Okay, predictably some has misunderstood my rant as a change in heart. Others wonder what has changed over the past 24 hours. So let me clarify:
1) No change of heart? No – Putin did the right thing by waiting as long as was possible. I just don’t believe that waiting is possible any more. Why not?
2) What has changed? Not just words, but actions by Poroshenko. I, along with many other observers in Russia, had hopes that Poroshenko would use his “clean hands status” to come up with at least a temporary cease-fire followed by negotiations. Heck – even a 48 hour break to “celebrate” his “election” would have been helpful. All that happened was a dramatic increase in violence. Also, Merkel did specifically ask for a meeting with Putin and I had some hopes that the bitch has something useful to say to him. But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”.
Finally, Poroshenko did more than just spew some garden variety Ukie nonsense. He specifically committed himself to one language, no federation, no negotiations (at least not with those folks who matter) and he topped it all with a completely surreal statement about the Crimea being forever Ukie. Ok, these are not just words, the man cornered himself into a crazy, maximalist position. Some ask what I was expecting and say add that Poroshenko had no other options. Nonsense! He could have said something along these lines:
The blood of the glorious Ukrainian people is sacred to me and my first duty is to prevent it from being spilled (= stop the shelling). I shall never rest until each and every Ukrainian will feel that he/she is a precious part of an inclusive Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been diverse and multi-national (language issue). The Ukraine must forever become a land of peace and peaceful trade (= neutrality). There is no personal sacrifice I shall not consent to achieve these lofty goals (= negotiate with the Novorossians). Etc. etc. etc.
Guys, this is not that hard. Not to mention that NOW would have been the correct time to get rid of the Nazis while the “eyes of the world” were upon the “legitimate President of the Ukraine”.
Poroshenko totally blew it. Totally.
And not because he is dumb. All those who know him agree on two things: he is a total prostitute and he is very smart. In this case, he was simply reading the speech written for him by Uncle Shmuel.
So that is what changed:
a) a total collapse and surrender by the EU 1%ers
b) a total sellout of Poroshenko to Uncle Shmuel
And this is why I see no point in waiting any longer. That, and the fact that if time is on Russia’s side (which it is – Banderastan is not viable), time is not on the side of the people of Novorossia who need help now.
So no, no change of heart. Change in objective circumstances. Remember dialectics 101: a quantitative change does eventually result in a qualitative change. I think that we have reached this point now.
As for my fear, it is primarily triggered by what I perceive as a “wishy-washy” tone out of Moscow. If that tone is designed to allow for a last ditch effort (I hear that Poroshenko has now announced that combats should stop this week) or for a cover for an intervention – fine. But something needs to be done in the next 24-48 hours and my Bosnian experience makes it very hard for me to live through these next couple of days.
Last, and frankly: I want the Polite Armed Men in Green to make minced meat of the Ukie Nazis involved in this disgusting war on civilians. These SOBs don’t deserve to live, imnsho.
I hope that I have explained myself to the satisfaction of at least most of you.
Kind regards,
The Saker
“But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”.
– The Saker
When I read this line I could only think of the news article that came out 2 1/2 months ago in the Financial Times saying Merkel was reduced to tears, not wanting Germany to be the bad guy and squeeze these imploding southern EU economies and how close in retrospect the EUSSR came to dissolution and hard Grexit (which of course would also result in the immediate nukyulur destruction of Deutsche Bank’s balance sheets, along with that of lots of other Too Big to Jail Euro and possibly even US banks due to all the derivatives garbage they hold based on Greek Credit Default Swaps etc).
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/05/12/ft-unfolds-story-behind-eurozone-crisis-merkel-in-tears/
So poor Angela cracked under the pressure, did what the Fed wanted, because she had little other choice other than firing up the printing presses or distributing the (long rumored) caches of Deutsche Marks hidden in vaults across Germany after the declaration of a 72 hour bank holiday!
So in considering why the Eurocrats bow and scrape even to the State Department proconsuls like Nuland who say ‘f them’ to the whole world, do think about the banks. This all goes back to the banksters and the Fed’s massive dollar-euro swap with the ECB in 2010 when the euro was on the brink. Can the Fed repeat that scenario now? I think it will be much, much more difficult to pull off this time.
And the reason I posted the link to the video about Operation Bagration is to consider the role of deception and maskirovka in that most successful Soviet offensive of the war. I believe we are seeing something similar now where Putin is running the risk of looking weak to the Fedorovs and Dugins while plotting a strike that principally is going to target the weak link between the U.S. and Germany, while stepping up enormously the Ivan Chih Minh Trail to the NAF. Perhaps Gazprom will respond to the McInsane Bulgaria provocation by demanding payment for gas henceforth in rubles or euros and no dollars whatsoever will be accepted. Russia IMO should also retaliate against the massive gold price smashdown that has hurt its producers by immediately filing litigation in London against the big four banks behind the ‘London fix’ alleging they have caused material damage to Russia’s gold miners. Finally, Putin himself should fly to NYC to inaugurate Russia’s chairmanship of the UNSC on June 16 and give a speech in which he condemns in front of the whole world the humanitarian crisis the US-backed Kiev Nazis have created and tells the whole world he has personally met with refugees from Novorossiya. Let those bitches Rice, Nuland and Psaki all squirm in their seats listening to Putin calmly catalogue the atrocities Kiev forces have committed and warn Ukraine that the individual officers who ordered these war crimes including targeting of civilian infrastructure will be held accountable.
Then and only then with the world beginning to question Kiev and the MSM Narrative crumbling in Europe if not the U.S. will it be time to consider the direct military options. In the meantime over the next week and a half, Putin must give the NAF heavy weaponry and radar guided SAMs to bloody the Nazi Guard and Ukrainian Air Force with first.
American Kulak
“But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”.
– The Saker
When I read this line I could only think of the news article that came out 2 1/2 months ago in the Financial Times saying Merkel was reduced to tears, not wanting Germany to be the bad guy and squeeze these imploding southern EU economies and how close in retrospect the EUSSR came to dissolution and hard Grexit (which of course would also result in the immediate nukyulur destruction of Deutsche Bank’s balance sheets, along with that of lots of other Too Big to Jail Euro and possibly even US banks due to all the derivatives garbage they hold based on Greek Credit Default Swaps etc).
http://greece.greekreporter.com/2014/05/12/ft-unfolds-story-behind-eurozone-crisis-merkel-in-tears/
So poor Angela cracked under the pressure, did what the Fed wanted, because she had little other choice other than firing up the printing presses or distributing the (long rumored) caches of Deutsche Marks hidden in vaults across Germany after the declaration of a 72 hour bank holiday!
So in considering why the Eurocrats bow and scrape even to the State Department proconsuls like Nuland who say ‘f them’ to the whole world, do think about the banks. This all goes back to the banksters and the Fed’s massive dollar-euro swap with the ECB in 2010 when the euro was on the brink. Can the Fed repeat that scenario now? I think it will be much, much more difficult to pull off this time.
And the reason I posted the link to the video about Operation Bagration is to consider the role of deception and maskirovka in that most successful Soviet offensive of the war. I believe we are seeing something similar now where Putin is running the risk of looking weak to the Fedorovs and Dugins while plotting a strike that principally is going to target the weak link between the U.S. and Germany, while stepping up enormously the Ivan Chih Minh Trail to the NAF. Perhaps Gazprom will respond to the McInsane Bulgaria provocation by demanding payment for gas henceforth in rubles or euros and no dollars whatsoever will be accepted. Russia IMO should also retaliate against the massive gold price smashdown that has hurt its producers by immediately filing litigation in London against the big four banks behind the ‘London fix’ alleging they have caused material damage to Russia’s gold miners. Finally, Putin himself should fly to NYC to inaugurate Russia’s chairmanship of the UNSC on June 16 and give a speech in which he condemns in front of the whole world the humanitarian crisis the US-backed Kiev Nazis have created and tells the whole world he has personally met with refugees from Novorossiya. Let those bitches Rice, Nuland and Psaki all squirm in their seats listening to Putin calmly catalogue the atrocities Kiev forces have committed and warn Ukraine that the individual officers who ordered these war crimes including targeting of civilian infrastructure will be held accountable.
Then and only then with the world beginning to question Kiev and the MSM Narrative crumbling in Europe if not the U.S. will it be time to consider the direct military options. In the meantime over the next week and a half, Putin must give the NAF heavy weaponry and radar guided SAMs to bloody the Nazi Guard and Ukrainian Air Force with first.
American Kulak
According to Diana Johnstone who did an excellent analysis of the Balkan conflict:
“Putin is widely credited as being the best chess player, who won the first round of the Ukrainian crisis. He has no doubt done the best he could, faced with the crisis foisted on him. But the U.S. has whole ranks of pawns which Putin does not have. And this is not only a chess game, but chess combined with poker combined with Russian roulette. The United States is ready to take risks that the more prudent Russian leaders prefer to avoid… as long as possible.”
Washington’s Iron Curtain — Diana Johnstone.
http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2014/06/08/washingtons-iron-curtain-diana-johnstone/
I wonder if Putin was waiting for the inauguration and to see what Poroshenko would do. Putin now has his answer – not to mention that Poroshenko is apparently a big fat liar since it was reported that he told Putin, at Normandy, that he was going to stop the violence. You may recall that a while ago Putin made a statement like (paraphrase), “Just let them try to kill women and children…”. Well, they have.
So,to recap:
UA now has a president that Putin said he would recognize as legit.
That president is continuing the slaughter.
He lied to Putin at Normandy.
While I am sympathetic to all of the very good reasons that Russia would stay out of this mess, Putin’s statement of “let them try to…” now is especially significant. He indicated he wouldn’t stand by for what’s happening. It’s matter of does he mean what he says. He strikes me as a man who DOES mean what he says. At the very least (and probably most prudent), Russia needs to start sending in LOTS of military and humanitarian supplies.
My apologies to Saker et al for the double post…not sure how that happened in the ‘prove your not a robot’ text entry.
The bottom line is the moral high ground is not something to toss away lightly. Even if our lying MSM insist it’s all Putin’s fault and the Ukrainians can’t be faulted for turning Slovyiansk into Grozny 2.0 and the Russians are big hypocrites. People with brains are still going to wonder how if the targets are ‘terrorists’ shelling schools, hospitals, churches, and markets is going to win hearts and minds back for Ukraine.
American Kulak
Long-time reader, first time poster here.
I would like to bring to your attention the fact that the whole ukrainian army/us mercs/cia/polish adventurists have been stalemated for many weeks at Slaviansk, and stalemated by whom?
Irregular light infantry, armed with sMG`s and rifles, with a sprinkling of manpads and assorted short-range antitank weapons.
After the utterly disastrous offensive phase between 2-12 May, this coalition of the unwilling led by the unable have achieved exactly zero and is reduced to timidly shoot their artillery, when waiting for succor from their paymasters.
Long may they wait.
I wasn’t surprised by the piglet’s and the Euros’ total subservience to the neocons.
Dugin turned out to have been wrong about his “10 days” prediction. He has pretty much acknowledged it now. I knew it was unlikely when he predicted it, but still there was a little hope.
I looked at some Western news outlets today – almost nothing about the horror in Slaviansk. It’s scary to imagine how much news of this sort about other countries I miss because I don’t know those countries’ languages and cultures. I don’t have to rely on Western reporting about the Ukraine because I know Russian. But if this was happening in Thailand or wherever, and Western media decided that it was against its interests to report on it, I’d know nothing.
I think it was at the end of April that Putin sent troops to the Ukrainian border and then changed his mind at the last minute. So at that point an intervention looked feasible to him. But after Odessa, the tanks, the airstrikes, etc. it didn’t. Probably still doesn’t. What changed? I’d like to see some theories. If he was ready to do it in late April, before most of the violence had occurred, why not now?
Porky Poroshenko was never going to choose to make things better or negotiate a reasonable resolution to this. He has been a US asset for years. He is a puppet.
All decisions for him are made in Washington, including the war now being waged against civilians in South/East Ukraine.
I agree with those of you who say that time is against Poroshenko: he has been declaring left and right about his eagerness to sign an agreement with the EU (he even said that he’s holding the pen in his hand), but look at Laurent Fabius’ answer:
http://russian.rt.com/article/35650
http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_06_08/Most-European-countries-not-ready-for-Ukraine-to-join-EU-Frances-FM-2710
Strategies, tactics and geopolitical maneuvres aside, I just *hope* that something happens to help these poor people in Novorossiya. I feel so helpless, sad and angry watching people and children suffer and getting slaughtered while Ukie Nazis take pictures smiling, holding a severed arm. And Obama, Kerry, McCain and Biden comfortably sleeping in a warm bed and congratulating each other on the success of their “cunning” plans. Sorry, I’m in a deep “gloom and doom” mood.
Why are Ukranian pilots or mechanic tech side enjoying the war
why not make the choice to show up for murder…..maybe just that
or kidnap
The US NATO extortion racket shows up with its mercs and its
party in Turkey and then murder in Syria
Syrian agents should have been bumping these off and hotel
owners to send a message
Ukrainians need to step up now….why should Russia send agents and
special forces?
Maybe its time to go after the aggressors….not hide and wait
“I hear that Poroshenko has now announced that combats should stop this week”
I understood that to mean that Poroshenko hopes to achieve total victory in a few days.
I think something invisible to all of us is taking place. We base our analysis of the current situation only on the information that is available to us, which is, let’s face it, very limited. Once we get this information, we try to make sense of it and fill in the gaps with intuition and some form of historic-comparative knowledge. Looking at the past history of Russia, it is clear how often and how much this country was willing to scarify, in order to win the final battle for its ultimate survival. Napoleon was in Moscow, Germans got really close, Communists were trying to destroy it from within for almost 100 years, etc, etc… and yet Russia is still there, still huge and still rising regardless of how historians interpret those events.
I guess over the centuries, the mixture of Vikings, Mongols and some local, native tribes created a blend of characters that cannot be easily classified and therefore reliably predicted, hence the w. Churchill’s famous utterance ” Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. There is this “5th element” (perhaps, the spirit of Rus is a more appropriate term), that cannot be analyzed and comprehended logically. It is full of contradictions and logic defying powers.
Since the beginning of this conflict, I almost entirely lost my ability to sleep and desperately want some kind of conclusion, some kind of reassuring end to this whole madness. We all know what is at stake here.
Dear Mr. Saker,
I am fairly new to your blog, 3 months. Something you wrote ….. in Russia, they saddle up the horse slow, but ride fast.
Mr. Putin needs to give Mr. Poroshenko a few days to end the atrocities. the UK’s influential newspaper Telegraph online published today June 08 2014 this not totally one –sided piece –on the ground reporting:
Ukraine must correct its chaotic response
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10885410/Ukraine-must-correct-its-chaotic-response.html
“The yellow and blue stripes of Ukraine’s national flag are designed to symbolise a happy union between golden fields and the summer sky. At the moment, the sweeping plains of Donetsk do indeed resemble this vision of idyllic harmony – until, that is, you run into a checkpoint manned by pro-Russian rebels or Ukrainian soldiers.
You might expect the insurgents to be tense and fearful, but I’ve usually found the army to be more on edge. At one roadblock, a suspicious soldier with blazing blue eyes inquired where we had come from and where we were going. Then he abruptly asked my driver: “And what is your opinion of separatism?” When a teenage member of a national army demands to know the political views of the people he is paid to protect, then you know things are going wrong. And the signs are that the “anti-terrorist” operation mounted by Ukraine’s security forces to recapture the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk is coming off the rails.
That has important consequences for the West’s response to Ukraine’s crisis. Put bluntly, we cannot simply place the burden on Vladimir Putin to end the killing. Petro Poroshenko, the newly elected president of Ukraine who took office on Saturday, must also correct his government’s mistakes.
[.}The problem is not Ukraine’s willingness to fight the rebellion, but the clumsy and heavy-handed way in which it is being done. The events of the past week provide a terrible illustration. Last Monday, eight people were killed by an explosion inside an occupied government building in Luhansk, which now serves as a rebel headquarters. Video footage showed unarmed men and women in civilian clothes, apparently passers-by, lying dead or writhing in bloodstained agony.”[.]
One day later, a hospital was badly damaged when the army recaptured the town of Krasny Liman. The walls of the building were pockmarked with bullet holes and almost every window was blown out. At least one person is known to have been killed inside.
Meanwhile, hardly a day goes by without mortar bombs exploding on or near civilian homes in rebel-held areas.
If those are incidents of heavy-handedness, other military operations have simply been incompetent.[.]
more– please read the entire post
(emphasis mine)
Anon Mongoose
Steady yourself Saker. Check out “Heralding the Rise of Russia” (http://theriseofrussia.blogspot.co.uk/), which provides an Armenian-Russian analysis comparable with your own.
Saker —
http://robinwestenra.blogspot.com/2014/06/inauguration-of-chocolate-king-and-war.html?showComment=1402187340640&m=1
Steve Quayle, a blogger based in Montana (I think he and Dr. Steve Pieczenik the former Tom Clancy co-author who was the real life inspiration for ‘Jack Ryan’) linked to a post that exercepted your article about Mr. Poroshenko’s ultimatum inaugural speech.
Which is ironic considering Mr. Quayle has often warned of Russian troop sightings inside CONUS all over the place. But Quayle understands too the NWO is setting the USA up to be the bad guy and for a lot of nations — including Germany he says — to cheer America’s downfall because the current elite is going to make the US as he says either a punchline or ‘a hissing sound’ to the world. Quayle views this as God Almighty’s Judgement and I can’t say I can disagree with him on that even if he is no Orthodox Christian but an Evangelical independent on his own somewhere trying in vain to run his own church with communion over the air waves.
American Kulak
Faith is hanging onto what you know to be true when feelings are telling you the opposite. Especially when those feelings are fearful
The intelligence was blind to so much information.
It’s part of a song lyric of all “Initial Capital”.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuyEYNGCBkw
:-)
(by Proftel)
I’d like to see the PAMG slaughter the nazis and their leadership, as well.
But I think such revenge will be much sweeter if carried out by Novorussians.
The nazis are not any more effective now than they were, in fact, they are in a serious decline. All they really seem capable of is shelling civilian areas with artillery kept out of reach of Novorussian forces. When the nazis meet Novorussians, they tend to lose, unless the odds greatly favour them. Beyond the zionazis having their “legit” regime in the Ukraine now with Poroshenko for their propaganda purposes, I don’t see how he changes things on the ground. With or without him, they, the zionazis, would still be increasing their terrorist pressure on Novorossya, because that is what the “time to go all out and get Russia” plan calls for.
If Russia “gives” Novorussia the means to get at the artillery shelling them, increase the ability of Novorussia to tackle air and armour attacks, provides detailed intelligence and helps with manpower, Novorussia will have no problem eradicating the nazis. All of this being done clandestinely as much as possible. Probably a lot of it, the Russians are already doing. Give the Novorussians what they need, and they will clean house in the Ukraine.
Personally, I am not surprised by Poroshenko, it was quite obvious the cocksuck was an Israeli-American bitchboi from the beginning since they chose him to be their frontman in the Ukraine. It’s quite obvious he hates Putin, probably all the Russian government, from the way he looks at Putin in photos. The Russian government blocked sales of his “chocolate” in Russia last year. To a fascist oligarch/mafia bum bandit like Poroshenko, that is unforgivable.
Likewise, I do not think there ever was any real resistance to the “get Russia” plan among the Euro section of the NWO. Their bums are used by the zionazis as much as those of their American and Anglo associates. Forget about the “Europe vs America” scenario, it’s a distractions and both answer to the same exact masters. There are a few Euro oligarchs probably still resisting, but these don’t have much say about it. Probably the only thing in Europe that could stop the zionazis is Europeans rebelling against them in the streets and essentially doing an Octobre Revolution or French Revolution with no quarter given to the oligarchs and their minions. Not very likely in the near future…
As for Israeli, American or Anglo populations…forget about it. They are beyond even the slim hope one might have for Europeans to cast aside their self reinforcing house slave mentality. Write them off entirely as part of any conscious solution. But their failings could still be used to neutralise them. And should be.
@ American Kulak,
Q: Then and only then with the world beginning to question Kiev and the MSM Narrative crumbling in Europe if not the U.S. will it be time to consider the direct military options.
I fully agree with what Putin/Russia should do. How come most people who participate in this forum have been wide awake for quite some time now. However, being awake doesn’t result in changing the world. What we, mere mortal peasants, can do, is to inform others and hope they draw their own conclusions and act accordingly.
Based upon mankind’s history, I don’t plan on holding my breath.
Is it my imagination or was Rowan Berkeley banned for being a little too prescient about what is more and more obviously Putin’s betrayal?
@ American Kulak,
The ‘moral high ground’ can only be ‘above’ a person, when viewed from a position that is much lower.
The blood of the glorious Ukrainian people is sacred to me and my first duty is to prevent it from being spilled
But that would be a lie, first and foremost because the man is not a Ukrainian. How could you expect him to say that?
Would you expect Rinat Akhmetov to say that when he is a Tatar? How jarring would it be for a descendant of the slavers of Ukraine to profess his love and devotion to the sacredness of Ukrainian life?
Essa música deveria ser o hino nas trincheiras de Novorrussia:
Metal Contra As Nuvens
Legião Urbana
I
Não sou escravo de ninguém
Ninguém, senhor do meu domínio
Sei o que devo defender
E, por valor eu tenho
E temo o que agora se desfaz
Viajamos sete léguas
Por entre abismos e florestas
Por Deus nunca me vi tão só
É a própria fé o que destrói
Estes são dias desleais
Eu sou metal, raio, relâmpago e trovão
Eu sou metal, eu sou o ouro em seu brasão
Eu sou metal, me sabe o sopro do dragão
Reconheço meu pesar
Quando tudo é traição
O que venho encontrar
É a virtude em outras mãos
Minha terra é a terra que é minha
E sempre será
Minha terra tem a lua, tem estrelas
E sempre terá
II
Quase acreditei na sua promessa
E o que vejo é fome e destruição
Perdi a minha sela e a minha espada
Perdi o meu castelo e minha princesa
Quase acreditei, quase acreditei
E, por honra, se existir verdade
Existem os tolos e existe o ladrão
E há quem se alimente do que é roubo
Mas vou guardar o meu tesouro
Caso você esteja mentindo
Olha o sopro do dragão
III
É a verdade o que assombra
O descaso que condena
A estupidez, o que destrói
Eu vejo tudo que se foi
E o que não existe mais
Tenho os sentidos já dormentes
O corpo quer, a alma entende
Esta é a terra-de-ninguém
Sei que devo resistir
Eu quero a espada em minhas mãos
Eu sou metal, raio, relâmpago e trovão
Eu sou metal, eu sou o ouro em seu brasão
Eu sou metal, me sabe o sopro do dragão
Não me entrego sem lutar
Tenho, ainda, coração
Não aprendi a me render
Que caia o inimigo então
IV
– Tudo passa, tudo passará
E nossa estória não estará pelo avesso
Assim, sem final feliz
Teremos coisas bonitas pra contar
E até lá, vamos viver
Temos muito ainda por fazer
Não olhe pra trás
Apenas começamos
O mundo começa agora
Apenas começamos
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1HPCYq5De8
(By Proftel)
Saker, when Russia acta, She must act with full force which means either full military fprce or full clendestine help with no haf effort. Quick victory is the aim.
Saker, when Russia acta, She must act with full force which means either full military force or full clendestine help with no half effort. Quick victory is the aim.
Saker,
I learned that post-Soviet analysis showed the people most adverse to Soviet policy were still following the same authoritarian thinking patterns. Evangelical pastors were copying behavior from communist party bosses.
Our cultural bias, even if we oppose the opinions and policies vehemently, draws us into similar behavioral patterns and patterns of expected action.
Draw back and think historically.
What are the key words by Putin?
Russian interests.
Russian lives.
Minimizing suffering for the Novorossiya people is not a key interest. There is as yet not enough identification of the Novorossiya region with the fighting elements. It is growing, but it needs to grow more for it to warrant putting other major Russian interests at risk.
The Novorossiya suffering is only at its beginning.
This week we will see Poroshenko’s control or lack of it, of the military and the national guard.
Will he deal with Parubii or sign his exit? If so, how will he control the nazi beast/national guard Paruibii created?
This, together with the Donbass Army advances, indicate that Putin could choose for clandestine ops if Poroshenko fails to de-escalate as promised.
We all know that even if there is Russian intervention, it would need to be quick and surgical. How quick, and how surgical?
I don’t think it will be troops. If anything, it will be small squads going in and out. And dpending on how long they expect this conflict to last, they may choose to fund and train the Donbass army instead.
“I shall never rest until each and every Ukrainian will feel that he/she is a precious part of an inclusive Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been diverse and multi-national (language issue).”
As an identitarian myself, I have to disagree with this choice of words. Instead of saying Ukraine is ‘diverse’, I would try to fit ‘Slavic’ or ‘Eastern Slavic’ into the speech. Something like, “I shall never rest until each and every Slav will feel that he/she is a precious member of an Ukrainian society whose historical roots have always been European and whose people are an integral part of the Eastern Slavic populations of the continent.”
Saker also said:
“In this case, he was simply reading the speech written for him by Uncle Shmuel.”
Funny that you mentioned it. Speech written by you-know-who, right? Take a brief look at this page to understand my opposition to the wording above:
http://www.heretical.com/British/traitors.html
Undoubtedly, it still goes today.
You have not posted my comment under the previous post and you have not answered my concerns. You yourself warned that the US is deliberately provoking war against Russia. This means that they are ready to join the dance. It is now up to Putin to avoid another WW, this time nuclear. The calculation of human and environmental cost of such a war is easy to imagine and much greater than the damage done by atrocities in SE Ukraine. I think that Putin’s position right now is to chose the lesser evil. Plus, Russia may not be able to win such confrontation. Putin knows it, or else he would not have backed up. Obama knows it, or else he would not push for a war on Russia. Your position is supporting the US efforts to provoke Russia and cause a major military confrontation between Russia and the West. Why don’t you want your readers to see this comment?
Regarding feeling frustrated and angry and worried.
President Putin is talented at playing exactly this sort of ‘game’, making the smart moves (sometimes unrevealed ones), and in the final move, winning. When I try to guess things like, what Russia might do here, or might do there, it doesn’t mean much. The reality is that the chess novice cannot anticipate the moves of the master.
This is his game, this is what he is good at. It makes sense to let him play it, and for us to decide that we’re not getting worked up and disturbed.
His style seems to be that of letting his opponent dig his own grave, and then watching him fall into it. Small push, maybe? And the whole time, the opponent thinks he’s digging a hole for some other purpose. We could be watching the creation of a very big hole. Let’s see how this goes.
Is this new ? Is this credible ? Normally I regard Itar Tass as a good source..Proshenko has shifted gears again and is now calling the slaughter in the East “unacceptable” and saying “it must end this week”…from Itar Tass dated today
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/735342
Why can’t Putin issue ultimatums of his own? I realize you can’t deport 5million Ukrainian guest workers overnight to Banderastan but why not institute tariffs. Cease cooperation and cultural, business exchange between the 2 countries
And turn off their gas! Not for non payment but as an incentive to a cease fire
Russian citizens should boycott, divest and sanction Ukrainian goods
Poroshenko shouldn’t make a single chocolate sale in Russia after his inaugural/declaration of war twofer speech
Dear Saker, you’re a bit nuts of late. You just two days ago were calling the Russian Communists agents of the US because they are pushing for Russian intervention, now you are doing something quite similar.
I think you’re concept of the Communists leaves much to be desired. They are loyal opposition, and quite supportive of Putin. Plus they want to see the best for those in the east – who seem driven in large part by the left.
very well explained…and i think Putin feels basically the same….the guy is no fool….and he is nothing you would want to fool with or push into a corner…but that is what the west has done….and so any action by Putin will be a much deserved reaction….a rightful and justified shock and awe the likes of which the west can only stand with open mouth…watching…drooling like the evil idiots they are.
“Probably the only thing in Europe that could stop the zionazis is Europeans rebelling against them in the streets and essentially doing an Octobre Revolution or French Revolution with no quarter given to the oligarchs and their minions. Not very likely in the near future…”
An economic collapse in Europe could lead to revolutions. Europe is already in an economic crisis. All that’s needed is a push. If Putin sends troops into eastern Ukraine and the neocons retaliate with total, all-encompassing sanctions, Europe will lose its gas. Yes, Russia’s economy will be hurt too, but Russia will be riding on a patriotic high even bigger than the one after the recovery of the Crimea. Europe will only get an economic hit. Who knows, it could be enough for a revolution or too.
Dear Saker:
We are all in this situation, hoping that Russia will put a stop to the bloodletting, even by setting in motion a massive “mowing of the grass” in terms of Ukrainian armor, artillery and airfields. The heroism of the people on the ground in Novorossiia like Igor Strelkov is truly staggering, but as you yourself have noted, they are too few.
I also remember all your warnings on this score over the past months, and they are still valid in spades. In the fifteen years that separate us from the end of the Eltsin era, Vladimir Vladimirovich and his supporters and collaborators have produced a vast improvement in Russia’s domestic and international situation. However, the arrangements that lie at the foundations of this project are still fragile – they have involved compromises with the structures of power that took root in the previous era – and the progress is still in many ways embryonic. As a Russian patriot, Putin and his team must have furthering this process of rebuilding as their sole focus. This is not to be endangered by the sorts of immediate and dangerous confrontation – I repeat immediate – to which Russia is obviously being provoked.
Yet history – in spite of Fukuyama – does not cease to unfold.
And in the final analysis, the Ukies simply won’t be able to change their geography and move to Florida. Further, the sort of hatreds and desire for revenge that are being born and set in iron at this moment are going to make a unitary state in the Ukraine impossible to build. It will remain, perhaps, a state, but it will now never be a nation. After the events in Odessa of May 2 and subsequent events, there can now never be a “Ukrainian people”, if there ever was one. The situation will not improve when “General Winter” and “Colonel Hyperinflation” arrive.
The Russian State is many centuries old, and its architects, beginning with Ivan III Vasilievich, always knew how to play the “long game,” coldly and without emotion. They had a powerful conception of the “state interest” – its role in the life of the nation – which they held in trust, ultimately, for the Russian people. That State collapsed and almost disappeared twice in the twentieth century, and the consequences, each time, have been disastrous for Russia, for Russians and all those who wish them well.
It is this monumental effort for Russia’s rehabilitation in the present circumstances that is in the balance, I think. Given his powerful sense of history, Vladimir Vladimirovich will weigh all his options against the very real dangers to this project. It is hardly weakness: it’s a prudence that is obligatory for a leader of men.
Hi Josh V,
I will take the liberty of a response. What is Russia’s interest? Yes, a humanitarian interest in a kindred people but there is much more at stake I think. The US has basically said, with its actions and through it diplomats, that Russia can have no interest in what happens in neighboring states – if NATO wants to put missiles in Ukraine then Russia must accept this. If the US engineers a coup in a neighboring state and installs a hostile government that will kick the Russians out of Sevastopol then Russia must accept this. If part of the Ukrainian population rises up against the junta then the US can order its puppets to wipe them out and Russia can do nothing. Russia must give back Crimea to Ukraine and give up their base there. Russia must back down on Syria and allow Assad to be overthrown by the jihadists. Russia must allow the US to dictate the price of natural gas and determine to whom it can be sold – must I go on?
The opponent uses blackmail, extortion, bribery, covert military operations, economic sanctions, arms opponents, threatens any allies who oppose it will, and wields the implied threat of a nuclear strike….
We will see now how this plays out.
the pessimist
“Napoleon was in Moscow, Germans got really close, Communists were trying to destroy it from within for almost 100 years, etc, etc… and yet Russia is still there”
I’m sorry, but this is utter b.s. It was partly those communists who died by the millions to prevent the Germans from destroying their motherland. It was partly those communists who worked like dogs to build the country during the 1930s and brought it peace and prosperity in the post-war years.
The Russian Revoltion was a epoch making moment. It was those workers who fought in the Red Army to defend Russia from foreign invasion and the Czar’s (a German) armies, and it was that same Red Army who threw back Hitler under the banner of the hammer and sickle.
You cannot separate the communists from Russia – and those who try and do so demean the great history of both. The first way they will attack Russia is to attack her history. And you are helping in that, sir.
@”But the EU leaders did, again, show that as soon as Uncle Shmuel shows up they turn into the “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”.
That this is a “family affair” of the Khazars is shown by the jumping on the anti-Putin bandwagon (don’t forget that he was declared the Haman of the year!) by two other “great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies”, the overseers of the British-Israelite colonies of Canada and Australia:
“TONY Abbott has sharpened his criticism of Vladimir Putin to support a blistering attack on the Russian president, amid growing concern over Moscow’s incursions into the Ukraine…
Hours after Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper called Mr Putin an “extreme nationalist” and imperialist, Mr Abbott backed the criticism and expressed concerns of his own about the “affront” to international stability from Russia’s actions” (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/tony-abbott-calls-russia-a-bully-as-he-steps-up-criticisms-over-ukraine/story-fn59nm2j-1226948009543#mm-premium).
Wow! Abbott is a “knight of the Round Table” (i.e. a Rhodes Scholar). Not that his presumtive competitors would be any better Malcolm Turnbull is a Round tabler also. Labor leaders boast that they have “Israel in their DNA”!
@ Robert Nelson @ 1:47
We know that Putin has some influence with Poroshenko. I think maybe we’re beginning to see it..
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/735342
That Poroshenko would even use this kind of language now suggests he’s either not totally under the thumb of the US (These words certainly DID NOT come from the US), and or He’s feeling the Heat from Russia, which at the end of the day, he knows he must fear more than the US..this is the fact that nobody remembers..the US WILL NOT deploy its own forces in support of its regime in Ukraine. Some people seem to think the US is ready to dive in with the 82’d Airborne. Not going to happen…and remember the US apparently lost more than one higher level “advisor” along with General Nazi in the, apparent, shootdown incident. Putin has already laid down his own “red line” ..NATO will not deploy in Ukraine. Poroshenko has to work with these facts. He either continues all out with a war he cannot win alone, or he makes real concessions and negotiates. He knows that Russia is willing to offer substantial help to Ukraine if they will return to sanity. This is real money for normalizing the situation..The US/EU axis is offering some what if-maybe funny money and IMF demands for more war and chaos..Poroshenko is not a lunatic whatever else he may be. He also knows that he can only strengthen Ukraine position being being a bit more coy..Maidan is not going to play out a second time.
“guest77 said…
Dear Saker, you’re a bit nuts of late. You just two days ago were calling the Russian Communists agents of the US because they are pushing for Russian intervention, now you are doing something quite similar.”
It ain’t all about our host here, to experience swings of emotion is only human, particularly for a guy with teenage children and a full time job. I think we should all lighten up on Saker and as I learned from my own little ranting about the Bundy episode with all the idiocy on both sides of that stand off, on each other. I do not think the Russian Communists are all secretly in the employ of the State Dept. or that NTV or Channel 1 are full of Western 5th Columnists as Fedorov rants, but I do think all the ‘Putin is blowing it’ comments are bound to be amplified by the real fedtrolls/Globalist/Team Evil Noise Machine. As will be simultaneously the ‘Putin is going to start WW3 by rolling into the Donbass’ (not really). Pincer movements have been the hallmarks of all warfare including psyops since Cannae what else is new? The Empire wants to attack us from all sides, most of all and most neglected spiritually. Remember Poroshenko is just a puppet of the CIA who run Obama who in turn are also puppets of the Bilderbergers or Council on Foreign Relations or the 300 or 5 families. Above them at the apex of the pyramid are the powers and principalities that report to Satan himself, though I’m sure there is so Satanic possession among the elites too as Hitler was definitely demon possessed to have escaped so many assassination attempts even the SS and Gestapo couldn’t possibly have found. Remember the final war is not with flesh and blood and the ultimate Enemy of Mankind has already been defeated by the Son of Man.
American Kulak
Last comment of the evening for me I promise — if financial war is being waged on Russia with Bulgaria’s betrayal as yet the latest example, it’s time to wage financial war back. And that means busting the naked gold shorts, announcing together with the Chinese a new round of gold buying while demanding PHYSICAL DELIVERY from the Comex. If they can’t cough it up by insist on offering cash expose the fraudster bastards and their 3 card gold monti game for what it is. Show that the Western banksters are naked and have been nakedly shorting for a while. The sudden rocketing in price for gold and Russia/China’s inability to buy it cheaply will be more than offset by the increase in value of their holdings, which are already combined the largest in the world. The war on the market cap of all gold miners in the BRICS would also end in humiliating defeat for the banksters who were hoping to get all those assets from Magadan to Capetown on the cheap.
American Kulak
Well, Saker, at this point we can do what you ask, pray for the safety of the people of Novorussiya, and, that Putin doesn’t betray them. Women and children are being killed.
Dear Saker,
The forces of darkness are so right out in the open that if one is not frightened, then they are dead.
The atrocities being committed on these beautiful people is heartbreaking to say the least.
To hear of these lunatic leaders of the us laughing at this inauguration while the killing of innocent lives had been kicked up a notch, makes me sick beyond words could express. God bless the innocent of the Ukraine and God damn these evil monsters!
I honestly believe that Mr.Putin will handle this situation as he dealt with the situation on Friday with utter humility (He totally represented!!). That was the most noble behavior I’ve witnessed in a long time. There was honor in that. Another character I do not ever witness in these evil leaders that represent us.
I also pray that Mr.Putin has mankinds very existence at heart (No one else seems to). He needs the WORLDS prayers now more than ever. God bless the world!
ps May the Lord bring peace to your anxiety!!
– from Nazi occupied Amerika
Novorossia is the future. But let’s not put it all on Russia, or Putin. Each man and woman across the globe is now part of the resistance. Ukraine, the EU and the US are imploding. So the war might take a long time. But this war is worth dying for. For some, it will be worth killing for.
– in pain for the Donbass, with contempt for the fascist pigs, with solidarity for the revolution
OK, Saker, maybe “change of heart” is not right words in this situation, and I also understand how you feel, how you hope thing had turned out differently. Don’t most of us feel same way?
The bottom line still is no matter what Russia do, the consequence of sanctions are same. In this context act the early the better.
Thanks to Gleb Bazov for translation.
As Igor Ivanovich Strelkov said today (someone else also said a few days ago here)http://www.twitlonger.com/show/n_1s22kua, by waiting, now it is much bigger problem for RF:
“In any event, neither a hundred (100). nor even a thousand (1000) “spetsnaz” troops (even if they are “Alpha-Rambo” times three) will be able to match the forces of the [Ukrainian] regular army. The idiot advisors in Kremlin have let the situation fester to the point where they face an all-or-nothing choice: either they will give up Novorossiya to the enemy for good, or [Russia] will have to fight for it at full strength. There is no third choice anymore – all other possibilities have been successfully “chewed with snot” in the past 1.5 months.”
Dear Saker,
While the latest developments are indeed very unfortunate, they do provide an opportunity for this blog, namely, to provide clear evidence of Poroshenko’s duplicity. The Western MSM isn’t covering this much, and so if you and/or the readers of this blog can provide images, video, etc., that alone would be very helpful. As much as I appreciate reading Juan’s situation reports, they generally don’t come with links to images or videos.
Thanks
Tired of seeing the USA….Nazi NATO
The misersable house of Saud
and Farrginnn Isreal
get away with it decade after decade
Maybe we all deserve this tree of woe
Maybe we are Cowards….and bitches for bankers
I don’t see any purpose served by Russia’s invasion and to the contrary I think it blows the whole game. Putin hasn’t betrayed anyone, he’s totally engaged in this fight as a judoka.
I think he pulled back from the border for multiple reasons, one of which may well have been to give the US more rope to hang itself, which it has taken with both hands, falling into the trap by increasing the atrocities. Putin will use his opponent’s own energy to throw his opponent down. He knows how to fight, and he’s in a life and death battle right now for potentially the survival of all life on Earth.
On the other hand, Ukraine can easily become another Vietnam for the US, and I suspect the best outcome would be for the US itself to weary of its involvement, and retire. Everyone says these neocons never give up etc, but we’ll see.
Strelkov in that excellent interview translated yesterday has said the Ukes can’t destroy the resistance no matter how many civilians they kill. In other words, the resistance will endure until the Ukes are all dead if that’s what it takes. He now needs more hardware to take out the artillery and tanks – why hasn’t Russia given him this? Almost as if Russia doesn’t want the resistance to end the battle too soon, before the ordinary populace has been roused by the atrocities into total unified opposition to the Kiev regime.
Also Russia is tightening up the border – nothing careless or fatalistic about any of its moves, even with brothers on the other side, Russia will control its border, just as it controls this battle.
And I see now that Putin’s visit to Normandy was supremely useful, to meet with France and Germany (arguably the heart of the EU) and unite with them to threaten Poro. This speaks volumes.
Russia won’t invade. Strelkov will continue to get only what he needs to keep it things at a stalemate. If he gets enough to take the battle to the Ukes, I’ll be surprised but I’d bet that’s as far as Russia will escalate at this point.
Something has yet to happen at the Kiev end of things, with the US – we don’t know what they’re going to do next. We’ll have to see how this ultimatum of one week to finish the fighting plays out.
M.P. Yaroslav Nilov proposes an educational photo exhibit of the atrocities of the Ukraine, to raise consciousness. This is all well & good, but it needs to be done on the Internet as well. Can someone suggest this to him, help get it together?
My post disappeared. So this may be a duplicated re-write.
While we are wondering whether Mr. Putin is looking weak…. here is a very interesting article in the influential financial newspaper, Financial Times read worldwide by tptb and CEOs.
Masterly Russian operations in Ukraine leave Nato one step behind
West’s security officials give grudging praise to Moscow tactics
“The running theme of Nato’s criticism of Russia is that when it comes to Ukraine, the Kremlin has slipped back into a cold war mentality.
But while Russia’s strategic thinking might recall the ruthless geopolitics of the past century, its tactics for military analysts have been a model of warfare in the 21st, employing everything from small groups of unidentifiable specialist personnel to cyber warfare.
In more than a dozen interviews, planners, security officials and members of the intelligence community have spoken of Moscow with universal, if grudging, praise.
Tactically, they say, Russia has waged a dexterous and comprehensive campaign, and has been one step ahead at every turn. The Kremlin’s operations on the ground have been “masterly”, said one.
“I have been impressed. The eminent deniability of it all – this has been an exactly and beautifully calibrated operation . . . silent but deadly effective,” said Jonathan Eyal, international director of the Royal United Services Institute in London. The west “has been off-guard from day one”.
[.]
(registration required)
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a5829d60-ed48-11e3-8a1e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz346XYeHzI
(Emphasis mine)
Follow the money. Sanctions, Costs for whose account? Repeat: “The west has been off-guard from day one”
The second article at FT: Russia eyes paying for trade in renminbi
Western sanctions fears push companies to Asian currencies
Anon Mongoose
Mr. Saker,
I applaud your passion and diligence, but I have a question;
Has it occurred to you that Barack H. Obama and Vladimir V. Putin are actually actors in an elaborate, global play?
If true, it would make what otherwise seems non-sensical, make perfect sense.
Both are beholden to bankers, you know. I’m just asking if this thought has crossed your mind.
@Rob BardinLHas it occurred to you that Barack H. Obama and Vladimir V. Putin are actually actors in an elaborate, global play?
Honestly? No. Not for one second. I see no evidence for that and the kind of pain Putin has already inflicted on the Empire, not to mention the Empire’s hatred for him, tell me that this is absolutely not the case.
Kind regards,
The Saker
Saker,
With all due respect to you & the others call for immediate Russian intervention, all of you need to take a chill pill :)
In your rant you brought up the Bosnian Serbs. Great. It’s a subject in my wheel house.
Couple of questions for all of you:
How many fighter did the VRS have?
Now how many fighters does the NDF have?
When the Bosnian Croats & fascist Bosnian Muslims started shelling, burning, killing, raping, etc., Bosnian Serb villages, towns, etc., the ranks of the VRS & various paramilitaries swelled with a lot of pissed off Bosnian Serbs. They didn’t go crying to the Serbs in Serbia proper to come over & do the fighting for them so they can hide behind their baba’s skirts.
So WTF is the problem with the overwhelming majority of guys in Novorossia??
Their villages, towns & cities are being shelled & attacked by Nazis, yet they want to sit this one out???
Meezer
The article cited by Mongoose above and many others that are linked here from time to time that show western media and sites like CounterPunch crediting Russia for playing the war in Ukraine smart, all paint the conflict as being between Kiev and Russia and no mention is ever made of the US.
These articles are all subtle disinformation for the ” chattering classes” as you would, or should, expect from these media sites.
Rob Bardin said Both are beholden to bankers, you know. I’m just asking if this thought has crossed your mind.
One of the first things Putin did when he came to power was to pay off the IMF loans and get rid of their influence for good. When the state owned central bank, Bank of Russia, would not provide the finance he wanted to develop Russia, Putin used a small state owned development bank and extended its powers. How do you think Russia has pulled itself out of the banker/oligarch imposed third world hell in less than 15 years and without debt to western banks?
Putin has now appointed his ex assistant ( can’t remember her name right now, unfortunately), a very capable economist, to head the Bank of Russia so it should be “full steam ahead” from now on.
This resurgence of the Russian economy and the reasons for it are both a huge existential threats to the Jewish bankers. Added to this, of curse, is Russia and China’s move away from using $US which will cause loss of power and big inflation for the US I.e. Weaken the bankers further.
There is simply no way that Putin, and more importantly Russia, is beholden to any bankers or banks except their own government owned and controlled ones.
Dear Saker,
This blog and its comments are extremely valuable.
You made it possible.
Thank you!
I’m not sleeping much these days. Praying more. Trying in my small way to light a candle in some corners.
We are only human.
I mean no offence to anyone’s faith or beliefs, but here is mine:
!. God is Love.
2. Everything always changes.
3. What goes around comes around.
– Bic
I hate putting faith in leaders, I’ve seen my “left” friends repeatedly bitch slapped by Obama and my “right” friends turned into blathering caricatures of cognitive dissonance by George W Bush. So, tell me what in Putin’s long history of leadership would foreshadow his “folding”? I see nothing.
Dear Saker
Behind Poroshoko is America and America wants to wipe Russia off the map.
@ Anon,
Q: If he was ready to do it in late April, before most of the violence had occurred, why not now?
R:In poker terms, that was bluff and it worked, because, until the troops were withdrawn, there were ‘skirmishes.’
I think Putin has played has cards extremely well. They kicked him/Russia out of the G8, he still paid his respect to the fallen of WWII. He said he would recognize an elected entity in the Ukraine and he did. He does everything in such a way that nobody can point a finger at him and accuse him of any wrongdoing.I guess he will now give the head honcho next door plenty time to show the world [now that we have access to other news outlets, it doesn’t matter whether MSM presents us with yet another angle of Kartra$$ian’s behind, a twerking Cyrus or a shirtless Bieber] what kind of man he really is. And if the atrocities don’t stop, he [Putin] has all the moral right/s to intervene militarily.
The only problem; at what province does he stop?
So, all in all, I guess his current strategy is [given all the circumstances] the best one to follow.
Anon 00:30:
at the end of April that Putin sent troops to the Ukrainian border and then changed his mind at the last minute. So at that point an intervention looked feasible to him. But after Odessa, the tanks, the airstrikes, etc. it didn’t. Probably still doesn’t. What changed? I’d like to see some theories. If he was ready to do it in late April, before most of the violence had occurred, why not now?
Putin begn mass exercises in February and sent troops to the border in March.
The US sent USS Truxtun to the Black Sea to “conduct exercises” with the Romanian and Bulgarian Navies. Truxtun is nuclear “capable”, but was not so armed.
The Crimean scenario played out and Russia successfully annexed the peninsula via popular referendum without military action.
The US forward deployed 18 F15 and F16 planes to Poland and the Baltics with B61 tactical nuclear warheads to arm them. The deployment missions are (1) 6 planes strike St. Petersburg from the Baltics destroying Putin’s hometown. (2) 12 planes strike from Poland at Sevastopol to destroy the Black Sea fleet and at Russian field armies invading Ukraine. The deployment is in line with US/NATO security doctrine – tactical nuclear weaponry as immediate counter to a successful Russian military move.
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2014/02/us-nuclear-weapons-in-europe-critical-for-transatlantic-security
Following this threat, chaos in Donbass began in April.
The US diverted USS Donald Cook to the Black Sea. Like Truxtun, Cook is nuclear “capable”, but not so armed, having deployed in January.
Russia responded by buzzing Cook with a Sukhoi to state Russia would send her to the bottom in seconds. After Cook left, Putin began mass exercises at the border and constructing forward military positions, calling the US bluff and dismissing the threat of the the American warplanes in the Baltics and Poland. In essence Putin said “You are full of it, I will shoot down your 18 planes and their bombs and I will send you warship to the bottom of the Black Sea.”
The US responded with extreme beligerence in statements in late April/early May. With no change in Russian posture from threats, in mid-May the US sent USS Vella Gulf into the Black Sea. Vella Gulf deployed mid-March from Norfolk after the annexation of Crimea armed with much of the active complement of W80 strategic nuclear warheads for surface ships on its up to 122 Tomahawk cruise missiles and was scheduled to continue to the Black Sea after cover exercises with Britain in April. Vella Gulf is a floating Cuban Missile crisis off Crimea, capable of the annihilating Russia in less than 10 minutes. Each W80 nuclear warhead can destroy a city like Smolensk or Rostov, and the missiles can reach Moscow and St. Petersburg.
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/english/home/9766567.asp?scr=1
As Vella Gulf transited the Bosporous the Pentagon or White House called the Kremlin and threatened a strategic nuclear first strike in the event of an invasion, followed up about 20 minutes with a thermonuclear volley if necessary from the US mainland.
Putin immediately announced a troop pullback to be concluded around when Vella Gulf was due to leave the Black Sea, and this is where things stand now.
TV Cannel ‘Zvezda’ journalists are being held in the Kharkov Region. There are reasons to hope for their liberation in the nearest time
https://twitter.com/DRogozin/status/475533518911848448
FLASH NEWS:
“Star” Journalists released with active and personnal participation of Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
https://twitter.com/A_J_S_B/status/475753725966188544
Hmmmmm… When I read the first tweet earlier today I thought maybe there would be an intervention coming soon because of a for now hidden pretext(tapped phone call or something)… but maybe he was just alluding to the fact that they were working on it.
Saker – There’s a couple things I still don’t understand with your position here…
Regarding Poroshenko, while his words and deeds have indeed been quite disgusting, I can’t say I find them surprising. And I still am not convinced that this means he won’t still back down – especially given that, like you’ve noted, he’s a prostitute, not an ideologue.
It could well be that he feels he has to come out swinging with a bunch of tough talk and launching a renewed offensive in order to appease the local Ukra-Nazi crazies and his foreign backers before he backs down when forced to deal with the inevitable economic and military realities.
Regarding the military situation in Donbass, like I said earlier, I still don’t see why a direct full scale invasion would be needed when the same military objectives could be achieved through other means.
I’m pretty sure that with the intensified attacks on civilians by the Kiev regime the enlistment in the resistance forces has sky-rocketed. Reports like this seem to confirm that – https://www.facebook.com/TruthfromUkraine/posts/1508893236000690
So they simply need to be sent more sophisticated weapons to let them effectively take on the airforce, tanks, and artillery. And some irregular fighters from the Caucuses or wherever can come to help out. But much better for the resistance be maintained as primarily a local resistance rather than a “foreign” intervention.
The image of Russian tank columns crossing the border could have negative political consequences both within the Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe, so better to more fully exhaust other military options first.
Here in the US majority of ppl have already been brainwashed into seeing Putin as an invading Gaddafi of sorts. It’s appalling. So yes, any tanks rolling in, their footage would be used to justify almost anything short of a bomb. This already started months ago. Crimea was used to further brainwash people here that he was out to bring USSR back and is a dangerous criminal. Before that there was trumpeting of Pussy Riot stuff and anti gay law. The majority now sees him as a tyrant, crazy and now with ambitions of soviet grandeur. They would support almost anything if it was sold to them as : “we must stop him before he goes any further and takes Alaska”
As awful as all this is for Novorossiya and Ukraine, it has been a long time coming and needs to play out itself without direct intervention. A visible one would cause too much damage to Russia, and Putins first and foremost concern is with Russia. This is a provocation. Going in now would be suicide.
@ Meezer said…09 June, 2014 03:39
Sort of answer to Bosnian Serbs versus Ukrainian Russians differences you’ll find in my text
“Without firing a shot” Tragic Consequences
https://crazyivanreport.wordpress.com/2014/06/09/without-firing-a-shot-tragic-cosequencies/
PS – Check out this recent commentary from “Joaquin Flores,” who I find to be a very insightful analyst. He also points to a covert/proxy military strategy for Russia. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpqNmE7mdQ8&index=2&list=PL5WdALk2_ZNRTN8uFY-adsDaQ2XeRKJgV
Griever said 09 June, 2014 02:52
? Almost as if Russia doesn’t want the resistance to end the battle too soon, before the ordinary populace has been roused by the atrocities into total unified opposition to the Kiev regime.
Meezer 09 June, 2014 03:39
So WTF is the problem with the overwhelming majority of guys in Novorossia?? Their villages, towns & cities are being shelled & attacked by Nazis, yet they want to sit this one out???
_________________________________
Best Contributors Analysis to date, Novorussia needs to rise, the Russians are not seeing that, where are the 7 Million Novorussians? where is the unity?….dropping a Yes vote in a box (Putin even told them to hold off)and going back home for a coffee is not the makings of an Independent State,,Crimea had Russian troops, Donbas does not and Russia is holding itself out as an adherent to International Law and getting respect for it, look at the way they handled Syria,,,Novorussia must realize that only overwhelming groundswell support will work….they can not put Russia and the world at risk….
Nope. Just because Goldman & minions are trying ever harder to force Russia to action doesn’t mean Russia’s suddenly going to decide it’s time to get stupid and take the bait.
I see them increasing covert support. Donbas antifa is certainly in with a fighting chance, not in desperate or immediate need for daddy to come save them.
The United States is upping the ante over Ukraine. I am not so sure that a hot war can be avoided if the United States and NATO decide to wage one. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-08/us-air-force-sends-2-b-2-stealth-bombers-uk
It si hard time the Russian Army melted the… “Chocolate”!
To all those mentioning how few fighters the resistance has, it is worth looking into Strelkov’s words about how they have to turn people away due to a lack of basic fighting supplies. He also pointed out how they needed to have the rear lines protected in order to mobilize. There have to be safe areas to go and organize.
But, Saker, we basically surmised that NATO was going to escalate as much as possible, till it was stopped. Since Russia couldn’t get a coup or anything organized, the current situation was totally to be expected. You seem to be saying that Novorossiya can’t hold on – but this was predictable, unless Russia gave aid or arranged for massive supplies from Ukrainian military bases.
While I admire this blog and Saker’s dedication, I have never agreed with the notion that Kiev gang, installed and backed by my accursed government, is disintegrating before our eyes. And, while I have curbed my tongue in this forum, I have never trusted Putin to do his moral duty to protect thousands and thousands of innocent civilians–men,women,children– many of Russian descent– from terrible suffering and massacre that lies before them. Without water the city of Slavyansk cannot hold; the situation is absolutely desperate.Fighting men can probably break out if they choose, but God help those left behind. Another Sebrenica–indeed Sebrenica writ large–may be in prospect.
The worst of this is that it would have taken very little–probably no more than evidence that Moscow meant what it said–to have deterred the attack. Even now, an ultimatum combined with overflights could–as the Brits put it “see them off”.The next few hours will tell us what Putin is made of. I am hopeful, but not sanguine.
The Ukrainian forces are now perfectly deployed to be scooped up. The use of airborn/airmobile units to block the major roads to their rear combined with a mechanized thrust west across northern Lugansk to the embattled cities, would create panic and mass surrender by conscripts,wild flight by the rest. No bloodbath necessary.
I hope, hope –as most of you are also hoping–that this–or something akin to it–is what we shall see.
Tom
Putin is cold blooded, which is a good thing on this case. A few hundred deaths, across the border, to him are better than thousands or millions if this escalates, which is what would happen if Russia overtly stepped in. Cold, yeah. Smart? Yeah. Internal conflict vs full on war? You betcha. He won’t blink and this is why there is a chance for Russia to get through this.
There seems to be a bipolar leap from celebrating Putin’s brilliance-in-inaction to calling fort his head unless he unleashes WWIII;
the answer is that there is much that can be done in terms of rhetoric, media battles, playing the gas card etc.
Putin has yet to go on record and say that people who are Russian and who want to be a part of Russia will be protected by the full power of the Russian State. Russia may not be able to defeat the West in an expeditionary battle, but it can annihilate the West with ICBMs if the West doesn’t respect honorable terms.
Putin has yet to call out the New World Order in a way that those in the West sick of their own governments can sympathize with. He speaks as a Russian, not as a citizen of the world.
There will be a World Order, make no mistake. The question is what kind? Putin needs to rise to the equation and take the mantle of leadership of the world and define an honorable world order worth fighting and dying for.
Do you want the psychopaths in charge now to have robotics, AI, and total control over humanity? I don’t. There are fates worse than WWIII.
@ guest77: “I think your concept of the Communists leaves much to be desired. They are a loyal opposition, and quite supportive of Putin. Plus they want to see the best for those in the east – who seem driven in large part by the left.”
I agree.
The NWO is another testimony of the evil inherent in the capitalist economic system, which holds that private vices are public virtues.
Economically, we are all slaves (re Belloc). But I would prefer to be a slave under Stalin’s National Communism, which shot thieving officials and hung foreign agents, than “free” in the Anglo-Protestant market system that goes by the name of liberalism.
Conservative that I am, I’ve never thought Marxism more relevant than it is today.
-Armenian Catholic
[Quote:]
Arab officials have been briefed in Moscow on the new emerging Russian national security doctrine ….
The doctrine holds that the US and its allies are engineering revolutions and uprisings in key areas around the world to destabilize governments and replace existing regimes in order to establish control and exploit natural resources. Furthermore, the doctrine treats the US as a dangerous nation that seeks to dismantle the Russian statehood.
High level military representatives from Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Lebanon, Syria and the United Arab Emirates were briefed at the third Moscow Conference on International Security on May 23 and 24.
http://www.defensenews.com/article/20140603/DEFREG04/306030028/Arab-Leaders-Briefed-New-Russia-Doctrine
Shaker, Here is a good read that won’t be on any western news sites. the CMD of the DonBass area spoke. Should give you some new insight.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-08/shadowy-commander-east-ukraine-insurgency-speaks