Day 21 of the Russian special military operation – 3 questions

Today, I begin with this: something I would call a good summary of CNN’s wishful thinking

This has everything!

Putin is a “pure thug”
Russians are indiscriminately murdering civilians en masse
“Ex-KGB” “agent” says what his CIA handlers tell him to
Klitschko is as verbally clever as he always is
China is about to screw Russia over
Drones threaten NATO (apparently including Ukie ones?)
A retired colonel opines that Russia is running out of manpower
US casualties in Kiev

And against this deluge of lies, Bernhard at Moon of Alabama does a superb job deconstructing that kind of crap, see here: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/neo-nazis-in-ukraine-fake-incidents-to-gain-more-western-support.html.

But it feels like such an uneven and lopsided battle…

How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?

I guess we will fight for as long as God gives us strength.

Anyway,

There were a few cities liberated today, here is the machine translation of Boris Rozhin’s report:

1. Mariupol. The cleanup of the city continues successfully. Advanced units reach the central areas, the enemy is gradually pushed back to Azovstal. Civilians continue to leave the city. The military on the ground are talking about the timing of the liberation of Mariupol – 4-7 days.

2. Ugledar. The village has not yet been officially taken, but to the north of it the troops are already advancing to Bogoyavlenka, with a subsequent movement to Kurakhovo. Prechistovka is taken from the west of Ugledar, which creates prerequisites for both movement to the north and for a U-turn to Velikaya Novoselka.

3. Maryinka-Avdiivka. There are no particularly serious advances yet. It is impossible to overcome the enemy’s powerful fortified areas with a rush. Aviation and artillery are trying to make the task easier, but so far the cumulative effect of multi-day strikes has not yet been achieved.

4. Gorlovka. Novotoretsk remained for the DPR. The APU counterattacks to retake the village were repulsed. Tomorrow, perhaps, the advance will begin either to Novoselka-2, or in the direction of New York.

5. LNR. They took Rubezhnoye, the enemy withdrew to Severodonetsk, where persistent street fighting continues. Lisichansk is not being actively stormed yet. The liberation of these cities is a matter of time. Fighting continues in the western part of Popasnaya, the city is not yet fully controlled by the LPR, the enemy stubbornly clings to it.

6. Kharkiv. Active fighting to the east of the city. There is no information confirming the occupation of even a part of Chuguev by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation yet. In Izyum, the enemy continues to defend themselves in the southern part of the city and tries to unblock the road in the Kamenka area, where the fighting is going on near the Izyum-Slavyansk highway. The front from the north is gradually shifting towards Slavyansk.

7. Kiev. Attempts of the APU to be active on the Vyshgorod-Gostomel-Bucha line ended with serious losses of the APU in people and equipment. A serious counteroffensive failed. It is noted that the Western grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continues to methodically press south, trying to get out and gain a foothold in the Vasilkov area. In the east, Ukrainian sources report the occupation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of several villages on the outskirts of Brovary. There is no confirmation of this from our side yet.

8. Sumy and Chernihiv. Without major changes.

9. Nikolaev. Fighting north of the city. The city itself is blocked from three sides, but there is no assault. The transfer of reinforcements for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation through Kherson is noted. The Armed Forces of Ukraine expect the activation of operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this direction in the coming days.

10. Odessa. The ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation work on targets on the coast, complementing the work of aviation. There are no landing events, but the enemy is forced to keep serious forces here, for fear of missing the moment of the exhibition. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, having won complete dominance at sea, now performs a binding role, forcing the enemy to keep troops near Odessa that would be useful in the area of Nikolaev or Krivoy Rog.

Finally, no map today (I am too tired to wait for Readovka)

A final comment:

A mini-Banderastan next?

I think that we are headed for a partition of the Ukraine.

The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia), will probably take the western Ukraine.

The pretext will be some kind of “Russian atrocity”.

NATO will call it a peacekeeping/peacemaking operation.

Question 1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?

I guess is that the devil would be in the details.

For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment. How likely is that?

I would say that not likely at all for the foreseeable future. First, the full magnitude of the economic suicide of the Eurolemmings has to become self-evidently clear, visible, undeniable and obvious. This will take weeks and even months to become fully obvious.

Second, right now the USA, Poland and the UK want war. Thus any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run (as much as Poland or Estonia). If that mini-Banderastan can be veritably disarmed from any weapon systems capable of threatening Russia, then maybe something can be negotiated. If all the Ukie Nazis want to live there, well that’s fine by me, as long as the rest of the Ukraine can truly and firmly lock that border. That might require Russians to create a Russian military base somewhere west/southwest of Kiev with a function similar to the 201st base in Tadjikistan. And no, this is not a “good” solution, but that assumes better options.

Question 2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?

Lastly, there is the issue of border.

Question 3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?

To tell you the truth, I am increasingly becoming convinced that until Russia fires a few Iskanders/Kalibrs into NATO territory (Poland or Romania for example) the Eurolemmings will not come back to their senses.

Do you share that feeling?

And, finally, please stay on topic!

Thank you

Andrei

Richard Steven Hack on March 17, 2022 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT

My answers to your three questions:

“The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia), will probably take the western Ukraine. The pretext will be some kind of “Russian atrocity”. NATO will call it a peacekeeping/peacemaking operation.

I suspect that the Poles and NATO will not do this. Instead, they will try to use their CIA-created “mercenary army” – which is already falling apart by all accounts – to intervene in Western Ukraine in a “Save the Nazis” campaign based on the “humanitarian crisis” once the emigrants to Poland become unsustainable.

Needless to say, this will fail disastrously. Then the US and NATO will have to make the decision whether to intervene or not. The question then becomes: Intervene with what? NATO has the bulk of US forces in Germany, not Poland. Russia can easily inflict huge damage on the so-called “Rapid Reaction Force.” Russia will not allow the up to 70,000 or more US troops to assemble themselves on the Polish border without warning the US and NATO off.

And then there’s the THIRTY NATO war games that prove to the smarter-if-not-wiser heads in the Pentagon that Russia will win against any conceivable NATO operation.

So the question then devolves to: Can the Pentagon convince Biden that it will be suicidal to take on Russia in Western Ukraine? Or will the neocons and public pressure to “do something” override the Pentagon? This is really the only question that matters in this whole affair.

“Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?”

No, absolutely not. I agree with Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov. Russia will go to the Polish border, seize Lvov, find and deport everyone associated with the neo-Nazi parties and militias (the latter will be arrested and either tried for war crimes or executed or both.) Russia will then get a new Ukraine government cleansed of neo-Nazis, then get a new Constitution banning the neo-Nazi parties and militias. Once that is done, and the new Ukrainian police services backed by Russian intelligence counters any neo-Nazi underground movements, whether CIA supported or not, there will be no political influence in Ukraine by the neo-Nazi organizations.

This is all Russia cares about in its “de-Nazification”: get a pro-Russian government with no Nazi influence. Russia doesn’t care about eliminating everyone with a neo-Nazi bent in Ukraine. That’s impossible. Just get rid of their ability to have influence.

“For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment. How likely is that? I would say that not likely at all for the foreseeable future.”

Agreed. That is the project for which the Ukraine invasion is just a minor step one.

“Thus any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run (as much as Poland or Estonia).”

Agreed.

“If that mini-Banderastan can be veritably disarmed from any weapon systems capable of threatening Russian, then maybe something can be negotiated.”

Why negotiate? Identify who are the neo-Nazi/nationalist influencers and simply deport them. Ban the parties and militias. What’s left? Disgruntled nationalist with no influence on the government or the rest of Ukraine. No ability to use violence to achieve their agendas without running into some Chechens working for the Russian intelligence operations in Ukraine.

“Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?”

See above. The tanks only need to stay long enough to insure the new Ukrainian political operations are in progress and that there is no evidence that US forces in Poland are intending some sort of “counter-invasion.” Not really a problem.

“Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?”

Wait. Crossing the border is a valid casus belli for a Russian reaction. Striking inside a NATO country is a casus belli for Article V. Besides, it’s pointless. NATO knows that any force crossing the border is going to be hit. They can’t do it without “preparing the ground.” Which means direct NATO attack by air force, cruise missiles, etc. on Russian forces, Russian AD, etc. Otherwise they’re just sacrificing the NATO force to Russian air and missile attacks.

The only way they do this is if they are directly intending a nuclear strike on Russia. There may be some crazies around the White House and Brussels who want that, but cooler heads are likely to prevail. But if Russia strikes first across the border, those cooler heads get drowned out.

As I said above, I DO expect them to try their CIA “mercenary army” first. That is not a direct NATO move against Russia, at least in PR terms. So Russia can destroy them without starting WWIII. The question then is what does NATO do? I submit: nothing.

“To tell you the truth, I am increasingly becoming convinced that until Russia fires a few Iskanders/Kalibrs into NATO territory (Poland or Romania for example) the Eurolemmings will not come back to their senses.”

They don’t have to. What needs to happen is the Pentagon puts it foot down. It just did that with the no-fly zone and the Polish MiGs nonsense. I believe they will continue to do so. The question mark is: how stupid, inept or disoriented is Biden? How far will the Pentagon go to avoid WWIII?

Remember Napoleon: A general must be willing to resign his commission rather than serve as the instrument of his country’s destruction. I think there are still military people in the Pentagon who understand that a war with Russia means the destruction of the US and EU.

In any event, as I said in my earlier post in this thread, all we can do is look after our own survival. We have no control. All we can hope is that someone does.

441 Comments

RodW on March 17, 2022 · at 8:02 pm EST/EDT

Q3:
NATO countries are waging full scale economic war against Russia, so Russia should turn off the energy spigot. I’ve heard the argument that Russia wants to be seen as a reliable supplier, but things have gone beyond that stage now. It would be hard for NATO to use the closing of Nordstream 1 as a causus belli, but if they did, then the missiles could be used.

Russia needs to make the people of Europe see how stupid the European pols are and how they aren’t serving the people’s interests at all. Economic pain and hunger will move them in that direction far more effectively than missiles would.
casey on March 17, 2022 · at 8:03 pm EST/EDT

As one major danger is Slav-specific bioweapon, I don;t see how that can be defended against by holding territory.
Stand Easy on March 17, 2022 · at 8:04 pm EST/EDT

I am of the same mind as one of the columnists here, Nasser Qandil, with regard to what this special operation is really about: Russia challenging the Hegemon; the real contest is between RF and the US.

Hence this ‘war’ in the Ukraine will end when both decide that it will end. I do not know when it will end but allow me to speculate what the ending will look like:

The Ukraine will be divided between the LDNR republics within their original administrative borders and an expanded Russian Crimea along the Black Sea coast inclusive of Odessa and the rump Ukraine in the west with a demilitarised zone between them. There will be some population transfer between the two entities — those who prefer to be ‘Russian’ will move east while those who prefer to be ‘Europeans’ will move west.

Russia will insist that the rump Ukraine should also be demilitarised — no air force, certainly no missiles, no tanks, etc — but otherwise it will be left alone to be whatever it likes. It can hold torch-lit marches every night and gay parades every day if it wants to. Russia will care not a jot.

LDNR will most likely join the Union State which will be heavily armed on its western borders. As I have said, this will be a frozen conflict — flare-ups will occur but will decrease in frequency as the West continues on its decline.

Longer term, the Union State will turn its back on Europe and will see itself as more a separate and distinct Eurasian civilisation than a European one.
- George on March 18, 2022 · at 7:08 am EST/EDT
  
  I am not a supporter of paleolibertarianism, but I once read in Bergland’s chapter “Obstacles to a Clear Understanding of Government”: “Reification” is an intricate word for treating concepts or labels as if they actually exist by themselves. The mistake is that in reality there are not concepts and labels, but only people. The “government” does not exist as something separate from its constituent people. Of course, it is necessary to have the term “government” as well as the terms “church”, “school”, “army”, “union”, “corporation”, “family”, etc. But none of these group labels lies outside or above the concept of “individuals” of their constituents.”
  Maybe you’re right. You should always be aware of what is primary and what is secondary. Politics or war. A tail or a dog. A cart or a horse.
  The Government of Ukraine is not independent. Ukraine is an arena where actors are fighting. You can call them conditionally “Russia” and “USA”. It would be nice to understand who these “Russia” and “USA” are and what their goals are.
  I think it is still impossible to predict exactly how the territory of the former Ukraine will be divided, whether missile systems will be removed from the territory of Romania and Poland. We can only say that Russia should continue what it started until the problem is resolved. The need to resolve world contradictions is overdue.
  I apologize if my comment reads clumsily in machine translation.
Pablozz on March 17, 2022 · at 8:04 pm EST/EDT

Could someone inform me of the 1997 borders intent. I dont see how that idea is possible without ww3. Nato certainly wont back down on rolling back. So im unsure of all the regions involved in this plan
Erlindur on March 17, 2022 · at 8:06 pm EST/EDT

I think that Ukraine is irrelevant. This is zone A vs zone B. Russia needs to lead. Russia never wanted to be the leader of the free world but right now she is the only one able to take that role.

So, lets discuss tactics. Armchair general here…

Sanctions. De-tooth that beast. Say “After some of Russian banks went off the SWIFT system, there is an imbalance in the Russian banking sector. Therefore all Russian banks go to SPFS. Any colleagues need to establish payments to Russia (like oil or gas) are free to establish SPFS points at their soil. Alternative they can pay though CIPS that is already connected to SPFS.”

Strategic. Attack NATO sites n Romania and Poland. OK, a few zircons at the anti-missile sites in Poland and Romania. Destroy them, What will NATO do? Go full nuclear? And why are the defense modules not working? The west is so entrenched in its superiority complex that it will go nuts there.

Tactical. What Russia does now. Ukraine is losing. They seem to win PSYOPS but they are not.
Think about it. They have to tone down to accept a solution. How can you tone down after what is going on right now? You called it buthurt but it is a PSYOP nightmare.
Benedict on March 17, 2022 · at 8:07 pm EST/EDT

I believe that if Russia attacks any NATO country, even just Poland or Romania, the conflict will escalate by an order of magnitude. The world does not need this so I hope it will not happen, no matter how just we feel the Russian cause to be.
- Carlos on March 18, 2022 · at 12:11 am EST/EDT
  
  I think NATO is afraid of Russia.
- Steffen Bendel on March 18, 2022 · at 5:30 am EST/EDT
  
  I do not think Russia would start to attack NATO countries. If they try air strikes with planes, they will try to shoot them down over Ukrainian soil. If they use missiles, well, they Russia probably will use missiles to attack the launch point. But that could escalate quickly. That is why no-one is trying anything at the moment.
Andre on March 17, 2022 · at 8:08 pm EST/EDT

Fire into NATO territory so they come to their senses? No thanks. That would likely have the opposite effect and also greatly increase the risk of all out war, because the hawks who say Putin is not content just with Ukraine will get the upper hand.

We know from military war gaming of potential scenarios that direct conflict involving NATO and Russia tends to become nuclear very fast simply because the nukes exist etc. It is folly to strike NATO territory just on a hope that it will wake a few people up. Just find a very loud rooster instead.

Surely you are not serious and just meant it as a figure of speech, i.e, “is that what it would take to get these NATO clowns to see reality”.

I am a communist, so have no desire to see people’s belief in a destructive end times be fulfilled. We are an optimistic bunch, because history proves how humans overcome these things and overall we do progress et cetera, although we are well aware that the imperialist’s demise will probably be very messy.
Andres on March 17, 2022 · at 8:08 pm EST/EDT

“But it feels like such an uneven and lopsided battle…
How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?”

There’s no short-term fix. My experience in this topic is that cultural changes take a lot of time, and “private individuals” such as us should learn to explain this with poise and calm to good-hearted brainwashed people or people that can afford to have a doubt. It’s an “ant-work” as we say in Spanish.

“Mariupol. The cleanup of the city continues successfully. Advanced units reach the central areas, the enemy is gradually pushed back to Azovstal. Civilians continue to leave the city. The military on the ground are talking about the timing of the liberation of Mariupol – 4-7 days.”

I have a question that tI asked before but may be buried in a comment section somewhere in this site: If there is an en-masse surrender, how would RF and DLNR militaries know who is a Banderite and who is just a poor devil? Tattoos? Do they have a list?

The neonazis should be killed on the spot, as Russian did in Berlin when they spotted an activist or member of the DNZAP.

“Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?”

Would it be more dangerous than Poland to the RF? If the distance to Moscow is reasonably far for a future hipersonic missile, I don’t see any problem.

“Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?”

No way! Keep out from Western Ukraine. Let they cook in their own juices.

“Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?”

Not before they cross. No matter how loud these chihuahuas bark, you can ignore them if they don’t literally cross the line.
durlin on March 17, 2022 · at 8:10 pm EST/EDT

Anyone know where Moldfova sits in all of this,, which way do they lean? Could be a big hairy monkey in the coal mine.
- iR on March 18, 2022 · at 11:30 am EST/EDT
  
  Pro EU. Pro Nato. Territory divided after civil war early 90s. Frozen conflict. Russian peacekeepers in the unrecognized Transnistria state ever since. Recently there have been reports how Moldavia now is ready to accept the soveregnity and sessesion of Transnistra from it’s territory. Could open up for a fast track into Nato, a prerequisit for EU membership.
  
  Sorry no links.
Band Itkoitko on March 17, 2022 · at 8:10 pm EST/EDT

The situation is that the West is in a position of a singularity, balancing on top of a needle. They threw everything they had, they gambled everything they had in this confrontation. They bet 100% of themselves and their lives on a total victory, on a single point in space and time, on something of measure/probability zero. No contingency or preparation, or even the assumption of a different outcome. So anything that does not result in a complete collapse and disappearance of Russia, will be not just a defeat but a total defeat. It’s so black and white.

They are fully invested in something that will never happen. This is a very desperate and dangerous position. In essence, the West will find itself similarly to the Azov nazis locked and surrounded and will need to face their inevitable end and the death of their exceptional being. This realization usually comes with an extremely neurotic and dangerous behavior (full-blown rage) as what we are seeing from the nazis now. It leads to the desire to destroy and turn everything into the hell that’s inside.

Everything they have thrown in this war (economy, finance, their whole system, money, ideology, religion, culture) can and will become a casualty of the war. The war is total, as they admit, and the outcome will be total.

The West is like a person/criminal bound to be executed, that is a few streets and turns away from their final stop and death, but is completely diluting itself that there’s time, that somehow they can get out of it.

It’s ugly and scary, and dark.

Once hope, faith in one’s eternal soul, love, and truth are lost, humans become worse than beasts.

I don’t think that Western Ukraine being split out of the country is the best outcome, although not terrible at all. It has some positive sides like not making Russia deal with the nazis there, but also delays the problem. Russia will need to address it later then. Also, that Mini-Banderistan will be much weaker and essentially not functional. It will create a lot of burden for Poland and the West. So yes, Russia can afford it, but it’s a suboptimal solution. However, I also don’t think that Russia should invest in rolling her tanks there.

I think that at some point we might see a combat activity on NATO’s territory, but I think that for now Russia will only destroy thing on Ukrainian territory, including Western Ukraine. If Polish troops enter Western Ukraine (say to occupy it), they may find their end there.
- iR on March 18, 2022 · at 12:50 pm EST/EDT
  
  “No contingency or preparation, or even the assumption of a different outcome.”
  
  I disagree. Things are progressing according to plan for the EoL, although I guess somewhat behind schedule and with suboptimal outcome. The plan seems to be to burn Europe down to the ground for a third time.
  
  I noticed the delayed Brexit in 2016, they waited to leave before Ukrain train-wreck was properly set up to crash. The way C19 have been handled in the west, particularly in the anglo-saxon part, seems to have been more about regimenting socity for war. Possibly biological. Now just as the pandemic is ending, and large part of the population is still in a induced mass psycosis … they switch over to hatred of russians … as if they where a virus.
  
  I think it is very dangerous to under estimate the forces we are dealing with. They are not stupid, but intelligence without a heart only goes sofar.
Paul on March 17, 2022 · at 8:11 pm EST/EDT

While constant jingoistic rhetoric is being continuously spewed from politicians in Washington and talking heads on corporate media, there is little public support for a US war against Russia. Indeed, poll after poll shows the primary concern of American voters is the economy- inflation and high gas prices, which is reducing the purchasing power of American families on a daily basis. The second concern of voters is the Covid19 pandemic. Foreign policy and supporting Ukraine are far down on the list of voter concerns. Bidens/Harris poll numbers are terrible. From what I have seen, Biden has not gotten any jump in the polls for the Ukraine situation. Starting a war with Russia over Ukraine will guarantee huge loses for Democrats in November. Again, what the average family is worried about is having enough money to pay for gas for their cars, paying rent and buying groceries. We are seeing the accelerating rot/decline of late-stage American capitalism, which has progressed to the point where its very survival requires constant debt monetization (aka money printing) to prop up Wall St., insolvent banks and over-priced real estate. This is becoming increasingly tenuous as this orgy of money printing and debt has created gigantic bubbles in every asset class- ‘everything bubble’, increasing inflation and threatening to derail the dollar’s role as world reserve currency. This situation has been made more acute as Russia, China, India, Iran and other countries accelerate their de-dollarization, which will put increasing downward pressure on the dollar. Once the dollar pops, the US Empire will collapse.
common man on March 17, 2022 · at 8:15 pm EST/EDT

It is not possible to answer in a sensible way.
We don’t know the real capabilities of the Russian army: in terms of war in space, the number of missiles, their anti-missile capabilities, etc…

The plans of the Chinese and Iranians if things get out of hand.

If NATO attacks in view of the very bad domestic conditions in the US, in France, oil will go up to what? NATO’s ability to control the situation so as not to accelerate the collapse of the West is very weak.

And frankly, does NATO have anything credible to oppose the Russians?

Hormuz is closing, oil is at 300 dollars all summer long and Ukraine is no longer the priority of the West.

Russia has many good options. The USA may have none.
- Deplorable Commissar on March 17, 2022 · at 8:42 pm EST/EDT
  
  ” We don’t know the real capabilities of the Russian army: in terms of war in space, the number of missiles, their anti-missile capabilities, etc… ”
  
  Oddly, you can say the same things about the US but somehow your ” magic ball ” tells you ” Russia has many good options. The USA may have none. ” . Strange logic sir.
Sam Bullard on March 17, 2022 · at 8:15 pm EST/EDT

Q1. I’m surprised by this question. Tolerating a Banderastan of any size at any location risks turning the Ukraine into another Syria. Surely Russia already knows the price of tolerance.

Q2. Wars are won on the ground. There can be no place at the Ukraine where a neonazi feels safe. Sure, soften them with air strikes and missiles. But there are no substitutes for tanks and boots on the ground. Stay until the Ukraine is 100% pacified and denazified.

Q3. Attacking the “peacekeepers” on Poland’s soil will allow plausible denials to be made about the nature of the NATO group. The “peacekeepers” should be nailed Iavorov style ideally when half the force has crossed the border, and the missiles should strike both sides of the border.

Part of what makes the current situation risky is the misperception of safety at Poland, UK and the USA. If Russia gives Poland/NATO a well deserved bloody nose, Then maybe some of the war party will wake up before all is lost.

Ukraine sets the standard and the pace for all other locations where Russia wants to return to 1997 conditions.

The US, UK Poland and NATO need to see and feel the fact that constantly poking the bear is bad for one’s health.
Goran on March 17, 2022 · at 8:16 pm EST/EDT

Yes, Iskander/Kinzal therapy.

The collective west does not have the power to think at the moment. Their conscious was chained using hypnosis (no Alex Jones plugs). Hypnosis is, “the state of heightening focus on something”. Militarized as mass psychosis which is hypnosis on a large scale. Mass psychosis is that which has been deployed against the collective western conscious. It as described by Dr. Mattias Desmet is terminated by reality shock. So, the Iskander/Kinzal therapy should bring the masses to reality.

I’ll take it to the Alex Jones level since the fingers are still warm. Entertain this. What if NATO et al is working hard to not have a direct confrontation with Russia? What if Russia is in fact working towards a false flag to force NATO into direct conflict. The previous two sentences can be restated as, “who wants the masses to remain unconscious and who wants them to snap out of it?”
flotsam on March 17, 2022 · at 8:18 pm EST/EDT

Q1: The Russians can’t leave a “Banderastan”. As far as the strictly Ukrainian issue is concerned, this is fine. But the real issues are geopolitical. So a small Banderastan would still leave Russia with a Nazi-run American-supported country close to its borders, which wouldn’t solve anything.

e.g. There are nuclear power plants in Varash and and Netishyn; so such a country would be capable of going nuclear. Nazis with nukes is not something that could be tolerated.

Q2: I think the tanks have to go to the western border, eventually. How the Russians plan to put Ukraine back together as a sane country I really can’t say. But that’s how long the troops have to stay.

Q3: Shooting at anything in NATO territory is a bit too provocative. I doubt the Russians will do so without a good “legal” reason, unless it is a matter of national survival. At least not yet. But if they can find a good enough justification, I’m sure they would relish the opportunity to make the NATO poodles back off.
Louis Robert on March 17, 2022 · at 8:18 pm EST/EDT

Dear Saker,

Question 0: “How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?”

We cannot… and “deconstructing that kind of crap” ends up being only tedious and a source of frustration. Only the Russian government can beat that: a. by having pro-Russian Ukrainians bear witness as to how neo-Nazi criminals have mistreated civilians in the major Ukrainian cities etc… as well as to how grateful they are to have been helped and liberated by Russian forces; b. by having Ukrainian prisoners of war testifying publicly as to what crimes they have committed against both Ukrainian civilians and military. In a nutshell: we need to see 1) that Russian troops are massively supported by Ukrainian citizens, 2) that Ukrainian troops are commonly committing crimes against their fellow civilian citizens.

Question 1: “can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?” — No. Peace following this military operation ought to be global, once and for all. Ukraine as a whole must be neutralized (no EU, no NATO… — non-aligned!), demilitarized, denazified, militarily denuclearized, must have no imperial biological warfare laboratories on its soil, and be officially committed to remaining so, therefore being no threat whatsoever to Russia’s security. In addition it must recognize the two Donbass republics, and Crimea being an integral part of Russia.

Answer to question 2: Russian forces must move resolutely all the way to the western Ukraine border and leave Russian peace keepers there, operating jointly with Ukrainian forces. That operation must be as fast as lightning and continue until peace reigns there supreme.

Answer to question 3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” or other is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, Russia must intervene immediately and not let that force cross into Ukraine under any consideration. If need be, it ought to annihilate that force the moment it is about to cross said border into Ukraine.

To conclude, Russia must now take the international floor, speak up with utmost authority, act ever so rapidly, all the while being in full control of the military theatre on all fronts. Présence and effective communication are not only key, but literally vital.
none on March 17, 2022 · at 8:19 pm EST/EDT

1. Yes – I believe Russia requires Ukraine in it’s entirety, because of pipelines that extend past it to Hungary and then Serbia. The Western region could be federated so that it has relative autonomy, but remain neutral.

2. Yes, after the Central-East is in firm control, the Western portion will simply fall inline – unless NATO steps in to seize territory, but lets hope that is discussed at the highest levels in secret first.

3. Engage only if they cross the border. So that Russia isn’t the “aggressor”.
dan on March 17, 2022 · at 8:22 pm EST/EDT

1) I think the end game could be that each oblast ? becomes its own republic, deciding their own fate, with agreement on neutrality, denazification, demilitarization with security & economic guarantees from russia (russia puts a military base in each with a nice s400/s500/s600 compliment to prevent nato from bombing them).

I think nato might agree with the agreement that Russia back off from mini Banderistan, and allows them to vote to be annexed by Poland.

2) makes sense to keep concentrating on the eastern/southern areas of the ukraine, unless nato attacks and then all gloves off.

3) wait for them to openly cross the border or fire the first missile, etc. more good can be done by focusing on liberating the people currently under nazi military hostage situations.

even if nato defacto sneaks in troops to try to hold routes from lvov to poland, and they get killed in there, if NATO does nothing to react, then thats fine, no need to escalate. lots of foreign mercs already involved.

All this said, I dont think US/UK war hawks will be able to resist trying to go all in on trying to claim some of ukraine for themselves under guise of a “peace keeping” mission. where it goes from there… idk
Eighthman on March 17, 2022 · at 8:23 pm EST/EDT

I think Russia should tell Ukraine in the current negotiations that they should request the EU to allow them to join the Eurasian Union as well and make them a special free trade interface. If nothing else, it would expose the EU’s greed.

I guess Ukraine could be confronted with a dilemma in which they remain as a nation or get turned into protectorates depending on negotiations with Russia.
Uncharted waters on March 17, 2022 · at 8:26 pm EST/EDT

In 2 or 3 months I don’t think Nato will exist in present form EU is bankrupt before the war an on life support {ECB} already buisnesses are forced to close from high energy prices an that is while now ECB is trying to cut back on support an raise rates will send EU into depression, petrodollar is under serious threat with EU in depression USA will follow, which will lead to Digital currency{total control} and end cash, which when world enters another great depression will set stage for RESET’ an world govt. > “you will own nothing and be happy” and on a positive note

His return is coming sooner then we all thought!!
William E on March 17, 2022 · at 8:26 pm EST/EDT

There is no point of this war if Ukraine is not neutralized and landlocked.
Walter on March 17, 2022 · at 8:26 pm EST/EDT

A partition doesn’t solve Russia’s security concerns, merely pushes it a few hundred kilometers west. The US may still want to back a Ukrainian insurgency, but it would make a difference if that is based in a rump Ukraine or from adjoining NATO countries such as Poland, We’ve seen that Poland doesn’t want to expose itself to Russian retaliation.

The US will still control a rump Ukraine. It will still build bases, missile sites, and biolabs, etc. That can’t be satisfactory from a Russian perspective. On the other hand, Russian forces can’t occupy Ukraine indefinitely. A friendly government has to be established; neutral as far as it’s security arrangements for now, but ultimately, Russia needs a friendly Ukraine. Infrastructure, manufacturing and social benefits have to be rebuilt as part of that persuasion. Russia will no doubt need China to help bankroll that.

In the meantime, we can only watch as all sorts of terrorist, extremist scum are headed toward Ukraine, hopefully to put their heads in the noose before the last, largest operational cauldron closes near Uman.
Ghanima on March 17, 2022 · at 8:26 pm EST/EDT

1.) Yes. it can not afford to essentially occupy these territories. Russia must however find a way to prevent Europe to run Banderastan as a Kosovo style protectorate. Such a mini Banderastan would also quickly become a major headache for Europe.
2.) Justice. People can suffer a lot of things, a lack of justice isn’t one of them. As corrupt as Ukraine has been since its inception, there is a lot of history to work through. Keep the Ukrainians busy with their own history, the numerous injustices suffered by ordinary people, their own leadership and the way they sold out their country to Europe, and that in courts. You may very well end up with a new generation of Ukrainians sufficiently inoculated against ‘the west’. In addition, power needs to be decentralized and why not having a good look at the Swiss system? Aside from not having a President, the population having a say on virtually every level of society, the militia system has its charm as well. Banderistan would become an even bigger problem for Europe to finance and justify alongside an actually fairly democratic and just system to the east. A Swiss like militia system, supported by Russia, could, in time, provide sufficient security to the country without having a large Russian footprint in it. And who knows, in time there might even be resistance inside Banderistan itself?
3.) Russia should leave no doubt that it will immediately attack any NATO forces crossing that border. Aside from that, having a look at what the Israelis are doing might be useful. Targeting certain individuals deeply involved in the war against Russia by means that do not rise to a casus belli, might be a way to go. F.I., put a small warhead from a drone into a car full of Bandersitas inside Poland withing 15 km of the border, not enough for NATO to go to war, but a clear enough message nonetheless. From there, you can always escalate to warehouses.
Mo on March 17, 2022 · at 8:29 pm EST/EDT

In my opinion Russia needs to define exactly what they can unilaterally impose barring some kind of settlement with Ukraine. This is most likely already done but will not be declared until positions have hardened.

Clearly Russia cannot border with a banderastan. But on the other hand occupying all of Ukraine is not desirable. Maybe some kind of demilitarized zone 25km in width across the width of Ukraine. One that makes the one in Korea look like the French Riviera? The idea would be to hermetically seal off any kind guerilla campaign. Ukraine is not Afghanistan.

The key thing is, how hard would it be for Russia to impose this new red line?

It’s easy for the west to talk big when they aren’t paying a price. Let’s see if Europe is willing to have a protracted guerilla war if it leads to casualties in their own countries.
imo on March 17, 2022 · at 8:31 pm EST/EDT

Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?

> Reverse Stalin’s action and return it to Poland as is. Then hold the whole of (European) Nato responsible for the future actions of the Poles and their new toxic baby. Stop acting like a guilty younger brother and simply establish a Russian “Munroe Doctrine” — e.g., the USA text: “a principle of Russian policy, originated by President Vladimir Putin, that any intervention by external powers in the politics of the eastern Europeans is a potentially hostile act against Russia.” (or words to that effect)

A new neutral Ukrainian state (plus or minus the western fringe) will have the policing duties to ensure border is respected. In the absence of any international (read USA) arms treaty agreement then simply state what is and is not acceptable on the other side of the border within a specified distance and enforce it with the recent “Iavorov” example. No questions, no warning. Just state and do. The resulting fear will be the new self-governing heuristic in those parts.

“For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment. How likely is that?”

As per my (above) sentiments, there is, in your words a needed “fundamental change in the European collective security [mindset] environment.” Basically, stop negotiating with satrapy poodles as if they were equals. Set the red-lines and conditions, and enforce. Turn off the gas and food if necessary until they come to heel. If the USA wish to bleed their economic resources to support their European colonies, then let them. The future is China + Iran + India + Pakistan + SE Asia. Get on with it. France (& possibly Turkey) aside, the Nato/European peninsular has the future relevance of Portugal.

Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?

> No. Change the Ukraine government, reinstall the pre-2014 president until future elections (including Donbas and Crimea votes if relevant to get a 100% old-Ukraine ‘will of the people’ view), and then point the remaining post-conflict Ukrainian military westwards to clean up/out their own back/front yard etc.

Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?

> Already covered in the ‘red-line’ policy above.

Bottom line: I suggest that the traded western portion to Poland be compensated for by reclaiming an effective connecting corridor with Kaliningrad and the Baltic Sea — and thus NS2+NS1 for LNG shipping etc. V. Putin stood up (Bravo!) and has taken the poison leaving the seat clean for his successor. The Great reconfiguration is on. It is back to the bi-polar world of the 1980’s before the USSR collapse.

The Singaporean state-based-capitalism model works well and fits the mainland PRC model in effective outcomes. Most of SE Asia want the net effects. Get on and show the way. There is no more technology ‘bling’ or western rock music sirens to seduce the Russian people. So, just get on with building the new eurAsian world according to Russian values. Rail transport links from Kaliningrad to the Pacific are therefore the Chinese to exploit. The rebuilding of Ukraine and Syria are there for the PRC to undertake. The energy and wheat fields are there to flow eastwards.

Who gives a flying “F…” about a cold and hungry gender-confused decaying west European degeneration cycle? The crassness of these types is a constant: they will follow the money. At the moment “Nato” equals free lunch with usd$ fiat QE funds forever. Turn that unicorn spigot off and then cold hard reality and responsible sanity will quickly return to European mentation — aka “moral hazard” will diminish rapidly.
Ian Shears on March 17, 2022 · at 8:33 pm EST/EDT

Nazi mentality can only be stopped by a clear show of force. It is the thinking that is the cause. Unfortunately there is no other way when someone has convinced himself that “Mr Putin is X, Y and Z” and ‘I am right’. ‘Everyone should be like me’.

That force is to go to the head and by asymmetric/symmetric responses deal with the source – Western elites. This could be more than Poland UK or US.

Only by blasting the body of elite power centres will the body be dispersed and Nazis have no lines of comms to spread their ideas.
John Stuart on March 17, 2022 · at 8:36 pm EST/EDT

So far Paul Craig Roberts looks like he’s been totally correct
SKovacs on March 17, 2022 · at 8:37 pm EST/EDT

The objectives (demilitarization and denazification, creation of neutral buffer bw. Russia and Nato) are very clear and pursued relentlessly, no matter what hysterics are being played. Redrawing borders, or contemplating attaching various parts of Ukraine to Poland, Hungary and Romania would be another colossal chaos!

Think about it:
– if this would happen, then the Nato borders would come closer to Russia… that is counter to the objectives
– These are also EU members, and the EU is not be equipped with the legal framework of territorial enlargement of member states…
– HU and PL are not in the good graces of the EU; RO seems sort of quietly tolerated
– the current borders of these three countries (HU, PL, RO) are the result of post world war I & II treaties, and not exactly the outline that most people like in the first place.
– any border changes within EU would result in further changes, separatism, (think of Spain, France, etc.)

So just keep the military action within the current borders of Ukraine, stick to the homework at hand, don’t try to bite more than what you can chew, and think about the years after the objectives are achieved…

Nobody gave a strict deadline by which the military homework must be submitted 100% complete!
And most importantly, the global economics and trade relations are being revamped by cool heads with steady hands and much longer term plans than what the western PR fartists can comprehend. So hang in there.
Xafer on March 17, 2022 · at 8:38 pm EST/EDT

I think Russia should not leave its moral highground of keeping its territory safe from missile system so close to ita border that detterrance becomes ineffective.
Any strike besides this would defeat the purpose.
nickels on March 17, 2022 · at 8:39 pm EST/EDT

The Wages of Sin Is Bombs

https://rumble.com/vxprtk-wages-of-sin-is-bombs.html
Nebula Nomad on March 17, 2022 · at 8:40 pm EST/EDT

Cool heads had better prevail. If thermonuclear war is unleashed, nuclear power plants will be melting down and exploding thus making large areas permanently uninhabitable. The Northern Hemisphere will be a no-man’s land. The pygmies of the Amazonian rain forest may become the last vestiges of humanity.
BearDown on March 17, 2022 · at 8:42 pm EST/EDT

I think the partition should be limited to Lviv oblast and parts of Ternopil and Ivano-Franvisk.

The mini Banderstan in the article gives NATO too much land and will be a future threat.

Why should the Russian world give up the Pochaiv Lavra to the Nazis? The russophile Rusyn people? Take back all of historic Russian Podolia/Volyn with Bukovina and Zakarpattia in the west. Isolate the Nazis to the Lviv version of Idlib.

Have the Russian army splitting NATO Slovakia and Romania via the Carpathians; and sitting on the Hungarian plain is invaluable.
Stegiel on March 17, 2022 · at 8:44 pm EST/EDT

Russia has prevented Banderstand aggression. Reconstruction until a peace is impossible. Therefore the territorial integrity of the Ukraine is threatened on all sides as this fake state collapses. Evidently the Russian police action is also intended to make Europe experience refugee flows. Consequences of this for Poland, Germany, France, UK, Hungary remain to be seen. Overall it appears facts on the ground favor the Russian peace process. How long this process requires is up to D.C. It may be also up to Beijing in that Biden and his son and many Democrats are on Chinese payroll. I am a cynic and wonder if China is not in the end pitting Western civilization against itself by promoting decadence as public policy and decadent politicians who cheer it on.
Edward on March 17, 2022 · at 8:45 pm EST/EDT

“How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?”

Actually, there is an answer; the lies Ukraine is telling are clumsy. They might last for a few days or weeks. In the end, they will probably help Russia, especially in zone B. Frankly, I wonder if there are double agents in Kiev promoting this stupidity.

On question 1), it may not matter. If there isn’t a Banderstan in western Ukraine, there will be something similar in Poland.

On 2), I don’t know much about security issues, but Russia probably needs to play hardball with these aggressive neighbors that are hostile to Russia for no good reason by creating consequences. This will probably be in the form of a Western economic crisis. Russia is not directly creating this crisis. The West’s rulers are incompetent enough to do that. Truly, the big threat to the West is not Russia, but the Western governments. The current crisis was completely avoidable, but the West did not want peace. If there are costs such as an economic crisis then they may choose peace.

3) I don’t know much about military issues. However, at that point, war is essentially being declared between NATO and Russia. The issue will become how to avoid nuclear war. I suppose Russia will have some escalation dominance plans.
Kaiama on March 17, 2022 · at 8:46 pm EST/EDT

Until the US gets a bloody nose from an enemy that can fight back on equal terms, they will continue to bully other countries.
Alberto Osejo on March 17, 2022 · at 8:48 pm EST/EDT

My guess is that Russia will be left (very soon) with no other option but strike first. Starting with the places with nuclear weapons, anti-misile systems and military airports.
The “west” does not have any option but continúe loosing or provoking a wider kinetic war.
us/uk will try to keep in europe.
That is my take, and I think we all will live that this month.
- abc123 on March 18, 2022 · at 8:03 am EST/EDT
  
  Russia does not have a strike first policy in its constitution. Only if it is being attacked is Russia prepared to nuke other states.
Jerry Steele on March 17, 2022 · at 8:51 pm EST/EDT

I share your feeling. Enough said.
DannyO on March 17, 2022 · at 8:53 pm EST/EDT

Ukraine needs to be incorporated into the Russian Federation – right up to the Polish and Romanian border. Zelensky must go and the entire country cleansed of mercs and their cia handlers. Just like the push back of the nazis forces of ww2 – it is the only way Russia can eliminate the internal threat created by the US and its nato proxy.
As for Poland and Romania they will quickly see the light when Russian troops control the border crossings with permanent defenses established.
The reality is that the collapse of the USSR has led to this day – regardless of the failings of the Soviet Union – its demise destabilized the entire planet. The globalist force’s hubris is at peak insanity and the western masses do not understand the consequences of a nuclear exchange. Russia must maintain the same resolve that was present in ww2 right up to the Battle of Berlin.

Thank You Saker for all the information and insights.
Deplorable Commissar on March 17, 2022 · at 8:54 pm EST/EDT

Over the years many commentators, on this site and others, explained Russia’s actions or inaction in regards to certain developments based on the theory that Russia wants to keep intact the ” rule based world order ” and its international institutions. This is a fair theory, however I have several questions.

1) It should be fairly obvious by now that almost all international organizations, institutions, and courts have been infiltrated / co-opted by ZioAmerica and its lackeys. This was shown by the recent frenzied attack on all things Russian’s by most of said mentioned groups ( UN, ICC, SWIFT, IOC, etc .. ) How does Russia plan on resolving this ” infection ” ?

2) Most likely Russia / Putin will be accused with fake war crime charges, additionally they Russia will probably lose the case against it concerning the shoot down of the passenger plane over the Ukraine years ago. Not to mention any other charges and court cases. We all know Russia will reject any claims against it by these international institutions. We also know that no Russia will ever be allowed to stand trial at the Hague. However, wont this contradict Russia’s stand on adhering to the ” rule based world order ” and its international institutions ? How will they explain this seeming ” hypocrisy ” to the rest of the world ?
Malthus on March 17, 2022 · at 8:55 pm EST/EDT

Putin and his military experts said they do not want the NATO bases on Poland and Roumania Why would they agree to mini Ukraine around the western parts, that will be stocked up with NATO arsenal? That does not make sense.

And let us not forget Lukashenko. I think he will strongly object to any mini Ukraine full of Nazis south of his border. He has enough trouble with defending the western one, now he will have to think about defending the southern one. Belarus may not have as much military agency as Russia has to impose the terms of an armistice ( I do not think it will be any peace treaty for years to come, it will be more like the between North and South Korea.
Still, I do not not discount Lukashenko’s ability to impose his view to the Russians, even if that means marching his own troops into the battle. If he gets 50km secularist zone in the north of mini Ukraine, he might agree. Otherwise I do not see him being on board with mini Nazi state at his southern border. With the Lithuanians/NATO in the north, with Poland/NATO in the west and mini Ukraine.NATO in the south… how safe would you feel? And say what you want about Luka , however the man has balls and guts.
I think it will not be the military weapons in the end that will dictated the terms of the armistice but the economic ones. With no natural gas, no oil, no fertilizers ( Belarus and Russia account for about 40% of the global supply) there will be not food, no heat and petrol will be very expensive. The west will be forced to come to the table in max 9 months and certainly before next winter. I think Putin will keep the south east and the south ( historic Russian lands) and will negotiate about the rest of the country.
John on March 17, 2022 · at 8:58 pm EST/EDT

War goals shouldn’t be modified in any way as this would increase Western rethoric regarding Russian “aggressive stance”.
Ukraine must be neutralised, de-nazified and then locked between West and East.
In truth, no one wants to pay for Ukraine and the country has been a financial black hole for some years.
Escalation of the conflict is the worst possible scenario (even in a non-nuclear scenario) as this would trespass casus belli from Russia upon Ukraine.
European security architecture is indeed the core political issue that needs addressing and the USA will certainly do anything to temper any potential progress.
s.a.t. on March 17, 2022 · at 8:59 pm EST/EDT

https://i.postimg.cc/mZvLRN0r/sketch-1647564332950.png

-West ukraine for western oriented ukrainians.
-East ukraine for eastern ukrainians that want independence and good relations with russia.
-new Russian militarised land with lots of defensive layers (war trophy but paid with 300 billion dollar currency reserves or a countersanction pick what you like)

we want to see a border with a high wall, a deep ditch, a canal, a minefield, lots of airdefense and early warning radars and roads leading only to russia.

Lets face it this is needed to bring a piece for all and peace for all.
Light Years From Home on March 17, 2022 · at 8:59 pm EST/EDT

BTW regarding all the posts about turning off the energy spigots, that’s a lever, if war goes well for Russia they will leverage gas, if it goes badly, they will leverage gas, for now they wont. Plus, Brand Russia even back in Soviet era was about no nonsense, absolute non political, non moral, non rules base, rock solid reliability when it came to business. Mutually beneficial long term contracts, no spot market crap, no better deal anywhere. You can see they are trying to protect this hard earned integrity as a business partner. USA would love for them to throw it all away. They may have too, but it’ll be as an absolute last resort.
Roger G. Mattingly on March 17, 2022 · at 9:01 pm EST/EDT

It’s time for Russia to play hardball. First, she cuts off all gas, oil and whatever else is being exported to the west. And then she refuses to provide more until all of her reserves have been returned. Next, she gives the US and NATO 7 days to pack up and return to Western Europe. After that, she fires missiles into their Eastern European bases without mercy, destroying everything. Then, she fires missiles into every bio lab and destroys them all, no warning. NATO is then warned that any planes, ships, trucks, tanks, kites, bicycles, riders on horseback, skateboarders and tricycles which approach Russian borders will be destroyed. Russia should convince the West that the leaders of Russia have gone totally insane and will end the world for everyone at the drop of a hat. There is nothing more persuasive than having your enemies fear you so much that they pee their pants whenever you approach.
- imo on March 17, 2022 · at 9:32 pm EST/EDT
  
  “And then she refuses to provide more until all of her reserves have been returned.”
  
  There is no need for this action.
  All Russia needs do is pay any and all foreign debt obligations from their impounded reserves until the balance reduces to zero. There is no actual money — except gold and precious metals/items. It is all just double-entry book-keeping digital spreadsheet numbers. Globalism is dead and now it is back to trade based commerce on pragmatic [Chinese] principles. Thank goodness these 3-4 decades of faux western globalised ideology is coming to an end.
- joey_n on March 18, 2022 · at 5:01 pm EST/EDT
  
  There is nothing more persuasive than having your enemies fear you so much that they pee their pants whenever you approach.
  
  And I thought the USA was notorious for that sort of thing.
whataliar on March 17, 2022 · at 9:03 pm EST/EDT

wait until they cross.
John Smith on March 17, 2022 · at 9:05 pm EST/EDT

Having trouble establishing factual data which , in these days, by wide and varying analysis ( this too comes with Overton risks.) Your blog provides a key portion; and thankyou. I was amazed by Western analysis that Russia was failing to move fast enough. How fast is necessary depends on your objective and your opposition. There is no opposition comming. Russia has much shorter lines of communication. Javelins and Stingers are certainly good weapons but will not win a 150k vs 150k war. The Ukraine has four large cities and , at least in the east, they are interconnected by roads etc. So like the military they are on the geographical periphery. In between the roads are under whose fire control? The Ukrainians seem to be fighting well but in desperation. They retreat and rally where? How do they not sustain big losses in this retreat. The command and control was knocked out on day 1. No this will go slow until the Ukrainians finally give up their defensive and it will collapse fast
jiri on March 17, 2022 · at 9:06 pm EST/EDT

Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?

No. The denazification and demilitarisation must happen and it must happen as part of the larger new European security structure.

Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?

At the moment there is no need to go all the way west unless Z refuses to negotiate anything and chooses to have his army captured. In this case they will have to stay until a new political structure is established in Ukraine and/or a new security structure is established in Europe.

Lastly, there is the issue of border.

Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?

For PR reasons and for technically legal reasons it is better to wait until they cross the border. 100 metres this way or that way makes little difference in military terms. Either way, what needs to be established conclusively is that NATO is a paper tiger and totally useless and that despite being in NATO the US will NEVER put its soldiers/citizens in danger to defend 3B+P or anyone else. For this reason and only for this reason an attack on Poland soil will make more sense.
Freedom on March 17, 2022 · at 9:08 pm EST/EDT

I don’t pay any attention to American or Western news, it will only cause further unnecessary anxiety and so far detached from ‘reality’.

Personally, I think all this rhetoric from the West (mostly the US, not so much the EU) is part of there psychological warfare against Russia. Putin, nor the Kremlin get drunken over CNN broadcasts designed to distract the mentally dead.

Thé US population will not stomach huge body bags of dead soldiers (were not talking hundreds but in the thousands) of the first few days of intervention.

L’est we forget, Putin already warned from the beginning of the War, that any country that intervenes will experience nothing like they have before in there life time.

I would take that as a defining moment, when history will forever change.
Dan Lynch on March 17, 2022 · at 9:14 pm EST/EDT

1) I don’t think it is feasible to “liberate” Western Ukraine. I’ve never set foot in Ukr but hear that the Nazis are the majority in W. Ukr, so is Russia supposed to wipe out the entire population there?

2a) Better option perhaps a loose federation of Ukraine statelets, bound by a constitution that forbids militarization or Nato-ization. My take on history is that loose federations ultimately fail but nonetheless may buy some time.

2b) address the root causes that attract people to fascism — address the unemployment and address the economic inequality. Provide a generous safety net, preferably from Russia. If pensioners in Ukraine start getting pension checks from Russia, that will buy a certain amount of loyalty. Ditto health care, maternity leave, etc.. Ya, I know Russia does not want to pay to rebuild Ukr but that cost has to be weighed against the cost of endless war. To help pay for these programs, nationalize the assets of the Ukr oligarchs.

3) let NATO fire the first shots, even if it means Ru takes some losses. Then Russia will have the moral high ground to retaliate. I am not a fan of pre-emptive strikes.
Dr. George W Oprisko on March 17, 2022 · at 9:16 pm EST/EDT

The goals of Russia are well articulated….

1. Neutral
2. Dis Armed
3. De- Nazified
4. In it’s entirety.
5. NATO must not intervene.

So, the answer to your question …..

Operation Barbarossa II crested on the resistance of the DPR/LPR during 8 harrowing years.
Operation Bagration II is in progress…

Furthermore…. Russia has not given up it’s broader objectives….
1. Protect Russians whereever they live…. the Balts??? Georgia??? Moldova???
2. Roll back NATO to 1997…

What don’t you understand???

INDY
Charles Lamb on March 17, 2022 · at 9:16 pm EST/EDT

Thank you for your work & passion Saker. You are a wildflower in a dessert.

Qu 1 :- in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated.

Syria is the obvious parallel here. The solution was to offer the Takfiris a way out & bus them to Idleb (I know this seems unjust). However this saved thousands of civilian lives in Syria. Concentrate the Fascists together with no-body to victimise & they will likely turn upon each other (as the Takfaris did in Idleb). It would remain complicated but manageable.

Qu 2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?

No, the solution is ultimately going to be political. Liquidate the Eastern pocket (so that the Pentagon and the higher ups in the European military see it for what it really is, an absolute Ukranian route) and ‘get out of dodge’. The Straussian’s are salivating about another Afghanistan, its vital not to give them that.

Qu 3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?

To strike into a Nato country would be very foolish I think. If VP or Lavrov say something, we trust them, this would break that trust (what is the point in a victory if you become no better than your enemies to achieve it ?). The Western media is nauseating but it does not reflect the thinking of the military higher ups currently IMO. If it did this would probably have already gone nuclear. Such a strike however would allow the Western propaganda machine to become absolutely rabid (well more than they already are) and a lot of their political puppets would jump onboard. I doubt even the adults in the room could prevent such an escalation.

This is a very stressful time, a very dangerous time for humanity. Have faith. Its always Darkest before the dawn !.
Dave on March 17, 2022 · at 9:20 pm EST/EDT

I’ll only speak to Q3. Europeans, especially Finns and the Baltic states, are I think understandably nervous seeing the Russian move into Ukraine, and wondering if they will be next. Missiles into Poland would only increase their fear, their desire to be in NATO, and likely Western sympathy toward that desire.

Russophobes the the US and Europe, and warmongers in general, would rejoice at a missile attack which would move public opinion toward support for a counterattack (which it would be at that point) on Russia. The media are able to stir up hatred for Russia and sympathy for poor Ukraine, but I don’t think many Americans (outside of the Deep State and the military-industrial complex) want a war with Russia. One factor in Trump’s victory in the 2016 Republican primary was that more or less all the other candidates seemed to have a crazy desire to start a war with Russia in Syria. We’ve had enough wars over the last 20 years, and I don’t think there is any rational reason for particular enmity between the US and Russia.

Missiles into Poland might produce a feel-good moment for those weary of NATO’s and the Western Media’s behavior, but I don’t think it would be beneficial for any of Russia, Ukraine, Europe, or the US in the long term. Blow up munitions or mercenaries once they enter Ukraine, but don’t risk WWIII.
Figmund Sreaud on March 17, 2022 · at 9:21 pm EST/EDT

Perhaps of interest here, a screed by a fellow who calls himself Dr.D., … but a snip first to whet the appetite:

”Russia is going to crush the whole West. But that’s not Russia’s fault: the entire West is so rotten it’s barely been standing for decades now, and certainly since ’08.”

The West Is at War with Itself
https://www.theautomaticearth.com/2022/03/the-west-is-at-war-with-itself/

Best,

F.S.
Markos on March 17, 2022 · at 9:26 pm EST/EDT

Russia needs to continue to make the point that any NATO forces that enter the Ukraine will be targets. The best way to do that is to continue to identify weaapons and mercenary concentrations in west Ukraine and destroy them.. The fate of Ukraine, must be decided now by Russia and whoever is left alive in the Ukraine. No one in NATO wants a major war with Russia to spread , but the NATO powers fear it more.They have more to lose and they have already forced Russia into war – for Russia the threat of war has already passed into its consequence. The actual leaders of the NATO bloc -its finance capitalists – know this too well. They will seek to profit from murder and chaos but they also know that New york and Washington can be vaporized from Russia, and there is the China risk…For all their blowing and posturing they fear drawing China into war.That can still happen if they force it.
dave on March 17, 2022 · at 9:27 pm EST/EDT

BREAKING: Ukraine Presidential advisor announces ongoing negotiations to create a new Military Alliance outside NATO between Poland, Ukraine, Czech Republic & Slovakia “to make sure Ukraine will not be left alone on the battlefield again”
JustTruth on March 17, 2022 · at 9:27 pm EST/EDT

Don’t read the MSM crap, and focus on what is important. Its all propaganda designed to trigger your emotions. IGNORE it and do constructive, productive things with your day. That is what Putin does. You can’t change the shrill voices of psychotic soulless humans who are self destructing.
Woogs on March 17, 2022 · at 9:35 pm EST/EDT

We should all realize that Russia has consulted extensively with China regarding “how far to go”. China is positioning itself “above the fray” so to speak, while also maintaining a relationship with Russia that “has no limits”. Russia will not go rogue on its partner and behave rashly in Ukraine.

That being said, this event seems to be serving as a coming out party for Zone b. The EAEU plus China grouping is seeking a new international currency. India and China are making efforts to play nice with each other. Looks like the Quad is dead. Saudi may begin taking the Yuan for oil sales. SA and UAE refused to take Biden’s phone calls. In short, a New World Order is emerging and it ain’t the West’s version.

While all eyes are on Ukraine, the whole world is beginning to reorient itself. I wonder just how much of this was gamed out in advance. Regardless of whether or not Putin’s launch into Ukraine was pre-planned or just a recognition that the time was right, it is serving as the opening gambit of a global reorientation. In the game of geo-political chess, it’s obvious who sees the 65th square and who doesn’t.
Richard Steven Hack on March 17, 2022 · at 9:36 pm EST/EDT

“How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?”

You’re not. Accept it. I’ve been saying for the last twenty years that everything people think they need to do to defeat the states of the world and their agendas are wasting their time.

It’s one thing to be “correct” about the facts of a situation. It’s another to be able to do anything about it.

My favorite phrase, which I stole from actor Xander Berkeley on the CW TV show “Nikita”, is “That ain’t gonna happen.”

Whatever you think you can do to contribute to the defeat of…whatever it is that bothers you about the world…”That Ain’t Gonna Happen.”

I don’t care if it’s “climate change”, or “WWIII”, or “economic depression” or, as preppers say, “SHTF”… nothing you do is going to change that outcome one iota.

Now, if you’re prepared to commit assassinations of a large number of the people running this world, or large-scale terrorism like 9/11, maybe you can have some sort of impact, although even that is unlikely to change the overall direction of things. Because the overall direction of things is the accumulation of the efforts of everyone involved in every society – or at least every major society – of the world. It’s not affected seriously by the actions of one individual, unless that individual has the power to mobilize many, many other individuals or forces.

And everyone likes to think they’re a Ghandi or a Martin Luther King or Jesus or whoever, who can mobilize those forces. Sorry, but 99.99% of you aren’t. You don’t have the historical circumstances, the eloquence or the intellectual development or the resources putting you in those ranks. Putin is in those ranks. Biden is in those ranks. You’re not.

So everything you’d like to see happen in the world (unless you’re on the side of those ruining the world): ‘That ain’t gonna happen.”

Abby Hoffman spent his entire life fighting The Man. He committed suicide once he realized his entire life added up to no effect whatsoever.

What you should focus on is: “What can I do to survive it?” To do that, you have to know the facts of what is going on in the world. So being factually correct is important. That’s why I visit sites like this. But I don’t delude myself that this site or any other site is in a position to “beat” what is going on in the world.

It’s not. You’re not. I’m not. Deal.
- simon crow on March 17, 2022 · at 10:35 pm EST/EDT
  
  Very eloquent (slow clap).
  Its a theoretical exercise prompted by our gracious host.
  No one here thinks their comment will change the world.
  No one here comes to be lectured either.
  - Richard Steven Hack on March 18, 2022 · at 12:02 am EST/EDT
    
    Wasn’t a lecture. Just keeping it real. Why ask a question if you don’t want an answer?
    
    My response is mostly rhetorical at that. I don’t expect anyone to change their behavior because of anything I say, either. Actions matter. Consequences matter. Everything else is mental masturbation. Although as I say, being “factually correct” is important. Being seen to be factually correct is also important, if less so.
- Alabama on March 18, 2022 · at 7:25 am EST/EDT
  
  A theoretical fact is if one person extended the lives of many, then that same person in practice could also take those same lives needless of how many they are, or the cause from which the taking is derived.
  
  So to those who believe in the aint gonna happen scenario only delude and align themselves with the ones ruining the world, usually hard core American nazified democrats.
TRM on March 17, 2022 · at 9:40 pm EST/EDT

Partition was always the practical solution/goal. The west is not to be trusted on any agreement. Russia will control up to the river plus Odessa region in the south and Kiev region in the north.
A large buffer of land mines along any western border with immediate artillery return fire for any attacks from the west.
Wait until they enter the theater of operation. Do NOT attack them on NATO territory. That is what they want.
Whatevs on March 17, 2022 · at 9:40 pm EST/EDT

8-Year CIA Program Helped Provoke Russian Invasion: Report

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/8-year-cia-program-helped-provoke-russian-invasion-report
jojo on March 17, 2022 · at 9:45 pm EST/EDT

3 US instructors neutralized in the Donetsk People’s Republic

During the liberation of the Marinka settlement from Ukrainian militants, the stronghold of the 1st mechanized battalion of the 54th brigade was destroyed, during the inspection of which samples of foreign weapons were found: NLAW, SMAW grenade launcher, AN / TPQ-48 radar , as well as personal effects of American instructors who directly participated in the fighting on the side of the Ukrainian national battalions.

In a backpack near the remains of ONE of the militants, a US Tennessee flag was found, as well as other elements that allowed the dead to be identified, such as: Capt. Michael Hawker (Cpt. Michael Hawker) , Lt. Logan Shrum (Lt. Logan Shrum) and Lt. Cruz Toblin (Lieutenant Cruz Toblin), who came to Ukraine to kill civilians in Donbass in 2018.

https://www.anoncandanga.com/3-us-instructors-neutralized-in-the-donetsk-peoples-republic/
simon crow on March 17, 2022 · at 9:48 pm EST/EDT

Something that Russia has, and that no longer exists in Zone A is Honour. You cannot have honour without truth. You cannot have honour when you tell lies. So whatever Russia does it must continue to do so with honour as it has been demonstrating thus far. This is how you win hearts and minds (at least mine anyway) and what Mr. Paul Greg Roberts does not seem to get in his criticism of Russia’s restraint that was highlighted in a previous thread.

The Americans/Nato think they can win hearts and minds with money, power, propaganda and sheer violence and mayhem. It may win a battle or two, but not a war. They have devolved into liars, thugs and mercenaries. They have no honour as those poor kids sent to Vietnam found out and morale collapsed against an inferior enemy, but an enemy with honour defending itself.

That being said, Russia’s action in the Ukraine is defensive in nature and so must be its future actions. If that defence requires going into western Ukraine, so be it. If that defence requires going beyond Ukraine, so be it. It must not be the aggressor. It must use Its power defensively like a judo master would do and not over extend beyond Its honour.

The Americans have already set a precedent in its war on terror going way beyond their borders in defence. Trouble is, they were lying their asses off and were really on a conquest to loot and plunder as everybody knows with half a brain. President Putin has already indicated that those responsible for any aggression on Its people will be held accountable.

Those responsible for this war of aggression against Russia do not live in the Ukraine. Go after the corrupt oligarchs wherever they live. Let them look over their shoulders the rest of their lives and if need be take it the heart of the devil himself.
Cyric Vigilius on March 17, 2022 · at 9:51 pm EST/EDT

You really think the UK and Poland wants war? They must know the truth about how Ukraine is defeated and Russia has not committed its best forces. I think the Poles have been wise not to get involved in a war to date.
Cthulhu on March 17, 2022 · at 9:52 pm EST/EDT

Russia should take all of Ukraine at all costs or the whole world may pay when the western psychos put themselves in a position where they think they can get a nuclear first strike. Either that or do another Cuban missile crisis but this time don’t pull the missiles out until NATO dissolves.
tobi999 on March 17, 2022 · at 9:53 pm EST/EDT

honestly, the best way is to take over as less territory as necessary as you have to guard it, Russia and pro-Russian troops must be sure their backs are free of backstabbing terrorists. they should carve out as much land as needed and from a third republic? repeat what they did on Crimea, and secure its borders, take as much good land and resources and industries as possible, and give the shithole to NATOSTAN
mike on March 17, 2022 · at 9:55 pm EST/EDT

The Russians need to not give the Polish or the West one inch of Ukrainian land. Put the NAZIs to work building a strong wall / fence anywhere Ukraine borders a western state. Russia proclaims that the land, air and sea borders of Ukraine are closed. Period. Then put the NAZIs to work building a labor camp where they can toil away for the rest of their lives. Don’t talk about it – do it.
Chornyvolk on March 17, 2022 · at 9:58 pm EST/EDT

If anybody has any doubts as to why these damn Nazis have to be killed please watch this.
https://youtu.be/cLyECK43IDg
comrade simba on March 17, 2022 · at 9:59 pm EST/EDT

I’m a nobody, but the specific operations that Putin clearly stated at the beginning of this need to be carried out in full. Anything bigger than an AK or one swastika tattoo remaining on any individual in “the ukraine” means my personal faith that the Russian people will be secure from western evil goes out the window, along with my championing Putin himself in the face of extreme opposition amongst my circle of friends and acquaintances.

I am continuing to stay hopeful that in the final analysis the slow steady civilian saving prosecution of the conflict will not have cost too much a greater number of russian soldier’s lives than a fuck ’em, flatten it, and go home would have.

I also am smart enough to keep in mind Putin could well have another stunner move that leaves us all in awe. So I’ll wait, though I’m feeling the ukies are beating on the glass of the window of mercy. Shoulda dropped weapons when your command and control poofed.
Richard Steven Hack on March 17, 2022 · at 10:02 pm EST/EDT

My answers to your three questions:

“The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia), will probably take the western Ukraine. The pretext will be some kind of “Russian atrocity”. NATO will call it a peacekeeping/peacemaking operation.

I suspect that the Poles and NATO will not do this. Instead, they will try to use their CIA-created “mercenary army” – which is already falling apart by all accounts – to intervene in Western Ukraine in a “Save the Nazis” campaign based on the “humanitarian crisis” once the emigrants to Poland become unsustainable.

Needless to say, this will fail disastrously. Then the US and NATO will have to make the decision whether to intervene or not. The question then becomes: Intervene with what? NATO has the bulk of US forces in Germany, not Poland. Russia can easily inflict huge damage on the so-called “Rapid Reaction Force.” Russia will not allow the up to 70,000 or more US troops to assemble themselves on the Polish border without warning the US and NATO off.

And then there’s the THIRTY NATO war games that prove to the smarter-if-not-wiser heads in the Pentagon that Russia will win against any conceivable NATO operation.

So the question then devolves to: Can the Pentagon convince Biden that it will be suicidal to take on Russia in Western Ukraine? Or will the neocons and public pressure to “do something” override the Pentagon? This is really the only question that matters in this whole affair.

“Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?”

No, absolutely not. I agree with Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov. Russia will go to the Polish border, seize Lvov, find and deport everyone associated with the neo-Nazi parties and militias (the latter will be arrested and either tried for war crimes or executed or both.) Russia will then get a new Ukraine government cleansed of neo-Nazis, then get a new Constitution banning the neo-Nazi parties and militias. Once that is done, and the new Ukrainian police services backed by Russian intelligence counters any neo-Nazi underground movements, whether CIA supported or not, there will be no political influence in Ukraine by the neo-Nazi organizations.

This is all Russia cares about in its “de-Nazification”: get a pro-Russian government with no Nazi influence. Russia doesn’t care about eliminating everyone with a neo-Nazi bent in Ukraine. That’s impossible. Just get rid of their ability to have influence.

“For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment. How likely is that? I would say that not likely at all for the foreseeable future.”

Agreed. That is the project for which the Ukraine invasion is just a minor step one.

“Thus any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run (as much as Poland or Estonia).”

Agreed.

“If that mini-Banderastan can be veritably disarmed from any weapon systems capable of threatening Russian, then maybe something can be negotiated.”

Why negotiate? Identify who are the neo-Nazi/nationalist influencers and simply deport them. Ban the parties and militias. What’s left? Disgruntled nationalist with no influence on the government or the rest of Ukraine. No ability to use violence to achieve their agendas without running into some Chechens working for the Russian intelligence operations in Ukraine.

“Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?”

See above. The tanks only need to stay long enough to insure the new Ukrainian political operations are in progress and that there is no evidence that US forces in Poland are intending some sort of “counter-invasion.” Not really a problem.

“Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?”

Wait. Crossing the border is a valid casus belli for a Russian reaction. Striking inside a NATO country is a casus belli for Article V. Besides, it’s pointless. NATO knows that any force crossing the border is going to be hit. They can’t do it without “preparing the ground.” Which means direct NATO attack by air force, cruise missiles, etc. on Russian forces, Russian AD, etc. Otherwise they’re just sacrificing the NATO force to Russian air and missile attacks.

The only way they do this is if they are directly intending a nuclear strike on Russia. There may be some crazies around the White House and Brussels who want that, but cooler heads are likely to prevail. But if Russia strikes first across the border, those cooler heads get drowned out.

As I said above, I DO expect them to try their CIA “mercenary army” first. That is not a direct NATO move against Russia, at least in PR terms. So Russia can destroy them without starting WWIII. The question then is what does NATO do? I submit: nothing.

“To tell you the truth, I am increasingly becoming convinced that until Russia fires a few Iskanders/Kalibrs into NATO territory (Poland or Romania for example) the Eurolemmings will not come back to their senses.”

They don’t have to. What needs to happen is the Pentagon puts it foot down. It just did that with the no-fly zone and the Polish MiGs nonsense. I believe they will continue to do so. The question mark is: how stupid, inept or disoriented is Biden? How far will the Pentagon go to avoid WWIII?

Remember Napoleon: A general must be willing to resign his commission rather than serve as the instrument of his country’s destruction. I think there are still military people in the Pentagon who understand that a war with Russia means the destruction of the US and EU.

In any event, as I said in my earlier post in this thread, all we can do is look after our own survival. We have no control. All we can hope is that someone does.
- simon crow on March 17, 2022 · at 11:14 pm EST/EDT
  
  I appreciate your comment and have learned from other comments you have made out there. You give much of yourself and I wish there were more like you out there. And yes, I agree with you that it has become a matter of survival for us in Zone A. When asked last fall by a fellow lock down protester what I was planning to do in the coming months, I replied “survive the winter.”
  - Richard Steven Hack on March 17, 2022 · at 11:44 pm EST/EDT
    
    I’m not sure the world would survive more of me out there. :-) But thanks for your reply.
Billy on March 17, 2022 · at 10:06 pm EST/EDT

The first and foremost task is to sort this out Andrei

Rate hikes are bullish for a currency?

It is a necon myth.

I’ll skip over the obvious examples that disprove that (Turkey, Venezuela, Argentina, etc.). Look at the pound today. 3rd rate hike by BoE and pound just keeps sinking. Inflation keeps on rising.

New Zealand hiked interest rate 3 times New Zealand $ went from 72 to 65. Inflation keeps on rising.

Rate hikes are price hikes.

Russia hiked rates from 8% to 15%

Inflation is moving higher and will follow the interest rate. Ruble went from 130 to 95.

Rate hikes don’t fight inflation they are inflationary.

The increased cost of credit gets passed into consumers via higher prices.

Those that hold savings earn more interest giving them more money to spend.

The spot and forward price for a non perishable commodity imply all storage costs, including interest expense. Therefore, with a permanent zero-rate policy, and assuming no other storage costs, the spot price of a commodity and its price for delivery any time in the future is the same. However, if rates were, say, 10%, the price of those commodities for delivery in the future would be 10% (annualized) higher. That is, a 10% rate implies a 10% continuous increase in prices, which is the textbook definition of inflation! It is the term structure of risk free rates itself that mirrors a term structure of prices which feeds into both the costs of production as well as the ability to pre-sell at higher prices, thereby establishing, by definition, inflation.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/there-is-no-right-time-fo_b_5995896

Russia central bank needs to get on top of it and start slashing the interest rate. As close to zero as possible.

Then work out the plan for Ukraine.
Chris on March 17, 2022 · at 10:14 pm EST/EDT

Q 1: No.
Q 2: No. Yes, and stay. It will take twenty years to denazify. But you must have atomic missiles next to Slovakia and Poland.
Q 3: Wait until they come in and then… otherwise you will loose.
Karl luck on March 17, 2022 · at 10:22 pm EST/EDT

I fundamentally believe in what Putin always said: To de-nazisify, and de-militaryize Ukraine. To me that means to destroy as much as can be done, but the eastern region will go back to it rightfull borders. All of Western eukraine will be hit with precision mssiles, and the east will be protected by weaponry. They will grow back greatly, and the west will be left for their “masters” to fix.

Phase 2: Russia will then tell Zion Inc to get back to the 1997 borders or face complete anhillation. The economic pain in the west is coming, and the Zionist financial cabal with it.
The Russians are playing a long game that few of us understand, but I see the reasoning, and they are masters. Propaganda is only for the 97% programed illiterates..

In regards to China denigrated, by the web site. China lost millions, like Russia in Ww2, but survived, after many millions killed. No body forgets. Not in the middle East or any where else. You don’t know that people all over this world has revenge on their soul.

The Chinese built a great Wall to keep foreigners out and Invaders. Yes, they made fortunes out of the Zionist financial system, beat them at their own game. But they will never betray Russia, for they know that is where truth lays.It was all going to end someday, but I never suspected so soon.

. P.S. Biden will get be his plea to China to come out against Russia; and it will be in polite deplomatic terms: “Go screw yourselves”!
sorcerer on March 17, 2022 · at 10:24 pm EST/EDT

Andrei, if you read my previously comments you should know what I said about your third question. Russians need not to bomb those NATO bases in Poland and Romania but to nuke them. Game over. Chek mate.
Rusty on March 17, 2022 · at 10:28 pm EST/EDT

Part of the challenge is that the US neo-cons think they stole The Ukraine fair and square (ref. Victoria Nuland’s 2014 speech to the National Press Club), but they want to pretend that they don’t rule the place. These people will do and say anything to retain their prize, short of being honest.

I’m surprised by how strident Poland seems to be. I hadn’t realized they have a deep fascist vein. I think a steady publicity campaign to their people pointing out genocide in the Donbass, and comparing the methods – side by side – with the work of the 3rd Reich, might destabilize the grip of the Polish Nazis.

The Western power structure has no desire or incentive to cooperate peacefully and constructively. That’s unfortunate.

I expect the West intends to create a long term insurgency in The Ukraine. They don’t want peace, and destruction on their neighbor’s land costs them little and serves their agenda and their lust for vengeance.

I see two ways to settle this.

a.) Take the western oblasts, and seal the border to the west. Expect infiltration with arms, and use this part of the country as a hot defensive field in depth.
b.) Create immense pain for the guiding western protagonists elsewhere on the board (outside of Ukraine) for as long as any insurgency operates in Ukraine.

BTW, Russia needs to treat Ukraine as a crime scene. Publish all evidence, and conduct trials in Donbass. Make it plain what a cesspool the Ukraine was turned into by the West. Allow the West to send defense lawyers if they want. Allow western media to broadcast using full video, and require that all translations and editing be done in Ukraine under laws criminalizing lying.
willi uebelherr on March 17, 2022 · at 10:41 pm EST/EDT

Dear Andrei,

the goal of the Russian military operation is a peaceful Ukraine through demilitarization and denazification. Racial hatred and ethnic exclusion, both elements of Western European culture, must be ended. This applies to all of Ukraine.

The Russian military operation stabilizes the people in Ukraine who want to live freely and peacefully. So it would be fatal to limit this to one part of Ukraine. All people in this region have the right to live freely and peacefully.

I suppose this realization will take some time and that is why the slow way of the liberation associations in Ukraine is so valuable and helpful. If people have been exposed to this crazy propaganda for years, then change does not happen in a few days. As a German I know that very well.

Military criteria do not apply here, because the goal is the free self-determination of the people in Ukraine. And only they can build a free and peaceful Ukraine. This can never be forced. As a German I know that very well, too.

with kind regards, willi
Asuncion, Paraguay