Today, I want to begin with a small allegorical story.
One upon a time, there was a bear sleeping in his lair and minding his business. One day, a small group of rodents decided to have some fun time pestering the bear. So they began running around, making a lot of noise (some even dared the bear to come out and fight them) and even threw colorful little pebbles at the bear. The bear mostly ignored them hoping they would eventually tire from that silly behavior and go away. But the rodents not only stayed, they began pelting the bear with even more pebbles and, sure enough, what had to happen happened: one pebble (with “ridiculous genocide claim” written on it) landed right on the eyelid of the bear and that *really* pissed the bear off. He finally got up, moved to the entrance of his lair and looked at the scurrying rodents. The bear wondered, what shall he do with these little rodents next? The rodents wondered about the same thing. And so they told the bear that if he dares leave his lair, they will pelt him with even more pebbles, so he better not move. What do you think the bear will do next?
***
Yesterday Putin gave a quite amazing (and short) press conference. Not only did he declare that Russia recognizes the LDNR Republics in their own, legal, borders (i.e. the full Donetsk and Lugansk regions), he also listed the four steps needed to be taken by the Ukraine to avoid a direct, unilateral, Russian action:
- The Ukraine must recognize Crimea and Sevastopol as Russian territory
- The Ukraine must officially renounce joining NATO
- The Ukraine must negotiate a settlement with the LDNR Republics
- The Ukraine must be demilitarized and declared neutral
This is clearly an ultimatum, but this time, to the authorities in Kiev.
Now a few simple comments:
Since Russia has recognized the LDNR in their original, administrative, regional borders, this means that all the Ukie forces between the current Line of Contact (LOC) and the borders between the original borders of the LDNR and the rest of the Ukraine are now de facto and de jure a foreign occupying force on the territory of a Russian ally which Russia promised to protect.
Just ponder the implications of that for a while, let it sink in: until yesterday, the Ukronazi forces were on their own territory, at least legally speaking. Now they are abroad and unwelcome.
Quite logically, several DNR and LNR officials have now demanded that Kiev withdraw these forces completely from the LDNR territory. As a small carrot, LDNR officials have said that if the Ukies retreat voluntarily there will be no further action taken. Conversely, that means that if the Ukies stay, the LDNR will do what is needed to make them leave.
That is an LDNR ultimatum to Kiev.
In plain English this means this:
- Putin has demanded that the Ukronazi forces immediately stop their attacks
- The LDNR has demanded that the Ukronazi forces immediately withdraw from all the territories the LDNR claims, and Russia recognizes, as belonging to the LDNR
Some LDNR official have offered this: stop the shelling, move at least your heavy force away from the LOC as you are supposed to under the ceasefire agreements and we won’t move our forces in. In other words, if the Ukies move out, the LDNR forces will stay out, but the territory vacated by the Ukies will become legally LDNR’s.
Since there is exactly zero chance that the Nazis in Kiev will accept, what does that tell you about the next move by the LDNR and, possibly, Russia?
Does anybody still seriously believe that Putin is bluffing?
In Russia, Medvedev has made a quite remarkable “patriotic comeback” with some very good words at the meeting of the Russian Security Council. He also posted this quite mocking tweet after Olaf decided to declare that NS2 would not be certified “now” (whatever that means). Olaf is already starting to backpedal and make ambiguous statements about the long term future of NS2.
And, the beauty of the current dynamics, is that the Germans are doing it to themselves (and to the rest of the EU) while Russia STILL has not used the “energy weapon” against anybody. So Russia cannot be accused of using energy as a weapon or reneging on her obligations!
Russia is offering cheap gas to Germany and the rest of the EU. But if the latter want to please Uncle Shmuel so badly that they are willing to wreck their own economies – by all means, Russia fulfilled her obligation and it sure ain’t her fault that the Germans are now (at least pretending to) renege on their part of the deal.
If the Europeans want to turn up the pain dial upon themselves, Russia sure won’t object.
And did I mention that the recent increase in energy prices has yielded such a profit for Gazprom, that it has already paid for the Russian investment in NS2! If the Germans really pull out of the deal, there will be huge lawsuits which will make the Germans pay even more. Finally, with the energy prices going up again, Gazprom is making billions of dollars of extra revenue.
As for the USA – the likely increase in the costs of energy (oil and gas) will provide an even further boost to the already very high inflation. But does “Biden” care?
Nope. “Biden” is so drunk on his ideological delusions that he rather accept an even worse inflation if that can hurt Russia (which it won’t, but nevermind that). That his sanctions won’t really hurt Russia is entirely irrelevant, in Zone A all that matters is make believe and verbiage. Facts don’t matter one bit.
I have been saying it for a long while already: there is no “US policy” left, all that’s left is chaos, corruption, gross incompetence, maniacal delusion of still being the planet’s Sheriff combined with a rather comical belief that the US can scare Russia into submission.
Joe, in Russia’s long history much stronger leaders than you have already tried that. Do you want to end like them?
Apparently yes!
In fact, the US has announced that there will be no Putin-Biden meeting and no Lavrov-Blinken meeting either. I am sure that both Putin and Lavrov are sobbing in abject fear and total despair…
There is a good chance that all this will end up with a full severance of diplomatic relations between Russia and the USA (along with a few EU Tabakis à la UK).
Furthermore, to show the “determination of the US led free West” the US is sending a few hundred extra troops to Latvia. And some helicopters from Italy to Poland. And if that was not terrifying enough, Canada’s Trudeau is also sending a few hundred extra Canadian troops to the Baltics.
At this pace, in a few weeks NATO might have a “combined regiment” safely tucked away somewhere in Poland or the Baltics, while knowing full well that Russia will never use any force against the 3B simply because Russia has exactly zero interest in, or desire for, them or their lands.
In fact, these statlets are as much in freefall as Banderastan, why should Russia want them? As for Poland, the more neutral ground between them and Russia, the better for Russia. In history both Russia and Germany have tried to manage Poland, now it is the time for the USA to give it a shot. I wish both the Poles and the US Americans a lot of fun – amusez-vous bien! (though it is still better to have to administer the Polish colony than the Ukie one.
The truth is that even if all the Ukraine’s neighbors simply and magically were allowed to take all the Ukrainian territory they want, a lot would be left unclaimed (most of the central and northern part).
That’s how bad a shithole country 404 has become… Maybe somebody will just fence them in and feed them like in a zoo?
Does anybody seriously believe that Russia will be impressed by any of that ridiculous nonsense?
Until the time of writing this, the Ukronazis have continued shelling and shooting, but there has been no full-scale ground attack (yet!). The Ukie special services have sent a few diversionary groups into the LDNR and even into a small strip of Russian land. These groups were detected and intercepted by the Russian Border Guards. The Ukies tried to send a few BMP infantry fighting vehicles to rescue their soldiers only to have them destroyed by the Russian military’s anti-tank weapons.
Today the Ukies continued to direct their artillery attacks and diversionary groups at the LDNR. Water and electricity are off in some parts of the LDNR. People are still dying every day and there is no signs of the Ukie bombardments abating. Especially violent combats are taking place near the town of Nikolaevka.
The Ukies have also declared a state of emergency (to be approved by the Rada) and are now making more and more noises about re-arming themselves with nuclear weapons. Smart move when Putin says that the Ukraine must be disarmed :-)
By the way, the Russian Investigative Committee has declared that Russia knows, by name, all the folks who on the Ukie side gave orders to shell the LDNR. There are already over 400 criminal cases opened for war crimes, including 85 top Ukronazi officials, beginning with Turchinov and his military commanders Galetei and Gritsenko, Arsen Avakov and their deputies Shevchuk, Dublian and Gerashchenko. The notorious ZioNazi oligarch Igor Kolomoiskii, the commanders of the Ukie air force and navy (or whatever is left of them by now), the Chief of the Ukie Airborne forces, the Commander of Ukie Special Forces, the main Urkonazi Dmitrii Iarosh and many many more Ukronazis are also on that list.
Frankly, I think that the Ukies are terrified.
I know I sure would if I was in their place.
They cannot simply retreat, there is no way Ze can order that and not be overthrown.
They cannot attack because now it is too late, all these force comparisons between the Banderastani forces and the LDNR forces have become, if not irrelevant, than at least a lot less relevant now that Putin has basically prepared both the military and the legal conditions necessary for any kind of Russian military operation, from strikes with standoff weapons, to a ground and/or amphibious assault. All he has to do now is say “go”. Judging by his tone yesterday, not only do I feel that he is willing to give that order, but I also think that he has accepted that this is the “least bad” option for Russia and the LDNR.
Again, Putin said that he fully intends to disarm the Ukraine, at least from all her heavy weapons. Since the Ukies won’t give them up, I see only one way to achieve this: disarm them by force.
So, in one way or another, I expect major combat action in the Eastern Ukraine in the next couple of days.
Keep in mind that the West’s response to Putin’s words and actions only serve to further convince Russia that 1) more sanctions and subversion is inevitable 2) violence is unavoidable.
Remember these famous words by Putin: “Fifty years ago, the streets of Leningrad taught me one thing: If a fight’s inevitable, you must strike first“?
It appears to me that the Kremlin has concluded that a violent fight is, indeed, inevitable. You figure out the rest :-)
In other news, Putin and Aliev have just signed a major cooperation treaty between Russia and Azerbaijan.
Yes, Aliev decided to travel to Moscow and meet Putin on the day Russia officially recognized the LDNR. It is a very smart move by both of these politicians. First, Aliev needs to show Turkey that yes, we are friends and allies, but I will balance that with my friendship and alliance with Russia. Erdogan might be a crazy megalomaniac, but he ain’t stupid and he sure did get that message.
After all, who said that Erdogan must be the leader of the Turkic world?
I am pretty sure that Russia (and China!) would very much prefer Aliev for a very long list of reasons, including the fact that he is very smart, very realistic, quite ruthless when needed and he understands Putin very well (the two are good friends). And since Erdogan is trying to play both the Russian and the Ukie card, here is a clear warning to him, be nice, or else…
So where do we go from here?
I would say that major combat operations against the Ukie forces in the LDNR republics are probably inevitable and, barring some last minute miracle, the Russians will soon disarm a good part of the Ukie forces. Remember that Putin specifically added the disarmament of the Ukraine as one of his demands.
Does anybody think that anybody can stop the disarmament (we are talking about major weapon systems, not AKs) of the Ukraine by Russia in the near/middle term?
I don’t.
Next, I think that Putin will successfully impose all his demands upon the Ukraine, which means two things:
- The Kiev regime will collapse, at least de facto
- The rest of Banderastan will eventually break-up into different regimes and successor states
I think that there is a high probability that the US/NATO will move some forces into western Ukraine, to “protect their people and infrastructure” in and around Lvov, and to declare that “their show of unity and determination stopped Russia from invading the entire Ukraine”. I don’t think that Russia will object too much against any NATO move inside and limited to the Lvov/Ivano-Frankovsk region. These are not historically Russian lands and they are basically irrelevant to Russia.
If the US wants the Poles to oppress the Ukronazis in their own western Ukraine, nobody in Russia will care.
As for the West, to take credit for a defeat is a long US/NATO tradition, so such an operation can be used to save NATO’s face.
But that won’t be enough.
The West has already been beaten politically, and now a military defeat of some kind is probably inevitable.
I am not talking about an invasion of the entire Ukraine (God forbid!) but it will be clear to all that the Russian bear forced NATO to retreat, politically and militarily. The Anglos are too smart to volunteer for a war with Russia. The Polaks are, as always, only hiding behind the backs of their latest (Anglo) masters. The Balts are irrelevant.
So the only option is to fight the Russians down the the last Ukrainian and when that happens, it might not be an “NATO defeat” legally speaking, but like on 08.08.08 it will be a crushing defeat for NATO publicly. Maybe not as bad as Kabul, but much worse than Georgia in 08.08.08.
At that point, a lot of folks will be wondering if NATO is worth the money spent on. And once that process begins, there will be no stopping it.
Good!
If the US/NATO/EU had any brains, they would quickly accept the total and final loss of the LDNR, following by a declaration that the Ukraine has become a neutral, demilitarized, state. In exchange for that, Russia would provide firm security guarantees and cheap energy. But that would be common sense, not exactly the kind of mindset which brought us to today’s crisis.
So let’s see what Uncle Shmuel and his Eurorodents will do next.
My expectation is more hot air from the West and more unilateral Russian actions in the East.
Stay tuned.
Andrei
Thank you for the recap….
MIne is as follows……
Barbarossa II just foundered on it’s “Stalingrad” == Novorossia….
Bagration II just began….
Given time….
All of Ukraine will be taken…. oblast by oblast… referendum by referendum….
Including Galicia….
Then the matter of Georgia will be dealt with….
Then… the balts…
Putin has promised to protect his Russian people…. and to rid the FSU of Nazism…
Again, read what he said….
Of course, this will take years….
INDY
Military operations have begun!!! My family is hearing fire. :(
My family heared explosions this morning in central Ukraine Cherkasy, quite probably false flag events. A friend did send us a picture of people having changed the Ukrainian flag on the Kharkovska rada building with a Russian one.
It will be like this i asume…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIiA4SM3LEY
Yes, pretty much :-)
I picture it like a divorced couple. Russia and Ukraine were married for 240 years, they divorced 8 years ago and now the love has returned as hate. Picture Maria Zakarova chasing Zelensky around with a cooking pot in her hand
…and maybe within the US something similar will happen: the lion who has had enough of treason (election fraud, attempts to overthrow the government before by RussiaGate years; corruption (Ukraine links with Hunter Biden., John Kerry’s son, Pelosi’s son), etc). Military action within the US to restore order and thus revealing all the corrupt links with the Ukies and ending the colour revolution. That should change the relationship between Ukraine and US.
In the meantime: congratulations to the Bear who does not tolerate any further war crimes. I will never forget the images of what happened in Odessa and the plan to treat Crimeans in a similar way (via some excellent documentaries on these events).
You were completely right, Andrei, as the Russians are attacking military installations at this moment and disarming the Ukies.
Andreas
(I will use my full name from now on, not to confuse our names for readers)
I do wish other Russian allies would support Donbras independence. Fence sitters like India playing both sides? I don’t know if it would mean anything, but it would help the optics. Maybe they just want to stay out of the fight.
The Empire is dead, as is the USA, but they have plenty of MOMENTUM left, and altruism is not something practiced in international relations.
India will still sit on the Fence
China will back Russia, but in a measured tone.
Look at how Russia does absolutely NOTHING for the Palestinian people, so she can hardly complain that others are not helping her in her own struggles.
I wish all these countries had 10% of the courage of Iran…
He, Blinkton, says he got his backers, but how long are these country’s going to suffer before they either jump ship or place an expiration date on their relevance.
And even then the usa becomes just another lonely island.
What did Iran DO to help LDPR though?
They are courageous as a cornered rat, but that is less of their development and more of those, who cornered them.
Same holds for comparing very soft and ambivalent messages from China with very harsh ones of Russia – we are cornered much more than China is, but less than Iran.
What’s with the IRI? The Persians have their own interests – a nuclear deal, the development of oil and gas fields, the construction of pipelines and the launch of gas to the EU, India, China.
What is LDNR to them, they will make a deal and recognize it, or maybe not – it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t matter.
We and Lukashenkо do not recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Crimea. And you are LDNR, we need to change personnel … but carefully so as not to break something.
Saker, that was a brilliant comment. I just happened to see it. That could be unpacked into an amazing rant. As it is, it amazes me in its potent, condensed form.
The observation of momentum – yes indeed, it takes time for minds to change and for policies to reposition. Iran, as you point out, simply cuts through that inertial sluggishness with moral courage.
So, one’s moral courage can transcend even one’s mental comfort – what a lovely observation.
Many thanks.
~~
Since I’m already off-topic, let me say how good it is to see you appear so frequently, in these rapid and short briefings, and in your comments section.
I like Unz and regard it as a praiseworthy space, but since you ended that commitment, you have enriched the Vineyard in an exponential way. It was a good move.
India has a Kashmir problem it cannot resolve like LDNR and other regional hotspots
And China wants Taiwan and to not give Tibet any ideas.
putin panders to the 600,000 supposed jewish russian emigres to israel. he believes it helps him at home. the israeli’s have throw crap at putin russia by bombing hell out of syria and making strikes near or on latakia. also they shadowed a russia plane into latakia and forced it to crash. putin kept quiet. in fact the world stays silent as for any help for palestine. one day iran will have to do what putin is doing now and that is realize that they will have to militarily engage the zio’s the zios will continue to kill and threaten iran and iranians.
Well I am Indian-American (but born in India).
I can say this – and not to switch topics – but India – unlike China – still has a long way to go economically.
It certainly has a substantial military and economy.
But unfortunately, India is entirely dependent on Western commerce in order to develop further.
Sanctions would have an absolutely brutal effect on India – which is neither resource/energy-rich nor manufacturing-rich.
So I don’t see India speaking up much in the near term.
But if I could, I’m pretty much 100% sure they would side with the Russians.
Which is why they are not speaking up.
India also has a sizeable portion of the elite that is blindly pro US.
Don’t forget- India considers itself to be the inheritors of the East India Company, China considers itself to be its victim.
The Tatas, and no doubt many others, made their fortune selling opium to China.
Well, the British did unite (aka create) India for the most part. It is correct for the Inds to not reject that history. The existence of India – as it is today – is founded on the EIC after all.
Of course, the British did not give one iota about India. BUT it was in their interest for the coplony to be functioning and stable. Which in turn meant lot of bad, but some good.
Rejecting everything would be stupid from the Inds. And they are not stupid.
As for their relationship with China, it was always one of a rivalry. Subdued only by the montains that separate them. It is defined by the geography so is unlikely to change. Not until flying cars are the norm.
I wouldn’t say that India and other allies are truly “fence sitters.” Their statements (and lack of certain other statements) make it implicitly quite clear that they support Russia’s recognition of Donbass independence. But they have to be careful to avoid openly saying so, so as to not set a precedent that could hurt them – such as with Kashmir or other regions that might try to breakaway from India.
Lots of comment on my country, India, Here. Yes, India fears impact on separatist tendencies in Jammu and Kashmir and so on. But , this is entirely mistaken. There are no dominoes, any more . And you can deal with each of these issues independently. The American lobby in India is stoking hostility to Russia , but, even Modi tries to preserve his strategic autonomy and avoids putting all his eggs in Westren basket. Moreover, Russian weapons are the mainstay of India’s armed forces.Most countries have heterogenous ethnic makeup and substantial autonomy is a proven solution. India , herself has entered into the Indo-SriLanka accord to obtain autonomy for the Tamils of SriLanka . It resembles the Minsk Accords in Ukraine, and another similarity is that both accords have failed in implementation because of SL/Ukraine backtracking on their agreement to them. India is not strong enough to impose its design on SL , unlike Russia in its sphere of influence.
Yes, Canada is sending 460 more troops to Latvia, bringing the total to a staggering 1000. Nevermind that they had to import foreign mercs to protect Ottawa from native “truckers”.
In practical terms this means that there will be a few hundred Latvian “brides” (or other approved domestic partners) emigrating to Canada over the next couple of years.
Canada’s glorious men-at-arms have just proven that they are capable of defeating unarmed civilians. All it took was ground infantry and a Calvary charge backed by armored cars, chemical weapons, brute force, and seizing the protesters’ bank accounts.
Surely Putin is shaking in his boots… from laughter at the idea that the Mounties will save the day.
Not wrong in that. Watching my country attack peaceful protesters was tough. It is not sitting well with most CDNs.
Good afternoon. Could you please reveal what you mean by “foreign mercenaries”. If possible, a link to the information. I follow the events in Canada, but I have not heard this.
Same deal with the all-dressed-in-black Mercs that appeared in Melbourne to stifle the protests there. They clearly weren’t locals.
There are several reasons why people are speculating on the use of private security contractors.
1. The 13 page ruling relating to the invocation of the Emergencies Act as published in the Canada Gazette included this peculiar exemption (see below). Nobody has yet explained why refugees, temporary residents and “protected persons” (whatever that means!) would suddenly need to enter the Red Zone.
2. On Feb 18 and 19, a large number of security forces were seen in all sorts of uniforms. Some were clearly identified by name and badge number (e.g. Vancouver police). (Why were Vancouver police brought in anyway?) However a large number of these forces were heavily masked and while they were in identifiable uniforms, they had NO individual identifier. This is really, really, really IMPORTANT.
The above are two really important FACTS that have not been properly explained and indeed brushed under the rug.
As well some anecdotal observations:
3. A large number of people in the firing line, so to speak, who attempted to engage in dialogue with the security forces reported that they understood neither English nor French.
4. There are several videos of these uniformed security forces taking what looks like “souvenir photos” in the following days. I think it’s quite weird and unprofessional for groups of police to be taking photos of themselves while IN UNIFORM! If they wanted photos because they’d been flown in from somewhere, they could have done it while off duty.
https://rumble.com/vvgbwv-police-take-souvenir-photo-at-parliament.html
In addition to the above, some people from an airport north of Ottawa photographed UN planes and asked why they were there. This led to the claim that “UN troops were used”. It turns out that Voyageur Airways does maintenance on UN planes at that airport.
The problem is that the legacy media “debunked the conspiracy theory” that UN troops were used WHILE not addressing the key point: were PRIVATE security companies sending in refugees and temporary residents in actual real uniforms to make up the shortfall in security services needed. This is another example of how language is used to obfuscate the issue. Clearly UN troops are usually not private; they are seconded from national military troops. So by debunking the “UN troops” claim, investigation of the use of private security contractors has been swept under the rug.
Excerpt from the Canada Gazette
https://canadagazette.gc.ca/rp-pr/p2/2022/2022-02-15-x1/html/sor-dors21-eng.html
Exemption
(2) Subsection (1) does not apply to (a) a person registered as an Indian under the Indian Act;
(b) a person who has been recognized as a Convention refugee or a person in similar circumstances to those of a Convention refugee within the meaning of subsection 146(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations who is issued a permanent resident visa under subsection 139(1) of those regulations;
(c) a person who has been issued a temporary resident permit within the meaning of subsection 24(1) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act and who seeks to enter Canada as a protected temporary resident under subsection 151.1(2) of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Regulations;
(d) a person who seeks to enter Canada for the purpose of making a claim for refugee protection;
(e) a protected person; (f) a person or any person in a class of persons whose presence in Canada, as determined by the Minister of Citizenship and Immigration or the Minister of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, is in the national interest.
Regards,
“Eurorodents” wins the neologism of the year award – and we’re only into February.
Olaf Scholz is just too much, when I saw him I really thought that he looks like an old hamster…
“Olaf Scholz is just too much, when I saw him I really thought that he looks like an old hamster…”
You are too kind.
Ukraine has already been nicknamed Galushkin Kaganate. Having followed this path, however, I am inclined to clarify – Ganushkin Kaganate. Ganushkin is a great Russian psychiatrist, and in Russia half of psychiatric hospitals are named after Ganushkin, and the other half is named after Kashchenko (just like a psychiatrist)
It could actually be shortened to Eurodents :)
Or EUrats.
Thank you, Mr Saker, for bringing those of us in the west who choose and seek a viewpoint other than what is “fed”. I like your blog a lot and Thank you most importantly for bringing sanity to the situations of the world.
and to tag on to Adam’s thank you …. I really find yours ( Orlov’s) wading into the comments section worth every second of my time. So enriching.
All the folks who on the Ukie side gave orders to shell the LDNR will be accepted into Canada compliments of Trudeau/Freeland(Chomiak).
Good!
Russia is grateful to Canada for that waste disposal, I am sure
What worries me most is that the psychopaths that rule the US seem to be the type that think: “If I can’t have it, no-one can.” Meaning, that if their grip on the world starts to slip they may simply revert to nuclear war on the pretence that at least Russia won’t get anything (or China) even if it means turning all of their lands into a slag heap too.
The question is: how sane are the people at the Pentagon? If the movers and shakers command nuclear war, maybe the soldiers would sit on their hands while a few Burevestniks (or maybe Spetsnaz) lance the boil.
Then everyone could be friends.
The problem with the psychopaths (the pathocracy) is that they are unable to see or predict the real consequences of their actions. They see what they want to see (as per their wishful thinking) and that is why are they so dangerous.
Saker:
On the subject of energy prices it looks like the US is looking to mitigate the pain by lifting sanctions on Iran, or play one side against the other, constantly changing the status of zone B states from friend /enemy depending on the situation.
Its a problem for the US, keeping Iran off world markets gives China a huge discount on oil they buy from Iran,since the pentagon has China the number 1 threat they want that discount ended, however Isreal wants Iran to still be sanctioned to keep up its position against Iran , so the US is between a rock {pentagon} an a hard place {Isreal}
FYI. Oil prices have gone up in recent days as have gas prices, electricity rates, inflation in general. But what surprised me most was the rate of increase of Commodity Price of WHEAT was more than double that of oil. We pay most in higher prices for food, which has been kind of obvious at the super market.
Can you guess who the biggest wheat exporter on the planet is?
Andrei
Yah, I read that too. Ukraine.
from https://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/
Below are the 15 countries that exported the highest dollar value worth of wheat during 2020.
Russia: US$7.9 billion (17.7% of total wheat exports)
United States: $6.32 billion (14.1%)
Canada: $6.3 billion (14.1%)
France: $4.5 billion (10.1%)
Ukraine: $3.6 billion (8%)
Australia: $2.7 billion (6%)
I actually went looking for wheat exports by volume rather than the USD value which does not give an accurate representation. I couldn’t locate anything that was completely current for exports alone and am not in a position to buy reports. But the countries listed a few years ago for volume or the production volumes in 2019 most definitely are not in the same order as when the USD is used to investigate the figures. Although Russia sat at the top for exports in the past and I would assume that trend over years has continued.
Apologies I couldn’t find a reliable and current source to cite.
Ad – each year the absolute amounts may vary significantly as t here will be a year-to-year variation in the success of the harvests based on weather differences. Some years US/Canada may have favorable weather, others Russia/Ukraine may have. Some years they may all do quite well.
One year’s figures is less important than those six nations are the big six.
“I actually went looking for wheat exports by volume rather than the USD value”
Wheat is not something standard like gold or silver. There are different types and their prices are very different.
The wheat grown in places like the UK and Norway is unsuitable for making real bread or pasta. Wheat from sunny places like Australia has far more glutine.
Much “wheat” is only suitable for feeding animals and poultry.
They are even further down the list when you look at volumes
Top Wheat Producing Countries
from https://www.worldatlas.com/articles/top-wheat-producing-countries.html
Rank Country Wheat Produced (Tonnes)
1 China 134,340,630
2 India 98,510,000
3 Russian Federation 85,863,132
4 United States of America 47,370,880
5 France 36,924,938
6 Australia 31,818,744
7 Canada 29,984,200
8 Pakistan 26,674,000
9 Ukraine 26,208,980
10 Germany 24,481,600
It doesnt cost any more to grow a fruit or veggie than it did 100 years ago, its the cost to bring it to market 24/7/365 for everyone, that drives up and brings us the inflated mkt price.
You can call it yesterdays bad planning if you want cause their aint no fixin it.
More fertilizers and pesticides are used today. Both made from fossil fuels. As well as fuel for irrigation pumps, machinery for planting, harvesting, processing, sorting, washing, etc. For livestock you need feed, water, vet services, drugs, barns, coups, and styes. All these things involve fossil fuels. A lot goes on before the product leaves the farm today. The Green Revolution of the 60’s requires a lot of energy.
@Alabama: “You can call it yesterdays bad planning”.
I call it yesterday’s good planning (by a mighty handful of financial operators); aka, the “Great Reset” by Klaus Schwab and those other schwabs at the WEF.
If I look at a farmer with a stable of milking cows, 50 years ago and now:
– fifty years ago the farmer removed the dirty straw by hand, with a pitchfork, and dumped the straw on a dung heap.
– today the farmer pushes a button, and a system of chains and pulleys moves the straw out of the stable. Then the farmer cleans up the stable with a hose.
The new systdm is much more comfortable; but more expensive.
That’s why the system is so much more patient today than it was yesterday?, b/c it is comfortable and expensive.
You know what’s rapidly increasing in price (in real terms) but it never makes the news (at any outlet), mostly because there’s no central “market” for it?
Water.
But if Iran, China and Russia continue to cooperate closely, the USA can only lose by such methods.
It would be like a poker game where all the players but one are sharing information about their cards and intentions.
plein dans le mille
Google translation,MOD:
spot on
NATO going into Western Ukraine helps establish the organic partitioning of 404. Lvov/Ivano-Frankovsk region is European turf. They’ll take it and store their nazi apes there, a zooland.
And thus, can’t complain about Novorossiya going to Russia’s sphere.
NATO will be pushed back to the Oder…..
Vladimir Vladimirovich said so….
He does not bluff….
The PRC will be consulted on ways to De-Nazify Galicia….
They are the most experienced…
Look for SOEs to be created/refurbished to take control of all critical infrastructure…
If you want to know what the energy problems facing the EU/USA are.. visit…
Crashoil.blogspot.com
Let my Spanish Engineer enlighten you….
As for USA’s energy future, visit Oily Stuff and let Mike Sheldman enlighten you…
Did you notice that Iran is going to develop Cambodia’s oil fields???
Did you notice that Imran Khan of Pakistan was in Moscow recently, and complained bitterly that his
country’s former allegiance to the US cost it cheap gas from Iran…. and set back a critical pipeline project…
for years…
Now… exactly how long will that go on??
Nepal was offered USD$ 500 million with strings attached…. sparked riots in the streets led by the
communists… How long before the Chinese offer a better deal…. before the elites compromised
by the CIA have accidents???
We live in interesting times…
INDY
“They’ll take it and store their nazi apes there, a zooland.”
This is the only debatable thing you said.
They do not want crazies in zoo. Can chew the chain and attack zookeeper. Nazis will be ordered to charge right into Novorussian thermobaric oven. And then pictured as innocent victims of Russian barbarism.
Seems the Saker has been prophetic because the new breaking news is DNR/LNR has just asked for emergency military assistance officially from Moscow, which means Putin’s cassus belli is now in effect and presumably Russian troops will soon begin rolling into Donbas proper. We’ll see how it develops
after hearing putins speech the other day, where he mentioned the history of ukraina I got the impresion this is not going to end with the 2 republics.
i cannot see how he would fail to include odessa and other russian friendly oblasts into a massive strategic advantage of a rukraine blocking access to the sea, and allowing proper land link with fresh water et al to crimea.
and, not because of the strategic advantage. but because of the fraternal bond that was broken by external meddling in the last 100 years.
Well, he did say that the entire “Ukrainian project” is illegitimate, toxic, non-viable and dangerous.
That does not mean he wants Russia to administer country 404.
Just the costs of rebuilding the LDNR will be staggering, and policing it won’t be much fun either.
Yes, Russia has moved in and will move again.
But only the strict minimum to achieve her goals.
as such, the strict minimum depends on designated goals. i posit that those goals might include liberating all russian friendly regions, and even aquire strategic tactical advantages.
the future will show if my intuition was correct.
as i mentioned in previous comment in previous thread, if russia can manage bielorussia, it will be able to manage rukraine as well.
as for resources to rebuild, thats what friends better than allies are for.
Crimea-style referendums for the various oblasts? Some may prefer to be independent, neutral, and perhaps in Russia’s interest to let this happen if not in critical locations? Azov Sea? Adjacent to RF borders?
Everything the USA/ West is doing is merely face saving. They are truly powerless.
I’m really looking forward to what is about to happen.
The Russians have a plan; and that plan will have included the West’s entirely predictable, illegal, vindictive and pointless sanctions, to “punish” Putin, (for what exactly? Since when was protecting lives illegal?)
Russia’s plan will doubtless include an eye watering response to those pointless sanctions, probably timed to coincide with Shoigu beginning his dialogue with the Ukrainians.
It didn’t have to be this way.
“ Shoigu beginning his dialogue with the Ukrainians…”
That made me laugh out loud. Yes, now it’s time for Shoigu to say something.
Lol funny about all those sanctions on Russia for in 2021 our trade deficit with Russia was a whopping $23,306,800,000 and the U.S. has run a trade deficit with Russia for the last 28 years.
The official entry of Russian troops into the territory of the LDNR
The president has the right to send in troops by his order, but he will go a long way – through the Parliament (State Duma and the Federation Council)
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13824025
Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov:
Letters of appeal were addressed to Russian President Vladimir Putin from the head of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Leonid Pasechnik, and the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, he said. – The heads of the aforementioned republics, on their own behalf and on behalf of their peoples, once again express their gratitude to the President of Russia for the recognition of their states.
The heads of the two republics, in connection with the current situation, and also in order to prevent civilian casualties and a humanitarian catastrophe, on the basis of Articles 3 and 4 of the treaties on friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between the Russian Federation and the republics, ask the President of Russia to assist in repelling the aggression of the armed forces and formations of Ukraine.
The appeals emphasize that at present, due to the aggravation of the situation and threats from Kiev, the citizens of the republics are forced to leave their homes, their evacuation to Russia continues. In the context of ongoing military aggression by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the republics, the destruction of civilian and industrial infrastructure, schools, hospitals, kindergartens and, worst of all, the death of civilians, including children.
“Kyiv continues to build up its military presence on the line of contact, while receiving comprehensive support, including military support, from the United States and other Western states. The Kiev regime is focused on resolving the conflict by force,” the appeals addressed to the Supreme Commander of the RF Armed Forces V. IN. Putin.
Hello Andrew
In a previous Thread> /russian-duma-ratifies-the-recognition-of-the-ldnr-open-thread/
Cas from Germany, introduced a fascinating Report, which i will reproduce here but only in the english translation. The topic appears to have been raised by Alexander Panin -. If this information is known now, i am assuming that the Russian government must have been aware of it at some time – but even if not, then surely it is absolute dynamite, as it (appears to) form the legal basis for Russia to eject the USA and NATO out of the whole of the Ukraine by force.
I would appreciate your opinion on this information. i think you might have the contacts to be able to clarify the situation. It would make the work of Lavrov and Shigu so much easier if this document was validated.
Google-translate from mid:-
“The Secretary-General of the United Nations declared that Ukraine has not applied for registering the boundaries since 1991, so that the state of Ukraine does not exist
And we do not know about it !!!
: 07.04.2014 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon issued an amazing statement whose dissemination is prohibited in Ukrainian media and on the Internet. At the meeting of the UN Security Council, the conflict between the two states was brought to language. From this, the following conclusion was drawn:
Ukraine has no longer registered its limits since 25.12.1991. The registration of the limits of Ukraine as a sovereign state is not done in the UNO.
Therefore, it can be assumed that Russia does not commit infringements with regard to Ukraine.
According to the CIS Treaty, the area of Ukraine is an administrative district of the USSR. Therefore, anyone can be given the blame for separatism and the violent change of the limits of Ukraine.
According to international law, the country simply has no officially recognized limits.
In order to solve this problem, Ukraine must conclude the border education with the neighboring states and seek the approval of neighboring countries, including Russia, to their common border. It is necessary to document everything and sign contracts with all neighboring countries.
The European Union has promised Ukraines support in this important issue and decided to make the entire technical assistance.
But Russia will sign a border agreement with Ukraine? No of course not!
Since Russia is the legal successor of the USSR (this is confirmed by the decisions of international dishes on property disputes between the former USSR and abroad), belong to the areas where Ukraine, Belarus and Noworossija are, Russia, and nobody has the right, without Russias approval of this area.
Basically, Russia now only has to explain that this area is Russian and that everything that happens in this area is an inner matter of Russia.
Any interference is considered as a measure against Russia. On this basis you can cancel the elections of 25 May 2014 and do what the people want!
According to the Budapest memorandum and other agreements, there are no limits of Ukraine. The state of Ukraine does not exist (and has never existed!).
Alexander Panin,
Central news”
Wonderful, Andrei! I need to keep up with your blog before doing anything else every day now.
The Russian military should develop sets of playing cards printed with the name and photo of the Ukronazi war criminals. They can hand out the decks of cards to the troops to help identify and capture (or kill) the 52 most-wanted Ukronazi war criminals.
No, No, No! Please do not wish the demonic methods of the USA on Russian military. We may be relieved if evil is punished – but it is not entertainment and it is not a game.
cecile babe do not panic…they will be very politely put aside….
Hahaha – thank you Sejmon! I can fix le maquillage and relax…
Andriy Parubi, the “commander of Maidan”, should hold one of the aces of the deck.
Reliable, accurate and complete analysis of the situation. Thank you, Saker!
02/23/2022 23:46 (MSК). The head of the DPR Pushilin and the Head of the LPR Pasechnik sent letters to Russian President Putin asking for assistance in repelling aggression from Ukraine in order to avoid civilian casualties and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.
Now Putin has a legal document for deciding that the Russian army should conduct an operation against the fire points of the Ukronazis. It would be sooner already. It’s time to resolve this situation. That’s enough.
Saker: “So, in one way or another, I expect major combat action in the Eastern Ukraine in the next couple of days.”
Removed – please put in the MFC as Saker requested a few days ago. Thanks. Mod.
“So let’s see what Uncle Shmuel and his Eurorodents will do next.”
I think a major buildup in eastern Europe with more missiles and ground forces with more teeth. Russia will then be forced to respond beyond Ukraine, assuming this was not planned already.
p.s. – Love the reference to “colorful little pebbles”
think a major buildup in eastern Europe
It would take NATO MONTHS to achieve the force levels needed to attack Russia.
Like during Desert Shield.
And, unlike Saddam Hussein, Russia won’t let them if they try.
So no
No attack from NATO coming
@Saker
At Fox News Sullivan said “we are waiting to engage, if the need arises”, and UK defense minister reminded the Russian speaker woman of the English charge of 1853 ( I think ) in Crimea. NATO will be involved.
Meanwhile still at Fox News they were talking about selling LNG both to Germany and Ukraine, now that NS2 will “never” be allowed to function. And this will be a mean to cut inflection, they say.
Actually, if the venerable Andrei Martyanov is right (and he’s usually right on such matters), NATO can never achieve the force level, at least conventionally, necessary to attack Russia. And, of course, russians won’t wait and let them build up.
Just in: heads of DPR and LPR have formally asked for Russia’s help to counter Ukraine’s aggression. Buckle up.
You have used the term “Tabakis” and I was unable to find it explained on the internet. Could you explain its meaning and perhaps origin? Thanks!
Tabaqui was a male jackal that lived in the jungle.
https://junglebook.fandom.com/wiki/Tabaqui
Just to add. It was used by Putin last year:
“Let’s see what’s going on in real life. Like I said, they take it out on Russia, here and there for no reason. All little Tabaqui running around, like around Shere Khan and howling,” Putin said. “Everything is like in Kipling. To appease the sovereign,” he added, provoking applause in the hall. (April 20, 2021)
https://www.breakinglatest.news/world/putin-many-countries-against-russia-like-the-jackal-from-the-jungle-book-they-howl-around-the-tigers-retinue/
Andrei, what do you think about this?
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/02/23/germany-can-no-longer-be-put-down/
Germany has this power?
It’s originated from Tabaqui the jackal, one of the characters in The Jungle Book by Rudyard Kipling
/putin-rewrites-the-law-of-the-geopolitical-jungle/
It’s a spelling error, try Tabaqui instead and you will find it’s a Hyena in Rudyard Kipling’s Jungle Book.
It’s Shere Khan that is the problem.
Think Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, UK are hyenas, the US thinks it is the Tiger,
Is it possible for the Russians to “Takeover” the airwaves of Ukraine, and allow Putin to broadcast on every TV and radio station simultaneously? An appeal to the average Ukrainian not to die for Biden and NATO. That would have a devastating psychological affect.
LOL!
I like your idea :-)
it would be great to see the hysterics in the Rada (today was fun!)
Maybe that might be happening? Hal Turners updates (the last one) states
5:23 PM EST — In addition to Internet outage reported just a few minutes ago, information coming in now says TELEVISION is now also out in Donetsk. COMMS, all going down!
Maybe they are going down to be replaced?
from link: https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/en/news-page/world/u-s-issues-new-warning-to-ukrainian-gov-t-latest-intelligence-points-to-full-scale-attack-imminently-at-particular-risk-northeastern-city-of-kharkiv
Hallturner is paid conspiracy click and b + superchat, zero credibility.
exactly… ignore Turner and EVERYTHING he might say…
I, too, like Saker’s usage of “eurodents”….
While we’re at it….maybe instead of “Atlantacists”…….(which I like as well)……maybe go with “Atlantichrists?”
😉
Slovenian prime minister Janez Janša will visit Ukraine tommorow for two days. He will personally hand over Slovenian help worth 163 000€. Sleeping bags, diesel generators, gloves, rubber boots and medical face masks. He will meet prime minister and president amongst other. He will show strong support from Slovenia and condemn Russian actions. I’m certain that Russian leadership can’t sleep because of his strong support. Then he will return back home and will write a protest note if the Ukraine collapses. He will take two days from the government who has certainly a lot of work to do, than to host someone with rubber boots and covid masks. He is probably sent by Americans, because he congratulated Trump for second term and told Biden would be a weak president.
To my great sadness, Slovenia is just a US colony.
Colonial administrators for the US are all bought and paid for.
I expect nothing less or different from them.
Yes, you are right. Our defence minister was on a visit to Aviano (US airbase in Italy)last month. He was flown by a fighter jet by a commander of a base and was happy like a child. Normal Slovenians go to Gardaland (amusement park in Italy) to have fun, defence minister had fun in US base. The bill: another batch of Oshkosh armoured cars.
Let’s see now. How about two brigades of paratroopers, with artillery and armour, dropped in LDNR territory behind the LOC to pin the Ukies in place, followed by two armoured corps, one from north and one from south, racing around behind LOC. Ukies’ choice resolves to which direction to walk with hands up.
Obviously another cauldron coming up & why the US/Nato rats jumped ship a few weeks back.
Hopefully, this time the captured forces will be conscripted to work programes rebuilding the infrastructure they have destroyed over the last decade. I’ll be happy to never hear the work “Ukraine” again once this is over.
Germans really can’t be that stupid and sign their own demise and lose access to energy which is vital for their industry. There is some deal behind the scenes with Putin for sure. Must admit I haven’t seen such panic in west for long time, it is just pure joy to watch how things are unfolding. As much as I would want Russians to smash Ukie forces and maybe “remove” few Nato command centers, or even sink some asset in black sea, I would much rather see Kiev understand that it is game over and not spend thousands of lives for what can’t be changed. Bear is awake and not in good mood…
You underestimate the hard headedness of Germans.
I appreciate your optimism, but I see no way that the Anglo-Americans are just going to roll over and allow Russia to turn vast swathes of Ukraine into a DMZ or allow Ukraine to develop into a peaceful and prosperous independent state.
Ukraine is essential for the post-war dream of containing Russia and pushing Russia out of the Black Sea. They came ever so close to achieving this in 2014.
With Ukraine offering behind the lines access (so to speak) to Crimea and the Sea of Azov only the threat of a nuclear confrontation will prevent them from pouring into the Western and Southern parts of Ukraine under agreed RTP action.
The Anglo-Americans will do all in thier power to protect the Ukraines access to the Black Sea and it appears they are putting together a “trip wire” multinational expeditionary force (complete with ground attack helicopters and various missile systems) in the Baltics to be swiftly sent South once ready.
Note that the small numbers of the British, Canadian, US, and various EU military personnel should be seen in the context of being “place holders” and “trip wires” (for article 5) and not as a force to intimidate Russia, much less confront Russia.
Once this force is in place in the South of Ukraine – from Odessa to Mariupol – it will be very difficult for Russia to take any so called “disarmenent” action action against Ukraines Southern and Western regions without engaging “Western Peace Keeepers” (and many NATO members) and risking a wider conflict, or worse, triggering NATO article 5.
The UK, EU, and Canada have already depolyed a small light (so therefore fast moving) force to Poland and the US navy is on the move in the Med Sea as we speak. It would seem there is now a WW2 style “race to Berlin” – but this time with the race being to Odessa. Whoever arrives first will set the agenda in southern Ukraine for the forseeable future.
Please, do not understimate the Anglo-Americans. We are seeing a complex form of warfare competition taking place and there is no way, having got so close to Russia and control of the Black Sea (with Turkish help) that they are simply going to walk away – even it means half of the Ukrainian population have to perish whilst slowing the Russians down so that they can “protect” Ukraines freedom to access the Black Sea,
I see no way that the Anglo-Americans are just going to roll over and allow Russia to…..
Tell me, what are they going to do about it?
Seriously
What can they do?
my personal opinion: exactly *nothing*
Also, NATO forces are both pathetic and tiny.
It would take NATO many MONTHS to reach the needed force levels.
Look, they could not even control Kabul
You think they can control what Russia does?!?!?!
If NATO couldn’t do it before the recognition of the two republics then why would they be able to do anything now? The situation has only gotten worse.
FOX TV reportedly encouraged Russia to invade Poland and Baltics syaing USA would stil do nothing of importance in that case :-D
Bingo!
Kabul was a disgrace of a retreat, the worst in Afghan military history, and there are plenty to compare.
Poor little Joe is a disgrace as as Clown-in-Chief, can’t fight his way out of a paper bag. He’s working on his approval ratings, trying to keep the house in the mid term elections. Once they see the tsunami that will hit his rag-tag 404 “army,” he will do nothing but call for more “sanctions from hell” and more troops to Eurostan, at a safe distance from the Russian Tochka and flamethrowers.
Biden, Blinken, Stoltenberg, BoJo, Macron, Scholz, la Truss, la Baerbock, and the rest of the minions, will be foaming at the mouth like the rabid Russophobic dogs they are, but they will not dare to go against Russia. UK defense minister just threaten to take Crimea, how? With what? The idiots are just huffing and puffing, they can’t do anything else, paralyzed as they are in fear.
They can throw sanctions, at the most.
Long live LDNR!
Long live Russia!
Long live Zakharchenko, Givi, Motorola, et al!!!
Lone Wolf
Dear Lone Wolf,
I beg to differ; “The idiots are just huffing and puffing, they can’t do anything else, paralyzed as they are in fear.”
It is not fear, but rather sheer incompetence. I always thought that ‘Johnny English’ was farce. I must have been mistaken as it appears to be a training program for those minions.
One might also remind Cap’t Wallace that it was not the Scots Guards (1st in, last out) that held the ‘Thin red line’ but rather the 74th. He may remember ‘The Charge of the Light Brigade’, but I’m certain he has no knowledge of the ‘Charge of the Heavy Brigade’ against the Cossack cavalry.
Lords Sandwich and Cardigan against Shoigu? Now that is farce!
@ Andrew S MacGregor
Dear Andrew, I always appreciate your thoughtful comments, on this one, I agree to disagree. There is “sheer incompetence” in all of them, as a personal trait and a mindset, however, on an emotional level, they are in fear, and their fear is paralyzing them.
Just go back and look at la Truss presser with Lavrov, and her pretensions of “Iron Lady.” She was stiff, rigid, inflexible, responding like a machine, sticking to the script, she was in fear. Lavrov had already cut her head and showed to the world that it was empty, then the journos were making pressing questions she refused to address, repeating again and again the same baloney.
Sheer incompetence turned feer, now you see the combo.
Cheers,
Lone Wolf
And I really did appreciate Lavrov’s chess moves. How to defeat the opposition in three moves
Add Aleksey Mozgovoy to that illustrious list of fallen heroes!!!!
Saker,
It is like the US and NATO paid no attention to how the Russians have fought in Syria.
They think that if they can move the conflict to the Baltics and Kaliningrad, Russia will be restrained because there are 2,000,000 Russians in the Baltics and 500,000 in Kaliningrad.
They must think the Russians cannot defend and the West will establish control of the airspace.
As for Ukraine, all they hope for there (not victory) but a prolonged (longer than week or two) bloodletting.
By staying out of Ukraine, NATO and the US avoid ‘losing’.
It is in NATO’s own zone where they think Russia is less strong. The Baltic Sea zone seems to be their idea of a good place to take on Russia.
From what I’ve read, if Kaliningrad is attacked, Poland will no longer have Warsaw.
I haven’t seen what the cost of starting something at the Baltic border, but those F-35s sent there will be made scrap in minutes.
NATO has talked such a big game, it is more than likely they will do something very stupid.
How would they hold together if they don’t act? And Biden needs to show the MIC and neocons that he is strong.
The dissonance among the Khazarians and neocons is going to be massive. They never thought they could lose Ukraine.
“The dissonance among the Khazarians and neocons is going to be massive. They never thought they could lose Ukraine.”
And here we have it. The Khazars want to return home. Russia is the eternal enemy.
There may be a change in a-priori assumption, which seems to be that because NATO/AZE cannot prevail and would be liquidated – because of defeat – that we assume NATO/AZE actually desire to prevail. An alternate a-priori assumption that seems to fit the objective reality might be to assume NATO/AZE “the biden” desires defeat.
It may be plausible that internal and emerging realities inside “their Zone A” – dire economic and civil and public health difficulties are becoming so destabilizing that the ruling junta conceives that a defeat would “authorize” domestic control measure of the heaviest kind, I think we must remember that these ruling junta people are baldly insane, ignorant, ruthless, and have their backs to the wall inside their sphere – they’re surrounded by multitudes of their own subjects, er, citizens. They seem to be in the grasp of the gods of war, fear and panic, while their vice is becoming obvious even among the most credulous. I’m thinking MacBeth here…
I’m pretty sure that the proposition “all war is driven by domestic forces” is at least generally true.
Thanks Mr Saker! You’re Quite a fella.
Stop your fantasy, Europe is not going to be using any ‘forces’ to confront Russia. That is just out of the question. They will send supplies and lethal arms to Ukrops as always. No one said Russia actually thinks it will turn Ukraine into a “peaceful” zone, no one in Russia is stupid enough to think this is possible. But Russia and U.S. will carve Ukraine into half and half as always, as with everything. It’s always been this way since the beginning with West Germany / East Germany, and recently with Russian Syria and American Northeast Syria, etc.
I’m not sure where you are getting the Odessa thing from, Russia is not after Odessa and has no intention of conquering Odessa. It has clearly stated its intentions of protecting the DNR/LNR constitutional territories and that’s it. The U.S. can have Odessa, there is no real choice about that.
Nightvision,
Indeed, what a mad, mad night vision that would be to see Ukraine, our beloved sister nation, be divvied up, and half of it given to the Yanks. The yanks would turn it into a mile-long dope set like in Kensington, Philadelphia.
That’s right but there is no other choice. You have to take reality, realpolitik in war. In real war, realities are simply irrevocable. The U.S. already has Kiev and the west, there is nothing that can be done. Russia can only salvage what’s left and do the best it can. Putin nor Russia are ‘magical’ beings that can warp space-time or reality by way of fantastical ‘hope’, it’s just not how the real world works. We are happy to have had the victories we’ve already had, and the most important thing, the crown jewel of Crimea and Sevastapol has already been won.
Article 5 does not apply to NATO troops on non NATO territory.
And remember Putin’s promise to target decision centres.
And don’t forget all those ships in the Eastern Med within Zircon range of Russian forces in Syria.
One way or another, NATO will be irrelevant.
This plan has been years in the making, preparation is everything.
So to be clear, you’re referring to the same Americans that got ran out of Afghanistan and couldn’t stop an Iranian missile barrage they were given advanced notice about (and then ran away from that fight)? Umm, yeah. These would also be the same Americans defeated in North Korea and Vietnam, right? The ones who like to pick on weak states and bomb them into the stone ages?
They are about narratives and histrionics and emotions these days. That’s their fighting realm. They’re not much for picking on folks their own size. But yeah, by all means they can march to Odessa. I’d prefer they didn’t waste any more of my tax dollars on shit that doesn’t benefit me or any other American at all, but if they really want to get their assess handed to them again, go for it.
But you might want to get yourself up to date on Russian capabilities. Why just today I saw another US military expert claim Russian naval ships in the Mediterranean were armed with 70s era Soviet missiles. So if you think that’s what is going up against the US Navy, why yes, I can see how you’d claim not to underestimate the US’s circa 90s technology.
Russia has been exchanging energy for security. If the Europeans do not like it, they can have insecurity and energy at twice the price.
Security is mutual and indivisible. Russian tanks in Uzhhorod should make this clear to every European.
«Забери нас домой, Родина!» / ‘Take us home, Motherland!’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHrSame6B98
The Ukrainian troops still decided to commit collective suicide and went on the attack along the entire line of contact. As Klitschko said the day before yesterday at a meeting of the Kiev City Hall – let’s throw a minute of silence to everyone who is defending Ukraine now.
I certainly did not expect this. Well, to my simplistic mind, the ridiculous genocide comment looks like the rhetorical the last straw and the Russians finally accepted that there was no point trying to negotiate with the europeans and that unilateral action is indeed the only way to achieve Russia’s security objectives. I suspect that what Andrei is simply not believable to the west. Its like there are two divergent narratives and only outright confrontation can synthesis those two divergent narratives. (To be honest its such a qualitative change in tempo, i cant quite believe it).
While not directly relevant to Donbass, I cannot help but wonder a not-amused Moscow observing the self-reports of use of FUKUS microwave weapons on its own civilian citizens during non-violent, peaceful protests in Australia and criminalization and violent responses to peaceful protests against GMO-jab passports in Ottawa as contributing sentiments of the “walks like a duck, talks like a duck” categorical evidence.
“If the US/NATO/EU had any brains, they would quickly accept the total and final loss of the LDNR”. I tell you they have brains. But they are mean-hearted and don’t care for anyone but themselves. They are all running away from Ukraine, leaving the Ukrainians, I mean the subjugated civilian population, to bear the brunt of their irresponsible actions.
I understand why many people are getting impatient that Russia has not moved in militarily to stop the shelling and firing still going on in the Donbass. But I think even at this critical time, President Putin and the entire Russian government are still hoping that unnecessary conflagration could be avoided.
Sadly, as you rightly say, I think the congflagration is now inevitable. I’m sure the “White Helmets” style of propaganda is ready to go, with staged videos and photos of “Ukrainian children and women being massacred”. Unfortunately the Russian State mass media is abysmal. RT and Sputnik are sometimes worse than BBC and the Guardian. And in this information age, even with Russia’s legitimate moves, if there are no well- funded media to tell the Russian side of the story unambiguously, it would be difficult to truly win this battle.
I just hope that Russia finds a way to make the US also feel some real pain because of this. Russia is in it for a long ride.
I neither envy Russia nor the West at this point. Only China stands ready to win massively from this situation.
“They cannot simply retreat, there is no way Ze can order that and not be overthrown”.
I don’t see that the second part of that sentence necessarily implies the first part. If I were a Ukrainian soldier, I wouldn’t give a rodent’s rear whether Ze is overthrown – or, for that matter, what else happens to him.
If the Russian armed forces told me to get out, I would get out. Fast. If anyone tried to stop me, I would shoot them.
I agree with this. I think it’s survivable politically for Zelensky. He can always blame NATO…
Greetings from Canada
Home of our very own Peace River Nazi.
Someone posted something on Telegram saying that the Ukraine never registered their land borders with the
UN since 1991. So they have no territorial integrity and Russia being the inheritor of the defunct USSR’s responsibilities is somehow responsible for the Ukraine.
I may not be explaining this very well but I am sure you can Straighten me out. Spaciba
I admit that I have never understood how a bunch of ambitious, opportunistic politicians in Kiev could take advantage of the dissolution of the USSR to declare Ukraine and independent nation and themselves its rulers.
No country ever recognized Ukrainian independence. I am not sure if any country even would have.
Ukrainian independence was Stalin’s folly. The Soviet Union wanted to have more seats at the UN General Assembly, as there was a far larger number of Western member states. The solution was to make Ukraine and Belorussia UN members. As Ukraine was already a UN member in 1991, it did not need to ask anyone for recognition.
It’s great to finally see Russia proactive.
A real eye opener was the vitriol coming not from butthurt Boris & Co, but also from Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland. Trust me that bitch ain’t speaking for the Scots on this matter.
Looking forward to seeing Putin deliver daily hammer blows to these American & Euro clowns. They are truly disgusting, couldn’t care less for Nazis terrorising Donbass for 8 long years.
All of us here have suffered with them and I want my pound of flesh, am sorry to say. Cleanse that Nazi vipers nest.
Nicola has said before that the SNP’s foreign policy isn’t much different to the UK’s. She and Stewart McDonald wanted Britain to stay in Afghanistan. It’s a different beast to when Salmond was in control when there was an element of anti imperialism.
I have something here for the German audience – a documentary movie made 2014 by a German journalist & reporter who was embedded with the forces of the Donbass militia.
Very impressing …. Gives a lot of background …..
https://nuoflix.de/ukrainian-agony–der-verschwiegene-krieg
I was not able to find a English synchronized version on the net …. Sorry for that but maybe the one of you or the other is more successful as I was.
Really a good movie. I will never forget this time. And I guess we all will never forget where we were when Putin reckognized LDNR :)
Ok, so what brave soul is out getting those Russian bear pictures. I’m sure he is using a telephoto but still…
I got my popcorn.
https://youtu.be/QkrzvRaJvew
I guess you’d enjoy this then.
Good analysis. My only quibble is semantics, specifically suppositions that Biden has any kind of power. In reality he is even more of a puppet than Zelensky and likely does not even have the capacity to dress himself in the morning.
Substituting ‘US’ for ‘Biden’ is I think more accurate and references the actual power structure (deep state) in the US.
You are wrong (((According to our information, Biden, despite his ostentatious infirmity, is one of the leading sane politicians in the US military-political leadership.
You can see it by how quickly he pushed Blinkin, Sullivan, … no, he’s not a puppet at all.
It’s just that the position in which Russia brought him is called zugzwang or gote (Weiqi / Guo). From which there is not a single Kami no Itte/Divine move. )))
This mammoth of the old school is smart and cunning in moments of enlightenment.
I wonder with what losses he will bring the Democrats to the congressional elections. I hope with the maximum. )))
The National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine decided on the state of emergency in Ukraine
https://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnaya-panorama/13818229
Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov noted that the state of emergency in Ukraine will be introduced for 30 days and can be extended by presidential decree
KIEV, February 23. /TASS/. The National Security and Defense Council (NSDC) of Ukraine decided at its meeting to introduce a state of emergency throughout Ukraine, except for the Donetsk and Lugansk regions, but the final decision must be approved by the Verkhovna Rada within 48 hours. This was announced on Wednesday by NSDC Secretary Alexei Danilov.
“We discussed the introduction of a state of emergency throughout Ukraine, except for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” he said at a briefing following the meeting. “The decision of the National Security and Defense Council [on the introduction of the state of emergency] has been made,” he said, but specified that the Rada would still support him within 48 hours.
According to the Secretary of the Security Council, the state of emergency will not radically affect the lives of citizens. He assumes that the regional commissions, which will include representatives of the central and local authorities, will make decisions on certain restrictions, depending on the situation. The Secretary clarified that this could be an enhanced regime for protecting public order, restricting traffic, inspecting vehicles, checking documents from citizens. “These are issues that are preventive, so that peace remains in the country, the economy works,” he explained.
In Ukraine, it is also possible to impose a curfew. “A curfew can be introduced in the regions if there is such a need. This is by decision of the local headquarters,” Danilov said.
The state of emergency will be introduced for 30 days in accordance with applicable law. At the same time, the Secretary of the Security Council recalled that the president has the right to extend it for another month. “But in the first and second cases, it is necessary that the decision be approved by the Rada,” Danilov said.
On martial law and mobilization
The Secretary of the Security Council said that Ukraine would introduce martial law in the event of an invasion of its territory. “We are constantly being threatened by an invasion, but we are clearly aware of all the processes that are taking place on our borders with the Russian Federation, in Belarus, where the exercises are taking place,” he stressed. “In the event of an invasion of the territory of our country, martial law will be immediately introduced.”
Danilov announced the readiness of the Ukrainian military to fight back in the event of a possible attack on the capital. “In the event of an attack on Kiev, a rebuff will be given immediately. We understand the risks posed by the Russian Federation. We clearly understand that our troops are ready to fight back. It does not matter which city may be attacked,” he said.
“There is no decision on mobilization in Ukraine today, if necessary, it will be taken,” he said. According to Danilov, so far, in accordance with the presidential decree, reservists are being called up. “Today their number will be 36,000. These are people who in the vast majority have gone through the front and understand what is at stake,” he concluded.
Moscow’s position
Recently, in Western countries, as well as in Kiev, there have been statements about a possible Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory. Moscow has repeatedly called such information empty and baseless escalation of tension. The Kremlin emphasized that Russia poses no threat to anyone.
For your information, on February 27, a referendum on amendments to the Constitution will be held in Belarus.
If war really breaks out, the Anglozio might achieve their goal and sever all ties between Russia and Europe, such as NS1. And Europe can’t survive as an advanced civilization without Russian resources. The US will fully exploit that and squeeze Europe like a lemon. I should probably accelerate the study of the Russian language.
Who’s running the show ???
The NEOCONS, for sentimental reasons, want full ownership of the territory that was once known as the Pale of Settlement. Regardless of NATO, Congress, Parliament, Boris or Biden, they are prepared to fight to the last
young man or young women from Belarus, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Ukraine, Poland, and Russia to achieve that aim.
“So, a few people must die, stop being such a Meshuggeneh!”
The Western media is falsely claiming that Russian troops have already entered Donbass. This is not true.
On the night after February 21st there was video of column of light armor and some tanks moving toward Donetsk. Some Russian Telegram channels falsely labeled these as “Russian troops.” They are not.
Some years ago the Ukrainian SBU published graphics showing that the Novorossiyan Armed Forces had 500 main battle tanks and over one thousand pieces of light armor. (Actually this was data from Lost Armour.) The Minsk agreement confined these thanks to a “polygon” over 50 km from the front lines. It is these tanks that are now moving. Most of these tanks are trophies from the 2014-2015 war (the T-64s). Some came from Russia (the T-72s).
Reuters reports:
This is a new development. For the last 7 years there have been no tanks in Donetsk, except for the annual Victory Day parades.
Notation
Z and K – Zet and Kalaid, winged (airmobile) sons of the god “North Wind” (Borea).
Z and K in a geometric figure:
△ – brigades
□ – shelves
◯ – separate battalions
– trapeze separate companies
I thought Z meant they are coming after Ze.
In the troops, the version of “Zaebali” is more common (obscene vocabulary, in the networks they write – “Z@ebali”, far reminiscent of “Fucked up!”))).
And “Nord” (not to be confused with Zyd))).
“Война – путь обмана”, Сунь-цзы
the most lasting and devastating consequence for the usa and nato from the coming confrontation is going to be the profound loss of face for washington.
it may not rival the persian capture of emperor valerian in battle (reputedly used by the persian king as a foot stool to mount his horse and later stuffed as a trophy) but then how bad does it have to be to go from exceptional hegemonic power to laughing stock within a decade among zone b and the critical thinking in zone a?
“You don’t have to do this Joe”
Obama overheard telling Brandon at the primaries.
This memory keeps coming back to me.
It may be a little more than “loss of face” when the dust settles. As the Saker says, the Bear has awoken, and I think this is part of a bigger plan. I see the key battlefront to be the economic one – no less than dethroning the dollar.
China is part of this. They are constraining critical supplies and tightening supply chains. In the era of loose money and increased demand this is pushing up inflation; and central banks can’t raise interest rates because of public debt. China will carefully calibrate this.
Second: Russia is a strategic resource supplier, not just in energy. But in energy alone it has the West (incl US) by the balls. Gazprom is currently fulfilling long term contracts but not feeding the spot market (upon which Europe depends). This pushes up energy prices, and the US is vulnerable being a net importer with Russia its second largest supplier. Again, the dial can be carefully turned.
Unconfirmed reports of radio jamming in Donbass coming in. Mobile network down in Donetsk. Flight operations suspended at Kharkov and Dnieper airports (though reason is unclear).
If thats true, that means the Russians move in…
The reports are quite confirmed, from dozens of sources. It is true.
Look forward to the Moscow Show Trials. Now here’s where America makes her money, Pay-Per-View, I hope Russia beams this worldwide. The Germans/Europeans/Americans & British can watch and learn who the new kids on the block are.
Eurorodents – thank you for yet another gem.
I disagree on one important point – the Baltic state are very relevant. Any NATO missiles there can reach St Petersburg in minutes. They have to be neutralized and demilitarized for Russian security. First Ukraine, then the Baltics, then the Black Sea. I’m guessing that’s the game plan for Russian action.
Are you seriously?! The Baltic theater of military operations (TVD) has never been seriously considered by the General Staff of Russia – this is the same training ground as the Black Sea and, in general, European TMO.
Destruction, the defeat of which is calculated from 10 to 20 minutes (but this is in the elite version, if it is simpler, more humane, then longer))).
You simply do not know the combat power of Russia, unlike the United States.
In short, all [Euro]-NATO members should get ready observe the growth of plant roots from the “bottom” position.
Thanks for this Saker…and wow!
3 things really surprise me about this situation
1. How quickly Russia followed up their recognition with the ultimatum for Ukrainian troops to leave. (It really is a one-two!)
2. The utterly clueless reaction by Ukraine and the West.
3.The reaction of the commodities markets…esp agricultural.
Interesting times for sure.
Keep an eye and ear on Patrushev’s visit to Belgrade, I think a counter color revolution is in the cards.
“In fact, the US has announced that there will be no Putin Biden meeting and no Lavrov Blinken meeting either. I am sure that both Putin and Lavrov are sobbing in abject fear and total despair”
this was a request by Biden via Macron anyway. I don’t know whether Puitn accepted it or not, although Russian policy is always keep the door open. No loss there. The West has nothing to say, they are still in a state of demented shock.
NATO/UK/US – all the same thing – already lost. They ran away from the battlefield and left the Ukies on their own. When Boris Johnson proclaimed he stood behind the Ukraines he really meant it – 900 miles behind them. Ukies now know (just like Saakashvili and poor Georgia) what it is to be western allie. I can’t see how the west can save face, as Saker says maybe some gallant ‘thrust’ into the stump Ukraine left over. By arrangement with the Russians of course.
I’ve been thinking about the military-technical plans…
One step that got stuck in my mind, not for now but several steps ahead, is this,
Russia declares war on every single NATO country individually. And does nothing about it afterwards. No attacks, no nothing. Putin has every right to strike everywhere he wants in a time of his choosing.
Sure, we will have lots of declarations of unity but if every country is allowed to make its own “secret” peace treaty negotiations. We could have a nice strike at NATO unity.
It all depends on the previous steps though and I don’t know what they are. But it has to be a nice stick to guide them to a nice peace treaty carrot.
You are very correct.
Russia is really splitting the unity of NATO,
offering A new security system (without the US), in which Russia is at least not an enemy.
As a maximum – the defender, the guarantor of security and sovereignty. )))
Ukraine is appealing tot he UN, for help.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550399-military-help-appeal-meeting/
Sorry for being a grammar nutzi on such a important article😳
“If the US wants to Poles to oppress the Urkonazis in their own western Ukraine, nobody in Russia will care”
I read it as “the us wants The poles” but noticed that was not written that way..
Russia closes airspace near Ukrainian border to civilian flights (NOTAM)
Please provide links to your comments. Mod.
Note: I’m *not* saying any of this is true. This is just what the site is reporting (much of it US propaganda, so YMMV).
Russia Just Warned All Aircraft To Avoid Huge Swath Of Airspace Over Eastern Ukraine (Updated)
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44429/80-of-russian-troops-surrounding-ukraine-are-poised-to-attack-u-s-officials-say
Quote:
Kyiv-based @hwag_ucmc says Russia has already started its psy-ops against Ukrainian soldiers as part of the ongoing escalation by sending out text messages with threats to the phones of the servicemen of the Ukrainian army’s 53rd and 54th brigades. More actions can be expected: pic.twitter.com/aKWL6UbnDz
— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) February 23, 2022
Ukraine’s 53rd brigade “has also received this” – @3PQKn3D4A2k4gvm
The text reads, “Ukrainian military servicemen! The Russian army is already in Donetsk and Luhansk. Return home while it isn’t late!” pic.twitter.com/LtdgfKP3rE
— English Lugansk (@loogunda) February 23, 2022
Update 6:40 PM EST:
Russia has issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) that effectively closes the airspace virtually all of its border with northeastern Ukraine to all civilian air traffic. This NOTAM is currently in place through May 18. This is an extremely worrisome sign that a major military operation may be imminent.
Bad sign pic.twitter.com/cU0OE1DGog
— 🅻-🆃🅴🅰🅼 (@L_Team10) February 23, 2022
#Russia has closed the airspace along the northeast Ukrainian border for civil aviation according to #NOTAM (Notice to Airmen). #UkraineCrisis https://t.co/uezDbPKCUg pic.twitter.com/cUxmJyMAEo
— Donald Standeford (@Don_Standeford) February 23, 2022
For aviators and anyone else watching Russia/Ukraine: NOTAMs issued closing UKDD Dniepro airport in Ukraine beginning 24 Feb 0000Z for 14 days.
I’ve never seen a TRIGGER NOTAM in real life. pic.twitter.com/7CKPSv7F8m
— Tarah M. Wheeler (@tarah) February 23, 2022
Saker you are quite an analyst. Thank you for your service.
“The Ukraine must be demilitarized and declared neutral.”
Music to my ears. I’ve long said here and elsewhere that Russia should invade Ukraine, overthrow the Kiev regime, wipe out the Nazi battalions, and especially *disarm the Ukraine military entirely*. And then go home. No “nation-building” nonsense. So I’m very happy to see Putin acknowledge that necessity.
This won’t be a long war, as some are predicting, because Russia isn’t going to spend more on this war than they can afford – unlike the US, which needs wars to last forever so the MIC can profit from them.
You know history horribly !
Russia never INVADEs (yes the moderator will forgive me for lowercase) and has never i”nvaded” !!
And will never “intrude” anywhere !!!
Russia defends and defends !!!!!
Then it reaches Paris, Helsingfors (Helsinki), twice Berlin, three times Warsaw, Erzurum, Tavriaz, …
Never said it did. I just said it should. :-)
If there is further escalation of the fighting in the Donbass region, you can be sure that the Anglo Americans will be celebrating and snickering up their sleeves.
Their hysterical media disinformation warning of an “imminent Russian invasion” (for the past few months no less) gives their game away, as they doth protest too much.
Behind all their crocodile tears and phony antiwar proclamations, the Anglo Americans have been methodically working to foment and provoke the very same “Russian invasion,” which they claim they adamantly oppose.
Why?
The stakes go well beyond the Donbass republics, Ukraine, or even Russia.
The ultimate stake for the Anglo-Americans is: sabotaging Eurasian integration.
Alastair Crooke explains:
“In play, therefore, are key decisions that will define Europe for the future. On the one hand, (as Pepe Escobar noted some two years ago), “the goal of Russian and Chinese policy is to recruit Germany into a triple alliance locking together the Eurasian land mass à la Mackinder into the greatest geopolitical alliance in history – switching world power in favour of these three great powers, and against Anglo-Saxon sea power”.
And on the other hand, NATO was conceived, from the outset, as a means of Anglo-American control over Europe and more precisely for keeping Germany ‘down’, and Russia ‘out’ (in that old axiom of western strategists). Lord Hastings (Lionel Ismay), NATO’s first Secretary General, famously said that NATO was created to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”.
This mindset lingers on, but the formula has acquired today a greater import, and a new twist: To keep Germany ‘down and price uncompetitive’ versus U.S. goods; to keep Russia ‘out’ from being Europe’s source of cheap energy; and to keep China ‘fenced out’ from EU–U.S. trade. The aim is to contain Europe firmly within America’s narrowly defined economic orbit and compelled to forgo the benefits of Chinese and Russian technology, finance and trade – thus helping towards achieving the aim of barricading China within its borders.”
Nord Stream: The Geo-politics of Keeping Germany ‘Down’, Russia ‘Out’, and Instability in Ukraine
https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2022/02/14/nord-stream-geopolitics-of-keeping-germany-down-russia-out-and-instability-ukraine/
The Ukraine conflict is merely a tool to prevent the continental Europeans from increasing connectivity with the Eurasian system (led by Russia and China, as well as Iran) and thus to remain subordinate to the Anglo American sea powers.
This has been a fundamental driver of Anglo American geostrategy since Brits like Halford Mackinder (mentioned above) to Americans like Nicholas Spykman and Zbigniew Brezinski.
In short, this is Anglo-American Divide and Conquer, yet again.
America’s real adversaries are its European and other allies: The U.S. aim is to keep them from trading with China and Russia
/americas-real-adversaries-are-its-european-and-other-allies-the-u-s-aim-is-to-keep-them-from-trading-with-china-and-russia/
The Ukraine is a microcosm of the EU – each has in effect abdicated sovereignty and all agency, willingly placing itself in the position of having to choose between having to obey US dictates or aligning itself with Russia and eventually a broader Eurasian power bloc.
In the Ukraine’s case the US forced the most extreme break-up scenario by installing its puppet regime in Kiev and using aggression to force the secession of the Donbass, leaving the rump Ukraine utterly dependent upon the US.
Europe as a whole, if it really wants to keep the EU structure, still has the option to make its own choice, though here too the US is increasingly forcing the issue.
Since it’s unlikely the EU can recover its own will and agency, if it ever had any, the result is likely to be a break-up similar to that of the Ukraine but on a much bigger scale – the EU will break up with each country having to decide which bloc to align itself with, the collapsing US empire or the rising Eurasian bloc.
Since the countries of eastern Europe are naturally socioeconomically far more integrated with Russia, they naturally would align with Russia, and the Russians must ensure this for their own security needs.
But the US and the puppet regimes it has installed in several countries will never willingly subside, there will be flash points up and down eastern Europe, each far more volatile than the Donbass LOC and with much greater destructive weaponry on the agenda, any of which could become the WWIII trigger point.
Zero Hedge just posted that Russia has closed air space in north east Uke,.or I think LDNR. Can anybody confirm.
I was just on Zerohedge and there is no such posting. For the Sea of Azov, a few days ago, Russia gave a NOTAM that closes off basically all of the Sea for exercises, until Jan. 26, IIRC.
Saker: When do you think will Russian airpower will be used? Not just to take out weapons and troops firing artillery rounds into the eastern Donbass, but to conduct threatening overflights to strike terror and break the morale of Ukraine regime troops? Or will Putin avoid using air power e.g. for fear of a plane being shot down and a pilot captured?
Can Russia get away with occupying everything east of the line of control? It already has. Can It get away with taking all of Donetsk and Lugansk? Probably. How about everything east of the Dnieper from Kharkiv to Odessa? Very much a maybe. But Putin mentioned Odessa in his speech. Such an offensive would land-lock Western Ukraine.
All of Ukraine? Why would Russia want the trouble that even trying to control western Ukraine. The vast distances alone would mean many times the forces being utilized now. It would be troublesome and expensive. If it tries combat inside major cities it will have learned nothing from the Chechen wars.
As to the cutting of diplomatic relations, that would mean a new cold war, which won’t work out for Russia any better than it did the Soviet union. The west never runs out of money, and it can print as much as it wants.
And if the west decides to help Ukraine militarily at some point, the first target will be the Russian Air Force, which it will easily dominate. Then all of the Russian forces command/control/and logistics hubs can be reduced to nothing by long range missile attacks. All of this would be legal as long as Russia is not targeted on it’s own soil.
And if Russia retaliated against a NATO member on NATO territory, the eventuality is that every Russian unit in Ukraine would be destroyed.
But judging by the free use of anti-Jewish slurs, I don’t think this has much to do with defeating Fascism/Nazism. That’s just a big fat moral red herring dropped in the name of pro Russian propaganda.
Hey Steve, did you just take a break from the Pentagon to post here?
Sorry, but neither the US nor NATO will target Russian troops in Ukraine and if they did it would result in immediate retaliatory strikes on US and NATO command bases & HQ’s using hypersonic missiles, with the very real risk of global thermonuclear war following afterwards. Well, in that case all of modern-day civilization can kiss its ass good-bye.
There are no winners of this war and everyone knows it. That is why the US and NATO will fight Russia down to the last Ukrainian, and it’s why Biden keeps saying that he has absolutely no intentions to send US troops into Ukraine.
Now what I’m worried about is what comes after Biden, because if we get another Democrat president, or god forbid Hillary, then for sure we will be dealing with people crazy enough to start a direct hot war with Russia.
God help us all.
The political forces in the west would manipulate public opinion into supporting military action. The media and the military industrial complex would be hind them. Their view would be that they aren’t starting a war with Russia, they are fighting a defensive action in Ukraine to prevent a humanitarian crisis. Sort of the same predicate Putin used to go into the Donbas. I doubt Putin is wiling to resort to nukes over Ukraine. I think he’s hoping the threats will be enough to get much of what he wants The open question is what is it?
The question is whether war in Europe spills over to Asia. Russia and China for all its intents and purposes are in alliance. This thing is not just US and its vassals vs RF. There is a large Russian naval base in Kamchatka peninsular with Borei class subs and all. China already has the largest number of warships in the world. What if Russia and China make a move there in the Pacific? This thing is not that simple.
Or maybe another Bush or two for party makes little difference to the MIC.
It is almost as if Putin is following my plan to the letter. I wrote this on April 20, 2021, the day before Putin’s annual address to Russia’s Federal Assembly.
Ukraine is about the Petrodollar, nothing else. Saddam threatened to sell Iraqi oil in Euro’s = war. Gaddafi was going to sell Libyan oil in a new gold based Dinar = war. In 1914 Germany was about to commence work on a Turkey-German railroad that would have threatened the hegemony of the East India Trading Company = war. Mossadegh nationalised Iranian oilfields = war. Always follow the money.
If Nord Stream 2 goes ahead the Petrodollar mechanism will collapse – maybe not right away, but it will be the catalyst for a global bond market collapse. This will be good for Klaus Schwab’s Great Reset, maybe that’s the plan?
In my opinion, you overestimate the dollar peg in the calculation for
oil. )))
The main thing in this scheme is the trade military-political operation “Sale of Death”, if figuratively.
That is, the US military-industrial complex, which needs permanent wars, terrorism, coups, revolutions, massacres – military and armed conflicts, “military struggle” of everyone against everyone.
And the United States, having a huge military potential, forcing the world to buy their weapons, military and special military equipment are (was))) the most stable economy. From that and all the subsidiaries of the US Central Bank – the Central Banks of States buy US government debt thus paying the public debt of the USA …
and allowing the Fed to uncontrollably print greenery.
But the wind of change – the “Northern Wind” – has already blown and is gaining strength.
NS-2 will definitely go when it becomes profitable and necessary for Russia.
You may not know, but we can launch it at any time – the penalty is negligible compared to the profit from the supply/sale of “green” CH4+. )))
Personally I don’t think Ukraine/NS2 is about the petrodollar whatsoever, they don’t care about that because they have their infinite printing press at the federal reserve, newly revitalized with Modern Monetary Theory absurdity. What it is all about is more geopolitical rather than geo-economical. It is simply all about preventing the growing partnership/alliance between Russia/Europe (Germany in particular). They don’t really care about the economic SPECIFICS like NS2, it’s more about the general shifting of the paradigm and spheres of influence with Russia/Germany thawing their relations and becoming increasingly closer and friendlier. The Zio-antlanticist Empire cannot allow normal German citizens to have the veil removed from their eyes regarding Russia as an “evil” barbarian entity. Once that veil is pulled down, the entire game is over for the U.S. and Zio-atlanticist Empire.
Andrei
Maybe OT, hope not. Would it be possible to extend an invitation to the young lady writer in the LDNR, Faina, to pen her reactions to the recent momentous events in the Donbas?
Tks for your great coverage. Where I live, we would be pretty much in the dark without it.
Fear dear Saker accusations of pedophilia! )))
This “honored” Lugansk “writer”, “essayist”, “playwright” and “just” “member” of the Writers’ Union of the LPR is only 14 years old. )))
Wrong – 13 !!!
)))
Are you trying to make some sort of pathetic joke about the dangers of middle-aged men offering encouragement to the aspirations of teen-age ladies? And, with all your tedious quotation marks, are you also insinuating that a thirteen-year-old cannot possibly be considered to be honored, a writer, an essayist, a playwright, just and a member of a union? What precisely are you trying to say here? I invite you to enlighten us, but in plain English please.
The sanction madness continues – EU and US going crazy:
https://sputniknews.com/20220223/russian-defence-minister-foreign-ministry-spokeswoman-put-on-eu-sanction-list–1093315529.html
“..Russian Defence Minister, Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Put on EU Sanction List….”
https://www.rt.com/russia/550400-eu-sanctions-shoigu-ministers/
and
https://sputniknews.com/20220223/biden-order-sanctions-against-nord-stream-2-ag-corporate-officers-1093311307.html
“…Biden Orders Sanctions Against Nord Stream 2 AG, Corporate Officers….”
and Zelensky – having said he wants to break off relations with Russia now wants to meet in various formats:
https://sputniknews.com/20220223/zelensky-ukraine-ready-for-talks-with-russia-in-various-formats-1093315314.html
and Israel attacks Damascus whilst all this goes on……
From the last article:
He asserted that Ukraine does not and will not pose a threat to Russia and that it does not want any type of war with Moscow, including a cold or “hot” war, or a hybrid war.
But in the last few days they were threatening to (try to) obtain nuclear weapons. Do they think Russia is going to forget that? Once you make that kind of threat, it can’t be forgotten.
If somehow some form of “Ukraine” still exists I’d add two more demands to that list. That Ukraine de-nazify and give her minorities the right to use their own language. That would be a big help to the Russian,and Hungarian,Rusin,and Romanian minorities in Ukraine.
Blinkton wants to take it too the limit, these people are in serious denial of the actual and not perceived facts.
Tip of the day: Boycott the draft.
Interestingly western media makes no mention of any of these realities. No analysis speaks of ukie leaving the regions. I gather they are still holding onto last weeks talking points until a new brief is issued. I guess this is where invasion etc gets validated. Again heavily censored comments if you go against the zog narrative. Ive even seen leftist rags dismmissing the nazi elements as somehow irrelevant of criticism
western media? i just heard a phd “especialist” in external relations, all propaganda.
for him, russia is the agressor, and putin is lying, amongst other because he says he wants to denazify ukraine. and everyone nows the president is a jew.
so great especialist never heard of azov batalion?
he was lying, and projecting that into his enemy.
thats what youll get of current western media.
US just declared war on RF.
quote ”We are ready at the press of a button to take action against the two largest financial institutions in Russia”, spokesperson of the US Department of State Ned Price noted
Together these are institutions that hold three quarters of a trillion dollars in assets, $750 bln in assets, half of the total Russian banking system,” he said, without naming such institutions.
“There are other measures and moves we have in store and that are ready if Russia continues with this invasion, including export controls, targeted sanctions against oligarchs and elites and other measures,” Price added.
Only first stike on D C will calm them down forever now, idem on city of london
Masters in Tel Aviv(real organizers behind this) are fully silent…
Eurocrats dare to sanction Shoigu and many others, I’m sorry but this a declaration of war.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550400-eu-sanctions-shoigu-ministers/
They will double down even if they are destroyed, these crazies live in a parralel universe, only the fear of their
life will do now…losing their wealth. Nothing else.
Should have happended from RF, much earlier.
There is nothing to negociate with neocons except their capitulation.
One weapon left for RF: declaration of war on nato, which will immediately collapse the western financial
system…then
In a few hours or even less you will see them suddenly change their behaviour.
Not doing so will lead to RF collapse.
And I would not count too much on the Chinese at all.
Their statements since monday are very…neutral, but real zero support for RF.
China trade exports( 75%) are with the EU/UK/AUS/US..they will not sacrifice that, by no mean.
Suddenly the famous JCPOA Iran deal is almost ready, sanctions will go, Iran will be ready to offer oil and gas
to EU, what a coincidence?…I would no be surprised if a formidable U Turn with Venezuela follow next.
They decided to destroy RF at any price. This is the project and the goal of their life, a ‘mission’ for the neocons
zios.
They never accepted Syria lost, they will never accept it.
Assad is next
These people are 100 % insane, they have no limit, even if millions must die, who cares?
You can’t even imagine how many people/citizens in the western sphere (australia, canada, UK, U.S.) are waiting for some big event to weaken their governments so they can storm the streets and overthrown the entire corrupt system. U.S./NATO are playing a very dangerous game and are teetering very close to the edge of committing suicide for themselves because the slightest misstep will see their destruction. Their own citizenry hates them and is ready to overthrow them violently at any moment when opportunity presents itself.
I’m one of them including a lot of our gillets jaunes friends.
“They will double down even if they are destroyed, these crazies live in a parralel universe,…”
Of course, they are a cult.
Study the Jones Town KoolAid trip.
Or, for a deeper history, Norman Cohn’s “The Pursuit of the Millennium: Revolutionary Millenarians and Mystical Anarchists of the Middle Ages” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pursuit_of_the_Millennium
Same dynamics at work.
…one pebble (with “ridiculous genocide claim” written on it) landed right on the eyelid of the bear and that *really* pissed the bear off…
Yes but more than that I think that statement alarmed Putin. Putin had already stated what he thought about the Ukrainian aggression (genocide) on Russians during his presser with Scholz in Moscow. Fair to say that Putin — who has been described as being calculating and who’d spent years running KGB operations in East Germany — knows the German mind pretty well and concluded that something had to be done to protect the people in LDNR since Germany — and France, also in the N4 — were unable or unwilling to stop Ukraine from assaulting the Donbass.
The recognition of the LDNR republics is the most significant step RF has taken against Western interests in a long time; well, after Syria at any rate. It is something that is not easily reversible, raises the RF-US ‘confrontation’ a notch, sets new baselines for future; the game has changed fundamentally. RF is in it for the long-term — the treaties signed with LDNR allows for RF bases in those republics and, as is well known, VVP has been given the go-ahead to deploy RF combat forces abroad.
The RF ultimatum to the Ukraine is something that the Ukrainians can’t just swat away, especially not when only ‘supported’ by the mosquito force that Nato has assembled on its territory and surrounding countries. If the Ukraine is smart and sees what is good for its survival as as state, it should start forthwith with Item 1 (Crimea) and Item 3 of the RF ultimatum, a sort of Minsk ver3.0: start negotiating with the LDNR republics for a settlement.
Armageddon of US dollar approaching.
Ukraine crisis has been a permanent media headline for several months. Biden administration has held nonstop ringing of alarm bells by launching day after day slogans like “imminent Russian invasion” based on unverified US intelligence. Western mainstream media has come along with this intense war mongering. Perhaps some of the readers have been pondering, what is this all about.
On my website, there is the text, which seems to be true, more than ever.
“Welcome to explore the fascinating world of Great Powers. You learn to realize that many things are not what they look like.”
When studying in deeper than just the surface of the present situation, it is possible to understand the particular distress, even the panic, in the US administration. NATO and the EU, not comprehending the essential matter, are enthusiastically messing around with the US.
Regarding the desperation of the US, the real question is neither Ukraine nor even the security arrangement of Europe but simply said the status of dollar and firmly attached to that, the status of the US as a great power. Not less is in question. That’s why the US is also so vehemently opposing Nord Stream 2 pipeline, because in that gas business, euro would be used instead of dollar.
The study below analyzes the whole process (dollar’s status and de-dollarization) ending on future options.
https://katehon.com/en/article/armageddon-us-dollar-approaching
Disagree. Do not believe there will be major military action in the next few days. Putin will go slow. The objectives listed are long term. The West has largely abandoned Ukraine so why bother. The real military threat are the missile batteries in Poland and Romania. The most he will do is clean up the contact line with an artillery/sniper no go area. As for the stupid Americans. What were their objectives? If you believe Michael Hudson as I do, it was to disconnect Western Europe–particularly Germany–from Russia as much as possible and increase dependence on the US. Well the stupid humanities majors who aren’t smart enough to understand circular error probable have succeeded. NS2 is kaput and they are moving forward with sanctions and everyone is scared of the aggressive, provocative, reckless, barbaric Russians. Hardly failure. Major military action by Putin seems to be somebody’s wet dream, so we can all watch the mighty Russians crush the sissy West with their unmatched, unstoppable weapons. It ain’t gonna happened. We will see who’s right in the days and weeks ahead.
It seems like saker was right after all.
Hearty congratulations to Maria Zakharova!
“EU sanctions Russia’s defense head, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, RT’s editor-in-chief”
‘Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was similarly penalized, said to be a “central figure” of Russian “government propaganda,” who “promoted the deployment of Russian forces in Ukraine.” ‘
Sergey Lavrov must be disappointed having being superseded by a member of his staff for the high honour.
https://www.rt.com/russia/550400-eu-sanctions-shoigu-ministers/
Lake Baikal for you this summer, Ms Zakharova!
I don’t think the Russians will act first. In a manner of speaking.
The Ukies are doing *exactly* what is going to bite them in the ass.
They are keeping their troops in LNDR, continuing artillery actions, and even attempting diversionary attacks inside Russia.
All Putin has to do is give it a few days – while the Ukies continue their “assault”, and then declare self-defense measures.
If the Ukies actually retreated, and whined out loud – that would be far more effective.
But are *literally* playing the role of the Fool – right into Putin’s calculus.
Well, they have had the best ‘exceptional’ policy and strategic advice that western fiat-money can buy.
What do you expect?
Recognition by Kiev of the LDNR, negotiations of the leaders of the republics – Ukraine (Ukraine – a republic, Art. 5 of the Ukrainian Constitution), Donetsk and Luhansk
question saker…. again today Israel has attacked Syrian positions resulting in deaths… what is the threshhold whereby Russia will respond? Thanks for your work!
Good question as this is puzzling after 12 years of war in Syria. Would there be more chance of Russia providing Syria with better weapons to stop these ongoing attacks by Israel now that NATO show it cannot do much about Ukraine?