On at least three occasions I tried to dispel the notion that the US/NATO could attack Russia or Russian forces in the Ukraine (see here, here and here). I tried to show that geography, over-reach and politics made a conventional attack impossible and I tried to show that a nuclear attack, whether tactical or strategic, could not succeed. There is a new theory which is apparently going around now which goes something like this: the Ukraine will re-arm and re-organize with the technical and financial help of the AngloZionist Empire, and then it will attack Crimea, possibly with the support of NATO airpower. Sounds scary, but the good news is that it is just as implausible as the other theories. Today, I want to explain why.
First and foremost, from a military point of view there can be no such thing as an “attack in Crimea” separate form a full-scale attack on Russia itself. Crimea is not a distant island in the middle of nowhere (like the Malvinas) and it will soon be fully integrated into the Russian defense system. Second, being a peninsula, Crimea is extremely hard to attack as the British and the Germans have found out. So no matter how you try to package it, from a purely military point of view, to have any chance of success an attack on Crimea would have to include a full scale attack on Russia.
And let me immediately put to rest the argument about NATO airpower: not only did it miserably fail in Bosnia, it did not even have what it takes to attack Syria, nevermind Iran. The USAF is flying either very good old aircraft or very bad modern aircraft whose attrition rate trying to deal with both the Russian Air Force and the Russian Air Defense Network, especially around Crimea, would be huge. Bombing an almost defenseless Serbia for 78 days (for pathetic results!) is one thing, trying to bomb Crimea and Russia proper is harder by several orders of magnitude. As for US/NATO ground forces, they would have a hard time even getting anywhere near Crimea. Which leaves the US Navy.
Unlike the US Army and Air Force, the USN is in much better shape and far more powerful than the Russian Navy. But to meaningfully participate in an attack on Crimea it would have to act from the eastern Mediterranean as entering the Black Sea would be not only suicidal, but even impossible for US Aircraft Carriers (not to mention completely contrary to US Naval doctrine). In reality, the USN could inflict far more devastating attacks on Russia in the Pacific, the Kola Peninsula or even the Baltic Sea than in southern Russia.
Which leave a hypothetical “future Ukrainian military” (the current one is unable to take Slaviansk or Kramatorsk, and could not even hold on to Krasnyi Liman). We can hypothesize all we want about how motivated this future Ukrainian military would be, but I personally cannot imagine what would motivate a future Ukrainian soldier to go and fight Russia, even for Crimea. But even if we assume a tremendous motivation, the fact is that the most the Ukraine can hope for in the next 1-10 years is to put a lot of men under arms and use outdated military hardware augmented with modern electronics, communication gear, targeting systems, command and control networks, etc. But even this relatively modernized Ukrainian military would face the very same problem which defeated the Swedes, the Crusaders, Napoleon and Hitler: no, not the “General Winter” canard, but Russia’s strategic depth. Let me give just one example.
One of the most formidable weapons in the Russian military arsenal is the new Su-34 figher-bomber whose combat radius is estimated at over 1’000km but who already flew 6’000km with 2 mid-air refuellings. In a combat mission, such Su-34s could be protected by advanced Su-35S’ who have a very similar combat range. In practical terms, this means that the Russian Air Force could strike Ukrainian units practically from anywhere west of the Urals. And did I mention that Russia has 28 AWACs while the Ukraine has none? This is just one small example, but it illustrates the different kind of importance strategic depth can in modern warfare.
I could go on for hours giving further examples, but I think that the point is clear: the Ukrainian military, even with the benefit of western financial and technical aid, and even with motivated soldiers, simply has no chance at all to re-take Crimea, nevermind prevail in a conflict against Russia.
So the only real risk is that the AngloZionists would order their Gauleiter in Kiev (whether Poroshenko or any other) to provoke a conflict with Russia not with the aim to prevail, but with the aim to create a crisis and force Russia to use her military power. Alas, the Ukraine will always have enough military power to attack Crimea and get many people killed. The attack will fail, but a crisis will be triggered.
Whatever may be the case, the Russian military has already announced a major effort to strengthen the defenses of the Crimean Peninsula and the Black Sea (including new bombers, submarines, air defense systems, naval infantry, etc.). In fact, all the signs are that Russia will make the Crimean Peninsula the key node of her entire southwestern defense posture.
I sincerely believe that while such theories make for good headlines, an attack by anybody on Russia is extremely unlikely and that it is unhelpful to spend too much time on such far-fetched possibilities. Senseless terrorist attacks and the subversion of the Crimean Tatars minority are far more likely threats than a conventional military attack.
The Saker
Saker Message:
Well, that was fast. According to his American student and friend Mark Sleboda Dugin has NOT been fired from his job at the Moscow State University, though the contradiction leaves ambiguous whether Dugin’s contract was cut short to 2015 from 2019 rather than him being ‘fired’ immediately.
https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/482924621789134848
On the point of Glazyev’s warning that Kiev was refitting and rearming old tanks and armored vehicles in Kharkov, it occurred to me that such plants could have accidents. Big messy ones that could stop production for weeks to months. If Kiev realizes even its much vaunted rear is not entirely safe from NAF attack with quasi-plausible deniability, that will go a big way toward forcing them to sue for peace, even more so than continued high casualties for its troops in Novorossiya’s territory.
Yes, the same way as a naked ass can attack a hot stove!
One more thing: Russia will never have to build its defenses in the Crimea itself. Why? Simply because very soon, within 6 months, Odessa Region, Mykolaiv Region, Kershon Region, Zaporozhye Region, Donetsk Region and Lugansk Region will be all parts of Novorossiya, so teh defense will have to be built in these Regions.
No chance in hell does he want to attack Russia but Poroshenko as you stated wants aggravate Russia enough for them to attack Ukraine.
Russia can tank to Kiev within days. The most important thing to retake Crimea is ground force. You can’t take/annex an area with just navy or air power. Ukraine is on Russia’s doorstep.
Poroshenko latest speech in Strasbourg (June 27) he has repeated his false claim that Russia is an aggressor and that the Russian people hate Ukrainians. Also on the same day another shelling of Russian border guards and local area occurred though this time no one was hurt. Once is an accident. Twice, no way.
To this objective observer, the Kiev regime’s aggressive anti-Russia posturing seems absurdly counter-productive, if not insane. Russia, through the gas alone, had been effectively subsidizing Ukraine to the tune of billions per year, and refrained from over-reaction when the American NGOs began their colour revolution campaigns. Where is the Ukraine getting their gas this winter? How does the percentage of GDP generated by Russian trade get replaced? And, to the point, how will the Kiev regime sell a rearmament and militarization drive in the midst of what will be a brutal austerity program? I certainly don’t expect the Right Sector gang to exhibit keen critical thinking, but where are the adults here and why are they sitting this out?
I believe the shelling of the border by Ukraine is an attempt to draw Russia militarily into a conflict. However, while Russia could technically launch an attack on Ukraine for the shellings, they haven’t. However, they haven’t even though they would have the moral high ground if they chose to do so. The people of the west, especially Americans are very skeptical of Vladimir Putin and the Russian government and any military reaction would be defined as “Russian aggression,” even though that’s completely nonsensical. Meanwhile the Ukrainian regime could literally round up the people of Novorossiya, put them in freight cars, and send them to death camps and we wouldn’t get a peep from the west. Seeing as they have a Lebensraum plan with “filtration camps,” that theory isn’t too far fetched. It’s quite obvious when a State Department spokesperson, who happens to be dumber than Jen Psaki announces in a press conference that over 100,00 refugees along with over 50,000 internally displaced people due to the fighting in Ukraine don’t exist, even though those are the UN’s own numbers. Anyways, ramble over.
Could this be Russia’s intent: an international (or European) peace conference to settle the model of a future security partnership, bolstered by a Russo-German alliance, to be forged in the buffer state of Ukraine? On Friday, Merkel was reported to state that ‘not all EU members signed the association agreement’ and that it may be delayed until autumn after consultations with Russia. The Peace of Ukraine.
The Russians would demolish Israel-America’s proxie banderite forces in a few hours, as they did the forces of Israeli-America’s necktie gourmand in Georgia.
Agree, the real threat to Russia is Israeli-American terrorism and subversion attempts. Also, terrorism and subversion of Russia’s allies and partners.
The captcha filter is really acting up. It was failing my post even though I wrote the captcha characters exactly. This happened several times before my last post was allowed to go through.
Has anybody else had a similar problem?
Hypothetical:
1) Massive NATO wargames scheduled in Ukraine in July/August;
2) Nuland again hooks up with 5,000 Tartar terrorists, creates “false flag” event in Crimea similar to the Odessa massacre but more deadly;
3) NATO uses this as an excuse to “liberate” Crimea, eastern Ukraine, starts major hot war with Russia. This all happens conveniently while the Congresscritters are on vacation.
You are assuming in this game of Chicken that the other party is going to swerve aside, simply because it would be suicidal not to. This is a strategic error (e.g., 9/11). America is already committing suicide in slow motion by losing the petro-dollar. Vickie Nuland, Hunter Biden, Devon Archer, Stephen Kappes, and Diamondback Tactical have nothing to lose personally if WWIII starts and millions of people get killed. So, there is no serious reason to stop. The floggings will continue until morale improves.
@ grieved
If I’d be good at predicting things, I’d be sipping a cool cocktail drink on a yacht in the Maldives. Nevertheless, I’ll give it a try.
Nobody will attack Russia [except for some disgruntled groups that will try to inflict damage by terrorizing ordinary Russians].
West Ukraine will keep attacking East Ukraine until they realize that it’s a runaway kid that categorically refuses to be dragged home. They may be after the mines and the ‘industrial complex,’ but going back and forth to work heavily armed, well, that makes you almost a west bank settler, but these ‘Caucus Palestinians’ have all the means to fight back and inflict horrendous losses and that will [in the end] deter the re-annexation of these two Republics.
Over time the 2 Republics will unite and over more time absorbed into Russia proper.
Russia/Putin will have won, without a [real] fight.
Game, set, match.
One word: brilliant.
Just being big in size does not matter-That attitude made made it possible the attack by Napoleon And Hitler -all planned by the Anglo pirates.
Leadership and own defense requires attack to take to enemy-in case of Russia it requires taking war to englad and destroying that parste abomination..
Russia is doing nothing. It is not even helping scots to separate from England which would greatly weaken English ability to do mischief on north Sea.
English want Iraq divided into two then why not UK?
Russia must dovtobdestabilise her main enemies like england and her agents.
@ BOT TAK,
Q: Has anybody else had a similar problem?
R: Yup. Most of the time it’s because someone has farted those 2 words onto a piece of paper and each letter could be anything you see in it [numbers are occasionally a haphazard endeavor, but so far so good].
Saker,
I seem to recall you giving all these same impregnable defenses of Russia as the reason NATO would never wrest Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit. Yet NATO has effectively wrested Ukraine out of Russia’s orbit, just like they’ve steadily done to nearly all the states of the former USSR, and without so much as a combat platoon lost. The fact is NATO/America runs and dominates the post soviet space all the way to Ukraine, right there on Russia’s doorstep, they murder and desolate Russia’s proxies right there in Russia’s neighborhood without the Russian war machine doing much to deter further aggression. How can you be so certain in your assumptions after all that has transpired. Isn’t conquest by unconventional warfare just as much a potent threat as conventional war? North Korea is nuclear armed and has a formidable military machine, yet they are besieged and powerless in the face of American aggressive isolation. The same is happening in Syria and Iran. The myth that the NATO mafia only attacks powerless states has been proven to be just that, myth. Like the British guns at Singapore, Russia’s great defenses might be circumvented entirely and rendered impotent in the face of modern asymmetric warfare. Your faith is certainly stronger than mine
Merkel stating the EU association agreement is not effective immediately, need to negotiate w Putin . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Yyj94TGOxE
Although this isn’t completely in keeping with this post, it speaks to the core issues.
An article about Carl Gershman, long standing head of the NED, Victoria Nulands boss, and his associates.
“In his youth, Gershman was involved in the civil rights movement, volunteering in Mississippi and Alabama and later working at the A. Philip Randolph Institute, an association of African-American trade unionists, as an assistant to Bayard Rustin. He also spent several years working on Israel-Palestine issues. In the late 1960s and early 1970s, he worked as a researcher for B’nai B’rith International, sat on the governing board of the American Jewish Committee, and served as executive director of Youth Committee for Peace in the Middle East.
A self-described social democrat in those years, Gershman became the executive director of Social Democrats-USA shortly after the Socialist Party-USA split into two factions in the early 1970s: a left-wing led by Michael Harrington, and a right-wing led by Gershman, Tom Kahn, and Rachelle Horowitz. The right faction morphed into SD-USA, which in the early 1970s rallied around Sen. Henry “Scoop” Jackson, the hawkish Democrat from Washington State whose staff was made up of several future key neoconservative figures, including Richard Perle, Frank Gaffney, and Elliott Abrams. Like many of these neoconservatives, Gershman was tapped to serve in the Reagan administration.[18]
Describing his political views years later, Gershman said, “I have to confess that, in my early youth, I was a kind of a social democrat of sorts; I’m now really a [small-d] democrat; I’m non-partisan.” In the same 2006 interview, he lamented the defeat of the neoconservative Democratic Sen. Joe Liebermanin Connecticut’s Democratic primary, praising Lieberman as “someone who tried to operate in a bi-partisan framework.”
http://www.rightweb.irc-online.org/profile/gershman_carl#sthash.MpBm5kzP.dpuf
Unlike Mr. Gershman, when I was young I leaned more toward Conservative thought process, King and Country, hard work and honesty will make you all you can be, damn the lazy sloths and all that. But as I’ve grown old and peeled back the layers of lies, I’m not so inclined to put my faith in that schpeel anymore.
I know many things about common men and Soldiering, although none of us ever rose above the rank Captain, we have no shortage of medals, and no shortage of generational suffering.
I take particular offense in the manipulation by certain groups of people who always seem to be at the core of mass destruction, and that’s why I posted the link above.
I hope this doesn’t seem like the ramblings of an old man, but I was thinking about the tactics being employed in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine yesterday, and I thought this just fits so much with the tactics of past centuries. Enemy of my enemy, singling out the disgruntled and exploiting them, use of religion, bribing warlords and or supposed Nobles, taking advantage of the uneducated, the poor, and their misery in order to?
Those who employ these things have a different gauge of personal fulfillment, and what makes a man a man, than what I have.
Orchestrating the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people and chaos hardly seems a worthwhile pursuit to me, especially if your goal is to have the ability to create trillions of fiat dollars so you can boast to your similarly mentally ill collection of self absorbed filthy stinking rich friends who are also completely void of worthwhile values and moral compass.
Yeah that was a rant wasn’t it? But I meant every word of it.
Dear Saker,
First, greetings to you and all the faithful readers, from Irkutsk, in Eastern Siberia.
And while not everything is perfect in Russia, the first thing I note upon being back is that the Russians are alive and well and have not yet been zombified by the American Way of Life promoted by the Americanist System and its European vassals. In that respect, your masthead that proclaims that “Russia stands for freedom” is perfectly true and relevant as far as it goes. It used to be that America stood for and was virtually synonymous with freedom and liberty, but its once proud and independent people have become a mass of dumbed down, terrorized, overmedicated and overtaxed drones which the predatory System exploits mercilessly to its own advantage, at least for now.
The Ukrainian situation is of course very much on peoples minds here, and the relatives and friends whom we spoke to are squarely behind the resistance movement in Novorossiya, and although they show little appetite for an open conflict between Russia and the Ukraine involving the participation of the Russian army, they are entirely in favor of continuing all the covert support, involving military supplies and volunteers, which Russia has been providing to the self-defense forces of Novorossiya. They have a message for the aggressive cabal that pulls the strings in Washington: Russians are slow to get angry, but once they are stirred up they will fight to the bitter end to ensure that the integrity and the security of the country are safeguarded. No threats of privations and economic hardship will deter them, quite the contrary, they will spur them to close up ranks and fire up the spirit of patriotic solidarity which had been almost destroyed during the Eltsyn years.
As for the Ukrainian desert, aptly described as such by the Saker,there is a great Russian proverb which sums it all up:
“Там, где прошёл хохол, еврею делать нечего.”
which translates roughly as such “Where the Ukie has gone through, there is nothing left for the Jew to do”.
Well, until next time, Saker, I send a cool Siberian breeze your way and I thank you for your dedication to the cause of Freedom and Justice,
American Russophile
PS To all the true American patriots out there, have a good Fourth of July!
Daniel Rich said…29 June, 2014 01:59
“Q: Has anybody else had a similar problem?
R: Yup. Most of the time it’s because someone has farted those 2 words onto a piece of paper and each letter could be anything you see in it [numbers are occasionally a haphazard endeavor, but so far so good].”
Oh, I know how difficult the letter captchas can be, but the fails all happened with numbers. Very easy 3 digit numbers, like right now it’s just 740. That is why I thought it so strange and wrote a comment about it.
Anyway, it stopped doing this now. Hopefully ;)
Anonymous @ 29 June, 2014 02:02
“Russia’s great defenses might be circumvented entirely and rendered impotent in the face of modern asymmetric warfare. Your faith is certainly stronger than mine”
I’m not sure NATO / America wants a real live test of it’s much touted and very expensive hi tech military hardware either. Shooting varmints wearing sandals is one thing, going up against an adversary with similar technological capabilities is quite another.
And for whose gain exactly? The people of Walmart and their right to buy more stuff from the Walton multi billionaires who source their ‘stuff’ from China where Western billionaires are very heavily invested?
Tricky business wot?
Russian would go to nukes right away.
Any general of the US (who always control NATO) would know they would have to first strike Moscow. Imagine mounting that first strike.
If they can’t decapitate the command and control of the Russian Federation, NATO would lose ten or twelve capitals of Europe.
On the battlefield, Ukraine would be demolished and Kiev would be leveled.
Now if someone thinks Crimea can be taken, the same goes there. It’s all Russia now.
First line of defense will be tactical nukes to destroy the Ukie Army that is in the field.
NATO will be flying overhead. Doing what? IF they cross into Russia, they are gone. Poles, Lithuanians? Are the French and Germans going to fly against Russian?
This is madness. It goes nuke so fast. No more Europe, no more US bases in Europe.
If NATO thinks this is Benghazi and Sirte, they are drunk or on drugs.
The way America and NATO fight is they cruise missile and bomb with stealth bombers first.
Now, that has to be total obliteration of all Russian first strike, air defenses, naval submarines, etc.
Not going to happen.
And how long could they hide the Ukes Army that is going to invade? Just putting their Army in the field against ragtag militias has shown they are not a hell of a lot better than Libya. Not even as good as Syria.
A mortal strike against Russia will bring an end to Europe.
“As for the US Navy”
As for the US navy, Attacking from the Med they would have to fly deep over “enemy” defenses. There is no easy, undefended path from the Adriatic. The Black sea is out the question it would be like starting a gang fight in the middle of your rivals neighborhood swimming pool. Every point of the Black Sea Grid can be easily hit with Russian land based missiles. The US will not risk ships there for the same reason it will not, and can not attack the straits of Taiwan – cruise missiles. Chines Silkworm missiles are deadly. Russian Iskander types are even nastier and more accurate. Imagine the outrage and horror in the US if 100 or 200 US aircraft were lost in a “punitive action” against Russia that the American people by a 4-1 margin want nothing to do with anyway. Now imagine losing 100 aircraft and 5 or 10 ships of the line………..OK. Out of the question. The US, despite Obamas claims, does not have, and never will have, the kind of manpower to attack with conventional ground forces into Russia. Germany could not do it with 100 divisions. The US surely can not do it with 10 or 12. FORGET-ABOUT-IT. As for “arming Ukraine” in “4 or 5 years”…that’s an even more farfetched idea. Its not clear that outside Kiev the Junta even has majority support, let alone support for ….wait for it….”an invasion of Mother Russia”….There may be 100,000 – 200,000 foaming at-mouth right sector types TOTAL in Ukraine, men women and children in all.. They right sector cant manage enough men to overwhelm Slavyansk….This leaves US nukes, which is countered by Russian nukes..US oligarchs want to bleed Russia, not to be vaporized in a 10 million degree fireball…there are scenarios that can be imagined, nightmare scenarios that end in a US nuclear attack. They all end in a Russian counterattack. I’m not trying to minimize the threat but lets be realistic about it. The threat is mainly, from asymmetric asymetric tactics.
I think the Ukrainian regime is more likely to fall apart under its own internal contradictions. And I honestly do not think the separatists will ever consent to rule from Kiev, or be a part of the EU/NATO.
Anonymous 01:16,
Yes, that was quite a rant. One of the best and most beautiful I think I’ve ever read. Thank you. And I’m sure hoping someone can translate or subtitle that Merkel piece.
And the info about Gershman also helps make sense of what happened to the Democratic Party; I thought they simply caved when Open Housing was introduced but I guess that was just the tip of the iceberg. So thank you for that, too.
Anonymous 02:34
Uh, the people of Walmart really can’t afford to buy much anymore. Neither the organization nor its customers are doing very well at the moment. But the Waltons are still uber-rich and politically-connected so there’s that.
The people running the Ukraine destabilization game are two bit, second stringers…that there are hawk factions in the military that egg them on and give political support via their contacts in NATO does not mean that there are not those who know the score and will pull the plug on the whole lot if it turns out that they can not pull it off ( including putting a bit on the head of the CIA) Poroshenko does not even rate as a Maliki. Besides, when Russia puts an import duty on his chocolate, will Walmart pick up the excess?
Get a grip and get some perspective. The timing of these hacks is way off and the blow back is not yet manifested itself. Most Ukrainians are trying to sit this one out and that is a quiet Elephant- in -the-livingroom fact.
I have a few more thoughts about Military, Putin’s Goals, and destabilization.
1500 or so NATO troops from a dozen nations will be coming to Ukraine for annual exercises. US troops included. They will be working with who from Ukraine Army? A few elite units of their best troops trusted enough to work alongside NATO troops.
Totally useless training in defense of Ukraine. NATO never defends anything. They attack and destroy.
So, now, we have Putin’s goals.
1. Preserve the peace for Russia.
2. Expand the markets and grow the economy.
3. Preserve International accords and laws.
4. Weaken the tools of the Hegemon, particularly in trade, finance, banking and sovereign wealth management.
5. Destabilize Kiev junta.
6. Keep NATO out of Ukraine.
7. Protect Russians wherever they live.
8. Keep arctic, Black Sea, Baltic Sea and Mediterranean, Far East maritime freedoms for RF navy and commerce.
9. Develop close strategic partners with Iran, India and Latin America nations like Venezuela, Cuba and Argentina.
10. Involve China in infrastructure development in Crimea, East Ukraine, Moscow subway expansion, Far East zones. More than the Silk Road and Gas Pipeline deals.
Finally, he is destabilizing EU unity and structure by dealing with France and Germany at highest level, destabilizing Kiev with a rebellion he supports, destabilizing the Hegemon’s efforts in Middle East (Syria, Iraq and Egypt). These are all Putin’s actions, not his dreams.
The Hegemon is trying to create internal dissent in Russia, weaken the economy with sanctions, threaten with NATO in some weak-ass manner, and indicate that some day Ukraine will be powerful enough to fight and win a war with Russia.
Six months from now who do you think will be ahead on goals, accomplishments, and stability and who will be the failure?
As I see it, America’s plan is foment civil war in Russia and then pick the side that is for breaking up the Russian Federation into its constituent parts and assist them in pushing the federation over the cliff.
Ukraine today is a prelude for Russia tomorrow, just like Chechnya and Georgia were trial runs for Ukraine.
America will actually attack Russia once Russians are sufficiently involved in fighting and killing each other. Even better, the excuse for the invasion of the American Expeditionary Force will be to help “secure” the nuclear arsenal of Russia to prevent it from being used during the Civil War ala “The Turner Diaries”, and this will be accomplished by threatening those who interfere with the invaders and working double time to keep them focused on killing each other.
Anyone who thinks Russians cannot be persuaded to start shooting each other should take a good look at Ukraine and ask themselves if in 2010 or 2012 they thought Ukraine would be in the midst of a civil war/Russian uprising by early 2014.
And as far as logistic support in such an extreme theater, well, look at landlocked Afghanistan, where America has managed to support a 14 year military operation surrounded on all sides by hostiles. It IS possible.
The question then for such a plan becomes what can be the trigger to a Civil War in Russia? Its not as though its unthinkable. Look at the Time of Troubles, Pougachev’s Rebellion, and the October Revolution.
NATO attacking Russia for whatever purpose is indeed ridiculous so why not add another “what if” to this:
What if the “ukraine” is meant to keep Russia busy while Barack Banana and his white masters are retaliating for their humiliating defeat in Syria and reshaping the M.E in the process? ISIS seems to be a Saudi/US/Zionazi concoction on their way to both split Iraq according to Zionazi/Saudi desires, most notably to favour their Kurdish allies AND do to Syria what the initial bearded freaks of Al- CIAeda or FSA or NATO never could do?
The US has recklessly been playing on different front´s all along. During the Olympic´s they attacked Russia via the ukraine while stirring things up in Venezuela and Korea simultaneously. The latter fell to rest while the ukraine keeps going but now with the ISIS menace on the front burner. Can Russia keep up with this?
I think that it does by the relatively low profile in the ukraine and by keep aiding Syria and sending Sukoi´s to Iraq, which according to Syrian Perspective is going to be piloted by retired Syrian SAAF pilots btw. The only “aid” the US will offer here is intelligence and drone support to ISIS me thinks. They have no intention to deal with them until they fail in Syria or (unlikely) would go for “israel”…
Mikhas.
So it sounds like you don’t find Glazyev’s fear of a huge army inside the Ukraine that threatening.
What if they build up their military and just keep lobbing a few stray missiles here and there? And send in teams to poison water or blow up bridges? And wait and hope for a Russian response? How would that play out?
Nato never attacks anyone whose is able to return a bloody nose. So Russia is safe in Crimea. In my experience watch out for the NATO sponsored NGOs.
(Non Governmental Organisations)
An article specifically concerning the events in the Ukraine, by Edward S. Herman, War is Our Business and Business Looks Good, Z Magazine, June 28, 2014.
http://zcomm.org/zmagazine/war-is-our-business-and-business-looks-good/
Saker and readers —
For what it’s worth, we have heard the ‘direct Russian intervention in Novorossiya by mid-July’ date from no fewer than three sources in the past week:
1) V the Guerilla Economist said it first on the ‘Hagmann and Hagmann Report’ web talk radio program, supposedly from his City of London sources
2) Pavel Felgenhauer — a 62-year-old Moscow State University educated military analyst linked to the alleged CIA front Jamestown Foundation — says Russia’s army won’t be ready to strike Ukrainian forces in Novorossiya until mid-July. Of course the very fact that Felgenhauer is on this list makes me think that V and the third source are receiving deliberate disinformation, as you can look at Felgenhauer’s poor track record prognosticating on the 08/08/08 war here. Apparently Felgenhauer was surprised at how quickly Russia routed the US and Israeli-trained Georgian forces and then quickly changed his tune to explain that the Russians had arranged a clever trap for the poor dumb Georgians.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pavel_Felgenhauer#Views
Unfortunately we don’t have a direct link to the Felgenhauer post, but it’s probably not worth your time anyway.
3) Rick Wiles of the Florida-based Evangelical End Times Christian radio program TruNews said he was told by a source that a direct Russia-Ukraine war was likely starting in mid-July. This was dismissed by his guest Dr. Jim Willie as hogwash. Willie believes Putin is going to let Ukraine economically collapse this winter and won’t intervene except through the not so covert support for Novorossiya forces already underway. Although Rick Wiles lives in Varo Beach, FL I doubt he talks to fellow Floridian the Saker…it’s a big state.
That’s all fine and dandy but then what was the PURPOSE of Sergei Glazyev talk?
I cannot believe he just indulged in casual chatting, there was a “message” intended but to exactly whom and with which meaning?
“…and could not even hold on to Krasnyi Liman.”
Krasnyi Liman remains under control of ukrainian National Guard. I saw some mentions by “Juan” that this is not the case, but those are just lies. I am from that city and as much as I wanted Krasnyi Liman to be free, it is controlled by ukrainian forces after June 4. What is true is that ukrainian forces could not hold on to nearby village of Yampol’ after they dispersed insurgents there in attacks on June 19 and 20. The control of Krasnyi Liman itself was never relinquished by the ukrainian forces, however.
Not that this matters for the argument at hand, but I wanted to correct the factual side of the statement.
OT ;)
Студенты потребовали от Хиллари Клинтон вернуть деньги за лекцию (The students demanded from Hillary Clinton to pay back the lecture)
http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/6/29/693225.html (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/vz.ru/news/2014/6/29/693225.html
“Students of the University of Nevada in Las Vegas require from former U.S. Secretary of state Hillary Clinton to return 225 thousand dollars for the scheduled for October 2014 speech at the annual meeting of the founders and sponsors of the Institute.
The demand was voiced after the Washington Post published the data according to which former US President bill Clinton, speaking earned about 105 million dollars, reports ITAR-TASS with reference to the TV station KTLA.
According to the newspaper, Hillary Clinton, after leaving the post of Secretary in the beginning of 2013, also began to give lectures, the fee for which is about 200 thousand dollars. For comparison, as head of the American foreign Ministry, she received 186 thousand dollars a year.
Representatives of the University noticed that students expect to return part of spent sponsors of funds and direct them to the needs of the institution. The Institute, according to their data, paid only for one lecture four times more than the average annual salary of inhabitants of Nevada.
“With this money we could give scholarships 225 students, to alleviate the burden of paid education”, – said the representatives of the student community.
Every statement Hillary Clinton is now attracting the attention of the public and the press, as it is considered one of the most likely candidates from the Democratic party for the presidential election in 2016. Meanwhile, the former Secretary of state claims that are not yet decided whether to take part in them.”
Стрелков назвал возможную цель боев на Востоке Украины (Shooters claimed the eventual goal of fighting in the East of Ukraine)
http://www.vz.ru/news/2014/6/29/693223.html (trans) http://translate.yandex.net/tr-url/ru-en.ru/www.vz.ru/news/2014/6/29/693223.html
Strelkov speculated that the Kiev regime might be deliberately sending green pravi sektor and maidanites troops to the fore in the SE in order to “dispose” of them.
I hope this speculation is made very available to banderivtsy troops in the SE. Learning such info will do them good… ;)
Maybe not direct attack on Russia, but the openly linked US provocations of the Ukraine and Iraq-Syria situations, enabling a new lever to attack Syria and expel Russia’s base there, is something extremely dangerous in terms of quasi-global war menace.
Retired US military and intel on Veterans Today claim that it appears a (very small) nuclear weapon was already used in Syria by Israel last year – mushroom cloud on tape.
Escalating aggression by a dying American empire and allies, is obviously something that can quite go out of control.
Both Russia and Iran have quickly woken up to this, as pointed out in good new article by retired ambassador from India M K Bhadrakumar –
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/06/29/russia-iran-wont-roll-over-in-syria/
It is said that in 2013 (tho hidden by major media) Syria sank a German-built Israeli submarine surfacing with infiltrators, and in reprisal Israel then dropped a mini-nuke (much smaller than Hiroshima) on Syria, here is the 2min. video ‘Tactical nuclear strike on Homs’, visibly a mushroom cloud, very chilling (tho film crew is pleased, shouting ‘Allahu Akbar!’) –
http://youtu.be/S–5_2EpsPc
Will the US get involved directly in a war with Russia or China? Chances are “no”. Any direct confrontation will lead quickly to consideration of nuclear bombs. Wars are not executed to be lost. Hence nukes. Which is why Amerika’s wars against Russia and China will be via proxies – stupid sacrificial lambs for the benefit of Washington in the hope that such wars will weaken, disunite or divide, and destabilizes Russia or China.
However … much as Washington wishes to uses foolish proxies, the question is that in regions or areas near to Russia and China, is .. “How able are these proxies to achieve Washington’s dreams?”
Georgia was a failure. South Vietnam was a failure. Iraq was a failure, Korea was a failure. Taiwan was a failure. Chances are Ukraine, Poland, Moldava, Romania, Japan, Philippines, and Vietnam will be failures. Except for Japan, most be quickly defeated and their land annexed. Such is the risk of the gamble and adventures, these maverick far right extremist governments takes when they gamble with war. The whole of Ukraine might even be lost. And that would be the height of STUPIDITY of that lying, untrustworthy, dishonorable stooge and fool, Poroshenko.
However these assume strong leaders in President Putin and Xi Jinping. Are they? If President Putin and Mr Xi are reading this, you HAVE to be strong when the war starts. You can’t avoid it since Washington is intent on starting one with you whether you like it or not.
Question is – Will the rest of the world just stand by idly or become incensed at Washington aggressive invasive behavior and rise up as one to ally themselves with Russia and China making the Americans enemies everywhere in the world. American ships will be seized as are all its assets – financial or physical seized everywhere, and all Americans interned until their government is overthrown by Americans themselves.
Let’s hope that psycho Obama knows where the consequences will lead Amerika and its people to.
My inner child loves to hear about fighter bombers, particularly exotic Russian ones. It’s like stamp collecting.
But the battle is a propaganda battle, and the “West” is winning.
That is what you must write about. Those are the armaments and strategic forces you must dissect and describe.
Dear The Saker,
Thank you for your analysis.
“American Kulak said…
For what it’s worth, we have heard the ‘direct Russian intervention in Novorossiya by mid-July’ date from no fewer than three sources in the past week:”
The way I read these “sources” AK is that they are putting the info out there so it ties up with the NATO drills in July……
Rgds,
Veritas
It will never happen for the simple reason that the American Reich never goes to war against countries that can actually defend themselves. They thought Vietnam, Iraq & Afghanistan would be cake walks because the militaries of these countries were lacking. They never thought the people themselves would rise up and vigorously resist US imperialism. Vietnam in particular resulted in huge losses and im surprised that particular conflict didn’t end sooner than it did, but there you go, put it down to stubbornness from Nixon & the MIC as well as the sluggishness of the public to demand an end to the mayhem.
вот так @ 08:18
On the Strelkov statement on Kiev trying to neutralize (“recycle” or dump in Strelkov’s words) the Right Sector by sending them to the front as canon fodder. I said the same thing here on May 31:
Your post seems to confirm my speculation on the situation: There is wide range support for the following plan to solve the Ukraine Crisis.
The Praviy Sector thugs and the Maidan volunteers in the National Guard will all be killed or liquidated. This will preferably happen in the open fields between Slavyansk and Izyum.
The regular army will not interfere, other than providing the National Guard a safe passage to the killing fields.
Russia will not interfere, other than providing a steady flow of volunteers and light weapons to keep the situation stable. Further interference could cause the regular army to side with the National Guard.
Russia and all pragmatic forces in Ukraine, including in the army support this plan. Poroshenko may be in on it.
The US, their puppets, and the junta do not support this. They want to escalate and most likely are hoping for a Russian attack.
Andrew,
I don’t know if you are serious about that, but breaking up Russia was a lot easier ten years ago than now. And I have not been surprised by the civil war in the Ukraine. The extreme nationalism that the US nurtured was to be a weapon against Russia. Were you surprised? The only question was how the European states would behave and whether a milder form of oppression against the Southeastern Ukraine was sufficient, or an all-out war.
And Chechnya and Georgia were not preparations for the Ukraine; they were failures. Designed, by the way, for the break-up of Russia.
Ukies can’t build military while the economy is collapsing. It would cause an outrage among majority suffering from austerity and Russia has the means to speed the collapse if necessary.
If Glazev’s 500K troops with heavy armor really do materialize next year, they would be easy targets for thermobaric Iskander warheads, not to mention tac nukes if all else failed.
Anon @ 3:32
The people running the Ukraine destabilization game are two bit, second stringers
The presence of Senator John McCain in the center of this whole mess would say otherwise in my mind. McCain is not only one of the most powerful sitting US Senator’s, he is a son of the heriditary US officer corps (yes heridiitary – the officer corps selects its own replacements and does so preferrably from its sons), and a billionaire via marriage. He is not just another guy.
Paul II:
I don’t know if you are serious about that, but breaking up Russia was a lot easier ten years ago than now.
I would agree, but caution that it is whenever we become absolutely certain of something like this that we should look for new possible faults to be exploited in a society. In the case of Russia, the exploitation of persecution of Russians abroad is an obvious possible fault to get Russians in Russia fighting each other – i.e. non-interventionists vs. interventionists. Another way might be to promote scandal in the Russian administration by spreading lies about Putin.
And I have not been surprised by the civil war in the Ukraine. The extreme nationalism that the US nurtured was to be a weapon against Russia. Were you surprised?
Up until mid-January I figured the Maidan craziness would eventually settle down and I probably discounted the number of Right Sector crazies. By February 22, I realized civil war was inevitable, because no one will take lying down the armed overthrow of the government they supported.
And Chechnya and Georgia were not preparations for the Ukraine; they were failures. Designed, by the way, for the break-up of Russia.
They were trial runs to gauge Russian reaction and capabilities. If they lead to something bigger, all the better, but that was not their intention.
To those who think Propaganda wins wars or gains turf:
It is used for preparation. Ukraine took 20 years to prepare for Maidan. But what really set Maidan loose was the last ten years of economic rape by the corrupt leaders of the nation. The desperate hope the people have by joining EU is more delusion. They are blind to the stark impact coming their way.
Now, during this hot war in the East, propaganda is aimed at internal control of the numbed citizenry who think little, know nothing and want it all to go away (but with a victory). That citizenry is in three classes: world opinion, Ukrainians, those of us who want Russia to blunt the Hegemon’s efforts.
Mass media news and opinion, Internet manipulations and all sorts of blog trolling don’t affect the other efforts on the ground or behind the scenes.
What matters is resupply, manpower with weapons, Intel and the will to win.
I refer to my previous post here on Putin’s 10 goals. (my creation, Vlad hasn’t spoken to me directly, you know.) I analyze his public life work, his achievements and his techniques. But I also analyze his resources and sense of timing.
There is evidence that Russia will survive all efforts to destroy her. There is also logic as a corollary. This includes the 70 years of nuclear deference.
In 1917 the U.S. tried invading Russia. It didn’t go well.
1917 Invasion
Dear Saker,
Many thanks for this post. I had not come across the scenario you describe on the net, but I was worried about whether the “West” was capable of just what it describes. Your analysis coincided with my suspicions, so that is a weight off my mind.
Thanks again.
On subversion against Russia, the opponents have been actively engaged in this since at least 1944, although some may argue that Hoover’s famine relief and related activities qualified as subversion.
This effort was accelerated from 1990 onwards – the cold war never ended, it instensified but assumed mutated forms.
This did not happen in a vacuum, or unremarked, or without reaction.
The opponent is not homogenous nor has ever been.
For example the opponents schemes in Eastern Europe in the 1940’s and 1950’s including agent insertion and guerilla activities were penetrated and destroyed with help from some of the “opponents own” such as Kim Philby, and led to much dissipation of energy on the opponents’ part in looking for “moles” – the career of James Jesus Angleton being particularly instructive.
It is true that all men use muscles to think, some their brains aand some their penises.
Subversion against Russia by the opponents is therefore to be welcomed strategically as it will be made to become a children’s crusade.
Whatever happened to Stepan Bandera?
Of course he’s serious, he’s seriously doing his job.
Actually there’s a higher chance of Americans starting to shoot each other, when the Dollar Index breaks down 70-72 area on its way to 52 and irrilevance…..
Andrew:
I can guarantee you that at least one way the West jumped the gun with Ukraine is that all this is paving the way for Putin getting higher and higher ratings and no Russian Maidan in sight.
Why? Because everyone can see what’s happening in Ukraine. Even the staunch anti Putinists here have calmed down their rhetoric somewhat. Even the pro Maidan people who were crowing about the new world coming and supporting Maidan as it was happening. They are pretty quiet at the moment.
No one, unless they are in the pay of someone else, wants Russia to end up like Ukraine. And so now Lukashenko and Putin will sit pretty for another 10 years at least. I bet this was not the result the West expected. Oh, and if there are ‘those someones’, you betcha thousands will turn out to take them down.
What I am afraid of is not Crimea but (A) an attempt to blockade, undermine and even overrun Transnistria combined with a de-facto take over of Moldova by US/NATO “advisers” who don’t leave. (B) A move into Azerbaijan leading to an attack on Armenian held territory claimed by Azerbaijan and, possibly, to overthrow the Armenian gov’t.
The thing that has wrecked the US Army has been the outsourcing of logistical and maintenance functions to thieving contractors.Our boys will be in a hell of a mess if they ever (God forbid) get in a land war against a real army.
The hidden premiss in many of these extrapolations is that Russia is the US and “friends”.
But Russia starts with an R or P depending on language, and the US starts with a U at least in English.
Dear Saker,
Ukraine-NATO invading Russia would be the mirror image of Russia invading Ukraine. In neither case is there an endgame. If there were, what would it be? I agree that Ukraine-NATO is unlikely to invade Russia, and I also doubt Russia will overtly invade Ukraine. But as I think about the unilateral rift the West has created with Russia, I am wondering whether, behind the scenes, China isn’t orchestrating this conflict: a divide-and-conquer strategy. Could China be strong-arming the West, via lobbyists in the US Congress, for example, or by other covert means, into making an enemy of Russia? China is the monster in the closet, the real threat to Anglo-Euro-Russian civilization. If the US, EU and Russia joined forces, China would be held at bay for a long time to come. So China would be motivated to subvert this powerful alliance.
Such a scenario would explain the animosity which has overwhelmed Western policy. Putin tried for years to become a strong partner to the West. It would be in the Anglo-Zionist’s interests to accept that partnership now, even if it means freeing Donbass! To lose eastern Ukraine is nothing compared to falling under Chinese domination.
Tom Garrett,
I agree, Armenia’s definitely at risk, any which way. But what is the benefit of our overrunning Transnistria? I mean, other than, like Grenada, we (theoretically) can.
And YES YES YES to the horrors of outsourcing ANYTHING, frankly, to do with the military. Bottom line, our troops are disposable, what really matters is profit profit profit. And there are plenty of retired top brass8839 sitting pretty on the boards of those damned corporations too.
Anonymous 22:12,
“China is the monster in the closet, the real threat to Anglo-Euro-Russian civilization”. What are your facts to support your claim?
Are you from Japan? or one of America colonies from southeast pacific? I guess owned by some one is a lot easier than work on your own, and be a respected Sovereign state. It really shows.
@ Veritas “The way I read these “sources” AK is that they are putting the info out there so it ties up with the NATO drills in July……” Veritas — I concur. I think the sources for 1 and 3 are legit but those individuals may be hearing disinfo. To give you all an example of how government disinfo via the ‘alternative media’ works, we saw something similar before the 2012 election where Cass Sunstein operatives spread fake conspiracy theories via the website ‘The Ulsterman Report’ and other alt media platforms that Obama planned to suspend the election and declare martial law.
Of course, none of that was ever going to be necessary because the election was already in the bag for Barry, both from internal polling (there is evidence Romney’s favorable numbers were manipulated by polling firms Soros or other deep Dem pockets had hands in) and if need be rigged voting machines, as many Dems swear put Dubya over the top in 2000 and 2004.
@ Andrew – it’s true McInsane is not just another guy, he is a dialed in member of the CFR elite despite his lack of high intelligence or class. But to imagine that he still has much more respect among the officer corps or even intelligence community than the current occupant of the White House is a bit much.
Regarding Glazyev’s fears about Ukraine becoming a giant marshaling yard for another Barbarossa or at least an endless destabilization campaign with jihadists and Right Sector maniacs all blowing themselves up/committing terrorism all the way to Moscow, I can’t quite see it happening. Though the Pravy Sektor Al-Banderaeda threat could certainly be sustained for years to come.
I’m not saying Glazyev is wrong to suggest that the Ukie regime will continue to expand its military clout and rearm, but I do think economically they need vastly more support from the IMF/EUrocrats/banksters just to get through the winter without Poroshenko having to flee Kiev.
We already saw a Battalion Donbass rally Sunday with Kholomoisky’s Battalion Donbass (aka Dumbass) leader threatening Choco-Poro with ending up like Yanukovich if he doesn’t escalate the war. The LNR spokesman is already saying that there are indications Kholomoisky-funded private armies are ignoring the Ukrainian President’s ceasefire order, as are the Nazi Guards near regular army units using their equipment. It’s interesting to note too that the WSJ just ran a disgustingly fawning profile of Ihor Kholomoisky, calling him a ‘feisty’ oligarch. What was interesting about this piece was not the WSJ going full presstitute/Sikorski for #Ukraine, but that the article admitted Kholomoisky has been a major funder of Ukraine’s war effort. Most surprising of all was that the whitewash didn’t go over well even within the anti-Russia ‘expert’ community, with even the neocon hack @MichaelDWeiss of InterpreterRag retweeting a tweet saying Ukraine didn’t need more warlordism.
Anyway, since a new Bolotnaya isn’t in the cards, the best the Empire seems to hope for is to yet provoke direct Russian intervention or use Russian non-intervention to divide the nationalists from pragmatists. The problem of course with this too clever by half scheme is that many people who still don’t want to see a Russian invasion are willing to covertly help Novorossiya, while many on the interventionist side do not want it to be large or protracted enough to achieve the NWO’s goal of preventing Russia from moving forward on Eurasian integration.
Dear Anonymous 23:56,
You quoted my comment (Anonymous 22:12), in which I said, “China is the monster in the closet, the real threat to Anglo-Euro-Russian civilization”. Then you replied, “What are your facts to support your claim? Are you from Japan?”
Well, asking for facts seems a bit ridiculous, the assertion is so obvious to many in the West. China is huge and rapidly growing. Chinese historians have repeated for centuries that China really owns the earth, that it has merely loaned it to other peoples, and that it shall reclaim it at some point in the future. (Sorry, I have forgotten the author’s name, but this was a scholar’s tome on China’s past.) China is a dictatorship. China also acquired by force the large independent nation of Tibet.
Forgive me if I offended you. Are you Chinese? I like the Chinese people very much. However, I hope to preserve our Caucasian culture as well. Naturally, it is not the Chinese people I hold responsible for their government’s actions. And I was only referring to the government when I said “China”.
My point, of course, was whether China (its government) is orchestrating the rift between the US and Russia.
You quoted my comment (Anonymous 22:12), in which I said, “China is the monster in the closet, the real threat to Anglo-Euro-Russian civilization”. Then you replied, “What are your facts to support your claim? Are you from Japan?”-
———————————
Propaganda.
America wants to break up first Russia and then to fragment China.
In that case USA would create a UNIPOLAR world, something like American Third Reich which would last for the next thousand years.
America wants to carve up Russia in ten new states and Chine perhaps in new twenty states so America would not have any challenge.
Croat and Russophille
Dear Anonymous 00:59
Did I step on your toe, your colonial master of world?
Do you feel threatened as you felt with Russia? Chinese always consider herself to be center of world, where friends come to trade, exchange culture, and who travel to the world for friendship, trade, and culture. Too bad the west can not do same. They only know export democracy at gun point.
Chinese government took after her people and plans years ahead, and your democratic government looking after your 1% and plan for next election, can not even fix your crumbling infrastructure. I am sure they are your proud and joy.
Thanks for your kindness of “liking” Chinese people, how can we live in the world without your approval???!!!
By the way, Tibet is part of China, like it or not. It will not change.
Dear Anonymous 00:59
My point of cause, After mess up every county you touched, and every continent, now you are hit the wall trying to mess with Russian and Chinese. Keep tell yourself you are exceptional, and maybe it will not hurt as much, maybe you can even learn a new skill of patting yourselves on the back for every defeat.
You know, I really like you people at west, am sure only your government are morons. I feel so bad for you although you let it happen. But your government made billions selling killing machine, I am sure the money trickled down to your economy and benefited you.
“Do you feel threatened as you felt with Russia? Chinese always consider herself to be center of world, where friends come to trade, exchange culture, and who travel to the world for friendship, trade, and culture. Too bad the west can not do same.” In fairness to the Chinese who post here, since the Communist Party took power, there have been a great number of slaughter, starvation and atrocities by Chinese against Chinese (Cultural Revolution etc) and the conquest of Tibet was a bloody affair, as was the Korean War in which China engaged the U.S. in a bloody stalemate.
However, since 1953 — in other words for over half a century — the Chinese have only fought brief border wars with India and Vietnam/Cambodia. The key thing to remember here is that China is more of an empire or a civilization than a country in the normal sense, occupying a land mass in Asia as large or bigger than the lower 48 US states. China has historic claims to some territory in Eastern Siberia and Russia’s Far East that have been resolved, partially by treaty, with Russia since the 1990s. As it is, China has little need to ‘invade’ Russia’s Far East to get resources when it can bargain for them at very good prices due to the geopolitical clash between Russia and the US/EUSSR. China also can send young entrepreneurs to Russia, they can intermarry with Russian women, and this from Beijing’s long decades-to-century-long time frame is far more profitable than stupidly doing what China’s enemies in the West would want and invading a nuclear armed power in a taiga land grab (eg the plot of the Tom Clancy novel “The Bear and the Dragon” which has no relevance to reality). Why fight for Amur Krai when it might be Chinese anyway in 50 years, long after Arizona is back with Mexico? Or perhaps more positively from a Russian perspective, that territory would still be Russian as Vancouver, BC is Canadian but will in essence, become ‘Amur-Kitai’ as Eurasian identity becomes a matter of Chi-Kazahk-Russo intermarriage and not just an Alexander Dugin idea.
Turning to the Pacific and Indian Oceans which are the logical regions for Chinese mercantilist expansion, China has no history of overseas aggression/empire building, though it did engage in very adventurous exploration and trade under the Admiral Zheng He who sailed all the way to the Horn of Africa and back. Even the Russians with their colonization of Alaska down to Northern California for a time were more aggressive overseas than the Chinese, who for thousands of years have been an insular civilization which felt it didn’t need much of anything from outsiders.
Thus, when one wishes to discuss Chinese aggressiveness or a grand Chinese plot to pit Russia and the West against each other, one must ask if this is either A) logical given China has clearly taken Putin’s side in Crimea if not explicitly in Novorossiya where CCTV has been sympathetic to the rebels B) why would China help the West grind down Russia when the Russian Federation is China’s biggest and most secure supplier of oil, gas, timber, minerals and almost everything else it needs that the US Navy cannot interdict and America can’t cut off without nuclear war? Especially at a time when China is faced with and is very angry over the US Navy/Air Force pivot to Asia as well as its neighbors Vietnam and Japan taking more aggressive postures against China’s island chain claims.
Croat and Russophille,
Exactly. US does not need any help to come up with original ideas to undermine Russia and China. Only its own people believe in its propaganda.
Chinese idea of good society is free of war, free of crime, plenty of food, proliferation of art, music, and literature, friends from worlds, and a strong army to protect herself.
China is the monster in the closet, the real threat to Anglo-Euro-Russian civilization. If the US, EU and Russia joined forces, China would be held at bay for a long time to come. So China would be motivated to subvert this powerful alliance.
=
HARBIN (China), June 30. /ITAR-TASS/. Russia and China may reach $200 billion in trade earlier than 2020, visiting Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said at a meeting of the deputy prime ministers from Russia and China with governors and business circles of the two countries which was held at the first Russian-Chinese EXPO that opened in the Chinese city of Harbin on Monday.
“We have a task set by the leaders of Russia and China to reach $200 billion in the volume of our trade and
American Kulak,
You seems more informed of Chinese history than 99% of american I met. Your historic view is pretty much correct (I will leave everything else along).
Are you also Russian? I only read some snippets of information of how Russian academics are not really in favor of China, and I hear more of how China is taking advantage of Russia talk from here and there. But from what you posted, It seems Russian is more open, and programmatic than I thought. It is a nice surprise, and sign of good, stable relationship to come.
Hello Saker and Friends,
I am the one who referred to China as “the monster in the closet”. It appears the monster has now come out of the closet! :-
My intent in my original post was to present for discussion the idea that logically the US-EU should be cooperating with Russia, and that it is in the West’s best interests to work with, and not against, Putin. The upshot is, the US-EU should not be helping Poroshenko. I was speaking in support of Novorossiya’s freedom, albeit from a different standpoint. This idea only occurred to me Saturday night after a deep discussion with my husband.
Since it is logical that the US, EU and Russia would benefit from alignment (which Putin sought for many years), it begs the question of why the West has disrupted this alignment. It occurred to me that China would benefit from just such a disruption. And indeed, as one poster noted, China has already benefited by signing the gas deal. So the question remains, could China be orchestrating the rift between the US-EU and Russia?
Another astute poster, who may have read the same historical tome I did, points out that China has not conducted much in the way of military aggression overseas. This is true. China’s dominance historically, and increasingly today, is through economic means.
I was hoping, with my comment, to support Russia, help save Donbass, and encourage cooperation between the Western powers and Putin. My thinking is often unusual, and sometimes people negatively react to the odd sound of my words. This is anything but propaganda. I have no TV, and read no Western media. This is a completely new idea I stumbled upon after a two-hour discussion of all the myriad aspects of the puzzle.
Victory to Novorossiya!
Keep thinking!
Hello Saker and Friends,
I hope I’m not posting this twice. I didn’t get any confirmation from captcha that my post had gone through.
I am the one who referred to China as “the monster in the closet”. It seems the monster is now out of the closet! :-
My intent in my original post was to present for discussion the idea that logically the US-EU should be cooperating with Russia., and that it is in the West’s best interests to work with Putin. The upshot is, the US-EU should not be helping Poroshenko. I was speaking in support of Novorossiya’s freedom, albeit from a different standpoint. This idea only occurred to me Saturday night while in deep discussion with my husband.
Since it is logical that the US, EU and Russia would benefit from alignment (which Putin sought for many years), it begs the question of why the West has disrupted this alignment. It occurred to me that China would benefit from just such a disruption. And indeed, as one poster said, China has already benefited by signing the gas deal. So the question remains, could China be orchestrating the rift between the US-EU and Russia?
Another astute poster, who may have read the same historical tome I did, points out that China has not conducted much in the way of military aggression overseas. This is correct. China’s dominance historically, and increasingly today, is through economic means.
I was hoping, with my comment, to support Russia, help save Donbass, and encourage cooperation between the Western powers and Putin. My thinking is often unusual, and sometimes people negatively react to the odd sound of my words. This is anything but propaganda. I have no TV, and read no Western media. This is a completely new idea I stumbled upon after a two-hour discussion of all the myriad aspects of the puzzle.
Victory to Novorossiya!
Keep thinking!
Sorry my previous comment posted twice. I had a problem with captcha.
To American Kulak,
You said: “Thus, when one wishes to discuss . . . a Chinese plot to pit Russia and the West against each other, one must ask if this is either A) logical given China has clearly taken Putin’s side in Crimea . . . B) why would China help the West grind down Russia when the Russian Federation is China’s biggest and most secure supplier of oil, gas, timber, minerals . . .”
These are good questions. That China might be orchestrating the West-Russia rift is consistent with point A. China is playing each side off against the other. About point B, nothing in the recent conflict has threatened China’s resources from Russia. Indeed, China has already benefited by the gas agreement. So both your points support the idea that China might be provoking this rift. As for “wearing down Russia”, this hasn’t happened. Nor do I think it will.
I’ve proposed this question to examine all sides of the issue, which I find puzzling. The sudden rabidness of Western anti-Putin propaganda calls for an explanation, since he hasn’t done anything wrong. Why would the US-EU create such a rift? Could China be somehow involved?
Wow, interesting conversation here, and despite all the “West” knocking and go Mother Russia, i thought i would interject this.
If anyone believes for one second that the West will die a slow and painful death as a civilization better start re thinking that one.
The “West” will destroy Russian, China, and “other” malcontents in but a blink of an eye, yes they will also be obliterated, but make no mistake, they will get in the first hit!
Secondly, Senior Pukin, will be assassinated very shortly buy someone in the “Russian” mafia who’s fortunes have been hit hard by the new and improved and hard hitting sanctions about to be released by the West in time for the holidays.
Mr. Pukin and his cadre are all nothing more than elevator shoe wearing megalomaniacs, and like his predecessor Adolph, he too will be dispatched sooner rather than later.