It has been my recurrent effort on this blog to try to explain the likely reasons why Russia has not intervened so far in the war between Banderastan and Novorosiia. I notice that those who see signs of “betrayal” or “sellout” by Putin are long on accusations but very short on specifics. Unlike the excellent article which I recently posted as a “must read”, the folks who are busy accusing Putin of betrayal stop at the very short term: send guns, send men, impose a no-fly zone, strike this or that unit, etc. Fine. And then what? It is that “then what?” which our armchair patriots systematically shy away from. Besides “then what?” the other issue which these armchair strategists shy away from is “what if?”. What if the Bandera freaks really open up with everything they have, out of spite or out of retaliation, and what if they really flatten Kramatorsk, Slaviansk or an entire neighborhood of Donetsk? What if the dead at this point turn from tens or hundreds into the many thousands? Those who mistakenly believe that the junta forces have already used “massive artillery strikes” should look up the concept “огневой вал” which is often translated as “artillery barrage” which, while not incorrect, does not even begin to convey the meaning that it has in Russian military doctrine. Rather than to give figures, just take a look at these:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7Zslwq4dxk
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAtQq5tAxs0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIpW7BuaPZ4 (shows Ukrainian training)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6UNsqONPtGo (shows various systems)
My point is this: the Ukrainians have the systems needed to *really* flatten a town and they are trained to do so. So what if they do that? Then what?
Of course, Russia has the means to rapidly destroy the Ukrainian artillery units in the Donbass, but that would mark yet another escalation of the conflict. Then what?
Or what if the US orders Poroshenko to “request” the protection of NATO? And what if NATO does something really dumb like the initial deployment of the 82nd Airborne to Saudi Arabia as part of Desert Shield? Why do I call “Desert Shield” really dumb? Because unbeknown to the American public, the 82nd AB was put into a very dangerous situation: this light infantry force was deployed as a “tripwire” force meaning that if the Iraqis crossed into the KSA they would have to engage the 82nd and that meant attacking the USA. Brilliant? Hardly. The 82nd is a light infantry force which has zero change against the large Iraqi tank formations. The *hope* on the US side was that US airpower would be enough to stop the Iraqis. And it was just that – hope. Years later, I think it was Dick Cheney who was asked by a reporter what would have happened if US airpower would not have been enough to deter Saddam and if the 82nd had been butchered. You know what he replied? “We would have had no other option to to use our nuclear weapons”. So finally the truth came out: the White House was ready to take the risk sacrifice the 82nd AB and it was “hoping” that the US would not have to use nukes. I don’t know about you, but seeing Imperial leaders “hoping” not to use nukes really scares me.
So what if Obama (whose Administration must have an average IQ lower then George Bush Senior one’s by at least 20 points!) puts down a “tripwire” force along the Dniper and what if the Ukrainians organize combat operation or even military strikes from behind this tripwire force? Then what?
One more example? Sure!
It is not unreasonable to suspect that maybe 15%-20% of the folks living in the Donbass/Novorossia region are not pro-Russian at all and that they support the junta. This is a big area with, if I recall correctly, something in the range of 7 million people living in the Donetsk-Lugansk region, so even 10% of 7 million is still 700’000 people supporting Kiev. From these 700’000 let’s take on 10% capable of fighting (70’000) and let us assume that only 1/4 of them would be actually willing to seriously fight. That is still 17’500 men willing to fight in just two region of a much bigger south-eastern Ukraine. That is way more than the IRA ever had in its ranks. That is even more than Hezbollah has today!
Speaking of the IRA – remember how the Brits deployed in Northern Ireland to officially restore peace and security? (If not, see the “Operation Banner” entry on Wikipedia for a quick refresher). That also seemed like a no brainer at that time. It turned into a prolonged nightmare.
I could multiply such examples ad nauseam but you get my point: unlike some of our wannabe strategists, Putin and his Russian Security Council members have to consider the full-spectrum of possible “what ifs” and “then whats” before taking a decision to intervene. And I haste to add that a covert intervention is dangerous too: if, so far, Kiev has failed to capture a single Russian “agent” or “operator” this does not mean that this might not happen and that would be a political disaster for Russia. And if you think that the SBU could not catch itself in broad daylight you are right – except that in this case the Ukrainians would just be the arm of the US CIA/NSA who, you can be sure of that, are the one using all their formidable means to locate any Russian covert activity in the Ukraine.
I won’t even address the comments of some lunatics who are seriously suggesting that Russian should nuke London or any other such stupidities. I conclusion I will just say this: like it or not, there is a consensus in Russia right now that a direct intervention would be a huge mistake. As for covert aid, we can only speculate about it, but I do notice that the Novorossiia Defense Forces seem to regularly “find” “abandoned” weapons just of the type which they need most. As to those who constantly demand a Russian intervention in the Donbass I will say this: unless you can support your calls for intervention with all the appropriate “what ifs” and “then whats” – don’t bother posting them here as you are only making yourself look amateurish and irresponsible. If you are such a hero – grab a gun and go fight yourself, but don’t tell others when/how they should die.
The Saker
Dear Saker,
People don’t realize that any time there is a war, it is the civilians that suffer on both sides. And, it is the rich who make money on both sides.
Best regards,
Mohamed.
Out of Scope..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-04/france-responds-us-bnp-fine-will-train-hundreds-russian-seamen-operate-french-made-w
Wondering how much water it holds?
Biswajit
@Biswajit 14:28
Excellent article link you provided.
It’s not out scope, it further supports the argument against an overt Russian invasion of the anarchy formerly known as the Ukraine.
I’m laughing at the contradictions the article exposes about how these French ships will give Russia the ability to rapidly deploy forces to any of the Black Sea litoral states, esp George (land of the tie chewer).
The last sentence is so funny:
“Meanwhile it is none other than Putin to have the last laugh, again, and again.”
I highly recommend people read it. (to find the link go to Biswajit’s comment @14:28)
rt.com has a photo of Obama shaking hands with Poroshenko on an agreement to give military equipment to Kiev. I could only think of the good Pete Seeger, had to revisit this – I think it applies to your point, Saker, even though the Vietnam war was a different sort of Big Muddy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXnJVkEX8O4
Pete Seeger loved Stalin and also Obama.
ALL wars are total b*llshit for bankers and weapons merchants. The takeover of Russia by the bolsheviks was funded by bankers and millions of Russians, Ukrianians and others were murdered.
It is sickening what the US, EU, IMF, NWO, Soros et al are doing to the Ukraine and it’s people. They are doing the same thing to Syria, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia-Serbia, and the list goes on.
Many thanks to Russia, the Russian people and Putin for standing up to these NWO criminals.
Saker! I myself am against Russia being directly involved in the conflict. My guess is that the junta will collapse sooner or later mostly due to the catastrophic economy of the country that will accelerate by a continuing “low intensity” war in the East. I would not compare (with due respect) not for a second the fighting capabilities of the possible “pro-junta” civilians with that of Hizbollah! The closest I think is to compare Hizbollah with the Chechen fighters in my humble opinion.
It’s all nice and great what you wrote; Russia is trying to avoid a greater war, trying not to provoke NATO, etc….
I have only one question for you? Do you really think that there is not going to be an open confrontation between Russia and NATO within the next 2-3 years? In other words; while NATO has been desperately trying to start an open and unconditional war on Russia do you think Russia will have a single option except to defend itself?
Is it not better to defend itself in Donetsk and Lugansk then in Moscow?
It seems to me that Russians did not learn much from the wars in former Yugoslavia, during which Serbia as the strongest military power in the region was not getting involved in the conflict while Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia were being slaughter. Serbia wanted to avoid a confrontation with West. Yet, once the Serbian population in Croatia and Bosnia were decimated and expelled NATO turned to bombing Serbia sending it back to the middle age.
Lots of military analysts then said that it was just a probe, a NATO drill before the same tactic is deployed on destroying Russia.
In either case, good luck and God help to Russians in both Ukraine and Russia. They’ll need it a lot!
I agree. If Russia yields under pressure in Donbass today, the war will be in Russia tomorrow. Russia must stop NATO today, tomorrow it will be too late. NATO is hell bent on destroying Russia, simply because it needs access to untaped Russian natural ressources, while it also needs to deny Chinese the access to them and it needs to prevent Russia building itself up using the whealth acquired through the explotation of these ressources. As they say sometimes: “It is the evonomy stupid”. In the NWO, war is economy and economy is war…
You make some good points, Saker. And, as you say, you’ve made them before and they are worth repeating.
“I won’t even address the comments of some lunatics who are seriously suggesting that Russian should nuke London or any other such stupidities.”
I am puzzled why you keep letting those comments through.
“As to those who constantly demand a Russian intervention in the Donbass I will say this: unless you can support your calls for intervention with all the appropriate “what ifs” and “then whats” – don’t bother posting them here as you are only making yourself look amateurish and irresponsible”
Many of those commenters are obvious trolls trying to demolish Putin’s standing amongst western supporters. Classic hasbarats, imho.
It seems to me that Putin is standing by his promise to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers (and Orthodox Christians while I’m at it) and is doing so by not intervening because more lives would be lost than saved at this stage. his may well change of course but for now it holds true.
To support my view, I reference this short video of Putin a few years ago which demonstrates clearly his views on protecting civilian lives-
Measure your success by non-fired missiles
I thoroughly endorse Mohamed’s comment at 14:26
It has always been the psychopaths that wage war using the rest of humanity who actually pay for it all in every way.
It is my estimation that Putin knows exactly who the enemy is and does not want to do anything to help them destroy another human being let alone another country.
What the war nerd wrote is correct. Crimea was in Russia’a interest. East Ukraine does not carry the same weight. So that’s that. Saker may feel it’s not popular or politically correct to describe things as such but that’s why we read the war nerd.
For me, if Russia stops “losing” weapons in east Ukraine, that would be reprehensible.
I am not in favor of Russian infantry going into east Ukraine but they should provide arms and good as needed. The dirty work so to speak still has to be done by the separatists themselves. This Stalingrad of theirs as to come to pass in order for an identity to be formed. Are they willing to die and to kill for what they want? If not, they aren’t meeting Russia half the way. Why did the Crimea not have to face such trials? It’s their luck.
The militia commander should consolidate his forces rather than spread them thinly, move militia and their families where support is strong rather than complain that the Russian army is not coming. Think of Mao and the long match.
The faster he accepts the reality of what the war nerd wrote and not be resentment of it but be grateful for the arms, ammo and food, perhaps intel and advisors, the better he can organise his defences.
Not understand why the trainfull of tanks are able to get to east unstopped, and why NAF got blowup by mine. I thought they have plenty of miners.
Good post, I couldn’t agree more. Thankfully there are no armchair strategists in the Kremlin right now. Many of the planners in D.C. on the other hand are not only uneducated, ignorant prigs but outright lunatics who enjoy tinkering with the unthinkable, nuclear war. You were also right a couple of days ago when you predicted the U.S. government would praise the Banderoids for their “restraint”. It has just happened …
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VvfqclN-_KA
… a truly obscene statement from a Pentagon official, after the bloody massacres we have seen over the past couple of days.
Thanks for this Saker. I am getting sick of all the Putin bashing going on here.
In my view, there are only a few who have the right to ask Russia for help in this battle and it is those who are standing firm on the battle lines holding a rifle. Unless you are one of those few you have no right to ask someone else to go fight a battle. For those who keep saying Russia should go rescue them, pick up a rifle yourself and go fight or shut up.
@Lucky
Spot on – on everything, even on the US neocons wanting to attack Russia.
I think you’re quite right.
Russia isn’t Serbia though.
But, to be fair, I did say the same thing about Libya and Syria not being Serbia,both having massive military power, and was proven wrong on both accounts.
Well, all we have left now is hope.
I hope Russia prevails and wins this…or humanity is another step closer to its doom (and it will be a much quicker ride with Russia out of the opposition forces).
I keep hoping that Putin has an ace up his sleeve. Maybe it’s just my wishful thinking, and fear of the consequences what happens if “the Empire” wins…
Polish official callsRussia agressor at meeting with Obama. Here is some interesting stuff about Poland.
http://www.danzigfreestate.org/
See book: The Forced War; by Hoggan. Book is in some points outdated but is great source of knowledge ‘ cause was written by professor of history at Harvard during and after WW2. There is lotta thingx we do not know. BTW. After read first 100 pages I get clue that Katyn was revenge for Soviet-Polish war 1919-1921.
I agree with “lucky”. You can give a million reason why not, let them get you by your throat (That is what you are saying now). in reality, do they care what you think? Are you sure you will avoid the fate by cowed in a corner?
This is from 1853, Mikhail Pogodin:
https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/474177803399614464
It´s funny how things stay the same.
Saker shouldn’t be giving the neocons ideas. From what I understood, Washington had decided it could do nothing about the pro-Russians taking east Ukraine except make things difficult and do full spectrum sanctions if they can. We know they will go around Congress regarding military help but that will still have to be kept covert enough so Rand Paul can continue being the coward he is. What military help can Obama give without Congress?
The number of living Right Sector fighters is probably the most important factor in the equation now anyway. Only one month ago, there didn’t seem to be any Ukr men willing to fight at all. Why the sudden change? It’s the Maidan people that decided they couldn’t stand back in Kiev anymore. Now they are way out on a limb it seems. There aren’t any reserves except for 500 Right Sector in Odessa now.
Since the smarter neocons read Saker, you don’t want to be giving them the impression that going to war with Russia is expected as a response to Russia “invading”. I’ve assumed they want Russia to invade so they can help with a “resistance” while they do sanctions. Meanwhile, Saker didn’t specifically say whether a battery of old S-300s would be considered by NATO as too much evidence of Russian interference.
Saker, Cheney was possibly just continuing this doctrine, which created decades ago:
The madman theory was a primary characteristic of the foreign policy conducted by U.S. President Richard Nixon. His administration, the executive branch of the federal government of the United States from 1969 to 1974, attempted to make the leaders of other countries think Nixon was mad, and that his behavior was irrational and volatile. Fearing an unpredictable American response, leaders of hostile Communist Bloc nations would avoid provoking the United States.
Nixon explained the strategy to his White House Chief of Staff, H. R. Haldeman:
I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We’ll just slip the word to them that, “for God’s sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can’t restrain him when he’s angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button” and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.[1]
Putin is busy wooing European leaders this week, a potentially huge poke in the eye to the Obama Administration (see the link from Zerohedge above in the comments for one symptom of the widening rift between France and US).
I believe – I hope – that Putin is taking the long view and working to defeat US purposes through economic strategies; and that he will continue to refuse to be drawn into playing the game according to US rules.
You will have to keep on telling us this, Saker, because our emotions often run away with our minds.
I wonder what the ordinary Russians think, and what they think about the prevailing opinion of commentators here and on other blogs/ sites (mostly very anti NATO/ Kiev, en sometimes quite emotional for Russian intervention).
At the moment there is a lot of coverage about the 25th anniversary of Tienmen square. I looked a little further and even here dirty fingerprints of the NED are all over it:
http://www.activistpost.com/2014/03/the-history-and-science-of-color.html
http://www.activistpost.com/2014/03/color-revolutions-101-making-of.html
I think the Chinese reaction was crude and violent, but how many millions would have died in an uprising had it succeeded?
(since then the Chinese GDP has multiplied 5000%)
One more question: If Yanukovich would have cracked down the same way in maidan, let´s say in januari, would all this suffering have been avoided?
The Western elites are desperate to get Russian’s resources to curtail China’s rise.
Without Russia there is no Chinese economic miracle.
Getting Ukraine is a really nice part of containing Russia. However the big win is if Russia reacts and invades.
Then the US turns on the propaganda taps and tries to convince the world in a feat of intellecual Houdini that it Russia not them who are the evil psychopaths.
Then there can be a push for a world wide boycott on Russia and one on China too of if they do not stop accepting Russian goods.
Western populations are being fed so many psycological agents too through food supply:
Calcium proprianate, caused autism (social impairment in rats) prevents mould forming in hot dough in plastic bags. Speeding up manufacturing process.
It is hidden as fermented yeast and is in most bread up to one percent in weight and many other foodstuffs.
Glucose (Especially inverted) in everything.
These have been added in last few years to condiments.
Apartame is added to childrens vitamins and toothpaste and juices. Even advertisements target them.
Flouride is every where in childrens toothpaste as well despite Harvard saying it is a neurotoxin.
Alcohol is extraordinarily cheap.
So Russia is right. It needs to partially sit this one out. Defend its core interests.
Excellent summary. The ‘then what?’ response to the ‘send in the troops’ is never answered by the members of the 101st armchair warrior brigade.
I seem to remember someone asking [paraphrase] ‘if killing more innocent civilians is the only response to a regime killing its own civilians, then what on earth is the question?’
Obama’s speech in Poland was filled with very belligerent rhetoric including the statement that the Russian annexation of Crimea will not be accepted. While I agree with your points Saker, I believe the war has actually started already. Obama’s speech suggests that the US (with European cooperation/acquiescence) will do what ever they can to prop up the government in Kiev and, importantly, that the US at least is in no mood to accept that Crimea is lost. The next phase of the conflict is playing out in Europe as the US and its political allies try to enforce their will on a restive Europe. It is not clear to me that they will succeed in this effort, but failure, in the short term anyway, is not a given. Bribery, bullying, and financial blackmail are in play against a population and business community that is pretty clearly not on board – not to mention the propaganda war. The Russian withdrawal of troops seems to me to signify that Russia will use all the diplomatic means at its disposal to seek out allies for a push to get the junta to stand down – using the military provocations and civilian deaths as a weapon in this fight. No overt Russian military move of any kind – none. They also need support in Europe for keeping Crimea if they can get it and a military move of any kind would jeopardize that. JMO
the pessimist
Mr. Saker –
Thank you for this, particularly the account of Cheney being willing to use an atomic bomb(s) in Saudi Arabia. I was getting pretty tired of the comments saying “Putin should attack …”
QUESTION about the “found ” weapons – if the population in the east is perhaps 10% in favour of Kiev, then can you hazard a guess as to what percentage in the west and centre of Ukraine are opposed to the government?This looks like secret cooperation from elements in the Ukrainian military..
The US military aid is going to be bad news, because I think it will lead to roaming death squads, the “El Salvador Option.” What might delay this is the immense corruption and inefficiency in the country
And in conclusion – from the fast action by Putin in Shanghai, signing many agreements, I suspect that both the Russians and the Chinese are extremely worried about future possibilities. Granted, the basis for the various agreements was developed over many years, but this 2 day visit by Putin himself, and signing had an aura of urgency.
— Medea
and what if the US say’s: “fuck the ‘what if’s’, we are marching on moscow”?
The US will say: “F..k the what ifs, Poroshenko’s troops will be marching on Crimea”.
Then what is Putin going to do?
Keep in mind that for everyone else except Russians, Crimea is officially still Ukrainian territory…
This motivation is not really covering the entire perspective. Please answer these:
1. Why is Russia still selling gas to western Europe and especially to Ukraine, while being demonized and mocked by them ? Why is Russia so willing to please these western powers and beg from some scraps from their table and business ?
2. Why is Russia almost begging for Ukraine to pay and recently it’s willing to drop the price ?
3. While is Russia selling the gas in dollars to Europe (why not sell at least half of it in rubles, or euros) ? This is the canary in the coal mine, combined with the almost 500 billions of dollars that Russia holds as reserves.
4. Why is Russia not sending a clear signal to stop to all those rebels hoping in a miracle, but dying every day like flies for nothing ? Otherwise, help them with some real strategic information and weapons. Even Strelkov recognized yesterday they have close to no support and they suffer heavy losses.
5. Does Russia understand the principle of “DEATH BY A THOUSAND CUTS” ? Look what happened to Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libia who applied the same strategy as Putin is using now.
6. Can Russia understand and admit they were taken by surprise in Ukraine ? Can they admit another surprise move is on the making as long as the ones planning for it feel safe and sound far away from the zone of conflict ?
7. Most people were asking not for direct military intervention, but some dignity in the language protecting Lugansk and Donetsk.
8. Where are really living the kids of the most powerful russian leaders ? Are they by any chance in countries like US, UK or Holland ???
Some HEALTHY CRITICISM against what Putin, Lavrov & Medvedev are doing now can only help them if they have good patriotic intentions !!!
Your questions are the correct ones.
May I add another one: why is Putin imprisoning Russian nationalists which form the majority of the political prisoners in Russia?
Keep in mind that it is the very same Russian nationalists which have been used to topple USSR, betrayed an killed in Moscow in 1993 that are fighting the Ukrainian nationalists in Novorossia…
Who gets attacked by the Empire and why, in one graphic:
https://www.smartknowledgeu.com/images/WTOlarge.jpg
I totally agree, Saker. The last thing Mother needs to do at this point is openly get involved in the Donbas situation by sending the army in.
However, just as I have no doubts that Mi24 and SU 25 airframes with brand new Uke paint are arriving to replenish the Uke losses from EU, I also have no doubts that Father Frost and the Ice Princess do from time to time bring a sleigh full of early season gifts.
As for the keyboard commandos, I generally ignore them. If they had any stones they’d be in Donbas fighting. They ain’t so they don’t. Reality is if they saw what War is really like they’d run home to Mommy so fast they’d just be putting a foot down here and there to steer theyselves.
@Lucky
” Do you really think that there is not going to be an open confrontation between Russia and NATO within the next 2-3 years?”
Someone Said(A british BTW) on Cross Talk that there will be a war within next 18 months.
Biswajit
Saker, your article is very well-reasoned. But if US/NATO intend to ethnically cleanse Russians from East Ukraine and to turn all Ukraine into a US/NATO base, I don’t think Russia can just watch this and will need to intervene. Yarosh the Nazi will be a minister in the new US-controlled Ukr regime. Doesn’t that tell you that US is not acting rationally, but is trying to cleanse Russians? Russia cannot allow genocide in Donbass.
Your post coincidentally addresses my rhetorical question near the end of your last post: How about a suspended protectorate of the two regions (like a suspended sentence) ?
Your answer “What next ?” makes sense. Your anecdote about our ex-VP contemplating nukes to defend the 82nd shows what crazies we’re dealing with, anything could happen.
I guess the purpose of a suspended protectorate, if it had any merit, would be to intimidate Kiev sufficiently so it backed off bloodletting, without calling in Big Brother. It would have to be carefully framed: “solely for defensive purposes, no change in sovereignty, Ukrainian units permitted to withdraw with honor (as in Crimea), etc., etc., blah, blah, blah.” Since it would be suspended, if Kiev didn’t withdraw, or Big Brother threatened to send it troops, then it would remain suspended. Might be worth thinking about at least.
(PS: It’s interesting how prescient Orwell was regarding “Big Brother, Oceana, Airstrip-1”, etc. . It’s as if he foresaw the future, only 30 years early.)
Saker
It needed to be said.
I’ve noticed that in Russia and in Novorossiya the volume of the noise for intervention has risen. Even Strelkov seems to be joining in. Self-defense militia being outnumbered 10-1 and more, hard to blame the Novorossians.
Part of the zionazi strategy is undoubtedly to push public opinion to demand Russia intervenes, and thereby force the government’s hand.
This was done by the zionazis with the Pussy Riot provocations. They kept making them worse, trying to get a reaction. After the church provocation, when the government still didn’t do anything, the media raised such a stink, the government finally busted the zionazi turds.
The Poroshenko bum bandit is already screaming for weapons, and [G]ATO is already scheduled to be in the Ukraine in July for “games”. Given all the covert Israeli-American & [G]ATO subhuman slime operating in the Ukraine already, those “games” will be used to increase it exponentially, no doubt.
On the positive side, Bulgaria is standing their ground against zionazi threats over South Stream. Cz told the Americans they don’t need an increase in [G]ATO forces in their country. I also believe the self-defense forces managed to take over a border post on the Russian border, which should make it easier for volunteers to enter to help, and for more “found” weaponry to appear.
I remember old proverb: When mosquito lands on your balls, you might realize violence does not solve every problem. I hope Obmana heard of this one.
Churchill said(last century) : If a country has to chose between shame and war and chooses shame it will get shame and war.
We also should not forget the NSA’s very extensive data collection efforts – particularly over the past 5-6 years – as a factor here in the effort to control/blackmail both individuals and governments. This is the first phase – use ‘soft’ means and covert actions to force surrender while attempting to provoke a response from the enemy that will work to your advantage in this effort. In the mean time prepare for a hot war should that seem the only option or become an unplanned consequence of the ‘soft’ war.
the pessimist
Russia should strike covertly.Like in Crimea.
SLOVIANSK, June 04. /ITAR-TASS/. Ukrainian servicemen have shot and killed more than 25 people in the hospital of Krasny Liman, chairman of the Supreme Council of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic Denis Pushilin told ITAR-TASS by telephone. “According to preliminary information, more than 25 people have been killed but we fear the toll might be higher,” Pushilin said. “Shooting at the sick and wounded is not even genocide. The immoral actions by Kiev’s junta defy explanation.” He said the precise casualty toll from Sloviansk fighting was not available. “Figures differ greatly. We’ll know later,” Pushilin said.
Saker — Pardon the change of topic, but I’m pondering the Bergdahl trade. Do you think BO-USG released those 5 to be “relocated” to Syria or Ukraine or wherever “terrorists” come in handy for NWO? The whole thing is so contrived. What do you think? In terms of Bergdahl, I’m conflicted. The kid bugged-out during McCristals “hearts and minds” push in AFG. (AKA: “kill wogs and protect poppies” strategy) No wonder he wandered away. Surprises me that more didn’t go. Perhaps the difference is all-volunteer service with “all drugs all the time” policy filters-out conscience. What a mess. That said, he should not have been traded so dearly and with such fanfare. He walked away from his post. One would think his parents would have told him to stay out of the military. Anyway, am interested in your take — especially in terms of the “5-Guy Catch and Release” program.
Final question — when will Americans (especially parents) stop pushing/encouraging the military as a “career option”. At best the US military is full of idiots — at worst they are EVILs executioners. Either way its no place for those we love. Starve the beast. AGS
Hey Saker,
Obamawar meanwhile is working in the gym, here is a leaked video…just released and hot as bread!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R-jUyQUomB0
Regards
Mohamed,
I owe you a sincere thanks from the other day. I’m so glad you understand, and agree. And 39 years is pretty darned impressive! Congrats to both of you — given the difference in your cultures, it speaks quite highly of both of you — and of course is proof positive of the point we were both making. :~) I wouldn’t say we’re any greater than any other people though; we were an experiment, in being from different places, of different faiths, etc. and I think we’ve shown there can be a lot of (the good kind of) strength in that approach — primarily because of the rights we’re *still* trying to ensure for all Americans. But also all our differences make it easier for even quite sophisticated efforts to drive us apart, which is part — but only part — of what we’re seeing now.
juliana,
YES!!! That was the very first thing I thought when Saker mentioned failing forward.
sigh.
When will they ever learn…
james,
Measure your success by non-fired missiles indeed. The comparison between Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and any American president since Herbert Hoover, says everything that needs to be said, doesn’t it.
And the fact is, we in the West live under a de facto dictatorship — if anyone disagrees, please explain precisely what We The People could do, right now, to get our leaders to change course, oh, let’s say *just* on Ukraine and austerity.
In short, let’s be careful otherwise who is killing us will kill us more. Maybe we should also send a warning to local resistance fighters to don’t fight too much, otherwise the good people on the other side could get offended.
With all due respect, this is not an analysis, it’s a rant, and that’s all its value: next to zero, but maybe even less.
So, Russia not only must not intervene directly, but should also avoid any help whatsoever. My God, think if one of our Ivans fall in their hand, what’s going to happen?
On the other side, you have just short of thousands foreigners fighting in the open, the entire secret service is a branch of CIA, the “government” is chaired by the US Vice-president, the US is giving them full intelligence, communication, weapon and logistic support, after toppling directly the precedent legitimate government, but God forbid if Russia should be caught helping the resistance, isn’t it? And why? Inquiring minds wish to know.
What is going to happen? Will they accuse Russia of meddling? Will they start a demonizing campaign on the media brothels? Will they sanction her? In short, are they going to do exactly what they are already doing?
My gosh, that’s would really be terrible!
Those murderers have started very slowly, just fearing a Russian reaction, but they have grown ever more confident, escalating every day more in their shameful assassinations. You know, for thugs like those, the appetite comes with eating.
You are going to get a fully hostile “stan” or a Syria-light nightmare at your very border, in the heart of Russia, the Don basin, but let’s keep quiet, otherwise they will spank us. Let’s not bother our partners!
What if a very good missiles or air strikes destroy a good bunch of those thugs surrounding the main cities there and their deadly toys? What if that is followed by a simple announcement that whoever will attempt again at shelling civilian target will meet the same fate?
No intervention, no people on the ground, no occupation, just some more dead, but finally the RIGHT ONES.
What will they do? Will Nato get in? And on what basis? Unofficially? Well, I’ve got some news for you, non-armchair strategists: it’s already IN!
Will Cheeney send nukes? Come on, Dick, give it a try! What? Oh no, my dear, it’s not Saddam here, who had just his farts as WMD. Actually, these guys could turn you in ash, Dick. What? Yeah, Dick, don’t worry, take your time!
You have forgotten the only applicable example here: South Ossetia, 2008.
The situation now is a little more complicated, comparable as number of civil casualties by then, but strategically much more sensitive. Much more!
Would be interested in knowing why all the “what if” were not considered then.
Want to do nothing? Fine with me. After all, I’m not from Donbass, and not even Russian. I’m just heartbroken seeing innocents killed in such a barbaric way, disgusted with the wickedness and the hypocrisy and the injustice of all this.
I’m not going to go there with my gun, because it would be of no help at all! But believe me, if I did command the Russian army, those thugs around Donetsk, Slaviansk, Lugansk, would have been wiped out since the beginning of shelling the cities, again, without a single man on the ground.
And A FIG with your partners!
I agree.
Every point you mention is valid.
Besides, Putin has personally encouraged the Novorossia folks to stand their ground. He did tell that if civilians die Russia would act.
He encouraged them, and then he didn’t act, he left the Novorossia folks down.
outrageous that putin talks about the world no longer being ‘unipolar’ yet he lets the u.s. shoulder the whole burden of protecting the world.
u.s. and nato have placed bases not only in and around ‘atlantic’ countries but on russia’s borders as well, a security for which russia shows no gratitude.
isn’t it time russia did its part… how about securing the other side — the pacific ocean–the u.s. cant do it all alone
russia should initiate a ‘pacific russian treaty organization’ as a counterpart to nato — including north korea on one side and, on the other shore, nicaragua, salvador. ecuador, cuba. it would be the least russia could do to shoulder its burden of defense and it would give the us the same sense of security that we give russia…
Good analysis as usual. More will be revealed, but I have to agree that Russia may be forced to defend itself before too long. Obama is briefed by the CIA daily so he is very aware of what is going on–have no doubt about it. It appears that he is of the “later” and not “sooner” faction in dealing with Russia.
One must remember that Obama is the techno type who deals with flow charts and “red lines” but Putin is an artist dealing with the world zeitgeist and the unexpected; the highlights and the subtle shadings of a situation. Amidst all the gore, folks, sit back and watch the master. And pray for us all.
Unfortunately, people in general here in the US including sadly my friends don’t care about the Ukraine. It is not so much that they view slavs as untermenschen (this is an indulgence in victomology), they just do not care to understand or think about it. Extreme self centeredness it is and that kind of an attitude is dangerously close to a bizarre collective insanity. Save the Children!
Obama just upped the ante by giving night vision glasses (which are offensive weapons) and the latest body armor to the National Guard of Ukraine (Right Sector). Does Putin up the ante with S-300?
Russia has a specific weapon at its disposal, something that has proven to work again and again: winter.
Russia has at its disposal a great time-tested weapon: Winter.
I think that as long as things can hobble along until then without too much open warfare, options will be available and several scenarios can develop.
If not, then …
Seems you’ve been mentioned by Pepe Escobar on an RT op-ed. Congratulations!
http://rt.com/op-edge/163572-obama-foreign-policy-doctrine/
That’s not the first time Saker, your blog was specifically mentioned, on air, on a panel discussion show at the tail end of the SPIEF on RT.
I encourage people to refer to the Novorossia self defense forces as anti-fascist, anti-Kiev or anti-American, when generally commenting online. ‘Pro-Russian’ is being used as a racial epithet.
People’s army, people’s war!
Just the fact that the US is trying to bait Russia into a military intervention in Ukraine is ALMOST enough reason, on its own, to preclude that scenario and justify not intervening. I say almost because there must be some kind of red line involving civilian deaths in the east and the actions of the ukie gov/nazi military which would force their hand, and of course there are many other factors at play. But for one thing, you see how bad the western propaganda is NOW , could you even imagine what it would look like if Russia sent in it’s military? The information war is huge in this conflict, maybe more so than any other in history imo. Public opinion in the west might see a huge leap in the numbers of those advocating military conflict with Russia, a kind of rally-round-the-flag effect, and anyone sitting on the fence or slowly coming around to the reality of the situation would be lost. Not so now. The longer this drags on, the more people see how morally bankrupt the ukie gov is, how morally bankrupt their own Nazi-supporting gov is, and how wrong the official western msm narrative is. Of course I don’t want one single person to suffer another day under the Nazi junta, but I think the case has been made for non-intervention at this point, under the current conditions. For Russia to send in their military now WOULD see a much bigger body count of civilians, and risk triggering WWLAST. That right there is enough for me, but beyond that, it’s just a straight-up smart strategy using asymmetrical warfare, setting in concrete their economic future with China and the Eurasian Union, and letting the ukie gov hang itself with it’s own rope- all while denying the US/EU/NATO the pretext it needs for either really harmful economic sanctions and/or the war it so desperately seems to be attempting to trigger. So, IF Russian intervention, THEN very bad things happen, up to and including nuclear war. I say nyet to that, and while I hate to see the east of Ukraine suffer like this, it would most likely look relatively like a walk in the park compared to what could happen.
I dont agree with you at all on chance of a Nuclear conflict; the elite in the west are coddled cowards, they wont even risk a conventional war with Russia let alone a nuclear one: because theyll get badly defeated by the Russians, it’ll be a completely humiliating defeat for the West, they can’t afford that because it will set a precedent that not only can the west be beaten severely but they no longer have a technological edge This would shatter not only the myth of NATO’s strength (an alliance with no real strategic depth but logistically weak and thin). More importantly it will shatter the myth that Western weapons and air forces are impervious to crudely guided ‘soviete’ missiles. Of course, the opposite will be true, and when NATO air assests are subjected to an s-300/400 airdefense system, it’ll be turkey-shoot. Once these key myths are shattered, the illusion will be broken, and many more powers will openly defy western empire, no longer afraid of being overwhelmed by Western airpower.
That will lead to a domino effect of unpredictable conflicts imposed on the west.
So the west wont risk certain defeat against Russia, in Russia’s backyard.
No American chief of staff will tolerate putting his troupes into a battle-space that is totally stacked in favor of their enemy leading to certain defeat.
Anonymous 15:15
“The number of living Right Sector fighters is probably the most important factor in the equation now anyway. Only one month ago, there didn’t seem to be any Ukr men willing to fight at all. Why the sudden change? It’s the Maidan people that decided they couldn’t stand back in Kiev anymore. Now they are way out on a limb it seems. There aren’t any reserves except for 500 Right Sector in Odessa now.”
Perhaps because soldiers who refused to fight are being executed?
so Saker you think Russia should wait till, its completely surrounded before its too late?
Ukraine joins NATO and the US sets up even more missiles pointing at Russia and then what?lets face it folks a major war is due.The US Full spectrum dominance must come to fruition.
My family got back last night. Their flight was delayed for seven hours. Got a little feedback last night. I’ll try and list it point wise.
The Iraqi contribution to Syria in terms of fighting men is pretty high.
The Iraqis are firmly in control of the south, no question about it. They are well armed and equipped. Some of the hand held scanners they use are no larger than a mobile phone and are used to scan vehicles too, which my Brother-in-law(BIL) found strange.
In the holy cities of Karbala and Najaf, the local troops have a drill every morning. Part of this drill involves them either swearing allegiance to or declaring loyalty to Imam Hussain (as)
No electronic devise is allowed inside the harams (courtyards or precincts of the shrines)
There are five places where an individual is frisked.
Iranian influence is visible everywhere. The south of Iraq is now Iran’s backyard.
Samara is a Sunni City and has been for thousands of years. The Shia have no intention of acting against the Sunni at all. They feel repulsed by suggestions made by outsiders to “buy out” or “relocate” these inhabitants. A local Shia said are you crazy. These people have been here for thousands of years. We don’t want them to move.
There is more solidarity amongst the Shia and the Sunni in Iraq than is apparent to outsiders. This is a top to bottom phenomenon. The following illustrates this:
-Sistani was keen to emphasise, he was only meeting with the Shia, that the Sunnis were brethren. That there was no concept of division. This is similar to his public fatwa that the Shias should treat the Sunnis as their own souls. He speaks Persian in private-Zabun e Farsi balade, which is natural since he is Persian, but still further down a Hashemite and a quraish as his black turban signifies, a sayed.
-a Basra man was angry when he was asked his faith, he was a Shia. He told my BIL it don’t matter if you cross your hands or open them in Iraq while praying. He pointed toward the south, toward Saudi Arabia, and said the takfir is there.
Sistani looks better in person. He is meek, humble and polite. His hands are soft. People Visiting him are given a coin as a souvenir. He reiterated that Shias living abroad should avoid practices that antagonise other faiths, such as Cursing the Sahaba or slaughtering cows. The first part, cursing the Sahaba, he was opposed to even if it does not antagonise. That’s the impression my BIL got.
The entire area around Sistani’s house goes under lock down at night. He is guarded unlike any other leader. Allah protect him.
Khamenai also has a large following in Iraq.
The shrines are now impressive and work is still ongoing. The most beautiful from the inside is the Imam Ali mosque. The most revered is Imam Hussain (as). The population of the south is nearly entirely Shia.
The Iranians are given more respect than other outsiders. That was the general impression. Iran’s touman is widely accepted.
Saddam is not talked about. Everybody is glad he’s dead and that’s about it. It’s as if he never existed. Such things are referenced in the Quran. It talks of people/tribes such as these being mere sparks destined to die out.
There was a young man who was brought to the shrine of Hazarate Abbas (as). The haram of Hazrate Abbas is just opposite that of Imam Hussain. He was bidding Him farewell. His family was there with him. They were making him Zamin. Giving him into the care of Abbas ibn Ali before he left. He was on his way to Syria to protect the shrine of Abbas’s sister Zainab(sa). May Allah protect him and accept his sacrifice. May Allah reward him fid dunya wal Akhira.
Will post more later.
Mindfriedo
Wow! Min fadalak keep us posted! This stuff is fascinating and unreported.
Anonymous 17:21
I really wonder if *any* of our marvelous geopolitical strategists even know what you’re talking about!
How many people have to die between now and winter. Putin is pathetic, his people is dying every day, and he still supply free gas to the killer. You have to stand up to bullies or your will lose your lunch and get beat up every day.
Please learn to think with head not with knuckle!
If putin cuts off gas to kiev junta war-criminal scum, he also cuts off gas to donbass, donbass already low on supplies, now add electricity and cooking to their problems. Also, now bastard trouble makers in EU are forced to pay for Ukraine’s gas, so this is a important way for Russia to make Europe pay for Europe’s mistake and criminal act.
Anonymous said…
Polish official callsRussia agressor at meeting with Obama. Here is some interesting stuff about Poland.
———————————-
Dear Friend
and here more
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prometheism
“Poland’s strength and importance among the constituent parts of the Russian state embolden us to set ourselves the political goal of breaking up the Russian state into its main constituents and emancipating the countries that have been forcibly incorporated into that empire. We regard this not only as the fulfilment of our country’s cultural strivings for independent existence, but also as a guarantee of that existence, since a Russia divested of her conquests will be sufficiently weakened that she will cease to be a formidable and dangerous neighbor.
The people of Eastern Ukrain have already won this war.
Here are a couple of videos showing separatists finding ressources – weapons, medical supplies, etc – in the Ukrainian border post (h/t Colonel Cassad)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BPNyfruTJEw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW_Jmj2olv4
The second video shows a young woman, dressed in military fatigues, was present.
This shows the separatists do not have to rely on Russians in order to arm themselves and that a wide spectrum of society is active in the endeavors.
Последствия безобразий (The consequences of outrages)
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1616994.html (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1616994.html
Some excerpts.
“That’s not in vain Bolotov 2 day dealt with the main part of the border guards of Lugansk.
Beheaded http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1616700.html the structure and border guard cordon immediately began to crumble.
Ukrainian border Outpost in the village of Sverdlovsk (Lugansk, Ukraine) left the place of deployment and tries to relocate in Kharkiv, the correspondent of RIA Novosti. Currently, a column of more than 10 cars with Ukrainian border guards stopped in the village Samsonovka on the way to Lugansk. Border guards try to negotiate with the local militia, to accompany them in Kharkov. Last night militia stormed the Lugansk Department of state border service of Ukraine.
http://ria.ru/world/20140604/1010712401 .html#ixzz33givjpw7 – zinc
To understand their desire, somewhere in the way they can algardia to shoot or its own aviation bomb. A naive search of protection in the fire of civil war.
All employees of one of the Ukrainian frontier asked to move to the Russian Federation, said on Wednesday authorized under the President of Russia for children’s rights Pavel Astakhov, adding that the border guards are planning to move to Russia with their families.
“There is information that a border Outpost of Ukraine wants to leave, because border guards found out about the outrages that happening,” said Astakhov, quoted by RIA “Novosti”.
“We are ready to accept and border guards,” said the children’s Ombudsman.
http://vz.ru/news/2014/6/4/690021 .html – zinc
“Learned about the outrages” it greatly. In what pink world lived these characters?
Needless to say that now is on the border of Ukraine with Russia gape huge holes where the control over the border crossing is very conditional. It remains unclear, why was pulling up to the beginning of June, to make this very obvious campaign to opening of the border. Anyway plan Bolotova worked and now can be expected to increase the flow of volunteers and various pleasant things.
Fighting today clearly weaker yesterday. The junta probably overextended, so basically bombing and shooting, although still sustains losses.
Summary from Strelkova for today:
“Yesterday in the battle of Semenovka killed the commander of the battalion 95th airmobile brigade. “
“One helicopter had burned down, and the second lies on one side and never will fly, and the third (Mi-24), to be joined this morning, fell and burned in the area of Slavonic Resort.”
“I confirm down yesterday TWO su-25. One fell towards the Red Estuary, the second – to the North of Slavyansk saw ejected pilot).”
“Today the Semenovka strafed and bombed the whole day. Applied even howitzers caliber 240-mm Alternately hollowed that howitzer, the storm troopers. We have two wounded. Shoot ukry guns are really bad, but after yesterday’s storm troopers below 3 km not omitted and, accordingly, to get too will not can.”
If…
Maybe we need to lose our freedom and live ” happy”?
in the West standard mode? Zombify?
It makes no sense to approach the idea of war between West vs East.
This is war between the consciousness of freedom, the free will VS the Zombie spirit, this Ahrimanic culture brought since centuries.
I want to share with you my sadness about the 2 days events in Ukr and the comments from my Ukr “friends”, in Kiev and Kherson.
The worst, is not the West attitude.. Nothing good to except from them. There is more or less some demoniac spirit acting in leaders.
The worst… is what I have to hear here, in Ukr..
” It is necessary war, to clean East from separatist”.
I’m not talking about elite people. I’m talking about ordinary people, who think that the government action is based in ” no choice but to kill” and make a better world for all.
They are even not upset. not touched by Lugansk attacks.
They even don’t know what happened in fact.
My friends spoke to their parents still living in area Lugansk and still don’t know how the admin building was bombed. they think it is from separatists mistake.
After Odessa, after Mariupol, now Lugansk, and tomorrow? the reactions are more and more distant from reality, more and more controlled and disrespectful.
Yes, the worst, the shame, is not in West..
The worst, is here.. Kiev, Kherson, almost all the same reaction.
the compassion, the consciousness of other suffering is… absent.
I stopped to judge people since many years.
I was an observer of human nature.
I can’t anymore.
I can’t stay only a witness of this genocide.
This is not the war now between separatist and Ukr… or West VS East.
This is the little apocalypse, the war of all against all.
It seems our souls will soon need to choose our “mother land”…
Yes we all gonna be divided between Light and Darkness.
To each soul its’ own. I am impressed that you mention the influence of Ahriman, indeed it is as he’s already present among us in flesh.
How else to explain the strangled pregnant woman in Odessa’s syndicates’ house.
How to explain the murder of the wounded militants in the Krasnyi Liman’s hospital?
Or the cluster-bombing of Lugansk administration?
Darkness is spreading in the minds of the people.
If…
Maybe we need to lose our freedom and live ” happy”?
in the West standard mode? Zombify?
It makes no sense to approach the idea of war between West vs East.
This is war between the consciousness of freedom, the free will VS the Zombie spirit, this Ahrimanic culture brought since centuries.
I want to share with you my sadness about the 2 days events in Ukr and the comments from my Ukr “friends”, in Kiev and Kherson.
The worst, is not the West attitude.. Nothing good to except from them. There is more or less some demoniac spirit acting in leaders.
The worst… is what I have to hear here, in Ukr..
” It is necessary war, to clean East from separatist”.
I’m not talking about elite people. I’m talking about ordinary people, who think that the government action is based in ” no choice but to kill” and make a better world for all.
They are even not upset. not touched by Lugansk attacks.
They even don’t know what happened in fact.
My friends spoke to their parents still living in area Lugansk and still don’t know how the admin building was bombed. they think it is from separatists mistake.
After Odessa, after Mariupol, now Lugansk, and tomorrow? the reactions are more and more distant from reality, more and more controlled and disrespectful.
Yes, the worst, the shame, is not in West..
The worst, is here.. Kiev, Kherson, almost all the same reaction.
the compassion, the consciousness of other suffering is… absent.
I stopped to judge people since many years.
I was an observer of human nature.
I can’t anymore.
I can’t stay only a witness of this genocide.
This is not the war now between separatist and Ukr… or West VS East.
This is the little apocalypse, the war of all against all.
It seems our souls will soon need to choose our “mother land”…
The question of whether or not Russia intervenes militarily at this point is a rather moot one I think. I suspect Russia will be forced at some point down the line towards some form of intervention, how much of one will depend on the situation on the ground as I don’t think they will be left with much choice by the US/NATO/EU axis of evil. It will be either that or have them extend the chaos they have fomented in Ukraine right into Russia itself. This is how they operate. The fact of the matter is that the world is now in too much of a mess for it to ever recover. Quite apart from ever more frequent and more drastic upheavals in climate and weather patterns the earth is now experiencing due to global warming/climate change, and these natural catastrophes are only going to get worse with resultant food shortages due to spoilt crops resulting in famines, the western governments now appear to be united as one in being complete sociopaths and psychopaths in the control of multinationals and global banking who bring death and destruction to country after country in the name of “humanitarian intervention” and “democracy” and “freedom”, while opening up the resources of the destroyed countries to their multinationals and are now seemingly hell bent on plunging the globe into a nuclear conflagration just to prove their “exceptionalism”. Every where you look in Europe you see discontent and anger against government imposed “austerity” and in the rest of the world you see unspeakable atrocities being committed daily by terrorists, the “exceptionals” droning the hell out of wedding parties in Afghanistan, Pakistan,etc., moslim against Christian, alawite against sunni, the increasing rise of the far right across Europe, the disaster that is Fukushima still being underplayed, I could go on. The point is that at a time when humanity as a whole should be coming together as one in order to survive coming challenges we now have an America that is dangerously out of control and dragging its European sycophants along in its headlong rush towards disaster. We as a race are, if you will excuse my language, basically fucked.
@ Saker
> It has been my recurrent effort on this blog to try to explain the likely reasons why Russia has not intervened so far in the war between Banderastan and Novorosiia.
The key word is “likely” what many reader overlooked in their comments.
> Or what if the US orders Poroshenko to “request” the protection of NATO?
I heard Mr. Tarpley and others who claimed there is an international law which allows neighboring country to enter its adjacent country in case of ensuing dangerous chaos etc. Russia did not do it (but could).
Assuming as Mr. Fyodorov said that Ukraine is now already occupied by US through mercenaries (he told clearly – if Ukrainian Army did not intervene when the armed groups arrived to Ukraine it meant they agreed to the occupation by foreign forces, here the US military forces) so asking NATO to help the US Army would be legal.
In other words Russia must NOW take whole Ukraine in one hyper speedy sweeping operation facing US and NATO to status quo. They only answer could be nukes. So you think they are so trigger happy to use it for such a dead country as Ukraine?
Another point – very important – all underground units of ultra-nationalists are now mobilized as Right Sector and National Guard and exposed for easy destruction. This only chance one in 100 years(?) to quell them and annihilate them as fascists, nazis or nationalist butchers as will never again appear. Just as the American onslaught on Ukraine was their only chance 1 in a 1 000 000 to get the chance to build Great Ukraine. As military analyst you should know it.
> so far, Kiev has failed to capture a single Russian “agent” or “operator” this does not mean that this might not happen and that would be a political disaster
The Saker, for God’s sake, it is not about “political disaster”! It could be if you keep constant the beginning conditions of your analysis. It’s like playing to the rules of opponent, here Kiev’s rules! And that is what you assume in your “what if” musings.
> there is a consensus in Russia right now that a direct intervention would be a huge mistake
That’s visible like hell. But they do not say WHY. On the other hand your views are speculations only of probabilities of possibilities. I say, like Mr. Fyodorov, now Russians would have to fight American Army of Avatars (Mercenaries) to liberate Ukraine – not to invade or annexe it. Liberate is the correct word.
> If you are such a hero – grab a gun and go fight yourself, but don’t tell others when/how they should die.
That was unfair to your readers betraying your irritation. BTW. Is the American hubris so contagious (rumor has it you live in the US sunny peninsula)?
Regards
Crazy Ivan
@ Anon 04 June, 2014 16:38
> Russia should strike covertly.Like in Crimea.
Nope. In Crimea Russia stroke overtly. Her soldiers were visible by all in the world.
China state media calls for ‘severe punishment’ for Google, Apple, U.S. tech firms
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSL3N0OL0TT20140604?feedType=RSS&irpc=932
Here is an excellent interview of Dan Welsh
He goes into the history of US sponsored death squads.
He also says that the US will fail in Ukraine and that it knows this but is intent on “Plan B” now; causing as much destruction as it can with the time it has.
No doubt this will mean more roaming death squads for Ukraine and as another commenter has said the $1b pledged by Obomba will be paying for them.
Ha! Word verification is “Schism” and “abombr” I kid you not!
@ Anonymous 04 June, 2014 15:54
> This motivation is not really covering the entire perspective.
I will answer the questions on my own. I’m not The Saker’s alter ego.
> Please answer these:
> 1. Why is Russia still selling gas to western Europe and especially to Ukraine, while being demonized and mocked by them ? Why is Russia so willing to please these western powers and beg from some scraps from their table and business ?
Because Russia and Soviet Union were ___always___ reliable partners as oil and gas are concerned. In other trades (minus P300 to Iran) as well.
> 2. Why is Russia almost begging for Ukraine to pay and recently it’s willing to drop the price ?
Especially as she cancel dozens of mld $ debts of other countries in recent 10 years. Good question. I think she wants to coerce EU to pay for what they did to Ukraine and Russia. Those 3 mld $ is a petty sum but it’s good symbol of sane trade between the two partners – EU and Russia. Intentions counts in politics too.
> 3. While is Russia selling the gas in dollars to Europe (why not sell at least half of it in rubles, or euros) ? This is the canary in the coal mine, combined with the almost 500 billions of dollars that Russia holds as reserves.
Such was conditions of trade. Pacta non servanta.
> 4. Why is Russia not sending a clear signal to stop to all those rebels hoping in a miracle, but dying every day like flies for nothing ?
Executive aka demanding act require to have also executive branch – police or army. If you sent such signal and the aggressor showed you midle finger you would react accordingly. Meanwhile Russia has tied up hands. I do not know but there was few weeks ago a short (one week) when both Mr. Putin and Mr. Peskov vanished from media, only Mr. Peskov images were presented with his own comments. Did they visited Yamantau?
> Otherwise, help them with some real strategic information and weapons. Even Strelkov recognized yesterday they have close to no support and they suffer heavy losses.
Alas Strelkov is for lofty politician equally important as any Donbass citizen. They are priceless, as human being, but only on papers.
> 5. Does Russia understand the principle of “DEATH BY A THOUSAND CUTS” ? Look what happened to Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libia who applied the same strategy as Putin is using now.
See point 4.
> 6. Can Russia understand and admit they were taken by surprise in Ukraine ? Can they admit another surprise move is on the making as long as the ones planning for it feel safe and sound far away from the zone of conflict ?
Yes, they see it now. First euphoria from stopping US in Cimea has just vanished. See the politician faces of Messes Lavrov and Putin. Despondency and seriousness engraved like commandments in stone.
> 7. Most people were asking not for direct military intervention, but some dignity in the language protecting Lugansk and Donetsk.
For the last 20 years Russians tried to play to old international law rules, only to be deceived or fooled on every occasion. They were blind to the point that Mr. Paul Craig Roberts wondered why Russia and China are/were so stupid. Verbatim!
Today diplomatic language of the past is a subject of jokes on Western parlors.
> 8. Where are really living the kids of the most powerful russian leaders ? Are they by any chance in countries like US, UK or Holland ???
Very private question and a filthy trick of yours. You could ask the same question concerning all world elites’ children.
> Some HEALTHY CRITICISM against what Putin, Lavrov & Medvedev are doing now can only help them if they have good patriotic intentions !!!
Suffice to them to have patriotic associates and advisers. But here I see great question mark paying attention to the “fifth column” Mr. Fyodorov talked about in his famous interview.
Regards
Crazy Ivan
Oh what tangled webs we weave in the west.
You can catagorise US moves as ‘action in search of a strategy’.
The EU ‘leaders’ are caught between doing ‘everything the US wants them to do’ (and if they don’t they will get the boot) and their business communities (which if they don’t obey … they will get the boot). No wonder Merkal cries at times.
I am now 100% convinced that the reason the US pushed the Ukraine button when it did, was over the naval showdown over Syria. The crippling of the Russian Navy by them losing the Crimea then became a serious priority. Plus getting it’s ‘missile defence’ ships into the Black Sea in serious numbers for a major nuclear showdown.
Things are just going to simmer along for the next couple of months with the US pushing Kiev for greater and greater atrocities, the idea being to suck Russia in and then the US can, in the heat of the moment, force through total sanctions, etc.
As I have said said, from the neo-con point of view (and that is the only one in the US these days) the fact that it cripples the EU (even more) is a win-win for them.
So it is Russia’s interest not to fall into that trap.
But in the end they will have to do it, because the US will escalate more and more. I suspect the next move will be to use NATO troops to hammer eastern Ukraine (drawing on their extensive experience elsewhere at killings lots of civilians).
The ‘war games’ due in July will mean NATO troops in eastern Ukraine, a perfect time for a ‘request’, or a ‘false flag’ operation to justify using them for ‘peace’ and ‘democracy’ and ‘responsibility to protect’ and ‘anti terrorism’. That will get NATO troops into and fighting in the Ukraine… a total red line for Russia.
So, given that at some time Russia will have to make a move the key is for it to be on it’s own terms and at a time of its choosing.
It has to do things like get a significant number of European people on its side as a political counterweight. I note the changes in things like the Guardian’s comments. While the Guardian is (like the BBC) resolutely censoring and pushing anti-Russian propaganda, the comments are now almost universally anti-US.
Eventually at some time parts of the US/EU media will start to break.
This is important, because the public resistance to attacking Syria was an important (though only of of many) factor in it not happening.
Remembering John Boyd, conflict has 3 element: moral, mental and physical, of which the moral is the most important. There is little doubt that Russia can win the Mental and Physical conflict, but it has to win the Moral one first (ie setting the scene).
The Moral war it has to win is to split the UK/EU media, get UK/EU (and even US) public opinion on its side and split EU/UK business and political leaders (as well as solidify Chinese and BRIC, etc support).
One thing that has to happen is there has to be far more (and quite terrible) atrocities in eastern Ukraine. Right Sector beating babies to death on video and so on and get at least some western media to show it.
We can depend on the US to oblige on that part.
Cosh says:
Putin, that wily fox, will not accept the sacrifice gambit from his opponent. I think he remembers the dictum of General Kutusov, who defeated Napoleon’s invasion: Patience and Time.
Generals Patience and Time will hold the enemy off until the arrival of Field Marshal Winter. I wonder when the forces opposing Kiev will ‘find’ a stash of white winter wear?
I live in northern California. I wish I could be proud of my country, but alas, it cannot be as things are. I was able to convince my son to not join the military and he now thanks me for this.
The US does not have the money or the manufacturing capability to wage war against Russia without the nuclear option, which would be catastrophic beyond imagining. I wonder why China and Russia hesitate to dump the dollar. It would cause great financial problems here, but with the price of food already climbing to obscene heights it would be worth the inflated prices if it brought the US down a peg or two.
I don’t want hope to come into what I think, but if Putin is under greater pressure from within and from Novorussia to intervene militarily but knows better, now seems to be the time for a speech to all of us, Novorussians, Russians, world, eg at UN; not too allusive, gloves half on half off, and strictly with facts with a capital F – even, say, about 9-11. Might swing things diplomatically, anyway… media impact counts and the info war should be upped to new heights (there is nothing as sexy as truth).
Car bomb rocks central Prague, no casualty. The Russian-speaking driver escaped without injury…
Any color to add to this?
Speculation does have its uses in disinformation campaigns whether or not it reflects the real opinions of the speculators.
As the soldier rightly said it is wise not to give more details on this.
If however the speculators cannot act on their speculations, then it is usually best to leave them to their speculations, otherwise energy can be dissipated on speculation to the detriment of other potential action.
Wise strategies have others use their energies against themselves.
You are correct in inviting speculators to test their hypotheses/strategies by taking up arms, but you appear to undermine this by,
” unless you can support your calls for intervention with all the appropriate “what ifs” and “then whats” – don’t bother posting them here as you are only making yourself look amateurish and irresponsible.”
Why not be consistent and refuse to rise to the bait?
SITREPs by the rebel commander Igor Strelkov:
http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=130
http://sovietoutpost.revdisk.org/?p=132
There are Many People who think that the G 7 should be called the N 7 for the Nazi 7, because of recent Biased Actions for Wrongly Blaming Innocent Russia over what the N 7 Deliberately Engineered and are Guilty of regarding Ukraine.
From the beginning of the Donbass uprising I thought that the junta would be unable to retake one city. Even if they could clear a public building or two, they wouldn’t be able to hold onto it. I think last month Moscow began to act according to the same assumption.
Here we are two months later and the junta is still floundering around.
I disagree.
In all complex situations you can find pros and cons in their hundred, listing all pros and dismissing all cons as a folly from mavericks who talk of nuking here and there is not correct. Let’s reverse the process: “What if” Poroshenko calls NATO in anyway? Warmongers in Washington and elsewhere believe there are already more than enough reasons for “fraternal help”. And “What if” the thinned rebel resistance collapses and a massacre follows? How will Putin stand such a disaster in the face of his people and all other free men in the world? “What if” the Ukris bring the rebels to their knees someway and then call for help to retake Crimea? This last is more than a possibility, is a certainty. In my opinion Maedhros is right: a good airstrike at the guns would terrify the Ukris without committing land forces. But basically the problem is: responsability and moderation work only when they are shared; since the beginning the US government just kept escalating, and if they do mean trouble, they will have it anyway, especially if they are mad as you suspect. Maybe a hard stance is the only way to keep them at bay, this time there are nukes on both sides… Rockerduck
I believe some of the commentators advocating Russian intervention are working for the other side. The neocons have been dreaming of a Russian invasion of Ukraine for a long time. The Russians are prepared, Example Crimea.
I have no military training but it seems clear that you should not do what your opponent wants you to do.
Your last sentence: Well said!!!