Today, I begin with this: something I would call a good summary of CNN’s wishful thinking
This has everything!
- Putin is a “pure thug”
- Russians are indiscriminately murdering civilians en masse
- “Ex-KGB” “agent” says what his CIA handlers tell him to
- Klitschko is as verbally clever as he always is
- China is about to screw Russia over
- Drones threaten NATO (apparently including Ukie ones?)
- A retired colonel opines that Russia is running out of manpower
- US casualties in Kiev
And against this deluge of lies, Bernhard at Moon of Alabama does a superb job deconstructing that kind of crap, see here: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/03/neo-nazis-in-ukraine-fake-incidents-to-gain-more-western-support.html.
But it feels like such an uneven and lopsided battle…
How are we, private individuals with no government or corporate support supposed to beat this?
I guess we will fight for as long as God gives us strength.
Anyway,
There were a few cities liberated today, here is the machine translation of Boris Rozhin’s report:
1. Mariupol. The cleanup of the city continues successfully. Advanced units reach the central areas, the enemy is gradually pushed back to Azovstal. Civilians continue to leave the city. The military on the ground are talking about the timing of the liberation of Mariupol – 4-7 days.
2. Ugledar. The village has not yet been officially taken, but to the north of it the troops are already advancing to Bogoyavlenka, with a subsequent movement to Kurakhovo. Prechistovka is taken from the west of Ugledar, which creates prerequisites for both movement to the north and for a U-turn to Velikaya Novoselka.
3. Maryinka-Avdiivka. There are no particularly serious advances yet. It is impossible to overcome the enemy’s powerful fortified areas with a rush. Aviation and artillery are trying to make the task easier, but so far the cumulative effect of multi-day strikes has not yet been achieved.
4. Gorlovka. Novotoretsk remained for the DPR. The APU counterattacks to retake the village were repulsed. Tomorrow, perhaps, the advance will begin either to Novoselka-2, or in the direction of New York.
5. LNR. They took Rubezhnoye, the enemy withdrew to Severodonetsk, where persistent street fighting continues. Lisichansk is not being actively stormed yet. The liberation of these cities is a matter of time. Fighting continues in the western part of Popasnaya, the city is not yet fully controlled by the LPR, the enemy stubbornly clings to it.
6. Kharkiv. Active fighting to the east of the city. There is no information confirming the occupation of even a part of Chuguev by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation yet. In Izyum, the enemy continues to defend themselves in the southern part of the city and tries to unblock the road in the Kamenka area, where the fighting is going on near the Izyum-Slavyansk highway. The front from the north is gradually shifting towards Slavyansk.
7. Kiev. Attempts of the APU to be active on the Vyshgorod-Gostomel-Bucha line ended with serious losses of the APU in people and equipment. A serious counteroffensive failed. It is noted that the Western grouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continues to methodically press south, trying to get out and gain a foothold in the Vasilkov area. In the east, Ukrainian sources report the occupation of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of several villages on the outskirts of Brovary. There is no confirmation of this from our side yet.
8. Sumy and Chernihiv. Without major changes.
9. Nikolaev. Fighting north of the city. The city itself is blocked from three sides, but there is no assault. The transfer of reinforcements for the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation through Kherson is noted. The Armed Forces of Ukraine expect the activation of operations of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this direction in the coming days.
10. Odessa. The ships of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation work on targets on the coast, complementing the work of aviation. There are no landing events, but the enemy is forced to keep serious forces here, for fear of missing the moment of the exhibition. The Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation, having won complete dominance at sea, now performs a binding role, forcing the enemy to keep troops near Odessa that would be useful in the area of Nikolaev or Krivoy Rog.
Finally, no map today (I am too tired to wait for Readovka)
A final comment:
A mini-Banderastan next?
I think that we are headed for a partition of the Ukraine.
The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia), will probably take the western Ukraine.
The pretext will be some kind of “Russian atrocity”.
NATO will call it a peacekeeping/peacemaking operation.
Question 1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?
I guess is that the devil would be in the details.
For one thing, we need to keep in mind that Russia’s goal is a fundamental change in the European collective security environment. How likely is that?
I would say that not likely at all for the foreseeable future. First, the full magnitude of the economic suicide of the Eurolemmings has to become self-evidently clear, visible, undeniable and obvious. This will take weeks and even months to become fully obvious.
Second, right now the USA, Poland and the UK want war. Thus any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run (as much as Poland or Estonia). If that mini-Banderastan can be veritably disarmed from any weapon systems capable of threatening Russia, then maybe something can be negotiated. If all the Ukie Nazis want to live there, well that’s fine by me, as long as the rest of the Ukraine can truly and firmly lock that border. That might require Russians to create a Russian military base somewhere west/southwest of Kiev with a function similar to the 201st base in Tadjikistan. And no, this is not a “good” solution, but that assumes better options.
Question 2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?
Lastly, there is the issue of border.
Question 3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?
To tell you the truth, I am increasingly becoming convinced that until Russia fires a few Iskanders/Kalibrs into NATO territory (Poland or Romania for example) the Eurolemmings will not come back to their senses.
Do you share that feeling?
And, finally, please stay on topic!
Thank you
Andrei
I am not sure that the iskander into NATO territory should be pushed. Not that I am affraid, which I am, but because it would def. make Russians the aggressors, and not protectors
I think we are way past the impressions something will make in the media, because Russia could be defending Moscow against aliens from outer space and still be portrayed as the vicious aggressor by the West. The only way Russia can win this war is by actually fighting back, and hitting where it will really and desperately hurt the enemy. Bomb everything America ever installed in Europe. Kill all of their soldiers in Europe. Sink their aircrafr carriers. Sink their nuclear submarines. Then tell them “have you had enough or do we start with the unpleasantries?”
Answer 1:
yes but depends on the details as you say. It would have to be neutral + demilitarised + monitoring/verification mechanisms. Russia can live with that as it will also have a buffer in eastern Ukraine
Answer 2:
Yes the tanks have to go all the way but only in order to destroy any remnants of nazi military capability. They should leave as soon as conditions in answer 1 are satisfied
Answer 3:
Russia should only strike if such NATO force crosses the border. This maintains escalation and de-escalation options. On the latter, zone A can cover up the embarrassment they will suffer (from their own publics that is)
Faby of Laos opines the following: Everything east of the Dnjepr goes back to Russia as well as the Odessa-Ismajil-Region. Former parts of Bessarabia (nowadays Moldavia and Transnistria) should vote, if they want to join Russia. I would not give any territory to Poland otherwise they submerge in some Pilsudski-mania-fever.
Better give back Ruthenia to Slovakia. They will be happy to receive a beautiful region.
Hello Andrei
I respectfully (and unusually) disagree with your analysis as it appears to arise from seeing a position of compromise re Russia vs the West. In other words, that they will live together as before.
Russia has stated again and again that this is not acceptable. She does not trust Europe/USA.
If the dollar falls, the USA falls. If the USA falls, NATO falls. Russian security assured.
Russia and China are putting a new currency and world order into place and the USA wants to stop this ASAP – hence war with the savage sanctions excuse. Also wars are distracting and expensive even without external sanctions.
Russia will win in Ukraine and continue diplomatic pressure to solve the security question (not militarily) while the new trading bloc takes shape – months and years?
The USA may therefore try to counter with a wider war.
Yes, maybe everything is not so local and Ukraine is only part of the puzzle, one of the stages. And it’s no longer about the division of the territory of Ukraine and the security of Russia’s western borders – /day-21-of-the-russian-special-military-operation-three-questions/comment-page-2/#comment-1046911
I agree with Ishchenko ‘s latest article on Ukraina.Ru that “Ukraine” and “Ukrainians” should disappear altogether. Despite the fact that Ishchenko himself is a Ukrainian, as his surname says. He certainly did not mean some kind of “genocide”. And the fact that now “Ukrainian” = Russian + Banderism + Crime.
I have a question:
IF Russia takes control over the entire Ukraine, so that the Banderites can not have bases there, what would hinder the Banderites from having bases in East Poland and shoot from there (arguing that “no country acceps Russias presence in the Ukraine”, so it is legit to shoot over the border)? What would be the difference?
For many decades the Americans have set the precedent that a state may legally destroy terrorist bases that are tolerated by a host nation and from which operations are carried out against the defending nation.
That was the whole rationale for the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
Thank you.
What I mean is: It doesn’t matter where the border between land that Russia controls, and the Banderites, is, it is the same situation. So no difference if that “border” is within today’s Ukraine (= a Banderistan in west Ukraine) or the “border” is at the Polish border. Russia needs to defend it the same way.
Not Russia but may be pro-Russian Ukraine might fire Kalibr at ukronazi in Poland.
There are no senses among the puppet governments in Europe to come back to. Why didn’t they press for Russia to be a NATO member when the Soviet Union was dismantled? Because then they would have had to design a new security and development architecture that would preclude the use of force and fraud to satisfy the parasitic order. Everything in the West is subordinated to the parasites. The corruption is total.
Were it not for the warmongering of the Hegemon and its NATOstan, it would take another month for Russia to finalize the operation.
However, the vast majority of us are convinced the Western Hegemon does not want peace in Ukraine and seeks to dismantle Russia ultimately.
Provided that Russia has acquired sufficient evidence that the Hegemon is hell bent on destroying the Federation, it should strike first.
This does not mean resorting to nuclear strikes.
It would need to completely destroy NATO military command centers, military satellites, com centers, energy grids by a combo of EW and hypersonic strikes and other means.
My point is the strike would have to be devastating in terms of military infrastructure for NATO.
It would have to be so fast that the Pentagon would not have time to consider type of response. A coordinated attack of Taiwan from China should be synchronized to keep the Hegemon busy.
My point is Russia can destroy NATO without going nuclear but the strike has to be dazzling and unexpected.
Maybe this is not the right approach but I think it is time for Russia to show its claws because the Hegemon only understands force.
Another alternative would be the complete destruction of all banking and trading data centers along with the destruction of major com satellites to take out western media. I am not sure this alone would be sufficient. Maybe the above combined with complete destruction of all NATO command centers and military facilities.
Of course, I would go for a peace initiative anytime but where are the western diplomats ? Not one of them can reach the level of Lavrov in terms of professionalism.
I trust Russia is prepared for the worst and hopes for the best.
May God protect the Russian Federation and enable the world to move to a multipolar world, peacefully as much as possible.
In the U.S. Civil War, Union General U.S. Grant famously said, upon quickly agreed to a lengthy proposal from a subordinate. The wondered that the matter should be given more study. Grant responded that in the conditions of war what was required was quick and resolute decisions by commanders. He said “If we discover this is the wrong thing then we can swifty move to another course. But we cannot hesitate.” By being a firm and decisive general, Grant heartened his forces and dismayed his enemies. And the paralysis of bureaucrats was avoided.
Russia needs a General Grant. This timid, hesitant, unprepared response of Russia on many fronts is certainly dismaying its natural supporters and obviously emboldening its enemies. The re-appointment of Nabiullina as head of the Central Bank sends a very bad signal. The confusion and unpreparedness of Russia regarding the sanction waves shows very poor leadership. The military strategy of ‘maybe we’ll do something today’ has run its course. Get off your asses and close this out pronto. Think you’re up to meeting that challenge?
As for the sanctions, the west is so fragile it can sustain very little force without fracturing. While Russia is far stronger in such regards. Now is exactly the time to deliver some salutory blows. Like shutting off energy flows, and ceasing the supply of all critical supplies possible. Pain of course, but the other side will capitulate rapidly or face the wrath of their citizens. Remember them? The common chumperie? What would it take after years of lockdown to put them in the streets. Not much here in Canada. So, be like Grant and Do Something. Show some balls and stiffen your backbone and thump the buggers hard.
But please, enough of the hesitation, the hand wringing, the apologetic tone. Enough of having embarassing phone conversations with foreign parties wanting to drag this out. Stop looking weak. Don’t reply that actually you are feeling tough. As in law, how your are seen to be is a force to be reckoned with.
I wonder to what extent we should trust this article published on Russia Daily News on March 17, 2022.
Who are these volunteers and their so defeatist and even pusillanimous speech? Is the fighting and patriotic spirit of the new generations in Russia totally opposed to that of the Russian heroes who forged their tradition of great warriors throughout history?
Is it because so many years of fast food, Hollywood movies and trashy American techno music have had such an impact on the minds of these young people?
Or is this an article written and published by a “fifth column” source in Russia? Still, it attracts the attention of many and it can play a rather dangerous role to many young Russians.
https://russiadaily.news/russia/4179-volunteers-in-russia-refuse-to-go-to-war-with-ukraine
Regarding Question #1.
Sadly there is only one sure way to de-nazify the infected ones. In reality these hapless individuals are suffering . . . putting them out of their misery is the kindess thing that can be done for them; and the people near them.
To allow the creation of a mini-Banderastan may seem “humane” at first glance; but soon the US and their Media soothsayers would rekindle the illness and the symptoms will become worse than they are now.
It helps everyone when Justice is seen to be done.
Video has re-surfaced showing Biden emphatically taking credit for bombing Belgrade.
Who is the real war criminal?
https://www.b92.net/eng/news/world.php?yyyy=2022&mm=03&dd=17&nav_id=113304
Zoltan Grossman (article in CounterPunch) claimed Putin’s aim is to divide Ukraine, not talking western part at all. Russia taking eastern, central eastern and southern Ukraine under rule and command. The focused language and military map.
German Business Press headline – Federal Government developing industry shutdown plan if Russian Natural Gas supply shuts off. (article goes on to describe a type of triage deciding which industry gets supplied and which get the shaft)
https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/energie/energiewirtschaft-bund-arbeitet-an-abschaltplan-fuer-industrie-bei-gas-lieferstopp/28176772.html
Sorry, but you dipsh*ts coulda had peace and prosperity. All Scholz and Macron had to do was to tell Zelensky (and Biden) that a neutral Ukie implenting the MInsk accords and UNSC 2202 was the only way to go, instead of peace; now you get chaos in Europe. Washingtion is laughing all the way to the bank. SU*KERS
In the meantime life for Russians in the hysterical, moral bancrupt EU gets more difficult. Today, on the garden fence our Russian friends living in Flanders (I am Belgian, my wife Russian) house was painted ‘murderers’. However I still see a lot of support to my pro Russian comments on facebook. 90% positive. The more conservative, lgtb and other cultural marxism denouncing part of Europe does not agree with the current rhetoric.
As an armchair analyst I vote for option 2. Take the whole of Ukraine, put a Russian puppet there but see that he runs the country properly, drive the Banerdrastan Nazis who have not been sent to meet Jesus into Poland where they can do their good works, and leave a solid Russian/Ukrainian military presence permanently on the Polish Ukrainian border. No need to missile Poland, allow them to infect themselves with their own humanoid plague.
1) As long as Russia leaves Western Ukraine untouched, NATO will continue to smuggle weapons and fighters with training to provoke the East.
2) Russia needs to clear the neo-Nazis out by any means. Once that’s done they can help form a government from vetted individuals/groups with interests that meet the ethnicity of the area their in. A Ukrainian self-defence force can then be formed to protect the borders and police the cities. Russia can then remove it’s forces, but perhaps with a peacekeeping component that is available to quash any terrorism.
3) NATO wouldn’t dare overtly interfere with Ukraine any further after this. A reply from Russia would be direct strikes on the attacking forces AND the infrastucture it comes from i.e airfields and storage bunkers.
Thesis, that „Poles will probably take western Ukraine” is completely absurd. There are no rational evidences, that Poland thinks about the change of its boundaries. Poland has no diplomatic and military potential to do this, moreover it has no interest to „take” somebody else’s ground. Don’t think about Poland through the prism of outdated great-power, Messianic ideas that no one here believes in.
A few comments. 1 if we can discern the Russian play book, then so can NATO. Neither is the case.
2 never threaten with a weapon without first striking and drawing blood as this demonstrates a willingness to use the weapon, hence the threat is taken seriously.
3 never show your weapon . The first experience the aggressor needs is to feel the weapon.
4Judo is a matter of sensitivity to energy flows, and numerous fakes and diversions, before the overwhelming technics.
5 the propaganda victory of the west, is merely a battle… not the war. There will be time enough for the truth to become apparent to everyone.
6 Ukraine is a battle, not the war.
Russia putting a toecap into NATO would give Washington everything it needs.
It would not be put off, it would be emboldened, yelling “see, told you!”
The sheeple in NATO countries would be actively baying for a nuclear war (without knowing it, of course).
Best destroy them when the cross the border. That would give strong enough message without playing into Washington’s hands IMHO.
Every inch of ukraine cleansed by the valiant efforts of the Russian military services should become part of russia, period…no buffers with independent capability to lie whilst they rearm and repair. At a minimum the entire protruding wedge into russia. My preferred minimum retained territory would be the central dividing waterway, or N/S thru a line W of kiev. All here know the efforts Russia put into making a working peace with protections for the ethnic Russians in ukr. All here know the background of this defanging effort. Ukr had the opportunity, for many years, to avoid this situation. Ukr could also have made reasonable concession after this exercise began. But they instead have chosen to make it a war on the ground, and a world war with sanctions, and stolen central bank moneys belonging to the people of Russia. Permanent harm has been done to Russia via the attacks by a majority of western countries. And do consider…when the West attacks, any who provide support, they consider legitimate targets. Russia MUST do the same.
As an aside, who at this point would trust ANY promise to disarm the Ukr side? From my perspective, Putin should pull his offers off the table. The time for those to be agreed upon ended in the first 24 hours. They /ukr-usa made the war, now accept that and win it decisively Russia. Russia has NO other choice…none, when considered in sum totality of all actions taken by the West.
I wouldn’t trust a promise by the Zeleznyy clique to eat lunch.
Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?
No, a mini-Banderastan would allow for “plausible deniability” cross-border operations into the liberated Ukraine where NATO can continue using Ukrainians and other useful idiots to do the dirty work for them.
It would also give NATO the chance to incorporate this territory into NATO (if borders are approved by everyone) or at the very least pump them full of even more advanced weapons, in particular air defense systems, which the RUAF unfortunately seems to have some trouble dealing with at the moment. (Hell, even NATO had trouble dealing with Yugoslavias outdated air defenses in 1999…)
So, in short – if you don’t clean it “today” you will have to do it “tomorrow”… The “dirt” won’t go away by itself.
Question2: is there a better option? Do you think that the Russian tanks should drive all the way to the western Ukraine and, if yes, how long do you want them to say?
Yes, they should but only if there is enough forces to get the job done (overwhelming numerical superiority) both in the combat phase and in the following counter-insurgency phase.
Russian forces would probably have to stay indefinitely – i.e. until NATO throws in the towel, but this is preferable to having a “201st” base on the Ukraine/mini-Banderastan border and dealing with constant cross-border attacks/infiltrations for years to come.
It’s far easier to shut the spigot off closer to the source and that would also force NATO to put their money where their mouth is – i.e. risk an all out war by pushing a counterinsurgency directly across the border into what would de-facto be Russian territory.
Question3: If a NATO “peacekeeping force” is detected approaching the Ukrainian border, should Russia wait until they cross to strike, or shall Russia repeat what she just did in Iavorov but inside Poland?
Yes, Russia should wait until they cross to strike. This way, they can never invoke Article 5. Not that rules seem to matter to NATO & friends but it would give Russia the moral high ground in the eyes of the rest of the world.
[quote]”Is what we are seeing in Putin and Ukraine actually what it appears to be?”[/quote]
I join your question. It is really disturbing and has no answer.
Found on Telegram from the front. Talks of success and things not done yet:
MARCH 17, 2022.
SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION. MY SURPRISES WITH THE PROCESS.
I AM NOT A THEORETIC OR A PRACTITIONER HERE, I AM A PROFESSIONAL OBSERVER.
My job is to see, to be smart, and to translate everything into the language of the people. So, about the actions of the Russian army and the armies of the LDNR (sorry, I’m tired of calling ordinary soldiers people’s policemen, especially since their police status does not match, more on that below).
I am surprised by the decisiveness of the Kremlin. They didn’t use half measures, but did everything as it should be: they opened the front in the Donbass, and formed asymmetric wandering groups deep behind enemy lines (I won’t confuse you with the term “fraternal people”, but I’ll call a spade a spade, we are fighting against the Nazi leprosy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the National Guard).
If we were moving along the Donbas alone (now this is clear to me), we would be bogged down here up to our ears. We would throw “meat” from the north, Ukrainians from the south, and the meat grinder would spin endlessly. Everything is done well, and the work is done. Yes, blood, yes loss of equipment. But we knew what we were getting into.
I was surprised by such an unusual variant of the assault on Mariupol. We have a minuscule amount of people there!!! And artillery does not even work like it does in the Avdiyivka direction near Donetsk, where a ton of TNT per minute is loaded onto the heads of the APU militants. Mariupol is being taken by assault groups from different departments and different states, and everything is coordinated so that we are about to take it!
I am surprised that we have not bothered at all with future work in the cleared territories. Who will lead there? Who will keep order? Who feed and occupy the people? Who and how to catch runaway Nazis and saboteurs, who will be like uncut dogs? This also applies to the territories of the former Ukraine and the liberated Donbass.
I am surprised that the goals are marked (down with weapons and Nazis), but the tasks are not defined: how are we going to achieve these goals? Zelensky in the future who? And his funny brother? Who do we have now in Ukraine, unequivocally, on the wanted list? Are there surnames? What political structure will we build in the liberated territories?
I am surprised that there is no understanding in Russian society of what we are doing in Ukraine and Donbass. Today in Rostov a policeman stopped my friend and asked (the license plate number of the DPR car): “What’s going on there, is there a war”!? And the girl at the gas station pointed to the letter “Z” and was surprised: “Oh, what is this”? And this is in Rostov!
But … Now you can not criticize either the military or other organizers of the information process. It is impossible, because the war, and this is true. And tomorrow will be a victory. And everyone will already be on the side. As the old man Lukich (V.I. Lenin) said: “Today is early, but tomorrow it will be late.” We have even greater trials ahead of us, the information of which, they believe, is needed like air.
Yes, about the police. This army, according to the classics, is designed to operate only on its own territory. Parts of the DPR are already in Ukraine, helping the Russian army. This is legally not the police. This is the army.
Now the conclusion: we are still moving forward, completing tasks, winning victories, quickly moving away from annoying and bitter losses, and doing what we desperately need. Either we, or us, there will be no neutral option when everyone sits down, drinks a glass and disperses. Glory to those who go ahead.
Putin has already stated that if Ukraine doesn’t surrender, they can lose statehood. Very promising. I am a born again Christian for 43 years. I was traveling continually in Ukraine and Russia since 2013 visiting churches. I have witnessed the encroachment of the nazis everywhere in Ukraine. When I heard men trying to speak Ukrainian in a bar in Kharkov, I knew it was time to do something.
A partitioned Ukraine will mean a Vietnam war forever. Russia must take the entire country and exterminate the Banderites. And that my friends, is an Old Testament Bible solution…
I pray to god that this idea will forever stay in the realms of what-if-istan but when i look at all the options, the current state of affairs in massive demonisiation of the Russian state combined with the astonoshing progress and existential threat to the ’empire of lies’ that lies within a decisive defeat on the ground i have to consider the fact that an ultimate and overwhelming excuse will need to be fabricated to save the empire from getting a final neckshot. A false flag of proportions that would litterally obliterate any doubts and round up the governments that abstained from full out condemnation of the current military policing action that Russia is conducting. It’s not as if this hasn’t been done before and if history teaches us something it’s that past behavior is indeed a good lead in predicting future actions.
A low yield tactical nuke near or in Kiev would do exactly that. Wait for the next salvo of iskanders and set it off. The idea alone freightens me beyond imagination but if there is one way of reversing the current trend on all fronts it is exactly that. The discourse is allready out of the box, the assist (to put it in soccer terms) is allready given by many officials and i honestly think they are very capable and willing to resort to such desperate measures to ensure the all encompassing empire dominance will persist.
Would love to hear about yr thoughts on this?
Update from Southfront:
KYIV’S FORCES ARE ON RETREAT IN DONBASS. RUBEZHNOE FALLS. SEVERODONETSK IS NEXT
https://southfront.org/kyivs-forces-are-on-retreat-in-donbass-rubezhnoe-falls-severodonetsk-is-next/
What you wrote makes perfect sense and should scare us all!
I think they (Poland) would only expand into Ukraine after winning a war. It would not happen at the same time as the no-fly zone imposition, nor before surely and the Polish leader was even worried about Mig fighter planes getting there. Regarding Question 3, I do share that feeling, but I don’t think Russia will do that, unless a no-fly zone is imposed, in which case “all bets are off” (that could be WWIII, say all but Zelensky who only suggests it). Regarding question 2, I think they will because they must, i.e., “there can’t be a safe haven for the criminals” (‘yes’ to question 2, ‘no’ to question 1). I would answer that nobody can know the “how long” answer. Glad this Vineyard is not like Putin, “Would you or do you? Speak plainly tranquilocomp.”
My answers to questions:
1) Putin in his essay on unity specifically referred to Galicia as “not a part” of Ukraine. Its historical, cultural and religious touchpoints do not agree with the rest of Malorossiya. The West best be separated from the rest of the country in the gathering of Russian lands. Russia need not worry about the Ukrainian nazis if they are confined to their own paddock. I doubt the US/UK would be willing to overextend themselves on behalf of a failed, rump state. Problem in the West will be the non-Galician regions, like Ruthenia and Bukovina, and they may want to be parts of Hungary and Romania, respectively. But again that is not part of the big picture.
2) I agree with Doug McGregor that Russian AF should not go to the West. He thinks that Dnieper should be the boundary in the partition, but I think that it is giving up too much. The Novorossiya based Ukraine should extend to the whole of Central Ukraine, i.e. include the Zhitomyr and Vinnytsia regions.
3) That all depends if Russia wants a war with NATO. If it does not, it should not strike into Poland. As long as the “peacekeepers” do not cross into the “Russian sphere of influence” in Ukraine, it may even be a good idea to tolerate them in the West, provided they are there to keep peace, i.e. assure the demilitarization and denazification of those regions. But Russia should not tolerate foreign troops in the Ukrainian territory until its army firmly controls the new border and Lavrov obtains an agreement from the West recognizing it.
Russia should send a few Zircons to take out the Aegis Ashore ABM systems in Poland and Romania.
What will this accomplish:
1. The removal of these systems was one of the key demands Russia made to NATO in those take it or leave it ‘proposals’ Russia sent to NATO. Removing the systems by military force will call the NATO bluff on whether they will invoke their Article 5. But the cowards will do nothing except blather, because they can’t do anything without risking WW3 with nuclear weapons involved, and not unless they want full scale war inside Western Europe itself and it’s destruction.
2. The NATO inaction thereof will demonstrate to Poland and other Eastern European NATO member Nations that Article 5 is just hot air and does not apply to them when it comes to the crunch, and that the West will not come to their aid despite all the current tough talking in Western Capitals.
Ultimately, this will bring home to the disbelieving psychopaths in Washington, London and Brussels, the grim reality that Russia really means business and is prepared to take on the entire West to defend itself and protect it’s National interests.
The Eurorats are under the delusion they are protected by Nato. By flooding Ukraine with arms they are a party to this war and a legitimate target. By targeting Poland and Romania Russia can expose Nato as a toothless dog and stop the arms flow by bringing the war home to those that seek escalation.
You are missing the point entirely.
The “Eurocrats” will be happy to see Poland and Romania burn. They hate the day they admitted them into the EU.
They will shed crocodile tears in public, but will do nothing to really support them. To the contrary, they are likely to abuse the situation, forcing PL and RO into more concessions.
Machine translation:
A RIA Novosti correspondent reported that the Mariupol airport had completely come under the control of the forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR). Earlier, the Ministry of Defense reported on the fighting in the city center.
As noted in the publication, before that, the airport was known for its prison, torture chambers for “Ukrainian nationalists” and the SBU. The journalist also said that fighting is now continuing in the center of Mariupol – the sounds of shots, explosions and artillery salvos are heard. According to him, the main roads leading to the central part of the city are blocked by barricades.
On the same day, the representative of the Ministry of Defense, Igor Konashenkov, said that the DPR, together with Russian fighters, was fighting in Mariupol. Earlier, the head of the republic, Denis Pushilin, spoke about the Mariupol house blown up by Azov militants (an extremist organization banned in Russia). According to Pushilin, 200 people remained under the rubble.
Hier is the link:
https://info24.ru/news/mariupolskij-aeroport-pereshyol-pod-kontrol-dnr.html
You talk about Russia attacking NATO and ‘senses.’ You’re insane. If Russia attacks NATO it will be flattened. And if you think the Chinese have your back you are in cloud cuckoo land. The Chinese will stab Russia in the back immediately if they launch missiles into NATO territory.
Russia will be flattened with what? Drones? Are you actually aware of the destructive capacity of Russian conventional weapons and their capabilities thereof? Trying to ‘flatten’ Russia will inevitably invoke a Russian nuclear response IF their conventional capabilities are overwhelmed, unlikely as that is. That is Russian military doctrine as of 2016 and signed into law. You must live in a CNN bubble.
Not sure how this sits with Russia being an aggressor. You can see why Britain/US wanted the Tsar dead, Stalin dead and now Mr P.
1.1 First Peace Conference, 18 May–29 July 1899
In 1898, Tsar Nicholas II, Alexander II’s grandson, proposed a peace conference in The Hague. Twenty-six States2 met from 18 May to 29 July 1899.
The Conference agreed on the adoption of the following instruments:
I. Convention for the pacific settlement of international disputes;
II. Convention for the adaptation to maritime warfare of the principles of the 1864 Geneva Convention;
III. Convention with respect to the laws and customs of war on land;
IV. Declaration concerning the prohibition of the use of bullets which can easily expand or change their form inside the human body such as bullets with a hard covering which does not completely cover the core, or
containing indentations;
V. Declaration concerning the prohibition of the discharge of projectiles and explosives from balloons or by other new analogous methods; and
VI. Declaration concerning the prohibition of the use of projectiles with the sole object to spread asphyxiating poisonous gases.
However, the gathering left Nicholas II’s principal disarmament objectives unfulfilled. The delegates failed to adopt instruments regarding the prevention of new types and calibres of rifles and naval guns. Nor were they able to agree on fixing the size of military forces and naval armaments or their budgets. Germany, as well as the US, then an emerging power that had just won the Spanish-American War (1898), dampened prospects of
success.
All the bridges with Washington are destroyed. Russia should feel more free to act. Not only Europe should receive a big thrill but Washington D.C should feel the heat of a first nuclear tactical strike.
According to my doctrine which was adopted by VVP (“Russia needs every square foot of the land, simply if it doesn’t belong to you, it belongs to your enemy”), Russian needs most of the Borderland (Ukraine), except Galicia. I am talking about Malorussia and Novorussia. But if anybody doesn’t like living in Russia, well they can move freely to Galicia and even call that country Ukraine.
How to get there? Each Oblast, after liberation, needs to organize referendum about joining Russia. 2 weeks after liberation. Enough time for Russians to return home, enough time for schizophrenic people with dual identity to get back to Russian name and culture. For those who left to Europe, let them stay, that was actually intention of the Germans and others, after being overcrowded with Africans and Arabs they needed some white people.
Russian troops should continue until they can shake hands with Viktor Orbán.
I’ve been reading the responses here and frankly, I’m baffled by the rather naive view so many have of this hallowed ‘denazification’ that is to come.
Have you forgotten that after WW2, (western) Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union for almost fifty years? The Soviet Union was arguably the most determined anti-fascist nation ever. And even they, over the course of fifty (!!!) years failed to extinguish the flame of fascism that burns deep inside (the people of) the western Ukraine.
And now you think Russia can accomplish this task in only a fraction of that time? Please, stop dreaming. You can remove the obvious neo-nazis, the ones who tell you to your face what they really think of you, from the army and the government, but you can’t douse that fascist flame in the people at large. It’s not going to happen. And as soon as it has the opportunity, it will reemerge. No matter how many years it will take.
Ukraine without the Crimea and the two Donbass republics does not have a pro-Russia majority. If you leave the Ukraine as it is now, even after ‘denazification’, it will inevitably revert to becoming an anti-Russia. That means that if you leave it in it’s current borders, that anti-Russia will once again stretch from Lvov to Kharkov. It won’t be tomorrow, or next year. It might take five years, or ten or twenty. But it will happen. And all that’s being done now, will have to be done again.
The solution is obvious. Cut off a part of the Ukraine that contains at least as many pro-western Ukrainians as you lost pro-Russian ones when the Crimea and the Donbass republics split of. That new, Western-Ukraine can then do what they want. Contrary to what many people here claim, it won’t be a threat to Russia. It won’t be on Russia’s border. It’ll be far enough from it. Central-Ukraine (now once again with a pro-Russian majority) will still be between the two.
That new Banderastan will not just be fairly small (less than 10 million people), it will also be demilitarized and dirt-poor to the point that it will make Moldova and Albania look good in comparison. It will rapidly implode and the consequences will primarily hit Europe, not Russia and her allies.
Several commenters have stated that Russia needs control over the pipelines that run through the western Ukraine. Wrong! It’s Europe that needs control over those pipelines. Russia has plenty of customers for her gas and other options. Europe does not. It will be Europe that won’t tolerate interference with their gas deliveries. Let them deal with the mess that will be Western-Ukraine.
Russia’s is creating a geo-political shield in the center of Ukraine. This shield is permanent and restores “Indivisibility of Security” status for the world.
I conclude
1. Russian will not allow this shield to host any pocket or holes of insecurity.
2. Whatever action required to maintain the integrity of the Shield will be taken.
3. There is no need to hit NATO territory or venture beyond because the current event is sufficient.
Q1 : No. The territorial integrity of Ukraine must be maintained.
Q2 : Maybe Banderstan could be a separate federal entity at most. I don’t think it will be neccessary for the russians to drive their tanks all the way to the western border, the problems in this region is something the new Ukraine goverment should be able to handle themselves as part of the denazification process.
Q3 : Wait until the forces cross the border and settle inn. It’s an unlikely hypotetical situation. I think the west got the message when putin warned about external interference. UK/US trying to throw the Poles under the bus for a second time, trying to make them go it alone with fighter plane deliveries and ‘security guarantees’ didn’t work out to well.
After watching a US media show on Ukraine and listening to a ex-General give his opinion, I thought .They seem to pretend they don’t know WHO is winning this war. Ask yourself whose army is less than 20 miles from whose capital. And surrounding it as I type.
Whose army has surrounded the 2nd city of the country and all the areas around it. And whose army using less troops than the enemy has occupied about 35-40% of a country around the size of Texas. And whose army has total control of the airspace over whose country. And total control of the sea around whose country.
One thing that our media won’t tell people is that the Russian military has orders to try to save the lives of Ukrainian civilians, but also Ukrainian soldiers as much as possible.
And that makes it very hard on the Russian military. If they followed the US example in Iraq, Afghanistan ,Syria, and Libya. And just bombed the hell out of the cities and call the dead “collateral damage” and keep going. It would be much easier for the Russian military, but they haven’t done that (yet).
To hear a general that served in the US military during the Iraq invasion talk about Putin being a war criminal is hypocrisy writ large. The war criminal list of US leaders in those wars is endless. And make no mistake.In a war against NATO the Russian military won’t be hobbled by those orders to save lives.
Russia has to finish the job. Anything less will be viewed as defeat
I don’t understand what is meant by “Poland wants war.” Is it the U.S.-controlled govt or the Polish people? I think is is the govt palms that can’t get allong without the grease.
Q1. No, The Ruskies cannot afford that, maybe its best if Hungary, Slovakia and Romania take back from Ukraine what the Bolsheviks stole from them 100 years ago. From the maps provided, the Ruskies are not far away from that line.
Q2. No they should stick to their plan, and stay to their word,,,, “we dont need any more land” if the nazi’s run to west Ukraine Ruskies’ missile batteries are good enough,,,, only over to west Ukraine to raid bio medical “reserch centers”
Q3. The west has got poopy pants already, and the Ruskies have only un-leashed 1/100 th of their potential. Gathering a peace force is only bait. Wait, forcing the enemy to make a move first gives you the advantage says Lao Tzu.
The Ruskies could do an asymetric move like blasting Diego Garcia to pieces to flex some muscles. But they already did that a few days before the Ukraine incursion via playing with israels’ gps system. The israelites are still changing their poopy pants after that, it was a specific unwritten warning saying something like “no bullshit from you twerps” in my guess.
The real check mate move for Q 3 has to be non military, but financial or otherwise. At least no more gas to Usa, could be an example. But Putin promised the victims would not be the general public in his moves,,, so my guess is he has something else up his sleeve
On March 17, 1991, Ukraine held a referendum on the preservation of the USSR. Results by region on the map – https://kireev.livejournal.com/426572.html
On December 1, 1991, a referendum on independence was held in Ukraine. The results by region on the map – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Ukrainian_independence_referendum#By_region
Back then, people were still sincere, naive, they hadn’t invented “electronic voting”.
We can see that separatist sentiments prevailed in the Volyn, Rovno, Lvov, Ternopol, Khmelnytsky, Zakaraptie, Ivano-Frankovsk, and Chernovtsi regions. Approximately along the meridian north of the extreme northeastern part of Moldova. This territory can be considered “Banderostan”. It will need to be separated, based on historical development.
This region was a separatist region during the whole Soviet period. It was reflected even in the mass culture of that time. For example, in Frederick Forsyth’s novel “The Devil’s Alternative” (1979), ukranationalists seize a supertanker. Characteristically, these Banderites are Jewish by nationality.
The war is not local and is not limited to Ukraine. As correctly written above, “Ukraine is one of the battles, but not the whole war. The cutting off of historically non-Russian “Bandarostan” after its demilitarization will only be the beginning of the process of settling the contradictions.
That’s how I see it from my couch. :)
Your questions 1+2:
1. can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated:
No they can’t. That will create never-ending conflict with the US (yeah +Nato FWIW) in that it will give them territory that is Not-NATO to store munitions+men on and launch attacks from. And they will – Russia will have to second sizeable resources to keep that lot at bay and the chance of mistake (or false flag) is high.
2. is there a better option?
Yeah. Take the whole. The bits they don’t want they give to the neighbouring countries… Poland, Bulgaria, whoever. It then auto-becomes NATO territory and they store all the men and munitions they want on it but they can’t use it to springboard attacks on Russian/allied territory without incurring Putin’s Retaliation against the Decision-Makers.
And question 3 goes out the window.
Call a bit they keep Ukraine.
I think your question is precisely what Russia’s goal is:
Question1: in your opinion, can Russia afford to have a non-demilitarized and non-denazified (landlocked) mini-Banderastan if the rest of the Ukraine is liberated?
YES !!! This seemed obvious from the first few days of the operation. The Russians gave ample time and corridors for these forces to escape Westward to a rump nationalist Ukraine. The whole contour of the Russian operation seems to be wanting to funnel them there. And the more hardcore and radical the escapees are the better from the Russian POV.
And you also stated the Russian objective: “Any mini-Banderastan will be fully NATO-run”. And with Putin’s blessing they will have full EU membership. And at that point Putin will sit back and enjoy the spectacle of the nationalist Ukrainians in the EU parliament, decked out in old style party Reichstag uniforms, with full Waffen SS regalia. If the EU thought Victor Orban and Nigel Farage were a thorn in their side, if this comes to pass, it will be EPIC in so many ways. Think about it !!!
Question 1 You can never trust the west to uphold agreements they will always circle back to trying to meddle in Ukraine’s political system. You must leave Ukraine as a diminished and weaken state without a need for occupation, with an eye towards strengthening long term stability.
By pursing the following outcomes
>Take much of Ukraine’s territory east of the Dnieper to protect ethnically Russian and Russian speakers. Then integrate these regions into Russia. The method doing this to mirror the Crimea absorption .
>Suggest some small regions Zakarpattia Oblast be given to Hungary one of the NATO nations that is less belligerent towards Russia. (Part of this Oblast has a large Hungarian population). The same for Moldavans in Odessa and Chernivtski oblasts. While this does not directly benefit Russia it does serve the over all purpose of weakening the remnant Ukrainian state and will eliminate these areas as a point of contention should future Russian invention be needed.
>By treaty, force establishment of a new permenant Russian military and Naval bases in Ukraine near Odessa and Transnistria to further discourage NATO meddling in Ukraine.
>Selectively encourage any remaining Russian diaspora in western Ukraine to migrate to the eastern Russian controlled regions after a careful vetting process for these migrants.
Question 2 Don’t go that far with tanks. Use missile, drone and airstrikes for Western Ukraine.
Question 3: I think hitting targets in NATO territory is a very bad idea, it will give them a stronger political justification for more expansive and aggressive military intervention. Even the western citizens most ardently opposed to NATO involvement in Ukraine will change their minds. Also even if a NATO peacekeeping force is assembled outside Ukraine, it might be a bluff and actual deployment to Ukraine a non-starter.
Give the so-called peacekeepers all appropriate threats and warnings to not enter Ukraine, However the moment they are 1km in Ukraine then blast the hell of the NATO invaders.
Dont you VVP has already some idea about western Ukraine?
Dont you think Lukashenko has his own view about the same?
May be Poland could receive chunks of it in exchange for exiting NATO.
A comment at moa mentioned the western “rump may elect to join Poland and thereby obtain immediate accession to NATO.”
If this is the case then the Nato border will be whever Russia decides to stop its wester house cleaning.
No one is leaving Nato (bar, maybe Turkey) until the usd$ fails and the poodles have to pay the real costs of keeping Russia as the enemy policy; the USA MIC has another warehouse dumping ground for its “economic” output (read military junk); and the Biden-Clinton-Obama criminal gang is uprooted.
I suspect the third factor is now on the USA 2022 mid-terms frontline. In a perverse sense, V. Putin now has a very strong hand in influencing the USA domestic political environment by virtue of action/in-action in the Ukraine.
For Russia this special project simply replaces their annual military war games (and budgets) and could go on simmering (like Syria) for years. For the Europeans — it is one cold hungry winter after another coming up (after a hot summer with expensive airconditioning). For the USA empire it is an already cracked egg and a return to a more stable bifucated world economy (c. 1980’s) — i.e., growing state-based capitalism and trade in the Global South and robber-capitalism in the deminishing Global North.
Question 1: Yes, but very painful. This is the price to not destroying whole world and thus Russia too. I think, NATO satanists without something to grasp from this war are suicidal. US is no more ruled by humans but by other ‘things’ who already own antiatomic bunkers and 30 years provisions and want a NEW DNA lineage on earth
Question 2. Yes, but only in the south. That decoupling totally Ukraine to have sea access. And then russians MUST use the psychological milestone into NATO: ask romanians to take BUGEAC, southern R.Moldova and all the rest of the Danube mouths, while keeping Odessa. In this case they will make 90% romanians to turn against NATO on the long run (because NATO won’t allow them to do that). And one piece falling inside NATO, means many to come……
Question 3. Nope, they should wait to cross the border and ONLY after threat them with about doing that.
1. No. Any such launchpad would be dangerous; this one, all the more extremist, would be even more dangerous.
2. No, this should not be necessary. In fact, after the Ukrainian/Kievan propaganda crashes, there will be no drive for more war.
3. No, the NATO troops are there only to provoke further tensions. Let them be frustrated in their role.
Honestly, Russia ought to demand federalization of Ukraine. With the separatist republics reinserted back into Ukraine, with the National Guard disbanded and replaced with home guards under the command of the federal provinces, with such strong constitutional guarantees of neutrality that would make Ukraine incompatible with the Common Defence and Security Policy of the Fourth Reich. Any international treaty would have to be agreed on by all the provinces.
The North Atlantic Terrorist Organization (NATO) is becoming more and more irrelevant. The United States of Aggression has already bypassing NATO in favour of bilateral “defence cooperation agreements” forced on governments staffed with treasonous collaborators, because NATO is composed mostly of European countries who are not at all so crazy as the United States of Aggression would like them to be.
The Westerners would soon invent a new aggressive military pact, as per the recent British ideas.
“The Poles, who are currently feeling very heroic (as they always do when there is a civil war in Russia),”
Russian Civil War, (1918–20), maonly finished ib 1920. The Polish–Soviet War (late autumn 1918/14 February 1919 – 18 March 1921) was fought primarily between the Second Polish Republic and the Russian Soviet. The War ended in a complete russian defeat. And the current war isnt a civil one