I hear contradictory reports about the situation of Donetsk airport ranging from “airport 90% in Novorussian hands” to “airport taken”. Whatever may be the case, I believe that there is a pretty good chance that the Novorussians are correct when they say that airport will be taken this week-end. I took a quick look at the militarymaps.info site to get the latest report and this is what I saw:
There are combats taking place right now (5PM Moscow time) but most of the airport is in Novorussian hands. Furthermore, the Ukies have been pushed back just barely enough to make it very hard, if not impossible, for them to resupply their buddies at the airport. In fact, Novorussian soldiers interviewed in the Russian social media say that every time the Ukies try to send in a resupply convoy it gets destroyed. The AngloZionists are also apparently preparing for the loss of the airport: they are currently discussing the imposition of more sanctions on Russia is the airport falls to the Novorussians. Very stupid and yet oh so typical of these arrogant and clueless bureaucrats.
But the really interesting thing in all this is the Ukie behavior. Try to make sense of that:
What the Donetsk airport reveals about the Ukrainian forces
For *months* now the Ukie forces at the airport have been resisting in very hard conditions, often completely surrounded and very rarely resupplied. The Novorussians have offered them innumerable times to do what most other Junta forces did: leave through a corridor. But the folks at the airport refused. Sure, the (previously) ultra-modern Sergei Prokofiev Donetsk airport gave them a lot of very strong buildings and plenty of underground tunnels and facilities to hide, but their conditions there were not made much easier by that: they have been shelled, submitted to sniper fire, attacked by special commandos and basically starved and one can only imagine their morale considering that the chances for victory or even evacuation were close to zero. And yet they resisted with a fierce determination. According to one Novorussian source, over 1000 Ukies have already died in and around this airport.
Why? Why did they resist that way?
Did that airport really have such a strategic meaning?
The answer is no, not in the least. One silly notion was the the Ukies were holding on to the airport to prevent the Russians from using it to land their forces in Donetsk. This is laughable for several reasons. First, the Russians can land a fully mechanized airborne division anywhere, they don’t need an airport for that. Second, if the Russian military wanted to take that airport, it could do that in a few hours (more about that later). But most importantly, why in the world would the Russian bother landing in a contested airport when they could land in Lugansk or even simply drive from the border?! So no, the control of this airport does nothing to prevent a mythical Russian invasion.
Does the airport have some other strategic meaning? Does it allow to control Donetsk maybe?
The answer again is, no, not at all. In fact, if we look at what the Ukies have actually been doing from that airport we come to the most baffling “mystery” of it all: for months now the Ukies at the airport have submitted the city of Donetsk to completely random and indiscriminate fire. The kid of fire which kills civilians and destroys buildings, but which will have exactly zero impact on the Novorussian Armed Forces (NAF). And when I say zero I really mean zero. Let me explain.
The Ukies do not have the reconnaissance/intelligence capabilities to track the movements of NAF units inside Donetsk. Nor do they have correctors which could correct artillery fire. Furthermore, while the Junta Repression Forces (JRF) forces to the northwest of the airport can, maybe, provider fire support to the Ukies in the airport, the artillery in the airport itself is useless because the NAF forces are too close for that kind of artillery to be of much use. Besides, the JRF have a few (2?) tanks and mortars to do that. So the only possible use for the Ukie forces at the airport is to try to terrorize the people of Donetsk. This is simply mind-blowing, but it appears that 1000 or so Ukies were killed in months of heavy fighting for the sole purpose of killing civilians. Yes, it does sound absolutely crazy, but that is because it is absolutely crazy.
Now, it is true that the Ukie “Minister of Defense”, Valerii Geletei, is an incompetent clown. A former cop turned state security official turned military (literally overnight), he is the guy who claims that Russia used nukes in Lugansk, the guy who “signed” his pledge of service with a closed pen and the guy who has just shown WW2 era ammo as proof of a Russian invasion. He is hated and despised even by the Ukies. I an see that guy giving the order to “keep killing civilians until all of you are dead”, but why in the world are the Ukies at the airport following such an idiotic order?
Finally, consider that one of the few good aspects of an otherwise very controversial ceasefire was precisely to freeze the conflict more or less along the current line of contact and get any surrounded units out with no more blood spilled. And several Ukies units used this chance to get out of some rather desperate looking situation. The JRF even unilaterally withdrew from some contested villages. Except for the crazies at the airport who, instead of getting the hell out of Dodge, decided to dig in, stay and keep on terrorizing civilians.
I might be mistaken here, and I would appreciate any insights into this from you, but the only explanation I have for the apparently insane behavior is that these Ukies have been terminally brainwashed. They are like the SS in 1945 who screamed “Heil Hitler” while standing in front of a Soviet firing squad. Just like the SS, these guys apparently believe that their “honor is called loyalty” and they are apparently willing to fight to their last breath for the opportunity to terrorize civilians. Those Ukrainians who fought for Saur Mogila at least could tell themselves that they died in a battle for the control of the critically important southern edge of Novorussia. But to die for the Donetsk airport is either to die for nothing, or to die for the capability to kill civilians. Crazy and scary stuff.
What the Donetsk airport reveals about the Novorussian forces
There is another thing about this airport which strikes me as important. For months the Novorussians could not take it. Granted, this was a tough objective to seize and one could even argue that the NAF was stretched thin by more important combats elsewhere – both arguments are true – but still that does not explain why they could not take that airport.
There is one fact which civilians are always unaware of and which even military people often fail to realize: all military forces are good when they are winning. Let’s me explain: when a battle starts and, say, side A gets the upper hand and begins beating or pursuing side B, the actual performance of side A is almost always good. It is exceedingly rare for a military force to show incompetence, poor training or make mistakes while engaged in the pursuit of a retreating enemy. This also means that you cannot judge the effectiveness of a force by seeing how it performed in a battle it won. The key criterion to measure the combat effectiveness of a military force (from the foot solider up to the commander) is whether it can turn the tide, whether it can fight well while retreating, whether it can take a severe beating and then successfully mount a counter-attack. That is something only a truly effective force can do.
I think of the Afghan insurgents who showed superb capabilities against the Soviet military (especially the Tadjiks in the north). Everybody had assumed that as soon as the last Soviet solider would leave the insurgents would simply enter Kabul in a matter of hours. It took them three years!
Urban offensive operations are one of the most difficult tasks any military force can be given and even a force which performs superbly in the countryside can completely fail in an urban environment, especially against a determined defender.
The NAF did turn the tide and from a situation where the JRF almost surrounded Donetsk and cut off Donetsk from Lugansk. The NAF very skillfully used the fact that the JRF was “hugging the roads” to let them in, then surround them, then cut them off and then destroy them. But this was defensive operation. Furthermore, they got *a lot* of help from Russia including not only “voentorg”, but also direct fire support from across the Russian border. Then the Ukies ran. Their retreat was a total disaster, a botched and chaotic retreat in which the JRF truly showed how poor of a military force it was. But we must not mistake the military incompetence of the Ukies for a proof that the NAF is a very capable force on the offensive. The fact is that we don’t know how good the NAF would be in an offensive operation, especially against a determined defender. The case of the Donetsk airport is rather unique and does not prove that the NAF could not do well, but it should at the very least give some pause and reasons to think to those who believe that if not for the ceasefire the NAF would have liberated Mariupol or the rest of Novorussia. Furthermore, if we accept the argument often made by the Novorussians that they could not get the needed forces to the airport because they were stretched thin and needed these forces in other directions, then what does it tell us about what would happen of the NAF indeed did advance on several fronts as it appeared to be doing just before the ceasefire was signed? Do those who today deplore that Mariupol was not take realize that all the best units of the NAF had already been allocated to this task and that they were all far away from the rest of Novorussia? To those who are so upset about the ceasefire I have a basic question:
If all the best NAF forces were allocated to the battle for Mariupol, what NAF forces would have remained available in case of a Ukie attack from the north? IF that had happened how “thin” would the NAF forces around Donetsk and Lugansk have been?
I know that I will not get an answer to those who have accepted as indisputable the thesis that the NAF could have taken Mariupol and freed the rest of Novorussia (nevermind those who believe that the NAF could have taken Kiev). For them, the botched Ukie retreat from Novorussia is a clear proof that the Ukie military was finished and that total victory was at hand. And nevermind the Donetsk airport.
History cannot be re-written and we shall never know for sure. But as long as one can make a plausible argument that the ceasefire was signed just about at the perfect time for NAF – at the peak of its success – then there is no need to assume that all those who are not categorically opposed to that ceasefire are all traitors, agents of Surkov or any other kind of nasty nonsense which the hurray-patriots have been spewing on those who do not share their opinion. In my opinion the battle for the Donetsk airport clearly shows that the NAF was already stretched thin and that it is far more skilled in rural defensive operations than in offensive urban ones..
The Saker
As often stated, the hold-out are not Uke’s at all. Rather they are Polish or other foreigners. They must/need to escape or die. If they are to die, their identify must be obscured to the point of creating plausible denial by NATO/EU. We should know soon enough. Thanks.
I thought it was rotation there
So people would be in and out and supplies were plenty
It is a little bit of topic, but I like the quite development behind the door and the boys are starting to have the headache about their “Honest job” at the stock market and easy money for them……….
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/jpmorgan-discovers-further-cyber-security-issues/?_php=true&_type=blogs&emc=edit_th_20141003&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=39772990&_r=0#
Can we assume that the NAF has been training for urban warfare offensive, and that when the Donetsk Airport is taken, that Mariupol will be taken next?
What should happen and still hasn’t is that the other cities should start to revolt. I hope this day is near because it has become very hard for me to read about the brutal deaths of innocent people daily by the hand of indifferent and murderous thugs.
@Anonymous:As often stated, the hold-out are not Uke’s at all. Rather they are Polish or other foreigners. They must/need to escape or die.
They will die. But they had the chance to walk away just like other JRF and they did not. So are they brainwashed too?
@the pug:Can we assume that the NAF has been training for urban warfare offensive, and that when the Donetsk Airport is taken, that Mariupol will be taken next?
No. First the ceasefire is being broken since day 1 – by both sides – but at least major offensive operation have been put on hold. Even at the Donetsk airport it is undeniable that the Ukies provoked the Novorussians so they are getting karma now. But taking Mapiupol means mounting a sustained offense far away from key towns. I don’t see the point and I don’t think that they will do it but then, this civil war has surprised me so often and has proven me wrong so often that I would not exclude anything as “impossible” at this point :-)
Cheers,
The Saker
One of the main financiers of the N W O speak about his / their / plans
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/world/europe/mikhail-khodorkovsky-ex-oil-tycoon-plans-to-lead-political-movement.html?emc=edit_th_20141003&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=39772990&_r=0
Those who complain that the ceasefire was a major betrayal seem to ignore the fact that the ceasefire itself was major victory for Novorussiya independence. The Kiev regime basically conceded that they had lost sovereignty over most of the Donbas region and that the people of Lughansk and Donetz had won their autonomy. This was a victory worthy of celebration.
It seems strange that this victory remains publicly unacknowledged either in Russia or the west. I can see why Kiev is silent since it must be deeply humiliating to Poroshenko that his punitive expedition to the east ended in such complete failure.
runden The taking of the airport at no small cost will mean very little if the Russians do not re-institute the Voentorg. There are now young volunteers for the NAF who cannot be supplied. The Russian position, one might charitably call ambiguous to the outside observer, will come back to bite them. Putin might be playing 11 dimensional chess and certainly he has complexities in the evaluation of this situation but I have to agree with the pessimists on his position. Finance capitalism and the Washington neocons don’t work in the grey areas. While Putin does massage situations expertly and will end up ahead in the long run (if he survives) he really was in a position of strength here and could have shortened the suffering enormously. I sincerely hope it is my analysis that is the miscalculation and not Putin’s.
“Why? Why did they resist that way?” you asked?
Simply because they are not Ukies. They are foreign mercenaries and must not fall in the hands of NAF, but rather die.
If they fall in the hand of the NAF it will be another political disaster for those EU foreign countries.
If they are hard core (neo)nazis, or that’s the core of the group, I guess you’re right that they’re just “insane fanatics”…but one thing I thought about is, that could there be some “communications problems” here – maybe this group deeply distrusts all the communications from both/all sides by now, and thinks that sitting tight is the least bad option untill…?
Anonymous 15:51
The article states
“He eventually refashioned himself as a reformed robber baron now committed to freedom and rule of law, but when he challenged Mr. Putin’s chokehold on Russian society, he was arrested in 2003 by armed officers who stormed aboard his private plane.”
Putin made a deal with the oligarchs. They could keep their ill-gotten gains if they paid their taxes and kept out of politics. My understanding is that Khodorkovsky did neither.
I believe that his prison sentence means he won’t be eligible to stand personally for 10 (18?) years. However, if a pliant successor to Putin came on the scene such laws could be changed. His ideas of freedom and rule of law are what you would expect for one of the 0.1%.
I will not be at all surprised if at NAF’s final taking of the Donetsk airport it is discovered those rats are Right Sector/ Azov battalion /Ihor Kolomoyskyi’s funded boys…and they are too coward to be discovered
Btw: The commanders who gave the orders for the atrocities are known
Russian investigators know names of Ukrainian commanders performing criminal orders
[R]ussia’s Investigations Committee knows the names of commanders of Ukrainian Armed Forces units who perform criminal orders of the Ukrainian state leaders, Vladimir Markin, the official spokesman for the committee said on Wednesday.
“Today we have the names of many commanders of army units, as well as militants of the Right Sector and the National Guard who are performing criminal orders of the Ukrainian military and state leadership,” he said.
Case against Ihor Kolomoyskyi
Basmanny district court of Moscow arrested in absentia the Governor of east-central Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk Region Ihor Kolomoyskyi in July. Russian law enforcement agencies accuse Kolomoyskyi of masterminding murders and use of banned ways and methods of warfare.[.]
– – – – – – –
A couple yards/meters of hemp hung from the branch of a tall oak tree should do nicely. A war crimes tribunal is such a waste!
AM
Saker,
I think that people also forget that the ceasefire allowed people that had sought refugee in Russia to go back to East Ukraine and for those who stayed, to reclaim back some normalcy.
And, since the ceasefire, Russia has sent two humanitarian convoys.
Erika
That fact that the same militia commanders who turned Ilovaisk, Motorola and Givi, are now cleaning out the airport. These two are who turned the tide. It tells us that the militia’s Donetsk forces were there to hold until the best units could be applied.
Saker, your analysis about the tactical and strategic skills and capacities of the Militia are correct.
Putin timed the ceasefire perfectly because he had his generals on the ground analyzing every component and creating every cauldron.
The GRU was there with Strelkov from the beginning. They have not looked through field glasses and periscopes from Rostov. They have had the feel of every battle. They worked the war exactly as if Russian troops alone were doing the fighting. They were not going to let defeat occur, and they were not going to expand beyond that which was very manageable.
Of course, the Ukie incompetence was very helpful. But you get the war that comes at you. Novorossiya was a good workout for the General Staff. Now, they are ready for NATO’s next idiotic move. The troops have been bled, the smell of cordite is in the air, and tactics and logistics are all worked out.
The airport was Soviet nuclear shelter deep. It was a major fortress. Early reports show Motorola is using kerosene to burn the tunnels and hiding places. 50 guys have died in the last few days. They don’t want more losses.
And the reports are the Ukies there are Poles and other foreigners. We’ll see when it is all over.
So the only possible use for the Ukie forces at the airport is to try to terrorize the people of Donetsk. This is simply mind-blowing, but it appears that 1000 or so Ukies were killed in months of heavy fighting for the sole purpose of killing civilians. Yes, it does sound absolutely crazy, but that is because it is absolutely crazy.
Yesterday, I was following a live podcast from Donetsk that was being posted on Twitter in English. At one point (I think after the missiles hit the Red Cross), when many had lost electricity, those who still had it suddenly found that on their TV and radios there was nothing but looped messages from Ukrainians (don’t know who it might have been) broadcasting death threats against civilians.
Absolutely chilling. And it shows the frothing *hate* that the Ukies have against anything that they deem to be Russian. Mindless hate is what drives them, blindly, into committing these tactical and strategic blunders over and over again.
We can only hope that cooler heads never prevail over at Ukie Central.
“anonymous”
What has impressed me is the plain continuous courage displayed by the Novorussian Partisans. They have fought while outnumbered and outarmed.
They have defended well, and are learning the much more difficult skill of offense.
They are unpaid volunteers. The brief glimpses provided by the short videos display their fine character.
Within the undemocratic ex-Republic of the United States, we citizens must find the way toward a peaceful, prosperous, and free, world by removing the fangs of the American/Anglo/Zionist Oligarchs.
For the Partisans of Novorussia, this quote is appropriate: “Never in the field of human conflict was so much owed by so many to so few” Churchill
Peter J. Antonsen
The NAF appear to have made little use of artillery and MLRS in the attacks. I have seen one antiquated anti-tank gun and a few tanks in use. The rest of the time they were using just RPGs, anti-tank rockets and heavy machine guns in addition to their personal weapons.
Maybe the plan was to draw a massive amount of NAF resources into action around the airport, opening up gaps elsewhere. That seems not to have happened.
Maybe the plan is just to maximize death and destruction as Saker suggested. Who knows what goes on in the Ukies’ mind.
Here is an interesting video concerning the battle for the airport
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zv39Lc5oSVs&feature=youtu.be
The latest map at Col. Cassad shows a nice cauldron brewing around Debal’tseve – midway between Donetsk and Lugansk. it would be nice to have the lid closed and that brought to the boil too.
However, there is another large coal-fired power station near the front line. If the Ukies did have to retreat, I suspect they would destroy that, or use it as a refuge requiring the NAF to attack and destroy it.
Neutral observer here. I thought it was accepted as fact that the airports were used by Poroshenko to send the most disloyal troops so they wouldn’t get the chance to overthrow him later? What happened to the reports last week that 2,500 right sector were sent to the airport? I can see both sides covering up any true casualty number. On the other hand, how many defenders managed to make it out of those tunnels to Ukrainian held Peski to the west? Why haven’t we heard anything about those tunnels being interdicted with backhoes to the west of the airport which was often under rebel control? I don’t believe the reports of kerosene doing any damage to defenders today because, if the tunnels were intact, these troops would mostly be safe in Peski now after retreating west overnight.
Not enough is being said about tunnel warfare. I have to assume most of the thousands of Ukr soldiers who were there last week, escaped through the tunnels to the wests.
And more, what about all the little cauldrons that remain from the original ones, including the big one that started them all?
My theory is that they remain so family members of the Ukrainian soldiers can assume their relatives are still alive and fighting when they really deserted to spend the war in Russia because they really didn’t want to fight and die over the federalism issue, which is what the US has (states’ rights).
The Russians could even see to it that the relatives are getting messages “from the front” saying “I’m defending just outside Amvrosievsk” all the time. That way they won’t be branded cowards and traitors. This is the only reason I can think of why the military maps show all those little kettles that would otherwise use up a lot of rebel forces to keep surrounded.
Except there is one other possible reason for these “cauldron remnants”. Maybe some of them include American forces and Russian forces are used to keep them surrounded but, upon agreement between Washington and Moscow, not liquidated.
The thing is, we’re not being told the truth here about most of what is going on.
Mariupol was clearly a really big sanctions threat or Akhmetov made a deal of some sort. But, for Russia, this war doesn’t seem to have been about land but about defeating Maidan males who were willing to go fight to the death on territory of Russia’s chosing. The rest of eastern Ukraine can politically turn 180 degrees overnight if there are no units left to fight there. So this is not about land.
The airport was not a fight for the airport. It was, ostensibly, a fight by one side to get rid of fanatical fighters on the other side. That is why it is an important question whether the really effective defenders of the airport were able to get out via the tunnels last night so they can fight with the same vigor over Kharkov or Odessa later on.
There is precious little journalism going on anywhere on all of this.
Porky says that, but for the cease fire, the Kiev regime would have lost half of “Ukraine”. That is what knowledgeable people on both sides have said, if support kept coming.
Was the airport force regular military, or one of the Neo-Nazi battalions?
Whoever it was, “madness” is an unsatisfactory explanation for their fanatical resistance. It was far beyond any military utility, and so I am tempted to believe it was politically motivated. There are reports (from Leonid Baranov) that the airport force included a large percentage of foreign mercs, including Americans. If they were mercs, they had no great motivation to die for a criminal “cause”, and though their exposure would result in a PR catastrophe it wasn’t worth dying for.
I suggest something along the lines of (and this is pure blue sky spec) that they were regular (foreign) military, protecting a high value target such as a foreign high ranking military officer, or even high level CIA types that had manged to get themselves trapped there. Look for an inexplicable prisoner exchange
Erebus
Sounds like Donetsk is the Ukie’s Battle of Stalingrad. Another similarity is the Fascist component.
The taking of the airport at no small cost will mean very little if the Russians do not re-institute the Voentorg. There are now young volunteers for the NAF who cannot be supplied. The Russian position, one might charitably call ambiguous to the outside observer, will come back to bite them. Putin might be playing 11 dimensional chess and certainly he has complexities in the evaluation of this situation but I have to agree with the pessimists on his position. Finance capitalism and the Washington neocons don’t work in the grey areas. While Putin does massage situations expertly and will end up ahead in the long run (if he survives) he really was in a position of strength here and could have shortened the suffering enormously. I sincerely hope it is my analysis that is the miscalculation and not Putin’s.
Fighting in an urban environment is very expensive in manpower and equipment for both sides. NAF simply has not had the resources to take the airport until recently. Think about it. NAF have at best two to three light divisions with some tanks and a fair amount of arty. They have a huge area to defend and secure and the reality is even 10 light or even heavy divisions would be hard pressed to hold the lines. The disadvantage of defense is your enemy can concentrate his forces in one area and hit you hard, at the same time you have to husband your resources and defend your entire area and lines. That is why defacto NAF don’t have complete lines around Novorossiya and the orks don’t either. Neither side has the manpower for that. As for the cauldrons, the old saying holds, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, five times, ten times, shame on me. ‘Nough said on that subject.
As for the airport itself, remember back some months ago when Battalion Vostok came to Donetsk for a hero’s welcome? A few days later they attacked the lightly defended, so they thought, airport and got the mortal puppy snot kicked out of themselves. Insult to injury, an OSCE arranged truce and evacuation of the wounded under a flag of truce drove right in to a right sector ambush and all the wounded and escorts were killed, bar none.
Donetsk has taken a horrific beating from the orks, both from airport and every other quadrant of the compass. I can not help but notice that the orkwest is deathly silent about this. However with the relative, and I use that term very sarcastically, stand down for the truce NAF has the forces to take the airport and they have taken it. We will see the result tomorrow or later tonight.
As for Mariupol, my information tells me that the NAF forces who went down there were not much more than a reconnaissance in force. Anyone can look at the map and understand that Mariupol is a cauldron waiting to happen for NAF. A long thin corridor down to a major offensive operation? Any Junior Lutanant in training would understand that this is a no-no. However, the very appearance of NAF forces on the ‘heights’ overlooking Mariupol and the orks ran like mad, the traffic jams were legendary, a mixture of civilian and military vehicles all running south and west in some instances 10 klicks long.
Now, the tiny cauldron forming between Donetsk and Lugansk by the orks is foolish. Tons of units there in a thin narrow corridor from the ork ‘lines’. Remember the Junior Lutanant? He’s shaking his head in wonderment.
As a final blast at the orks, here’s the link to The Map.
http://militarymaps.info/
Notice the huge number of ork units in and around Mariupol and the massive ork forces between the two major cities of Novorossiya. Think and elucidate on these two situations.
It is the time to experiment what
Kiev Junta did to Russian people of Odessa. If mercenaries are so determined to barricade in the underground tunnels than pure tons of gasoline, and chloroform and set on fire. CO2 and CCl4 are very heavy and goes down to the bottom. The Gas mask doesn’t work because there isn’t left any Oxygen to breathe. Something similar happen with Germans in Dresden. These who failed to evacuate the bomb shelters quickly died by CO2 poisoning. What goes around comes around.
Saker keeps trying to rationalize Russia’s behavior, and with the pretty sad info coming in during last few days (links bellow) its quite a travesty to hear “ceasefire was signed just about at the perfect time for NAF”, its 100% ridiculous.
Its ironic Saker is the same as those “Putin bashers” whom he so despises, he is just the other side of the same coin – Saker keeps defending Russia’s interests (which lately often goes against Novorossia’s). Ironic fact is, “sliv” (betrayal) theory proponents actually are closer to the truth than Russia’s apologists.
P.S. I do support Russia in general, but its bending-over trying to avoid sanctions at any cost (including pretty much sacrificing Novorossia) is getting extreme lately, its rather sad.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1824087.html
http://odivizion.ru/gorlovka-peregovoryi/
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1825218.html
Anonymous said: “the hold-out are not Uke’s at all. Rather they are Polish or other foreigners. They must/need to escape or die.”
If they are right sector or other paid mercenaries from the likes of Kolomoisky then they know they will be killed by the NAF as the airfield is taken or would have been killed in the corridor that was offered ‘by mistake’. If so better to kill as many moskals first and hope for relief from the Ukies. That’s my reading of it anyway.
The NAF are undoubtedly good. They turned the tables before, when the situation was desperate, and they can’t be getting any less good.
There’s something about this Donetsk airport, and it’s not only about its senseless holding by obviously fanatic troops, but also about the EU/USA. Why should they want to impose more sanctions on Russia should Kiev lose the Donetsk airport? It’s been reduced to a pile of rubble no plane can land on, so? I’d get their worries if it was Mariupol, but there?
Maybe it’s not so much brainwashing as it is the following:
Could it be many of these guys had their lives // families threatened by the Ukie junta if they did no fight to the bitter end?
Wouldn’t surprise me at all.
Farflungstar
Zio Occupied AmeriKa
One could also wonder at what potential secrets could be discovered in the airport recording systems and control tower…
My impression is that all ceasefire 1 and 2 had been for the sake of taking time regrouping and continuing
No end to this war until Ukiès quit or novorossia quits
So airport is a convinient place to continue without too many casualties from Uks but hopefully as much as possible for donbass
This war will never stop unless there will be forces in ukraine that will consider real peace with donbass and Russia
Right now those patriots are fighting for there lands that to be cleaned from Russians in donbass
That’s why they are in airport shooting civilians to all satisfaction of nazies in ukraine
And even in EU those like Merkel
The objective of the Ukie forces is to reduce civilians either by killing them or causing them to flee. Eastern Ukraine is desired for its potential Natural Gas resources and farmland ownership by Monsanto and other Corporate interests.
I think the prolonged occupation of the airport has a lot to do with the hardness of the target itself. An extremely hardened complex of buildings, high points for snipers, tunnels for shelter, all surrounded by open fields (possibly mined). Would be hard to advance on this no doubt.
From vassal state, Canada.
German former chancellor Schroeder has pleaded during the Russia Day in Germany that EU sanctions against Russia should be lifted immediately.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/schroder-stop-sanctions-we-need-russia/
Kind regards,
Dutch
While I realize this site has become “all Ukraine, all the time”…you might want to note the back-peddling on Syria from David Ignatius @ WAPO today — as well as Biden — blaming “US Allies in the ME” (all but one who shall not be named) for their “over-zealous” approach to funding terrorists to take-out Assad. Oh boy. Now we’re cooking. Blaming Bandar-Bush for all the fuckery in Syria providing weapons and training to Al-Nusra. Hi-ho. These ass-wipes really think Americans are that stupid. Who knows. Maybe we are. But not mentioning Mossad or Langley is such a hilarious piece of tavistock BS — that I can’t believe they can say any of this shit without a laugh-track. Didn’t we see McCain arm-in-arm with the same rebels Biden and Ignatius are now blaspheming? So, we’re to believe McCain was not scripted with marching orders by the same zio-trash fuck-tards who’ve been directing Bandar (and his Qatari kin) to foment shit in Syria and to fuck with Putin? The #JSIL team. Same ones who’ve been funding, training and directing ISIL-ISIS-IS???
Hope to see them all strung-up on the nearest lamppost. Soon. Upside down.
Oh. Almost forgot. FUCK ISRAEL.
You state a good case for the proposition that it is/was crazy for the Ukies to fight and die to keep the airport. Can you make an equally good case for the proposition that it is crazy for the NAF to fight and die to take the airport?
Mozgovoi has started his own funding drive for Donbas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NLRKDdERGak
(live links are below the video)
The list required by Alexei Brain ( – Mozgovoi) for children’s boarding schools: http://spasidonbass.ru/#deti
To assist the new Russia: http://spasidonbass.ru/make-donations/
Help Fund the new Russia and the Donbas: http://spasidonbass.ru
Dear Saker,
Indeed, the proof is in tasting the pudding.
And yet, while your analysis shows that they could not have done better, there is another side of the events, which is the disputes and arrangements between the Jewish Ukranians oligarchs and the 5th column inside Russia.
It is presented in the website cassad.net which is a must read, including all the links referred to the war between the AZs and the Eurasianists inside the Kremlin. It very much seems that Surkov is a man with strong influence in the GRU, the Central Bank and key elements of the Medvedev government. Well, surely nothing of this is news to you.
Yakunin, ceo of Russian Railways and an Eurasianist, in an interview published by ItarTass september 28, expresseses his dismay to the fact that the monetarists are controlling the Russian economy, stoking Putin’s plan of developing the industry. As for the CP, would you read their website, you discover that no long ago, before Crimea, they were pleading for a vote of non confidence on Medvedev, for systematic policies of destroying Russia, armed forces, industrial basis, corruption, etc etc.
So, Putin’s eurasianist plan and the recovery of Russian independence and development, has indeed, deeply rooted in the Medvedev government, the inimical and actively working the AZs program already implemented by Yeltsin. But now it is wartime.
Kind regards,
Patagonian
Dear Saker,
Indeed, the proof is in tasting the pudding.
And yet, while your analysis shows that they could not have done better, there is another side of the events, which is the disputes and arrangements between the Jewish Ukranians oligarchs and the 5th column inside Russia.
It is presented in the website cassad.net which is a must read, including all the links referred to the war between the AZs and the Eurasianists inside the Kremlin. It very much seems that Surkov is a man with strong influence in the GRU, the Central Bank and key elements of the Medvedev government. Well, surely nothing of this is news to you.
Yakunin, ceo of Russian Railways and an Eurasianist, in an interview published by ItarTass september 28, expresseses his dismay to the fact that the monetarists are controlling the Russian economy, stoking Putin’s plan of developing the industry. As for the CP, would you read their website, you discover that no long ago, before Crimea, they were pleading for a vote of non confidence on Medvedev, for systematic policies of destroying Russia, armed forces, industrial basis, corruption, etc etc.
So, Putin’s eurasianist plan and the recovery of Russian independence and development, has indeed, deeply rooted in the Medvedev government, the inimical and actively working the AZs program already implemented by Yeltsin. But now it is wartime.
Kind regards,
Patagonian
Brazil Election.
It looks like the Hegemon is going to lose this one again. Rousseff looks to be ahead and probable winner. Very important that she continue or the BRICS could have been weakened.
@Mats,
Don’t count your chickens before they hatch: Do you remember the bullshit the BBC put out a few days before the independence referendum? I.e that the independence camp was ahead in the polls? (even though those bastards knew full well that independence side was over 5% point shy of victory).
Never trust any speculation in the Propaganda Stream Media. Wait until the election is final. BTW Dilma Rouseff is a below average leader imposed on the Brazilian people by Lula da Silva, so don’t expect Brazil to do great even if she wins (granted that her pentacostal opponent, Marina da Silva, is a 5th columnist and would tank Brazil). C
The taking of the airport at no small cost will mean very little if the Russians do not re-institute the Voentorg. There are now young volunteers for the NAF who cannot be supplied. The Russian position, one might charitably call ambiguous to the outside observer, will come back to bite them. Putin might be playing 11 dimensional chess and certainly he has complexities in the evaluation of this situation but I have to agree with the pessimists on his position. Finance capitalism and the Washington neocons don’t work in the grey areas. While Putin does massage situations expertly and will end up ahead in the long run (if he survives) he really was in a position of strength here and could have shortened the suffering enormously. I sincerely hope it is my analysis that is the miscalculation and not Putin’s.
Off topic: MH17
New article supports the suspicion that the Malaysian plane was shot down in an attempt to murder Putin.
Saker, if you think that the content of the article posted here is sufficiently interesting, I would appreciate it if you could consider publishing a properly translated English version of this document.
Google translate works to a certain extent, but it has its limits.
Instead of paying off gas debts, settle accounts with Gazprom and get ready for a brutal winter,
Porky is playing possum with —-Expectations of resuming all-out war?
Porky said
Ukraine needs the truce to raise army combat readiness
”Ukraine has transferred its economy to military footing and will provide everything possible for the Ukrainian army to be stronger, President Petro Poroshenko says”
LVIV, October 3. /TASS/. “Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Friday the truce in Ukraine should be used to raise the country’s combat readiness.
“We should effectively use the regime of cessation of fire to improve defense installations and raise our army’s combat readiness,” Poroshenko said during a working trip to the west Ukrainian city of Lviv.
He said “Ukraine has transferred its economy to military footing and will provide everything possible for the Ukrainian army to be stronger”.
= = = = = =
Combat readiness! Is this the purpose of the IMF loans?
Christine Lagarde, SVP, you need to make that call.
AM
At the close of the American Constitutional Convention in 1787, Patriot Benjamin Franklin was Asked “Well, Doctor, what have we got—a Republic or a Monarchy?”
“A Republic, IF YOU CAN KEEP IT.”
I think this applies to military strategy now in Ukraine. The junta in Kiev CITY declared they were the new government. Making declarations is easy. Taking the offensive and capturing an objective is a concentrated effort focused only on the day of victory. Thereafter, there is an additional responsibility of KEEPING it, and allocating resources to defend the possession. It applies to USSR (and USA)in Afghanistan, US in Iraq, and Yatz and Poroshenko. There are lessons to be learned on all sides. Novorossiya will consolidate, and inevitably expand. How it does so, will be as important as the battles. If NAF attacks the defensive positions of UKRs in reverse, the conditions are also reversed. The calculation of what defenders are willing to die for vs. what the imported attackers want is critical to success. The ATO operation was designed to discourage nationalist voting and hold a quick election to be able to “legally” sell off resources to IMF. The method attempted was ethnic cleansing to manipulate the vote. Unless Kharkov and other areas determine their direction soon, their options may become status quo for a long period.
I am not familiar with the current ratio of NAF:UAF troops in the area but I presume they are 30.000:50.000 soldiers. We all know that NAF has bigger motivation and better mobility which gives them capabilities to form cauldrons and that can be an easy tool to cut short frontline in various locations.
But given the hypothetical gaines in rural areas as you say, can they draw out enough of the UAF forces from towns they’ve entrenched themselves to eventually improve their chances when urban street by street fights commence?
I would hate them to relive the moments when they needed to pull back from Donetsk/Mariupol highway they controlled in it’s entirety just to lose it because of the lack of troops to hold it down.
Saker
I ve been following your posts regularly all this time that I remain silent .
Your analysis has a point . Some notes out of my simplistic mind :
For NAF the airport is important for the following reasons :
1) Stop firing from the Ukrops against civil areas
2( If the airport is completely surrounded the takeover eliminates a pocket into NAF lines , if not it closes the line eliminating the “nail”
3) The civil population can be reliieved , at least in part , even knowing that the Ukies have been eliminated in a symbolic site like the airport.A kind of sweet vengeance for this poor people . That doesnt mean the random bombing – carnage of the population will stop but at least it becomes more difficult without the airport Ukrop observing capabilities.
4) most of all the airport has become a target of high communicative value . Something like the Mill in Stalingrad . It is eventually a trap where NAF is supposed to give a substantial blood price . A sacrifice that they cannot avoid now , even if it is not a really important target in military terms.
Anyway my simplistic opinion , take it or leave it , is that the “gravity centers” of Ukie interest are the Debalcevo and the Telmanovo areas . Areas where the opportunity of counterattack of the junta are good and could produce the desired result for the porkoshenkos . They defended those sites for more than a month now and they have concentrated forces there. The map speaks for itself .
I suppose that the NAF leaders understand the danger so the attack on the airport does not consume the forces needed for a swift victory while thining the other important lines of defence .
Watching many videos from the airport ( some of them translated and subtitled by wintersodom – many thanks – ) anyone with a simple military turn can understand the problems and difficulties . Some of these are well underlined in your post.
The Greek Supporter of the other day
Saker,
while this was an interesting article of the “i told you so” character, and while I find the armchair generals screaming about why “we didnt take X” (whether that X is Mariopol, Kiev or Knin) annoying, i must say that I am disapointed that people are still focused on what happened before the cease fire. What happened happened, but the cruicial thing now is what will happen going forward.
As the House Stark saying goes, winter is comming and with it, the opportunity to do something about this conflict. I think the folks in the NR need to figure out where they are going from now because eventually the Ukies will have rearmed suffficiently to think they can restart the fighting.
Saker, Maybe the airport guys must not be taken alive because they don’t speak Russian or Ukrainian. Just imagine dozens of English-speaking only guys get caught there, and exposed on TV ?
If the involvment of a foreign country with troops from them are caught here, this could give a 100% valid argument for Russia to officially intervene here. It could also turn the global opinion against the Atlantic block.
So this is imho also a possibility.
“They will die. But they had the chance to walk away just like other JRF and they did not. So are they brainwashed too?”
-Perhaps they are just disciplined mercenaries following orders and the oligarchy has ordered them to hold. Or they are disciplined mercenaries and since they are from Poland they are also brainwashed.. Poland as a nation is very anti-Russian.
Isn’t Donetsk airport important for resupplying the Ukrainian army in the frontline areas?
I seem to recall several ukie airplanes being shotdown, carrying both soldiers and supplies.
“Can we assume that the NAF has been training for urban warfare offensive, and that when the Donetsk Airport is taken, that Mariupol will be taken next?”
-I do not think NAF can take Mariupol.. There must be 10000 ukis there now, and the town is fortified.. If there was a re-offensive I do not even think Mariupol would be targetted, NAF would just surrounded in the city and move on… Taking it now is probably impossible.
Fascism is a psychiatric disease, suffered by many Europeans, and not a political orientation.
Fascism is both murderous and suicidal.
The American expression “suicide by cop” applies here, except for fascists it is suicide by Russian.
Преведено на српски / Translated into Serbian:
http://cirilizovano.blogspot.com/2014/10/blog-post_85.html
I was amazed the article didn’t mention the Luhansk airport. That did play a role in the government effort to encircle the city.
Airports are a kind of forts that are easily to defend and hard to conquer. So from the government perspective it is good to keep them in enemy territory as it keeps a lot of their adversaries occupied and they can be a great help when they have an offensive. On the other hand the NAF would need a lot of fighters to capture the airport. It could better use those fighters elsewhere. Besides they could always hope that some day the frontline would move so much that it would become clear for the troops at the airport that their position was hopeless.
At the moment things have changed for the NAF side. On the one hand they need less troops elsewhere as there is less fighting. On the other hand it seems likely that the frontline will stay rather stable for a long time so there is now more urgency to get rid of this pain in the ***.
Finally there is the question how a fall of the airport will be handled in the peace talks. Maybe the claim of Kolomoyski that the airport would be exchanged for some territory more south is an indication.
A very entertaining music video with a special guest:
Mother Russia From Alaska To The Kremlin! Great Song! – YouTube
I’m reading on Tymchuk’s blog that the attacks on the Donetsk airport have been repelled with heavy losses.
This is the classic “both can’t be right” situation.
Dear Saker,
I have been following closely Novorussyia through your blog and the Syrian situation on various sites plus tv channels.The similarities on the ground are legion.Of course I am no military expert but I cannot not draw parallel between the two.I am sure that if you followed the battles of Syria(ANNa news have been very precise in military terms following battle with SAA)you would also note the analogy between the pseudo rebels in Syria and JRF.Both have been dramatically brainwashed and fight pushed by unlimited hatred.Both when loosing indiscriminately fire at civilians with all their strength and weapons.It seems to me that both act like their master is doing on the international scene:Because it is rapidly declining it uses extraordinary brutality through its own Janissary to inflict maximum pain on its enemies.And most importantly it is always losing the war it started..like the ukies or the syrian criminals.
BCH
The Lost Plan
The airport had no importance in a case of a Russian invasion but a huge one in the case of a covert NATO-US special force support in the heat of the battle in any place. Call it the Tripoli plan. Local forces enter the town. The create a lot of smoke but are unable to gain any significant ground. Now SF comes into play lands on the airport in the dawn from there use surprise and the cover of darkness to strike the command infrastructure and assassinate the important leaders. Before the next sun rises everyone is out and the victory is transferred to the local military.
Q
Ihor Kolomoyskyi is quite the citizen. Dual holder citizenship under Ukie law is forbidden but for Ihor triple citizenship is not.
Ihor holds 3 passports: Ukraine, Israel and Cyprus.
Well of course…the descendants of the oppressed became that which was despised.
= = = = = =
There is a name for guys like Harry whose comment @ MoA is below..but this is a polite forum. I have not read him here. He went over to MoA and posted this critique of Mr. Saker’s analysis.
Either missing in his comprehension or is courage deprived.
. . . .:
“OT about Ukraine, no recent thread so posting here:
Russia is breaking Novorossia’s hands to enforce very humiliating ceasefire conditions (links with lots of current info right from the sources, if you read Russian). I’m actually surprised, I was always saying Russia cares about its interests first and foremost, but thought they cant just openly sacrifice Novorossia. I was wrong, the backstabbing I see now is the worst since Iranians felt it on their skin. Russia despite its tough public rhetoric is literally kneeling behind the curtains trying to avoid sanctions and confrontation. Sure, 100% betrayal is impossible for multiple reasons, but it seems Novorossia might be getting 80% of that or so. Sad days indeed.
http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2014/10/what-battle-for-donetsk-airport-reveals.html
Saker keeps trying to rationalize Russia’s behavior, and with the pretty sad info coming in during last few days (links bellow) its quite a travesty to hear “ceasefire was signed just about at the perfect time for NAF”, its 100% ridiculous.
Its ironic Saker is the same as those “Putin bashers” whom he so despises, he is just the other side of the same coin – Saker keeps defending Russia’s interests (which lately often goes against Novorossia’s). Ironic fact is, “sliv” (betrayal) theory proponents actually are closer to the truth than Russia’s apologists.
P.S. I do support Russia in general, but its bending-over trying to avoid sanctions at any cost (including pretty much sacrificing Novorossia) is getting extreme lately, its rather sad.
http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/1824087.html
Posted by: Harry | Oct 3, 2014 1:48:08 PM | 17
Links doesnt go through, delete spaces:
o divizion.ru/gorlovka-peregovoryi/
c olonelcassad.livejournal.com/1825218.html
Posted by: Harry | Oct 3, 2014 1:50:58 PM | 18
. . . . . . .
There we have it from the little c.
saker: dont forget about georgie and possible reescalation of conflict.
eastern ukraine is important supply route. dont forget turkish tanks are on border with syria and baku is their closest ally. The Kurds will not fight for anything but Kurdistan.
now take all this in equasion:
syria, kurdistan, divided iraq, iran, saudi, israel turkey egypt, hizbalah, georgia, armenia, azerestan
and try to figure what is going to happen.
russia takes west ukr and georgia, allies w armenia and reinforce in karabah and around?
turkey enters syria and push kurds back to nord iraq? iran take shia part and cleans kurds in the nord.
Israel takes Lebanon, Saudis and Egypt probably stay put
something bigger is preparing.. and Donetsk airport matters
if conflict escalates , Putin will push Ukrainians behind line Kharkov , Chisinau he is no full.
The latter part of the article provided some good insight on some of the military risks of a Novorussian attack on Mariupol and beyond.
There are also serious political risks involved:
Collateral damage among Ukrainian civilians.
Destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Hunger and disease among Ukrainian civilians.
Increasing hostility of local population.
Unease among Russian citizens.
The ‘hardware shop’ runs out of old Soviet equipment, needs to supply newer – obviously Russian – stuff.
Russian soldiers don’t come home due to ‘training accidents’.
Donbass self-defense discourse less and less plausible.
Attacks seen as overt or semi-overt Russian invasion.
Increased unease among Russian citizens.
Deliberate targeting of Ukrainian civilians by Gladio/SAS/Delta Force death squads, to be blamed on Russia.
Loss of support for Russia among Western dissidents.
Partial loss of support among BRICS nations.
Eurasian cooperation stalled.
Even more sanctions
Economic depression within Russia.
Overt military support of Ukraine by NATO.
I like your expression: “arrogant and clueless bureaucrats” I just quietly remind you that those “arrogant and clueless bureaucrats” won the cold war and destroyed the Soviet Union, if you look at the map, your former eastern European satellites are all NATO members, the Baltic states too. You also lost Georgia and Moldova and you loosing influence to China in the former Asian soviet republics. Most importantly you lost Ukraine, true, you got Crimea and some parts of Donbass – destroyed and without the middle class people – but you lost Ukraine, your troops used to stand in Berlin now you fighting for Donetsk… All what left for you is your pitiful Eurasian union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, what an empire…
About the importance of the airport, it has no strategic importance for anyone, its destroyed and its too close to the front to be used for military purpose, the Ukrainian forces were defending it because they can, they are not cut off and they are in very good position to hold the airport. It also occupies a lot of NAF resource, if they getting slaughtered in Donetsk they can not move against Mariupol. Also it is important to cause as much regular Russian military causality as possible, you and the Russian media can deny it but it is clear that the tide was not turned by the NAF, they would loose, it was the RU army direct invasion which pushed back the Ukrainian army. To stop Russian invasion you need to make Russian people aware of what going on in Donbass, you need to expose the lies, the regime trying to hide the military death but they only can do if the numbers are limited.
The economic problems, inflation, weak rubel, recession with the low oil prices makes it complicated for Putin, this war is not supported by most Russian, the Russian home front will not accept heavy Russian regular army casualties.
Airports must have some symbolic strategic value — look how hard the Ukies held on to Luhansk airport, which is in the middle of nowhere and was also long ago rendered useless for aviation.
BUT – airports are easy to hold. Big buildings, well fortified, built to serve as bunkers when necessary. Comfortable to live in for extended periods (as compared to small dugouts). Good tall buildings or at least a control tower, surrounded by flat open ground where it’s easy to see attackers approaching. Still, to kill 1000 men just to hold it, for the sake of holding it, is beyond the “let’s not make their sacrifice be in vain” type of thinking.
I don’t believe the possible presence of foreigners can be an issue. After all the offered deal has always been, leave the artillery and tanks, and you can just walk away. They were not going to make them show ID before leaving. NOW it is too late. If any survived the roof collapse, they will be coming out on stretchers or handcuffed.
http://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/10/03/more-on-the-airport-and-whatever-else-comes-my-way/
Footage here of DPR driving through the airport…so it must be substantially theirs.
if turkey rolls with tanks into syria, putin has to take georgia to ensure supply to armenia, but first has to secure (east) ukraine
Interesting little site, that’s looked at every photo of destroyed armour and counted who lost how many.
http://lostarmour.info/armour/
Dear Saker, Everyone who is interested in what is really happening in the Ukraine is in your debt. Your blog is becoming ‘the place to go’ to find out what is happening in various war zones.
As for the Donetsk airport: Like you I scanned the place with google earth, watched a video of NAF infantry sniffing through the block of buildings south of the main terminal looking for stragglers, finding only a couple of dead guardsmen with their faces covered with flies. The men moved as though they were fairly–though not entirely– sure the enemy was gone. My sense is that the majority of the defenders may have pulled out and that the hard–and apparently costly–fighting over the last several days represented a rear guard action. If not, and if the last route out really was sealed yesterday, the remainder are in deep trouble. Unless, of course, the junta–which has reconcentrated substantial forces north and east of Donetsk–is looking for an excuse to launch an attack.
I agree with you that the junta’s last ditch defense of the airport is hard to understand. The theory that mercenaries were/are the core defenders is, as far as I know, unproven.
In comparing the junta’s forces with the militia: Napoleon said “The moral is to the material as three to one” and the militia have have far better morale as well as more sensible leadership. But while the militias have been stalwart in defense (some junta units have as well) the war has been dominated by artillery. There apparently hasn’t been much of the sustained house to house fighting that often occurs when sizeable cities come under attack. The junta strategy has been to terrorize the civilian population by random shelling and to destroy their economic infrastructure so they’ll flee to Russia.
The unwillingness of junta forces to get out of their vehicles has worked well for the militia defending towns and cities and setting up fire guantlets for enemy troops in pockets. But, as you say, they lose this advantage when the enemy is in unflanked defensive positions. Even Hezbollah made expensive errors switching to urban offense and were glad enough to let the enemy core ‘escape’ both from Qusair city and from Qubaud.
NAF’s offensive south, undertaken by little more than a raiding party was premature. If they had reduced the major southern pocket first and attacked with greater force, the panic factor might have led to the fall of Mariupal. But by truce time the enemy had regained composure and the chance of overunning the city was gone.
But though I agree with you on most things, perticularly that the acid test of military competence is found in conduct of a retreat-I must disagree with your defense of Russia’s having forcing a truce when it did. Everything I can grasp leads me to endorse Cossad who writes that “..the Minsk collusion effectively saved the junta from a complete military rout.”
Well, we’ll see what we’ll see and I thank you once more for helping us see so much more clearly.
Dear Saker,
In the vk site of Oleg Tsarev, is posted that tomorrow 70 NF prisoners are to be executed by the ukrs. This should be posted.
Thanks
Patagonian
Perfect summary: “So the only possible use for the Ukie forces at the airport is to try to terrorize the people of Donetsk.”
Dear Saker,
In the vk site of Oleg Tsarev, is posted that tomorrow 70 NF prisoners are to be executed by the ukrs. This should be posted.
Thanks
Patagonian
Mariupol? I don’t think so. That fast unexpected move west was into an area with very little Ukie presence. It successfully drew line all the way to the border, leaving no southern flank exposed. It conveniently, though probably coincidentally, covers the gas pipeline to Crimea, supplies to there now being totally in NR hands.
Mariupol itself is in some kind of Sektor hands, I think Pravy(?). Civilians have been “volunteered” into digging anti-tank ditches and “volunteered” out of any support for NR. It doesn’t seem to have a lot of army presence, but attacking it would open up a northern flank, not a good move. On the other hand, Kharkiv would probably welcome being liberated from those roving gangs, and those regularly go elsewhere to make trouble, so it could be done when they’re not “home”.
Here is an English translation of Mozgovoi’s video appeal for donations (translated by the wonderful Kazzura):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pBiCMiG1SI
All who are concerned/upset about the closing of the Russian “voentorg” (and it *has* closed – no more Russian help to NAF, many troops are still without winter clothing) might want to consider watching and donating.
M K Bhadrakumar says Russia has essentially won in Ukraine / Donbass and with Europe, and that Obama / US / Nato (with new Nato chief) is in effect conceding the loss:
http://blogs.rediff.com/mkbhadrakumar/2014/10/03/europe-nato-reengage-russia/
Mr Duncan from Liberia ‘Patient Zero’ who brought ebola to the USA in Texas, spent 7 hours in the Brussels, Belgium airport, and some time in Washington DC, before heading on to Texas … his 3 aeroplanes he may have infected, are continuing to fly with more passengers in them … in general there are inadequate precautions being taken about what may be rapidly spreading death … If that is correct we all may be in a Donbass equivalent shortly
Astonishing video on the Donetsk militia offensive to re-take the Donetsk airport.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2D8KqW3jXHs
Cassad and others are saying the Russians have shut down the Voentorg. Is that true? Why would they do that?
“Anonymous said…
As often stated, the hold-out are not Uke’s at all. Rather they are Polish or other foreigners. They must/need to escape or die. If they are to die, their identify must be obscured to the point of creating plausible denial by NATO/EU. We should know soon enough. Thanks.”
Agree with this. Probably the Special forces HQ for a few countries.
One of the many big lies of this war is the little green men being crucial. Till late august I guess they were outnumbered by US and other advisers. Perhaps there is some MH17 evidence there too.
The other big secret I reckon is that the EU/US have known for some months just how seriously this whole thing has blown up on them. In particular, supporting a regime that has been merrily killing its own countrymen is disastrous for western leaders, and explains a lot of current actions. Attempts to deny US/EU involvement in the maidan or overthrow of Yanukovych, deny any support of the anti-terrorist campaign, absolute silence on Crimea (now accepted as enormously fortunate that Poroshenko is not in control there), little green man syndrome to counter what may yet be dug up in Donetsk airport, praise for Poroshenko’s “single handed” fight with the evil Russia. Anything to distract from the blood on their hands.
So the real motivation for the ceasefire is the US/EU desperation to get out including removal of personnel, cutting/denying links to Ukraine and I guess promising Putin whatever he wants if he lets them have an exit. Donetsk and MH17 could be hugely embarrassing.
Talking of lies: http://russia-insider.com/en/tv_politics_media_watch/2014/10/03/01-43-21pm/top_german_editor_cia_bribing_journalists