Dear friends,
I just received an email from Larchmonter 445 who is raising a very important question. With his permission, I have decided to share my reply with all of you.
Kind regards,
The Saker
——-
QUESTION:
Ukraine is becoming an American/NATO platform with no viable economy, a thoroughly corrupt junta-criminal government. It has lost most characteristics of a state. We know its economy is no longer functioning. It is on economic life-support.
Q: What in history does this colonization most remind you and what does it present as a permanent platform for the projection of US hegemony right next to Russia?
In the context of US cruise missiles into Poland and 100 US tanks into Latvia, also right on the Russian border, how do you interpret these developments?
Add, Canadian military police running the police in Kiev (security apparatus hardening, in my view) and 1000 US military advisers on the ground with Ukie troops, and inside the command and control of their military, I see this as the two proxy armies facing off behind a mere mask. Do you see the ‘boots on the ground’ as sacrifices the Hegemon is prepared to make (for surely the Russians don’t care who’s inside the battle zone they must dominant or they will be defeated)?
I interpret all the latest hardening of NATO surrounding the Russian border with Eastern Europe and the buildup internally (take over of the Ukie government in fact) as ominous and imminent to a shooting war to forever scar the Russian Federation as a menace to world stability.
The militia is paper thin mask over Russian military. Everyone understands that Russia cannot allow defeat or loss of ground. The Ukies, a proxy army of cannon fodder value, a mask over NATO and US mercenary contractors and some regular “advisers”.
The opposite side does not bear any such burden of ‘loss’. If the Ukies lose and refuse to fight anymore, Russia will be demonized and the battle for more military conflict will shift to some other hot zone. Therefore, the Hegemon cannot be defeated by defeat in Ukraine.
For your answer I hope you stick just to the military threat, the military challenge, the strategic values of moves and counter-moves. I think this situation is a changed scenario, and has upped the existential threat to Russia. But without military analysis, I don’t know if what I see is what I think I see.
Larchmonter 445
REPLY:
Military planners like to have options and contingency plans available for as many situations as possible. It just does not look good for a Chairman of the JCS to tell the President “no Sir, we never envisioned that situation”. In order to avoid that, the military will practice and plan for a lot of situation the vast majority of which will never happen.
Just recently, right at the end of the WWII, Anglo powers had at least THREE plans to wage war on the USSR: Operation Dropshot, Plan Totality and Operation Unthinkable. Here is some basic reminder of Wikipedia about what these operations were about:
Operation Dropshot: included mission profiles that would have used 300 nuclear bombs and 29,000 high-explosive bombs on 200 targets in 100 cities and towns to wipe out 85% of the Soviet Union’s industrial potential at a single stroke. Between 75 and 100 of the 300 nuclear weapons were targeted to destroy Soviet combat aircraft on the ground.
Plan Totality: earmarked 20 Soviet cities for obliteration in a first strike: Moscow, Gorki, Kuybyshev, Sverdlovsk, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Saratov, Kazan, Leningrad, Baku, Tashkent, Chelyabinsk, Nizhny Tagil, Magnitogorsk, Molotov, Tbilisi, Stalinsk, Grozny, Irkutsk, and Yaroslavl.
Operation Unthinkable: assumed a surprise attack by up to 47 British and American divisions in the area of Dresden, in the middle of Soviet lines.This represented almost a half of roughly 100 divisions (ca. 2.5 million men) available to the British, American and Canadian headquarters at that time. (…) The majority of any offensive operation would have been undertaken by American and British forces, as well as Polish forces and up to 100,000 German Wehrmacht soldiers.
I am not making these things up, you can look it up for yourself on Wikipedia and elsewhere. This is the Anglo idea of how you deal with “Russian allies”: you stab them in the back with a surprise nuclear attack, you obliterate most of their cities and you launch the Nazi Wehrmacht against them.
With “allies” like these, who needs enemies?!
Still, it did not happen. Oh, not because these “beacons of democracy” had any scruples, but for far more mundane reasons: in all three cases the risks were considered far too great and the chances of success too little. Now here is the good news: some 70 years later the chances of victory against Russia are even far smaller and the risks quite literally infinitely bigger.
First, in 1945 a surprise attack was theoretically possible. Today it is categorically impossible. Second, in 1945 the Anglos had a monopoly on nuclear weapons. Today Russia actually enjoys a superiority in the quality and quantity of nuclear weapons. Third, while in 1945 the Soviets could not strike at the US “homeland” itself, now Russia can destroy every single major city in the USA. The only thing which has not changed is this: just as in 1945 the Soviet military could have made minced meat out of Anglo forces so the modern Russian military is far more powerful and NATO forces in Europe.
On three occasions this year I have tried to explain why the US/NATO does not have a military option in the Ukraine (see Ukraine SITREP March 11, 13:50 EST (and some debunking); Remembering the important lessons of the Cold War and Thinking the unthinkable) and I will not repeat it all here again. I will just point you to the US preparations for Desert Shield and Desert Storm which saw a massive US and allied move of equipment and forces into the KSA which lasted many months before the attack on Iraq could take place. Moving a few air wings around or sending tanks to Latvia is nowhere near the kind of massive effort which would be needed to prepare for an attack on Russia.
Furthermore, in modern warfare the US does not need the Ukraine (or even Europe) to project its power. In fact, getting closer to Russia is actually dangerous for US forces and systems which are quite capable of striking Russia from afar, unless of course you are seriously considering a US Army ground offensive in the Ukraine which the US/NATO are currently unable to execute due to a huge shortage of forces for such a major operation.
Also, keep in mind that all these “NATO” armies are more or less a joke. If you really want to be serious to threaten Russia only the US really has the means to do so, the rest of the NATO ‘alliance’ is primarily a political one. The Poles and Estonians can “play NATO” all they want, but they are no more relevant than the Netherlands or Italy (less in fact).
We all saw what the US/NATO airpower can do in the best possible conditions in Kosovo: nothing. And that is going against 1970 Russian air defenses. You can imagine what the same airpower would do against modern 2014 Russian Air Defenses. Same thing for air-to-air: it is one thing to fly against early export version of the MiG-29 and quite another to take on SU-35s and MiG-31BMs (or even SU-27s modernized to SM1/SM2 standards). And keep in mind that NATO has extremely weak and old air defenses. Once the Russian Air Force begins striking NATO ground forces with SU-34s escorted by SU-35 it will get very ugly very fast, at least for NATO. Russia also has the advantage in artillery, in tactical ballistic and cruise missiles, in anti-tank weapons, in airborne tactical cruise missiles and many other aspects of warfare. But most importantly, I also firmly believe that the single most important part of any military – the foot-solider – is far more capable and way tougher in the Russian military then in any NATO country. True, the US/NATO still have superior communications, including battlefield communications and generally better reconnaissance capabilities, but that would not be enough to tip the balance.
But even if we give the US/NATO the advantage in every single assumption, we know that official Russian military doctrine clearly states in if the Russian conventional forces are not sufficient to protect Russia, tactical nuclear forces would be used. So it is hard to imagine what kind of “victory” US/NATO forces would try to achieve.
For all these reasons I do not believe that a US/NATO attack on Russia will happen.
The move of military forces which is being observed in various locations in Europe and the USA serve a very different purpose: to show in “political terms” that the US and NATO are “serious” and “determined” to “protect” their “European allies” even against a completely imaginary “Russian threat”. Even the NATO “spearhead forces” is really a joke. A costly PR trick, nothing more.
The real risk is that the US/NATO will wage war on Russia, but via the Ukraine. A lot of observers in Russia and the Ukraine are now saying that “the US is ready to fight the Russians down to the last Ukrainian solider” and that is sadly quite true.
The widely expected post-elections Ukrainian attack did not happen. Probably due to a combination of factors including elections in the Ukraine, the Russian re-opening of the Voentorg and the fact that Ukrainian commanders have made the judgment that they need more time for preparation. Still, if by some miracle the Nazi regime in Kiev survives until the Spring, a resumption of combat operations is most likely. At which point the US would use its total control of the Nazi junta to start a real war between Russia and the Ukraine which, of course, the Ukraine could not win, but which would be a disaster for both Russia and the Ukraine and which would justify an even more rabid russophobia in the EU, especially following the inevitable Russian victory.
The best defense which Russia has against such a scenario would be to strengthen Novorussia enough to resist the Ukrainian attack while using all her covert power to try to trigger an popular revolt against the regime. We are, after all, talking about sending Ukrainian soldiers into a war they cannot win to be massacred en masse by a infinitely superior Russian military. We always come to the same conclusion: at the end of the day, the Ukrainian people have to decide for themselves if they want to live in a Nazi failed state or if they want to die for the AngloZionist Empire.
As for Russia, the threat for her is not military. Not from the US, not from NATO, not from the EU or the Ukrainian military. In fact, Putin specifically stated that the Russian Armed Forces were sufficient to protect Russia from any conceivable attack. And he is right. For Russia, the threat is first and foremost the internal “5th colum” the “Atlantic Integrationists” inside the regime, especially in and near the Medvedev government who are in a prefect position to sabotage the “Eurasian Sovereignist” political course of Putin and his supporters and who have a vested interest in preventing the much needed reform of the Russian economy in order to create popular discontent against Putin.
Truly, it is the Ukraine and the EU who are most at risk from the current trend. They are the sacrificial lambs of an AngloZionist Empire gone insane in its arrogance and hypocrisy. If the AngloZionists succeed in triggering a Russian-Ukrainian war the Ukrainians will, of course, lose it while western Europe will become completely subjugated to the USA for many years to come under the pretext of protecting Europe form a completely fictional “Russian threat”. Considering how totally subservient to Washington EU politicians are and the total control the US is having over the Nazi junta, the only hope is for a late and miraculous wakeup of the European or Ukrainian people. I am not holding my breath, even if hope dies last.
The Saker
re Saker @ 13 December, 2014 19:31
You’re likely right Saker. Forgot about the time needed for a NATO buildup, during which reservists could be called to the colors and unit trained.
NATO may still have opportunities for attack without warning from the Baltics, on Kaliningrad, and by Japan (NATO east) on the Kuriles and Sakhalin. Sakhalin seems particularly vulnerable, in that the Strait of La Perouse is only 13 miles wide there, Sakhalin is lightly defended, and there’s no specific Japanese irredenta (as in the Kuriles) to keep the Russians on their toes.
A sudden NATO attack from the Baltics seems possible, because as I understand it, the U.S. is deploying some 150 tanks and related equipment there, while rotating units to man them in and out every few months. (It’s a way for them to get around an agreement not to permanently deploy units to the Baltics. They’d simply ignore the agreement, of course, if they wished.) The Brits and some other NATO quislings have chimed in they’d like to do the same. NATO has also set up a base for nuclear capable aircraft there, rotating different squadrons from time to time.
I realize these are unlikely scenarios, but the crazies now directing NATO policy, especially Hillary if elected, might do anything, without counting the cost.
@Tacu
Russia has not responded with overwhelming force against the Ukies for several reasons, but the most important one is the following: By keeping the war on a low level, dragging on and on, the costs to the Ukie Junta rise exponentially. The longer their ATO in the Donbass drags on, the more money they will be wasting (money which they do not have) and the more money they will be begging for from their friends in the West. Putin’s central strategy here, is to let the Ukrainians see for themselves what “partnership” and “friendship” with the West really looks like. It is already becoming to some in Bandrastan that even Yanukovich style rule was a veritable paradise compared with their new EuroUkraine. Only a few days after the coup that brought Yats into power, Putin said that Ukraine would require more than a few cookies in order to survive. Putin simply wants to let the Ukrainians realize that the EU or the US are not at all interested in partnering with them and will not sacrifice one single of their Euros/dollars/pounds in order to feed or keep warm a single Ukrainian child. Putin also wants to let the EU understand that they themselves are not willing to shoulder the burden of financially supporting Ukraine and that the Americans and the IMF are indeed planning to let the EU foot the bill. By attacking and annihilating Ukrainian troops, the only thing that Russia will achieve is to justify the anti-Russian hysteria inside Ukraine. While it is a much better strategy to let the Ukies realize that they West is using them as cannon fodder against Russia and nothing else.
For those into numerology:
NATO = NAZI
N + A + Z + I
14 1 26 9 = 50 (5)
N + A + T + O
14 1 20 15 = 50 (5)
Elsi,
you and I and most commentators worry about “a tercera guerra mundial”, WW3. Nobody wants this war, but as in 1914, many mistakes are made and war can start anyway. Look at what the US Congress just did. If Obama does not veto the law, Russia will answer in kind. We have seen conflicts for months and I fear they will get worse. It only takes one senior military officer to start a war. Clark, the NATO commander, almost started WW3 in Kosovo in 1999 when he ordered an attack on russian UN troops. A British officer protested and Clark was sacked.
What is most worrying is that american decisionmakers don’t know what real war is like, don’t understand Russia and think US forces are superior. Well, they are not. Russia has a welltrained one million man army, not only modern hitech weapons. The US has dangerous weapons, but it does not have enough infantry and if you ask european experts, the US does not have competitive fighter planes either. One military expert says Russia only has to worry about one fighter and NATO does not have it.
This is what can happen. The following, in a very peculiar Latin language, is quoted from a old and funny story about two nineyear old boys playing in school. They played, they thought everything was under control, but it was not:
“Tosto, on faceva le guerra pro partagar le mundo. Io me proclamava Imperator de Portugallia e mi amigo se nominava Rex Irlanda. Multe e longe esseva le guerras. Mi amico esseva multe forte ma io habeva le galeases superior de Portugal pro bombardar Irlanda. Le terreno del schola esseva le atlantico e un die, le tertie persona, le schola, esseva bombardate par accidente. Ille concerneva un parve detailo ridicule de due vitros. Due minutes plus tarde nos esseva situate in le camera del prefecto.”
Both were taken by the ear. It is a long funny story about children and I will not quote all of it here. When I look at todays western elite, I see not playing children, I see dangerous idiots.
According to the Afghans themselves, these units performed much worse than the regular Soviet infantry solider of the 1980s which had to fight in terrible conditions. There are plenty of interviews of Afghans which confirm that. Also, while these forces could not even hold Kabul properly, the Soviets held every single city and all of the roads (at least in daytime – at night the Afghans ruled). One day I want to write a full comparison of the US/NATO performance in Afghanistan vs the Soviet. Believe me, it is no comparison. The Soviet were far better and far tougher. And that is the Soviet military of a totally decaying and demoralized Soviet Union in full-scale crisis, with a crippled economy and terrible training conditions.
Upon further reading I did not realise that Nato had as many troops as the USSR did at the height of its war. The mujihadeen also had advanced weapons from Nato; combined with more Soviet bravery, the Red army took far heavier casualties.
…And their machines are superior to the ones you mention. Also, remember that US/NATO Air Forces are used to fly in quasi impunity, with air supremacy on their side. Just imagine how different it would feel for them against the most advanced air defense forces on the planet AND while confronting the Russian Air Force.
How many planes does Russia have that are capable of defeating F-22s, F-18Es, Eurofighters, and Rafales? It is true that many Nato air forces, like Canada, Netherlands, Belgium, 2/3 of France, etc, are using the first generation F-16s/F-18s/Mirage 2000s; but I am not sure if the MiG-31 or Su-35 are as good as F-22, Eurofighter, or F-18E. How many S-400s does Russia have deployed?
Truly, that perception about such powerful US/NATO forces is a result of very good propaganda, but not military reality.
Hands-on experience is extremely valuable, regardless of whatever job you are doing. That is why it is dangerous to underestimate the abilities of the US and UK armies, because they have lots of experience from causing trouble all over the world.
Mundanomaniac
Sorry Mundano…its really hard to understand. Can’t follow it…
Penelope 20:36
Yes, I agree with you. What is the answer to that, in your opinion ?
There are black forces at work.
don’t we need to have white forces ?
There was,I’ve been told,a well known fiction book written in Ukraine a few years ago about a revolution in the Southeast Ukraine (Novorossia) set in 2015.Has anyone ever heard about it.There are maps based from the book that are close to the real maps of rebel areas today.Though the revolt (from the maps) spread quicker to Kharkov and other Oblasts.
And to Anonymous at 19:20
You are in my opinion 100% right on what should have been done,from the start.Forming a counter-revolutionary government of Ukraine and declaring it the legitimate government would have caused confusion in the West as to the legal government.Its a tactic used for hundreds of years to undermine regimes credibility in peoples minds.Its almost criminal that hasn’t been done already.The half-hearted way this anti-junta fight as gone from the start is a disgrace.Either you bring down the fascist regime or you don’t .But stop the cat and mouse game and get to the “rat killin”.
Uncle Bob
I like your assessment. I think the war preparations are also furthering the integration of the Ukraine into the AngloZionist economy. The US is not giving the weapons to theUkraine. It is selling them to the Ukraine. As a result, the Ukrainians are going to be in debt to the Western bankers forever to pay back all the military aid that is being sent there. Also all the other ex-Soviet countries bordering Russia who are buying (with borrowed money, presumably) other US weaponry.
What seems bit weird to me are the military saber-rattling coming from Finland. Why on earth do they figure Russia is going to attack? On the other hand, it may be Obama propaganda, trying to make it seem like Russia is preparing for a massive all-fronts war against Europe.
@StavrosH
I’ll concede that defensively, Russia is a formidable nut to crack for the Americans. And I appreciate you taking the time to clarify the distinction between defensive prowess and offensive capabilities of Russia. It goes a long way to explain their curiously timid reaction to naked NATO aggression even in territories once considered Russia’s sphere of influence. Although I’ll submit that they show less restraint when dealing with their more vulnerable neighbors, much the same way the Americans treat inferior opposition. I get Saker’s point now, thanks.
We have seen how Nazi Germany is the Most Responsible and the Most Guilty of the European Union Countries for what has happened in Ukraine, and for what is continuing to happen in Ukraine.
What is Definitely known is that Nazism has returned to Germany, and for the sake of Europe, Nazism must be once again Conquered in Europe.
I do not know how Germany obtains its Gas by either Nord Stream Only, or by a pipeline through its Puppet Nazi Ukraine.
A War costs a Country one way or another, and I know that it will cost Russia some Money to switch off Nord Stream, or even switch off All of the gas to those Countries that goes to European Union Countries, if they send any gas on to Nazi Germany.
We know that Anglo-Merkel’s Party did not receive a majority at the last German Election, and there one Option for a Non Nazi German Government, is a Coalition between the Social Democratic Party, the Left, and the Greens.
The other Option is for Germany to hold an immediate Election, and the Candidates will be Non Nazis and Nazis, and even if the Nazis win that Election, then the gas from Nord Stream should be switched back on to a Nazi Germany.
The important thing is that Europe knows and understands that Germany is a Nazi Country, if the Nazis win the next German Election.
This way, the Countries of the European Union can choose whether or not to Trade with a Nazi Germany, or whether they want to Boycott All German Goods and Services.
There are People who are wondering how People can know if the German Political Parties are either Non Nazis or Nazis.
The answer is on how they Campaign on the Facts concerning Ukraine, and if they are Non Nazis, then they will be Honest, and if they are Nazis, then they will Continue to Lie with regards to the Events in Ukraine, which began in November of 2013.
That Narrative is that President Viktor Yanukovych was Innocent of any wrongdoing, and that Nazi Anglo-America Schemed an Illegal and Immoral Coup, and the Ukrainian Nazis murdered the Maidan Protestors, and wrongly blamed it on President Viktor Yanukovych.
Furthermore, that Russia is Innocent, and that the Nazi Ukrainian Puppet Junta downed Malaysian Passenger Flight MH17, under Nazi America approval or orders.
Russia knows the Facts, as do other Countries, and they can assist Germany with their written submission to highlight for a New German Government of the Coalition of the Social Democratic Party, the Left, and the Greens, or a the German Election Campaign, and after the New Government or the Election, the gas will be switched back on for Germany.
There were high hopes based Entirely on False Promises from Nazi Britain and Nazi America at the end of the Cold War, and we All now know that it was because Nazi Anglo-America and the Nazi European Union wants WW 3.
The Independence of Crimea from Ukraine is a Unique Case, because it helps Prevent All Humans dying in WW 3, but more is needed such as America leaving Eastern Europe and the Balkans, as they have no legitimate business there, and they have good intentions there, and Continental Europeans can maintain Security in the Balkans for the time it is needed.
The People of the World know that they need to boycott All Goods and Services from Nazi British, and Nazi American, and a Nazi Germany, until Nazi Anglo-America leaves Eastern Europe and the Balkans in order to avoid All Humans from dying in WW 3.
@ Stavros H.
Your answer makes good sense, but there are two important points spoiling the picture:
1) As Falkenhayn was told when he was trying to bleed out the French army in the fight for Verdun, you get enemy losses at the cost of your own. In this war Donbass is getting a far worse punishment than Ukraine. If the Ukies will start doubting of the effectivity of Western help, what will people in Donbass razed to the ground think of the Russian one?
2) The mantra that Ukraine is bankrupt and has no money would work if financial stability and money were real physical quantities. We all know that – so far – you can buy all by fiat money. EU has been keeping Greece alive even with the limited help of its Euros (that they basically don’t want to print). USA print its dollars at will (and IMF can distribute them). Provided that the Empire wants to fund Ukraine (and they want, see Senate resolution etc), and as long as the system lasts, this is enough to keep the Ukies fighting. They will experience shortages and privations, they already do, but that’s all Putin’ fault, and the isseue is settled…
@Uncle Bob
is right. That’s what I thought – I believe Putin and his thieving entourage had botched it from the very beginning. The day the CIA coup overthrew Yanukovich, I thought – I was actually confident that they would do that – an alternative government in exile would be setup, with then Yanukovich as the nominal head, ministries of this and that, and Russia would recognize that government (something that at that point would be the only legitimate government to recognize). Instead Putin and the people behind him switched to halfhearted irresolute silly talk about “our partners” – totally, ridiculously out of place if one considers the Russophobe hysteria (that began well before the Kiev coup) and Propagandist crusade by the Fourth Reich’s media, and pretty ridiculous inaction.
I realized that I did not write one sentence in my other comment as I have wanted to, and it should say that Anglo-America has No good intentions in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.
The Independence of Crimea from Ukraine is a Unique Case, because it helps Prevent All Humans dying in WW 3, but more is needed such as Anglo-America leaving Eastern Europe and the Balkans, as they have no legitimate business there, and they have No good intentions there, and Continental Europeans can maintain Security in the Balkans for the time it is needed.
Nazi Anglo-America has never had any good intentions to other Countries, even since the beginning of the Nazi English Empire, which was Euphemistically known as the British Empire.
We know that that Nazi Anglo-America with Nazi Germany were the Most Responsible and Most Guilty Countries to Scheme the breakup of Yugoslavia, and then to wage an Illegal and Immoral War on Serbia in order to build Camp Bondsteel in Serbia’s Province of Kosovo.
The purpose of that was because of Anglo-America wants to be the Nazi Dictator of the Global Domination, and where Germany would be Anglo-America’s Puppet over Continental Europe to Hitler’s Praise and Glory, because Nazi England did not want to be seen the Puppet Master of an Evil Empire in Europe.
This is why the European Union, and the Euro Currency were created so that it looks like Nazi Anglo-America’s Puppet of Nazi Germany is the Puppet Master of Continental Europe.
Blogger roobit said…
@Uncle Bob @ 14 December, 2014 09:00
” @Uncle Bob
is right. That’s what I thought – I believe Putin and his thieving entourage had botched it from the very beginning”
Thank you for your encouragement.
Perhaps the following will help inform/co-ordinate your efforts.
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2014/dec/18/how-he-and-his-cronies-stole-russia/?insrc=hpma
As most surgeons will likely agree – it is easier to operate on a comatose patient.
Please continue your efforts to facilitate such outcomes, at least in “the real world”, unless of course Mr. Rove was correct in his assessments and definitions.
In doing so please take due care not to fall into black holes.
roobit said…@ December, 2014 09:00
“@Uncle Bob
is right. That’s what I thought – I believe”
Congratulations you have just overturned most historic endeavours in such fields as logic, mathematics, philosophy and science.
It seems that truth is a function of two people agreeing, one of whom believes.
To Stavros H @13 December, 2014 20:45
who wrote…
1.
“we must also keep in mind that the Germans would much rather surrender to the Anglos than to the Soviets”
To point 1 …[please read ‘Other Losses’, by James Bacque
An Investigation into the Mass Deaths of German Prisoners at the hands of the French and Americans After WWII, (Little, Brown and Company Ltd., c/o Fenn Publishing Company, Ontario, Canada. 1989, 1999, 2004) ..]
2.
“I am not saying here that WWII has much relevance with our discussion here, but I would like someone to point out to me an occasion where a western ground force performed well under difficult conditions”…..
Quite correct. I survive in the UK at present and I know whereof I speak.
The demographic is entirely different from 1939, then as now,the regular army was elitist and arrogant. The population does as it is told!,the conscripts are the ones who fight to survive,it is harder to say NO!, than to accept enlistment (the white feather option is always there).
True.. the media outlets and some commenters on blogs, would have you believe in ‘Rule Brittania’, however the results are self evident!.As usual the troops are under funded,under equipped,after they are medi-evacuated they are thrown on the scrap heap,nothing new there!.
“The armless,the legless, the blind and insane”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WG48Ftsr3OI by Eric Bogle.
Britain has never won a war,not in 1945 against Germany,in 1952 against Korea or anywhere it did not have an advantage of money or overwhelming force,the USA and Nato all use the same tactic,as do the police forces of those countries.
The English have never been a race of warriors since the shield wall broke in 1066,when they went from being yeoman farmers answering to their Theign(of the Angles and Saxons),to being the serfs of Duke William of Normandy….
fast forward to modern times.
Since the unions were destroyed,along with the industries they represented,there has been no organized resistance to government,but it is the demographics that underscore the situation.
The percentage of people here in mortgage debt is monumental,but is is not yours until the last payment!,and the social housing system is also vast,essentially free accomodation,as long as you do as you are told!
Do you see? it is easy to control,also they control the food supply..do you see?,recently where I am,there was a water main burst and people were running around in a panic!,just because the water was off for 8 hours,that’s the quality of the people.
This country is not a free democracy,it never has been!. It does not have a real constitution yet is referred to as…..
‘A Constitutional Monarchy’,the constitution only refers to the succession of monarchs,nothing to do with rights of the people,only the rights of the aristocracy.
It was the biggest open prison in the world until post 911 being overtaken by the USA.
cheers.
Details on what’s going on in Donetsk/Luhansk. How they are coping, whather to keep oligarchs, etc.
http://journal-neo.org/2014/12/14/no-pensions-water-electricity-ukrainian-way-to-the-eu/
MOSCOW, December 15. /TASS/. Ukraine is running the risk to lose 11-13 billion U.S. dollars if its citizens are banned to work in Russia.
“For many Ukrainian, work in Russia is the only source of subsistence,” but “only thanks to Ukraine’s actions, Russia will have to cut off this source,” Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned in his article published in the Monday issue of the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily
http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/766882
uncle bob, I was flabbergasted that there was no counter coup. I began expecting it the first week. Do you remember how only 1.3% of the reserves answered the first call-up? And the original naval cmdr resigned. The the new one swore allegiance to Crimea on about his 3d day. The flaship that was patrolling against pirates refused a command given it by Yats.
I was SURE there wd be a counter coup. Just goes to show how hard it is for people to organize. The Maidan was organized from without & over a long period & w money behind it.
It’s difficult to understand what impedes Putin & friends from making dramatic internal changes.
This video finally allowed me to understand exactly what the 5th column does.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VT085isnyB0
Ann, I suppose the answer is a third political party here in the US in the belly of the beast. People have to organize to throw the bums out.
I think people are capable of great feats in support of decency, freedom and their children. But they mostly have to be given a structure within which to direct their efforts.
It’s difficult to do anything in isolation. We need to join w others. That’s why they had the police crack down so heavily on “Occupy Wall St”; they were organizing.
Saker-
your clear mention that :
[“For Russia, the threat is first and foremost the internal “5th colum” the “Atlantic Integrationists” inside the regime, especially in and near the Medvedev government who are in a prefect position to sabotage the “Eurasian Sovereignist” political course of Putin and his supporters and who have a vested interest in preventing the much needed reform of the Russian economy in order to create popular discontent against Putin.”]
is very critical to the favorable outcome of Putin’s Russia’
It is particularly and crucially important to what has been, and is currently happening in the field in eastern Ukraine. It is most clearly reflected in Kazzura’s observation/explanation in his recent translated videos, particularly:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=4e1_1418586439
that relates to these two videos:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=569_1418406755
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=90b_1418504389
“I guess it’s necessary to explain the situation a bit, Arsen aka Motorola, as a symbol of the NAF, of fighting, was used by the Surkov’s minions (Surkov is de facto still in charge of work about Novrossia in RF government, his point is to make Novorossia join Ukraine back, weaken or eliminate militia as such, keeping only loyal Akhmetov’s men, for example he is responsible for situation when Strelkov had to leave Novorossia in exchange for humanitarian supplies for RF), he, being injured, was summoned by high comamnd to meet the UAF troops at the airport commander, now there’s certain PR campaign against Motorola launched by Khodakovsky, who is Akhmetov’s-Surkov’s man, like “Motorola is traitor, shook hands with UA commander blahblahblah, look at Khodakovsky he’s fighting”, to incite a stronger split to the militia, discredit commanders who aren’t loyal to Akhemtov-Surkov’s minions.
They already attempted the same with Mozgovoi, Strelkov, Slavyansk brigade, because they aren’t controlled by Surkov. While both operations Khodakovsky was in charge off turned into complete fails and highest losses NAF ever had in one fight.
So realizing it, Givi gave an interview to help his friend and militia integrity in general”
Oligarch Akhmetov is at a loss as to how to protect what remains of his interests in eastern Ukraine, and has been vacillating in his attempt to straddle the fence between Novorossia/Kiev. This is being played on by the fifth column in Moscow.
@Anonymous
“Thank you for your encouragement.
Perhaps the following will help inform/co-ordinate your efforts.”
I missed the point. You mean Putin himself is reading the blog and was encouraged by the comments? And how can one inform someone’s efforts?
Anne Applebaum is a raving mad Russophobe but she also portrays Putin as an “imperialist”, someone who wants to reconstruct the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire (of course you can do either or can’t have both), likewise you can either be a thief or gatherer of temporarily lost lands, and you cannot be both. Since Putin is painted as embodiment of all evil, he is everything, the ultimate bad guy.
He is of course not. He is the most accommodating “ruler” the Fourth Reich can have in Russia at the time. He’s got no think tanks. He surrounded himself with the most stupid people (least anyone drops a shadow on him) and most definitely the situation around CIA engineered coup and the ongoing war against Russian population of Novorossia was botched big time. Or was a treason? He might be an American spy? For example, transfer of all the heavy weaponry, tanks and artillery to the junta (which Russia was not recognizing at the time, but for some unknown and unexplainable reason was recognized since) is unprecedented historically, unprecedented from the standpoint of international law, and was a crime because the very same weapons, the artillery, were either patched or employed as is for destruction of civilian infrastructure and extermination of Russian population in Donbas. If you’d ask me if supplying heavy weapons to a Nazi junta at the brink of war and in advance stages of preparation to launch an extermination campaign against an ethnic group that is associated with the state the power over which you and your buddies had usurped (well, perhaps in the deepest sense that happened 97 or so odd years ago), then the answer is no, it is a crime, or worse a mistake. Obviously nobody would have chastised Putin or Surkov for not transferring weapons to junta. Saying that the regime is illegitimate for a few months and then recognizing it as a legitimate authority in the span of two months is hardly an example of consistent strategy, which of course is patently absent.
@Anonymous
“endeavours in such fields as logic, mathematics, philosophy and science.”
oh my gosh, what a bunch of meaningless words, Mr. Anonymous, are you using some bullshit generator?
@Penelope
My own father was absolutely astonished when he saw – as Putinist TV was showing it – trainloads and trainloads of tanks, artillery being shipped back to the junta. Worse were a efw warships, he is very far from politics, warships over which St. Andrew’s flag was actually raised, that they had de facto surrendered and were now Russian navy’s, those boats were for unknown reason handed back to the junta (that Russian Federation was most definitely not recognizing at the time). It was dishonorable, stupid, and very damaging (later on for the people of Novorossia).
I could now myself figure out – and nobody I knew could – why a government in exile was not set up say at Rostov for example and why there was no counter coup.
The explanation that Putin’s fans come up, mainly the foreign specimens of the species, is that Putin is brilliant. He is a genius. Well, I don’t think so. Or may be it is the same sort of brilliance that was behind Saddam Hussein’s wait in seized Kuwait and see and talk with “partners” sort of strategy.
@Penelope
It’s difficult to understand what impedes Putin & friends from making dramatic internal changes.
This video finally allowed me to understand exactly what the 5th column does.
————-
Well, because ultimately Putin represents the Thieving Class that wants to be accepted by the “collective West” and they have a cognitive dissonance issue that they can’t understand why they are not loved (I mean the Muscovite thieving class and the oligarchy that usurped Russia). Until recently they could not quite fathom the degree of civilizational hostility toward Russia, the role of dormant Nazism (within the EU) or the simple fact that what Saker optimistically refers to as the calls Anglo-Zionist empire wanted to it all, and not have them, the Soviet oligarchy and the Muscovite Thieving Class, manage the country’s natural wealth. The collective West now disagrees with the fact that Russia exists or, under most optimistic scenario, does not want Russia to be a semi-colony, it wants it to be outright colony. Otherwise there is no problem. Putin kept up a liberal pro-American model of economy in which domestic small and medium business was suppressed, and existing companies pillaged and savaged, and everything else, from manufacture of yoghurts to automobiles for the masses (the Thieving class itself drives Teutonic or Japanese vehicles, with a dash of American automotive monstrosities here and there), from soft drinks to razor blades, everything that is, would be farmed out to multinational corporations based in the Fourth Reich (the USA) or its key European vassal states, or, on a much more modest scale to multinationals from Japan and South Korea. In the foreign commerce the system was that of ivory for beads design, or fossil fuels for luxuries. Central Bank would operate on an ultra liberal model. The country is dollarized. TV networks would show American programming and if not they would have clones of US cultural “exports” (horrible stuff really). The language would be Americanized. Domestic dissent suppressed except for Muscovite Jewry (mainly of Bolshevik provenance) that can babble as much as it can (the Echo Moskvy and the likes outfits and its listeners). But the natural wealth would be controlled by the oligarchs and the privatized Soviet state run by KGB folks and top Soviet (and mainly Muscovite) apparatchiks or their offspring. Save for the natural resources part, Russia was transformed into something resembling a South American satrapy but they never estimated the depths and intensity of Russophobia, they did not understand the consequences of EU expansion and its incorporation of ethno-states like literally Nazi Estonia or little great power wanna-be artificial state of Poland and they underestimated how much the Anglo-Zionist empire wants it all, the whole pie, not just crumbs, no beads for ivory, just give us ivory and slaves and no beads deal. And here is where the collision occurred and why Putin is now suddenly “evil”
#Stavros H has left a new comment on the post “The EU and the Ukraine stand to lose the most from…”:
@Tacu Russia has not responded with overwhelming force against the Ukies for several reasons,
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People of Donbas are Russians and had not changed into something else only because of a change of title (as if they were serfs) or because the junta seized power. Would Germany be concerned if civilians were slaughtered on the other side of the Rhine (say in Mainz while there was peace in Wiesbaden on other bank)or not? People should not be used as live bait. Likewise Russian speaking Donbas suffered far more from this than say the Western Ukraine or strongholds of Nazi support. I find it preposterous that cities and towns must be flattened so some Nazis might begin realizing that they are not now better off than they used to be and perhaps, hopefully, change their minds. What kind of strategy is that? In case the window of opportunity might have been lost. Russian should have moved in in late March or April, junta should not have been given weapons, entire Donbas and the coastal region should be liberated or allowed to rebel. No Ukie artillery should have been permitted even if it required formal declaration of war. Total sanctions imposed on the USA, Canada, Poland, Sweden, three ethno-Nazi Baltic satrapies, and targeted sanctions on Germany (automakers, retail operations) and the UK (oil and gas, publishing) and then, and only then, somewhere, sometime in May or early June, it could be all settled in a cease-fire, and then the strategy of no gas, no power, no money remittances, no trade, and let the rest of Ukraine – from the right bank of Kiev and all westward, savor the fruit of Eurointegration. So by now the junta would already be unraveling. Now we might even end up with an actual war – though let’s hope not.
Maybe other people are in the same boat, but we wewre wondering if you could help at least us.
What is the difference between an analyst and a strategist?
and
What is the difference between a military analyst and a strategist (not restricted to a military one)?
Thanks.
Aunty Fog and Aunty Freeze.
roobit said…@ 15 December, 2014 08:50
“If you’d ask me”
It is unlikely that asking you would prove necessary.
Add a small amount of catalyst and you pontificate.
Nasha Kolya
Saker,
I don’t know if you have mentioned one additional reason that the US will not attack Russia. Bullies are cowards who back down if confronted. They always pick on weaklings who can’t defend themselves. The US only attacks small non-nuclear countries. I can’t think of an exception. Vietnam, Grenada, Nicaragua, Panama, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, etc.
Blogger roobit said…
@Penelope @
15 December, 2014 09:12
The wonder of grandfathers and fathers?
Increasing the sample size?
“”If you’d ask me”
It is unlikely that asking you would prove necessary.”
If you tried to express yourself in ridiculously verbose would-be English then you’ve failed, and no, for sure you won’t be doing any asking.
@Gary “don’t know if you have mentioned one additional reason that the US will not attack Russia. Bullies are cowards who back down if confronted. They always pick on weaklings who can’t defend themselves. The US only attacks small non-nuclear countries. I can’t think of an exception. Vietnam, Grenada, Nicaragua, Panama, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, etc.”
Vietnam is fairly large. The US has traditionally benefited from export of instability and war. It has won the history’s lottery twice in the course of the 20th century – during WWI and WWII, when Europe’s wealth was more or less transferred to America and powered the so-called American century. The US is ineffective and poorly run system, hence it also twice squandered its winnings and is now more or less bankrupt. There is no reason why the US won’t start a war through proxies because it, America that is, badly needs a major conflict because major conflicts overseas make US look like a safe haven and a bastion of stability.
January 7, 2015
Minprom.ua
Translated from Russian by J. Hawk
The visit to Berlin by official Ukrainian delegation headed by Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk did not meet expectations. For example, 500 million euro credit announced by several media outlets did not in fact materialize. The Minister of Economy of Ukraine Ayvaras Abromavichius clarified that the document signed in Berlin is not a credit agreement, but rather a memorandum of understanding which is not legally binding.
Moreover, the money can be allocated only for the reconstruction of the Donbass, but since combat operations are continuing and will continue for the foreseeable future, it is difficult to predict when these 500 million would ever be received by Ukraine.