explain that to others.
Putin isn’t “my beloved hero” if you meant to say that and I don’t hate you at all – why should I? I didn’t even actually attack Stalin, I just pointed out facts. He and Budjonny fought their private wars besides that of the Red army, disobeyed orders and literally MISSED the battle at the Wisla which led to the Red Army’s defeat. The Polish hate Stalin (for good reasons and for not so good ones) but very few are aware that his utter incompetence might have been the decisive factor that the Red Army didn’t take Warsaw in 1920. Today’s Poland might not even exist without Stalin! Talk about irony in history!
Stalin liquidated/imprisoned most of the most senior Soviet officers in the 1930s, he IGNORED EVERY warning of the impending German attack in 1941 (for instance Dr Sorge in Tokyo sent extremely accurate intelligence!). Stalin believed in his infallibility and that he had read Hitler correctly and that Hitler wouldn’t attack the USSR without first taking Britain. The rest is history and over 20 million Soviet citizen dead.
As for your general argument: Yes, a lot happens behind the curtains, is invisible and there are far fewer accidental developments than people assume. Still, it’s bs to believe that everything is planned and perfectly executed by the Davos men. If you believe in that crap then from where do you derive any hope? If “THEY” control and rule everything anyway and everyone everywhere is their tool and puppet?
As for Trudeau: the less time wasted on this utterly dumb slimebag and weasel the better.
I could go on, but I won’t. Try to get out of your fatalist bubble!
Thanks for your response and sorry for the late follow-up, little time here.
Only so much: {Stalin ignored warnings, that Hitler would attack}
Correct: Because FDR repeatedly and openly stated, he would support the one site of a potential conflict, that is not the aggressor.
You see it here and now: USA/Ukraine proxy prepared an attack on DonBass and even RF, but Russia didn’t wait for that but defended herself first. Now gets portrayed as the bad guy.
So perhaps Stalin’s decision to wait wasn’t the one that caused 27 Million Soviet lives, but the one that secured, a chance would remain to win ww2, and not lose all of Russia?
Because it is known, that USA/UK wanted to first destroy Germany and then let Russia do the hard work, but then they planned to destroy the weakened Russia next.
Even after Russia won the war and USA/UK stole the credit for it, they wanted to re-arm 100.000 German Nazi soldiers and attack Russia by 1.6. or 1.7.1945:
OPERATION UNTHINKABLE
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Unthinkable#:~:text=Operation%20Unthinkable%20was%20the%20name,were%20never%20approved%20nor%20implemented.
{TRUDEAU}
My response: Are you sure, you watched the video to the end, not just the first 12 minutes?
If so, please explain me, how all of that is possible. Thanks in advance.
And yes, I believe in nothing anymore. Except perhaps in God (but not so much in religions).
There are good people and satanic lizards on all sides.
Even in western Ukraine there are many really good-hearted people. I cannot hate them as much as the young western oriented generation of Russians living in the RF, but orienting all of their ideals on the “good democracy-loving peace-loving” USA and EU, there are many such examples, but here is one of them. This person is so bright and at the same time so blind. Cognitive dissonance…..
https://www.russianwithmax.com/138-problems-of-modern-russia-dialogue-with-vanya-part-2/
https://www.russianwithmax.com/podcast/page/5/
He himself, his wife and all the Russian traitors he keeps interviewing, while kicking everybody who disagrees with them (like me) out.
Patience is a virtue, rarely seen these days. We must take it as a teaching lesson.
The reason why the Scott Ritter matter – as it may become known – is even an issue is because here we have a situation right before our eyes of a person with professional credentials, a certain degree of credibility, & decent analytical capability, being co-opted before our eyes. It is evident to anyone paying attention that something happened to/with Ritter. Initially, I found his provisional analysis fairly spot on, I always took issue with placing time limits on when Russia’s SMO operation would be complete – & when it should be complete, because no one is in a position to either know this, or make a judgement on progress, than those that set the objectives & devised the plan for the operation in the first place – the Russian government & General Staff. This is what I mean by “a certain degree of credibility” on Ritter’s part, because he may be the best military analyst anywhere in the world, but he simply can not know these facts, & a responsible analyst/commentator would steer clear of making judgements on timing. So the first flaw with Ritter is here, from the start, before his 180 switch. Ritter’s analysis initially was helpful in his explanation of the manner in which the Russian military need to “shape the battlefield”, this was in my view, a very good & helpful analysis. Ritter also explained here why the timing may be slow – then he also explained the Kiev “diversion” really well, as far as I know, Ritter was the first person to figure out or speak on the Russian moves around Kiev as a diversionary tactic. I think he was spot on here & it was an excellent analysis. Essentially, the situation now, is the Russian military acting out on the consequences of the diversion, they have the Ukro army surrounded & are grinding them into oblivion.
So – then comes the 180 switch. Here is the problem – just take Russia’s stated objectives: to demilitarize & denazify Ukraine. Mark the wording & what it means. Russia has not said to deal with a part of Ukraine, or just the Donbass, no, Russia has said its objectives are for Ukraine – & that means Ukraine entire. So the SMO is going to extend throughout the entirety of Ukraine, I can not stress enough how important that is because placing 2 month time limits on Russia’s operations in this context, in light of the objectives they have set for themselves, is totally ridiculous. I heard Ritter say on Medhurst’s podcast that Russia had also failed on NATO expansion because of Sweden & Finland’s application to join – i mean this is just pathetic & exposes Ritter as having been coopted, because what does Sweden & Finland joining NATO have to do with the Russian SMO? Nothing at all. What can Russia do about any new potential members of NATO other than Ukraine? I will leave it here or this will become an essay, but it is important to analyse this because here we have an example of someone being “got” by the NATO machinery before our very eyes. Ritter sold out.
Scholz’s comments are indeed interesting especially about in essence, there being serious issues to discuss rather than just go to a meeting for the purpose of photoshoots. This is a change of tone for Scholz, quite markedly. What I find most astonishing about all of this is that Zelensky is clearly a pathological liar, a seeker of fame and publicity, a Dictator of the worst kind and most decidedly not a politician. It is right for people to comment that the Ukranians are lying through their teeth about military victories and just about everything else. I am at a complete loss as to how the collective West and NATO Leaders (except Orban and Erdogan) are willing to debase themselves in their fawning adoration of and obsequience to Zelensky and their support of what are, indisputably, Nazis and Nazi ideology at the bedrock of Ukranian politics. The man is a dangerous, very dangerous idiot. He has no political knowledge. His cabinet are not politicians but friends from television. He has not one iota of statesmanship or political leadership. I believe Zelensky thinks this is a jolly good game with plenty of photo opportunities for him and also in which he can get billions of money from the West of which, of course, I am in no doubt, quite a bit goes to fund his luxury mansions and his offshore holdings of US$2 bn. Yet the Western Leaders all bow before him in adoration. It is so embarrassing, just so humiliating. I wonder what they are going to feel when all this is over.
On the other hand, there is President Putin. A true Statesman. A true Leader. He is hands on in decision making about the War and is supported by a highly talented and knowledgeable Military elite and politicians in the Duma. The Ukranian people need to take up their arms against this Government. The Ukie Army need to surrender in total.
Excellent comments, Jo, as usual.
Zelensky is a horrible embarrassment to western politicians who kowtow before him.
But I douiblt that they will ever notice this.
The kowtosing to Netanyahu was also cringe-worthy, but the kowowers seem not to notice their debasement.
Actually, the “take the knee” reaction is also part of the worship of St. Fauci in the pandemic op.
I think it folly to believe everything that comes from the Russian side. While the Kremlin is generally terse and factual, there is understandably a lot of patriotism and bravado among supporters which must be taken with a grain of salt.
The West should not be underestimated. They have not ruled the world for the past several centuries because they lack will or cunning.
The English, German, French, Dutch, Belgian, Spanish, Portuguese, Holy Roman Empire (have I missed someone) have all lost colonies within the last two hundred years, and failed to conquer and gain any territory (don’t mention Afghanistan).
So who, precisely, are the rulers and over what do they rule?
I think it’s useful to take Ritter seriously. Money does seem to make the world go round (as the song goes) at least to some extent. NATO can raise a large army, easily, by hiring mercenaries–and there are plenty around the world that live to fight. I think Ritter is alerting us to the fact the West has almost unlimited funds and will use them without fear of public condemnation. As we speak there are, I’m guessing, hundreds of tactical and strategic plans being developed within the structure of the Deep State because that is what the gargantuan security structure is tasked to do. And let’s not forget the Western intel structure and covert armies that roam the world (talk to and ex-SAS soldier sometime, as I have, to get an earful) will be tasked to cause all manner of mischief.
My evaluation, based on some experience in Washington politics is that this war will last decades. Washington requires (i.e., cannot live without) some kind of fairly competent “enemy” to go up against to earn public support. Every real or imagined conflict increases the power of the Deep State. The completely controlled (by Western intel) mainstream media and increasingly the blogosphere/podcastsphere is an asset that guarantees at least a decade of public compliance. Don’t be fooled that people in the West will “get tired” of war and high prices–they won’t unless some faction of the oligarchy decides they will in their internal power-struggles. The globo-cap economy is unlikely to fail as value in terms of money becomes increasingly fictional the authors of those fictions can always make a new fiction.
Few people have any idea how tightly controlled the Empire actually is. This control is distributed and organized along the line of a neural networks. Everyone in any position of authority is conditioned by two iron laws: no good deed goes unpunished, and cover your ass. The rewards for “success” are spectacularly high if you go along to get along and the penalties for failing to to along is the end of a career. Thus the system can invent all sorts of absurd fantasies and pass them for reality in a society that hungers for fantasies–people will “believe” those fantasies even if they don’t. Hopes for a failing economy, inflation, shortages as fueling dissatisfaction are pipe dreams–in the US at least there is absolutely no chance dissidents can get traction except if they play up some variant of the Narrative fantasy as Trump did but even he dramatically failed to have ANY effect on the career of the Deep State.
My fear is that as Washington spends (eventually) a couple of trillion on this war that Russia will have to use its strategic weapons (hopefully without nuclear warheads) on an escalating series of strikes. Then the negotiations Russia should be pursuing is not with the Washington pirates and their vassals but corporate and finance oligarchs around the world. Russia needs to see that this whole war will continue because there is money to be made whether Ukraine forces or mercenaries win or lose (in fact, losing may be more profitable) for the current factions in power.
Ukraine (with Western help) cannot advance against Russia without losing a 100,000 soldiers = the end of Zelensky … like the veterans last time told Poro he would be assasinated if he did not end the war.
“talk to an ex-SAS soldier.” I’d ask the fifteen members of 42 Commando, “Why were you captured by the IRGC?” Or, of the SAS in Libya, “Why were you captured by peasants?” Or, of the two US riverine commando boats, “Why were you captured by the IRGC?”
This ‘war’ will end when Western price-inflation becomes a political threat.
John Mark Dougan has an interesting talk with a German journalist in Mariupol
https://youtu.be/hy9a2aksC0A
Fully agree with Gonzalo Lira’s points about:
*Russian military is actually restraining itself
*NATO
loudmouthspundit are vicarious adrenaline junkiesWhat really confuses me is why NATO countries cry about depleted arsenals, yet fail to convert to a wartime economy. In Western Canada the unemployment is still quite high (~7%). If the
FreelandTrudeau regime were serious they could convert to a wartime economy and alleviate multiple problems:*Build pipelines to reduce petroleum prices, and increase stocks of refined fuels
*Create many more jobs, which would both increase tax revenues and allow inflation to tame itself
*Build many more LNG export terminals to supply Europe (at a hefty profit)
*Increase technology base by manufacturing more aircraft, tanks, artillery, etc.
I can only speculate as to why Chrystia Freeland, the de facto ruler of Canada, and her regime do not change Canada’s economy:
*She and her minions are naive about what is going on
*She and her minions are supremely incompetent
I have no doubt Freeland is still in (quiet) close contact with George Soros, for whom she wrote a biography. Based on her actions, I am doubtful she is playing “5D chess” to de-populate the world; if she was, she could have Canada mass produce resources and materials to fuel the war machine in her beloved Ukraine.
Not only is Russian restraining itself, also the West does not give all. It gives old weapons and paper money. That is easy. They do not supply any rockets to could really hit Russia where it hurts. Only exception maybe the Moskva ship incident – but not sure what really happened there. Because the one step more, and that escalates to a real war. And noone wants that, because that would hurt everyone.
And starting a war time production would escalate. Because then Russia has a choice – to attack preemptively. Or at least cut all gas and oil to ruin the production. So the west can only very quietly increase its efforts.
And starting a war time production would escalate. Because then Russia has a choice – to attack preemptively. Or at least cut all gas and oil to ruin the production.
That could possibly be true for Europe, but not Canada because:
*Canada has nearly as much natural resources as Russia
*North America is buffered by two oceans
*Canada’s military is obsolete, requiring $100+ BILLION to completely refurbish.
It is true that Kaliber cruise missiles with ~4,500km range can hit the edge of North America from Vladivostok; however as per President Putin’s modus operandi the Russian government wants a clear legal justification to declare war against Canada or USA. Until that happens there is nothing Russia can do to stop Canada from building new pipelines to the USA, or send trains 24/7 to Lockheed-Martin, Raytheon, & other USA-based merchants of death. Short of military action the Russian government cannot stop Canada from building new F-35 or tank factories in Canadian cities.
In terms of capital equipment Canada needs absolutely everything:
*Strategic airlift
*Tanks
*Artillery
*Frigates
*Submarines
*Fighters
*Helicopters
*Munitions
*and many other items
Again, if the Trudeau regime were actually competent and/or serious it would be easy to build what Canada needs, and triple that number to sell the “surplus” to Europe. All without raising too much suspicion.
That said, perhaps I missed a third reason for Canada not converting (yet) to a wartime economy: God is not allowing it. 😁
Again, if the Trudeau regime were actually competent and/or serious it would be easy to build what Canada needs, and triple that number to sell the “surplus” to Europe.
Good way to be out of office quickly. Much of the Canadian public would go ballistic. Besides we do not have the industrial infrastructure to do this i under maybe 5–10 years.
Freidland has reached the end of her rope. She tried to emergency power her self like zelinsky and the Canadian population started to stand up. We are quite polite. Sort of. Til you cackle like a witch on tv about seizing families bank accounts for political process. Our police in Ottawa wouldnt step on our protesters hard enough and they had to bring in private security goons to do it. I see take Trudeau to the train station bumper stickers everywhere now. Further abuse of emergency powers will blow up in her face. Most Canadians cooperate with our gov. Til we don’t. Everything stops when we don’t.
As an impulsive thinker (i know because I too am one), Ritter often grasps the big picture before others do but also tends to overreach in his assessments and predictions. Having closely followed this latest flap with Lira and others, I’ve come to believe that Ritter suddenly became concerned that Russia may not yet fully realize that this is no longer a special military operation (which Ritter has always assumed Russia could win) but a full-blown geopolitical war between East and West (which he understandably fears Russia may not win). Thus his impulse was to speak a warning to Russia and to all of us who long for a multi-polar world. Sadly, that warning, well-meant whether right or wrong, triggered the cancel culture beast that now lives inside all of us. Thank you, Amarynth, for trying to refocus this flap on reason rather than emotion. Cancel culture, with all its acrimony and divisiveness, is the West’s game, not ours, and we play it at our peril.
Well said.
I agree quite strongly with your view of Ritter’s impulsive thinking, assessments and predictions. Whether he was attempting to warn Russia based on his concerns about “a full-blown geopolitical war between East and West” might be open to some question. However, I don’t see Ritter’s recent comments as any more worthy of blanket condemnation than many of those made by Paul Craig Roberts among others. Ritter’s case is being seen as a radical change in perspective more than Roberts’ more consistently pessimistic criticisms, and I suppose that some disappointment and even some suspicion is justified in that respect. Even so, many of the reactions seem just a little bit overblown to me.
I think the most likely explanation for Scott Ritter’s swing are:
1) Blackmail / threats from the PTB to him and/or his family
2) Scott is “allowed/consented/controlled opposition”, that is allowed to speak freely until it gets more traction, more audience or cross specific red lines. This happens a lot in my country (Brazil), which is currently suffering from high inflation and the media, despite being against Bolsonaro, reports the economic crisis as some natural phenomena, not linked to Bolsonaro’s disastrous economic policies that favores only FIRE sector (which the local media conglomerates are distinct members).
3). An honest mistake ?
Which can happen using a crystal ball trying to figure out what happens next.
The day you think everyone is out to get you. You might as well not leave the house.
You’re right, Billy, it can be a mistake that May be justified by info available to Scott only i.e. Scott knows something we and other analysts don’t know. Unlikely, but still possible.
I just have that “deja-vu” feeling when I see such swinging position, as described in the item 2 of my comment.
It’s not an honest mistake because his rushed disclosure came contrary to basic human psychology. This is simply not how human mind work. People get entrenched in their initial assessments and coming to a different evaluation would have taken weeks if not months of slow coming to realisation, if at all, and a public disclosure would not even be guaranteed. His U-turn is absolutely not organic. It’s not a matter of how correct his new position is, it’s plainly that it would be impossible for someone with such a strong bias to reverse his opinion so rapidly and to admit it publicly so vehemently.
Note to China: Taiwan isn’t going anywhere. While the US is busy laying traps, drive the economic /BRI agenda with Zone B and defang the Serpent of Lies.
‘…a 404 “New Model Army” is American wishful thinking’.
By the way – and it’s not entirely irrelevant – Oliver Cromwell’s New Model Army of 1645 was thoroughly, and even fanatically, Christian. No one who was not exactly the right kind of Protestant Puritan – and of spotless character – even got in the door. The NMO had very high morale both because Cromwell, its commander, was an exceptionally successful general, and because every soldier knew that all his comrades in arms shared his strong religious views and were willing to die for their cause – and, if necessary, for him.
In stark contrast, the Ukrainian regime in Kiev is explicitly and outspokenly atheist, and even rejects ordinary common human values. And many of its soldiers must know that their fellow soldiers, and especially the Nazi terrorists, would be unlikely to sacrifice themselves. That, of course, is true in spades of their “government”, as it is owned and controlled by Washington, one of whose main aims is to cause the absolute maximum of death and destruction in Ukraine so as “to weaken Russia”.
And the Soviet army which defeated Hitler was not atheist?
Cromwell is one of my favourite historical/political figures, and I’m an atheist.
All Ritter is bottom line saying is that this war will widen. I think he was hoping, as all of us, that the SMO would make it’s point & “sanctioned from hell” Russia & West would part & a new Cold War would emerge. Now he, as well as most of us, see the West is moving on with their scorched earth policy, including with China & WW3 is the choice. Anyone thinking that the “collapse” will alter this path, far from it, the West will dig in deeper, and print more billions. Nitpicking over the cesspool that is Ukraine, whose outcome is obvious is a waste of time. Russia did what she could to prevent this course, it’s seems there’s no stopping stupidity. And it’s much too early to read the tea leaves, however, Ukraine’s done.
Jacob Dreizin has recently published criticism of Scott Ritter in even more harsh terms than Gonzalo Lira had: https://thedreizinreport.com/2022/05/20/the-1-structural-problem-with-u-s-governance/
Dreizen is also IMO a bit over the top.
Actually suppressed some comments that pointed out that his own “corrections” were incorrect.
Ritter has a point.
Russian operations are going slowly. Slower than initially expected.
The US is escalating: gradually giving more advanced arms and training to Ukraine. Sure, much of those arms are destroyed before they reach the front and they have a tendency to break down. But there is no guarantee that Ukraine won’t find safer ways to transport weapons to the front – specially when the front moves west. And the fact that some Western arms don’t work very well doesn’t mean that that applies to all of them.
Never underestimate your enemy.
By whose expectation…..yours, Pentagon, CIA, Ritter’s, armchair bound basement warriors…please, produce the RF MOD timeline.
In detail….or maybe watch, and learn.
If any NATO soldiers move into battle formation to engage Russia they won’t have a home to return to. I take Putin at his word.
Cheers M
Winning sides don’t offer peace, they offer terms. A subtle but important difference.
To address your points, training for Ukraine is irrelevant at this point. Yes, you can train a foot-slogger in a few weeks if you train basic military operations and not fancy drill. Yes, you can train an artillery crew to fire a howitzer in a general direction in a few weeks, not for precise work though. It takes much longer to address combined arms operations using a mix of armour, infantry and artillery supported by air to attain a tactical victory and that training the Ukraine no longer has the time to undertake.
We haven’t even discussed logistics yet – hint – the Ukraine has lost most of its’ logistical capability. We also haven’t discussed strategy – of which the Ukraine has displayed … none .. unless it’s build static defenses and let Russian artillery kick the crap out of them.
In the meantime, inflation in Europe and North America is spiralling out of control, approximately 60% of the world countries and the bulk of world population has not endorsed sanctions, Russia in April had already met 50% of the total budgeted income due to petroleum product sales, and western weapons stocks are getting substantially depleted in a market where manufacturing components are difficult to locate and manufacturing logistic chains are at risk.
As Napoleon once observed, you should never interrupt your enemy when he’s in the process of making a mistake, and I don’t see Russia making a mistake. The longer the grind, the more desperate the USA and Europe will become.
I must sound an alarm: WE MUST AVOID BECOMING OUR OWN ECHO CHAMBER!!!
Scott Ritter is pushing us alternate news readers to see different points of view, and they are being academically debunked by other well qualified analysts. As it should be.
As far as I can tell, Ritter has not encouraged NATO to declare war on Russia, nor has he done any actions to substantially help one side or another. Ritter is not obligated to tow “our” party line. There is also zero evidence, so far, of Ritter defaming the Saker, Andrei Martyanov, or other alternate analysts in the same way NATO’s
thought policeMainstream Media slanders those that disagree with them. And I doubt Ritter will stoop so low as to engage in “doxxing” the way Mainstream Media does: https://meaww.com/libs-of-tik-tok-washington-post-taylor-lorenz-doxxing-accusationIf we, the true members of the free world, are going to win the spiritual war then we must keep a thick skin and allow people like Scott Ritter to express their views without screaming for his/her lynching.
Fully agreed. Scott is a very intelligent and knowledgeable man, he will not necessarily get it right every time but his view is still very valuable. Having a civil debate and not allowing people to fall into dogmatic tribalism is very important. Otherwise you just build your own empire of lies.
OK, he’s a good guy and has great knowledge . . . . for an American.
There, fixed it!
100% Agree !
Precisely correct and very well said. I would add only that there is no need whatever for any ‘echo chamber’ in opposition to the Empire of Lies. The realities will come to light without any such need and, in fact, they are already beginning to surface slowly and painfully in some rather surprising quarters.
I think Ritter did an excellent job annihilating his recent critics’ ‘arguments’ on his interview on the Billy Bob youtube channel, in “Scott Ritter discusses the responses he’s received from his recent analysis:” .
In general, people doing analysis don’t provide an extensive reference list, and the same is true for Ritter. However, some of his facts are commonly available from mainstream media (such as the huge increase in $$ being sent to Ukraine), and I’ve no reason to suspect he’s got any of his facts wrong.
Great Amarynth ! I was penning a letter in the same tone to post here, but you went faster and expressed everything in much better terms than I would do.
Ritter gave a (N x 360) + 180 turn, I would say. Because he stopped in the opposite position, but somehow he looks dizzy. His arguments – obfuscated by copious and unnecessary military jargon – are quite superficial and unrealistic.
I suppose he just got a phone call, a visit or, as Pattberg would say [1] :
“all he (they) had to do was go downstairs with them (he, Ritter) together in a room and mix them (he, Ritter) up…”
—–
[1] /the-menticide-manual-deceit/
P.S.: One of the best Menticide Manual episodes ever posted.
The thing about the MIC as with any industry you don’t want to have down time because ramping up again is very expensive. All the MIC cares about is pushing through the funding for war in one country or another because those funds don’t go to… say Ukraine, they go to the MIC. What happens next doesn’t matter, they get paid. Fortunately the “products” that the MIC makes tends to get blowed up so more orders pour in. Often this “product” is given to both sides of a conflict so its a double win for the MIC.
I hope everyone commenting here has seen the very long video of Scott Ritter being interviewed by Richard Medhurst, first livestreamed on 20th May I believe. There Ritter explains his position quite well. Now there is a very good possibility that he is completely wrong, and which is ok. His points are simple. Russia’s goals were
1) De-nazification – a lot of the Azov, Aidar, Svodoba, Right Sector, etc. are still there.
2) De-militarization – Ukraine seems to be “re-grouping” in the Western front.
I personally believe continuous noise from Ukraine that a counter offensive will come in August and the “deal” with the Poles today are quite significant events. Of course, there is very good chance that they will end in failure anyway – but let us not denigrate and joke about the enemy. Know your enemy.
In a previous post I debunked, from a purely logical standpoint, this “million man army” notion, to my own satisfaction at least. But one point is worth repeating: there has to be an assumption–fatally, in my view–that Russia knows nothing about anything until suddenly this MMA appears out of nowhere and starts attacking either Russians in Ukraine or Russians in Russia. This is the largest impossibility of several impossibilities. Any hint of such an MMA and it’s say hello to Mr. Zircon, at the very least.
Ritter can’t be unaware of this and his abrupt volte-face is puzzling to say the least.
I think you will find the European countries will be unable to field anything like a formidable response to Russia.
Who in Europe is willing to die in a Ukrainian field, for nothing.
The menfolk are feminised and unable to take being called nasty names.
The few thousand regular troops would not be happy with being sent eastwards to support a lost cause.
Talk is cheap.
Russia has already won.
Go east young man it is where the future lies now.
Once the winter arrives in Europe, people will have a whole new perspective on the situation.
As I see it Ritter is right. His point in his latest article on Unz.com is that the war is now between the US/NATO and Russia, and that neither side is ready to lose.
Here is my take, we are witnessing the runup to WW III, and it has striking similarities to the runup to WW II.
At the start of WW II Hitler had reasonable demands of Poland, and tried for a year to negotiate them. Finally he decided to take what he wanted. He had zero desire for a war with the west. His fatal mistake was that he did not understand that the ‘neocons’ control the west, and they wanted a war with Germany, which they got.
Putin a few months ago had reasonable demands of NATO and Ukraine, which he tried for years to negotiate. Failing that, finally he decided to take what he wanted. He had zero desire for a war with the west. His fatal mistake was that he did not understand that the ‘neocons’ control the west, and they wanted a war with Russia, which they got.
Now we have a war between Russia and the US/NATO, with the Ukraine military doing the fighting for the US/NATO. Both sides have stated unequivocally that they must and will win. The US congress/media is saying there is no ‘off ramp’ for Russia. If neither side is willing to take a loss, this thing has great potential for turning into WW III. In that case, both sides lose.
If you disagree, what do you see as the way out of this war?
Agreed on all parags; and I think this is SR’s main point.
The way out of the war is to publicize the illegal bioweapons rung round Russia and in China.
The biowarfare exposed, the lawfare exposed, and then a few choice suggestions from the East could be the offramp, and or divine intervention.
Pray to Fatima.and God
The quickest way to bring all this to a head and avoid WWIII is for Russia to pre-emptively drop NATO headquarters in Belgium to the ground. Do it on a Sunday morning around 4AM when even the cleaners will have gone home.
And then activate ALL the many and varied defense systems protecting the Russian homeland.
What’s the collective West going to do? Collectively very little, a bit like right now rhetoric notwithstanding.
Individually it could get interesting. Finland, for one could, could go back to being peaceful and neither threatening nor threatened. Eastern European countries could find a way to deal with Russia in roubles and get on with their lives.
France? Germany? And Turkey? Yes, and Turkey.
The U.S. of A.? They would, as they do, talk and squawk, but where in all this brouhaha and hullabaloo have they shown, really shown, that they give a shit?
“I’d like to plant some poplars in your garden.” I believe this was mentioned by Dimitry Rogozin as a comment to a NATO officer while walking near their headquarters in Belgium.
I find your comparison between Hitler and Putin offensive, just to be clear.
Your description of the build up to WWII is not accurate. Hitler was perfectly aware of who built him up and financed him. That he seems to have turned on some of his Elite backers was met with moderate resistance.
Stalin tried for years during the build up of the Reich to make an aliance with the West against the Reich, unsuccesfully. It was on this basis, knowing the war was coming, he made the ‘peace-deal’ with Hitler. The Anglo-Saxon plan was always for hitler to Rule Eurasia. And for Japan to rule East Asia.
Russia don’t need an off ramp, they are winning and the Empire is collapsing. The Empire on the other hand know that if they can not defeat Russia, it’s over. Their offramp is to accept defeat, and negotiate a place in the multi-polar world.
Among the usual suspects, to be rounded up trained and sent to front lines (like a few Ukrainian men in Europe, assorted mercenaries, few remaining neonazis, ISIS from Turkey and Syria, etc) there is one population that I think will be massively used: immigrants/refuges from Asia and Africa that came and are still coming to Europe in the last 10 years. These are men in their 20’s and 30’s that were supposed to replace vanishing European lower quality labor force, generate population growth, and even be trained for armed forces. I’ve seen them on the streets of Belgrade, some on the way to Germany, some staying. Many have mobile phones, reasonably dressed, have plastic cards to withdraw money from ATMs, and walk like they have already been at least once recruited.
Fortunately, RF has extensive experience with them, and I suspect it has already infiltrated these groups, so it would be timely alerted. The key problem with such a mixed assortment of troups is that they really are cannon fodder, with no common moral or spirit what they are fighting for.
Regards, Spiral
Thanks. Interessting. I registered that on quite a few of the body shots on Telegram, you could see that is was obviously not native Ukrainian fighters. Althoug some of the people being charcoaled, you could clearly see that it was African black / Middle-Easterns brown. I assumes some to be ISIS, and the Africans to be mercenaries … but there could be an ISIS-like connection with the Africans as well.
I think that Scott’s concerns about Russia’s pace of operation, and how it may negatively impact Russia’s SUPPOSED political goals vis-a-vis NATO expansion, are valid when viewed through HIS western strategic mind.
1. Russia has made it clear that the expansion of NATO to their borders was, is, and will continue to be a primary geopolitical existential threat, which must be confronted and pushed back by any means necessary.
2. In response to such statements by Russia, the west starts pouring in billions into ukraine in terms of weaponry, training and advisors, and also begins pushing the Scandinavian states to join NATO.
3. Scott’s western trained military mind sees all of this and thinks (speculation on my part), “Well, it looks like the U.S. has effectively blocked Russia from reaching one of their main geo-strategic goals”.
Scott’s logic in this matter, as he has been trained to see it (both professionally and culturally), is not wrong. Remember, the U.S. successfully won both the Afghanistan and Iraq wars in late 2003. In that moment of time the goals of the coalition were achieved in fantastical manner, and the west achieved global security and primacy for the rest of time, thus bringing history to an end.
THAT IS JUST THE WAY THE WESTERN MIND HAS BEEN CONDITIONED TO WORK.
Russia lays out a goal, the west does something which momentarily looks like it has negated Russia’s intentions, then everyone in the west pats themselves on the back, the credits roll and this week’s episode comes to an end.
What Scott, as well as other well intentioned western experts, seem to forget is what Sergey Lavrov said at the beginning of the SMO, when he was asked about the west acquiesceing to Russian security demands. He stated (paraphrase), “It may take 7 or 8 years, but they’ll eventually come to fully accept it”.
7-8 YEARS.
Not 3 months. Not a year. But a decade long sustained multifaceted campaign which will turn eastern and central Europe into a money/resource pit for the west, as well as a never ending refugee pump into western Europe, which will turn the chaos meter up to a 20 for the west. Add to that mix a severe shortage of commodities and resources for the west due to the sanctions regimes imposed.
That’s what Scott doesn’t see.
The SMO in Ukraine is in an of itself, one MASSIVE cauldron set up by Russia, which the collective west has run into head first, like the roadrunner painting a tunnel on the side of a mountain, then luring Wile-E-Coyote to run into it. And this cauldron is set to cook for years, if not decades.
The west wants to pump billions of dollars training and arming military units in Poland, just to watch both the material, as well as the fully trained operators get annihilated as soon as they reach their staging points in Ukraine? Fine by Russia. Best start the months long training and equipping process all over again, because this batch lasted about 3 days from the time they crossed the border into ukraine.
The west wants to steal $300 billion dollars in Russian reserves, in front of the entire world, so that everyone can see it? Fine by Russia, they now have the perfect excuse to ask for payments in Rubles, and not be labeled as economically untrustworthy.. “Look guys, it was never our intention to go against the signed contracts we had with the west, to accept payments in dollars and euros. But what are we supposed to do when they literally stole $300 billion of our money, which they had access to because of the terms of those contracts”. Thus cementing the Ruble as a permanent commodity backed international currency.
The west wants to drag Sweden and Finland into NATO. Fine by Russia. The bases of operations are already set up and running in the arctic, which will turn up the heat on the Scandinavian countries, thus draining more western resources into the frozen, useless north. In addition the entire world gets to witness 2 of the most prosperous and well to do nations in the world, descend into chaos and poverty all because they thought that they’d be better off joining NATO. Perfect examples of what joining a cursed organization like NATO can turn a country into.
That is what Scott’s western trained mind doesn’t see.
For Russia, the SMO may not be a quick run affair. It could be that the Russians have intentionally designed the game to be a slow, grueling affair, meant to shape the broader geopolitical goals, methodically and permanently.
Scott sees the reality on the ground in May 2022, as he was trained to see it. Not necessarily wrong in this moment in time, but also completely detached from any intentions or strategies set up by Russia in regards to the years and decades to come.
Just excellently expressed. Thank you!
A point that needs specific support, is your last one .. the one of detachment. I’ve said before – he does not see all the theaters. And that is why he needs to go and take advice from his peers.
I have a theory. This is shaping up as a war of attrition, an economic one that is. Russia is betting that the West’s economy will collapse before hers. Ritter viewed this as a dangerous game. The more the West teeters closer to the abyss, the greater the chance for it to unleash Armageddon on the whole world. Hence, he tried to put a sense of urgency to Russia to act more swiftly, to end this war quickly while the West still has some dignity left. But being a military man, nuance is not his forte, and he might have come off as being a flip-flopper.
You’re being most kind. I have listened to Mr Ritter on numerous sites and he was most consistent on the point that US-NATO’s proxy war was futile. That the reason for Russia’s slower (than his expectations ) progress was their reluctance to leave Ukraine without an armed force, minimise civilian casualties and keep vital public infrastructure intact. He stated consistently also that if needs be Russia could step up their SMO should US-NATO become more belligerent.
We’re talking here of a sudden epiphany based on ‘what ifs’ , possibilities and empty rhetoric for media consumption in the face of a heavy defeat; bravado, saving face.
Those kind of epiphanies only occur when you realise you married the wrong woman, but that’s a story for my subscription to Dear Dierdre’s Personal Page. You don’t drink guinness or whisky for 20 years then decide you’ve made a mistake.
I completely agree. Expertise in one area, more often than not, creates tunnel vision and blindness to other aspects of the thing.
Good writing.
I think in the beginning Russia hoped it will be all over in 2 weeks with a surrounded Kiev giving in. But well, if that does not work, they will use the other plan. And that is determined by the goals, not destroying everything means a slower progress. And as long as the western supplies do not prevent that, so what.
PS:
For you roadrunner comparison: It is Wile E. Coyote who paints the tunnel on the rock. And then is disregard of reality, the roadrunner runs though that virtual tunnel. And then when Wile is wondering what happens, a truck comes out and runs over him. Always sad to see that a engineering diploma is so disregarded in Hollywood.
Thank you for the correction on the road runner analogy. It actually makes the comparison more fitting.
Your thinking….based on what? I’m still trying to find the Russian timeline booklet memo, whatever they published, I missed it. This is a generational battle, the timeline has no end…..until all the Nazis, their ideology, their hanger ons, and goons, are dead. That’s the time line I got, from what Lavrov, Putin, and Shoigu have been saying, it has no end date….till they cry uncle, or Uncle gets on his knees and begs for peace.
Cheers M
The drama surrounding this really needs to stop. Reading Scott’s interview on Sputnik he really isnt asserting that these changes are going to stop Russia in Donbass or anything of that sort. What he’s saying is that this is a serious escalation and that it will prolong the conflict and result in more Russian losses. As a result, he opines that Russia needs to escalate too and deploy more troops to ensure that it retains control of the situation.
If he is being paid by some think-tank or wants to get into the good graces of Washington, then that’s a pretty crap way to try and go about it. His view is pretty measured and certainly doesn’t work as good propaganda.
In general I’ve seen the same view on multiple large Russian channels (Mikhail Onufrienko, Yuriy Podolyaka, Vladlen Tatarzky being the biggest). While I disagree with it given Ukraine’s demographic situation, it’s not unreasonable to express the concern that more Russian troops will die and fewer civilians will survive Kiev’s repressions on occupied territory as a result of what is politically an escalation.
There is no point in attacking Scott the way people have been lately, simply present the argument against his view.
Not paid, coerced. And that’s a misguided take, an escalation would only benefit the US. As soon as Russia starts deploying more troops, all the cracks appearing right now in the EU unity will disappear. Fear is too powerful of a motivator. The less Russia seems threatening, the more the EU distances itself from the US and the UK stances. This war will see its conclusion on the political front, not the military one.
“The less Russia seems threatening, the more the EU distances itself from the US and the UK stances. This war will see its conclusion on the political front, not the military one.”
Thanks. Good point. Didn’t think of that.
Hi Amarynth,
You’re right — the issue’s a hot potato.
I hesitate to comment but here goes, and I’m quite happy to be proven wrong.
I respect Ritter’s assessment of the SMO and like many I’m puzzled by his recent statements on the SMO. He has no doubt that Russia will prevail in ‘Phase 2’ but now he’s talking about Russia potentially not achieving its aims in the Ukraine. Nonetheless I get the impression that he’s actually looking at — and getting anxious in the process –, the possible end result, or lack of, of the SMO.
He’s correct when he says that Nato is providing a sort of strategic depth to the Ukraine, a place where it can train, equip and re-form its forces in Poland and Germany, in a ‘safe space’ out of RF’s reach as it were (politically speaking of course), and continue the fight in the Ukraine for a long time, to Russia’s detriment — re Raytheon Austin’s ‘bleed Russia’ statement, announcements about supply of anti-ship missiles, etc. As for the ‘million-man army’ Ritter actually said it in passing in an interview if memory serves me right.
In short, Ritter fears for Russia since he assesses that the game has changed with Russia not making — or appearing not to make — adjustments to the change; and without making those changes, eg increasing fighting strength, Russia will not lose, but it will not win; iow Russia will get a stalemate.
I guess an analyst such as Ritter would listen to the speeches coming out of the US (as well as Russia) and come to the conclusions that he has. The conclusions have military logic but to my mind they suffer from two weaknesses: One, Ritter does not know RF General Staff aims, and Two, he’s missed some of the points made by Andrei Martyanov and especially Larry Johnson regarding Nato supply of heavy weapons and intelligence.
Ritter has always talked sense and I hesitate to say that he’s now parroting Nato talking points or subtly introducing FUD to undermine support for Russia. My impression is, he’s actually sincerely anxious for Russia. I simply think that he’s made a wrong assessment on the ‘changed game’ — for all we know RF GS have already war-gamed the whole scenario and will of course act accordingly at the appropriate time — and that has coloured his statements. I think we should be generous to Ritter and give him the benefit of the doubt.
Maybe it would be appropriate to launch my comment also at the other sites (Johnson, Martyanov) you cite, but, anyway, here goes.
I suggest – I guess it might just be a tantalizing suggestion, so let’s see where this goes – that there is a dimension to the debate which has not been highlighted, as far as I have seen. Arguments similar to Ritter’s, with likewise similar or even worse conclusions, have been voiced by a former Russian general, who was even a former general staffer. (For my purposes, the specific content is irrelevant) Martyanov has covered this guy, I forget his name. The fascinating thing is that this former general staffer, who is convinced that Russia is geopolitically isolated and otherwise militarily not up to the tasks it has been set, was given air-time by Soloviev on Russia 1 TV. So the “medium” is at least as important, if not more important than the “message”. Soloviev is an outstanding example, perhaps The Outstanding Example of the technique of “don’t sell a party line, give the audience raw meat so they can practice their shark talents on it”. And the audience did rip this ex-general staffer to shreds. Then came a former Chinese ambassador to Ukraine, this time featured in China, who is also sure that Russia will lose. Is Scott Ritter rounding off the operation, which is “cognitive warfare” versus the west’s cheese-bell “psy-ops” and “info-ops”, a.k.a. products of “the empire of lies”? He is carried by RT and Sputnik. Are they spoofing their western audiences?
From the perspective of real-world operations, whereas Soloviev showcases a defeatist ex-general staffer to let his audience, “normal” people, not military professionals in Russia, tear him to shreds, via words out of the mouth of Ritter, RT and Sputnik mirror back to a western audience the inanities “NATO” planners ostensibly themselves believe, because they would not otherwise be doing what they are doing. So if these idiots believe what Ritter is saying via those channels, then these channels are delivering, in their eyes, not Russian propaganda, but truth. Ha! – A beautiful IQ test. Or, “Manual Item 2xv3b: How to make scrambled eggs out of western military brains.” Subchapter: “Cognitive warfare should be fun”.
I read a lot of Russian military stuff, but I have not seen anyone stooping to refute Ritter. Ritter has no influence on the “narrative” in Russia and even less influence on the military operation and the morale of Russian, DPR, LPR and Chechen troops.
That would leave it an open question, whether Ritter knowingly, consciously lends himself to this operation as a mirror caricature, a spoofer, or whether he really believes what he is saying. I don’t know the answer, but there were several elements of Ritter’s earlier analyses that might indicate that this supposed 180° turn was not really that radical… for him.
For one thing, if I recall correctly, Ritter did argue to counter the narrative that was circulating in US military circles (not only the TV generals) that the Russians had a problem with killed generals working at the front with their troops because they have no NCO corps. Ritter said, oh, no, having generals there at the front is a big morale booster. Well, that is quite close to “wokeism”, as if Russian generals develop a touchy-feely cult with their soldiers.
The Russian intervention in Syria demonstrated how and why it really works. Syrian and also Iranian fighters were highly motivated, ideologically, but they were commanded by officers who threw their forces into battles and expected and accepted relatively high losses. At some point, unpredictable as far as the point in time is concerned but quite certain nevertheless, morale goes down the drain and soon the military administrators can only recruit criminals… a system the Ukrainians practice. Soon after the initial Russian bombing operations against the oil convoys, Russian soldiers and officers and generals went into action. Very soon, and quite surprisingly for the Syrians and Iranians, the Russian commanders led forces into battle and causality rates dropped radically. Very radically. I monitored “social media” chatter at the time: “This is incredible! We go into a fight and we all get to go home for R&R in two weeks, we are all still alive!!” Russian combat-generals are morale boosters because of their skills! In the middle of it all, at some point, Putin said, “Our commanders are fathers and teachers.”
Ritter cannot talk about that and will not talk about it because it is not in line with American practice and training. To reduce losses among their own troops, they kill everything else in sight and demolish entire cities (Mosul, Raqqah). But from the outset, and this I do recall accurately, Ritter presented his analyses as if US-NATO forces were equivalent to Russian forces: Ukrainian battalions were trained by NATO, up to NATO standards, so you could, as Ritter suggested, plug western forces from NATO countries, e.g. the USA, into Ukraine and there would be no difference. And NATO standards were The Standard for Ritter, so these forces were facing off against equivalent Russian forces.
Now, technically, or technologically speaking, as Martyanov has laid out the weapon-systems buffet over a long time, there is no equivalence. But the issue goes deeper than technology: US forces were not trained and equipped to succeed in any war-mission long before they – or their Ukrainian proxies – faced off against Russia, the DPR, LPR and the Chechens. That means that, accepting Ritter’s invalid equivalence notion, Russia etc. are annihilating (that is a neutral military term) the US and NATO (because they are all trained to the same standard, whether they are German, French, British or anything else) and the US and EU-NATO military-industrial base has no way to close either the technology gap or the military-skills gap of the fighters. The US can spend all the money it wants and it will not be able to field anything that is not already failing, and, even worse, there is no way to repair the failed US military-command issue.
Like the Russian security-architecture proposals the Russians launched in mid-December, these are all things that could have been discussed and debated before any hostilities began, but, as Benjamin Franklin said, “Experience is a dear school, but fools will learn in no other”. This is a tremendous benefit for the US, because it is a systemic defeat of the established system, across the board. Smart people are still leaving the Pentagon because the system cannot be reformed. But the opening will be there for a complete overhaul when this is over. As for NATO, who cares?
There are other examples of issues on the same line, but I don’t want to make this too long. In any case, if Ritter still believes what he was saying before his supposed 180° turn, he is not among those who can overhaul the whole system.
Ritter failed to consider the collapsing food chain and collapsing economies of Europe without the cheap, readily available gas, as well as their Green suicide and the lock-downs imposed economic dysfunctionality. The US Stock Market is collapsing – it is an almost perfect 6 month lead indicator of the American economy. The FED is raising interest rates. People can’t buy homes, though baby formula is a better headline. So the economic war stimulus is a one shot deal. The Republicans will win, but they are mostly hawks too.
I agree. Biden / Kamala Harris will not survive. The downwards spiral for Europa is a much greater problem for Europeans than Ukraine
Thanks a lot for the overview!
Apropos focusing on the bigger picture: in HU there is a saying about salami tactics (which i believe also diffused to other languages too by now) which means allegorically to fragment the enemy into small fractions each fighting each other. The point here being, that the issue here is not about Russia vs 404, but more about the credibility of the Alt thinkers by the public. The race is for the ADHD of the public. The more chaotic, the merrier, as then there is no capacity left to translate analysis into action.
Many here won’t like this but I’ve been coming here for 8 years and I feel like I have a right to say how I feel about this article and the others related to this spat between Scott Ritter and Gonzalo Lira…
I thought (and still think) it was inappropriate of Lira to make his first attacks at Ritter. He should have called him up, emailed him, went to his house and cussed him out if he is that mad about it…but don’t bring it into the domain of journalistic content we are all here for. It just isn’t relevant to the war and it is schoolyard drama – not compelling content.
Is Lira asking us to turn our backs to Scott Ritter? I will not, as I haven’t seen any good reason to. People make mistakes and I don’t think Ritter was taking a jab at Lira anyway. I see commenters coming after him from all different arguments but it looks to me like everyone is excited over the war, the suspense is killing us all, and people are getting overzealous and attacking each other.
Gonzalo, Scott, Amarynth, Andrei M., and others who are caught up in this back and forth… please stop. I mean no disrespect but as the former editor of a magazine I’m just saying it’s a bad look for the blog and a bad look for the commentators.
Getting into the nitty gritty of these arguments may feel good as you are personally invested in the kerfuffle, but rest assured it isn’t a substitute for the good journalistic content that has drawn us all to this excellent site.
With Saker away and NightVision MIA (I hope he is safe and well), the blog needs all hands on deck to keep the tempo and content quality standards up. I hope my words are well received as they are certainly well intended. I greatly appreciate all the work the Saker staff does here and that is why I continue to read this blog on a daily basis.
I share your concerns. This blog feels like home, and I wish it all the best.
I personally think there is some truth to Ritter’s analysis. He is not doubting the ability of Russia to achieve its military objectives, including Odessa and Donbas. He stated that Russia will achieve those objectives. But the question he is asking is ‘what then?’
And that gives a few different scenarios. I won’t speculate with them all. But the best case scenario, one in which Ukraine surrenders, you will still have a nation full of angry militia type paramilitaries if they were not Nazi’s before they will be now. Who are flooded with small arms causing problems for the new Russian held/occupied/independent state for decades. And sure Russia can deal with them, but it means they were not exactly successful in either ‘de-nazification’ nor ‘de-militarization’. Ritter, from what I understand argues that to make sure they are successful they should push further and take Kyiv which will need a full mobilization.
The strange thing about Ritters “180” -in the interviews Ive watched – is that he simultaneoulsy denounces European armies as “a joke” . How can both things be true?. That British Polish and German armies are “a joke” , but that training Ukrainians there will be consequential. If NATO cant adequately equip Poland and Germany in decades of peace time, how can it replace an army thats being destroyed “on the fly” ?Im only speculating based on what everyone can know about Scott , of his career and his opinions , but Im sure he still has connections within the official US and perhaps elsewhere, and given the character of the western war on information, Scott is a “high value target” for them -.I suspect he was convinced of his recent opinions by people who have powerful motive to convince him of these thing; that motive being Scott is really one of the only westerners who has any credibility left, and since Russia has proved much less vulnerable to western misinformation than had been supposed by them, any chink in the armor is being probed.
Another thought is that Scott is bringing up a reasonable question: where will Russia establish the new frontier of hostile territory? We dont know. Scott doesn’t know
Your making a valid point, some commentators here are defending Ritter under the guise of free speech – guy has the right to an opinion – which is missing the point, because he has gone from giving a seemingly objective view, to basically propagandizing for NATO & that is what the critics of Ritter are taking issue with. I mean who cares what he says? I don’t. But within the context of the info war that is under way, & vicious in the extreme, it is quite clear that Ritter has been co-opted. He’s gone from a position that the Ukro army was facing an inevitable crushing defeat, based on a sound analysis of the facts – not biased pro-Russian opinion, but facts – to now claiming that Russia is going to face a bloodbath & not quite a defeat but not quite a victory either based on what? Based on NATO pouring weapons & funds into Ukraine. Is that a sound analysis? No it is not & we know why – I don’t need to explain, Martyanov & others have done so. But why is Ritter now arguing the NATO line that their support will make a difference? First of all, we always knew that Ukraine was & is getting massive support, & will continue to do so until the battle is won. Ritter is shilling for NATO. And that is the issue, because what he has done seems to be this, he initially provided a sound objective analysis, & even provided some very valid insight, he gained a massive amount of popularity & views, & it would seem – has now been approached by mainstream outlets & possibly others. Is money involved? I don’t know, but I very much suspect that it is. Has he been coerced, threatened? Maybe that too. I wouldn’t be surprised. But what he is doing is not good for anyone, it’s not good for Ukraine, because he is providing a very irresponsible assessment that they can do more damage to Russia that they can not do, & will not do.nm
Would someone who is “shilling for NATO” say that Russia is going out of its way to prevent civilian casualties? Would a NATO shill acknowledge that it is Ukraine that is committing war crimes by placing military equipment in civilian areas and using civilians as a human shield? Would a NATO shill admit that Ukrainian casualties are horrendous? Would a NATO shill lament out loud that we’re paying the salaries of the Azov and buying the weapons “used by the Nazi troops in Ukraine” and call them “murderers and thugs”? Would a NATO shill savage the US for giving away $40bn to the “most corrupt nation on earth”? He is, actually, going directly against all the western and NATO positions and talking points.
Even the idea that Ritter has made a 180 is absurd hyperbole. Seriously, I started to read these comments expecting some balance. But by and large, most people seem to have allowed themselves to believe that Ritter has made a 180 and is somehow now sold out and become a NATO shill. I have listened to his latest interviews and he has acknowledged that he thought the SMO operation would have already ended. If that was his opinion then that speaks of a lack of understanding rather than a 180 (Jacob Driezen has explained just how time consuming it is to drive out the enemy forces from every town and village).
The other thing he has shifted on is pointing out that there is now a protected rear in Poland that is acting for Ukraine as strategic depth. Pointing this out does not make a 180 because he has not changed his position that Russia will take all Ukraine’s coastline up to Transnistria. His comments on the $40bn do not imply a game changer either, as he is suggesting that much of it will be stolen anyway. Comparing it to the Russian defense budget is not, in my view, meant to imply that the $40bn ($53bn if you add the previous tranche) can build a military machine, so much as to emphasise the sheer size of it.
That is my view on it.
“His comments on the $40bn do not imply a game changer either,”
Then why did he say that it is a gamechanger – that is what he said, I’m not making that up, read the Sputnik interview with him. If you like the guy, then good for you – but what people are saying here who are on the critical of Ritter is based in the fact that yes, he did a 180. As for all that other nonsense about how he’s not shilling for NATO – he wasn’t from the beginning. But he is now – why? Because he is speaking in the NATO narrative, he is saying that NATO support, which is nothing knew, will give Ukraine now a better shot, not to win, but to do some damage. You may think this isn’t shilling, think what you want. I think it is shilling friend, & you are not telling me what to think.
The person you’re answering is probably a shill himself to be fair. This site being clearly pro-russian, it’s bound to be infested by what we humorously refer as “glowies” on the chans.
You can notice the pattern of a long serie of rhetorical questions in the introduction, that’s an argumentative technique meant to destabilize.
It’s a hilarious as repulsive to acknowledge a lot of shills use argumentative techniques straight up from abusive personalities playbook.
My friend, I am not telling you what to think, I am merely telling you what I think. However, I take your point that Ritter did indeed use the word “gamechanger”. I would certainly disagree with him on that, but is that a 180? I remain however, unconvinced he is a NATO shill, when everything he says is diametrically opposite to the NATO position, except for his use of the word “gamechanger”. It seems to me we are all too eager to fall into Bushes “you are with us or against us” rhetoric.
I suspect and have for some time that new frontier may have to be along the river Dnieper or even just beyond.
I just read Scott Ritter’s essay “Ukraine War Has No End in Sight” to understand what all the hullabaloo is about. I don’t find anything alarming about his analysis or opinion of the situation, nor am I willing to throw him under the bus as “compromised”. That is just silly.
People see things from different perspectives, and even experts can disagree about where current trends and circumstances are heading. And while I enjoy Lira’s posts, he is not a military expert.
The viewpoint I value the most comes from Col Douglas MacGregor. He said some weeks ago that nobody, not even the Generals on the ground, know exactly what is going on. It takes time, intel, analysis, and perspective, none of which is available day-to-day much less hour-to-hour to those of us sitting safely many miles away.
I think Ritter says valuable things in the essay, most of which I agree with. I don’t know, and probably neither does anybody else on this blog, if Russia has made serious miscalculations about Ukraine’s resolve and NATO’s response, but the best anybody can do is analyze what has happened and then infer temporary conclusions, always subject to modification based upon more intel inputs.
But I second Ritter’s observation that NATO/US will not and cannot stop. What should have been a “fait accompli” that the world had to accept, now looks to turn into a protracted, escalating conflict. Russia’s committed forces do seem inadequate to an expanded effort to neutralize all of Ukraine, and the limited SMO has taken too long and allowed NATO/US to rally to Ukraine’s defense.
If NATO can use Poland and Romania to build up and train new forces, what does it matter if it takes 1 yr, 2 yrs, or 5 yrs to do so? NATO will NEVER concede the entire of Ukraine to Russian control. They will prepare and attack when ready. Will Russia preemptively strike NATO training bases in NATO countries? If they do, the US will become fully involved, the US people will support the war, WW3 begins, and Missiles will fly.
God help us if that happens. A quick and decisive victory would have prevented such a scenario.
This EU forever punishing Russia scenario is a non-issue. If EU countries were truly democratic, voting citizens will weigh the pros and cons of the evil Russia narrative. They may balance reality at home vs. reality relative to Russia there.
Australia voters just did an about-face. May be not a big-deal, but it was in the right logical direction.
“But I second Ritter’s observation that NATO/US will not and cannot stop. What should have been a “fait accompli” that the world had to accept, now looks to turn into a protracted, escalating conflict.”
To some it would appear that you in furtherance of your interpretation of Mr. Ritters’ observations, interpret the content of the sentence above as being wholly disadvantageous, since you believe that you, and likely Mr. Ritter, understand the facilities of The Russian Federation and those of all of their potential opponents
“Russia’s committed forces do seem inadequate to an expanded effort to neutralize all of Ukraine, and the limited SMO has taken too long and allowed NATO/US to rally to Ukraine’s defense.”
Your notion of inadequacy is predicated upon your apparent belief that the purpose of The Russian Federation was/is restricted to efforts to neutralise all of Ukraine likely reflecting your “interpretation” of what representatives of The Russian Federation said/wrote and hence you “know their purposes and modes by which they are to be achieved”, in the illusion used in “courts of law” to ensure contempt of court from inception, that they tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
Thank you for your co-operation in illustrating a utility of sharing “intelligence” with others to afford them the opportunity to interpret it, although different methods are often used for those who think stolen apples taste sweeter thereby enhancing utilities – Curved balls being one example of many.
Hey Amarynth –
Thanks again for hosting a professional site for frank and hopefully objective discussions of a critical situation between the US/Nato and Russia. I’m glad to see that most posters are focusing on an open review of the facts as best known each day such as Thor Odinson’s excellent post and avoiding any personal comments on Scott Ritter.
Leaving SR’s statements on the $40B and a potential West Ukraine ground counter-offensive aside, IMHO he does signal a warning of a political attempt by US/Nato to escalate confrontation in southwestern Ukraine.
RF staff may have plans to conduct a new operation on taking the city/port of Odessa after the Donbass campaign is completed. Such action would make strategic sense by closing off the Black Sea and land-locking whatever a future Ukraine state may look like.
US/Nato political/military leadership is no match for RF but they are cunning and may plan a series of covert dirty tricks in the Odessa region as a diversion and potential blocking maneuver. One possible option would be a naval confrontation between US/UK warships and the RF Black Sea fleet.
Such action would also possibly try and force the hand of Erdogon’s control of the Turkish Straits on transit by Nato warships.
Thanks for all for the different though-provoking posts..
The USA will not stand down.
It will use every pressure trick in its arsenal, including blackmail of different kinds and at different levels, to get its way and eliminate Russia as a global competitor.
It has stated that this is its goal. Why is not to “get” here?
This is the backdrop to Ritter’s fears.
Accusing him of being a ‘shill” for stating the obvious, and the same of anyone who makes the same points of being another “shill,” suggests hysterical derangement.
I can imagine a scenario with a 1 mill Ukrainian army on Western side of a frontline, but they cannot do much, as that will too costly in loss of manpower.
With current Russian weaponry the kill zone (death zone) has been expanded to 100 km. No responsible NATO country can send own soldiers into kill zone.
“So, they want to devise peace now, and send Russia back to Russia. The news is that we are in a world-changing epoch, and Russia will not stop but take her full part in this world-changing epoch, preferably peacefully, but if not, military-technical.”
Exactly, the genie isn’t going back in the bottle, it’s out for good now. Eastern Ukraine will be fully liberated and at least fully independent if not part of RF. This is non negotiable, Minsk is dead as a doornail hammered deeply into the wood by Russian Military. The Western goons had 7 years to implement Minsk, they didn’t, their problem no longer Donbass or Russias problem. The clueless sputterers of the EU, NATO and the Davos set are just that, last gasps to remain relevant in their tiny 12% bubble of global population.
Scott Ritter is not the main chap here, but Putin. And, Putin doesn’t say much. When he says something, one should listen, best if in the original language. Translations doesn’t give the real (and hidden) meaning. Lira is lot of shout, maybe making some $s on the way, the monthly paycheck. Martyanov and Larry sort of match each other, but what they write is usually “from” what happened, nice to read, enjoyable, bit funny…and, that’s all. The only person, who gives (overall) info is Major General Igor Konashenkov, and that too, after few hours later, like 24 hours later. You can get certain hot news from Alexander Khodakovsky, the guy who organised the Ukie/Nazi “evacuation” of the Azovstal. Only, he doesn’t write much, as he is the commander of Vostok battalion of DPR.
Respectfully, there’s too much discussion of personalities and not enough analysis of How Does This War End?
I think Zelensky may not be able to negotiate at all. Notice how the situation has gone from practical ideas to crazy fantasies about Russia giving up everything before peace can be discussed.
At best, maybe an armistice/ceasefire can be accepted – but Ukraine still needs a bit more for commerce sake. The problem is that war can drag on low level for years, as with Donbass – and that’s a drain on Russia. Still, missiles can be lobbed in response to cease fire violations, so it may be metastable.
The US/UK will seek eternal war, EU will (and is) pushing for negotiation. OTOH, there may be political upheaval in US/UK. Biden will move towards investigation and impeachment and UK may depose Boris amidst economic decline.
I think grabbing Odessa is probably the best bargaining chip but can Russia hold it for any length of time if
there are no negotiations?
The biggest problem is demographics and nobody talks about that. Russia and Ukraine need young people and babies – or else. Child bearing raising folks are largely running away from Ukraine but that advantage won’t last forever.
By deduction…no amount of western support is going to make a success out of Zelensky. What success has he achieved for Ukrainians? He’s been an unmitigated disaster.
Pepe Escobar = Academic + Geopolitical
Scott Ritter = Military strategy tactical operational (US Style )
Andrei Martyanov = Geopolitical + Military strategy tactical operational ( Russia Insider/Access )
Gonzalo Lira = Blogger providing analysis of the SMO to the layman from the heart -neutral perspective
This is how I view the above where Martyanov is the most qualified by some way, followed by Pepe Escobar, with Gonzalo taking 3rd place from Scott Ritter after his meltdown.
Ritter may have been read the Julian Assange riot act from the US cabal.
All four of them are more or less guessing…and, writing their versions what might happen…and, a bit of philosophy. Martyanov, by the way, lives in Washington D.C.
Try twice a day, Mikhail Onufrienko, a former intelligence officer with a large net of informants in Ukraine (in Russian), Patrick Lancaster in DPR (in American English) You tube, Aleksander Chodakowski commander “Vostok” – person, who organised the Azovstal surrender (in Russian) Telegram, Sputnik News in Telegram (in English)…and so on.
I don’t think, Pepe Escobar, Scott Ritter or Gonzalo Lira speaks Russian.
Lira speaks neither Ukrainian nor Russian.
Martyanov obviously speaks Russian.
I think Ritter speaks Russian. He majored in Soviet history in college and worked with a Russian weapons inspection team within the USSR. He also attended high school in Kaiserslautern, so he may speak some German.
404 neither has manpower nor funds to recruit, train and deploy a million new soldiers. Only way it can achieve even a fraction of it is by allowing Polish volunteers to fight on its behalf. The clown has been hinting about such an arrangement.
The endorsement by Klaus Schwab points to the fact that it is all part of the WEFs “The Great Reset” (culling and resource grab). The arming and training of 404 Army and Bioweapons research are all related to the plans of the secretive masters of Schwab.
I agree, a debate between the parties is desirable, although I do not even know if Mr Ritter is even aware of the squabble.
I have read everything he has written about the SMO, watched all his recent interviews, even went as far as to check out his past appearances concerning his role as a nuke-disarmament and Iraqi WMD official. Downloaded his books, reading the scorpion now.
I simply do not see him making a 180. IMO, he is predicting the lengthening of the conflict, the escalation of casualties and the traps set upon that path.
I do not even understand Mr Lira`s sudden denunciation of him – and the ensuing storm in the…pot…
I am glad he got free, posting again, and seems to b out of harms way. I dunno much about him, that is not connected to the SMO.
I value all info I can get – and make up my mind as the story changes.
That is where I am.
As to where that is: I expect the west to fold, splinter through internal strife. At that point the SMO is over – as to what after?
Psshhh…how long ya got?
Look at it from the perspective of a Ukrainian man who has escaped Ukraine and gone to Poland. His two choices are to 1) join this mythical million-man Ukrainian army forming up in Poland or 2) get on a train to Germany, get an EU residence permit, and live a nice life in Germany with all the Ukrainian women who have fled to Germany.
It’s a no-brainer. The only reason most men join the Ukrainian army is that they’re forced to – they’re stopped at the border when they try to leave and are forced into the army.
Poland won’t be able to force Ukrainian men to join this army – they’ll leave Poland any way they can.
Scott is as far from a NATO cheerleader as there is. He’s simply raising caution, because he has experience of the US losing wars where they leave the enemy a safe space, where they can rebuild and rearm. Also, if this site and a couple of others are any indication, there is a triumphalist attitude of already having won a war that has not yet been won. That can be lethal, if it’s shared by Russian soldiers, or commanders.
It comes across that the opposition to Scott comes from resentment that he’s spoiling the party.
Don’t see this “180” that everyone is harping about. Ritter’s assessment of the SMO is largely unchanged. I don’t think there is anything shocking about suggesting that $56 billion dollars will make a difference on the battlefield. It won’t prevent Russia from successfully completing its objectives but it sure could complicate things. Has Ritter said anything beyond that?
“It won’t prevent Russia from successfully completing its objectives but it sure could complicate things. Has Ritter said anything beyond that?”
Yes. Not even a week ago, on May 19th, Mr. Ritter published an article for RT.com:
“With a $40 billion plan, the US is setting itself up for an expensive failure in Ukraine”
https://www.rt.com/news/555674-american-military-aid-trap/
He draws a parallel between the disastrous outcome in Afghanistan — an outcome in which large amounts of U.S. weapons were captured by the Taliban — and the current conflict in Ukraine. He states:
“. . . between 2005 and 2021, the Afghan military received more than $18 billion worth of weapons from the US ‘arsenal of democracy’; but when the Afghan government collapsed in August 2021, more than $7 billion worth of advanced US military equipment fell into the hands of the Taliban. . . . By supporting a Ukrainian military that has been thoroughly infiltrated by the odious ideology of neo-Nazism, the US is setting itself up for failure . . .”
I find it difficult to square these remarks with his other article, “Ukraine War Has No End in Sight,” which was published only a day before in Energy Intelligence. This article not only contradicts the RT article, it presents more than one dubious claim; for example:
“. . .Instead of a quick campaign of less than a month, Russia found itself in a drawn-out fight that required its military to alter its approach — pulling back from supporting attacks against Kyiv and Odessa in favor of a more singular focus on eastern Ukraine.”
https://www.energyintel.com/00000180-d669-d410-aba9-f66dbd120000
When did President Putin — or any high-ranking Russian official — ever claim that Operation Z would take less than a month? Why are we to assume that Russian troops pulled back from Kyiv because Russia had to “alter its approach”? Perhaps this was part of the plan to begin with.
Another dubious claim from the same article:
“Russia’s efforts to disrupt the injection of Nato-provided supplies and material have proven haphazard at best. While warehouses containing military equipment have been identified and destroyed, Ukrainian units equipped with the latest US and Nato weapons are still appearing on the front lines.”
Compare this to his remarks in his RT article. Advanced U.S. weapons were supplied to Afghanistan, and the end result was that these weapons fell into enemy hands.
I will add that NATO supplied Afghani troops with extensive training as well. In NATO’s own words:
“In January 2015, NATO launched the Resolute Support Mission (RSM) to train, advise and assist Afghan security forces and institutions to fight terrorism and secure their country. Following the completion of the withdrawal of all RSM forces in August 2021, the Mission was terminated in early September 2021.”
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_8189.htm
And this was only one part of NATO’s involvement in Afghanistan. Yet, consider the outcome — an outcome which Mr. Ritter himself acknowledges. In his RT article, he writes: “The obvious lack of contextual awareness which doomed the Afghanistan mission is very much an ongoing problem for the US when it comes to Ukraine . . . the Biden administration appears to be falling into the same trap as its predecessors who stoked the fires of US-supported conflict in South Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.”
Keep in mind that the RT article was published on May 19th; the article in Energy Intelligence was published on May 18th. I suspect that at least one editor has overstepped his bounds.
I agree with Alex. I don’t see a 180 turn either. Scott is concerned by the sending of advancwd computer guided weaponry connected to US/UK/NATO C3I and under direct US supervision to the Ukrainian battlefield. Hopefully the integration is not as good as claimed and the Russians military will learn to handle that, But the effect might be more trouble for the Russians. Trouble; that’s exactly what the White House wants.
Agree – It’s my impression that Ritter didn’t change his overall views only that Ritter now sees a multi-year war that NATO escalates.
Before Ritter believed the Allies (RF, DPR, LPR, etc) would sucessfully demilitarize Kiev in one campaign season. Now Ritters thinks demilitarization will take years,