Introduction
I have been putting off writing about this topic for a very long while. In fact, I wrote several articles trying to explain the self-evident truism that the US/NATO/EU does not have a military option in the Ukrainian war. First, in an article entitled Remembering the Important Lessons of the Cold War I tried to explain that the reason the Cold War did not turn into a hot, shooting, war is that both sides understood that they simply could never win and that any escalation in strikes and counter-strikes could very rapidly lead to a intercontinental nuclear war, something which neither side was willing to risk. In a piece entitled Making Sense of Obama’s Billion Dollar Hammer I tried to show that all the money the US will by pouring into “European security” is just a grandiose bribe for some European elites and that it had no real effect on the ground. A few days later I posted an article entitled Why the US-Russian Nuclear Balance is as Solid as Ever in which I tried to dispel the myth prevalent in the West about the putative state of disrepair of the Russian military in general, and of the Russian nuclear forces in particular. Lastly, in a piece entitled Short Reminder about US and Russian Nuclear Weapons I tried to show that in reality it was the US nuclear forces who were in a state of disrepair. And over and over again, in many comments, I tried to lay out the reasons for which I simply did not believe that the US/NATO/EU would dare to attack Russia. In summary, I will say this: the US is not nearly as powerful as the US propaganda claims. Without going into long debates about what “victory” and “defeat” mean, I will just say that in my personal opinion the last time the US military fought well was in Korea, and even there it had to accept a draw. After that, it was all downhill. This is not the fault of the US solider, by the way, but by the fact that big money and politics got so heavily involved in the US military that they corrupted everything. This is most evident in the USAF which still has superb pilots, but who are given a terrible choice: either fly on good but old aircraft or fly on new but terrible ones (I believe that given the choice, most would chose the former). As for the European NATO allies, they are such a joke that they hardly deserve mention. They even look bad on a parade.
As for a military option in the Ukraine, it appears unthinkable to me not only because, frankly, I don’t see a single military in the West capable of taking on the Russian military in full-scale battle, but also because geography powerfully argues against such a crazy idea (the very same geography which would make it impossible for Russia to try to invade western or even central Europe).
And yet, something in all this very logical reasoning felt wrong to me. A few days ago it finally hit me. What bothered me was
The American Duck
Among the many beautiful and witty expressions and neologisms Americans use, I always loved this one: If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck. This so-called “Duck test” is funny, but it is also a powerful logical method which ended up chewing at me day after day after day. Here I was, all sure and certain that the US/NATO/EU would never consider such a ludicrous notion as the one of an military attack on Russia or on Russian forces. But kept hearing the voice of the American Duck telling me: look at what they are doing, what does that look like to you? Suspend your conclusions and just tell me what are you observing? Tell me, if they had decided to escalate to the point of a military confrontation with Russia, would they be doing things differently? And a few days ago, I threw in the towel (at the duck, of course) and had to accept that while I did not know what they were thinking or what their intentions really were, it sure looked to me like the western plutocrats had decided to escalate the crisis has high as possible.
In truth, I have to admit that when I studied the theory of deterrence in the 1980 my teachers always insisted that this theory of deterrence was predicated on what they called a “rational player”. To put it simply – how do you deter a lunatic? Or a desperate man with nothing to lose? Or a person hell-bent on mutual destruction? The truth is, you cannot. Deterrence assumes a rational actor making a logical decision about unacceptable costs. As far as I know, nobody has ever developed a theory of deterrence applicable to a madman. When I initially wrote my pieces explaining why I believed that a US/NATO/EU attack was impossible a lot readers posted comments saying that while maybe the top US military command was still mainly composed of rational men, the US imperial elites had clearly gone crazy a long time ago and that they were so stuck in their arrogance, their imperial hubris, there delusion of invincibility and their knee-jerk and systematic use of violence that they could no more be considered as rational. At the time I replied that, yeah, sure, maybe, but what is the point of analyzing something crazy. How do you try to make sense of the suicidally insane?
And yet, this is what I propose to do today. I will try as best I can to try to place myself in the mind of these lunatics and see what they could try doing, and what the consequences of that would be. I will go through several possible plans that these crazies might have starting from the most limited one and then going up the insanity slope.
Plan one: a symbolic and limited intervention
This plan is already underway. We know that there are US military advisers in the Ukraine, including at least one general, we know that the Dutch and Australians will be sending in a lightly armed force to “protect” the investigators at the crash site of MH17 (although how a few men armed with assault rifles can protect anybody from Ukie artillery, tank or mortar fire is anybody’s guess). Then there are all the reports of foreign mercenaries, mostly US and Polish, fighting with the Ukie death squads. There is also some good evidence that Poland is sending military equipment, including aircraft and, possibly, crews. Well, all of that is dumb and serves very little useful purpose, but that is what the West is so good at: pretending. If this plans stays at this level I would say that it is not very important. But, alas, there is a nastier possibility here:
Plan two: a tripwire force
This is just an extension of plan one: bring in a few men, and then have them killed. This would trigger the needed “popular outrage” (carefully fanned and reported by the corporate media) to force the Europeans to accept more US sanctions in Europe or even some kind of “EU-mandated” “peacekeeping force”. Of course, if the Russians or the Novorussians do not take the bait and fail to kill the “observers”, US/NATO false flag teams could easily do that. Just imagine what a heavy-mortar strike on a building with these OSCE observers would look like. The junta in Kiev would be more than happy to “invite” such a “peacekeeping” force into Novorussia and since this would be an “invited” force, no UNSC Resolution would be needed. Finally, such a “peacekeeping” force would be regularly reinforced and augmented until it could basically cover the flanks of the Ukies in their attacks against Novorussia. This force would also assume the command and control of Ukie forces, something which the Ukies could greatly benefit from (their current command and control is a mess).
Plan One and Plan Two assume that Russian forces stay on the other side of the border and that the only opposition to such a deployment could come from the Novorussians. But what if the Russians decided to move into Novorussia either to protect the locals or stop his limited US/NATO/EU “peacekeeping force”? Then the US/NATO/EU would have to take a dramatic escalatory step send in a much bigger force, more capable of defending itself.
Plan three: UPROFOR on the Dniepr?
This is the Yugoslav scenario. The West would send in something on the order of 10 battalions which would each be given an area of responsibility for “peacekeeping”. Then police forces would be also sent to “maintain law and order” and EU commissars would be sent in to “help” the local population “express their will” and “organize” a local government. Soon there would be some kind of EU-run election and all the Novorussian forces would be declared “bandits” from which the local population need to be “protected”. Since Strelkov himself fought in Yugoslavia, as did many other Russians, I don’t believe that the Russians or Novorussians would fall for this one. I think that Russia would express its opposition to such a plan and that if she was ignored, she would move in her own forces along the line of contact.
This might be the US/NATO/EU endgoal: to create a Korea like “line of demarcation” which would isolate the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s republics from the rest of Novorussia and the rest of the Ukraine, this would mean getting plenty of Kosovo-like “Camp Bonsteels” all along the Russian border and it would make it looks like the “Wartime President of the One Indispensable Nation” “stopped the Russian Bear”. Finally, it would create a perfect Cold War like environment in which the western 1%ers could continue to exploit the 99% while constantly scaring them with the “Russian threat”.
Plan four: Operation Storm in Novorussia and Crimea?
I would not put it past the folks in the Pentagon and Mons to try to pull off an “Operation Storm” in Novorussia and even possibly Crimea. That is the scenario Glazev fears: the US/NATO/EU would put enough forces inside the Ukraine to allow it to survive long enough to mobilize a sufficient number of men and equipment for a lightening fast attack in Novorossia and even possibly Crimea. And, in theory, if we assume the Banderstan does not collapse under its own weight and the economic disaster, the Ukraine has the resources to mobilize far more men and equipment that the tiny People’s Republics of Donestk and Lugansk or even Crimea. But that, again, assumes that Russia will let that happen, which she won’t, so now we have to look at the really crazy plans:
Plan five: First “Desert Steppe Shield” then “Desert Steppe Storm”
That is a crazy notion: to do with Russia what the US did with Iraq. First, to place down a “protection force” in the Ukraine, isolate Russia, and then attack in a full-depth and full-scale determined attack. We are definitely talking about a continental war with a fantastic potential to turn into a world war. This plan would have be based on two crucial assumptions:
1) The US/NATO/EU conventional forces would be capable of defeating the Russian military.
2) If facing conventional defeat, Russia would not use nuclear weapons.
I think that both of these assumptions are deeply mistaken. The first one is based on a mix of propaganda, bean counting and ignorance. The propaganda is something which western military are very good. They are not. Most western armies are a pathetic joke, and those who can fight well (the Brits, the Turks) are too little to matter. That leaves the US military which have capabilities far in excess of what its NATO allies can muster. Just as in WWII all the serious fighting had to be done by German units, in case of a WWIII (or IV?) all the serious fighting would have to be done by Americans. The problem is that the Americans would have an extremely hard time bringing in enough forces to really make the difference. In any case, I have the biggest doubt about the current fighting capabilities of the US Army and Marine Corps. Faced with a Russian battalion defending its own soil I think that an equivalent USA/Marine force would get slaughtered.
The “bean counting” is when you compare all the NATO APCs or tanks to the number available to the Russian military. The corporate media loves this kind of charts in which soldiers, APCs, tanks, aircraft and other gear are compared. Professional analysts never use them simply because they are meaningless. What matters is how much of that gear is actually available for battle, the kind of tactics used, the training and morale of the soldiers, the skills of their commanding officers, and stuff which is *never* mentioned: supplies, logistics, petroluem, lubricants, ammunition, lines of supply, medical standards, even food and weather. Bean counters simply never see that. But one could argue that the number of trucks is more important to a military than the number of tanks. Yet trucks are never counted. But yes, on paper NATO looks huge. Even though most NATO gear could not even survive your average Ukrainian road, nevermind the winter.
But let us assume that the Hollywood image of the US military is true: invincible, best trained, best armed, with a fantastic morale, led by the very best of the best officers, it would easily defeat the primitive Russian military, armed with antiquated weapons and commanded by fat drunken generals. Okay, and then what? If is the official Russian nuclear deterrence doctrine that in this case Russia would use nuclear weapons. Since even in Hollywood movies nobody makes the claim that the US anti-missile systems could stop Iskanders, cruise missiles or even gravity bombs, we would have to accept that the invincible US force would be turned into radioactive particulates and, that, in turn, would leave the US President two terrible choices: a) take the loss and stop b) retaliate and the second option would have to include the location from where the strike came from: Russia proper. That, of course, would place the following choices for the Russian President: a) take the loss or b) strike at the continental United States. At this points nuclear mushrooms would start appearing all over the map.
Now please make no mistake: Russia can not only destroy Mons, the Pentagon and Cheyenne Mountain (just a matter of placing enough warheads on the right spot), but also every single major city in the United States. Sure, the USA can retaliate in kind, but what kind of consolation would that be for anybody left?
I cannot believe that the US deep state would truly, deliberately, want to start a planetary nuclear war. For one thing, US leaders are cowards and they will not want to take such a monumental decision. A far more likely version is that being stupid, arrogant and cowards they will stumble upon just that outcome. Here is how:
Plan six: American football’s “Hail Mary”
In American football there is a specific pass which is used only when seconds are left on the clock and your teams is badly losing anyway. Basically it works like this: every single person who is not defending the quarterback rushes to the endzone, as do all the defenders, and the quarterback then just throws the ball straight into that zone with the very slim hope that one of his own players will catch it and score a touchdown. This is called a “Hail Mary” for very good reason as only a miracle makes such a desperate plan work. Most of the time the ball is either fumbled or caught by the other team. But, very rarely, it works (see here).
I can very much imagine a desperate Obama trying to show the American people that he “has hair on his chest” and that he is not going to let “regional power” challenge the “indispensable nation”. So what he and, really, his administration risks doing is the following: to play a game of chicken hoping against all odds that the Russian will yield. This is my worst nightmare and the worst possible assumption to make because Russia cannot yield.
In March of this year I issued a warning which I entitled “Obama just made things much, much worse in the Ukraine – now Russia is ready for war“. What prompted me to issue that warning was the fact that the Council of the Russian Federation has just unanimously passed a resolution allowing Putin to use Russian armed forces in the Ukraine. Since, this resolution has been repealed at Putin’s request and for obvious political motives, but the mood, the determination is still there. In fact, I think that it has grown much stronger.
There has been much useless speculation about Putin, his motives and his strategy. This is way bigger than just Putin. If the US/NATO/EU really push too far, and that includes a genocide in Novorussia, an attack on Crimea or an attack on Russian forces, Russia will go to war, Putin or no Putin. And Putin knows that. His real base of support is not in the Russian elites (who mostly fear him), but in the Russian people (with whom his current rating are higher than ever before). And Putin himself openly spoke about the “threats to Russian sovereignty” though he did add that because of the Russian nuclear forces there was, in his opinion, no immediate threat to the Russian territory.
If the US decides to play a game of chicken with Russia, then it will do the same thing as a car driver playing a game of chicken against an incoming train: regardless of the train’s driver, the train is on tracks and its momentum is too big: it cannot stop or veer away.
The problem is that the USA has a long record of making absolutely irresponsible statements which end up putting them into a corner from which they cannot bulge without losing face. Just look at the MH17 disaster: the Obama administration immediately rushed to blame the Russians for it, but what will it do when the evidence to the contrary comes out? What if Obama also draws a red line somewhere (it does not really matter where) and then forces Russia to cross it?
Sadly, I can imagine the USA declaring that the US/NATO will defend the Ukie airspace. I think that they are dumb enough to try to seize a Russian ship entering or leaving the Black Sea. Remember – these are the folks who hijacked the aircraft of Bolivian President Evo Morales to try to find Snowden on board. These are the folks who regularly kidnap Russian citizens worldwide (the last time the son of a well-know Russian member of Parliament who was kidnapped in the Maldive Islands). And, of course, these are the folks who did 9/11. Their arrogance knows no limits because they are profoundly evil sociopaths. For them the organization of false flag operations is a normal, standard, procedure. They almost triggered a war between the DPRK and South Korea by sinking a South Korean military vessel. They used chemical weapons in Syria not once, but several times. And the last time we had a Democrat in the White House, he was crazy enough to send two US Aircraft Carrier Groups into the Strait of Taiwan to threaten China.
My biggest fears
This is my biggest fear: some kind of desperate “Hail Mary” maneuver in which the US will try to convince Russia that “look, we are crazy enough to start this thing, so you better back off” not realizing that Russia cannot back off. The other thing which really scares me is that during the Cuban Missile Crisis everybody was aware of the stakes and most people were truly terrified. Now, thanks to the propaganda of the corporate media, almost nobody is afraid and hardly anybody is paying attention. Russia and the USA are on a clear collision course and nobody cares! How come?
Because if 9/11 proved anything is that there are things which most people are simply unwilling to contemplate, no matter how close and real they are. It would only make sense that the Empire of Illusion would be populated by a people in total denial. After all, illusion and denial usually go hand in hand.
Most of you, dear readers and friends, seem to be sharing with me a sense of total distrust in the sanity of our leaders. When I asked you whether you believed that the US/NATO were crazy enough to use military forces against Russia, an overwhelming number of you answered that “yes” and a good part of you was even emphatically sure of that. Why? Because we all know how crazy and deluded are Imperial Overlords are. Crazy and deluded enough not to quality as “rational actor”? Crazy and deluded enough to play a game a chicken with a train? Crazy and deluded enough to risk the planet on “Hail Mary? Alas, I think that this is a very real possibility.
But what does Uncle Sam really want?
There is a gradual realization in Russia that for Uncle Sam this is not about the Ukraine. It is about Russia and, specifically, about regime change in Russia. A vast majority of Russian experts seem to believe that the US wants to overthrow Putin and that this entire war in the Ukraine is a means to achieve that. As a very cynical joke going around now says “Obama is willing to fight Putin down to the very last Ukrainian”. I think that this is correct. The US hopes that one of the following will happen:
1) A Russian military intervention in Novorussia which will allow the US to restart a Cold War v2 on steroid and which will also fully re-enslave Europe to the USA. Putin would then be blamed for falling in the US trap
2) The creation of a US-run “Banderastan” in the Ukraine. That would ‘contain’ and destabilize Russia. Again, Putin would be blamed for letting that happen.
3) A “nationalist Maidan” in Russia: this is what is behind the current Putin-bashing campaign in the blogosphere: to paint Putin as a weak and/or corrupt man, who traded Crimea for the Donbass (you know the tune – these folks even comment on this blog). These efforts are supported and, sometimes, even financed by Russian oligarchs who have a great deal of money involved in the EU and who really don’t need the current tensions. Here Putin would be blamed for not doing enough.
In all three cases, Putin would risk a (patriotically) color coded revolution which would, inevitably, bring either crazy rogue ruler or a clueless fossil to power (a la Zhirinovsky or Zuiganov) or, much better, a pro-American “liberal” (a la Medvedev). I think that all of these plans will fail.
Putin will not give Uncle Sam the intervention he wants. Instead, Russia continue to support the Resistance in Novorussia until Banderastan goes “belly up”, i.e. for another 30-60 days or so. As for the “nationalist Maidan”, the Russian people see straight through this “black PR campaign” and their support for Putin is higher than it ever was. It’s not Putin who does not want to intervene overtly in the Donbass, it is the Russian people. The attempts at stirring up anti-Putin by first stirring-up anti-Strelkov feelings have completely failed and, in fact, they have backfired. A lot of these “hurray-patriots” are now overly called “useful idiots” for the CIA or even provocateurs.
Finally, while they are at this point in time only rumors, there seems to be more and more specialists of the opinion that MH17 was a deliberate false flag by the US. If the news that the Ukies did it ever becomes public, then the entire destabilization plan will go down the tubes. At this point, I would not put anything, no matter how crazy, past the US deep-state.
And that is a very scary thought.
The Saker
Hi Saker – I would say that there is very little popular support in the US for any of these scenarios of involvement. Indeed, I think that the majority of Americans don’t really care and don’t see Ukraine as significant, certainly not worth any American lives, and would have lots of questions if somehow Americans were killed or captured there one way or another.
CNN broke the story of the SS21 launches by Kiev. It has kind of disappeared already into the memory hole, but the very fact of this unfavorable information, including the commentary by Ret. Gen. Spider “Liar” Marks to the effect that these are far from precision weapons with great risk of collateral damage, is potentially a potent sign.
As Col. Pat Lang, Ret., commented, “This looks to me like the US armed forces pushing back. I used to “leak” things to the press on order from CJCS just to “even up the score.” This is an old game.”
(http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/07/ukraine-fired-ss-21-ballistic-missiles-ttg.html)
On another note, there’s always the question of rational choices and behaviors in the context of an irrational or incorrect worldview. It’s critical to understand the worldview of the opponent, and then evaluate their rationality in that context which seems warped to us.
cheers!
–sixpacksongs
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Dr. Stephen Cohen, a professor of Russian Studies and History at New York University Princeton University.
Why Is Washington Risking War With Russia?
http://www.thenation.com/article/180825/why-washington-risking-war-russia
Radio Interview (regarding article)
http://ianmasters.com/sites/default/files/bbriefing_2014_07_29b_stephen%20cohen.mp3
…………………………….
Sergei Glazyev… US is militarizing Ukraine to invade Russia
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWT5HM_NMlI&list=PLHS4KH8qkEfbz57RrnjwbBnmjBLz_A7qU#t=18
Well, this is something out of left field (to use another Americanism):
Allegedly Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over the Ukraine, one which would negotiate to trade Crimea’s sovereignty for guarantees on energy security and trade. The Independent reveals that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, “hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.”
Amusingly, this comes on the day when the WSJ leads with “On Hold: Merkel Gives Putin a Blunt Message. Germany’s Backing of Russia Sanctions Marks Breach in Pivotal European Relationship” in which we read that ” Angela Merkel spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin for at least the 30th time since the Ukraine crisis erupted. She had a blunt message, according to people briefed on the phone conversation: Call me if you have progress to report in defusing the conflict. That was July 20. The two leaders haven’t spoken since.”
They may or may not have spoken since, but it is not because Putin has “no progress to report” – it’s because the two leaders have come to a secret agreement which will hardly make Ukraine, or most of Europe, not to mention the UN, happy as it requires that Crimea be permanently handed over to Russia in exchange for Russian gas, which has been cut off for a month now due to non-payment by Kiev.
Here is how the deal came to happen:
…….Sources close to the secret negotiations claim that the first part of the stabilisation plan requires Russia to withdraw its financial and military support for the various pro-separatist groups operating in eastern Ukraine. As part of any such agreement, the region would be allowed some devolved powers.
At the same time, the Ukrainian President would agree not to apply to join Nato. In return, President Putin would not seek to block or interfere with the Ukraine’s new trade relations with the European Union under a pact signed a few weeks ago.
Second, the Ukraine would be offered a new long-term agreement with Russia’s Gazprom, the giant gas supplier, for future gas supplies and pricing. At present, there is no gas deal in place; Ukraine’s gas supplies are running low and are likely to run out before this winter, which would spell economic and social ruin for the country.
As part of the deal, Russia would compensate Ukraine with a billion-dollar financial package for the loss of the rent it used to pay for stationing its fleets in the Crimea and at the port of Sevastopol on the Black Sea until Crimea voted for independence in March……
(more at link)
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Would the US ever allow this to happen, if it were indeed true and in the works? For all the reasons Saker outlines above, I doubt it seriously.
If the “Deep State” has its way – and it always does – this terrible tragedy is going to unfold, no matter how much some Good People may try to stop it.
You forget the loss of the hegemony of the Dollar. The USA have always gone to war to keep it. Every single time. That’s why they can’t and they won’t back off either. It’s a lose-lose game for the whole world.
If you want to know the result of the MH17 “investigation” study the Lockerbie crash.
Malaysia should not have given the flight recorders to the UK or any other NATO country to prevent manipulations by the CIA. They will try that again like after the Lockerbie crash. No doubt about it.
“Statement of Dr. Hans Koechler, International Observer at the Lockerbie Trial, on Recent Reports in the Scottish and British Media
…
1. The credibility of a key forensic expert in the trial, Mr. Allen Feraday (UK), has been shattered. It was revealed that “in three separate cases men against whom Mr. Feraday gave evidence have now had their convictions overturned” (BBC, 19 August 2005). Mr. Feraday had told the Lockerbie court that a circuit board fragment found after the disaster was part of the detonator used in the bomb on board Pan Am flight 103. In the first case where Mr. Feraday’s credibility had been questioned the Lord Chief Justice had stated that Mr. Feraday should not be allowed to present himself an expert in electronics.
2. A retired Scottish police officer has signed a statement confirming that the evidence that found Al-Megrahi guilty was fabricated. The police chief, whose identity has not yet been revealed, testified “that the CIA planted the tiny fragment of circuit board crucial in convicting a Libyan” for the bombing of the Pan Am jet (Scotland on Sunday, 28 August 2005). The fragment was supposedly part of the timing device that triggered the bomb. The circumstances of its discovery – in a wooded area many miles from Lockerbie months after the atrocity – have been mysterious from the very beginning.”
http://i-p-o.org/nr-lockerbie-14Oct05.htm
“Gauci was paid $2m (£1.2m) after Megrahi’s conviction, and his brother Paul $1m.”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/oct/02/abdelbaset-megrahi-documents-lockerbie-witness
Another example is the false flag terror attack against Hariri and subsequent accusations (as well as fabricated evidence and false witness statements) against Syria and its allies to force Syrian troops out of Lebanon as preparation for another bombing campaign by Israel.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/hariri-implicated-in-arming-nato-insurgency-in-syria/26545
And self-inflicted atrocities in Yugoslavia to justify sanctions and NATO bombing:
“The 1992 “Breadline Massacre”
http://web.archive.org/web/20040124044701/http://rpc.senate.gov/releases/1997/iran.htm
Thanks for the article. This is really scary stuff but needs to be considered by the public, or at least maybe by some of the various media, policymaking, government, and military professionals who will be tasked with taking us down one of these roads.
3 comments:
(1) if you want to put yourself in the shoes of US policy makers, think like a NeoConservative. (look at their think tanks).
(2) regarding the insanity. It may not be true insanity, merely believing one’s own propaganda.
(3) A final scary possibility:
Maybe the State Deptartment, or whoever is in charge, simply doesn’t have a plan at all.
Worse than insane, they are also stupid . . . the quality of leadership in America is equally dumbed down as the general populace. Obviously no military/intelligence personnel left with enough experience, honor, common sense, etc. to stop the war.
The most popular American in the world, including in America, is probably Edward Snowden, by far the most popular world leader is VVP, also including in America.
The times they are a changing.
All respect to the NAF fighters.
950 armed police officers will be send at the crash site. Are mercenaries coming to Donetsk to help junta’s forces ? Almost 1000 troops is enough to fight rebels – there is no reason for sending so huge force to secure MH 17 crash site.
Andrew,
I can’t find the reference now, but I read many times that some US planners wrote guidelines specifically indicating the US should strive to appear irrational, unpredictable, touched by madness, as a means to keep others afraid. Chomsky has mentioned this many times as well. Irrationality seems to be official policy (at least the appearance of it).
@gayle –
Maybe. It would mean a negotiation process. Obviously the “first offer” given to Russia was complete surrender. This is a counteroffer, perhaps.
The whole threatening-to-destroy the world thing is just a polite way of saying “You want me to pay 20 Shekels for THAT? You must be out of your mind!” . . .
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u75XQdTxZRc
Unfortunately cold war 2.0 already began and the neocon lunatics are desperate to find a pretext and go for a warm one. Only an example from plenty of facts:
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/07/cold-war-20-old-school-behind-it.html
http://failedevolution.blogspot.gr/2014/07/desperate-to-find-pretext.html
Poland is sending troops to Ukraine and self propeled artillery. This is official information. There is no information about aircrafts, but this could be possible too.
Russia have imposed more sanctions on us – she have banned fruits and vegtebales from Poland. This is huge strike for our farming industry – especially affter thevies, which are called “Polish goverment”, have helped with establishing strong competition from Ukie farmers, which are selling very cheap goods, because now they will come to EU market not russian.
Andrew,
Neo-Nazis Travelling to Ukraine to Fight Against “Separatists” and Establish a “Fascist Dictatorship”
“My goal is a white Ukraine” – Swedish neo-Nazi Mikael Skillt
http://www.globalresearch.ca/neo-nazis-travelling-to-ukraine-to-fight-against-separatists-and-establish-a-fascist-dictatorship/5394274
Saker,
I think we’re already playing the Hail Mary.
We’re a house of cards right now, desperately in need of the resources, gold and healthy dollar that we’ve already burned through. It’s no secret that we’re on borrowed time, have always believed a war economy would somehow set things straight and still do. So we’re just playing anything we can, throwing anything we can anywhere we can. And while I’d like to think at least the top brass know the sheer stupidity of this, even Dempsey sure gave it all lip service the other day:
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=122751
More to the point, since Korea we’ve only done (increasingly) asymmetrical warfare, to the point where now we depend on destabilization a la ISIS so it’s *not even* like Iraq where we could throw in all those troops: for whatever reasons, we’ve been firing the good ones and buying mercenaries and drones instead. And yes, our elites are as delusional as they are desperate, as driven as they are devoid of any concern for anyone anywhere except themselves and their immediate needs. I think what happens in Novorossiya over the next week will determine what we try in Crimea, but I also firmly believe there’s no point hand-wringing about this going nuclear — why bother? There are plenty of people suffering right now and plenty of people we can help engage in the effort to stop this. I’d far rather spend my time and energy at least trying to do something about this than worrying about something over which I have no control whatsoever.
Gayle,
I’m still going to give it my best shot, just as a point of practicality if nothing else. But the morality matters too: it’s important to fight Evil, dammit.
Don’t worry, General Winter is comiing and everything will change.
(I hope you threw that towel at Moscovy ducks. I don’t see how they can reproduce they are so ugly.)
Saker, I am one of the persons who answered “no” to your question of the US going so far as to attack or invade Russia. I did so, if you remember, with the caveat that even so, I dearly hoped somebody close to the halls of power was standing by with a straightjacket. So I take your duck example very seriously and think it may well be true. There is no reasoning with a maniac, or with somebody whose world view is so narrow that they only see one viable path to take, no matter how many times taking that path leads to death and destruction – in fact they have convinced themselves that the path of death and destruction brings the dividends of riches and power their office entitles them to.
You will remember Dick Cheney saying ‘We will have to operate on the dark side.” That was insanity then, and it still is.
My reading of Putin’s ‘game’ is that he has made himself the spokesperson for the alternative view of successful governance, that of adherence to the rule of law nationally and internationally. If he had not done so, where would we be now? I submit we would be in the maelstrom and there would be no powerful voice being raised to oppose the ‘operate on the dark side’ insanity.
So, how powerful is this alternative today? I think it is very powerful. I think Putin knows he cannot persuade the leadership here, or even in the EU. I think what he is counting on is the many secondary but important workers in state government wherever they may be, in reminding them of the standard by which most of them chose to do their jobs. At some point those very people, like the Ukrainian mothers and fathers, will begin (maybe they have begun already) orchestrating the demise, the downfall of those rushing forward to catastrophe – they must.
Just as Strelkov made a rational appeal to the anguished families of all Ukranians, showing them a pathway (a dangerous one to be sure, but a way forward for them) away from the Ukrainian catastrophe, so Putin also keeps returning us to the rule of law we have all believed in as a way to peacefully exist in common with other nations. If he doesn’t do this, there will be no one to do it of his stature. (By ‘he’ I simply mean the leader of the Russian Federation, so it will depend on whichever next comes to his position to follow in his footsteps.)
Lest it be doubted how powerful this stance is, we only have to look back to Socrates facing death in the Greek courts. I do recommend people read the record of his trial, Plato’s ‘Apology’. And also the ‘Phaedo’ where he argues with his friends not to flee but to face his punishment as a citizen of Athens. The world has built civilization upon that rock, with terrible deviations to be sure, but always the pendulum swings back.
One man of conviction can stand against tyrants, whether he himself live or die. What a legacy that is.
If we are in fact at the point when the available oil and gas will decline (the very fact of extracting gas and oil by fracking says yes we are) then the future holds for humans the end of industrial civilization. “we all fall down”. If you know this to be true then the game becomes the thing, not the end result. The US and probably every major nation in the world knows this.
“The Hirsch report, the commonly referred to name for the report Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, was created by request for the US Department of Energy and published in February 2005.[1] Some information was updated in 2007.[2] It examined the time frame for the occurrence of peak oil, the necessary mitigating actions, and the likely impacts based on the timeliness of those actions.” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hirsch_report
You have to look at the mindset of those in power with the understanding that we stand at the brink of the end of industrial civilization. Since Russia has more remaining fuel than the US (no matter how much they try to pretend they have plenty) they have the ability to be last man standing. The crazies in Washington cannot stand to see that happen. They would rather have the end sooner than to no longer be on top when it all ends.
If you think all this new fracked oil and gas is going to save the world think again. Depletion rates are phenomenal.
http://www.oil-price.net/en/articles/shale-high-depletion-rates-in-bakken.php
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-10-10/u-dot-s-dot-shale-oil-boom-may-not-last-as-fracking-wells-lack-staying-power
We are also at peak climate so the end of civ will be complicated by the end of a climate that is favorable to human life. And somewhere along the line we stop maintaining plugged ocean well, ocean acidification decimates what is left of food stocks in the ocean, Peak Phosphate adds to the limiting of food production by climate change, and all the nuclear plants in the world go Chernobyl
Its over for humans, we on the outside watch the game for there is nothing else we can do. Those on the inside play the game because they don’t know what else to do.
The Hail Mary is the nuclear option as now being placed on the table by Ukraine’s Parliament. With this the accords and treaties that give Ukraine it’s sovereignty become null and void.
http://en.itar-tass.com/ukraine-on-political-crossroads
I do believe US will try to invade by proxy, first and then a more direct route.
I also believe Putin is not blind to this.
There was an interview that Putin did a few months ago on the difference between Americans and Russians.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pHE2JPoV3OY
Watch at the end, what he says about Stalin, and how in many ways, Stalin was better than the Americans who used nuclear weapons on an enemy (Japan) who had already been defeated.
A longer version of the video is found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8OeQpEkbbhA
Saker, I think you should have a financial component added to this blog. In order to understand what is happening in the Ukraine and Gaza, a lot of it is tied to the deals Russia and China are making (trade bypassing the dollar), BRICS, and the buying of gold.
For example, what is happening in Gaza, is not about the 3 Israeli youths, its about oil
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/jul/09/israel-war-gaza-palestine-natural-gas-energy-crisis
http://www.theecologist.org/News/news_analysis/2489992/armed_robbery_in_gaza_israel_us_uk_carve_up_the_spoils_of_palestines_stolen_gas.html
It is almost satyrical how the western MSM attacking Putin not just on the front pages of the magazines, but all day through the mass media.
There are so many books published about the Hitler’s advisors, not because I want to compare Putin with Hitler, it is because all of the leaders, politicians have their own professional advisers on many different fields.
These frantic psychopaths thinks that Putin has so much time to follow up all of these attrocities happening right now and of course managing the country at the same time. Rumors tells us that the most important brain for the solution of the war is behind the door and managed by the high level professional team. Of course it was laughable when Mr.Kolomoiski announced that he will pay 1 mill $ for the Putin’s head. Well, it is too late because if something is going to happen to Putin / pray to god to give him a long life /there is the team of people who will finish their job for Russia.
Now the question is for Uncle Sam if they want to destroy the all Russia because of the Putin? This is an absolutelly childish thinking because they are totaly despret. 80% population of this earth is standing behind the Putin and their support is heading towards the new financial system which will stop forever the enslavement of this world.
Saker, don’t worry it is a just an illusion that uncle Sam can beat 7 bilion people. Yes, they will still do some attrocities, but they have already exposed themselves enough. Their hallmark is everywhere even they try to ridicule this as a conspiracy.
Their spider net and their function is already out on many blogs even they are taken down and the next day they are on again, then how long this game can go on????????
On your last point about MH17:
A better analysis of the debris of Flight MH17, that is being used as an excuse for these sanctions:
Ref.:
http://bsnews.info/shocking-analysis-shooting-malaysian-mh17/
So what we have here:
1. 2 SU-25’s fired at cockpit of MH17.
2. Huge decompression led to downing of aircraft.
3. No missile, not even Air to Air as I was led to believe.
4. The target might well have been Putin’s plane.
5. The tragic error was the SU-25s pilots made the mistake, not identifying the correct plane.
6. There might have still been a missile fired to bury this deed under, just in case.
If 4. is correct, this is an act of war from Ukraine and the US against Russia.
If not, it was still a war crime, as it targeted civilians.
Now what is the UN going to do about this?
Interesting analysis, however I perceive a subtle change in tone in the Western rhetoric, despite the latest sanctions which are more show than substance.
Firstly and despite their initial outrage, both the Dutch and Australian leaders (surprisingly for Tony Abbott) have backed down somewhat on sending armed men. Initially, iirc, there were to be a detachment of Dutch Special Forces sent out to guard the site, they have since realised that they do not want to be the dupes supplying Franz Ferdinands for Ukie target practice and have sent unarmed or just lightly armed police instead.
Moreover, the intensity of the rhetoric is dropping. Some reports of Ukies killing civilians in Donbas and also some defence ‘experts’ saying that NATO is unprepared for a Russian ‘attack’ (and presumably an attack on Russia) lead me to believe that this could fizzle out.
Finally, the analysis from AH5017 was released today – the Air Algerie flight came down after MH17 and surely begs the question why it is taking so long for the Black Box analysis to occur.
Soon the West will have to come clean and admit what they really know.
Saker, you clearly have not been following the interviews which Gordon Duff has been giving. Yes, the Americans are stark raving loony but you don’t seem to appreciate that the US secret government has its own agenda which has nothing to do with surviving a nuclear holocaust. The US government is controlled by religious fanatics who want a global nuclear holocaust to destroy this planet (which they expect to survive by sheltering in the underground bases aka D.U.M.B.s). Here’s a link to a transcript of a Duff interview:
http://fora.conscioushugs.com/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=312&p=1855&hilit=duff#p1856
The transcript continues in the following 5 comments after that one.
This is not about Ukraine, neither is it about Russia, Putin or Obama, America or even China’s containment.
It is about two things:
1) The US dollar as the sole world-wide reserve currency.
2) The impeding civilization change, resulting from the unbearable increase in the world’s population, the decrease in the available natural ressources, chiefly the hydrocarbons (oil and gas), and the extinction of a large part of the biosphere’s diversity, concomitant with the emerging technologies such as nanotechnology, synthetic biology, artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion.
The Global Elites (mainly Anglo-Saxon and Jewish) want to survive all these changes, they want to keep playing the leading role in the next technological cycle.
They cannot afford the appearance of challengers to their domination.
That is why they have to prevent the rise of BRICS by any means necessary, war included.
And among the BRICS Russia is the perfect target for many reasons.
This is why they target Russia and they do it through Ukraine.
They would really enjoy seeing Russians and Ukrainians slaughter each-other and waste on war the wealth that could be used to build a competitive economy in the Eurasian Customs Union.
This is why they will keep pushing the Ukrainians with their provocations, including an attack on Crimea, and Russian mainland.
Putin should have invaded Ukraine three months ago, he would’ve destroyed the basis for the rebuilding of the Ukrainian army and helped put Yanukovich back to power.
Now it is too late…
http://www2.owen.vanderbilt.edu/mike.shor/courses/game-theory/docs/lecture07/irrational.html
WASHINGTON (AP) — The United States should maintain the threat of nuclear retaliation with an “irrational and vindictive” streak to intimidate would-be attackers such as Iraq, according to an internal military study made public Sunday.
The study, “Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence,” was written by the Defense Department’s Strategic Command, a multiservice organization responsible for the nation’s strategic nuclear arsenal. It was obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by an arms control group and published Sunday in a report on U.S. strategies for deterring attacks by antagonistic nations using chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.
“Because of the value that comes from the ambiguity of what the U.S. may do to an adversary if the acts we seek to deter are carried out, it hurts to portray ourselves as too fully rational and cool-headed,” the 1995 Strategic Command study says.
The British-American Security Information Council, a London-based think tank, cited the STRATCOM document in its report as an example of the Pentagon’s push to maintain a mission for its nuclear arsenal long after the Soviet threat disappeared.
The report portrays the command as fighting and winning an internal bureaucratic battle against liberal Clinton administration officials who lean in favor of dramatic nuclear weapons reductions.
Citing a range of formerly classified documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act, the report shows how the United States shifted its nuclear deterrent strategy from the defunct Soviet Union to so-called rogue states: Iraq, Libya, Cuba, North Korea and the like.
Idea dates back to early 1960s
In its study, the Strategic Command uses Cold War language in defending the relevance of nuclear weapons in deterring such potential adversaries.
“The fact that some elements (of the U.S. government) may appear to be potentially ‘out of control’ can be beneficial to creating and reinforcing fears and doubts within the minds of an adversary’s decision makers,” its report said. “That the U.S. may become irrational and vindictive if its vital interests are attacked should be a part of the national persona we project to all adversaries.”
The idea of projecting an aura of irrationality was not original to STRATCOM. It dates at least as far back as the early 1960s, when Harvard professor Thomas Schelling was writing his ground-breaking works on game theory and nuclear bargaining.
“It is not a universal advantage in situations of conflict to be inalienably and manifestly rational in decision and motivation,” Schelling wrote. These were ideas later adopted by Henry Kissinger and President Nixon in using coercive air strikes on North Vietnam as a way of forcing Hanoi to the bargaining table in the latter stages of the Vietnam War.
In 1997, two years after STRATCOM advanced its latter-day version of this theory, President Clinton approved a directive on U.S. nuclear policy that upheld the “negative security assurance” that the United States will refrain from first-use of nuclear weapons against signatories to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a list that includes Iraq, Iran, Libya and North Korea.
[…]
Saker, could you ask the russian team to get this translated properly/ the Googlr translator is a bit dodgy…
http://worldcrisis.ru/crisis/1584472
– plan 6 is too crazy
– plan 5: nowadays wars must be fought with public media support, every aggression is prepared by worldwide propaganda, right now the try hard to make Putin the new Hitler (but MH17 didn’t work like they wanted);
for a full scale US-aggression in Ukraine, there had to be really good reasons, the whole world knows US doesn’t belong there, its Russias former brother state,
so no 1 would be surprised if RF reacted then with nukes even, RF would have the support of the world;
this wouldn’t work
– plan 1-4: could be done covertly, but then RF would throw in similarly covert forces, which is much easier for them;
i think these plans wouldn’t succeed in much
Today in Ria Novosti :
“Ukraine’s parliament also amended the country’s tax code, introducing a temporary military tax of 1.5 percent on working citizens’ wages. The government expects to obtain $241 million from the tax.
Ukraine’s new authorities earlier said the country’s treasury was empty and announced that the government would be cutting back costs. In particular, Kiev developed a sequestration of the budget that applies cuts to social benefits.”
So the west Ukrainians wanted to join the west as they thought the streets in the west are paved in gold. They thought even the poorest of the poor in the west still lived better than they did. Be very careful what you wish for as you just might get it. Welcome to the west Ukies. The cost of your utilities has already skyrocketed by 30 – 40%, your pensions have been slashed and as you can read in the transcript I posted above your social benefits are going to be cut to the bone and on top of it all you now have the pleasure of paying a 1.5% “military tax” towards keeping the whole madness going, not to mention a new wave of military conscriptions to provide fresh meat for the grinder going on in the east which is chewing up Ukrainian army troops by the hundreds while your “government” lies through the teeth to you.
I have always believed that every nation gets the government it deserves. Lets face it, while there probably are a lot of west Ukrainians who just want to go about their daily lives in peace there are also a hell of a lot who buy into the hate and propaganda being propagated by the bunch of freaks now ruling in kiev. I remember reading a few years back of the experiences of African students who went over to study in Ukrainian universities and the truly horrific experiences a lot of them encountered even from ordinary Ukrainian citizens. These guys never dared venture out in the evenings unless there was like 15-20 of them for fear of being set upon by ultra nationalists and being openly insulted on the streets was a daily occurrence for them even being spat at. Their residences were often attacked with rocks thrown at the windows, etc, so I personally don’t feel sorry for them. I believe it was Lech Walesa who famously told the poles, “you wanted the west, now you have the west”. I think someone ought to say something similar to the west Ukrainians.
If it comes out that the Ukainians downed MH17, then they and only they will be blamed. There is no way Uncle Sam will ever admit, take responsibility or be blamed for this tragedy. If the US can successfully cover up 9/11, they can certainly cover this up.
It is probably a serious mistake to think that Banderastan will collapse or go “belly up” in a month or two. The US can probably prop it up for quite a while with shadow funds. The country that has the machine to make dollars has deep pockets and hidden pockets.
Of course I hope I am wrong.
@ The Sker,
I wish you had a time machine that could allow you to slow down the time and write more articles like this. Every morning, I want to make a cup of tea and read at least one article a day from this blog to feel like a gentlemen from long gone times when honor meant something.
The mental insanity, intoxication of greed and compulsive gambling is what drives the decision making of the western leaders. Once you know how they operate – you know what to expect. Logic, reason, sanity, humanity…none of this is present in the minds of those who steal fortunes through violence and deceit.
Typos:
1) To put it simply – who do you deter a lunatic? Who = how
2) …but that is what the West is so go at: pretending. Go = good
3) If this plans stays at this level… = this plan or these plans
4) The propaganda is that western military are very good. {???} – The propaganda is that the western military is a well-oiled machine ?
5) Most of the time the ball is either fumbled or caught be the other team. Be = by
6) (with whom is current rating are higher than every before). [???] – (with whom his current approval rating is higher than ever before) ?
7) Is is about Russia and,… Is = It
8) Putin would then be blamed for following in the US trap [???] following = stepping in/falling for this US trap ?
Which country is willing to sacrifice ordinary people to enhance its own goal?
The downing of MH17 served a multitude of goals. Cui bono?
Hi Saker,
As allways a good piece by your hand. First many thanks for your blog and the news we get from it.
But reading your last artical i think you missed out on one other option. It may be more crazier then all of them put together, but there is a slight possibillity that this all might have been plaaned.
Not by the US or the EU, but what if this was planned by the EU and Russia, and it is the US who took the bait.
Consider these points.
1. Russia has been thrashed by the media for the last year. Remember Sochi and how dangerous it was to be there, according to the US.
2. Merkel and the NSA. Since it came out that the US was spying on Merkel and other EU leaders, they where pretty pissed off, to say the leased.
3. The gas pipeline projects in which the south stream is becomming in danger of completing. So again the EU and Russia get screwed.
4. The Snowden affair and the information he has been putting out. From inside Russia.
Now considering these events and close relations between the EU and Russia. It isn’t far from reach to conclude that the EU and Russia have grown tired of the bullying, lies and deseat by the US. So what can we do about it.
Plan a trap, pull the US in to take the bait. Some sort of to good to be true opportunity and then spring the trap and release an all out economic warfare on the US dollar. BRICS, Deal with China and Iran and start dumping all US treasures.
What comes next is that the US economy starts to drop like a brick, stocks fall and the US can’t figure out whats going on.
Within a short time, the US wouldn’t be able to start a war, because they won’t have the money for it, and the poppulation at home would be screaming mad and starting riots.
In the end, the US dollar is no more the world reserve currency, no more bullying by the US on other nations and russia and EU would be able to do what they do best. Trade…
I know its a long shot, but there is some possibillity to it, and frankly, i wouldn’t be supprised if it where true.
Just a thought.
Againg keep up the good work, it is so important and you really make a difference.
All my best to you.
Gibson
The Netherlands
The nuclear game is all Russian. They have to indicate in every way, including Generals to Generals across borders that tactical nukes are part of the defense of Russia, near Russia and anything Russian.
The NATO game is long range bombing and cruise missiles. To accomplish this, they will have to disable all the radars and S-400 systems guarding Russia.
In order to do that very near impossible thing, they will have to wage an ElectoMagnetic Pulse attack. That is generated from nukes. Thus, NATO, in order to act, must go nuclear. Therefore, Russia goes nuclear.
This Ukraine thing is limited. Unless Russia goes soft. Then some chance exists for a swift nuclear disabling of Russian forces.
What remains as threat to Russia is Ukraine as a mess of Nazis and psycho political personalities as stooge dictators in democratic clothing.
The disease of Ukraine is in need of amputation. At some point, Putin has to order surgery.
The nightmare goes back and forth. Ukraine left as a destabilization on the border, or Ukraine failing and Russia taking whatever it needs for security.
Since there is no national insecurity interest for the West, I believe Russia will take Ukraine.
If you look at the battlefield right now, the militia with double the manpower and some fast vehicles could defeat the Ukies.
Deliverance from the Maidan menace for the rest of the Ukrainians is becoming an imperative Putin can soon exploit. Mothers and relatives don’t want this war. Nationalism is a weak banner when sons are dying and the economy is dead, and oligarchs and arms dealers and human body organ ghouls are roaming the land.
It is clear that the EU dream is falling apart. But the chaos of war could swallow the rest of Ukraine.
NATO and the US cannot reverse that. They have unleashed it, but can’t manage it.
Actually, only Putin has hands free to do anything he wants to or needs to.
The Hegemon is trapped like a tar baby. Instead of tar, the trap is filled with dead bodies, gore and poisonous hate. When you wear the mantle of death and promulgate genocide, your fate is sealed. Kiev, EU, IMF, NATO and US will fail. Russia will prevail because they must to survive. It is the highest order of a nation to survive.
Putin will mobilize the nation and back the Hegemon to the Atlantic. 7000 nukes says he will.
Mr. Saker; you asked: What does Uncle Same really want?
He is trying to save his dollar.
History rhymes but sometimes we find it repeats. When the economy is nearing collapse they take us to war. Nothing rationale about that.
It’s about the quadrillion of derivatives – IRS, CDS, described by Warren Buffect as financial WMDs – that will continue to implode. Derivative contracts are protected in bankruptcy which means means payment are 100 cents on the dollar.
[an overview primer on derivatives at this link-http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article46612.html]
In US they would have us believe that Q2 GDP up 4% attributable to sub- prime auto loans and inventory stuffing. I have some ocean front prime beach property for sale in Mali.
So
“Ukraine is where the US petrodollar as the world’s reserve currency went to die.” And the US with its EU vassals will struggle, go to war to save it; also to stop (a) de-dollarization and (b) the USD kill – the Eastern Alliance/Eurasian Trade Zone formed by Russia and China:
Some news of the day:
Having been blocked by the US Supremes; refusing to surrender to Wall street vultures Argentina has defaulted and there are counterparty risk for major US banks. Argentina accuses US of judicial malpractice will take them to The Hague
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/11004486/Argentina-accuses-US-of-judicial-malpractice-for-triggering-needless-default.html
http://blogs.reuters.com/counterparties/2014/07/30/argentinas-deafult-heres-whats-happening-today/
Russia and India are in talks to settle trade in their own currencies, by passing the US dollar
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/russia-and-india-begin-negotations-use-national-currencies-settlements-bypassing-dol
And throw in some hyprocisy:
Pentagon Slams Israel’s “Unacceptable” Shelling Of UN Shelters As “Totally Indefensible”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/pentagon-slams-israels-unacceptable-shelling-un-shelters-totally-indefensible
But never mind we will triple up our funding so you can just carry on with the slaughter.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-23/israel-s-iron-dome-defense-in-line-for-tripled-u-s-aid.html
Mr. Saker, if it looks like a duck? Baked in. But yesterday I read in The Telegraph co.uk that Mr.David Cameron has promised there will be no world war over Ukraine.
Btw, do not expect anytime soon the release of the MH17 black box tapes.
Anon Mongoose
@ 20:25
You made a good point. The general stupidity of the Western elite should definitely be considered.
They were actively engaged in de-braining of their entire populace through education, TV, Hollywood and most importantly food for a very long time. I remember when I was a kid attending a music school, I was always told that by playing with musicians that are better than me I can improve much faster and the other way round; by playing with those who were worst then me, I was likely to degrade my skills.
The point is that stupidity cannot be isolated and contained , it is infectious just like any contagious disease . The amount of mindless, truly ignorant and obese people is so huge, their alpha/beta waves are spreading over to their overloads. All of that to say is that America is really gone mad.
No the US is not going to launch any kind of military action. It’s a waste of time to think along these lines. Besides, the US doesn’t have enough force in Europe to do this from a standstill so there would be lots of troop and equipment movement over months that would give such a game away.
The US goal is to debilitate Russia economically. Time is not on the US side–vis-a-vis both Russia and China–so precipitating action NOW is key. The US has carefully and gradually driven the game to the point where they could compel Europe to support serious sanctions.
Eventually, the move out of the dollar will create huge problems for the US and this arguably means that Putin should have backed off on Ukraine from the beginning so as not to give the US the excuse it has been seeking. That’s water under the bridge now.
The question now is an economic one: Can Russia–Putin–withstand the economic effects of dollar- and credit-depriving sanctions until such time as dollar hegemony collapses? That’s it in a nutshell.
Also, everybody should be keeping an eye on what is going on in Bulgaria. I believe that the run on Bulgarian banks that precipitated the fall of the socialist government was a deliberate destabilization. The socialist government support the rapid completion of the Bulgarian section of South Stream. The US wants that delayed at all costs.
Also, keep you eyes on what happens under the “caretaker” Bulgarian government over the next few months. The goal will be to outlaw the Communist Party and restructure the legislature to ensure the pro-US faction total legislative control which it does not have now. The “fall” of the Ukrainian government is only a pretext for consolidating power over the next few months.
@ Nabil,
Q: If not, it was still a war crime, as it targeted civilians.
Now what is the UN going to do about this?
R: The same it is doing for the Palestinians in Gaza: zilch.
Again, there is no need to try to be overly clever thinking about this situation.
1) Putin could have sent peace-keepers into Novorussia, allowing the Ukraine to peacefully split along ethnic lines, as did Czechoslovakia a short while back, but chose not to. This fact is essential.
2) The EU and USA have taken total control of Kiev, and have placed Ukraine on a complete war footing, with maximum accelerating rates of forced conscription, a full re-activation of the Ukrainian war industries, and the immediate development of military alliances with neighbours- most importantly Poland.
3) The zionist controlled mass media, the George Soros fake independent media, and even the so-called true independent media is fully supporting the Holocaust in Gaza, and the neo-Nazi invasion of Novorussia. They are successfully demonising Putin and Russia as “Hitler”, “The new Nazi menace” and “The new Hamas”.
Stop with the ‘clever, clever’ and draw your conclusions from the 1,2,3.
Putin has chosen to allow Ukraine to raise one of the biggest armies in Europe’s history, and launch an attack against Crimea (Novorussia will have been ‘lost’ long before then). Putin wants Russia to take on this army- a force that Russia will eliminate with ease. BUT…
While Putin thinks that easily defending Crimea, and as a result taking Ukraine (all of it) will send a message to the world about Russia’s power and status, he forgets that those behind the horrors in Ukraine already factor in this outcome, and actually desire it.
By the time Russia confronts Ukraine, the sheeple of the world will be convinced that Ukraine is a ‘member’ of NATO, and thus have no issue with NATO forces (mostly from places like Poland) participating in the war. Legally (what a word), these forces helping Ukraine will not fall under NATO treaties, but local treaties created between Kiev and these NATO nations. This legal nicety will be lost on the sheeple.
So Putin will take on the ONE MILLION+ Ukraine army and the masses of external military support from Poland et al, when Ukraine attacks Crimea. And as he does so, the threads linking Ukraine to NATO nations will tighten and pull more and more NATO nations into play, until the US and UK declare war against Russia shortly afterwards (as has been planned all along).
Russia’s rightful, legal, moral, decent, Humane show of strength will be used as the fuse to trigger full blown NATO aggression against Russia. Look how the West acts in Gaza to understand the West has no concept of decency or morality- just absolute power in the service of absolute evil.
Remind yourself that the same people overseeing the Holocaust in Gaza and Novorussia are the self same people who planned and executed the false flag of 9/11. Your need to believe everyone has some good in them will be your downfall. No-one can properly confront evil until they accept the true nature of that evil.
Putin honestly and decently believes that showing strength helps fight evil, but the strength of a foolish man can so easily be turned against him. The monsters that rule the West have done everything in their power to persuade Putin NOT to enter Novorussia- such an act would have stopped things long before they had a chance to get started.
Now Putin gambles everything on the “Georgia Ploy”- sit back while NATO proxies build up their power, and wait for them to attack official Russian forces. But the original Georgia ploy was handed to Putin by his ‘ally’ Tony Blair, precisely to lead him down this path years later in Ukraine.
Oh yes they are going to do it.
Read and parse this interview from the UK’s PM. From the UK Telegraph. This is a ‘near’ war speech.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/11000431/Britain-will-not-start-World-War-Three-over-Ukraine-David-Cameron-says.html
“Britain is not going to start World War Three over Russia’s involvement in Ukraine, David Cameron has said. ”
Firstly and scarily, this is the first time a western leader has mentioned war.
Implication? Note the word ‘Start’….. Not ’cause’ or ‘have’ but ‘start’.
Implication: But if they could manoeuvre Russia into ‘starting’ it (or it crosses a ‘red line’ set by the west’) then that would be ok, they wouldn’t be ‘starting’ war then, Russia would be.
Then
“The Prime Minister compared Russia’s behaviour in Ukraine to Germany’s before both break out of the First and Second world wars. “.
Back to Russia = Nazi Germany, does this twice, see below.
“But Mr Cameron said the West had to draw a line…”.
Note the implied ultimatum.
“He answered by alluding to the lessons Britain learned about dealing with Germany’s aggression before the two World Wars. “
Another Russia=Nazi Germany, that’s twice in the same speech
This part is very revealing, blaming the Russian people now…an important rhetorical escalation. To date it has all been Putin;’s fault. Now he is expanding that to all of Russia:
“He added: “Yet that is what we are seeing. There is no doubt in my mind that it is Russian money, it is Russian people, it is Russian weapons that are being sent in to that country to help the separatists fight their battle against the Ukrainian government. “
Twice he mentions this part, which could be taken as am implied threat or is revealing what they have been thinking about.
“Mr Cameron said then that Britain was “not about to launch a European war, we are not about to send the fleet to the Black Sea”. “
And this very scary last bit:
” “We need to turn up that pressure until Russia decides to behave like any civilised country and allow Ukraine to choose its own future.
“It will be a tightening of the ratchet unless Mr Putin changes his approach and there is still time for him to do that.” “
“Time for him to do it”? What happens when he ‘runs out of time’?
I’d take that a real threat.
So I think the decision has been made in principal, just they are working out the details of how and when.
They’re talking about a 48 hours ceasefire in Gaza, starting Friday morning. Be sure that the doctored recordings of MH17 will be released during that time.
In legal terms, the “hail Mary” is in the works at the Ukraine Parliament is faced with a vote on going Nuclear (bomb that is). Hopefully this will be a drawn out vote, as time is needed for ‘old man Winter’ to set the stage. The question is then whom is going to supply those devices or where they ‘socked away’ for a ‘rainy day’. The Ukies still have the problem of ‘non-delivery’ of 4 (as you have stated) SS-21’s, so I’d presume that manned delivery is anticipated. If they do nuke their own nation, they will be perpetrating fraud against the treaties that form the basis of their sovereignty.
KIEV, July 31. /ITAR-TASS
http://en.itar-tass.com/world/743128
Interestingly enough is the fact that this is not the first time that this has been considered, but as it was not approved, it was not the policy of the Ukrainian government, but a representative faction…
As a previous poster mentioned, the American military might be pushing back, either that or the administration is backing off.
Obama is a narcissist. He has a talent for giving speeches and manipulating people – the main requirement of a politician.
MH17 is Obama’s “fly in the ointment”.
I have no means to determine this, but what it was becomming apparent to a substantial part of the US population (what the rest of the world knows) the 911 and other acts were orchestrated by members of a certain tribe with collaboration of treasonous forces in the US?
If it were You would you consider the Sampson Option or worse? Where are you going to run or what are you going to do after you have successfully turned the World against you?
Given this background there are no unthinkables.
I’ll take #6 please with no nuke option. They will put enough real damage by destroying the world economy if they have to. The neo-conns are sure they can take down China and Russia this way but what will happen those countries is it will hurt and at the same time making them closer friends. Then eu will be broken, something the neo-conns in Amerika want. The goal for them is to take down the safety nets for the people in every nation they can. It’s already started but it’s called trade deals. The deal is we all become serfs who ever is left.
Superb analysis, as usual.
Rusia must be made to believe they are dealing with a possibly irrational actor. I used to do this when I had to fight a guy twice my size as a kid. Go stark raving mad and watch the strength of your opponent vanish. It was always shocking to me how often and how well this ploy worked.
Of course sometimes the big guy calls your bluff and pounds you into the dirt (I fought a lot as a kid).
There are plenty of risks. Sometimes your opponent is insane. There could be more than a few Dr. Strangelove’s roaming around NATO hq and there is always the chance of an accident or miscalculation. All that said, the Anglo-Zionists have a weak hand so their every move is calculated in respect of this reality. Pity these poor AZ fools, they’re used to picking on countries like Greneda and Libya so they’re radically unprepared to deal with anyone who stands up for themselves.
The goal of Western actions are economic and political. They need a new cold war to mobilize their populations to accept brutal austerity plus the enormous costs of supporting a parasitical military-security-industrial complex. All the real jobs were sent to China and Mexico long ago.
They want Putin to be held at least partially responsible for the mess they’ve created. Remember their economic crimes alone are mind boggling. They need Putin to help them keep their ill-gotten gains.
People aren’t buying it. So far, he’s still the most popular political leader in the West today. If you had as many political conversations as I have, you’d know it with absolute certainty.
Ignore the Anglo-Zionist psyop media. They’re good but once you’re exposed to the continuous stream of disinformation vs. contradictions you develop a defense. Ask any American what he thinks about the commercials he sees on TV.
People in the West have slowly developed the sense that everything thet’re told is a lie. Those who are still doing well economically have every incentive to play along so they do but they can’t escape their unease because their neighbours, family and friends are all slowly becoming poor.
Half the people are brainwashed but half the people aren’t. A person who thinks for themselves has agency while someone who doesn’t will remain helpless when the shit hits the fan.
The trend is in our favour. Every lie can be overturned by telling a well timed truth. The truth is that the Anglo-Zionists are losing everywhere and so long as Putin doesn’t get flustered (he won’t), the trend will continue.
Agreed, Putin wins by not playing their game and strengthening political/military ties with his BRIC counterparts (this is all about the threat to the US as the world’s reserve currency). By their latest actions, clearly the Ukie government is desperate and a collapse is imminent. The E.U. will probably pile on and blame them for MH17 as a safe exit strategy. Longer term, the collapse of the U.S. hegemony is baked-in… that’s why they’re desperate for the transatlantic trade agreement… mutually assured destruction among the elites.
ST in Patagonia
What a brilliant article, Mr. Saker.
Afew comments or BTW’s:
(1) Obama is chicken. As in the Syria scenario, his bluff was called, and the Red line dissipated.
(2) The nutjobs in congress blinked when it came to Syria. No one wanted to sign up to a disaster in making, with a mid term election.
(3) When the winter sets in, and IMF loans start to pinch, then the hunter will become the hunted. Ukraine is in no shape to weather a broke winter.
Lessons from any Guerilla war. Bog down the enemy, ware him out, until he is humiliated and withdraws in shame.
AJM
automatic translation
Dear Saker
I was thinking of Nash’s game theory.
USA is a hawk, Russia is a dove … the hawk wins.
USA is a hawk, Russia is a hawk …
USA is a hawk, Russia is a hawk disguised as a dove … U.S. threatens his neck
USA is a dove disguised as a falcon, and Russia is a hawk disguised as a dove … Game over
The “allies” in the U.S. are the EU, not the Europeans, the people of the individual states (who are hating the EU with all their might, I can tell as I’m European).
At first, direct confrontation should theoretically take place in Europe. I do not think that political leaders would survive one day at a wrong decision. So I do not believe that in the facts the politicians would follow the USA / UK / zion
So the U.S. would find nuclear weapons pointed directly. I do not think the American people want to risk ending up in ashes: in comparison the dollar crisis would be a health walk, so the Americans, who have lost all the wars since Korea from now (never mind the WWII, that they have won only to Hollywood, see the mistakes made in the landing in Normandy or in the landing at Anzio), they’re bluffing. Between the dollar in freefall and the mushroom cloud is easy to choose.
Regarding the Hasbara, well, that says little, as the polls say that 80% of the Russian population are with Putin.
I believe that the U.S. has made a big error of judgment, which will cost a very salty price in terms of credibility and in terms of military supremacy. They will be seen as a paper tiger (that I think they are). A dove masquerading as a hawk who found hawk disguised as a dove. I hope they are smart enough to realize the error in time.
They are not great warriors, they are not the Spartans of Leonidas, nor the Romans of Caius Julius Caesar.
They are bullies who hit at betrayal, they do not have a word of honor (native american wars, for example), they fat asses sitting on big cars without gasoline. Pathetic cowards, so pathetically dangerous.
Putin can and will cross the Rubicone, I’m sure. USA I’m not so sure.
he West’s Reckless Rush Towards War With Russia.
For reasons that have no rational explanations at this time, the US and Europe have embarked on a concerted program to demonize Putin, ostracize Russia, and bring the world as close to a major conflict as it’s been since the Cold War, a time hardly memorable to many in the current crop of our elected officials.
Within hours of the MH-17 plane crash, the United States pinned the blame on Russia generally, and Putin particularly. The anti-Putin propaganda (and if there were a stronger term I’d use it) has been relentless and almost comically over-the-top (see image above, and those below).
The US and the UK in particular, are leading the charge. Indeed, the UK’s Daily Mail managed to crank out an article on the MH-17 affair within just a few hours on the very same day it occurred with this headline:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-31/wests-reckless-rush-towards-war-russia
OFFICIAL WARNING – U S to hit RUSSIA with FIRST STRIKE – PREPARE NOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NePChnsuMNs
“There is a war coming in Europe” – #NewWorldNextWeek
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HNQHxwe_hcg&list=UU7TvL4GlQyMBLlUsTrN_C4Q
Dear The Saker,
I couldn’t agree with you more. I just pray some people in the USG/military/intelligence services come to their senses and stop the madness engulfing the USG and NATO. For the sake of humanity.
Rgds,
Veritas
I keep coming back to the video statement that Putin made right after he had returned from his S.America trip, and MH17 had been brought down.
Something was weighing on him so heavily that he felt driven to make a statement at 1:00 in the morning, rather than waiting a few hours. It wasn’t the usual Putin – no pomp, no formality – just stark and immediate. He was waxen, exhausted, terribly grave.
What was the urgency that drove him to make that statement in the small hours of the morning? And whatever it was, is it a factor that’s still in play?
I know we here have in common our deep desire that Novorossia succeed as a sovereign political entity. But what keeps me returning to that video statement is the niggling thought that perhaps Putin had been brought face to face with a reality that makes the matter of Novorossia seem – unfortunately – very small, indeed.
This is interesting, I wonder what he plans on paying them with, magic beans?? And I thought he quit..?
http://en.ria.ru/politics/20140731/191539246/Yatsenyuk-Promises-Financial-Aid-to-Eastern-Ukraine-if.html
@ Anonymous 31 July, 2014 20:25
(4) Look at the IDF strategies
How much is Israel a rational actor?
They are able to inflict shock and awe on the almost defenseless Gaza population, but have given rise to Hamas in the past, and will probably give rise to an ISIS-like entity as blowback.
Meanwhile they could only defeat Hezbollah by completely obliterating Lebanon; the equivalent of nuking the whole country. They have not done that (yet).
Israel has been called ´Americas mad dog´, but we have seen many zionist ideas seep into US deep state thinking, like ´the indispensible nation´.
What I cannot see is how mad they really are: is it a cultivated propaganda image to cover (rational) cruelty and instill fear, or are they really crazy?
In Israel itself there seems to be the tendency to radicalize: after all, 50 years ago it was a more or less western nation, but it seems to be turning into a taliban like state, which might not even be viable in a few decades. They do not seem to become more sane or rational…
The US is not Israel, but Israel might be an enigma which could illustrate future scenarios.
But don’t you see? They played it the way you presumed – and they will win… Russia won’t be able to send an army to conquer Ukraine, the people there will live in the American Empire from now on.
I don’t think Novorussia will survive. It’ll go under… first, they’ll lose Luhansk, then Donezk. They can’t kill as many people as Ukraine will send them – the old Sovjet strategy :p.
In 1877 Crazy Horse surrendered to the US Army…the deal was that he and his band had to give up their guns and horses and they were promised government provisions as long as the grass grew green.
The Civil War had ended just a few years earlier and now the military industrial complex saw a near complete dry up of their $$$$ from that war and the Indian wars. This was not acceptable.
So the military machine of that time paid reporters to write stories about Crazy Horse being back on the war path – raping and killing innocent white civilians. Artists did renderings. These fake stories were planted in the major newspapers across the east coast of the US.
The American people were outraged and demanded that Congress appropriate more funds to put down the savage Indians.
All the while Crazy Horse and his small disarmed band were sitting inside their tepees on their South Dakota reservation.
The military industrial complex will do anything to keep their profits going.
From the day I was born in the 50’s, it was kind of a given that of course there would be a nuclear war. If not now, then at some point in time. The argument that convinced me was that if the thing exists, in this case the weapon, it will be used.
There’s alot.going wrong. Beyond the wars. And the economy. The environment is being destroyed. Either the global environment will collapse, or there will be war. Those are the extremes, and kind of those are the choices that need to be made by the worst kind of thinking that has risen to the top.
At this point, one has to try to think in multiple levels as a think tank would do, without the benefit of the other Machivellian sorts that habituate those events.
I disagree with anyone who calls another human being “evil.” On the basis of “spirit,” this is our dilemma. People aren’t evil, but the thoghts and behavior that becomes customary to them may be. All of the intelligent people who write here with the Saker, what price have you paid, what humiliation have you endured, what have you suffered and given up so that you can be here. Most of humanity just want to be comfortable even if that means living with their delusions, not roubling themselves with deep thinking or complexities.
And then you have those who are in power. In the first place, 5 billion was spent apparently to gain the Ukraine. Does anyone think that as wrong headed as this group who has come to power in the US is going to say, “oops, we were wrong,” and walk away from that much fortune spent?
This is the group that won’t waver an inch in terms of living a more simple life, with more humility. That’s for losers like the Palestinians.
These are folks who will not change, especially a wrong headed ideology. They would die first before even having to confront the slightest possibility that the premises upon which they base their existence, their sense of moral authority and moral superiority are dubious at best, It’s like that line, to paraphrase, words without thoughts nere to heaven go.
It seems like a good plan to maintain their situation in perpituity, to sacrifice nothing, to maintain the established order in the world, is to pursue the end they are pursuing now, including this eventual nuclear war, to reduce the number of people at the bottom, to save the planet and the remaining inhabitants, by destroying it first or the part of it that is of little significance. Then, they can travel in the sattelite guided cars into their gilded future on a quieter planet inhabited by the gifted people at the top that they are.
So of couse a nuclear confrontation is unavoidable, and the hour is getting closer. I, however have faith that the world is not as it is perceived, but that’s neither here nor there.
@juliania. Thank you! So true!
-Truth eventually always wins.
Dear Saker,
Your very best post yet!
You said it all. This is much bigger than Putin himself, and the assumptions that certain US-Nato moves in Ukraine could provoke regime change in Russia are fully erroneous and evince a complete misread and misunderstanding of the Russian political and social landscape.
As for the famous Dick Cheney or Rumsfeld line, that sometimes you have to show that you are just crazy enough to carry out your most extravagant threats, that might be an effective game-plan in some instances when you are dealing with Thirld World dictators who have a distorted view of reality (like Cheney and Rumsfeld themselves), but in this particular case, with Vladimir Putin, we are talking about perhaps the coolest and steadiest rational actor on the world scene today, and the crazy shtick is bound to backfire ignominiously on the deluded souls attempting to employ it.
And while he has shown that he is somewhat feckless and weak-spined, and clearly a tool of his Big-Finance patrons, I do believe that Obama himself ia also quite rational, and I doubt that he would let things get so out of hand as to risk a nuclear confrontation with Russia. That would not leave much of a playground for his daughters Masha and Sasha to romp around in after his second term in office.
So, in the end I’m more of an optimist here. Sooner or later the Kiev regime does go belly up and some form of compromise will be reached on Ukraine.
Kind Regards to all,
American Russophile
The Good, the Bad and the very Ugly
I call those who think the world’s situation is bad optimists. Idiots are in charge. The worst kind – the infallible ones. Every time it goes bad they just make it worse. The power they have is the respect everybody else gives them. Governments – not my ones – yours? Any of their institutions have no legitimacy other that the one you give them. Why are people submitting them self to this crooks? Why they really believe in this democracy nonsense? Sure they all want to be reasonable. They want to avoid worse. With all their reason with all their calculation that’s exactly what they get – that very ugly kind of worse.
Q
Assume that overt intervention is out.
Now, Bolivia just declared Israel a terrorist state. Putin could support Bolivia, not by copying her but by urging the myriad BRIC-associated nations to discuss publicly doing likewise. I am suggesting a psy-op that would terrify the Empire, national governments calling Israel what it has always been.
Now a variation. Might Putin suggest Argentina discuss publicly the feasible and practicable tactics to blockade the Malvinas/Falklands. Don’t do anything necessarily, just talk it. Prod the dying Empire.
Spain/Gibraltar ditto, not that anyone in Madrid would accede—presently!
Now, the US has myriad offensive bases throughout the world. So, suggest openly that nations discuss openly the practicalities of targeting them for destruction.
Might China be urged to ask in a threatening tone what on earth US forces are doing outside US borders? And maintain the threatening tone.
Such talk could very well consolidate into a truly effective alliance against what the world now recognises as the most brutal tyranny.
Saker’s friends should translate this suggestion to the Kremlin and to prominent Russians.
I agree that there is a high probability for yet another false flag (after MH017) by the ukraine criminals.
I’m, however, also very confident that the Russian services are well informed and prepared.
As for the main issue of usa possibly attacking Russia I’m strongly convinced: No, they won’t and they can’t.
I disagree with you, saker, in the assessment that the usa leaders are “wild dogs” (insane players). They are not. In fact they are among the most obnoxious calculator ever. The zionists puppeteers may be scum but they are clever and calculating, the generals and admirals may be scum, ready for any and every monstrosity (incl. nuking Russia), but they are not stupid and they calculate sharply. The politicians, of course, are calculator, too; after all, their whole political system is based on calculating in diverse levels and in diverse area.
What the usa is doing now is what I would call desperate bet.
As you correctly stated the usa’s weapon system aren’t worth much against a seizable adversary. Except for the navy their military is closer to worthless than to mediocre.
And, probably more importantly from a strategic viewpoint, their military has been formed and programmed to heavily rely on factual superiority.
In fact this so much so that their troops are almost worthless. usa troops always need large superiority in numbers plus strong air support plus large backup plus – don’t underestimate that brake – extremely labish and expensive logistics and support. I used to say that a usa general can not even bring in troops before there is comfy barracks incl. a px, mc donalds, starbucks, and Wifi.
Another major hurdle are the europeans. They haven’t been perfectly obedient dogs but quite stubborn and slow regarding sanctions. As soon as war gets even just close to a tangible possibility the europeans will fight teeth and nails against being implicated unless there is a quite clear, tangible an physical Russian threat directly agaist them.
I dare to say that the europeans wouldn’t go to war even if Russia invaded an took the whole of ukraine if only one could assume that they stopped there. Sure, they would make lots of noise and some sanctions but that’s about all.
This is also related to another point I disagree with. Russia *can* attack europe, and basically all of it wihout going nuclear. They have the cruise missiles and the aircraft. This isn’t WW2 where one needed to cross rivers and mountains with tanks.
And the europeans know that and that knowledge is much more present and profound than in the usa where basically only ICBMc could be thread. For europe Russia would not need to cross the nuclear level.
As I’ve elaborated earlier, usa’s chances to survice a nuclear attack on Russia are non existant; the usa would be completely obliterated. Moreover, Russia has better Anti-air capability and better delivery vehicles, i.e. usa’s chances would even be slimmer than 20 years ago and its risk would be even higher.
And that’s the problem.
( … part 2)
(part 2)
The usa is basically done with. It’s a mere matter of when, not of if they will fall. And, even worse, they can’t doing anything against it. Their only hope, now that the dollar cannon is in place and the us$ will fall, is to somehow lure Russia into making a tragically stupid move and such bringing the eu to go along with usa plans.
But usa’s only remaining strength, which they btw. played out quite masterfully, is that they are far away and have almost nomajor economic ties with Russia, which means they can put the heat up at very little cost to them, is also their main weakness, if Russia pays smart. Because without the europeans the usa do quite little to derange Russia.
So, all Russia has to do is to stick to diplomacy and peace negotiations, to more ore less covertly support Novorossija, and to let the eu feel some painful outcome of their stupid sanctions.
Don’t forget that the eu is also closed to the economic brink; they simply can’t afford major adventures.
The usa is a dead deamon. And like in horror movie it doesn’t die without some final angry roars and fire spitting.
The good new is: As soon as the usa is crippled in a wheelchair the ugly and disgusting israel problem will very soon find a very swift solution, too.
I wonder. What are the legal consequences for Gazprom failing to deliver gas to EU countries, if some stupid terrorist decides to plant bombs to the pipelines somewhere in west Ukraine? Has anyone seen those contracts?
Please. The US won’t invade. it is bogged down in too many other conflicts and the will of the American people to pursue more war is at all time lows.
Europe is terrified of the consequences of battling the Russian bear, as it contemplates the immediate aftermath, which would be a depression, from a withdrawal of gas supplies to its already insolvent economy.
Therefore Vlad holds the cards and can intervene in Ukraine at a time of his choosing and restore order. Who would challenge Russia at that point? The US, NATO? What could they do to her that she could not do back and more?
John Theodorou
If Russia is really on the right side of humanity and if her leadership is smart, they should know by now what needs to be done:
1. Officially release secret information about the true history of the last century (starting with the real founders of bolshevik revolution, Jacob Schiff and Max Warburg). Make it the official foundation on how world affairs should be conducted.
2. Separate the target of every public declaration between the corrupt, unelected leaders of most US/EU countries and the population of those countries. Make sure you help the population of every country to understand what is going on and see behind the smoke screen.
3. Putin should stop playing this humiliating game of pleasing Mutti Adolfina Merkel in those idiotic phone calls. She constantly takes a piss at him in front of the entire world. I’m sick of this masquerade.
4. Russia should understand who is behind and should reveal them. The secret history of the khazars and their crimes should be daily subject.
5. Russsia needs to attract all the good people from the world on their side and give them a confidence and guarantees they won’t be stabbed in the back. I am sure 70% of all the western population will join a Russian Foreign Legion army once they get confident that Putin is not another sell-out.
6. Russia should immediately eliminate the 5th column that lately seems is making a complete disgusting joke from sites like RT, ITAR-TASS or RIA-NOVOSTI. After they did shut down RussiaToday, there is almost nowhere else that one can read articles wich have some dignity left in them. These websites do actually more damage to Russia image than helping it. The wording the use is BAFFLING. It makes russian leadership to look like complete RETARDS.
7. Russia should stop using dollars as we speak and quickly limit the usage of Euros. Ask that all payments of natural gas to be made in Rubles which should be obtained from the Central Bank of Russia by any country after a currency swap or as a loan guaranteed bu tangible assets.
By not doing these or even give the slightest indication they are thinking of doing it, anyone that is well educated in real history and understand finance+economy will have serious reasons to doubt the good intentions of Russia.
In regards to the notion of “how do you stop, or reason with, a lunatic”, I still think that the highest echelons of the US military would step in and prevent the US from going into the abyss, and taking the world with it. As much as they sickeningly indulge the US Zionist freaks to bomb defenceless Iraqi, Palestinian & Afghan women & children, they know full well to allow similar treatment of Russian civilians is simply unthinkable.
Dear Saker,
Firstly a great clap of thanks for all you are doing to get Truth out there.
Does your extreme discomfort at “Thinking the unthinkable” indicate that you don’t consider the Protocols of the Elders of Zion valid? If you did, everything starts to fall into place. An insightful, but long, article by Yevgeny Fedorov on 31 May 2014 sets out the route that we are watching being played out now – http://abundanthope.net/pages/Political_Information_43/my-major-interest-has-always-been-psychological-warfare-and-this-is-a-doozy.shtml (I regret I don’t have the original link). If you subvert your values and thinking it all becomes very logical.
If it doesn’t work out for them, they are happy with the Samson outcome. Fortunately that will most likely be foiled.
Saker,
depletion of resources, frightening pollution of seas and soil, ruined economy, financial system on the verge of destruction:
do you really think these people are still in a position to take rational decisions?
they need total chaos to cover their crimes, which are about to be exposed.
Besides, regarding the true elites in the shadow we are not witnessing stupidity here, nor dementia, we are witnessing total evil.
You cannot predict what they are going to do because it is outside of all human reasoning and behaviour. What we are watching is the fight between good and evil, and I am afraid we could be close to the end of the movie. We cannot know: we are all in the hand of the God now. What is important is the choice we have to make: good, or evil. We have been very cleverly confused for years and kept half asleep, drowning in lies. But today the truth is becoming clear, we can see who is who, which is good and which is evil, and decide. Looking for the truth is the key, and you are doing a hell of a job (if I may say so). I believe that looking for the truth and speaking the truth is our last chance. No hero is going to save the world, not even Vladimir Putin. Only looking for the truth.
Thanks for your efforts.
Salam
AbdNour
Mr. Saker – another version of the “duck,” from a US comedian who also s comedian, Russell, who makes up satiric songs -better rhyming –
If it looks like a duck
And walks like a duck
And quacks like a duck
It’s a duck
1. the US has to have many plans involving Russia. For examples – it has old olans for invading Canada, and many plans for what to do in Cuba after that Evil Gummint ™ falls – fill the beaches with resorts – lovely pristine untouched beaches, save the superb Cuban education and medical care system because the Cubans are so proud of those, change the laws … etc.
2. One of the old plans for Russia, after the USSR broke up (I heard loud rumblings here) was to continue breaking up Russia. I note that Putin has recently spoken of the fracture points in European countries which can be exploited by unfriendly outside forces- use ethnic, class, religious, regional differences to trigger civil war. In Russia, seems to be putting a lot of emphasis on striving for far less animosity between the different ethnic groups – making sure they are all happy, so I suspect he sees this method as a potential tool of the US.
3. The US is a very cautious predator except when it comes to far weaker countries – look at how long the building of forces against Iraq in the 2nd Iraq war – your argument about irrationality is supported here because Sadam Hussein thought that the US would not invade because it was irrational to do so.
3a — what happens to the large US force in Afghanistan? They are to be sacrified? How do they get out if the route through the RF is closed off? Or is that of supreme indifference?
4. The summer months in the US are known as the “silly season” – there is a lack of good stories to cover. This may be why everybody is getting on the “2 minute Hate Putin” bandwagon – and colourful scary Putin magazine covers do sell magazines – so continue until another story comes along. Now – if this mass coverage does not stop late September – I’d be getting worried.
5. Getting the Ukrainian men into the army is going to be very hard – resources are not there – how to pay, feed, equip an army? Yesterday RT showed a scene of an angry crowd in Western Ukraine trying to tear out the hair of a government official – parliamentarian? I didn’t see the story repeated.
6. The weapons and defenses of the US are indeed weak – an MIT professor is interviewed on “Democracy Now” todeay, and says that AT MOST it has a 5% effectiveness – and talks about what actually is saving the Israelis.
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/7/31/iron_dome_or_iron_sieve_evidence?autostart=true
The rest of today’s democracynow.org program covers the Gaza news.
— Medea
Is this not the Nature of the State ?? https://archive.org/details/TheJfkAssassinationAndTheGangsterNatureOfTheStatePart1Of2
I don’t believe any military intervention will occur by NATO/US/EU, because the military command will say there’s no way to win this war. Russia has to maintain the same course (diplomatic resolution) and try to the limit, to get a negotiated deal for the Ukraine conflict. Time is still on Russia’s side and it’s position of strength is growing each day passing. The empire is desperate and more each day. More and more become aware of the fact that the US is going down. Sure, the US is preparing there next dirty tricks, but Russia knows this game too. There ready to retaliate if it becomes a necessity. Tomorrow, we should ear from the investigators about the black boxes. Maybe, we will have some evidence of the wrong doing on the part of Ukraine…
saker said:
“(…) an overwhelming number of you answered that “yes” and a good part of you was even emphatically sure of that. Why? Because we all know how crazy and deluded are Imperial Overlords are. Crazy and deluded enough not to quality as “rational actor”? Crazy and deluded enough to play a game a chicken with a train? Crazy and deluded enough to risk the planet on “Hail Mary? Alas, I think that this is a very real possibility.
—
ancient proverb:
Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad.
The USAN elites are currently in that state of mind.
So, yes, they’re “Crazy and deluded enough to risk the planet on “Hail Mary””
An empire, the size of the USAN, is far more dangerous on its decay than it ever was when on the peak of its power.
.
I don’t know, Saker. As I have already told other time, I think Putin is a very brave man and a genius, and so far he and GRU&FSB have played a magnificent match, but I’m afraid Putin is in love with his soft lovable ways. He looks stoned! After UE/USA sanctions, the only thing he has done: ban juices from Ukraine! Heeeelp me! Today, in Sloviansk, three Americans military officers were killed, and the general Key Randy Allen has been injured, now it’s the moment to go and split Ukraine in two parts, before the NATO enters!
Saker.I would say to Putin: “Prepare for the worst but hope for the best” As “Anonymous” wrote something like “its de dollar stupid” Well, easy to connect the ends: Saddam, Gadaffi traid to refuse the dollar see what happened. Now is Putin but he is not alone, China and India (among others) realize the gigantic fraud,is like you were giving products, commodities and getting paid with stones by the US due to the lack on intrinsic value of the US dollar. You do not have to be a genius to guess that this situation is unsustainable. Put it that way you give money to your enemy so he goes and buys weapons with the same money to kill you.